Suchergebnisse

Mestrado em Economia e Estudos Europeus ; In order to evaluate the trade potential of the Cohesion Countries (CC) with the remaining EU11 countries in the threshold of the eastern enlargement of the European Union, as well as with the CC relations with the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC), we use a gravity model. The manufacturing trade potential related to the twenty-five countries involved in the eastern enlargement of the EU15 is hence calculated from 1999 to 2002. Special attention is paid to this enlargement's effect on the CC within this approach. Relatively to previous studies with this same methodological approach, this dissertation is, to the best of our knowledge, the first combining a trade potential based on the gravity model with the inclusion of a variable related to the Commodity Composition of Trade (CCT) in terms of manufactures. Several CCT variables were tested for the available data, taking into consideration high levels of disaggregation. Finally, having in consideration the latest academic debate in course, we analysed and tested all the methodological contributions recently proposed in the literature as regards to the improvement of the econometric specification of the gravity model, namely making use of the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator. The refinement of the explanatory variables considered in the analysis, specifically those related to the distance measurement, as well as the introduction of new variables, were also taken into consideration. ; Com o intuito de avaliar o potencial de comércio existente entre os Países da Coesão e os restantes países membros da UE15 no limiar do alargamento desta última a leste e, de igual forma, entre os PC e os denominados como Países da Europa Central e Oriental (PECO), fazemos uso de um modelo gravitacional. Assim, o potencial de comércio em termos de manufacturas relacionado com os vinte e cinco países envolvidos no processo do alargamento a Leste da UE15 foi calculado, nesta dissertação, no que diz respeito ao período que medeia entre 1999 e 2002. Neste contexto, especial atenção foi colocada nos efeitos específicos deste alargamento nos Países da Coesão. Relativamente aos estudos prévios que fazem uso desta mesma abordagem metodológica, esta dissertação é, segundo a nossa percepção, a primeira a combinar o cálculo do potencial de comércio, tendo por base um modelo gravitacional, com a inclusão, neste último, de uma variável relativa à Composição do Comércio em Manufacturas (CCM). Vários indicadores da CCM foram, a este respeito, testados a partir dos dados disponíveis e fazendo uso de níveis detalhados de decomposição. Finalmente, aprofundar-se-á o debate em curso, quer em termos empíricos, quer em termos académicos, através da análise e teste das mais recentes contribuições propostas no que diz respeito à melhoria da especificação econométrica do modelo gravitacional, nomeadamente com recurso ao Pseudo-estimador de Máxima Verosimilhança do Tipo Poisson. O refinamento das variáveis explicativas consideradas na análise, especificamente aquelas relacionadas com a mensuração da variável distância, e a introdução de novas variáveis foram igualmente abordadas.

Measures the degree of correspondence between a country's export vector of manufactures and a trade partner's import vector to help explain bilateral trade intensity. Uses these to produce an index of export potential in manufactures for 34 developing countries, and an index showing the potential to replace LDC imports presently originating from developed countries. The commodity composition limits possibilities of substituting LDC imports. (Abstract amended)

Abstract
China's growing prominence as a trade superpower has placed competitive pressure on manufacturing industries in Brazil, while simultaneously bolstering demand for its commodities. I investigate the effects of this so-called manufactures-for-commodities boom on Brazilian birth outcomes from 2000 to 2010. Exploiting exogenous variation in patterns of trade growth with China across different regions within Brazil, I find that both import and export growth led to higher birth weights for babies, and lower infant mortality rates. I also find that negative import shocks reduced fertility rates across all age groups for women, suggesting that selectivity in births induced by negative income shocks, combined with concentration of household resources on the children that are born led to better infant health outcomes. Additional evidence is consistent with income effects playing a role in explaining the results, while ruling out better provision of healthcare and changes to household composition as mechanisms. I also explore changes in trade-induced pollution levels and social assistance programs as a potential mechanism. The findings indicate that increased import and export growth can improve infant health, highlighting another potential benefit from trade liberalization.

World exports of manufactures have risen rapidly in the last decade—indeed faster than world manufacturing production (chart 1). There were checks in 1951–53 and in 1958; even so the yearly rate of rise since 1950 has been 9 per cent in value, 7 1/2 per cent in volume. The pattern of this trade has been changing, particularly in the last five years: markets have grown faster in the industrial countries than in the less developed parts of the world (chart 2). Since 1954, in value terms, the exports of manufactures to the United States and to OEEC countries have been rising at an average rate of 17 per cent and 10 per cent a year respectively; to Latin America and the sterling area, only 3 1/2 per cent and 4 1/2 per cent.