The case for climate action has never been stronger. Current weather extremes, including storms, floods and drought, affect millions of people across the world. Climate change is putting water security at risk; threatening agricultural and other supply chains as well as many coastal cities. The likelihood of severe pervasive and irreversible impacts will grow without action to limit and reverse the growth of GHG emissions globally. Last year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report makes clear the overwhelming need to take action now on climate change and that the costs of inaction will only rise. The challenge is to decarbonize our economies by 2100 with action in the next decades being critical. The choices made by government, the private sector, and civil society as part of the transition to a decarbonized economy will determine the extent of future climate impacts but also provide an opportunity to unlock investment and build an innovative, dynamic low-carbon economy.
The stalemate between domestic political forces continues to impede reforms while the ongoing Syrian conflict is imposing a security, political, and economic toll on Lebanon. The stalemate in the executive and legislative branches of government remains an impediment to reforms. Important bills, regulations and appointments are still pending in cabinet and Parliament. This deadlock could well last until the June 2013 Parliamentary elections. The Syrian crisis is fueling political divide among sectarian lines in Lebanon, leading to sporadic violence incidents across the country. These incidents have materially impacted the economy, with sectors such as tourism strongly affected. Politically, the turmoil has sparked social unrest and overshadowed the reform drive. To tackle the situation, the government devised a minimum political understanding to restore order in the country. Political backing for a large security operation has also been given; results have yet to fully materialize. The fiscal deficit and public debt positions remain major challenges for the Lebanese economy. The fiscal deficit deteriorated somewhat during the first half of the year. Notwithstanding this slight widening of the fiscal balance, public debt continues its recent downward trend. Rising international commodity prices and the Syrian crisis are adding further pressure on both trade and current account deficits.
The antitrust laws are a minefield for the uninitiated. Indicative of this reality is the fact that there were no successful civil lawsuits alleging a violation of the antitrust laws brought in Virginia over the past year. A number of conspiracy, monopolization and price discrimination cases were attempted, but they all failed for a variety of reasons outlined in greater detail below. In contrast to the national trend, no antitrust cases with regard to health care were decided in Virginia during the past year. The absence of such cases represents a dramatic change from previous experience, which perhaps reflects the reality that-staff privilege and exclusive dealing cases involving hospitals or physicians are rarely successful under the antitrust laws.
As a small and open economy, Belarus' development perspectives are intrinsically linked to its ability to produce and sell goods and services competitively in the global marketplace. While Belarus is an open economy, its trade links are concentrated both in terms of products and markets. Mineral goods –most importantly refined oil and potassium chloride - are the main export product accounting for more than 1/3 of total exports. Non mineral exports, including most importantly machinery, vehicles and transport equipment are mostly exported to Russia and other CIS markets, which account for 74 percent of non-mineral exports while the share of EU countries in Belarus non-mineral exports account for less than 15 percent. With Russia's WTO accession in 2012 competitive pressures on Belarus' major market for non-mineral exports have further intensified. As Belarus is accelerating its own negotiations with the WTO, understanding the challenges and opportunities faced by the country's exporters is critical to putting in place an effective adaptation strategy that will enhance competitiveness and ensure Belarus can take full advantage of more open market access. The objective of this note is to analyze the economic impacts of Belarus' potential accession to the WTO. The note utilizes a modern computable general equilibrium model of the economy of Belarus to simulate impacts on the economy as a whole and on individual sectors.
Despite the declining trends in total energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, energy intensity, and emission intensity over the past two decades, Romania still emits more greenhouse gas per unit of output than many other members of the European Union. The country is looking for further greening of its energy supply system to achieve the clean energy and climate change mitigation goals included in the European Unions 2030 target and 2050 Roadmap. Using an energy supply optimization model, TIMES, this study develops energy supply mixes for Romania under a baseline scenario that satisfies the European Unions current energy and climate targets for 2020, a green scenario that satisfies the European Unions 2030 energy and climate targets, and a super green scenario that satisfies the European Unions prospective 2050 energy road map. The study finds that although Romania could achieve the green scenario at a moderate cost, it would be challenging and costly to achieve the super green scenario.
The Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS) update identifies priority actions in support of the Government of Sudan (GOS) commitment to increase trade and diversify the economy. The current study builds on the earlier 2008 DTIS by identifying the major factors holding back the increase of agricultural exports and economic diversification. The report identifies a package of measures that will support Sudan to more effectively realize its economic potential. The DTIS Update presents an updated action matrix that summarizes the recommended policy reforms. This matrix was validated with a wide variety of stakeholders in Khartoum in September 2014. Together, the action points will contribute to reducing trade costs, thereby enabling Sudanese enterprises and farmers to compete more successfully in regional and global markets and realize the GOS objectives of expanding and diversifying exports for increased economic growth. The recommendations accept that any changes in tariff schedules should be 'revenue neutral,' given the existing challenging fiscal situation.
This study is part of the ongoing dialogue on reforming trade logistics, and facilitating trade and transportation in Central and South Asian countries. It presents key findings from several rounds of first-hand observations and interviews conducted with multiple stakeholders to measure the performance of key road transport corridors across the region, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and to some extent, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The study identifies obstacles that hinder efficient movement of goods along transport corridors, and offers recommendations for short- and medium-term reforms for participating country governments with particular emphasis on the performance of border crossings. The overall objective of this study is to provide basic information on transport corridor performance so that national policy makers and private sectors have a basis to open discussions on how they might cooperate to facilitate international trade and transport by addressing infrastructure and operational bottlenecks in the region.
학위논문(박사)--서울대학교 대학원 :공과대학 기계항공공학부,2020. 2. 송한호. ; 전세계적으로 지구 온난화 문제를 야기하는 온실가스 배출을 줄이기 위한 다양한 규제가 시행되고 있다. 그 중에서도 도로 수송 분야에서는 연비 규제나 온실가스 규제를 통해 온실가스 배출량을 감축시키고자 한다. 이러한 규제의 특징은 전기 주행 모드의 자동차에 대해 배기구에서 발생하는 온실가스 배출량을 0으로 산정하며, 이에 더불어 추가적인 인센티브를 부여한다는 점이다. 그런데 전기자동차가 차량 주행 시 온실가스를 배출하지 않지만, 차량 주행을 위해 필요한 전기를 얻기 위한 과정에서 온실가스가 발생한다. 그리고 이러한 상류 과정의 온실가스를 무시한 채 전기 주행 모드의 온실가스 배출량을 0으로 산정하는 것에 대해 여러 논의가 이루어지고 있다. 특히 최근 들어 이러한 논의는 더욱 구체화되고 있다. 특히 일본의 새로운 연비 규제에서 연료 생산 단계의 효율을 이용하여 보정한 자동차 연비를 사용할 것이라고 발표하였다. 이에 따라 우리나라에서도 연비 규제와 온실가스 규제에 전과정 분석 결과를 적용하는 것에 대해 그 영향을 예측하고 평가할 필요가 있다. 이처럼 연료의 생산 과정, 특히 전기의 상류 과정에 대한 고려의 필요성이 이슈화되는 것에는 크게 두 가지 이유가 있다. 첫 째는 미래에 전기자동차의 수요가 증가함에 따라 전기의 수요가 증가할 것이기 때문이다. 둘 째는 전기 생산 과정의 온실가스 배출량은 발전원의 종류에 따라 달라지기 때문이다. 이러한 상황에서 전과정 분석은 다양한 연료와 자동차의 친환경성을 정량적으로 평가하기 위한 도구로 사용될 수 있다. Well-to-wheel (WTW) 분석은 자동차 연료의 생애 전과정 분석을 의미하며, 원유 산지(Well)부터 자동차 주행 과정 (Wheel)에 이르기까지 전체 과정을 나타낸다. 전기차의 전과정에는 자동차 주행 과정과 발전 과정, 그리고 발전 원료의 생산 과정이 포함되어 있으며, 공정한 비교를 위하여 내연기관 자동차도 전기차와 마찬가지로 휘발유, 디젤 등의 연료 생산에 관한 모든 과정이 포함된다. 본 연구에서는 자동차 연료의 전과정 온실가스 배출량 값을 바탕으로 규제하는 전과정 온실가스 규제를 제시하고, 새로운 규제가 자동차 시장과 이해관계자들에게 미치는 영향에 대하여 평가하였다. 또한 자동차 전과정 온실가스 규제를 통해 국가의 에너지 정책이 자동차 정책과 연계될 수 있음을 보였다. 본 연구의 연구 순서는 다음과 같다. 먼저 우리나라의 자동차 연료에 대한 전과정 분석을 수행하고, 미래의 전과정 온실가스 배출량을 예측하였다. 다음으로 전과정 규제의 온실가스 배출량 규제치와 범칙금을 설정하고, 행위자 기반 모형을 바탕으로 정부와 소비자, 자동차 제작사 간의 상호 영향을 예측할 수 있는 모델을 설계하였다. 이를 통해서 얻은 자동차 시장 예측 모델을 이용하여 자동차 제작사가 제품의 가격을 어떻게 설정할 것인지 소비자는 어떠한 제품을 구매할 것인지를 예측할 수 있다. 마지막으로 전과정 분석 결과와 자동차 시장 예측 모델에 전과정 온실가스 규제를 적용하여 나타나는 사회적 현상에 대해 분석하였다. 본 연구의 분석 범위는 2030년의 준중형차 시장을 가정하였다. 이에 따라 2030년의 연간 준중형 자동차 판매량은 50만 대로 추산하였다. 준중형차 시장의 주 소비자는 가격에 민감하며, 준중형차는 전기 자동차의 기술을 적용하기 용이한 특징이 있다. 또한 본 분석의 자동차 시장에는 휘발유 내연기관 자동차, 휘발유 하이브리드 자동차, 휘발유 플러그인 자동차와 주행가능거리 200 마일의 전기자동차만 있다고 가정하였다. 자동차 온실가스 전과정 분석은 원료 추출 단계부터 자동차에 주유 또는 충전하기까지의 과정을 의미하는 Well-to-Tank (WTT) 과정과 자동차 주행 과정을 의미하는 Tank-to-Wheel(TTW) 과정으로 나뉜다. 분석을 위해 미국 아르곤 국가 연구소의 전과정 분석 프로그램을 이용하였으며, 한국의 실정에 맞도록 입력데이터와 연료 생산 경로를 모두 수정하여, 한국에서 사용하는 연료에 대한 전과정 분석 결과를 얻었다. 2030년의 전과정 분석 결과를 얻기 위해 가장 중요한 요소는 미래의 연비와 발전 믹스이다. 여러 기관의 미래 예측 결과에 따르면 내연기관 자동차의 연비 향상율은 전기 자동차의 전비 향상율보다 높을 것으로 예상하고 있다. 또한 우리 나라의 2030년 전력 수급계획은 원자력 발전량의 감축과 신재생 에너지 발전량의 증축이 핵심 목표이다. 2030년의 전과정 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 휘발유 자동차, 하이브리드 자동차, 플러그인 하이브리드 자동차, 전기자동차에 대해 먼저 자동차 주행 과정에서 배출되는 온실가스는 각각 138.7, 94.6, 13.2, 0 g-CO2-eq./km 순으로 나타난다. 전과정 온실가스 배출량은 4가지 자동차에 대해 160.9, 109.9, 89.3, 85.0 g-CO2-eq./km 순으로 계산되었다. 휘발유 자동차와 전기 자동차의 주행과정의 온실가스 배출량 차이는 138.7 g-CO2-eq./km이지만, 전과정 온실가스 배출량 차이는 75.9 g-CO2-eq./km 이며, 두 차종 사이의 간극이 좁혀지는 것을 확인할 수 있다. 또한 온실가스 배출량을 전과정적으로 계산하였을 때, 하이브리드 자동차와 플러그인 하이브리드 자동차의 온실가스 배출량 차이가 크게 감소하였다. 다음으로 행위자 기반 모형을 이용하여 2030년의 자동차 시장을 예측하는 모델을 설계하였다. 행위자 기반 모형은 사회경제적 환경 속에서 서로 영향을 주고 받는 행위자들의 의사 결정을 예측하는 것에 사용되는 분석 기법이다. 본 연구에서는 자동차 시장에 연관된 행위자로 정부와 소비자, 자동차 제작사를 선정하였다. 먼저 우리나라의 자동차 온실가스 규제를 살펴보면 2020년의 규제치까지 발표되었으며, 2030년에 대해서는 발표된 바 없다. 따라서 동일 선상의 비교를 위하여 다음과 같은 가정을 통해 정부의 2030년 온실가스 규제의 규제치와 범칙금 요율을 결정하였다. 기존의 규제 방법에 따른 온실가스 규제의 규제치는 62.2 g/km이며, 전과정 온실가스 규제의 규제치는 109.2 g/km이다. 온실가스 규제치를 달성하지 못할 경우에 대한 범칙금 요율은 현행 법의 2022년 이후 시행안을 참고하여 1 g/km 초과 시 5 만원으로 설정하였다. 소비자와 자동차 제작사는 각각 자동차 구매에 따른 효용과 자동차 판매에 의한 순이익을 높이기 위한 의사결정을 한다. 소비자는 자동차의 가격과 연비, 주유비, 충전시간, 총주행거리 등을 고려하여 효용을 판단하며 제품의 효용이 높을수록 구매 확률이 높아진다. 4가지 자동차에 대한 소비자의 구매 확률은 자동차의 판매율과 같다고 가정하였다. 자동차 제작사의 판매 순이익은 판매가와 생산 단가, 규제 비용, 연구 및 생산 시설 비용에 따라 결정된다. 이 중에서 자동차의 판매가를 결정할 때에는 가격이 올라갈수록 판매 이익이 증가하지만 소비자의 이탈이 일어나 판매율이 감소할 수 있다. 소비자와 자동차 제작사 간의 상호 영향에 따라 최적의 제품 가격과 이에 따른 자동차 시장의 점유율을 계산하는 모델을 작성하였다. 이를 통해 얻은 2030년 준중형 자동차 판매 비율은 기존의 온실가스 규제가 적용된다고 가정하였을 때, 내연기관 27.7%, 하이브리드 29.3%, 플러그인 하이브리드 10.4%, 전기차 32.6%이다. 마지막으로 온실가스 규제에 전과정 배출량을 적용하여 시중의 자동차에 대한 규제를 시행할 때 나타나게 될 영향에 대해 분석하였다. 연료 생산 단계의 온실가스 배출량에 의한 영향을 효과적으로 관찰하기 위하여 해당 영향이 두드러지게 나타나는 전기 발전 과정에 대해 집중하여 살펴보았다. 발전 원료의 생산 과정과 발전, 송배전 효율을 모두 포함한 전기의 전과정 온실가스 배출량은 2030년의 전력 수급계획을 기준으로 562 g/kWh이다. 전기의 전과정 온실가스 배출량이 0부터 1068 g/kWh까지 변화할 때, 차종에 따른 온실가스 배출량과 이로 인한 자동차 시장의 제품 가격과 판매율, 소비자의 총 소유 비용, 정부의 총 수입이 어떻게 달라지는지 평가하였다. 주행 과정에서 주로 전기를 사용하는 플러그인 하이브리드 자동차와 전기 자동차는 발전단의 전과정 온실가스 배출량 변화에 큰 영향을 받게 된다. 전기의 전과정 온실가스 배출량이 700 g/kWh에 이르면 전기차의 전과정 온실가스 배출량은 하이브리드 자동차와 비슷해진다. 또한 석탄 100%의 전력 믹스에서 전기차의 온실가스 배출량은 휘발유 자동차의 전과정 온실가스 배출량과 같다. 기존의 온실가스 규제에서 자동차 주행 단계의 온실가스 배출량에 대해서만 평가하였을 때에는 발전 믹스가 달라지더라도 자동차에서 배출되는 온실가스에는 전혀 영향이 없다. 이러한 차이는 자동차의 제품 가격에 영향을 미치게 된다. 자동차 제품 가격에는 규제 비용이 포함되어 있기 때문에, 온실가스 배출량이 높을수록 범칙금으로 인해 가격이 높아지며, 온실가스 배출량이 낮을수록 탄소 배출권 거래제에 따른 보상으로 제품 가격이 낮아진다. 이는 전과정 온실가스 규제에서 발전 믹스의 변화에 따라 전기차의 가격이 달라질 수 있음을 의미한다. 발전단의 온실가스 배출량이 작을수록 전기차의 가격이 더 낮아져, 시장 점유율이 높아질 것이며, 발전단의 온실가스 배출량이 커지면 전기차의 가격이 상승하면서 시장 점유율이 낮아지게 된다. 즉, 전과정 온실가스 규제에서는 연료의 생산 과정의 온실가스 배출량 변화가 자동차 시장의 점유율에 영향을 미치는 것을 의미한다. 새로운 전과정 온실가스 규제에서 준중형 자동차 시장의 판매 비율은 내연기관 25.4~37.2%, 하이브리드 자동차 28.3~41.5%, 플러그인 하이브리드 자동차 11.1~5.8%, 전기차 35.2~15.5%로 나타났다. 각 판매율의 범위는 전기의 전과정 배출량이 0 g/kWh일 때부터 1068 g/kWh일 때까지를 의미한다. 이러한 자동차 시장의 변화가 소비자와 정부, 온실가스 배출량에 미치는 영향을 분석하여 새로운 규제가 미치게 될 영향에 대해 평가하였다. 소비자의 총 소유 비용은 자동차 구입 가격과 소유 기간동안의 주유비, 유지비용, 보험 등을 포함하는 값이다. 2030년에 자동차를 구매한 소비자 1명의 총 소유비용은 기존의 온실가스 규제에서 평균 4750만 원이며, 전과정 온실가스 규제에서는 4550~4800 만 원으로 나타났다. 자동차 판매에 따른 정부의 순 수입은 유류세 세입과 온실가스 범칙금으로 인한 세입의 합에 전기차 충전시설 건설에 따른 제한 비용으로 나타내었다. 2030년에 자동차 50만 대를 판매했을 때, 1년 간 정부의 총 수입은 기존의 온실가스 규제에서 평균 1조 6000억 원이며, 전과정 온실가스 규제에서는 1조 3700억~3조 3700억 원으로 나타났다. 자동차의 온실가스 배출량은 평균 전과정 온실가스 배출량으로 나타내었다. 이는 2030년에 판매된 자동차가 주행 과정에서 배출하는 온실가스 외에도 생산, 발전, 수입, 수송 단계에서 배출하는 모든 온실가스 배출량을 합산함으로써 국가 전체의 온실가스 감축 목표에 얼마나 영향을 미치는지에 대한 지표로써 활용할 수 있다. 기존의 온실가스 규제에서 42.8% 점유율을 차지하는 플러그인 자동차와 전기자동차의 온실가스 배출량이 발전 믹스의 변화에 따라 달라지기 때문에, 평균 온실가스 배출량 또한 78.2~145.6 g-CO2-eq./km로 변화한다. 그런데 전과정 온실가스 규제에서는 플러그인 차와 전기차의 온실가스 배출량 변화와 더불어, 자동차의 점유율이 함께 변하기 때문에 평균 온실가스 배출량은 73.7~139.6 g-CO2-eq./km로 변화하게 된다. 이를 통해 전과정 온실가스 규제에서 발전단의 온실가스 배출량이 감소하면 전기차의 점유율이 증가하여 온실가스 감축 효과를 증폭시키며, 발전단의 온실가스 배출량이 증가하면 전기차의 점유율이 줄어들면서 온실가스 배출량이 증가하는 것을 상쇄시키는 효과가 나타나는 것을 확인하였다. 이는 자동차 연료의 생산 과정에서의 온실가스 배출량이 달라짐에 따라 자동차 시장이 유동적으로 반응하는 전과정 온실가스 규제의 장점을 드러낸다. ; Various regulations are in place around the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming problems. In the road transportation sector, greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced through fuel economy standard or greenhouse gas standard. The characteristic of this regulation is that the emission of greenhouse gas emissions from the exhaust port is zero for vehicles in electric driving mode, and additional incentives are provided. However, the electric vehicle does not emit GHG while driving the vehicle, but greenhouse gas is generated in the process of obtaining electricity required for driving the vehicle. Besides, various discussions have been made on estimating GHG emissions in the electric driving mode as 0, ignoring the upstream greenhouse gases. Especially in recent years such discussions have become more specific. In particular, Japan's new fuel economy standards announced that it would use vehicle fuel economy corrected using the Well-to-Tank efficiency of the fuel production stage. Accordingly, in Korea, it is necessary to predict and evaluate the effects of applying life cycle analysis results on fuel economy regulation and greenhouse gas regulation. There are two main reasons why the consideration of the fuel production process, especially upstream of electricity, is needed. First, the demand for electricity will increase as demand for electric vehicles increases in the future. Second, greenhouse gas emissions during the electricity production process are depending on the type of power generation. In this situation, life cycle analysis can be used as a tool to quantitatively evaluate the environmental friendliness of various fuels and vehicles. Well-to-wheel (WTW) analysis refers to the life cycle analysis of automotive fuels and represents the life cycle process, from oil production to the vehicle operation. The life cycle process of the electric vehicle includes the vehicle driving process, the power generation process, and the production process of power generation raw materials. For the sake of a fair comparison, the internal combustion engine car includes all related fuel production processes such as gasoline and diesel, just like electric vehicles. In this study, I proposed the life-cycle GHG regulation regulated based on the life-cycle GHG emission value of automobile fuel and evaluated the effect of the new GHG standards on the vehicle market and stakeholders. It also showed that the national energy policy could be linked to the automobile policy through Well-to-wheel standards. The research order of this study is as follows. First, a life cycle analysis of automobile fuels in Korea was performed, and future life cycle greenhouse gas emissions were predicted. Next, the GHG emission regulations and penalties for life cycle regulation were established, and a model was designed to predict the mutual influence between the government, consumers, and automobile manufacturers based on the actor-based model. Using this model, the vehicle market prediction model can be used to predict how a car manufacturer will set a price for a product and what product a consumer will buy. Third, I analyzed the social phenomena that apply life cycle GHG regulations to the life cycle analysis results and automobile market prediction model. The automotive GHG life cycle analysis is divided into the well-to-tank (WTT) process, which means the process from raw material extraction to refueling or filling the car, and the tank-to-wheel (TTW) process, which means the car driving process. For gasoline cars, hybrid cars, plug-in hybrid cars, and electric cars, the GHGs emitted during the TTW process are 138.7, 94.6, 13.2, and 0 g-CO2-eq./km, respectively. The WTW GHG emissions were calculated for four vehicles in the order of 160.9, 109.9, 89.3, 85.0 g-CO2-eq./km. The difference in TTW GHG emissions between gasoline vehicle and electric vehicle is 138.7 g-CO2-eq./km, but the difference in WTW GHG emissions is 75.9 g-CO2-eq./km. Next, I used an agent-based model to design a model that predicts the automotive market for 2030. An agent-based model is an analytical technique used to predict decision-making of actors that influence and influence each other in socio-economic environments. In this study, the government, consumers, and automobile manufacturers were selected as agents involved in the vehicle market. The goal of the GHG emission regulation is set by comprehensively considering the national GHG reduction target, the potential reduction in the transport sector, and the manufacturers' interests. The GHG standard in Korea has announced its targets by 2020, and no future targets have been announced. Therefore, the average TTW and WTW emissions are inferred from the goal of alternative vehicle supply in Korea in 2030. The target value of original GHG standards is 62.2 g / km, and the target value of proposed GHG standards is 109.2 g / km. Penalty rates for failure to achieve GHG regulations were set at 50,000 won when exceeding 1 g/km. Consumers and manufacturers make decisions to increase the utility of car purchases and the net profit from car sales, respectively. Consumers determine their utility in consideration of the price, fuel economy, fueling cost, charging time, and total driving distance of their vehicles. The automaker's net profit is determined by retail prices, production costs, regulatory costs, and research and production facility costs. The vehicle market prediction model was designed to calculate the optimal product price and the market share according to the mutual influence between consumers and manufacturers. Third, I analyzed the impact that would occur when implementing GHG standards on the vehicle market by applying WTW emissions to GHG regulation. In order to effectively observe the effects of greenhouse gas emissions during the fuel production phase, I have focused on the electricity generation process in which the impact is prominent. Assessing how life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions vary from zero to 1068 g/kWh, resulting in changes in greenhouse gas emissions by vehicle type, resulting in product prices and sales rates in the automotive market, total cost of ownership for consumers, and gross government revenues. As a result, the vehicle market applying the WTW standards has the following characteristics. First, the vehicle market is directly affected by the upstream emissions of the fuel. The original standard regulates the vehicle's Tank-to-Wheel GHG emissions, and the proposed standard regulates the vehicle's Well-to-Wheel GHG emissions. Thus, when the GHG emissions of the electricity production process change, the proposed standard is affected, but the original standard is not. In this study, the regulation cost is determined by the difference between the vehicle's GHG emissions and the GHG target value. The regulation cost is included in the vehicle retail price, which means that the price of the vehicle may change in the proposed standard. As a result, changes in market share due to changes in upstream emissions helped to reduce or offset the increase in total GHG emissions. Sales of PHEV and BEV declined as upstream GHG increased, while sales of PHEV and BEV increased as upstream GHG decreased. In this study, the vehicle market responded flexibly to changes in upstream emission under proposed standards. Second, when the generation mix is the same as Korea's development plan for 2030, the total GHG emissions of the proposed standard will be greater than that of the original standard. This is because the gap between ICEV and BEV is reduced when regulating WTW emissions of vehicles rather than regulating TTW emissions. As a result, sales volume of ICEV and HEV increased, and the sales volume of PHEV and BEV decreased in the proposed standard. In this study, four scenarios are proposed to solve the problem of increasing greenhouse gas emissions under the proposed standard. The four methods are to increase the penalty rate, improve engine efficiency, improve the ratio of PHEV and BEV, and reduce battery price. Besides, this study evaluated the impacts of consumers and governments on four scenarios. The impact of each agent on GHG standards is expressed in terms of TCO and GOV income. The results of this study have the limitation that the total GHG emissions under the WTW standard are higher than those under the TTW standard at the power generation mix level in Korea in 2030. This result arises the concern that the WTW standard are less effective than the TTW standard to reduce the GHG emissions. To solve this concern, this study suggests the development of vehicle technology, reduction of battery price, and increase of penalty rate. However, there are two problems: 1. Difficulty of direct intervention through the policy, 2. GHG reduction effect is greater in TTW regulation with the new technology. Therefore, there is a need to make meaningful suggestions for the phenomenon that seems to increase GHG emission due to the proposed standard. I suggested the two power generation mixes that represent important features. ; Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Research background 1 1.2. Research objectives 11 1.3. Research scope 15 Chapter 2. Well-to-Wheel analysis 16 2.1. Introduction 16 2.2. Previous researches 16 2.3. Well-to-Wheel processes approach and methodology 18 2.4. Well-to-Wheel analysis of automotive fuels in Korea 21 2.4.1. Petroleum-based fuel 21 2.4.2. Natural gas 22 2.4.3. Electricity 24 2.4.4. Hydrogen 28 2.5. WTW GHG emissions results in 2017 33 2.6. Future prediction 36 Chapter 3. Agent-based analysis 41 3.1. Introduction 41 3.2. Previous researches 43 3.3. Methodology – Key parameters and assumptions 45 3.3.1. Policymaker – Manage the nationwide greenhouse gas emission standard 45 3.3.2. Manufacturer - Decision of vehicle fuel economy and price to maximize profit 47 3.3.3. Consumer – Select the vehicle with the highest utility 49 3.4. Responses of the agents to the GHG emission standard - Mathematical approach 55 3.4.1. Nash equilibrium 55 3.4.2. Mathematical approach (1) – Excluding the fixed cost 56 3.4.3. Mathematical approach (2) – Including the fixed cost 61 3.5. Model validation and sensitivity analysis 65 Chapter 4. Results and Discussion 71 4.1. Evaluation of WTW GHG standards using the WTW results and market prediction model 71 4.1.1. How to read the results graphs 71 4.1.2. Definition of six results parameters - No standard case 73 4.2. Comparison of the effect of original standard (TTW standard) and proposed standard (WTW standard) 80 4.3. How to reduce the total GHG emissions in 2030, with proposed standards 88 Chapter 5. Conclusion 93 Bibliography 97 국문 초록 104 ; Doctor
1. Introduction Biodiesel (BD) is a liquid biofuel that is defined as a fatty acid methyl ester fulfilling standards such as the ones set by European (EN 14214) and the American (ASTM 6751) regulations. BD is obtained by the transesterification (Scheme 1.1) or alcoholysis of natural triglycerides contained in vegetable oils, animal fats, waste fats and greases, waste cooking oils (WCO) or side-stream products of refined edible oil production with short-chain alcohols, usually methanol or ethanol and using an alkaline homogeneous catalyst (Perego and Ricci, 2012). Scheme 1.1. Transesterification reaction. BD presents several advantages over petroleum-based diesel such as: biodegradability, lower particulate and common air pollutants (CO, SOx emissions, unburned hydrocarbons) emissions, absence of aromatics and a closed CO2 cycle. Refined, low acidity oilseeds (e.g. those derived from sunflower, soy, rapeseed, etc.) may be easily converted into BD, but their exploitation significantly raises the production costs, resulting in a biofuel that is uncompetitive with the petroleum-based diesel (Santori et al., 2012; Lotero et al., 2005). Moreover, the use of the aforementioned oils generated a hot debate about a possible food vs. fuel conflict, i.e. about the risk of diverting farmland or crops at the expense of food supply. It is so highly desirable to produce BD from crops specifically selected for their high productivity and low water requirements (Bianchi et al., 2011; Pirola et al., 2011), or from low-cost feedstock such as used frying oils (Boffito et al., 2012a) and animal fats (Bianchi et al., 2010). The value of these second generation biofuels, i.e. produced from crop and forest residues and from non-food energy crops, is acknowledged by the European Community, which states in its RED directive (European Union, RED Directive 2009/28/EC): ''For the purposes of demonstrating compliance with national renewable energy obligations […], the contribution made by biofuels produced from wastes, residues, non-food cellulosic material, and ligno-cellulosic material shall be considered to be twice that made by other biofuels''. However, the presence of free fatty acids in the feedstock, occurring in particular in the case of not refined oils, causes the formation of soaps as a consequence of the reaction with the alkaline catalyst. This hinders the contact between reagents and the catalyst and makes difficult the products separation. Many methods have been proposed to eliminate FFA during or prior to transesterification (Pirola et al., 2011; Santori et al., 2012). Among these the FFA pre-esterification method is a very interesting approach to lower the acidity since it allows to lower the acid value as well as to obtain methyl esters already in this preliminary step (Boffito et al., 2012a, 2012b; 2012c Bianchi et al., 2010, 2011; Pirola et al., 2010, 2011). Aims of the work The aims of this work are framed in the context of the entire biodiesel production chain, ranging from the choice of the raw material, through its standardization to the actual biodiesel production. The objectives can be therefore summarized as follows: Assessing the potential of some vegetable or waste oils for biodiesel production by their characterization, deacidification and final transformation into biodiesel; To test different ion exchange resins and sulphated inorganic systems as catalysts in the FFA esterification; To assess the use of ultrasound to assist the sol-gel synthesis of inorganic sulphated oxides to be used as catalysts in the FFA esterification reaction; To assess the use of sonochemical techniques such as ultrasound and microwave to promote both the FFA esterification and transesterification reaction. 2. Experimental details 2.1 Catalysts In this work, three kinds of acid ion exchange resins were used as catalysts for the FFA esterification: Amberlyst®15 (A15), Amberlyst®46 (A46) (Dow Chemical) and Purolite®D5081 (D5081). Their characteristic features are given in Tab. 2.1. Various sulphated inorganic catalysts, namely sulphated zirconia, sulphated zirconia+titania and sulphated tin oxide were synthesized using different techniques. Further details will be given as the results inherent to these catalysts will be presented. Catalyst A15 A46 D5081 Physical form opaque beads Type Macroreticular Matrix Styrene-DVB Cross-linking degree medium medium high Functional group -SO3H Functionalization internal external external external Form dry wet wet Surface area (m2 g-1) 53 75 514a Ave. Dp (Ǻ) 300 235 37a Total Vp (ccg-1) 0.40 0.15 0.47 Declared Acidity (meq H+g-1) 4.7 0.43 0.90-1.1 Measured acidity (meq H+g-1) 4.2 0.60 1.0 Moisture content (%wt) 1.6 26-36 55-59 Shipping weight (g l-1) 610 600 1310a Max. operating temp (K) 393 393 403 Tab. 2.1. Features of the ion exchange resins used as catalysts. The acidity of all the catalysts was determined by ion exchange followed by pH determination as described elsewhere (López et al., 2007; Boffito et al., 2012a; 2012b). Specific surface areas were determined by BET (Brunauer, Emmett and Teller, 1938) and pores sizes distribution with BJH method (Barrett, Joyner and Halenda, 1951). XRD, XPS SEM-EDX and HR-TEM analyses were performed in the case of catalysts obtained with the use of ultrasound (Boffito et al. 2012a). Qualitative analyses of Lewis and Brønsted acid sites by absorption of a basic probe followed by FTIR analyses was also carried out for this class of catalysts (Boffito et al, 2012a). 2.2 Characterization of the oils Oils were characterized for what concerns acidity (by acid-base titrations) as reported by Boffito et al. (2012a, 2012b; 2012c), iodine value (Hannus method (EN 14111:2003)), saponification value (ASTM D5558), peroxide value and composition by GC analyses of the methyl ester yielded by the esterification and transesterification. Cetane number and theoretical values of the same properties were determined using equations already reported elsewhere (Winayanuwattikun et al., 2008). 2.3 Esterification and transesterification reactions In Tab. 2.2, the conditions adopted in both the conventional and sonochemically-assisted esterification are reported. For all these experiments a temperature of 336 K was adopted. Vials were used to test the sulphated inorganic oxides, while Carberry reactor (confined catalyst) (Boffito et al., 201c) was used just for the FFA esterification of cooking oil. Rector oil (+ FFA) (g) MeOH (g) catalyst amount vial 21 3.4 5%wt/gFFA sulphated inorganic catalysts slurry 100 16 - 10 g ion exchange resins - 5%wt/gF FA sulphated inorganic catalysts Carberry 300 48 10 g (5 g in each basket) Tab. 2.2. Free fatty acids esterification reaction conditions for conventional and sonochemically-assisted experiments. All the sonochemically-assisted experiments were performed in a slurry reactor. FFA conversions were determined by acid-base titrations of oil samples withdrawn from the reactors at pre-established times and calculated as follows: "FFA conversion (%)=" (〖"FFA" 〗_"t=0" "-" 〖"FFA" 〗_"t" )/〖"FFA" 〗_"t=0" " x 100" In Tab. 2.3, the conditions of both the conventional and ultrasound (US)-assisted transesterification are reported. KOH and CH3ONa were used for conventional experiments, while just KOH for the US-assisted experiments. The BD yield was determined by GC (FID) analysis of the methyl esters. Method Reactor Step gMeOH/100 goil gKOH/100 goil Temp. (K) Time (min) traditional batch step 1 20 1.0 333 90 step 2 5.0 0.50 60 US-assisted batch step 1 20 1.0 313, 333 30 US-assisted continuos step 1 20 1.0 338 30 Tab. 2.3. Transesterification reaction conditions. 3. Results and Discussion 3.1 Characterization and deacidification of different oils by ion exchange resins: assessment of the potential for biodiesel production In Tab. 3.1 the results of the characterization of the oils utilized in this work are displayed. The value in parentheses indicate the theoretical value of the properties, calculated basing on the acidic composition. The acidity of all the oils exceeds 0.5%wt (~0.5 mgKOH/g), i.e. the acidity limit recommended by both the European normative (EN 14214) and American standard ASTM 6751 on biodiesel (BD). The iodine value (IV) is regulated by the EN 14214, which poses an upper limit of 120 gI2/100 g. The number of saturated fatty chains in the fuel determines its behaviour at low temperatures, influencing parameters such as the cloud point, the CFPP (cold filter plugging point) and the freezing point (Winayanuwattikun et al., 2008). The IV are in most of the cases similar to the ones calculated theoretically. When the experimental IV differs from the theoretical one, it is in most of the cases underestimated. This can be explained considering the peroxide numbers (PN), which indicates the concentration of O2 bound to the fatty alkyl chains and is therefore an index of the conservation state of oil. Oils with high IV usually have a high concentration of peroxides, whereas fats with low IV have a relatively low concentration of peroxides at the start of rancidity (King et al., 1933). Moreover, although PN is not specified in the current BD fuel standards, it may affect cetane number (CN), a parameter that is regulated by the standards concerning BD fuel. Increasing PN increases CN, altering the ignition delay time. Saponification number (SN) is an index of the number of the fatty alkyl chains that can be saponified. The long chain fatty acids have a low SN because they have a relatively fewer number of carboxylic functional groups per mass unit of fat compared to short chain fatty acids. In most of the cases the experimental SN are lower than the ones calculated theoretically. This can be explained always considering the PN, indicating a high concentration of oxygen bound to the fatty alkyl chains. Oil Acidity (%wt) IV1 (gI2/ 100 g) PN2 (meqO2 /kg) SN3 (mg KOH/g) CN4 Fatty acids composition (%wt) animal fat (lard)* 5.87 51 2.3 199 62.3 n.d. soybean* 5.24 138 3.8 201 42.4 n.d. tobacco1 1.68 143 (149) 21.9 199 (202) 41.6 (39.8) C14:0 (2.0) C16:0 (8.3) C18:0 (1.5) C18:1 (12.0) C18:2 (75.3) C18:3 (0.6) C20:0 (0.1) C22:0 (0.2) sunflower* 3.79 126 3.7 199 45.4 n.d. WSO5 0.50 118 (129) 71.3 187 (200) 48.9 (44.6) C16:0 (6.9) C18:0 (0.9) C18:1 (40.1) C18:2 (50.9) C18:3 (0,3) C20:0 (0.1) C20:1 (0.4) C22:0 (0.4) palm 2.71 54.0 (53.0) 12.3 201 (208) 61.3 (60.6) 16:0 (43.9) 18:0 (5.6) 18:1 (40.5) 18:2 (8.6) WCO6 2.10 53.9 (50.7) 11.0 212 (196) 59.9 (62.7) C16:0 (38.8) C18:0 (4.1) C18:1 (47.9) C18:2 (4.2) WCO:CRO =3:1 2.12 69.0 (75.5) 30.1 200 (212) 58.1 (55.1) C16:0 (30.1) C18:0 (3.1) C18:1 (51.9) C18:2 (12.0) C18:3 (2.%) C20:0 (0.2) C22:0 (0.1) WCO:CRO =1:1 2.19 76.8 (90.7) 51.3 188 (203) 58.1 (52.8) C16:0 (21.5) C18:0 (2.1) C18:1 (55.8) C18:2 (14.7) C18:3 (5.1) C20:0 (0.8) C22:0 (0.1) WCO:CRO =1:3 2.24 84.5 (104) 62.4 177 (202) 58.1 (49.9) 14:0 (0.1) 16:0 (14.7) 16:1 (0.7) 18:0 (6.85) 18:1 (40.0) 18:2 (37.0) 18:3 (0.25) 20:0 (0.25) 22:0 (0.15) rapeseed (CRO7) 2.20 118 (123) 71.6 165 (200) 52.8 (45.9) C16:0 (4.1) C18:0 (0.1) C18:1 (63.7) C18:2 (20.2) C18:3 (10.2) C20:0 (1.5) C22:0 (0.2) rapeseed* 4.17-5.12 108 (107) 3.5 203 (200) 48.9 (49.5) C16:0 (7.6) C18:0 (1.3) C18:1 (64.5) C18:2 (23.7) C18:3 (2.4) C20:0 (0.5) Brassica juncea 0.74 109 (110) 178 (185) 52.4 (51.1) C16:0 (2.4) C18:0 (1.1) C18:1 (19.9) C18:2 (19.2) C18:3 (10.9) C20:0 (7.2) C20:1 (1.7) C22:0 (0.9) C22:1 (34.8) 24:0 (1.9) safflower 1.75 139 48.9 170 47.1 n.d. WCO: tobacco2 =1:1 4.34 119 (112) 56.0 191 (203) 48.1 (48.0) C16:0 (22.5) C18:0 (3.2) C18:1 (32.0) C18:2 (42.1) C18:3 (0.2) tobacco2 6.17 141 (151) 33.4 183 (201) 44.4 (39.5) C16:0 (8.7) C18:0 (1.6) C18:1 (12.8) C18:2 (76.0) C18:3 (0.7) C20:0 (0.1) C22:0 (0.1) 1Iodine value; 2Peroxide number; 3Saponification number; 4Cetane number; 5Winterized sunflower oil, 6Waste cooking oil; 7Crude rapeseed oil; * refined, commercial oils acidified with pure oleic acid up to the indicated value. Tab. 3.1. Results of the characterization of the oils. The results of the FFA esterification performed on the different oils are given in Fig. 3.1. Fig. 3.1. Results of the FFA esterification reaction on different oils. The dotted line represents a FFA concentration equal to 0.5%wt, i.e. the limit required by both the European and American directives on BD fuel and to perform the transesterification reaction avoiding excessive soaps formation. The FFA esterification method is able to lower the acidity of most of the oils using the ion exchange resins A46 and D5081 as catalysts in the adopted reaction conditions. High conversion was obtained with A15 at the first use of the catalyst, but then its catalytic activity drastically drops after each cycle. The total loss of activity was estimated to be around 30% within the 5 cycles (results not shown for the sake of brevity). A possible explanation concerning this loss of activity may be related to the adsorption of the H2O yielded by the esterification on the internal active sites, which makes them unavailable for catalysis. When H2O molecules are formed inside the pores, they are unable to give internal retro-diffusion due to their strong interaction with H+ sites and form an aqueous phase inside the pores. The formation of this phase prevents FFA from reaching internal active sites due to repulsive effects. What appears to influence the FFA conversion is the refinement degree of the oil. WCO is in fact harder to process in comparison to refined oils (Bianchi et al., 2010; Boffito et al., 2012c), probably due to its higher viscosity which results in limitations to the mass transfer of the reagents towards the catalyst. Indeed, the required acidity limit is not achieved within 6 hours of reaction. A FFA concentration lower than 0.5%wt is not achieved also in the case of WCO mixture 3:1 with CRO and 1:1 with tobacco oil and in the case of the second stock of tobacco oil (tobacco2). This is attributable to the very low quality of these feedstocks due to the waste nature of the oil itself, in the case of WCO, or to the poor conservation conditions in the case of tobacco oilseed. In this latter case, the low FFA conversion was also ascribed to the presence of phospholipids, responsible for the deactivation of the catalyst. BD yields ranging from 90.0 to 95.0 and from 95.0 to 99.9% were obtained from deacidified raw oils using KOH and NaOCH3 as a catalyst, respectively. In Fig. 3.2, the comparison between A46 and D5081 at different temperatures and in absence of drying pretreatment (wet catalyst) is displayed. As expected, D5081 performs better than A46 in all the adopted conditions. Nevertheless, the maximum conversion within a reaction time of 6 hours is not achieved by any of the catalysts both operating at 318 K and in the absence of drying pretreatment. A more detailed study on the FFA esterification of WCO and its blends with rapeseed oil and gasoline was carried out. In Tab. 3.2 a list of all the experiments performed with WCO is reported together with the FFA conversion achieved in each case, while in Fig. 3.3 the influence of the viscosity of the blends of WCO is shown. Fig. 3.2. Comparison between the catalysts. D5081 and A46 at a) different catalysts amounts and b) temperatures and treatments. The results show that Carberry reactor is unsuitable for FFA esterification since a good contact between reagents and catalyst is not achieved due to its confinement. A15 deactivated very rapidly, while A46 and D5081 maintained their excellent performance during all the cycles of use due to the reasons already highlighted previously. The blends of WCO and CRO show an increase of the reaction rate proportional to the content of the CRO, that is attributable to the decreases viscosity (Fig. 3.3), being all the blend characterized by the same initial acidity. Also the use of diesel as a solvent resulted in a beneficial effect for the FFA esterification reaction, contributing to the higher reaction rate. Feedstock %wtFFAt=0 Reactor Cat. gcat/100 goil gcat/100 g feedstock Number of cat. re-uses FFA conv. (%), 1st use, 6 hr 1 WCO 2.10 Carberry A15 3.3 3.3 6 15.4 2 WCO 2.10 slurry A15 10 10 6 71.7 3 WCO 2.10 Carberry A46 3.3 3.3 6 7.7 4 WCO 2.10 slurry A46 10 10 6 62.0 5 WCO 2.10 slurry D5081 10 10 6 63.7 6 CRO 2.20 slurry A46 10 10 10 95.9 7 CRO 2.20 slurry D5081 10 10 10 93.7 8 WCO 2.10 slurry A46 10 10 0 62.0 9 WCO 75 CRO 25 2.12 7.5 71.3 10 WCO 50 CRO 50 2.19 5.0 79.9 11 WCO 25 CRO 75 2.24 2.5 86.1 12 CRO 2.20 10 95.9 13 WCO 75 DIESEL 25 1.74 7.5 76.8 14 WCO 50 DIESEL 50 1.17 5.0 58.7 15 WCO 25 DIESEL 75 0.65 2.5 40.4 16 WCO 25 DIESEL 75 (higher FFA input) 2.44 2.5 63.5 Tab. 3.2. Experiments performed with waste cooking oil. . Fig. 3.3. FFA conversions and viscosities of the blend of WCO with rapeseed oil. 3.2. Sulphated inorganic oxides as catalysts for the free fatty acid esterification: conventional and ultrasound assisted synthesis Conventional syntheses In Tab. 3.3, the list of all the catalyst synthesized with conventional techniques is reported together with the results of the characterization. Catalyst Composition Prep. method precursors T calc. SSA (m2g-1) Vp (cm3g-1) meq H+g-1 1 SZ1 SO42-/ZrO2 one-pot sol-gel ZTNP1, (NH4)2SO4 893 K O2 107 0.09 0.90 2a SZ2a SO42-/ZrO2 two-pots sol-gel ZTNP, H2SO4 893 K 102 0.10 0.11 2b SZ2b SO42-/ZrO2 two-pots sol-gel ZTNP, H2SO4 653 K 110 0.10 0.12 3 SZ3 SO42-/ZrO2 Physical mixing ZrOCl2.8H2O (NH4)2SO4 873 K 81 0.11 1.3 4 SZ4 Zr(SO4)2/SiO2 Impregnation Zr(SO4)2.4H2O SiO2 873 K 331 0.08 1.4 5 SZ5 Zr(SO4)2/Al2O3 Impregnation Zr(SO4)2.4H2O Al2O3 873 K 151 0.09 0.67 6 ZS Zr(SO4)2.4H2O (commercial) - - - 13 0.12 9.6 7 STTO_0 SO42-/SnO2 Physical mixing + impregnation SnO2 TiO2 P25 H2SO4 773 K 16.8 0.10 3.15 8 STTO_5 SO42-/95%SnO2-5%TiO2 773 K 15.9 0.11 3.43 9 STTO_10 SO42-/ 90%SnO2-10%TiO2 773 K 16.5 0.09 5.07 10 STTO_15 SO42-/ 85%SnO2-15%TiO2 773 K 14.9 0.11 7.13 11 STTO_20 SO42-/ 80%SnO2-20%TiO2 773 K 16.9 0.09 7.33 Tab. 3.3. Sulphated inorganic catalysts synthesized with conventional techniques. The FFA conversions of the sulphated Zr-based systems are provided in Fig. 3.4a and show that Zr-based sulphated systems do not provide a satisfactory performance in the FFA esterification, probably due to their low acid sites concentration related to their high SSA. Even if catalysts such as SZ3 and SZ4 exhibit higher acidity compared to other catalysts, it is essential that this acidity is located mainly on the catalyst surface to be effectively reached by the FFA molecules, as in the case of ZS. In Figure 3.4b, the results of the FFA esterification tests of the sulphated Sn-Ti systems are shown. Other conditions being equal, these catalysts perform better than the sulphated Zr-based systems just described. This is more likely due to the higher acidity along with a lower surface area. With increasing the TiO2 content, the acidity increases as well. This might be ascribable to the charge imbalance resulting from the heteroatoms linkage for the generation of acid centres, (Kataota and Dumesic, 1988). As a consequence, the activity increases with the TiO2 content along with the acidity of the samples. For the sake of clarity, in Fig. 3.4c the FFA esterification conversion is represented as a function of the number of active sites per unit of surface area of the samples. Ultrasound- assisted synthesis In Tab. 3.4, the list of all the catalyst synthesized with conventional techniques is reported together with the results of the characterization. Samples SZ and SZT refer to catalysts obtained with traditional sol-gel method, while samples termed USZT refer to US-obtained sulphated 80%ZrO2-20%TiO2. The name is followed by the US power, by the length of US pulses and by the molar ratio of water over precursors. For example, USZT_40_0.1_30 indicates a sample obtained with 40% of the maximum US power, on for 0.1 seconds (pulse length) and off for 0.9 seconds, using a water/ZTNP+TTIP molar ratio equal to 30. SZT was also calcined at 773 K for 6 hours, employing the same heating rate. This sample is reported as SZT_773_6h in entry 2a. Further details about the preparation can be found in a recent study (Boffito et al., 2012b). Entry Catalyst Acid capacity (meq H+/g) SSA (m2g-1) Vp (cm3g-1) Ave. BJH Dp (nm) Zr:Ti weight ratio S/(Zr+Ti) atomic ratio 1 SZ 0.30 107 0.20 6.0 100 0.090 2 SZT 0.79 152 0.19 5.0 79:21 0.085 2a SZT_773_6h 0.21 131 0.20 5.0 n.d.1 n.d 3 USZT_20_1_30 0.92 41.7 0.12 12.5 80:20 0.095 4 USZT_40_0.1_30 1.03 47.9 0.11 9.5 81:19 0.067 5 USZT_40_0.3_30 1.99 232 0.27 4.5 81:19 0.11 6 USZT_40_0.5_7.5 1.70 210 0.20 5.0 78:22 0.086 7 USZT_40_0.5_15 2.02 220 0.20 5.0 80:20 0.13 8 USZT_40_0.5_30 2.17 153 0.20 5.0 78:22 0.12 9 USZT_40_0.5_60 0.36 28.1 0.10 10 79:21 0.092 10 USZT_40_0.7_30 1.86 151 0.16 5.0 78:22 0.11 11 USZT_40_1_15 3.06 211 0.09 7.0 80:20 0.15 12 USZT_40_1_30 1.56 44.1 0.09 7.0 80:20 0.17 Tab. 3.4. Sulphated inorganic Zr-Ti systems synthesized with ultrasound-assisted sol-gel technique. Some of the results of the characterizations are displayed in Tab. 3.4. The results of the catalytic tests are shown in Fig. 3.5 a, b and c. In Fig. 3.5a and 3.5b the FFA conversions are reported for the samples synthesized using the same or different H2O/precursors ratio, respectively. Fig. 3.5. FFA conversions of sulphated inorganic Zr-Ti systems synthesized with ultrasound-assisted sol-gel for a) the same amount of H2O, b) different amount of H2O used in the sol-gel synthesis, c) in function of the meq of H+/g of catalyst Both the addition of TiO2 and the use of US during the synthesis are able to improve the properties of the catalysts and therefore the catalytic performance in the FFA esterification. The addition of TiO2 is able to increase the Brønsted acidity and, as a consequence, the catalytic activity (compare entries 1 and 2 in Tab. 3.4). The improvement in the properties of the catalysts due the use of US is probably caused by the effects generated by acoustic cavitation. Acoustic cavitation is the growth of bubble nuclei followed by the implosive collapse of bubbles in solution as a consequence of the applied sound field. This collapse generates transient hot-spots with local temperatures and pressures of several thousand K and hundreds of atmospheres, respectively (Sehgal et al., 1979). Very high speed jets (up to 100 m/s) are also formed. As documented by Suslick and Doktycz (Suslick and Doktycz, 1990), in the presence of an extended surface, such as the surface of a catalyst, the formation of the bubbles occurs at the liquid-solid interface and, as a consequence of their implosion, the high speed jets are directed towards the surface. The use of sonication in the synthesis of catalysts can therefore improve the nucleation production rate (i.e. sol-gel reaction production rate) and the production of surface defects and deformations with the formation of brittle powders (Suslick and Doktycz, 1990). For the samples obtained with the US pulses with on/off ratio from 0.3/0.7 on, the conversion does not increase much more compared to the one achieved with the sample obtained via traditional sol-gel synthesis. Their conversion is in fact comparable (see samples USZ_40_0.3_30, USZ_40_0.5_30, USZ_40_0.7_30 and SZT in Fig. 3.5a. The similarity in the catalytic performance of these catalysts may be ascribable to the fact that they are characterized by comparable values of SSA (entries 2, 5, 8, 10 in Tab. 3.4) and, in the case of the catalysts obtained with pulses, also by comparable acidities (entries 5, 8, 10 in Tab. 3.4). A high SSA may in fact be disadvantageous for the catalysis of the reaction here studied for the reasons already highlighted in the previous sections. The best catalytic performance is reached by the sample USZT_40_1_30, i.e. the one obtained using continuous US at higher power. This catalyst results in fact in a doubled catalytic activity with respect to the samples prepared either with the traditional synthesis or with the use of pulsed US. In spite the acidity of this catalyst is lower than that of the samples obtained with the US pulses, it is characterized by a rather low surface area (entry 12 in Tab. 3.4) that can be associated with a localization of the active sites mainly on its outer surface. As evidenced by the FTIR measurements (not reported for the sake of brevity), it is also important to highlight, that only in the case of the USZT_40_1_30 sample, a not negligible number of medium-strong Lewis acid sites is present at the surface, together with a high number of strong Brønsted acid centres. The XRD patterns of the samples were typical of amorphous systems, due to the low calcination temperatures. Samples calcined for a long time (SZT_773_6h) exhibit almost no catalytic activity (results not reported for the sake of brevity). This catalytic behaviour might be ascribable to the loss of part of the sulphates occurred during the calcinations step that result also in a very low acid capacity (see Tab. 3.4). For the sake of clarity, in Fig. 3.5c the FFA conversions as a function of the concentration of the acid sites normalized to the surface area are reported for the most significant samples. For what concerns how the water/precursors ratio affects the catalysts acidity, some general observations can be made: increasing it up to a certain amount increases the H+ concentration (compare entries from 6 to 9 and 11 to 12 in Tab. 3.4) because the rate of the hydrolysis and the number of H2O molecules that can be chemically bounded increases. Nevertheless, increasing the water/precursor ratio over a certain amount (30 for pulsed and 15 for continuous US, entries 8 and 11 in Tab. 3.4, respectively), seems to have a negative effect on the acidity concentration. In fact, the risk of the extraction of acid groups by the excess of water increases as well and the US power density decreases. 3.3 Sonochemically-assisted esterification and transesterification Esterification In Tab. 3.5 a list of the sonochemically-assisted esterification experiments is displayed together with the final acidities achieved after 4 hours of reaction. The reactor used for these experiments, provided with both an US horn (20 kHz) and a MW emitter (2450 MHz) is described elsewhere in detail (Ragaini et al., 2012). Standard calorimetric measurements were carried out to measure the actual emitted power (Suslick and Lorimer, 1989). Considering entries from 1 to 6 (rapeseed oil with high acidity), a final acidity lower than 0.5%wt is achieved within 4 hours operating at the conventional temperature of 336 K with all the methods, while this does not happen operating at lower temperatures. In particular, the lowest acidity is achieved at 336 K with MW. Considering entries from 7 to 12, inherent to the raw tobacco oilseed, final acidities lower than 0.5%wt are achieved only with the use of US. It is remarkable that at the temperature of 293 K the FFA esterification reaction rate results 6X faster than the conventional process at the same temperature. In the case of the rapeseed oil with low acidity (entries from 13 to 20), the use of MW increases the FFA conversion at 293 K and 313 K but not at 336 K. Moreover, the higher the applied power, the higher the FFA conversion. Oil Initial acidity (%wt) Cat. Technique Temp. (K) Emitted power (W) Tthermostat (K) Final acidity (%wt), 4 hr 1 Rapeseed oil (5)* 4.2-5.0 A46 conventional 313 - 315 1.18 2 336 338 0.50 3 ultrasound 313 38.5 293 0.55 4 336 313 0.48 5 microwaves 313 61.4 293 0.69 6 336 313 0.32 7 Tobacco 1.17 A46 conventional 293 - 293 0.97 8 313 315 0.55 9 336 338 0.45 10 ultrasound 293 38.5 277 0.48 11 313 293 0.46 12 336 313 0.30 13 Rapeseed oil (2)* 2.0-2.3 D5081 conventional 293 - 277 0.82 14 313 315 0.44 15 336 338 0.25 16 microwaves 293 31.7 277 0.73 17 313 31.7 293 0.34 18 61.4 293 0.37 19 336 31.7 313 0.29 20 61.4 313 0.25 Tab. 3.5. Sonochemically-assisted esterification experiments. The positive effects of acoustic-cavitation in liquid-solid systems are ascribable to the asymmetric collapse of the bubbles in the vicinity of the solid surface. When a cavitation bubble collapses violently near a solid surface, liquid jets are produced and high-speed jets of liquid are driven into the surface of a particle. These jets and shock waves improve both the liquid–solid and liquid-liquid mass transfer (Mason and Lorimer, 1988). MW is considered as a non-conventional heating system: when MW pass through a material with a dipole moment, the molecules composing the material try to align with the electric field (Mingos et al., 1997). Polar molecules have stronger interactions with the electric field. Polar ends of the molecules tend in fact to align themselves and oscillate in step with the oscillating electric field. Collisions and friction between the moving molecules results in heating (Toukoniitty et al., 2005). The increase of the FFA conversion as the power increases may be attributed to the fact that more power is delivered to the system and, therefore, the enhanced temperature effects caused by electromagnetic irradiation are increased with respect to lower powers. Differently the reason why a too high power was detrimental at the temperature of 336 K could be accounted for by two factors: i) the acoustic cavitation is enhanced at lower temperatures due to the higher amount of gas dissolved; ii) possible generation of too high temperatures inside the reaction medium that could have caused the removal of methanol from the system through constant evaporation or pyrolysis. Transesterification Transesterification experiments were performed on rapeseed oil both in batch and continuous mode. For the batch experiments two kinds of reactors were used: a traditional reaction vessel and a Rosett cell reactor, both with two ultrasound horns with different tip diameters (13 and 20 mm), and operating powers. A Rosett cell is a reactor designed to promote hydrodynamic cavitation through its typical loops placed at the bottom of vessel. Sonicators used in this work were provided by Synetude Company (Chambery, France). In Fig. 3.6, results from the conventional and the US-assisted batch experiments are compared. The US methods allows to attain very high yields in much shorter times than the traditional method and using less reagents (see Tab. 2.3) in just one step. The beneficial effects given by the US are attributable to the generation of acoustic cavitation inside the reaction medium leading to the phenomena already described in the case of esterification reaction. In particular, with the use of the Rosett cell reactor, BD yields of 96.5% (dotted lined) are achieved after 10 minutes of reaction. This is likely due to the combined approach exploiting acoustic cavitation along with hydrodynamic cavitation, which is able to provide a very efficient mixing inside the system. The use of the Rosett cell reactor provided transesterification reaction rates up to 15X faster than the conventional process. Continuous experiments were performed using two tubular reactors with different volumes (0.070 L at 35 KHz and 0.700 L at 20 kHz) and different US powers (19.3 and 68.3 W, respectively). The volume of the treated reagents was varied to obtain the same power density in both the reactors. Results are presented in Fig. 3.7. BD yields higher than 96.5% were obtained in the case of the small reactor within a reaction time of ~5 minutes. It is remarkable that BD yields higher than 90% were obtained using pulsed US (2 seconds on, 2 seconds off) after only 18 seconds, corresponding to just one passage in the reactor. In this case the transesterification reaction rate was 300X faster than the conventional process. The beneficial effects of pulses for the reactivity of the transesterification have been extensively reported (Chand et al., 2010; Kumar et al., 2010). In particular, as reported by Chand, when pulses are adopted, excessive heating of the reaction medium is not promoted, so preventing the loss of the gases dissolved in the system that are necessary for the acoustic cavitation to occur. Moreover, excessive heating during the transesterification reaction might lead to evaporation followed by pyrolysis of methanol and its subsequent removal from the reaction environment. 4. Conclusions As a conclusion to this work, some final remarks can be claimed: Feedstocks with a high potential for biodiesel (BD) production are Brassica juncea oilseed, which can be used as feedstock for BD100, Carthamus tinctorus, tobacco, animal fat and waste cooking oil to be used in BD blends with other oils or in diesel blends. However, blending different oils among them or with diesel already during the free fatty acids (FFA) esterification reaction may increase the reaction rate due to the lowered viscosity. Free fatty acids esterification over acid ion exchange resins in slurry reactors remains the preferred method of oils deacidification due to the optimal contact between the reagents and the catalyst and the good durability over time. The final high BD yields obtained for the oils de-acidified with the pre-esterification method over sulphonic ion exchange resins demonstrate its effectiveness in lowering the acidity and the possibility of obtaining high quality biodiesel from the selected feedstocks. Surface acidity and specific surface area of sulphated inorganic systems can be increased by both adding TiO2 and using ultrasound (US) in precise experimental conditions to assist the sol-gel synthesis of the catalysts. Changing the experimental conditions of US during the sol-gel synthesis makes also possible to tune the properties of the catalysts. In spite of not satisfying FFA conversions were obtained, US-assisted sol-gel synthesis turns out to be an extremely interesting method to obtain catalysts with high acidity and surface area. Both US and microwaves (MW) enhanced the FFA esterification reaction rate at temperatures lower than the one used conventionally (336 K). The positive effects of US are attributable to the phenomena generated inside the reaction medium by the acoustic cavitation, while MW are able to generate temperature effects localized in the proximity of the catalyst surface and to increase MeOH-oil solubility. US-assisted transesterification reaction is much faster than conventional transesterification: BD yields higher than 96.5% were achieved in most of the cases within 10 minutes of reaction, whereas the conventional method requires 150 minutes, besides higher reagents amount and higher temperatures. In particular, BD yields higher than 90% were obtained using a continuous reactor and pulsed US within 18 seconds, corresponding to just one passage in the reactor. In this case the transesterification reaction rate resulted to be 300X faster than the conventional process. Suggestions for the continuations of the work concern the further study of the synthesis of sulphated inorganic systems such as SO42-/ZrO2 or SnO2 or TiO2 with US and MW. Future work should also be devoted to the optimization of the experimental variables related to the use of MW and US to promote both FFA esterification and transesterification reactions. References Barrett E.P., Joyner L.G., Halenda P.P., "The determination of pore volume and area distributions in porous substances. I. Computations from nitrogen isotherms", J. Am. Chem. Soc. 1951, 73, 373. Bianchi C.L., Boffito D.C., Pirola C., Ragaini V., "Low temperature de-acidification process of animal fat as a pre-step to biodiesel production", Catal. Lett., 2010, 134, 179. Bianchi C.L., Pirola C., Boffito D.C., Di Fronzo A., Carvoli G., Barnabè D., A. Rispoli, R. Bucchi, "Non edible oils: raw materials for sustainable biodiesel", in Stoytcheva M., Montero G. (Eds.): Biodiesel Feedstocks and Processing Technologies, Intech, 2011, pp. 3-22. Boffito D.C., Pirola C., Galli F., Di Michele A., Bianchi C.L., "Free Fatty Acids Esterification of Waste Cooking Oil and its mixtures with Rapeseed Oil and Diesel", Fuel, 2012a, accepted on 19th October 2012, DOI:10.1016/j.fuel.2012.10.069. Boffito D.C., Crocellà V., Pirola C., Neppolian B., Cerrato G., Ashokkumar M., Bianchi C.L., "Ultrasonic enhancement of the acidity, surface area and free fatty acids esterification catalytic activity of sulphated ZrO2-TiO2 systems", J. Catal., 2012b, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcat.2012.09.013 Boffito D.C., Pirola C., Bianchi C.L., "Heterogeneous catalysis for free fatty acids esterification rea.ction as a first step towards biodiesel production", Chem, Today, 2012c, 30, 14. Brunauer S., Hemmett P., Teller E., "Adsorption of Gases in Multimolecular Layers", J. Am. Chem. Soc. 1938, 60, 309. López D. E., Suwannakarn K., Bruce D. A., Goodwin JG. "Esterification and transesterification on tungstated zirconia: Effect of calcination temperature", J Catal 2007, 247, 43. Mason T.J., Lorimer J.P., "Sonochemistry, Theory, Applications and Uses of Ultrasound in Chemistry", Efford, J. Wiley, New York, 1988. Mingos D.M.P.,Baghurst D.R., "Applications of Microwave Dielectric Heating Effects to Synthetic Problems in Chemistry", Microwave-Enhanced Chemistry, American Chemical Society,Washington, DC, USA, 1997. Perego C., Ricci, M., "Diesel fuel from biomass", Catal. Sci. Technol., 2012, 1, 1776. Pirola C., Boffito D.C., Carvoli G., Di Fronzo A., Ragaini V., Bianchi C.L., "Soybean oil deacidification as a first step towards biodiesel production", in D. Krezhova (Ed.): Recent Trends for Enhancing the Diversity and Quality of Soybean Products, Intech, 2011, pp. 321-44. Pirola C., Bianchi C.L., Boffito D.C., Carvoli G., Ragaini V., "Vegetable oil deacidification by Amberlyst : study of catalyst lifetime and a suitable reactor configuration", Ind. Eng. Chem. Res., 2010, 49, 4601. Ragaini V., Pirola C., Borrelli S., Ferrari C., Longo I., "Simultaneous ultrasound and microwave new reactor: Detailed description and energetic considerations", Ultrasonics Sonochemistry 2012, 19, 872 Sehgal C., Steer R.P., Sutherland R.G., Verrall R.E., "Sonoluminescence of argon saturated alkali metal salt solutions as a probe of acoustic cavitation", J. Chem. Phys., 1979, 70, 2242. Suslick K. S., Doktycz, S. J., "The Effects of Ultrasound on Solids" in Mason, T.J.: Advances in Sonochemistry, JAI Press: New York, 1990, vol.1, pp. 197-230. Toukoniitty B., Mikkola J.P., Murzin D.Yu., Salmi T., "Utilization of electromagnetic and acoustic irradiation in enhancing heterogeneous catalytic reactions", Appl. Catal. A 2005, 279, 1 Winayanuwattikun P., Kaewpiboon C., Piriyakananon K., Tantong S., Thakernkarnkit W., Chulalaksananukul W. et al. "Potential plant oil feedstock for lipase-catalyzed biodiesel production in Thailand", Biomass. and Bioen. 2008, 32, 1279.
With this Cameroon economic update, the World Bank is pursuing a program of short, crisp and frequent country economic reports. These economic updates provide an analysis of the trends and constraints in Cameroon's economic development. Each issue, produced bi-annually, provides an update of recent economic developments, as well as a special focus on a topical issue. The economic updates aim to share knowledge and stimulate debate among those interested in improving the economic management of Cameroon and unleashing its enormous potential. This fourth issue of the Cameroon economic update is entitled 'stepping out into the world a special focus on trade facilitation'. It reviews the challenges and opportunities related to trade facilitation in Cameroon. The coverage is not meant to be exhaustive, but puts an emphasis on particular areas that would require the country's sustained attention: a transformative trade facilitation agenda around which all stakeholders could be mobilized.
This Cameroon economic update, the World Bank is launching a program of short, crisp and more frequent country economic reports. These economic updates will analyze the trends and constraints in Cameroon's economic development. Each issue, produced bi-annually, will provide an update of recent economic developments as well as a special focus on a selected topical issue. The economic updates aim to share knowledge and stimulate debate among those interested in improving the economic management of Cameroon and unleashing its enormous potential. The notes thereby offer another voice on economic issues in Cameroon, and an additional platform for engagement, learning and change. The report's special focus on the telecommunication sector. Cameroon has been hit by the global economic and financial crisis over the past two years, as reflected in steep declines in the price and demand for its export commodities including oil, timber, rubber, cotton and aluminum. However, the upturn in the global economy and measures taken by the authorities to stimulate domestic production, preliminary indications suggest that economic activity is recovering. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2010 is estimated to have reached 3 percent on the back of stronger non-oil activities, which expanded by about 4 percent (particularly food crops, forestry, construction, transport, and telecoms). Data on private credit growth corroborate this assessment. Cameroon is a relatively small and mature oil producer, where oil production is declining. Depleting reserves, aging equipment, and more recently postponements of some development projects and investments because of the financial crisis explain this profile. The contribution of this sector to GDP growth has been mostly negative in recent years: oil production is estimated to have contracted by a further 16 percent in 2010 (to 23.2 million barrels).
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For the first time in twelve years, Venezuela sees real prospects for political change with the upcoming presidential election, scheduled for 28 July. Although the electoral process has been plagued by numerous and serious irregularities, the political opposition led by María Corina Machado and the candidate Edmundo González Urrutia, a former diplomat who has been allowed by the government to participate, has a clear chance of winning. In fact, more than 80 per cent of the Venezuelan population expects a change of government, according to the latest polls.[1]The background: Economic collapse and human rights violations In its eleven years of government, Nicolás Maduro has led Venezuela to the worst crisis in its history, which is why popular discontent is so widespread. The economy has suffered a 74 per cent contraction between 2013-2023[2] and a protracted hyperinflationary process, exceeding 500 per cent annually between 2016-2021.[3] The country's minimum wage fell to 3.5 US dollars a month in 2024,[4] causing poverty levels to reach 80 per cent in 2023,[5] and 7.7 million Venezuelans left the country between 2016-2024.[6] Meanwhile oil production – the country's main source of income – has fallen from 3 million barrels a day in 2013[7] to 800,000 barrels in 2024,[8] signalling a collapse of the country's production capacities.[9] In parallel, under the "Anti-Blockade Law" of 2020,[10] the government enshrined secrecy as a rule for the public administration, transferring countless state businesses and companies to businessmen and operators among its political allies,[11] to the detriment of the national economy.[12] Maduro has arguably acted as Boris Yeltsin's government did in Russia between 1991-1999, creating a class of 'oligarchs' who support him in power. Therefore, the US sanctions imposed on the country in 2019[13] have only further aggravated Venezuela's economic predicament; but they are not the origin of the country's crisis. In parallel, the violation of human rights has further complicated the political situation in the country. Both the Office of the UN High Commissioner[14] and the UN Human Rights Council[15] have denounced the perpetration of serious human rights violations in Venezuela as a state policy,[16] with the justice system – the Attorney General's Office and the judicial power – acting as an instrument of political persecution.[17] Against this backdrop, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has initiated an investigation for crimes against humanity that directly involve President Maduro and senior government officials.[18]The government's manipulation of the electoral process Amidst this profound political and economic crisis, the government is obliged by the Constitution to hold a presidential election, in which the oppositions have decided to participate united.[19] Since this scenario is politically risky for the government, measures to control the electoral process and outcome have been introduced. In August 2017, after the election of the Constituent Assembly, Smartmatic, the company in charge of Venezuela's automated electoral system, denounced that the National Electoral Council (CNE) issued different results from those in the company's system;[20] subsequently, the government cancelled Smartmatic's contract and awarded responsibility for the system to an unknown company without experience. Furthermore, between 2015-2023, through the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ), the government judicially intervened against the different opposition parties, including left-wing parties.[21] In 2023, the government forced the resignation of the Directors of the CNE[22] to nominate a well-known political ally at its head – the same individual who, acting as a Comptroller General, had issued more than 150 political disqualifications between 2019 and August 2023.[23] Finally, in January 2024, the Maduro administration dismissed the President of the TSJ and appointed another ally to head it.[24] These new officers, both in the TSJ and the CNE, ratified the political disqualifications issued since 2019 against political leaders who aspired to compete in the 2024 election, whether they were Chavistas, such as myself,[25] or members of the traditional opposition.[26] To further manipulate the process, the government moved forward the date of the election, which was originally supposed to be held in December (to fulfil the constitutional period of six years), and scheduled it for 28 July (the birthday of the late President Chávez), thereby seeking to gain the support of pro-Chávez voters. More importantly, this change in dates has prevented the different opposition forces from preparing properly for the electoral campaign. Finally, the Permanent Electoral Registry (REP) was allowed to register new voters only for a few days,[27] also obstructing the registration and change of address of those who live abroad. The latter is a fundamental aspect, since, due to the mass migration outside the country in recent years, it is estimated that there are at least 3 million expatriate voters – for which only 508 new voters and 6,000 address changes were registered, using all kinds of absurd obstacles and requirements.[28]The violation of the Barbados Agreement and its consequences Through the most recent manipulation measures, the government of Nicolás Maduro violated the terms of the negotiations and agreements undertaken with the US Administration, which had also been endorsed by the Venezuelan opposition (PUD), known as the "Barbados Agreement".[29] The Agreement, signed on 17 October 2023, entailed a commitment by the government to allow free and fair elections and not to disqualify opposition candidates. As part of the Agreement, prisoners were exchanged and the sanctions against Venezuela were lifted. The US released Colombian businessman Álex Saab,[30] closely linked to Nicolás Maduro, while the government of Venezuela freed twelve US prisoners.[31] On 18 October, the Office for Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) lifted the US sanctions[32] imposed on the oil and financial sector of Venezuela in 2019.[33] However, following the subsequent ratification of political disqualifications and the new wave of repression and political arrests by the Maduro government,[34] the US government warned that, if previous agreements were not fulfilled, it would restore sanctions on Venezuela.[35] The Maduro government responded defiantly. Finally, on 13 February, Juan González, special assistant to the White House responsible for negotiations with the Venezuelan government, announced his "resignation", because of the failure of the Biden Administration's strategy towards the Maduro government.[36] Finally, two months later, on 17 April, the White House re-imposed sanctions on the Venezuelan oil sector[37] that became effective as of 31 May, issuing OFAC License 44A.[38] The decision dealt a severe blow to Maduro's aspirations to "normalize" relations with the United States, internationally legitimize his government and attempt to relaunch the country's derelict oil industry. The immediate effect of the re-imposition of sanctions will translate into the inability to increase Venezuela's oil production and exports. This will deprive the government of resources from oil revenues, which are essential to stabilise, at least temporarily, the economy and show some comfort to the population in the run-up to the election. But the greatest impact will be on the international players in the oil market, discouraging their participation or investments in the sector. Notably, this is due not only to the risk of being subject to sanctions, but also to the lack of transparency in the legal framework: after the approval of the "Anti-Blockade Law" and the disapplication of the Organic Law of Hydrocarbons, international companies, such as French Total, Norwegian Equinor, Japanese INPEX and even Russian Rosneft, stopped oil operations in Venezuela between 2020 and 2021.[39]A campaign of its own kind Even though strong doubts remain that the government will really hand over power as a result of an unfavourable outcome in the election, the voting intention is quite high among Venezuelan citizens, currently at over 70 per cent, and popular participation in the electoral mobilizations organized by the oppositions have exceeded all expectations. Nicolás Maduro, at a political event on 4 February, after having denounced another alleged conspiracy against him – which caused a new wave of political arrests[40] – declared that he "will win by hook or by crook" the upcoming election.[41] In a similar vein, other officials of the Venezuelan government, such as the Minister of Defence Vladimir Padrino López[42] and Diosdado Cabello,[43] Deputy Head of the ruling PSUV party, hinted at the fact that they will not accept an election victory by the opposition. These very serious statements, which add up to the aforementioned irregularities and the lack of impartiality of TSJ and CNE, cast disturbing doubts on the possibility of free and transparent elections being really held; and, even worse, on whether the government is truly willing to hand over power in case of an electoral defeat, as all polls suggest. Meanwhile, the leadership of María Corina Machado, a radical exponent of the right-wing opposition, has been greatly strengthened in the country. Although she was not authorised to enter the election, she is organizing rallies all over the country, gathering thousands of people, campaigning for the unitary opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez. For his part, Maduro does not expose himself to being in open spaces, due to the widespread rejection and low support he generates among the population. Indeed, he always appears in controlled spaces surrounded by security and is depicted in close shots and images. The campaign and the mobilisation of the electoral apparatus supporting the government are primarily led by other political actors of Madurismo, and are able to gather only limited crowds compared with those of Maria Corina Machado's rallies. Overall, it is a strange campaign, in which the presidential candidates do not participate directly. Through the campaign, what prevails among the population is boredom, fatigue and rejection of the incumbent government. Overall Venezuelan people seem to be willing to vote for whomever is able to remove Maduro from power.Looking beyond 28 July The short-term scenarios are far from clear. The polls and mass opposition mobilisations suggest that Maduro will be defeated electorally. The government, if it feels cornered, may still try to prevent Edmundo González's candidacy from materialising by means of political disqualification, using the CNE or the TSJ; it may also try to suspend the electoral process using a military provocation with Guyana as an excuse, over which it has hardened its rhetoric in recent months.[44] In the event that the election is really held and there is majority support for the opposition, the government can still resort to electoral fraud, as it controls the entire process, and Maduro can proclaim himself the winner. This is especially important because the electoral process is not under international electoral monitoring: the CNE rejected the observation mission of the European Union, and other countries such as Brazil and Colombia stated that, due to lack of time, they will not be able organise their own missions, while the UN is still evaluating whether to send an electoral mission to Venezuela. Today more than ever, international support is essential to accompany the upcoming election and the country's political process. Should vote rigging occur, there could be a massive popular mobilisation against it, as María Corina Machado has called to go "all the way in", suggesting that she is not willing to accept frauds. In this scenario, the role of the armed forces – whether they would support Maduro or not – would be crucial, as well as that of the international community in preventing political turmoil. Should Maduro, and those who have surrounded him in these eleven years of government, accept their defeat and hand over power to the opposition, there are still six months to wait until the new government takes office, as according to the Constitution this must take place in January 2025. In other words, the country will face a period of tremendous uncertainty and likely destabilisation. If a new government is installed, presided over by González Urrutia, but under the strong influence of María Corina Machado, with a right-wing shock programme, it remains to be seen whether the "transition" will be possible and whether such an administration will be able to govern the country, avoiding violence and destabilisation, and perhaps even a coup d'état. In any possible scenario, the big questions will be about the role of the military, which until now has been fundamental in supporting Maduro's government, and the capacity of the different political forces of the opposition to reach an inclusive national agreement with the participation of those broad sectors of real Chavismo that are opposed to Maduro. A political agreement will be essential to return to the true spirit of the Constitution, re-establish the rule of law and address the immense needs of the population.Rafael Ramírez is former Venezuelan Foreign Affairs Minister (2014) and UN Ambassador (2014-2017); Venezuelan Oil Minister and CEO of PDVSA (2002-2014).[1] Meganalisis, Encuesta CATI Meganálisis. Verdad Venezuela abril 2024, May 2024, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tSReQeVZHrfA8aaYCP77026nz2x2WoDi/view?usp=drive_link.[2] Statista, Venezuela: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in Current Prices from 1985 to 2025, April 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/371876.[3] Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), "República Bolivariana de Venezuela", in Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe 2023, November 2023, https://repositorio.cepal.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/18052be0-dcaf-448b-b02e-5244cd422b66/content.[4] AFP, "Maduro Keeps Venezuela Minimum Wage Frozen but Raises Bonuses", in Barron's, 2 May 2024, https://www.barrons.com/news/maduro-keeps-venezuela-minimum-wage-frozen-but-raises-bonuses-97bc6ae3.[5] Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, Encovi 2023 | Encuesta nacional de condiciones de vida 2023, March 2024, https://assets.website-files.com/5d14c6a5c4ad42a4e794d0f7/65f8aa0a4054c8b7a93fe274_Presentacio%CC%81n%20ENCOVI%202023%20integrada%20prensa%20v1303%20(1).pdf.[6] Regional Interagency Coordination Platform for Refugees and Migrants of Venezuela (R4V), Refugees and Migrants in the Region, May 2024, 3 June 2024, https://www.r4v.info/en/node/91585.[7] Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), Estados financieros consolidados, 31 de diciembre de 2013, 2012 y 2011, con el Informe de los contadores públicos independientes, 2013, p. 96, http://www.pdvsa.com/images/pdf/RELACION%20CON%20INVERSIONISTAS/Estados%20Financieros/2013/Estados%20Financieros%20Consolidados%20al%2031%20de%20diciembre%20de%202013%202012%202011.PDF.[8] Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Monthly Oil Market Report, 11 June 2024, https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm.[9] Rafael Ramírez, "El colapso de la industria petrolera", in RafaelRamirez.net, 22 September 2020, https://www.rafaelramirez.net/?p=5602.[10] Venezuela, "Ley constitucional antibloqueo para el desarrollo nacional y la garantía de los derechos humanos", in Gaceta Oficial de la Républica Bolivariana de Venezuela, No. 6,583 (12 October 2020), http://spgoin.imprentanacional.gob.ve/cgi-win/be_alex.cgi?Documento=T028700033940/0&Nombrebd=spgoin&CodAsocDoc=2307&Sesion=2023551607.[11] Regina García Cano and Joshua Goodman, "Shadowy Brokers Walk Off with Billions in Venezuelan Oil", in AP News, 31 March 2023, https://apnews.com/article/e4bb5d055f16eae94c9bcec6c7a6dbf5; "Las empresas de Alex Saab y Álvaro Pulido se habrían quedado con 1.500 millones de dólares de PDVSA", in Semana, 15 April 2023, https://www.semana.com/mundo/articulo/la-huella-de-alex-saab-en-el-millonario-desfalco-a-pdvsa-la-petrolera-estatal-venezolana/202323.[12] Marianna Parraga, "Exclusive: Middlemen Have Left Venezuela's PDVSA with $21.2 Billion in Unpaid Bills", in Reuters, 21 March 2023, http://reut.rs/3yZF03r.[13] White House, Executive Order 13857: Taking Additional Steps to Address the National Emergency with Respect to Venezuela, 25 January 2019, https://www.federalregister.gov/executive-order/13857.[14] UN Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner (OHCHR), Situation of Human Rights in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (A/HRC/50/59), 12 August 2022, https://undocs.org/A/HRC/50/59.[15] UN Human Rights Council, Report of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (A/HRC/54/57), 11 December 2023, https://undocs.org/en/A/HRC/54/57.[16] OHCHR, Human Rights in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (A/HRC/41/18), 9 October 2019, https://undocs.org/A/HRC/41/18.[17] OHCHR, Report of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (A/HRC/48/69), 28 December 2021, https://undocs.org/A/HRC/48/69.[18] Human Rights Watch, Venezuela: ICC Investigation Opens, 3 November 2021, https://www.hrw.org/node/378814.[19] On 3 May 2018, the alliance of traditional opposition parties (Mesa de la Unidad Democrática, MUD) called to abstain in the presidential election of 20 May; "Alianza opositora llama a la abstención en presidenciales venezolanas", in France 24, 3 May 2018, https://www.france24.com/es/20180503-alianza-opositora-llama-la-abstencion-en-presidenciales-venezolanas.[20] Smartmatic, Smartmatic Announces Cease of Operations in Venezuela, 6 March 2018, https://www.smartmatic.com/us/media/smartmatic-announces-cease-of-operations-in-venezuela.[21] People's Electoral Movement, 15 May 2014; Min-Unit, 6 August 2015; COPEI, 30 June 2016; Venezuelan Ecological Movement, 4 July 2018; Democratic Action, 15 June 2020; First Justice, 17 June 2020; Popular Will, 7 July 2020; Motion Republican, 23 July 2020; Tupamaro, 19 August 2020; Homeland for All, 21 August 2020; New Vision of my Country, 22 August 2020; Country Commitment, 25 August 2020; Communist Party of Venezuela, 11 August 2023.[22] "Renuncia el último rector principal de ente electoral de Venezuela cercano a la oposición", in Deutsche Welle, 20 June 2023, https://www.dw.com/es/a-65982882.[23] Elvis Amoroso was a deputy to the National Assembly for the ruling party in 2006. In October 2018, he was appointed Comptroller of the Republic.[24] On 26 April 2022, Caryslia Rodríguez was appointed magistrate of TSJ and president of the Electoral Chamber. On 17 January 2024, as the new president of the TSJ, she ratified the disqualification of Machado.[25] Venezuela National Assembly, AN recibe al Contralor General de la República, 4 March 2021, https://www.asambleanacional.gob.ve/noticias/an-recibe-al-contralor-general-de-la-republica; EFE, "La Contraloría venezolana inhabilitó a 150 funcionarios entre 2019 y 2020", in Swissinfo, 4 March 2021, https://www.swissinfo.ch/spa/la-contraloría-venezolana-inhabilitó-a-150-funcionarios-entre-2019-y-2020.[26] In October 2023, the Supreme Court of Justice disqualified opponents Henrique Capriles and María Corina Machado.[27] "Cierra el plazo para la inscripción de votantes en Venezuela", in EFE, 17 April 2024, https://wp.me/pdaKzp-4lXw.[28] Transparencia Electoral, Rumbo a las elecciones presidenciales de Venezuela: ¿Qué pasó esta semana? (29 de abril al 03 de mayo 2024), 3 May 2024, https://transparenciaelectoral.org/?p=10427.[29] "El Gobierno de Venezuela y la oposición firman un acuerdo de garantías para las presidenciales de 2024", in EFE, 17 October 2023, https://wp.me/pdaKzp-2XMb.[30] "Alex Saab: Cabo Verde entrega a Estados Unidos al empresario vinculado al gobierno de Nicolás Maduro y acusado de corrupción", in BBC News, 16 October 2021, https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-58942596.[31] "Estados Unidos acuerda liberar a Álex Saab a cambio de 36 presos en Venezuela", in France 24, 20 December 2023, https://www.france24.com/es/américa-latina/20231220-estados-unidos-acuerda-liberar-a-Álex-saab-a-cambio-de-36-presos-en-venezuela.[32] "EE.UU. levanta sanciones sobre petróleo y gas a Venezuela", in Deutsche Welle, 19 October 2023, https://www.dw.com/es/a-67144136.[33] US Department of the Treasury, Issuance of Venezuela-related General Licenses and Associated Frequently Asked Questions, 18 October 2023, https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20231018_44.[34] Ibis León, "Detenciones a dirigentes políticos en Venezuela: así es el patrón represivo", in Efecto Cocuyo, 17 December 2023, https://wp.me/p6JdTn-2olw.[35] US Department of State, Venezuelan Supreme Court Rulings and the Barbados Agreement, 27 January 2024, https://www.state.gov/venezuelan-supreme-court-rulings-and-the-barbados-agreement.[36] Eric Martin and Patricia Laya, "Biden's Top Latin America Adviser Juan Gonzalez to Step Down", in Bloomberg, 13 February 2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-13/biden-top-latin-america-adviser-juan-gonzalez-planning-to-depart.[37] Jennifer Hansler and Osmary Hernandez, "US to Reimpose Sanctions on Venezuela's Oil and Gas Sector", in CNN, 17 April 2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/17/politics/us-reimpose-oil-sanctions-venezuela/index.html.[38] US Department of the Treasury, Issuance of Venezuela-related General License and Associated Frequently Asked Questions, 17 April 2024, https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20240417.[39] Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber and Olesya Astakhova, "Rosneft Sells Venezuelan Assets to Russia after U.S. Sanctions Ramp Up", in Reuters, 29 March 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN21G02O; Mariela Nava, Marianna Parraga and Deisy Buitrago, "Focus: Venezuela's Oil Partners Head for the Exit, Forgoing Unpaid Debt", in Reuters, 27 October 2022, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/venezuelas-oil-partners-head-exit-forgoing-unpaid-debt-2022-10-27.[40] Between January and April 2024, arrest warrants were issued against civilians and members of the military accused of "conspiring" against Nicolás Maduro. Alicia Hernández, "La ola de detenciones a activistas y a críticos del gobierno de Venezuela que recrudece el conflicto político", in BBC News, 13 February 2024, https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/cy6ey29200no; "Venezuela Arrests Activist for Alleged Links to Maduro Assassination Attempt", in Reuters, 16 April 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-arrests-activist-alleged-links-maduro-assassination-attempt-2024-04-16.[41] "'Vamos a ganar por las buenas o por las malas', dice Maduro", in Deutsche Welle, 4 February 2024, https://www.dw.com/es/a-68170506.[42] Vladimir Padrino (@vladimirpadrino), "La Ley Orgánica para la Defensa de la Guayana Esequiba establece en su artículo 25 que quienes hayan tenido conductas que de manera 'directa o indirecta' apoyaran la posición de Guyana en la controversia territorial, no podrán optar a cargos de elección popular", X post, 26 April 2024, https://x.com/vladimirpadrino/status/1783867416205795330.[43] "'Si quieren calle, vamos a la calle': Diosdado Cabello insiste en que el chavismo no saldrá del poder", in El Nacional, 14 June 2023, https://www.elnacional.com/venezuela/ni-por-las-buenas-ni-por-las-malas-diosdado-cabello-reitera-que-la-oposicion-no-gobernara-el-pais.[44] Rafael Ramírez, "Venezuela-Guyana Dispute over Essequibo", in IAI Commentaries, No. 24|07 (February 2024), https://www.iai.it/en/node/18122.
In: Decision analysis: a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, INFORMS, Band 9, Heft 2, S. 204-210
ISSN: 1545-8504
Debarun Bhattacharjya (" Formulating Asymmetric Decision Problems as Decision Circuits " and " From Reliability Block Diagrams to Fault Tree Circuits ") is a research staff member in the Risk Analytics team within the broader Business Analytics and Math Sciences division at IBM T.J. Watson Research Center. He received his Ph.D. in management science and engineering at Stanford University. His primary research interests lie in decision and risk analysis, and probabilistic models and decision theory in artificial intelligence. Specifically, he has pursued research in probabilistic graphical models (influence diagrams and Bayesian networks), value of information, sensitivity analysis, and utility theory. His applied work has been in domains such as sales, energy, business services, and public policy. He has coauthored more than 10 publications in highly refereed journals and conference proceedings, as well as two patents. He was nominated by IBM management for the Young Researcher Connection at the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) Practice Conference in 2010. Email: debarunb@us.ibm.com . May Cheung (" Regulation Games Between Government and Competing Companies: Oil Spills and Other Disasters ") is an undergraduate senior in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the University at Buffalo. Her research interests are in decision analysis, optimization, and simulation with respect to complex, high-impact decisions. Email: mgcheung@buffalo.edu . Léa A. Deleris (" From Reliability Block Diagrams to Fault Tree Circuits ") is a research staff member and manager at IBM Dublin Research Laboratory, where she oversees the Risk Collaboratory, a three-year research project funded in part by the Irish Industrial Development Agency around risk management, from stochastic optimization to the communication of risk information to decision makers. Prior to joining the Dublin lab, she was a research staff member with the Risk Analytics Group, Business Application and Mathematical Science Department, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York. Her primary interests have been in the fields of decision theory and risk analysis. Her work is currently focused on leveraging natural language processing techniques to facilitate the construction of risk models, distributed elicitation of expert opinions, and value of information problems. She holds a Ph.D. in management science and engineering from Stanford University. Email: lea.deleris@ie.ibm.com . Philippe Delquié (" Risk Measures from Risk-Reducing Experiments ") is an associate professor of decision sciences at the George Washington University, and holds a Ph.D. from Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Professor Delquié's teaching and research are in decision, risk, and multicriteria analysis. His research is at the nexus of behavioral and normative theories of decision, addressing issues in preference elicitation, value of information, nonexpected utility models of choice, and risk measures. Prior to joining the George Washington University, he held academic appointments at INSEAD, the University of Texas at Austin, and École Normale Supérieure, France, and visiting appointments at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business. He is on the editorial board of Decision Analysis and has completed a term as an associate editor. Email: delquie@gwu.edu . Lorraine Dodd (" Regulating Autonomous Agents Facing Conflicting Objectives: A Command and Control Example ") is a highly respected international contributor to command and leadership studies within military and UK governmental command, control, intelligence and information analysis, and research. She has an honours degree in pure mathematics and an M.Sc. in operational research and management science from the University of Warwick majoring in catastrophe theory and nonlinearity. Her main interest is in sense-making, decision making, and risk taking under conditions of uncertainty, confusion, volatility, ambiguity, and contention, as applied to the study of institutions, organizations, society, people, and governance. She uses analogy with brain functions and coherent cellular functions to develop mathematical models of complex decision behavior. Her most recent studies include an application of a multiagency, multiperspective approaches to collaborative decision making and planning, and development of an "open-eyes/open-mind" framework to provide support to leaders when dealing with complex crises and "black swans." She has developed an understanding of the nonlinear, slow and fast dynamics of behavior, in particular, of means of organizing for agility in complex and uncertain environments. Email: l.dodd@cranfield.ac.uk . Rachele Foschi (" Interactions Between Ageing and Risk Properties in the Analysis of Burn-in Problems ") has an M.Sc. and a Ph.D. in mathematics from the University of Rome La Sapienza, where she also worked as a tutor for the courses of calculus and probability. Currently, she is an assistant professor in the Economics and Institutional Change Research Area at IMT (Institutions, Markets, Technologies) Advanced Studies, in Lucca, Italy. Her research interests include stochastic dependence, reliability, stochastic orders, point processes, and mathematical models in economics. Random sets and graphs, linguistics, and behavioral models are of broader interest to her. Email: rachele.foschi@imtlucca.it . Simon French (" Expert Judgment, Meta-analysis, and Participatory Risk Analysis ") recently joined the Department of Statistics at the University of Warwick to become the director of the Risk Initiative and Statistical Consultancy Unit. Prior to joining the University of Warwick, he was a professor of information and decision sciences at Manchester Business School. Simon's research career began in Bayesian statistics, and he was one of the first to apply hierarchical modeling, particularly in the domain of protein crystallography. Nowadays he is better known for his work on decision making, which began with his early work on decision theory. Over the years, his work has generally become more applied: looking at ways of supporting real decision makers facing major strategic and risk issues. In collaboration with psychologists, he has sought to support real decision makers and stakeholders in complex decisions in ways that are mindful of their human characteristics. He has a particular interest in societal decision making, particularly with respect to major risks. He has worked on public risk communication and engagement and the wider areas of stakeholder involvement and deliberative democracy. Simon has worked across the public and private sectors, often in contexts that relate to the environment, energy, food safety, and the nuclear industry. In all of his work, the emphasis is on multidisciplinary and participatory approaches to solving real problems. Email: simon.french@warwick.ac.uk . L. Robin Keller (" From the Editors: Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk ") is a professor of operations and decision technologies in the Merage School of Business at the University of California, Irvine. She received her Ph.D. and M.B.A. in management science and her B.A. in mathematics from the University of California, Los Angeles. She has served as a program director for the Decision, Risk, and Management Science Program of the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). Her research is on decision analysis and risk analysis for business and policy decisions and has been funded by NSF and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Her research interests cover multiple attribute decision making, riskiness, fairness, probability judgments, ambiguity of probabilities or outcomes, risk analysis (for terrorism, environmental, health, and safety risks), time preferences, problem structuring, cross-cultural decisions, and medical decision making. She is currently the editor-in-chief of Decision Analysis, published by the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). She is a fellow of INFORMS and has held numerous roles in INFORMS, including board member and chair of the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society. She is a recipient of the George F. Kimball Medal from INFORMS. She has served as the decision analyst on three National Academy of Sciences committees. Email: lrkeller@uci.edu . Miguel A. Lejeune (" Game Theoretical Approach for Reliable Enhanced Indexation ") is an assistant professor of decision sciences at the George Washington University (GWU) and holds a Ph.D. degree from Rutgers University. Prior to joining GWU, he was a visiting assistant professor in operations research at Carnegie Mellon University. His areas of expertise/research interests include stochastic programming, financial risk, and large-scale optimization. He is the recipient of a Young Investigator/CAREER Research Grant (2009) from the Army Research Office. He also received the IBM Smarter Planet Faculty Innovation Award (December 2011) and the Royal Belgian Sciences Academy Award for his master's thesis. Email: mlejeune@gwu.edu . Jason R. W. Merrick (" From the Editors: Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk ") is a professor in the Department of Statistical Sciences and Operations Research at Virginia Commonwealth University. He has a D.Sc. in operations research from the George Washington University. He teaches courses in decision analysis, risk analysis, and simulation. His research is primarily in the area of decision analysis and Bayesian statistics. He has worked on projects ranging from assessing maritime oil transportation and ferry system safety, the environmental health of watersheds, and optimal replacement policies for rail tracks and machine tools, and he has received grants from the National Science Foundation, the Federal Aviation Administration, the United States Coast Guard, the American Bureau of Shipping, British Petroleum, and Booz Allen Hamilton, among others. He has also performed training for Infineon Technologies, Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, and Capital One Services. He is an associate editor for Decision Analysis and Operations Research. He is the information officer for the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS. Email: jrmerric@vcu.edu . Gilberto Montibeller (" Modeling State-Dependent Priorities of Malicious Agents ") is a tenured lecturer in decision sciences in the Department of Management at the London School of Economics (LSE). With a first degree in electrical engineering (Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), Brazil, 1993), he started his career as an executive at British and American Tobacco. Moving back to academia, he was awarded a master's degree (UFSC, 1996) and a Ph.D. in production engineering (UFSC/University of Strathclyde, United Kingdom, 2000). He then continued his studies as a postdoctoral research fellow in management science at the University of Strathclyde (2002–2003). He is an area editor of the Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, and he is on the editorial board of Decision Analysis and the EURO Journal on Decision Processes. His main research interest is on supporting strategic-level decision making, both in terms of decision analytic methodologies and of decision processes. He has been funded by the AXA Research Fund, United Kingdom's EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council), and Brazil's CAPES (Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior). His research has been published in journals such as the European Journal of Operational Research, Decision Support Systems, and OMEGA—The International Journal of Management Science. One of his papers, on the evaluation of strategic options and scenario planning, was awarded the Wiley Prize in Applied Decision Analysis by the International Society of Multi-Criteria Decision Making. He has had visiting positions at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA, Austria) and the University of Warwick (United Kingdom), and is a visiting associate professor of production engineering at the University of São Paulo (Brazil). He also has extensive experience in applying decision analysis in practice; over the past 17 years he has provided consulting to both private and public organizations in Europe and South America. He is a regular speaker at the LSE Executive Education courses. Email: g.montibeller@lse.ac.uk . M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell (" Games, Risks, and Analytics: Several Illustrative Cases Involving National Security and Management Situations ") specializes in engineering risk analysis with application to complex systems (space, medical, etc.). Her research has focused on explicit inclusion of human and organizational factors in the analysis of systems' failure risks. Her recent work is on the use of game theory in risk analysis with applications that have included counterterrorism and nuclear counterproliferation problems. She is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, the French Académie des Technologies, and of several boards, including Aerospace, Draper Laboratory, and In-Q-Tel. Dr. Paté-Cornell was a member of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board from December 2001 to 2008. She holds an engineering degree (applied mathematics and computer science) from the Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble (France), an M.S. in operations research and a Ph.D. in engineering-economic systems, both from Stanford University. Email: mep@stanford.edu . Jesus Rios (" Adversarial Risk Analysis: The Somali Pirates Case ") is a research staff member at the IBM T.J. Watson Research Center. He has a Ph.D. in computer sciences and mathematical modeling from the University Rey Juan Carlos. Before joining IBM, he worked in several universities as a researcher, including the University of Manchester, the University of Luxembourg, Aalborg University, and Concordia University. He participated in the 2007 SAMSI program on Risk Analysis, Extreme Events, and Decision Theory, and led work in the area of adversarial risk analysis. He has also worked as a consultant for clients in the transportation, distribution, energy, defense, and telecommunication sectors. His main research interests are in the areas of risk and decision analysis and its applications. Email: jriosal@us.ibm.com . David Rios Insua (" Adversarial Risk Analysis: The Somali Pirates Case ") is a professor of statistics and operations research at Rey Juan Carlos University and a member of the Spanish Royal Academy of Sciences. He has written 15 monographs and more than 90 refereed papers in his areas of interest, which include decision analysis, negotiation analysis, risk analysis, and Bayesian statistics, and their applications. He is scientific advisor of AISoy Robotics. He is on the editorial board of Decision Analysis. Email: david.rios@urjc.es . Fabrizio Ruggeri (" From the Editors: Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk ") is the director of research at IMATI CNR (Institute of Applied Mathematics and Information Technology at the Italian National Research Council) in Milano, Italy. He received a B.Sc. in mathematics from the University of Milano, an M.Sc. in statistics from Carnegie Mellon University, and a Ph.D. in statistics from Duke University. After a start as a researcher at Alfa Romeo and then a computer consultant, he has been working at CNR since 1987. His interests are mostly in Bayesian and industrial statistics, especially in robustness, decision analysis, reliability, and stochastic processes; recently, he got involved in biostatistics and biology as well. Dr. Ruggeri is an adjunct faculty member at the Polytechnic Institute (New York University), a faculty member in the Ph.D. program in mathematics and statistics at the University of Pavia, a foreign faculty member in the Ph.D. program in statistics at the University of Valparaiso, and a member of the advisory board of the Ph.D. program in mathematical engineering at Polytechnic of Milano. An ASA Fellow and an ISI elected member, Dr. Ruggeri is the current ISBA (International Society for Bayesian Analysis) president and former ENBIS (European Network for Business and Industrial Statistics) president. He is the editor-in-chief of Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry and the Encyclopedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability, and he is also the Chair of the Bayesian Inference in Stochastic Processes workshops and codirector of the Applied Bayesian Statistics summer school. Email: fabrizio@mi.imati.cnr.it . Juan Carlos Sevillano (" Adversarial Risk Analysis: The Somali Pirates Case ") is a part-time lecturer at the Department of Statistics and Operations Research II (Decision Methods) at the School of Economics of Complutense University. He holds a B.Sc. in mathematics from Complutense University and an M.Sc. in decision systems engineering from Rey Juan Carlos University. Email: sevimjc@ccee.ucm.es . Ross D. Shachter (" Formulating Asymmetric Decision Problems as Decision Circuits ") is an associate professor in the Department of Management Science and Engineering at Stanford University, where his teaching includes probability, decision analysis, and influence diagrams. He has been at Stanford since earning his Ph.D. in operations research from the University of California, Berkeley in 1982, except for two years visiting the Duke University Center for Health Policy Research and Education. His main research focus has been on the communication and analysis of the relationships among uncertain quantities in the graphical representations called Bayesian belief networks and influence diagrams, and in the 1980s he developed the DAVID influence diagram processing system for the Macintosh. His research in medical decision analysis has included the analysis of vaccination strategies and cancer screening and follow-up. At Duke he helped to develop an influence diagram-based approach for medical technology assessment. He has served on the Decision Analysis Society (DAS) of INFORMS Council, chaired its student paper competition, organized the DAS cluster in Nashville, and was honored with its Best Publication Award. For INFORMS, he organized the 1992 Doctoral Colloquium and has been an associate editor in decision analysis for Management Science and Operations Research. He has also served as Program Chair and General Chair for the Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence Conference. At Stanford he served from 1990 until 2011 as a resident fellow in an undergraduate dormitory, and he was active in planning the university's new student orientation activities and alcohol policy. Email: shachter@stanford.edu . Jim Q. Smith (" Regulating Autonomous Agents Facing Conflicting Objectives: A Command and Control Example ") has been a full professor of statistics at the University of Warwick in the United Kingdom for 18 years, receiving a Ph.D. from Warwick University in 1977, and has more than 100 refereed publications in the area of Bayesian decision theory and related fields. He has particular interests in customizing probabilistic models in dynamic, high-dimensional problems to the practical needs of a decision maker, often using novel graphical approaches. As well as teaching decision analysis to more than 3,000 top math students in the United Kingdom and supervising 23 Ph.D. students in his areas of expertise, he has been chairman of the Risk Initiative and Statistical Consultancy Unit at Warwick for 10 years, engaging vigorously in the university's interaction with industry and commerce. His book Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice was published by Cambridge University Press in 2010. Email: j.q.smith@warwick.ac.uk . Refik Soyer (" From the Editors: Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk ") is a professor of decision sciences and of statistics and the chair of the Department of Decision Sciences at the George Washington University (GWU). He also serves as the director of the Institute for Integrating Statistics in Decision Sciences at GWU. He received his D.Sc. in University of Sussex, England, and B.A. in Economics from Boğaziçi University, Turkey. His areas of interest are Bayesian statistics and decision analysis, stochastic modeling, statistical aspects of reliability analysis, and time-series analysis. He has published more than 90 articles. His work has appeared in journals such as Journal of the American Statistical Association; Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. B.; Technometrics; Biometrics; Journal of Econometrics; Statistical Science; International Statistical Review; and Management Science. He has also coedited a volume titled Mathematical Reliability: An Expository Perspective. Soyer is an elected member of the International Statistical Institute, a fellow of the Turkish Statistical Association, and a fellow of the American Statistical Association. He was vice president of the International Association for Statistical Computing. He served on the editorial board of the Journal of the American Statistical Association and is currently an associate editor of the Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry. Email: soyer@gwu.edu . Fabio Spizzichino (" Interactions Between Ageing and Risk Properties in the Analysis of Burn-in Problems ") is a full professor of probability theory at the Department of Mathematics, the Sapienza University of Rome. He teaches courses on introductory probability, advanced probability, and stochastic processes. In the past, he has also taught courses on basic mathematical statistics, Bayesian statistics, decision theory, and reliability theory. His primary research interests are related to probability theory and its applications. A partial list of scientific activities includes dependence models, stochastic ageing for lifetimes, and (semi-)copulas; first-passage times and optimal stopping times for Markov chains and discrete state-space processes; order statistics property for counting processes in continuous or discrete time, in one or more dimensions; sufficiency concepts in Bayesian statistics and stochastic filtering; and reliability of coherent systems and networks. He also has a strong interest in the connections among the above-mentioned topics and in their applications in different fields. At the present time, he is particularly interested in the relations among dependence, ageing, and utility functions. Email: fabio.spizzichino@uniroma1.it . Sumitra Sri Bhashyam (" Modeling State-Dependent Priorities of Malicious Agents ") is a Ph.D. candidate in the Management Science Group at the London School of Economics (LSE). Her Ph.D. thesis is supervised by Dr. Gilberto Montibeller and cosupervised by Dr. David Lane. Her research interests include decision analysis, multicriteria decision analysis, preference modeling, and preference change. Before coming to study in the United Kingdom, Sri Bhashyam studied mathematics, physics, and computer sciences in France for two years, after which she moved to the United Kingdom to complete a B.A.Hons in marketing communications and then an M.Sc. in operational research from the LSE. She worked as a project manager at Xerox and, subsequently, as a consultant for an SME (small and medium enterprise) to help them set up their quality management system. Alongside the Ph.D., and participating in other research and consultancy projects, she has been a graduate teaching assistant for undergraduate, master, and executive students at the LSE. The courses she teaches include topics such as normative and descriptive decision theory, prescriptive decision analysis, simulation modeling and analysis. Email: s.sribhashyam@lse.ac.uk . Jun Zhuang (" Regulation Games Between Government and Competing Companies: Oil Spills and Other Disasters ") has been an assistant professor of industrial and systems engineering at the University at Buffalo, the State University of New York (SUNY-Buffalo), since he obtained his Ph.D. in industrial engineering in 2008 from the University of Wisconsin–Madison. Dr. Zhuang's long-term research goal is to integrate operations research and game theory to better mitigate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from both natural and man-made hazards. Other areas of interest include healthcare, sports, transportation, supply chain management, and sustainability. Dr. Zhuang's research has been supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) through the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) and National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) through the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and by the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR) through the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). Dr. Zhuang is a fellow of the 2011 U.S. Air Force Summer Faculty Fellowship Program (AF SFFP), sponsored by the AFOSR. Dr. Zhuang is also a fellow of the 2009–2010 Next Generation of Hazards and Disasters Researchers Program, sponsored by the NSF. Dr. Zhuang is on the editorial board of Decision Analysis and is the coeditor of Decision Analysis Today. Email: jzhuang@buffalo.edu .
Las crisis financieras recientes han incrementado de manera significativa la complejidad de la política económica. Hoy día es necesario estar preparado para enfrentar huracanes financieros que surgen de lugares inesperados y que se expanden alrededor del mundo como reguero de pólvora. Para peor, estas crisis producen un profundo desconcierto entre inversores y analistas —incluyendo al propio Fondo Monetario Internacional—. La presente obra contiene un conjunto importante de artículos de alto calibre profesional que se enfocan sobre los nuevos desafíos que enfrenta la política económica en estas circunstancias. Los artículos estudian las características de los flujos de capitales, tanto en su totalidad como en su composición (capital de cartera, inversión directa, etc.) y su interrelación con el mercado de commodities (café y petróleo, en particular). Esto se complementa con un estudio cuidadoso de las vulnerabilidades financieras y un detallado análisis del papel de todos estos factores en la economía colombiana. El libro se convierte en un verdadero pionero en esta literatura y debería transformarse en referencia obligada para todos aquellos que quieran entender los nuevos fenómenos y desarrollar herramientas para prevenir sus peores consecuencias o paliar sus costos en economías emergentes, como la colombiana.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 6.7 percent in FY11, continuing the upward trend in growth after declining during FY06-09. This strong performance can be repeated in FY12 if exports continue to grow and if garment exports benefit from the agreement reached during the recent India-Bangladesh Summit, remittances continue to recover, and if investment is boosted by improved infrastructure services particularly power. Risks in the global economy can affect Bangladesh in several ways. The standard and poor (S&P) downgrade of US debt as well as the debt problems in the Euro Zone are affecting the international markets and renewing fears of another global slowdown. This time around, limited fiscal and monetary space in developed countries increases the chances of a protracted slowdown. If this slowdown occurs, it can affect Bangladesh's balance of payments through its impact on exports and remittances, put pressure on the exchange rate, increase economic uncertainty, and, in turn, weaken investment and growth. Domestic policies will also affect Bangladesh's economic prospects. A slow pace of reforms in the investment climate can affect domestic and foreign investment, as can inadequacies in energy supply and the poor quality of roads. The reversal of trade reforms as well as weakening of the financial sector can also affect export growth and investment. Expansionary macroeconomic policies could increase risks on the current account and make inflation management more difficult. Unlike in 2008, Bangladesh has insufficient policy space to cushion the impact of a second global slowdown through fiscal stimulus. packages and monetary easing. Rapid growth in subsidies, sustained high rate of growth of credit to the private sector as well as recourse to monetary financing of the fiscal deficit have led to the erosion of the fiscal and monetary policy space. Much improved fiscal and monetary discipline combined with stronger efforts to address the energy and infrastructure deficits will be critical for sustaining growth performance. Maintaining the long-established tradition of sound macroeconomic management will also be important.
