The influence of atmospheric circulation at different spatial scales on winter drought variability through a semi-arid climatic gradient in Northeast Spain
27 páginas, 15 figuras, 6 tablas.-- El documento se encuentra en su versión post-print. ; This paper analyses the spatial and temporal variability of winter droughts in a semi-arid geographic gradient in Northeast Spain, from the Pyrenees in the north to the Mediterranean coastland in the south. Droughts that occurred between 1952 and 1999 were analysed by means of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). The influence of the weather-type frequency and of the general North Atlantic atmospheric circulation patterns was analysed. The results indicate that winter droughts show an important spatial variability in the study area, differentiating three well-defined patterns. These correspond to the Pyrenees, the centre of the Ebro Valley, and the Mediterranean coastland. General negative trends in winter SPI have been found, which are indicative of the increase in winter drought conditions in the study area. Nevertheless, important spatial differences have also been recorded. Dominant north–south gradients in the influence of weather types are shown. Moreover, the negative trends in winter-SPI values agree with the negative trend in the frequency of the weather types prone to cause precipitation, such as the C, SW and W weather types and the increase in the frequency of A weather types. Nevertheless, in the Mediterranean coastland, the positive trend in SPI values agrees with the increase in the frequency of weather types of the east (E, SE), which are prone to cause precipitation in this area. Interannual variations in the frequency of the different weather types have been highly determined by different general atmospheric circulation patterns, mainly the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Nevertheless, the correlation between the time series of weather-type frequency and the winter SPI is higher than that found between the SPI and the NAO. Thus, although the interannual NAO variability explains a high percentage of the interannual differences in the frequency of different weather types, it is not sufficient to explain the spatial and temporal variability of droughts, which respond better to atmospheric variability at more detailed (synoptic) spatial scales. ; This work has been supported by the projects: 'Caracterización espacio-temporal de las sequías en el valle medio del Ebro e identificación de sus impactos' (BSO2002-02743), 'Variabilidad climática y dinámica forestal en ecosistemas de ecotono' (REN2003-07453), Procesos hidrológicos y erosivos en cuencas pirenaicas en relación a cambios de usos de suelo y variabilidad climática (PIRIHEROS, REN2003-08678/HID) 'Caracterización y modelización de procesos hidrológicos en cuencas aforadas para predicción en cuencas no aforadas' (CANOA, CGL 2004-04919-c02-01), all funded by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology (CICYT) and FEDER, and 'Programa de grupos de investigación consolidados' (grupo Clima, Cambio Global y Sistemas Naturales, BOA 48 of 20-04-2005), financed by the Aragón Government. We want to thank to the National Institute of Meteorology (INM) for providing the data used in this work. Research of the second author was supported by postdoctoral fellowships by the Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte (Spain). ; Peer reviewed