Suchergebnisse

This study examines the factors that affect the borrowing costs of state governments with specific attention being paid to the impact of state structural deficits (or fiscal imbalances) on borrowing costs. The findings for 1999–2000 suggest that interest costs for state competitively sold municipal securities reflect estimates of state structural deficits. States with a higher structural deficit were found to pay significantly higher interest costs. The evidence implies that bond ratings do not fully reflect the fiscal problems faced by state governments.

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira ; Neste artigo, analiso os determinantes do rendimento dos títulos soberanos a 10 anos em relação à Alemanha para um painel de 10 países da área do euro para um período entre 1999 e 2019. Além das variáveis habituais, como o vix, taxa de câmbio efetiva real, saldo orçamental esperado, dívida esperada em relação ao PIB e crescimento do PIB, estudei o impacto das regras fiscais e das medidas de política monetária do BCE, nomeadamente o LTRO, SMP e PSPP. Este trabalho permite concluir que, quando testado individualmente, um aumento dos spreads de compra e venda, taxa de câmbio efetiva real e dívida esperada leva a um aumento nos spreads da dívida soberana, enquanto um aumento no crescimento do PIB e no saldo orçamental leva a uma diminuição nos spreads da dívida soberana. Também concluí que um aumento nas classificações de crédito médias tem um impacto negativo nos spreads da dívida soberana. Finalmente, no que diz respeito ao QE do BCE, não encontrei qualquer evidência de significância estatística. ; In this paper, I examine the determinants of 10-year sovereign bond yield relative to Germany for a panel of 10 Euro area countries for a period between 1999 and 2019. Beyond the usual variables such as vix, real effective exchange rate, expected budget balance, expected debt-to-GDP and GDP growth, I studied the impact of fiscal rules and ECB monetary policy measures, namely the LTRO, SMP and PSPP. My work finds that, when tested individually, an increase in bid ask spreads, real effective exchange rate and expected debt leads to an increase in yield spreads while an increase in GDP growth and in budget balance leads to a decrease in bond yields. I also found that an increase on the average credit ratings have a negative impact on bond yields. Finally, in what it concerns with ECB quantitative easing I did not find any evidence of statistically significance. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

"Internal controls" refer to organizational rules and procedures used to safeguard assets and to detect fraud, waste, and abuse. This study examines the relationship between internal control deficiencies and municipal bond borrowing costs. The most severe form of internal control deficiencies (i.e., material weaknesses) is associated with higher borrowing costs for municipal bonds, between 10 and 18 basis points. Credit ratings mediate some of the effect of material weaknesses in internal controls but the indirect effect is relatively small. The effect of internal control deficiencies on borrowing costs was consistent in the time period before and after the financial crisis.

This paper investigates the impact of fiscal institutions on state government borrowing costs. We find that institutions have both a direct and indirect effect on interest costs paid by state governments. Revenue limits are associated directly with higher interest costs; expenditure limits, stricter balanced budget rules, and restrictions on state debt issuance are indirectly associated with lower interest costs because they lead to higher credit ratings. It appears that investors and bond raters incorporate information on fiscal institutions into their assessment of state government credit quality.

We examine whether adopting numerical fiscal rules framework to guide fiscal policy helped reduce the cost of borrowing by governments in a sample of 61 low- and middle-income countries for 1985–2017, 24 of which adopted such rules. We address the self-selection problem of policy adoption by applying a variety of propensity score matching methods and show that the average treatment effect of fiscal rules on government borrowing costs is quantitatively quite large and statistically significant in rule adopting countries. We also find that the presence of institutional arrangements to strengthen fiscal rules results in a larger reduction in borrowing costs than is the case without these arrangements, which is consistent with strong rules adding to the credibility of the fiscal policy framework.

This article reports on research into the possible interest cost penalties when state governments impose increasingly high debt levels on their citizens. The potential effect of debt levels on borrowing costs is a material one, given the large amounts of state debt outstanding. At the same time that government borrowing is heavy, the demand for government obligations also appears to be strong. The authors examine state debt levels and borrowing costs over a six‐year period (2001–2006) and find little evidence of such an effect, despite rapidly growing debt burdens. Those concerned about state debt levels, the authors say, must look to sources other than investors for pressure to reduce debt issuance.