Suchergebnisse

The Science Budget monitors public funding and performance of State-funded Science & Technology (S&T) and Research & Development (R&D) and aims to capture key performance metrics within the State sector. A total of 37 government departments and agencies who are engaged in some form of S&T or R&D activity in 2010-2011 were surveyed. This report presents findings from the 2011 Science Budget, with the final outturn data for 2010 together with estimates for 2011.

Budgeting is one of the most important activities that is carried out in every government. The efficient allocation of scarce resources to every sector of the economy is done through budgeting. Thus, a budget is a powerful tool and serves as the focal point for key resource decisions. The purpose of the study is to examine the effects of disparities between Government's approved budget and actual outturn, using the Ministry of Food Agriculture (MOFA) as a case study. Also, to determine the effect of budget difference on the performance of the Agricultural sector and compare the disparities between Government's approved budget and actual outturn, with regards to the MOFA and MOH There exist differences between approved budgets and actual amount received by Ministry of Agriculture over the period 2006 to 2016 in Ghana. The budget disparity negatively affects the performance of the Agricultural sector. With regards to comparing the disparities between Government's approved budget and actual outturn, in Agricultural sector and the Health Sector, there were no significant difference

The paper investigates the relationship between Croatian local government budget outturns (i.e., fiscal success) and a chosen set of economic and non-economic determinants. The determinants are divided into four groups: (i) economic, (ii) political, (iii) transparency and (iv) socio-historical. Three main goals are set in the paper. The first is to determine whether there are differences in fiscal success at the different levels of administrative governance (counties, cities and municipalities) in Croatia. Subsequently, the second goal is determining whether such differences are of an economic or non-economic origin and third, whether such differences are robust, meaning do they persist at all three administrative levels. If the differences are not persistent, the question remains as towards what determinants (economic or non-economic) do they diverge. The analysis is conducted on the entire population, i.e. 428 municipalities, 128 cities and 20 counties for the period 2012–2014. Panel data and regression analysis are applied to study the differences and signs of independent variables. The obtained results indicate that differences between local government units in Croatia stem are of an economic and political origin.

This paper synthesizes the findings from a series of case studies on the interaction between the PRSP process and the budget. The five studies, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Tanzania and Vietnam aim to assess the extent to which public finance management and budget allocations reflect the principles and content of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PRSP, hence providing insights into progress in PRS implementation. The cases also shed light on whether the PRSP process itself has fostered more accountable, efficient and pro-poor budget processes and allocations as of 2003.The PRSP process, with its focus on data and information for evidence-based policy-making, open and participatory policy-making processes, poverty results and country-led donor coordination, alignment and harmonization has the potential to significantly improve the pro-poor focus and general accountability of budgeting processes.The cases confront a number of methodological challenges. First, in some countries and sectors, lack of appropriate data constrained the extent to which the research questions could be fully answered. Second, the PRSP remains a relatively recent innovation in all the countries studied and we recognize that many of our findings are preliminary, and require additional confirmation over time. Third, any assessment of the value added of the PRSP approach needs to be cognizant of the initial conditions in country, both to avoid ascribing successes to the PRSP which pre-date its existence, and to temper expectations about what the approach can deliver in a relatively short space of time given the starting point of each country. To address this last challenge, the case studies explicitly acknowledge the pre-existing situation in-country and try to assess the value added of the PRSP process.The four countries studied have a number of common features.Finally, and perhaps most importantly, all five countries share a high-level political commitment to addressing poverty, although the extent to which this commitment permeates throughout government agencies varies from country to country.The five countries, however, also display many distinctive features. Bolivia and Cambodia, for example, both suffer from high degrees of political fragmentation, which in Bolivia has manifested itself as civil unrest on a number of occasions in the last two years. Burkina Faso, Tanzania, and Vietnam, on the other hand, benefit from more stable political systems and an inherited commitment to pro-poor policies from socialist governments.

Since our last forecast a number of events has led us to form a slightly more pessimistic view of the outlook for the UK economy. These factors are principally a somewhat lower forecast for world activity levels as set out in the previous chapter, a steep rise in import prices in the first quarter of 1980, a small increase in the outturn of the current wage round over that previously forecast and a further depression in public expenditure planned in Cmnd 7841 for 1981 below that which we forecast under 'unchanged policy assumptions' before the budget.

Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities' fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies, using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000–2018. We compare such forecasts with the outturns reported in the corresponding budget documents of the following years, to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) there is no general optimistic bias in the forecasts for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio; (ii) over time, fiscal forecasts have improved for some countries and worsened for others; (iii) forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth and terms-of-trade changes, and negatively correlated with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios are negatively associated with surprises to GDP growth; and (v), budget balance rules may help contain fiscal forecast errors.

JEL Classification Codes: E6, H50

Effective January 1, 2015, Indonesia's new government took the decisive step of implementing a new fuel pricing system, dramatically reducing gasoline and diesel subsidy costs. This paved the way for the government's first budget, passed in February, to shift spending towards development priorities, especially infrastructure, the allocation for which is double the 2014 outturn. Successful implementation of the bold vision of the budget, however, will require overcoming administrative constraints to spending and dramatically lifting revenue collection performance. Achieving this, and having the benefits flow through into faster economic growth and poverty reduction, is likely to take time, especially with the pace of sustainable economic growth having slowed, due partly to lower commodity prices. Beyond the fiscal sector, reforms taken in the first months of the government's term in key areas such as investment licensing also face complex challenges to make operational. The government has signaled its strong reform intentions, and raised expectations. Early progress will now need to be consolidated by effectively implementing major reforms and the budget posture, against a still-challenging global economic backdrop for Indonesia.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- GLOSSARY -- PREFACE -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- I. FISCAL REPORTING -- 1.1. Coverage of Fiscal Reports -- 1.2. Frequency and Timeliness of Fiscal Reporting -- 1.3. Quality of Fiscal Reports -- 1.4. Integrity of Fiscal Reports -- 1.5 Recommendations -- II. FISCAL FORECASTING AND BUDGETING -- 2.1. Comprehensiveness of Budget Documentation -- 2.2. Orderliness -- 2.3. Policy Orientation -- 2.4. Credibility -- 2.5. Recommendations -- III. FISCAL RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT -- 3.1. Disclosure and Analysis -- 3.2. Fiscal Risk Management -- 3.3. Fiscal Coordination -- 3.4 Recommendations -- BOX -- 1.1. The Individual Investor Program and the National Development and Social Fund -- FIGURES -- 1.1. Public Sector Expenditure and Coverage in Fiscal Reports, 2016 -- 1.2. Coverage of Public Sector Balance Sheet in Fiscal Reports, 2016 -- 1.3. Public Sector Net Worth in Selected Countries -- 1.4. General Government Assets in Selected European Countries, 2016 -- 1.5. Public Sector Gross Liabilities in Selected European Countries -- 1.6. Other Economic Flows of General Government Financial Assets -- 1.7. Annual Revenue Loss from Tax Expenditures in Selected European Countries -- 1.8. Stock-Flow Adjustments of General Government -- 1.9. Historical Revisions between April 2013 and April 2018 EDP Notifications -- 1.10. Reconciliation of Budget Accounts with General Government Net Lending, 2016 -- 2.1. Medium-Term Macroeconomic Forecast Error for Real GDP Growth (2005-17) -- 2.2. Average Medium-Term Fiscal Forecast Error, 2005-17 -- 2.3. Medium-term Revenue and Expenditure Forecasts, 2014-18 -- 2.4. General Government Investment, 2006-17 -- 2.5. Supplementary Budgets and Outturns Relative to Approved Budget (2008-16) -- 2.6. Successive Medium-Term Budget Deficit Forecasts (2003-17) -- 3.1. Fan Charts for GDP Growth and Budget Balance.

The future relationship between the UK and the EU remains unclear. Despite that uncertainty the economy has gained momentum over the last few months, fiscal outturns have been better and financial markets appear to be sanguine about the uncertainty. It is against this backdrop that the Chancellor will have announced the Budget on 29 October, after this Review went to press.Our main forecast is conditional on a 'soft' Brexit, but we also describe the consequences of an orderly no-deal Brexit. Under our soft Brexit scenario, the Chancellor will have the necessary space under the fiscal mandate to borrow on average an additional £16 billion per year between 2019–20 and 2022–23 compared with the OBR spring forecast. This, together with better revenues, provides room for the Chancellor to spend an average of around £30 billion more over the same period. Under the no-deal Brexit scenario, borrowing would be an average of £14 billion higher than in the soft Brexit case.Even though the government complies with the fiscal mandate under the soft Brexit scenario, it is unlikely to meet its medium-term objective to balance the budget unless it chooses to tax more.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT-A HEALTHY RECOVERY AND RENEWED REFORM EFFORTS -- OUTLOOK-RECOVERY GAINING MOMENTUM BUT RISKS DOWN THE ROAD -- POLICY DISCUSSIONS-MAINTAINING THE REFORM MOMENTUM -- A. Rebuilding Fiscal Buffers -- B. Boosting Productivity -- C. Addressing the Fragmentation of the Labor Market -- D. Preserving Financial Stability -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Corporate Income Tax Reform -- 2. Simulating an Increase in Public Investment -- FIGURES -- 1. Macroeconomic Context -- 2. Fiscal Context -- 3. Productivity -- 4. Labor Market Fragmentation -- 5. Financial Sector Developments -- TABLES -- 1. Budget and Projected Outturns -- 2. Reform Agenda -- 3. Selected Economic Indicators, 2014-23 -- 4. Balance of Payments, 2014-23 -- 5. General Government Statement of Operations, 2014-23 -- 6. General Government Consolidated Balance Sheet, 2009-16 -- 7. Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2009-16 -- ANNEXES -- I. Main Recommendations of the 2017 Article IV Consultation and Authorities' Response -- II. External Sector Report -- III. Risk Assessment Matrix -- IV. Debt Sustainability Analysis -- V. Labor Market and Pension Reform Measures -- CONTENTS -- FUND RELATIONS -- STATISTICAL ISSUES.

The economic rebound in recent quarters has been stronger than expected and the economy is showing signs of overheating. These signs are show up in rising inflation, especially of those goods and services which are in strong demand, but cannot easily be imported or whose local supply cannot readily be increased to meet the growing demand. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth reached 20.8 percent year-on-year (yoy) in Q3, following an outturn of 17.3 percent in Q2. Growth for the year as a whole will likely hit 15 percent, if not more, up from 6.4 percent in 2010, and is being pushed by infrastructure spending as Mongolia develops its vast mineral wealth. Inflation continues its upward trend. The trade deficit is close to record levels (US$ 1.4 bn in September using 12-month rolling sums) driven by a surge in mining-related equipment and fuel imports. Exports are growing strongly too, driven by large coal shipments to China. The 2012 budget continues this fiscal expansion and targets a 74 percent increase in expenditures (mostly on wages and social transfers).

The article deals with the analysis of the sources of the budget revenues in financing of the cities of Chernivtsi region. The budget is the only fund which facilitates the financial development of the small cities of Chernivtsi region because of the inconspicuous role of the off-budget mechanisms and sources. The analysis was performed on the base of the reports of the budget execution concerning 2009-2012 of the small cities of Chernivtsi region with the usage of the absolute indicators of the budget supply of the city development as well as the enumeration of the relative indicators, to our point of view, this fact just aggravates the investigated problem. The analysis of the budget profitability has reflected that the financial sufficiency of the small cities remains very low. Performed budget and tax reforms haven't gained success in the part of the decentralization of the inter-budget relations which is proved with the increase of the role of the grants and subventions in the revenues of the local budget during 2011-2012. The role of the local taxes or outturns is very low, this fact represents its secondary and additional value, the significant dependency of the profitability of the local budget upon the decisions of the central bodies of power, the inconspicuous independence of the local government. ; В статье на основе отчетов об исполнении бюджетов за 2009-2012 годы малых городов Черновицкой области проанализированы источники формирования доходной базы их бюджетов. Выяснено, что уровень финансовой достаточности малых городов области продолжает оставаться очень низким, не смотря на проведенные мероприятия бюджетной и налоговой реформы. В частности, не произошло реальной децентрализации межбюджетных отношений, что подтверждается ростом роли дотаций и субвенций в доходах местных бюджетов в течение 2011-2012 гг. Низкой является роль местных налогов и сборов, что свидетельствует об их второстепенной, дополнительной роли, а также о существенной зависимости доходной части местных бюджетов от решений центральных органов власти, недостаточной самостоятельности местной власти. ; У статті на основі звітів про виконання бюджетів за 2009-2012 роки малих міст Чернівецької області проаналізовано джерела формування дохідної бази їхніх бюджетів. З'ясовано, що рівень фінансової достатності малих міст області продовжує залишатися дуже низьким, попри впровадження заходів бюджетної й податкової реформи. Зокрема, не відбулося реальної децентралізації міжбюджетних відносин, що підтверджується зростанням ролі дотацій і субвенцій у доходах місцевих бюджетів протягом 2011-2012 рр. Низькою є роль місцевих податків і зборів, що свідчить про їхню другорядну, додаткову роль, а також про істотну залежність дохідної частини місцевих бюджетів від рішень центральних органів влади, про недостатню самостійність місцевої влади.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- GLOSSARY -- PREFACE -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. DESIGN OPTIONS FOR THE FISCAL RULES -- A. International Experience -- B. Fiscal Rules in the Georgia Context -- C. Corrective Mechanisms -- D. Escape Clauses -- E. Oversight Arrangements -- F. Revisions of the Fiscal Rules -- G. Recommendations -- III. COVERAGE AND MEASUREMENT -- A. Institutional and Transactional Coverage -- B. Measurement of Government Transactions -- C. Implications for the Fiscal Aggregates -- D. Recommendations -- IV. IMPLEMENTING THE FISCAL RULES -- A. Applying the Fiscal Rules in Fiscal Policy -- B. Reporting on the Fiscal Rules -- C. Compliance by Subnational Governments -- D. Enhancing Budget Institutions -- E. Recommendations -- BOXES -- 1.1. Constraints on Taxes in the Constitution and the ELA -- 2.1. Assessment of Fiscal Rules -- 2.2. Considerations for Expenditure Rule Coverage -- 3.1. Delineation between General Government and SOEs -- 3.2. Accounting Government Support to SOEs in Fiscal Statistics -- 4.1. Illustrative MTBF Model -- 4.2. Country Examples of Ceilings in their PPP Laws -- 4.3. Considerations for the Design of PPP/PPA Ceilings -- FIGURES -- 2.1. International Experience with Fiscal Rules -- 2.2. Fiscal Rules with Escape Clauses -- 2.3. Real GDP Growth 2000Q1-2016Q4 (year-on year) -- 4.1. Debt Trajectory and Safe Debt Level -- 4.2. Debt and Deficit Paths Under Alternative Options -- 4.3. Municipal Budget Balance and Liabilities -- 4.4. Successive Real GDP and Inflation Forecasts 2010-16 -- 4.5. Revisions to Medium-term Plans -- TABLES -- 0.1. Overview of Recommendations -- 1.1. Fiscal Forecasts and Outturns in Georgia -- 3.1. Transactions of LEPLs Controlled by Central Government 2015-16 -- 3.2. Revision to Government Deficit due to the Change in Sector Classification, 2013.

The economy continues to recover with most sectors rebounding strongly from the sharp drop in output late 2008 and early 2009. Preliminary estimates suggest that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 6.1 percent year-on-year in 2010, following an outturn of minus 1.3 percent in 2009. However, winter arrived in Mongolia with the agriculture sector still feeling the impact from last year's dzud. The sector has now experienced double-digit contractions for the third quarter in a row. The exchange rate against the US dollar has been slowly appreciating back to the pre-crisis level. In December 2010, the average monthly exchange rate against the US$ appreciated by 3.0 percent, compared to the previous month, or 15 percent compared to December 2009. The latest survey conducted in informal labor markets in December 2010 revealed a reduction in number of casual workers by about 40 percent compared to September due to the seasonal closure of construction labor markets, and reduced outdoor sales activities due to cold weather. Mongolia has made significant progress in improving budget transparency, but there is still considerable room for improvement. Finally, although Mongolia's laws are easily accessible online and court processes are generally impartial and transparent, the predictability of court decisions is limited and the courts, enforcement and registration agencies are often perceived as corrupt by the public.

This study examines procurement policy issues in light of the recent concerns on delays in project implementation and underspending by government agencies. In the 2014 and 2015 reports by the Department of Budget and Management, procurement is cited as a reason for underspending. Likewise, government agencies with major underspending concerns noted "public procurement issues" as a recurring reason for the low disbursement outturn. In an attempt to make procurement less of a hurdle, Congress currently proposes to grant emergency powers to the president and do away with competitive bidding as the default mode in implementing transportation projects. However, procurement data analysis shows that in civil works procurement, the bid failure rate tends to be higher under the alternative mode of procurement than under the competitive mode, a result which does not support Congress' proposal. Key lessons from experience are also investigated through interviews with various government agencies in the implementation and execution of the Philippine procurement process. The numerous key informant interviews greatly revealed the difficulties encountered and good practices implemented under the current legislative framework. To address procurement issues, the study recommends: (1) pursuing deliberate investments on and having a political will for systems change and organizational culture change; (2) greater investment on planning and other preparatory activities before the actual procurement; (3) innovation orientation in public procurement; and (4) value-for-money procurement.