Abstract Beliefs about climate change divide the U.S. public along party lines more distinctly than hot social issues. Research finds that better-educated or informed respondents are more likely to align with their parties on climate change. This information–elite polarization resembles a process of biased assimilation first described in psychological experiments. In nonexperimental settings, college graduates could be prone to biased assimilation if they more effectively acquire information that supports their beliefs. Recent national and statewide survey data show response patterns consistent with biased assimilation (and biased guessing) contributing to the correlation observed between climate beliefs and knowledge. The survey knowledge questions involve key, uncontroversial observations such as whether the area of late-summer Arctic sea ice has declined, increased, or declined and then recovered to what it was 30 years ago. Correct answers are predicted by education, and some wrong answers (e.g., more ice) have predictors that suggest lack of knowledge. Other wrong answers (e.g., ice recovered) are predicted by political and belief factors instead. Response patterns suggest causality in both directions: science information affecting climate beliefs, but also beliefs affecting the assimilation of science information.
What is climate change? -- Fossil fuels -- Global warming -- Rising sea levels -- Focus on the Greenland ice sheet -- Farming and food -- Habitats and wildlife -- Focus on sea turtles -- Desertification -- Focus on desertification in China -- Extreme weather -- Focus on Hurricane Harvey -- Stopping climate change -- Glossary.
This essay counterpoints two existential threats in our lifetimes—nuclear apocalypse and climate catastrophe—comparing how they have been recorded in historical documents and how they have registered in the American imagination. It surveys non-fiction and fiction, including a few films, to uncover persistent patterns of American denial that may lead—in fact, scientists increasingly believe will lead—to climate apocalypse. Strong historical and thematic similarities exist until, surprisingly and even shockingly, they diverge at their imagined endpoints. My essay turns to examples from the United States' history as a nuclear power. These include governmental suppression of information after the bombing of Hiroshima, willful distortions of how the Cuban Missile Crisis was resolved, and controversial museum exhibitions since 2000. I also analyze American perceptions of climate change, as directly informed by numerous, but flaccid, reports, conferences, and summits on "global warming" that activist youth groups now parody in postings and memes. The essay examines the kind of doom-laden fantasies that I myself once had about the threat of nuclear annihilation. It looks to the worlds of fiction and film for iterations of the same kind of dread and doom. Imaginative projections in fiction include motifs such as "empty cities" with no sense of human responsibility for the absence of people, strong themes of racial disparity, and the exploration of human depravity versus the possibility of cooperation and community. Primary fictional examples of nuclear plots include Cormac McCarthy and Octavia Butler, and the suppressed 1959 racial drama The World, the Flesh, and the Devil, starring Harry Belafonte and Inger Stevens. For cli-fi fiction, the essay touches on similar preoccupations in novels by Butler, Kim Stanley Robinson, and a host of 21st-century others. My topic has renewed urgency in 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine has reintroduced the nuclear threat and forestalled action to slow climate change. But—and this emerges as an important payoff in the essay—nuclear and climate change narratives differ strongly in how we conceive of their endpoints. Despite sporadic fears about terrorists after 9/11, about North Korea, and now about Ukraine, Americans still by and large expect that, absent a true madman (Putin being a chief suspect), nuclear restraint will hold. In contrast, with regard to climate catastrophe, an increasing number of examples in both fact and fiction now expect climate catastrophes that will end humanity but (unlike nuclear winter), not end life on Earth which will remain, and increasingly become, both inventive and fecund. The essay ends with a meditation on the possible, even likely, consequences of expecting, and even accepting, the inevitability of climate apocalypse on a human scale. Archive: Selected 20th and 21st-century American novels, grouped by theme and outcome and cited briefly; a few 20th and 21st-century films; best-selling non-fiction books: Schell's The Fate of the Earth. Weisman's The World Without Us, the History Channel's Life After People, Scranton's We're Doomed, Now What? Wallace-Wells' The Uninhabitable Earth, Rich's Losing Earth and others. Academic books by Nixon, Scranton, Ghosh, Purdy, McClintock, and others.
Afghanistan is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change: rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and increasingly frequent extreme weather events. Currently, Afghanistan is experiencing its worst drought in 27 years, which, compounded with COVID-19 and the economic contraction that followed the takeover of the government by the Taliban in August 2021, has significantly increased livelihood and food insecurity and contributed to a growing humanitarian emergency. Climate change exacerbates the deteriorating conditions for agriculture-based livelihoods and food insecurity. Conflict and the effects of climate change have increased internal displacement and changed migration patterns. High levels of displacement accentuate food and livelihood insecurity and increase the vulnerability of marginalised groups, including women. The effects of climate change may heighten the risk of more frequent and intense local conflicts over land and water and increase tensions over transboundary resources. Conflict has eroded the resilience of communities and local authorities to adapt to climate change and to deal with the current humanitarian crisis. This creates opportunities for elites to manipulate and profit from land and water disputes, with elevated risks for marginalised groups. ; Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Afghanistan ; publishedVersion
In Mongolia, approximately 50 percent of the country's population of3 million lives in the capital city ofUlaanbaatar. Because of rapid urbanization, more than half of Ulaanbaatar today consists of ger areas: large, unplanned settlements that are home to almost 60 percent of the city's population. These low-density settlements lack the most basic services, includ ing solid waste management. Service improvements have been limited due to poor planning, underinvestment, a lack of information, weak accountabilitystructures, corruption and ineffective incentive mechanisms. Irregular service and the illegal dumping of trash in public spaces is a constant complaint among ger-area residents. Open burning that releases short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) and other hazardous pollutants into the atmosphere is common practice. These are threats to public health and the environment, impacting water, soil and air contamination. As a result, the city faces increased green-house gas (GHG) and SLCP emissions.
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This Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet is focused on Myanmar and the series of conflict- and climate-related issues that face the country. The fact sheet offers a range of recommended actions for the international community to address these issues effectively. Myanmar is home to one of the highest concentrations of people vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with 40 per cent of the population residing in low-lying and coastal regions. Following a military takeover in 2021, the establishment of the State Administration Council (SAC) was met with broad popular resistance, retriggering confrontations with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and local anti-junta militias. Conflict has exacerbated the country's vulnerability to climate change and environmental degradation.
Eine dauerhafte Verfügbarkeit ist nicht garantiert und liegt vollumfänglich in den Händen der Herausgeber:innen. Bitte erstellen Sie sich selbständig eine Kopie falls Sie diese Quelle zitieren möchten.
This Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet is focused on Libya and the series of conflict- and climate-related issues that face the country. The fact sheet offers a range of recommended actions for the international community to address these issues effectively. Libya is exposed to a number of climate hazards. In September 2023, Storm Daniel caused severe rainfall and floods, triggering the collapse of two ageing dams in eastern Libya. This left a trail of destruction in the city of Derna and its surrounding areas. Libya is also one of the driest and most water-stressed countries in the world; it is prone to drought and less than two per cent of the country receives enough rain to sustain agriculture. Climate stressors are in turn aggravated by political turmoil, a divided government, protracted conflict and the presence of a plethora of armed groups. These factors, which have contributed to mismanagement, corruption and a lack of good governance, affect efforts to address climate-related risks, including those that may influence peace and security dynamics.
Flooding and droughts significantly disrupt livelihood patterns and food-security and may result in temporary displacement or longer-term migration. Such shocks exacerbate vulnerabilities and weaken the resilience and adaptive capacity of agriculture-dependent communities; they can heighten competition over natural resources, sometimes leading to cattle raiding and communal conflict. Unpredictable annual variation and extreme weather events, like flooding and droughts, affect pastoralist mobility patterns and routes, and farmers' agricultural production. These changes may exacerbate tensions between herders and farmers, often in connection with land, grazing, water and communal conflicts. Female-headed households are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, as most depend on agriculture to sustain their families, and rely on natural resources like firewood and water. Climate-related livestock losses compound ongoing rivalries, increasing the risk of cattle raiding, which can trigger retaliations, communal conflicts, displacement and the growth of new or existing armed groups. ; This fact sheet has been produced by the Climaterelated Peace and Security Risks project, jointly undertaken by NUPI and SIPRI, with funding from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. ; publishedVersion
This study examines climate claims by analyzing fact-checked content from four countries. In addition, it investigates several important aspects of professional fact-checking practices including transparency, accessibility, and the use of corrective sources. Findings of this study indicate that fact-checked climate claims from different countries vary by the aspects of climate change they focus on (e.g., existence, causes, impacts, and solutions), types of claim makers, and levels of accuracy. Furthermore, there are differences in fact-checking practices from the four countries with regard to transparency, accessibility, and the use of corrective sources. Theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.
