Suchergebnisse

We examine environmental factors as potential determinants of international migration. We distinguish between unexpected short-run factors, captured by natural disasters, as well as long-run climate change and climate variability. Building on a simple neo-classical model we use a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows for the period 1960-2000, the time and dyadic dimensions of which additionally allow us to control for numerous time-varying and time invariant factors. As a whole, we find little direct impact of climatic change on international migration in the medium to long run across our entire sample. Using the rate of urbanization as a proxy for internal migration we find strong evidence that natural disasters beget greater flows of migrants to urban environs.

INTRODUCTION: Environmental factors such as wind, temperature, humidity, and sun exposure are known to affect influenza and viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) transmissions. COVID-19 is a new pandemic with very little information available about its transmission and association with environmental factors. The goal of this paper is to explore the association of environmental factors on daily incidence rate, mortality rate, and recoveries of COVID-19. METHODS: The environmental data for humidity, temperature, wind, and sun exposure were recorded from metrological websites and COVID-19 data such as the daily incidence rate, death rate, and daily recovery were extracted from the government's official website available to the general public. The analysis for each outcome was adjusted for factors such as lock down status, nationwide events, and the number of daily tests performed. Analysis was completed with negative binominal regression log link using generalised linear modelling. RESULTS: Daily temperature, sun exposure, wind, and humidity were not significantly associated with daily incidence rate. Temperature and nationwide social gatherings, although non-significant, showed trends towards a higher chance of incidence. An increase in the number of daily testing was significantly associated with higher COVID-19 incidences (effect size ranged from 2.17–9.96). No factors were significantly associated with daily death rates. Except for the province of Balochistan, a lower daily temperature was associated with a significantly higher daily recovery rate. DISCUSSION: Environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, wind, and daily sun exposure were not consistently associated with COVID-19 incidence, death rates, or recovery. More policing about precautionary measures and ensuring diagnostic testing and accuracy are needed.

Natürliche und klimatische Faktoren hatten immer einen bedeutenden Einfluß auf die historische Entwicklung Rußlands. Ein Großteil der Unterschiede zwischen Rußland und Westeuropa läßt sich aus der unterschiedlichen Bodenfruchtbarkeit, den Ernteerträgen und den daraus folgenden agrikulturellen Arbeitszyklen erklären. Der vorliegende Beitrag versucht zu zeigen, daß auch die komplexeren gesellschaftlichen Verhältnisse Rußlands wie Eigentumsform, Produktionsweise und Staatsform durch die 'ökologischen' Faktoren determiniert sind. (pmb)

The analysis of the influence of climatic factors on fluctuations in the flow of the Ob River is carried out. Based on the analysis of long-term series of annual and seasonal runoff of the Ob and differential integral curves, the phases of change in river flow ar e revealed. Spatial features of changes in precipitation and air temperature in different periods of water content have been studied. Mathematical and statistical processing of cartographic images made it possible to identify areas of the predominant influence of various climatic factors on the volume of river flow. The areas of the basin where climatic fluctuations had the greatest impact on the change in the Ob River flow in 1930–2017 have been identified. One of these areas is confined to the basin of the Tobol River, the second is adjacent to the Ob and Yenisei watershed. It is shown that the increase in winter water runoff is largely due to fluctuations in precipitation and air temperature. It is impossible to completely exclude the impact of permafrost degradation on the volume of Ob runoff, but it is obvious this factor is not significant.

The transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the severity of the related disease (COVID-19) are influenced by a large number of factors. This study aimed to investigate the correlation of COVID-19 case and death rates with possible causal climatological and sociodemographic factors for the March to May 2020 (first wave) period in a worldwide scale by statistically processing data for over one hundred countries. The weather parameters considered herein were air temperature, relative humidity, cumulative precipitation, and cloud cover, while sociodemographic factors included population density, median age, and government measures in response to the pandemic. The results of this study indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation between average atmospheric temperature and the COVID-19 case and death rates, with chi-square test p-values in the 0.001–0.02 range. Regarding sociodemographic factors, there is an even stronger dependence of the case and death rates on the population median age (p = 0.0006–0.0012). Multivariate linear regression analysis using Lasso and the forward stepwise approach revealed that the median age ranks first in importance among the examined variables, followed by the temperature and the delays in taking first governmental measures or issuing stay-at-home orders.

Malaria is a major health problem in many tropical and subtropical countries and in the south of Iran. In this study, due to the importance of the disease in Sistan and Baluchestan province, the influence of temperature, humidity, and rainfall on malaria has been evaluated in areas with a high incidence of malaria. Malaria incidence data were inquired from the Province Health Authority, and climatic variables were inquired from the Bureau of Meteorology from 2000 to 2012 and were analyzed on a monthly basis. Changes in incidence of malaria with climatic factors were analyzed by negative binomial regression by Stata 11, and the correlations were calculated with Minitab15 for determining the potential impact of meteorological variables with and without lags on malaria transmission. The incidence of malaria had a significant positive correlation with the average, minimum, and maximum monthly temperatures and a negative correlation with rainfall and low humidity (<60%). However, humidity >60% had a positive impact on incidence; as in the town of Chabahar after adjusting variables such as rainfall and temperature; every one percent increase in humidity caused a 4% increase in malaria incidence in the same month and a significant 6% increase in the next month. Temperature and humidity over 60% are effective climate parameters in the incidence of malaria. These factors should be considered in planning for controlling and preventing malaria.

In the 9th century BC, Assyrians based in northern Iraq started a relentless process of expansion that within two centuries would see them controlling most of the ancient Near East. Traditional explanations for the decline of the Neo-Assyrian Empire in the 7th century BC have emphasized the role of military conflict, and especially the destruction of the Assyrian capital, Nineveh, by a coalition of Babylonian and Median forces in 612 BC. However, it remains unclear how the Assyrian state, the most powerful military machine of its age and the largest empire the Old World had ever seen up to that time, declined so quickly. In this paper, we highlight two potential factors which may have had some influence upon the Assyrian decline that have not been previously explored. The first is a major increase in the population of the Assyrian heartland area at the dawn of the 7th century BC, which substantially reduced the drought resilience of the region. The second factor is an episode of severe drought affecting large portions of the Near East during the mid-7th century BC. We propose a series of testable hypotheses which detail how the combination of these two factors may have contributed to the development of considerable economic and political instability within the Assyrian Empire, and argue that these demographic and climatic factors played a significant role in its demise.