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Microeconomic Simulation Models for Public Policy Analysis, Volume 1: Distributional Impacts is a collection of papers presented at a conference of the same title held in Washington, D.C. in March 1978. This collection discusses extended micro data models for first-round distributional analysis, models that incorporate behavioral responses to the policies being stimulated, models of macroeconomics, and models that have sectorial or regional impacts. One paper explains that increasing support for the negative income tax scheme can result in bigger increase in the budgetary cost of the program i

We illustrate the use of nonparametnc quantile regression in examining the impacts of social programs on the distributions of noncategorical outcome measures. We apply the method to earnings effects and income effects in four evaluations of employment and training programs for welfare recipients. The distributional impact estimates yield pictures of program impacts that are different from those yielded by simple mean impact estimates, especially for income. The distributional impact estimates also assist in differentiating the effects of programs using similar activities but organizing those activities to achieve different goals. Accurately estimating effects at the tail of a distribution remains a problem.

This paper is a summary of the major findings of a large research project on the distributional impacts of government policies in Switzerland. First, the budget incidence of the entire public sector, including the social security system, is presented. The results indicate a substantial redistribution from upper-income to lower-income classes. The effect is largely due to public spending rather than to taxation. Second, the distributional impacts of public policy in selected policy areas—transportation, social security, agriculture, and health—are investigated. Redistribution is pro the poor for transportation and health, and pro the rich for agriculture. A mixed picture is found for social security. Within groups of the same marital status or sex, redistribution is pro the poor. Between these groups, it is pro the rich. Third, the distributional impacts of changes in selected macroeconomic variables are analyzed. The major conclusion is that macroeconomic growth policies, if successful, lead to a reduced equality of income distribution.

This paper examines the potential distributional impacts of demographic change, particularly population ageing, and changes to labour force participation that are projected to arise over the next 50 years. The approach involves calibration weighting of the Treasury's microsimulation model, Taxwell, based on the New Zealand Household Economic Survey. The weights are adjusted for each projection year to ensure that a range of population aggregates (by age and gender) match the projected values provided by Statistics New Zealand. Measures of income inequality and poverty, along with the incidence of income tax, Goods and Services Tax and a number of components of government spending (namely health and education) across age groups, are obtained. The results suggest that population ageing and expected changes in labour force participation, in isolation, do not have a significant impact on population-level measures of income inequality.

Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to present a new methodology for evaluating the distributional impacts of climate policy. This methodology builds directly on the framework introduced by Jorgenson, Slesnick, and Wilcoxen (1992), but generalizes it by including leisure time, as well as goods and services, in the measure of household welfare. We provide detailed results for 244 different types of households distinguished by demographic characteristics. In addition, we evaluate the overall impact of a cap-and-trade system, as represented in Energy Modeling Forum 22. While there is a wide range of outcomes for different demographic groups, the impact on economic welfare is regressive and generally negative but relatively small.

Historically speaking, social security systems are a recent development. At the beginning of the twentieth century, there was limited state social intervention in the developed world, and even less in Latin America. A remarkable expansion of "social rights" took place in the second half of the century. By the 1970s most Latin American countries had set up at least some form of old-age protection, while others had already developed a wide welfare network. Public social expenditures grew to represent over 20 percent of the gross domestic product in a number of countries, including Argentina.

The top quartile of the income distribution accounts for almost half of the pandemic-related decline in aggregate consumption, with expenditure for this group falling much more than income. In contrast, the bottom quartile of the income distribution has seen the smallest spending cuts and the largest earnings drop but their total incomes have fallen by much less because of the increase in government benefits. The decline in consumers' spending preceded the introduction of the lockdown, whose partial lifting has triggered a stronger recovery in sectors with a lower contact rate. The largest spending contractions are concentrated in the most affluent regions. These conclusions are based on detailed high-frequency transaction data on spending, earnings and income from a large fintech company in the United Kingdom.

The top quartile of the income distribution accounts for almost half of the pandemic-related decline in aggregate consumption, with expenditure for this group falling much more than income. In contrast, the bottom quartile of the income distribution has seen the smallest spending cuts and the largest earnings drop but their total incomes have fallen by much less because of the increase in government benefits. The decline in consumers' spending preceded the introduction of the lockdown, whose partial lifting has triggered a stronger recovery in sectors with a lower contact rate. The largest spending contractions are concentrated in the most affluent regions. These conclusions are based on detailed high-frequency transaction data on spending, earnings and income from a large fintech company in the United Kingdom.

This thesis consists of three independent essays, unified by the common theme of the distributional impacts of government. The first paper estimates the price elasticity of demand for pharmaceuticals amongst high-income older people in Australia. It exploits a natural experiment by which some people gained entitlement to a price reduction through the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card (CSHC). The preferred model is a nonlinear Instrumental Variable (IV) difference-in-difference regression, estimated on repeated cross sectional survey data using the Generalised Method of Moments. No significant evidence is found for endogenous card take-up, and so cross-sectional estimates are also considered. Taking all of the results and possible sources of bias into account, the 'headline' estimate is -0.1, implying that quantity demanded is not highly responsive to price. The elasticity estimate is a key input into the second paper which analyses the distributional impact of the CSHC. I consider the trade-off between moral hazard and risk pooling. There have been few previous attempts internationally to address this trade-off empirically for any health insurance scheme. The utility gain through risk-pooling is found to be negligible. However, the deadweight loss through moral hazard may be considerable. I also use an illustrative model to demonstrate the possible effects of the CSHC on inter-temporal savings behaviour. While the CSHC may induce some people to save, it may have the opposite effect on others. The net impact was not determined. The third paper estimates the Australian public sector wage premium. It includes a detailed critical review of the methods available to address this issue. The chosen approach is a quasi-differenced panel data model, estimated by nonlinear IV, which has many advantages over other methods and has not been used before for this topic. I find a positive average public sector wage premium for both sexes. The best estimates are 10.0% for men and 7.1% for women. The estimate for men is ...