Reprinted from Tellus, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 13-17, 1966. ; Research supported by the Meteorology Laboratory, Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories, Office of Aerospace Research, United States Air Force, L.G. Hanscom Field, Bedford, Massachusetts. ; Meteorology Laboratory Project 8628 ; "June 1966." ; Includes bibliographical references. ; Mode of access: Internet.
Abstract. The benefit of having a daily synoptic weather type catalogue and even more, a detailed catalogue for high impact weather events is well recognised by both climatologist and meteorologist communities. In this way the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) has produced some accurate classifications for extreme events, such as hailstorms or strong winds (SW). Within the framework of the MEDEX project, the SMC has been collaborating to increase the level of awareness about these events. Following this line of work, the aim of this study is to characterise the SW events in Catalonia. According to the guidelines of the MEDEX project we worked with its SW event database for the period June 1995 to May 2004. We also used the period 2005–2009 to test the methodology. The methodology is based on principal component, cluster and discriminant analyses and applied to four variables: SLP, temperature at 850 hPa and geopotential at 500 hPa on a synoptic-scale and local gust wind. We worked with ERA-Interim reanalysis and applied discriminant analysis to test the quality of the methodology and to classify the events of the validation period. We found seven patterns for the SW events. The strongest event corresponds to NW-Flow with the Azores Anticyclone and the passing of a low pressure through the Pyrenees. This methodology has distinguished the summer events in an independent cluster. The results obtained encourage us to follow this line of work.
Abstract This study evaluates the relationship between atmospheric circulation conditions and the frequency of heat/cold stress in Lublin in the years 1951-2010 according to the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The paper outlines the frequency and conditional probability of heat/cold stress during particular circulation types and analyses the circulation patterns that induce these incidences. Increased wind velocity had a significant effect on creating unfavourable bioclimatic conditions in winter. Meanwhile, in summer, heat stress was observed almost exclusively when a high pressure system from eastern Europe induced a slow inflow of very warm air masses from the east or south.
Abstract. The characteristics of the atmospheric circulation over Europe and the Mediterranean associated with the formation and the dissipation of fog in Greece are examined. The data used consists of: i) 3-hourly meteorological observations recorded at 16 meteorological stations in Greece and ii) daily (00:00 UTC) 2.5×2.5 grid point values of mean sea-level pressure, 500 hPa geopotential height, 850 hPa and 500 hPa air temperatures and 1000–500 hPa thickness over Europe for the period 1957–2002. 1055 fog events are extracted from the 3-hourly meteorological observations. A specific methodology scheme including S-mode Factor Analysis and k-means Cluster Analysis is applied to the grid point data sets for the first day of a fog event (D day), the day prior to D day (D-1 day) and the day that follows the last day of a fog event (END day) and the 1055 evolutions of the atmospheric circulation associated with fog events in Greece are classified into 10 clusters. The mean patterns of MSL Pressure, 850 hPa and 500 hPa air temperatures, 1000–500 hPa thickness and 500 hPa geopotential height show that in most of the clusters, the presence of anticyclonic conditions over the Balkans, a warm front passage, or a weak, humid southerly flow induced by the presence of a shallow depression over the western Mediterranean favor fog formation in Greece, while the dissipation of fog occurs when drier air masses are transferred over the Balkans. The main differences among the 10 clusters refer to the exact position, the intensity and the specific evolution of the surface and the upper air systems, the season of their predominance and the area of the Greek territory that mainly refer to.
Traditional approaches for assessing wave climate variability have been broadly focused on aggregated or statistical parameters such as significant wave height, wave energy flux, or mean wave direction. These studies, although revealing the major general modes of wave climate variability and trends, do not take into consideration the complexity of the wind-wave fields. Because ocean waves are the response to both local and remote winds, analyzing the directional full spectra can shed light on atmospheric circulation not only over the immediate ocean region, but also over a broad basin scale. In this work, the authors use a pattern classification approach to explore wave climate variability in the frequency–direction domain. This approach identifies atmospheric circulation patterns of the sea level pressure from the 31-yr long Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and wave spectral patterns of two selected buoys in the North Atlantic, finding one-to-one relations between each synoptic pattern (circulation type) and each spectral wave energy distribution (spectral type). Even in the absence of long-wave records, this method allows for the reconstruction of longterm wave spectra to cover variability at several temporal scales: daily, monthly, seasonal, interannual, decadal, long-term trends, and future climate change projections. ; The authors are grateful to Puertos del Estado (Spanish Ministry of Public Works and Infrastructures) for providing us the instrumental buoy data. This work was partially funded by the project IMAR21 (CT M2010-15009) from the Spanish Government.
European climate is associated with variability and changes in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. In this study, we aim to investigate potential future change in circulation over Europe by using the EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections at 0.11° grid mesh. In particular, we analyze future change in 500-hPa geopotential height (Gph), 500-hPa wind speed and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) addressing different warming levels of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively. Simple scaling with the global mean temperature change is applied to the regional climate projections for monthly mean 500-hPa Gph and 500-hPa wind speed. Results from the ensemble mean of individual models show a robust increase in 500-hPa Gph and MSLP in winter over Mediterranean and Central Europe, indicating an intensification of anticyclonic circulation. This circulation change emerges robustly in most simulations within the coming decade. There are also enhanced westerlies which transport warm and moist air to the Mediterranean and Central Europe in winter and spring. It is also clear that, models showing different responses to circulation depend very much on the global climate model ensemble member in which they are nested. For all seasons, particularly autumn, the ensemble mean is much more correlated with the end of the century than most of the individual models. In general, the emergence of a scaled pattern appears rather quickly. ; Tugba Ozturk was supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under the programme TUBITAK 2219—International Postdoctoral Research Fellowship. This work also received support by the European Union under the Horizon 2020 Grant Agreement 776613, the EUCP project. ; Publisher's Version
In this paper we present a detailed spatial assessment of the association between atmospheric synoptic conditions (the weather types, WT) and fires on the Spanish mainland. The WT approach allows the continuum of atmospheric fields to be compressed into a few comprehensive patterns, providing meaningful information on the movement of air masses, wind direction and, ultimately, wind speed. We analyzed a total of 291,547 individual fires from the official Spanish Fire database (1974–2014) and corresponding daily WT patterns on the Iberian Peninsula from the daily NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis database, 1951–2015. Underlying spatial patterns of association among fire and weather types were explored by means of self-organizing maps (SOM) coupled to hierarchical clustering. Our analyses have detected that fires tend to occur and become largermore likely under certain atmospheric conditions suggesting that specific weather patterns can promote or boost fire events. From a pyrogeographical point of view, the contribution of WTs to wildfires on the Spanish mainland seems to be highly diverse, and displays several temporal and spatial patterns. The northwest region responds mostly to eastern flows during summer and southern during winter. Fires in the northern Mediterranean coast are promoted by northerly flows while in southern regions fires are linked to C or SE extreme heat episodes during summer. Overall, fires activity usually increases in the lee ward of mountain ranges depending on the prevalent flow from WTs, and thus related to adiabatic heating of the air flow. ; This work is supported by the projects CGL2014-52135-C3-3-R and CGL2017-83866-C3-1-R, financed by the Spanish Government, Ministry of Economy and Finance and FEDER, and the Regional Council of Aragón DGA-FSE (Grupo de Investigación Consolidado 'Clima, Agua, Cambio Global y Sistemas Naturales'). Marcos Rodrigues Mimbrero is a postdoctoral research fellow in the Juan de la Cierva program supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Finance (FJCI-2016-31090); Adrian Jiménez-Ruano is a granted FPU-PhD student (Ref. 13/06618).
The current pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is having negative health, social and economic consequences worldwide. In Europe, the pandemic started to develop strongly at the end of February and beginning of March 2020. Subsequently, it spread over the continent, with special virulence in northern Italy and inland Spain. In this study we show that an unusual persistent anticyclonic situation prevailing in southwestern Europe during February 2020 (i.e. anomalously strong positive phase of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations) could have resulted in favorable conditions, e.g., in terms of air temperature and humidity among other factors, in Italy and Spain for a quicker spread of the virus compared with the rest of the European countries. It seems plausible that the strong atmospheric stability and associated dry conditions that dominated in these regions may have favored the virus propagation, both outdoors and especially indoors, by short-range droplet and aerosol (airborne) transmission, or/and by changing social contact patterns. Later recent atmospheric circulation conditions in Europe (July 2020) and the U.S. (October 2020) seem to support our hypothesis, although further research is needed in order to evaluate other confounding variables. Interestingly, the atmospheric conditions during the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 seem to have resembled at some stage with the current COVID-19 pandemic. ; A, Sanchez-Lorenzo was supported by a fellowship (RYC-2016–20784) and a project (PID2019-105901RB-I00) funded by the Ministry of Science and Innovation of Spain. Javier Vaquero-Martinez was supported by a predoctoral fellowship (PD18029) from Junta de Extremadura and European Social Fund. J.A. Lopez-Bustins was supported by Climatology Group of the University of Barcelona (2017 SGR 1362, Catalan Government) and the CLICES project (CGL2017-83866-C3-2-R, AEI/FEDER, UE). This research was supported by the Economy and Infrastructure Counselling of the Junta of Extremadura through grant GR18097 (co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund).
Abstract. The work examines the seasonality and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns associated with debris-flow occurrence in the Trentino–Alto Adige region (eastern Italian Alps). Analysis is based on classification algorithms applied to a uniquely dense archive of debris flows and hourly rain gauge precipitation series covering the period 2000–2009. Results highlight the seasonal and synoptic forcing patterns linked to debris flows in the study area. Summer and fall season account for 92% of the debris flows in the record, while atmospheric circulation characterized by zonal west, mixed and meridional south and southeast (SE–S) patterns account for 80%. Both seasonal and circulation patterns exhibit geographical preference. In the case of seasonality, there is a strong north–south separation of summer–fall dominance, while spatial distribution of dominant circulation patterns exhibits clustering, with both zonal west and mixed patterns prevailing in the northwest and central east part of the region, while the southern part relates to meridional south and southeast pattern. Seasonal and synoptic pattern dependence is pronounced also on the debris-flow-triggering rainfall properties. Examination of rainfall intensity–duration thresholds derived for different data classes (according to season and synoptic pattern) revealed a distinct variability in estimated thresholds. These findings imply a certain control on debris-flow events and can therefore be used to improve existing alert systems.
Abstract. The aim of this paper is to analyse indices of extreme precipitation in Krivošije, Montenegro, the wettest Mediterranean region, from the period 1951–2007 and their relationships with atmospheric circulation using "SynopVis Grosswetterlagen" (SVG) series. Data from two stations were analysed, namely Crkvice (42°34'N and 18°39'E) and Herceg Novi (42°27'N and 18°31'E). Four indices of precipitation extremes (SDII, R75p, R95p, R95pTOT) were assessed including number of dry days. The results suggest that the number of days with precipitation decreased. To analyse the relationship between extreme precipitation events and circulation types we have used an efficiency coefficient (Ec). Regarding relation to atmospheric circulation, westerly, southwesterly and northwesterly circulation types with anticyclonic features over Central Europe are more frequent for dry days (days with R<1.0 mm) and northerly, easterly and southerly types for wet and very wet days (R75p and R95p indices). The types with cyclonic condition over Central Europe show a large proportion of wet and very wet days. Also, activity of Genoa cyclogenesis and orographic influence over a small area are the main reasons for the high precipitation amounts recorded in the Krivošije region (Crkvice).
Abstract. Wave climates are fundamental drivers of coastal vulnerability; changing trends in wave heights, periods and directions can severely impact a coastline. In a diverse storm environment, the changes in these parameters are difficult to detect and quantify. Since wave climates are linked to atmospheric circulation patterns, an automated and objective classification scheme was developed to explore links between synoptic-scale circulation patterns and wave climate variables, specifically wave heights. The algorithm uses a set of objective functions based on wave heights to guide the classification and find atmospheric classes with strong links to wave behaviour. Spatially distributed fuzzy numbers define the classes and are used to detect locally high- and low-pressure anomalies. Classes are derived through a process of simulated annealing. The optimized classification focuses on extreme wave events. The east coast of South Africa was used as a case study. The results show that three dominant patterns drive extreme wave events. The circulation patterns exhibit some seasonality with one pattern present throughout the year. Some 50–80% of the extreme wave events are explained by these three patterns. It is evident that strong low-pressure anomalies east of the country drive a wind towards the KwaZulu-Natal coastline which results in extreme wave conditions. We conclude that the methodology can be used to link circulation patterns to wave heights within a diverse storm environment. The circulation patterns agree with qualitative observations of wave climate drivers. There are applications to the assessment of coastal vulnerability and the management of coastlines worldwide.
AbstractAtmospheric circulation generally influences regional climate variability and thereby controls catchment hydrology and consequently transport of elements in natural riverine systems. This study examined dependencies between total organic carbon (TOC) variability in the River Oulujoki (Finland) during 1963–2011 and prominent atmospheric circulation patterns (ACPs), which manifest natural climatic conditions over Finland and control hydrological processes in the river catchment. North Atlantic Oscillation, Scandinavia, East Atlantic and East Atlantic/West Russia patterns were statistically significant ACPs affecting variations in TOC export at River Oulujoki lower basin area. In the River Oulujoki, TOC export was largely controlled by changes in TOC fluxes generated from tributaries of river and near areas to its main channel. Besides, runoff from Lake Oulujärvi slightly influenced TOC export variability in the River Oulujoki. Understanding such responses of TOC fluxes to ACPs is a useful tool for sustainable water resources planning and management on regional and local scales.
Abstract. Projections of sea level rise (SLR) will lead to increasing coastal impacts during extreme sea level events globally; however, there is significant uncertainty around short-term coastal sea level variability and the attendant frequency and severity of extreme sea level events. In this study, we investigate drivers of coastal sea level variability (including extremes) around Australia by means of historical conditions as well as future changes under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). To do this, a multi-decade hindcast simulation is validated against tide gauge data. The role of tide–surge interaction is assessed and found to have negligible effects on storm surge characteristic heights over most of the coastline. For future projections, 20-year-long simulations are carried out over the time periods 1981–1999 and 2081–2099 using atmospheric forcing from four CMIP5 climate models. Changes in extreme sea levels are apparent, but there are large inter-model differences. On the southern mainland coast all models simulated a southward movement of the subtropical ridge which led to a small reduction in sea level extremes in the hydrodynamic simulations. Sea level changes over the Gulf of Carpentaria in the north are largest and positive during austral summer in two out of the four models. In these models, changes to the northwest monsoon appear to be the cause of the sea level response. These simulations highlight a sensitivity of this semi-enclosed gulf to changes in large-scale dynamics in this region and indicate that further assessment of the potential changes to the northwest monsoon in a larger multi-model ensemble should be investigated, together with the northwest monsoon's effect on extreme sea levels.
