Asian Business Cycle Synchronisation
In: Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research (HKIMR) Research Paper WP No. 06/2011
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In: Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research (HKIMR) Research Paper WP No. 06/2011
SSRN
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Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to investigate the level of real business cycles synchronisation between the Baltic and the Nordic countries and between the Baltic countries and the euro area. Research methodology – Wavelet analysis was employed to evaluate the level of synchronisation for different periods and time. Quarterly data from 1995 Q2 to 2019 Q4 was used. Findings – We discover the influence of several essential events in economies of the Baltic countries on the synchronisation: accession to the EU in 2004, the introduction of the euro in the Baltic countries and some external shocks. Research limitation – A lack of reliable long-term data from the Baltic countries does not allow performing calculation for other important financial variables. Practical implications – Results of the research are important for forecasting and implementing flexible economic policies of the Baltic countries. Originality/Value – Business cycles synchronisation between the Baltic countries themselves and between the Baltic countries, the Nordic countries and the euro area countries across time and various frequency dimensions was investigated for the first time.
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Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to investigate the level of real business cycles synchronisation between the Baltic and the Nordic countries and between the Baltic countries and the euro area. Research methodology – Wavelet analysis was employed to evaluate the level of synchronisation for different periods and time. Quarterly data from 1995 Q2 to 2019 Q4 was used. Findings – We discover the influence of several essential events in economies of the Baltic countries on the synchronisation: accession to the EU in 2004, the introduction of the euro in the Baltic countries and some external shocks. Research limitation – A lack of reliable long-term data from the Baltic countries does not allow performing calculation for other important financial variables. Practical implications – Results of the research are important for forecasting and implementing flexible economic policies of the Baltic countries. Originality/Value – Business cycles synchronisation between the Baltic countries themselves and between the Baltic countries, the Nordic countries and the euro area countries across time and various frequency dimensions was investigated for the first time.
BASE
Abstract. Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to investigate the level of real business cycles synchronisation between the Baltic and the Nordic countries and between the Baltic countries and the euro area. Research methodology – Wavelet analysis was employed to evaluate the level of synchronisation for different periods and time. Quarterly data from 1995 Q2 to 2019 Q4 was used. Findings – We discover the influence of several essential events in economies of the Baltic countries on the synchronisation: accession to the EU in 2004, the introduction of the euro in the Baltic countries and some external shocks. Research limitation – A lack of reliable long-term data from the Baltic countries does not allow performing calculation for other important financial variables. Practical implications – Results of the research are important for forecasting and implementing flexible economic policies of the Baltic countries. Originality/Value – Business cycles synchronisation between the Baltic countries themselves and between the Baltic countries, the Nordic countries and the euro area countries across time and various frequency dimensions was investigated for the first time.
BASE
Abstract. Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to investigate the level of real business cycles synchronisation between the Baltic and the Nordic countries and between the Baltic countries and the euro area. Research methodology – Wavelet analysis was employed to evaluate the level of synchronisation for different periods and time. Quarterly data from 1995 Q2 to 2019 Q4 was used. Findings – We discover the influence of several essential events in economies of the Baltic countries on the synchronisation: accession to the EU in 2004, the introduction of the euro in the Baltic countries and some external shocks. Research limitation – A lack of reliable long-term data from the Baltic countries does not allow performing calculation for other important financial variables. Practical implications – Results of the research are important for forecasting and implementing flexible economic policies of the Baltic countries. Originality/Value – Business cycles synchronisation between the Baltic countries themselves and between the Baltic countries, the Nordic countries and the euro area countries across time and various frequency dimensions was investigated for the first time.
BASE
Abstract. Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to investigate the level of real business cycles synchronisation between the Baltic and the Nordic countries and between the Baltic countries and the euro area. Research methodology – Wavelet analysis was employed to evaluate the level of synchronisation for different periods and time. Quarterly data from 1995 Q2 to 2019 Q4 was used. Findings – We discover the influence of several essential events in economies of the Baltic countries on the synchronisation: accession to the EU in 2004, the introduction of the euro in the Baltic countries and some external shocks. Research limitation – A lack of reliable long-term data from the Baltic countries does not allow performing calculation for other important financial variables. Practical implications – Results of the research are important for forecasting and implementing flexible economic policies of the Baltic countries. Originality/Value – Business cycles synchronisation between the Baltic countries themselves and between the Baltic countries, the Nordic countries and the euro area countries across time and various frequency dimensions was investigated for the first time.
BASE
Abstract. Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to investigate the level of real business cycles synchronisation between the Baltic and the Nordic countries and between the Baltic countries and the euro area. Research methodology – Wavelet analysis was employed to evaluate the level of synchronisation for different periods and time. Quarterly data from 1995 Q2 to 2019 Q4 was used. Findings – We discover the influence of several essential events in economies of the Baltic countries on the synchronisation: accession to the EU in 2004, the introduction of the euro in the Baltic countries and some external shocks. Research limitation – A lack of reliable long-term data from the Baltic countries does not allow performing calculation for other important financial variables. Practical implications – Results of the research are important for forecasting and implementing flexible economic policies of the Baltic countries. Originality/Value – Business cycles synchronisation between the Baltic countries themselves and between the Baltic countries, the Nordic countries and the euro area countries across time and various frequency dimensions was investigated for the first time.
BASE
In: Journal of Urban and Regional Analysis, Band 3, Heft 2, S. 143-158
This paper examines the degree of synchronicity in business cycles in Greek regions associated with specific spatial and economic characteristics that explain, to a large extent, synchronisation dynamics. We conducted an analysis of almost 30 years' (1980-2008) worth of data at the NUTSIII level (prefectures). We conclude that prefectures are more synchronised with the NUTSII regions than the national level, accentuating a regional (NUTSII) border effect. Moreover, the intensification of the integration process and the free operation of markets seem to diachronically affect the structural characteristics of the Greek regions and the geography of cyclical synchronisation. Our study revealed a two-stage integration in which in the first stage they are detected urbanisation economies, while in the second one localisation economies. The metropolitan region, apart from its prominent position in economic growth, shows a confined level of business synchronisation with the other regions, stressing Greece's pattern of economic and structural dualism.
We assess the business cycle synchronization features of aggregate output in the 27 EU countries using annual data for the period 1970-2009. In particular, we compute measures of synchronisation for private consumption, government spending, gross fixed capital formation, exports and imports. Our results show a rise in synchronization over the full period, and although private consumption is the biggest component of GDP, external demand tends to be a more important determinant of business cycle synchronization. ; FCT
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In: ECB Working Paper No. 1322
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In: ECB Working Paper No. 587
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We provide new evidence on the effects of fiscal policy and government size on pairwise business cycle synchronisation in EMU. A novel time-varying framework is employed to estimate business cycle synchronisation and subsequently a panel approach is used to establish the role of fiscal variables in determining the pairwise synchronisation observations across time. The findings suggest similarities in the size of the public sector, yet divergence in fiscal policy stance, matter for the determination of business cycle synchronisation. Hence, increased fiscal federalism in EMU will contribute to increased business cycle synchronisation. Our results remain robust to different specifications and sub-periods.
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In: Working paper series 587