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In a 'normal' recession the economy slows down gradually as confidence wanes. Not this time. So as to stop the spread of Coronavirus and prevent our healthcare system being overwhelmed, the government has enforced a lockdown. In so doing it has deliberately slammed the brakes on economic interactions so as to prevent physical interactions between people.

This article models the process of structural transformation and catching-up in a demand-led Southern economy constrained by its balance of payments. Starting from the Sraffian Supermultiplier Model, we model a dual-sector small open economy divided between traditional and modern sectors that interacts with a technologically advanced Northern economy. We propose two (alternative) autonomous elements that define the growth rate of this demand-led economy: government spending and exports. Autonomous government spending plays a central role in stimulating demand, and thus is a source of growth of the modern sector. Productivity adjusts to the growth rate of output, given by the growth rate of autonomous expenditure. Drawing from the Structuralist literature, the technologically laggard Southern economy catches up by absorbing technology from the Northern economy, potentially closing the technology gap. The gap affects the income elasticity of exports, bringing a supply-side mediation to the growth rates in line with the Balance of Payments Constrained Model. We observe that a demand-led government policy plays a central role in structural change, pushing the modern sector to a take-off. Also, the economy is stable in terms of capacity utilisation and modern sector employment.

We investigate how economic growth in a demand-led economy with semi-endogenous productivity growth can be compatible with a stable employment path. Our model uses a Sraffian supermultiplier (SSM), and we endogenize the growth rate of autonomous demand, and semi-endogenize productivity growth. The basic model has a steady state that is consistent with a stable employment rate. Consumption smoothing (between periods of high and low employment) by workers is the mechanism that keeps the growing economy stable. We also introduce a version of the model where the burden for stabilization falls upon government fiscal policy. This also yields a stable growth path, although the parameter restrictions for stability are more demanding in this case.

This paper presents a set of growth and distribution models in developing countries which reflect distinct political economy regimes. These regimes give rise to different institutional frameworks that affect macroeconomic outcomes. We focus on three cases: (1) a pure developmentalist state, (2) conflicting claims between workers and the government, and (3) financialization under a neoliberal coalition. The equilibrium growth rate is defined, following the Keynesian tradition in open economy growth model, by the Balance-of-Payments constraint (Thirlwall, 1979). The paper relies on cumulative causation à la Kaldor in periods in which the depreciation of the real exchange rate raises temporarily the BOP-constrained equilibrium rate of growth. The transition between one equilibrium level of the RER to another allows (under certain conditions) for a process of learning that transforms the income elasticity of exports and hence the BOP-constrained rate of growth in the long run. The model produces a variety of outcomes that help explain the contradictory results reported in the empirical literature associated with different constellations of power and institutions.

On the eve of the Mayoral Elections in the West Midlands, and elections across England, Wales and Scotland, the idea of a basic income is shooting up the political agenda. But is basic income going to be a vote winner, particularly in the so-called 'Red Wall' areas of the country which were so crucial in deciding the last General Election.

We investigate how economic growth in a demand-driven economy with semi-endogenous productivity growth can be compatible with a stable employment path. Our model uses a Sraffian supermultiplier (SSM), and we endogenize the growth rate of autonomous demand, and semi-endogenize productivity growth. The basic model has a steady state that is consistent with a stable employment rate, and in which the growth rate is determined by R&D expenditures. Consumption smoothing (between periods of high and low employment) by workers is the mechanism that ensures that demand keeps up with productivity growth and that the growing economy is stable. We also introduce a version of the model where the burden for stabilization falls upon government fiscal policy. This also yields a stable growth path, although the parameter restrictions for stability are more demanding in this case.

This article explores the link between populism and governance arrangements. Adopting a comparative approach between the West Midlands and Scotland, it utilises novel primary qualitative data alongside official results and demographic statistics. Paying particular attention to the perspectives of Remain voters in "left behind" areas and how they perceive their Leave-voting counterparts, the article finds that despite divergent voting patterns both groups perceived a problematic lack of (regional) political agency. Economic disparities and subnational governance arrangements appear important in explaining discontent in those parts of the UK that have been "left behind" by globalisation. Meaningful devolution will be key in addressing these grievances.

Introduction: great disruptions: the new normal? Recent history has not been kind to Fukuyama's 'end of history' thesis, expounded thirty years ago (Fukuyama, 1989, 1992). Writing back then, with the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the break-up of the Soviet Union, Fukuyama's contention concerned what he saw as the triumph of Western-style liberal-democratic free-market capitalism. Subsequent events have thrown such celebratory claims of the success of global political and economic liberalism into question. The resurgence of Russia, the ascendancy of China's state authoritarianism, and the rise of Islamic fundamentalism are all proof that major ideological contests have far from disappeared. Yet further, over the past two decades or so, disruptions and upheavals within and among the capitalist West itself have revealed the fragility of market-based democracies.

Speaking to the FT from a Westminster café, rather than the gilded rooms of the Treasury, Sajid Javid told UK businesses that they had had three years or more to prepare for leaving the EU so they should be ready for the UK to no longer follow EU rules.The country will no longer be a rule taker.

This report examines the potential economic implications of prolonged trade policy uncertainty associated with the renegotiation period between the UK and EU after Brexit. Specifically, the report focuses on the effects on UK trade and foreign direct investment. We develop a multi-country general equilibrium with UK at its heart.

While the daily death toll of COVID-19 understandably dominates health news, smoking remains theleading causeof preventable death in the UK. As the UK teeters on the edge of Brexit, newly found freedom from EU regulations could be an opportunity for the government to impose even tighter tobacco restrictions. But will it seize the moment?

The UK is no longer a member of the European Union. On 31stJanuary I lost my citizenship of the EU. I awoke on 1stFebruary, confident in the knowledge that, thanks to the misnamed "transition period", nothing had changed –yet.

Europe's major automakers' trade association has called on the European Union toadopt a less restrictive stance on UK auto firms' access to the EU market. The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) –the trade body that represents major EU auto makers –has pressed the EU to "reconsider its position" on the Rules of Origin thatwill be used to decide whether goods will qualify for tariff-free trade, and has warned that elements of the EU's current position are "not in the long-term interests of the EU automotive industry".

Vaccine on the horizon or not, it is difficult for businessto see at present much beyond the Covid with cases still rising and restrictions tightening in much of the developed world, including the UK. The uncertainties around the timing and availability of any vaccine and the timing of any future packages of government support are also unsettling the markers which have in the past week been oscillating between euphoria and renewed sell-offs.

Last week the PM announced his ten-point plan for a 'green industrial revolution' accompanied by £12bn spend, which, the FT suggested, included only £3bn of new money ('Green jobs must materialise ifthe UK is to take the lead in wind power', FT, 21stNovember 2020).Bringing forward the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2035 to 2030, the plan also focussed on boosting hydrogen production through £500m investment, quadrupling offshorewind production, providing £525m for 'clean and micro nuclear' plants, £200m for two carbon capture clusters, making buildings cleaner by installing 600,000 heat pumps every year by 2028 and creating 250,000 new jobs in parts of the UK where the government 'wants to see levelling up',as Business Secretary, Alok Sharma told the BBC.