The African agricultural sector has been neglected by development aid during the last fifty years. It has not undertaken a green revolution, as it happened in Asia. The continent has a great potential for agricultural production but yields and technology adoption are still very low. Moreover many recent threats to food security represent a challenge for future development in Africa. Demographic growth, increase in commodity prices and price volatility, land use pressure and climate change are probably the most latent threats. In such context, it is necessary to develop new patterns of development for African agriculture. Those patterns should draw the consequences from past policies, which either relied on large investments and in favouring a development of the same nature that the one observed in rich or emerging economies. It seems that improving institutions and the environment to foster the evolution of African agriculture would be more adapted than previous strategies that consist in applying the same methods employed in the past. Food security can be achieved by improving rural households' income. Those households is composed by a vast majority of smallholders, for which agricultural production is a major resource for living. The necessary transition for stimulating production in remote areas seem to rely on fostering technology adoption and improve incentives for investments that would increase the productivity or the value added to smallholder production. We study two major organisational changes that are the reforms of cotton sector market structure in sub-Saharan Africa and index-based insurances. In both cases the point is to look at the potential of every organisation choice, reduce vulnerability and its effect, in particular the poverty trap phenomenon. The final objective is improve long run yield by foster investments, in spite of the risks borne by farmers and the tied budget constraint, consequence of the absence of financial (especially credit) markets. The cotton sectors inherited from the institutions of the colonial era, characterised by the concentration in cotton purchasing activities, often made by a parastatal at the national level. Those institutions contributed to generalise cotton production and to the diffusion of new technologies and agricultural practices, especially thanks to the distribution of quality inputs on credit, with future cotton production as collateral. Cotton production and technology adoption were also probably driven by the existence of a minimum guaranteed price set at the beginning of the cultivation season, the investments in infrastructures, research and extension services at the same national level. However, the concentration of the purchasing of cotton also poses some problems, reducing the bargaining power of producers and the proximity of the cotton. We look at the productivity response to cotton sector reforms that took place since 1985 in sub-Saharan Africa using the data from 16 cotton producers on the 1961-2008 period. We compare the performance of those countries with regard to their institutional choices. We first put into perspective the role of pre-reform investments before showing that if reforms may increase yields it could be to the cost of a shrinking area cultivated with cotton. In a second part we study the potential use of meteorological indices to smooth consumption over time and space. Such insurance policies are able to allow quick indemnifications for farmers enduring meteorological shocks. The realisation of the index is independent from the action of the principal and the agent, limiting moral hazard issues and the need for costly damage assessment arising from information asymmetry in traditional insurance contracts. Those insurance however suffer from the limited correlation between the index and the observed yield. We will study the potential of meteorological indices to limit the risk growers face in millet cultivation in Niger and cotton cultivation in Cameroon. We study, in particular, the index choice, the calibration of insurance contract parameters, the necessity of observing the sowing date and the level of basis risk. The large spatial variability of rainfall over the sudano-sahelian zone is a good reason to use such insurance, it however also explain the high level of basis risk of a given index that is observed using a network of rain gauges, itself installed at a cost. We discuss in both cases the relative importance of basis risk and the potential of such insurance to pool yield, and compare them to other risks, such as intra-village yield and price shocks. ; Ce travail de thèse présente l'analyse de deux changements organisationnels dans le cas du secteur agricole en Afrique Subsaharienne. Ce travail est composé de cinq chapitres qui peuvent être regroupés en deux parties distinctes. Dans le premier cas il s'agit de la comparaison et de l'estimation de l'impact de réformes institutionnelles au sein du secteur coton en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Dans le second, de l'étude ex ante d'une innovation organisationnelle récente: les assurances fondées sur des indices météorologiques au sein de la zone soudano-sahélienne. Dans les deux cas ces analyses tentent de répondre à un besoin d'orientation les politiques visant au développement du secteur agricole en Afrique de l'Ouest et plus particulièrement à la question de l'accès au marché du crédit et de l'assurance pour les producteurs, nécessaire pour dépasser le stade de l'agriculture de subsistance (de Janvry et Sadoulet, 2011). Dans le premier chapitre, je passe en revue les réformes des filières cotonnières qui ont eu lieu en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Je construis trois indices synthétiques de libéralisation: la présence de capitaux privés et le degré de concurrence entre égreneurs ainsi que la flexibilité des prix au cours de la campagne. Ceci nous permet de construire et de valider la base de données utilisée dans le second chapitre. Nous montrons d'abord que les deux vagues de réformes ont été très différentes. La première concerne les pays anglophones, dont le secteur cotonnier a été libéralisé entre 1985 et 1995. La seconde (après 1995) concerne les pays francophones d'Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre. Nous montrons que ces dernières reposent plus sur une régulation de la filière, conservant de nombreuses caractéristiques des filières intégrées issue de la colonisation, contrairement aux réformes de la première vague de libéralisation. Tout d'abord, la concurrence établie n'est pas réelle puisque l'on voit l'installation de monopsones territoriaux d'égreneurs: les pays étant, dans la plupart des cas, divisés en zones d'opération pour chacun d'eux. Ensuite, les prix d'achat du coton sont encore fixés au semis et garantis jusque la récolte, absorbant les variations intra-saisonnières du prix international. Finalement on observe une rémanence du secteur privé, bien que des parts des sociétés cotonnières soient cédées au privé. Dans un second chapitre nous étudions l'impact de ces réformes sur la performance du secteur du coton dans les 16 principaux producteurs d'Afriques Sub-Saharienne en 2008. Nous utilisons pour cela des données de panel, issu de la FAO, appariées sur la période 1961-2008 à des données météorologiques mensuelles en grille (CRU TS3.1) considérées sur la période de croissance du coton, ce pour chaque année et chaque pays. Chaque cellule de la grille étant pondérée par la densité des surfaces cultivées en coton sur l'ensemble des territoires nationaux. Nous comparons les pays n'ayant pas réformé aux pays ayant régulé, installé une concurrence faible ou encore une concurrence forte. Nous montrons que les réformes menant à une régulation et à une forte concurrence ont un impact significatif sur les surfaces cultivées et les rendements. Ces résultats semblent validés par une estimation du potentiel biais de sélection, source limité d'endogéneité et robustes aux deux spécifications choisies: la première exploitant la dimension dynamique du panel (méthode des moments généralisés, dite GMM) et la seconde étant une analyse en différence de différences (moindres carrés avec effets fixes). Nous montrons d'abord que les réformes tendent à augmenter les rendements, hormis les réformes menant vers un faible niveau de concurrence, pour lequel l'effet des réformes n'est pas significatif. Les pays ayant régulé leur secteur cotonniers ont vu une croissance des surfaces semées en coton après les réformes. Les réformes menant à une forte compétition ont en revanche eu un impact négatif sur les surfaces cultivées, ce qui tend à valider l'approche institutionnelle qui suppose que le crédit aux intrants au semis, sans autre garantie que le coton récolté en fin de campagne, nécessite une relation de coordination qui est mise à mal par la concurrence. De même, comme le montre la littérature sur le sujet (Brambilla et Porto, 2011), il est possible qu'un effet de sélection ait opéré dans ces secteurs les plus concurrentiels, menant à limiter le nombre de producteurs cultivant du coton, aux dépend des producteurs les moins productifs, n'ayant pas accès aux marchés du crédit et de l'assurance. Dans le troisième chapitre nous réalisons une revue de la littérature sur les assurances indi- cielles, recensant les expériences dans les pays en développement, les méthodes sous-jacentes et les questions de recherche qui en découlent. Nous étudions finalement dans les chapitre 4 et 5 le potentiel de telles assurances dans deux cas spécifiques: le mil au Sud-Ouest du Niger et le coton au Nord du Cameroun. Ces assurances constituent une alternative intéressante aux assurances agricoles traditionnelles, coûteuses en raison de l'asymétrie d'information qui les caractérisent et de la nécessité de constater les dommages effectifs. Dans les deux cas nous montrons d'abord qu'accroître la complexité des indices pour mieux appréhender l'impact de la pluviométrie sur les rendements ne semble pas nécessaire. Les résultats, robustes à la cross-validation, corrigeant l'effet de la sur-identification (over-fitting) montre en effets que les gains de l'assurance sont relativement limités, mais surtout qu'il ne sont pas accrus par l'utilisation d'indices plus sophistiqués. Nous montrons aussi, dans le cas du mil, que la prise en compte de la forte variation des rendements au sein du même village est significative et qu'elle joue un rôle important dans le cas d'une fonction utilité concave. Les parcelles cultivées étant situées à moins de 3 kilomètres de la station météorologique, ce risque de base est bien dû à la présence de chocs idiosyncratiques (maladies, ravageurs.) ou à l'hétérogénéité des agents et des parcelles et non à un choc météorologique. Ce résultat tend à montrer que l'existence de ce risque de base résiduel, peut limiter la demande pour ce type d'assurance, en présence d'aversion pour le risque. Il s'inscrit dans la suite des travaux de Clarke (2011) qui montre que l'absence d'indemnisation, en cas de mauvais rendements, peut rendre l'assurance désavantageuse du fait du paiement de la prime (ce que j'appelle une erreur de type I). Ces résultats doivent être interprétés à la lumière du faible intérêt des producteurs pour ce genre de produits observés dans les récentes, mais néanmoins nombreuses, études ex post. Finalement, toujours dans ce premier cas, l'utilisation de données sur des parcelles fertilisées permet de montrer que ces résultats ne sont pas radicalement modifiés par la prise en compte d'une potentielle intensification des cultures, rendant pourtant la culture de mil plus risquée, et donc l'assurance plus intéressante. Dans le second cas, le coton, nous utilisons d'abord une expérimentation de terrain mettant en œuvre des jeux de loteries (inspiré de Holt et Laury, 2002), pour estimer la distribution des paramètres d'aversion pour le risque des producteurs. Nous montrons d'abord que, dans ce cas, l'effet de l'imparfaite corrélation des rendements et de l'indice météorologique choisi sur le gain en équivalent certain des producteurs, est significatif. C'est en particulier le cas dans les zones les plus humides ou montrant un climat spécifique. Contrairement au cas du mil au Niger, assurer les producteurs de coton semble nécessiter l'observation de la date de semis, dont le simulation ne semble pas nécessaire ou inadéquate vu les contraintes institutionnelles du secteur (comme par exemple les retards de livraison de graines et d'intrants). Nous remarquons ensuite que l'échelle d'étude étant plus importante dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, l'assurance risque de mener à des péréquations non désirées, par exemple des zone les plus humides envers les zones plus arides. Finalement nous observons, dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, que le gain apporté par la stabilisation des rendements est similaire, voire inférieur, à celui apporté par la stabilisation intra-saisonnière des prix qui a lieu aujourd'hui dans la filière Camerounaise intégrée (la Sodecoton détenant le monopole d'achat du coton graine au Cameroun). En effet, en annonçant le prix de vente au moment du semis, la société offre implicitement aux producteurs une assurance contre les variations du prix international au cours de la campagne. J'ai donc montré certaines limites intrinsèques aux mécanismes d'assurance fondés sur des indices météorologiques, en dépit de l'appréhension de la forte variabilité spatiale qui caractérise le climat soudano-sahélien au sein duquel les deux terrains se situent. Nous disposons en effet, dans les deux cas, d'une densité de stations météorologiques unique dans la région permettant de limiter le risque de base spatial. Ces résultats ne prennent toutefois pas en compte les effets indirects de l'assurance qui, lorsqu'elle est offerte conjointement avec un crédit aux intrants, peut baisser le prix de ce dernier, en limitant la probabilité de défaut en cas de sécheresse. J'ai par ailleurs aussi montré l'importance de l'accès au crédit pour les producteurs de coton ainsi que l'intérêt de la couverture contre le risque de variation du prix international dans le cas des cultures de rentes.
The African agricultural sector has been neglected by development aid during the last fifty years. It has not undertaken a green revolution, as it happened in Asia. The continent has a great potential for agricultural production but yields and technology adoption are still very low. Moreover many recent threats to food security represent a challenge for future development in Africa. Demographic growth, increase in commodity prices and price volatility, land use pressure and climate change are probably the most latent threats. In such context, it is necessary to develop new patterns of development for African agriculture. Those patterns should draw the consequences from past policies, which either relied on large investments and in favouring a development of the same nature that the one observed in rich or emerging economies. It seems that improving institutions and the environment to foster the evolution of African agriculture would be more adapted than previous strategies that consist in applying the same methods employed in the past. Food security can be achieved by improving rural households' income. Those households is composed by a vast majority of smallholders, for which agricultural production is a major resource for living. The necessary transition for stimulating production in remote areas seem to rely on fostering technology adoption and improve incentives for investments that would increase the productivity or the value added to smallholder production. We study two major organisational changes that are the reforms of cotton sector market structure in sub-Saharan Africa and index-based insurances. In both cases the point is to look at the potential of every organisation choice, reduce vulnerability and its effect, in particular the poverty trap phenomenon. The final objective is improve long run yield by foster investments, in spite of the risks borne by farmers and the tied budget constraint, consequence of the absence of financial (especially credit) markets. The cotton sectors inherited from the institutions of the colonial era, characterised by the concentration in cotton purchasing activities, often made by a parastatal at the national level. Those institutions contributed to generalise cotton production and to the diffusion of new technologies and agricultural practices, especially thanks to the distribution of quality inputs on credit, with future cotton production as collateral. Cotton production and technology adoption were also probably driven by the existence of a minimum guaranteed price set at the beginning of the cultivation season, the investments in infrastructures, research and extension services at the same national level. However, the concentration of the purchasing of cotton also poses some problems, reducing the bargaining power of producers and the proximity of the cotton. We look at the productivity response to cotton sector reforms that took place since 1985 in sub-Saharan Africa using the data from 16 cotton producers on the 1961-2008 period. We compare the performance of those countries with regard to their institutional choices. We first put into perspective the role of pre-reform investments before showing that if reforms may increase yields it could be to the cost of a shrinking area cultivated with cotton. In a second part we study the potential use of meteorological indices to smooth consumption over time and space. Such insurance policies are able to allow quick indemnifications for farmers enduring meteorological shocks. The realisation of the index is independent from the action of the principal and the agent, limiting moral hazard issues and the need for costly damage assessment arising from information asymmetry in traditional insurance contracts. Those insurance however suffer from the limited correlation between the index and the observed yield. We will study the potential of meteorological indices to limit the risk growers face in millet cultivation in Niger and cotton cultivation in Cameroon. We study, in particular, the index choice, the calibration of insurance contract parameters, the necessity of observing the sowing date and the level of basis risk. The large spatial variability of rainfall over the sudano-sahelian zone is a good reason to use such insurance, it however also explain the high level of basis risk of a given index that is observed using a network of rain gauges, itself installed at a cost. We discuss in both cases the relative importance of basis risk and the potential of such insurance to pool yield, and compare them to other risks, such as intra-village yield and price shocks. ; Ce travail de thèse présente l'analyse de deux changements organisationnels dans le cas du secteur agricole en Afrique Subsaharienne. Ce travail est composé de cinq chapitres qui peuvent être regroupés en deux parties distinctes. Dans le premier cas il s'agit de la comparaison et de l'estimation de l'impact de réformes institutionnelles au sein du secteur coton en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Dans le second, de l'étude ex ante d'une innovation organisationnelle récente: les assurances fondées sur des indices météorologiques au sein de la zone soudano-sahélienne. Dans les deux cas ces analyses tentent de répondre à un besoin d'orientation les politiques visant au développement du secteur agricole en Afrique de l'Ouest et plus particulièrement à la question de l'accès au marché du crédit et de l'assurance pour les producteurs, nécessaire pour dépasser le stade de l'agriculture de subsistance (de Janvry et Sadoulet, 2011). Dans le premier chapitre, je passe en revue les réformes des filières cotonnières qui ont eu lieu en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Je construis trois indices synthétiques de libéralisation: la présence de capitaux privés et le degré de concurrence entre égreneurs ainsi que la flexibilité des prix au cours de la campagne. Ceci nous permet de construire et de valider la base de données utilisée dans le second chapitre. Nous montrons d'abord que les deux vagues de réformes ont été très différentes. La première concerne les pays anglophones, dont le secteur cotonnier a été libéralisé entre 1985 et 1995. La seconde (après 1995) concerne les pays francophones d'Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre. Nous montrons que ces dernières reposent plus sur une régulation de la filière, conservant de nombreuses caractéristiques des filières intégrées issue de la colonisation, contrairement aux réformes de la première vague de libéralisation. Tout d'abord, la concurrence établie n'est pas réelle puisque l'on voit l'installation de monopsones territoriaux d'égreneurs: les pays étant, dans la plupart des cas, divisés en zones d'opération pour chacun d'eux. Ensuite, les prix d'achat du coton sont encore fixés au semis et garantis jusque la récolte, absorbant les variations intra-saisonnières du prix international. Finalement on observe une rémanence du secteur privé, bien que des parts des sociétés cotonnières soient cédées au privé. Dans un second chapitre nous étudions l'impact de ces réformes sur la performance du secteur du coton dans les 16 principaux producteurs d'Afriques Sub-Saharienne en 2008. Nous utilisons pour cela des données de panel, issu de la FAO, appariées sur la période 1961-2008 à des données météorologiques mensuelles en grille (CRU TS3.1) considérées sur la période de croissance du coton, ce pour chaque année et chaque pays. Chaque cellule de la grille étant pondérée par la densité des surfaces cultivées en coton sur l'ensemble des territoires nationaux. Nous comparons les pays n'ayant pas réformé aux pays ayant régulé, installé une concurrence faible ou encore une concurrence forte. Nous montrons que les réformes menant à une régulation et à une forte concurrence ont un impact significatif sur les surfaces cultivées et les rendements. Ces résultats semblent validés par une estimation du potentiel biais de sélection, source limité d'endogéneité et robustes aux deux spécifications choisies: la première exploitant la dimension dynamique du panel (méthode des moments généralisés, dite GMM) et la seconde étant une analyse en différence de différences (moindres carrés avec effets fixes). Nous montrons d'abord que les réformes tendent à augmenter les rendements, hormis les réformes menant vers un faible niveau de concurrence, pour lequel l'effet des réformes n'est pas significatif. Les pays ayant régulé leur secteur cotonniers ont vu une croissance des surfaces semées en coton après les réformes. Les réformes menant à une forte compétition ont en revanche eu un impact négatif sur les surfaces cultivées, ce qui tend à valider l'approche institutionnelle qui suppose que le crédit aux intrants au semis, sans autre garantie que le coton récolté en fin de campagne, nécessite une relation de coordination qui est mise à mal par la concurrence. De même, comme le montre la littérature sur le sujet (Brambilla et Porto, 2011), il est possible qu'un effet de sélection ait opéré dans ces secteurs les plus concurrentiels, menant à limiter le nombre de producteurs cultivant du coton, aux dépend des producteurs les moins productifs, n'ayant pas accès aux marchés du crédit et de l'assurance. Dans le troisième chapitre nous réalisons une revue de la littérature sur les assurances indi- cielles, recensant les expériences dans les pays en développement, les méthodes sous-jacentes et les questions de recherche qui en découlent. Nous étudions finalement dans les chapitre 4 et 5 le potentiel de telles assurances dans deux cas spécifiques: le mil au Sud-Ouest du Niger et le coton au Nord du Cameroun. Ces assurances constituent une alternative intéressante aux assurances agricoles traditionnelles, coûteuses en raison de l'asymétrie d'information qui les caractérisent et de la nécessité de constater les dommages effectifs. Dans les deux cas nous montrons d'abord qu'accroître la complexité des indices pour mieux appréhender l'impact de la pluviométrie sur les rendements ne semble pas nécessaire. Les résultats, robustes à la cross-validation, corrigeant l'effet de la sur-identification (over-fitting) montre en effets que les gains de l'assurance sont relativement limités, mais surtout qu'il ne sont pas accrus par l'utilisation d'indices plus sophistiqués. Nous montrons aussi, dans le cas du mil, que la prise en compte de la forte variation des rendements au sein du même village est significative et qu'elle joue un rôle important dans le cas d'une fonction utilité concave. Les parcelles cultivées étant situées à moins de 3 kilomètres de la station météorologique, ce risque de base est bien dû à la présence de chocs idiosyncratiques (maladies, ravageurs.) ou à l'hétérogénéité des agents et des parcelles et non à un choc météorologique. Ce résultat tend à montrer que l'existence de ce risque de base résiduel, peut limiter la demande pour ce type d'assurance, en présence d'aversion pour le risque. Il s'inscrit dans la suite des travaux de Clarke (2011) qui montre que l'absence d'indemnisation, en cas de mauvais rendements, peut rendre l'assurance désavantageuse du fait du paiement de la prime (ce que j'appelle une erreur de type I). Ces résultats doivent être interprétés à la lumière du faible intérêt des producteurs pour ce genre de produits observés dans les récentes, mais néanmoins nombreuses, études ex post. Finalement, toujours dans ce premier cas, l'utilisation de données sur des parcelles fertilisées permet de montrer que ces résultats ne sont pas radicalement modifiés par la prise en compte d'une potentielle intensification des cultures, rendant pourtant la culture de mil plus risquée, et donc l'assurance plus intéressante. Dans le second cas, le coton, nous utilisons d'abord une expérimentation de terrain mettant en œuvre des jeux de loteries (inspiré de Holt et Laury, 2002), pour estimer la distribution des paramètres d'aversion pour le risque des producteurs. Nous montrons d'abord que, dans ce cas, l'effet de l'imparfaite corrélation des rendements et de l'indice météorologique choisi sur le gain en équivalent certain des producteurs, est significatif. C'est en particulier le cas dans les zones les plus humides ou montrant un climat spécifique. Contrairement au cas du mil au Niger, assurer les producteurs de coton semble nécessiter l'observation de la date de semis, dont le simulation ne semble pas nécessaire ou inadéquate vu les contraintes institutionnelles du secteur (comme par exemple les retards de livraison de graines et d'intrants). Nous remarquons ensuite que l'échelle d'étude étant plus importante dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, l'assurance risque de mener à des péréquations non désirées, par exemple des zone les plus humides envers les zones plus arides. Finalement nous observons, dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, que le gain apporté par la stabilisation des rendements est similaire, voire inférieur, à celui apporté par la stabilisation intra-saisonnière des prix qui a lieu aujourd'hui dans la filière Camerounaise intégrée (la Sodecoton détenant le monopole d'achat du coton graine au Cameroun). En effet, en annonçant le prix de vente au moment du semis, la société offre implicitement aux producteurs une assurance contre les variations du prix international au cours de la campagne. J'ai donc montré certaines limites intrinsèques aux mécanismes d'assurance fondés sur des indices météorologiques, en dépit de l'appréhension de la forte variabilité spatiale qui caractérise le climat soudano-sahélien au sein duquel les deux terrains se situent. Nous disposons en effet, dans les deux cas, d'une densité de stations météorologiques unique dans la région permettant de limiter le risque de base spatial. Ces résultats ne prennent toutefois pas en compte les effets indirects de l'assurance qui, lorsqu'elle est offerte conjointement avec un crédit aux intrants, peut baisser le prix de ce dernier, en limitant la probabilité de défaut en cas de sécheresse. J'ai par ailleurs aussi montré l'importance de l'accès au crédit pour les producteurs de coton ainsi que l'intérêt de la couverture contre le risque de variation du prix international dans le cas des cultures de rentes.
Para la comprensión de la importancia que ha poseído y posee la interacción entre historia y economía podemos introducir a un gran economista nacido en Turquía, que ha estudiado en Inglaterra y que enseña en EE.UU. El genial Daron Acemoglu muy posiblemente reciba el Premio Nobel de Economía en algún momento de los próximos 30 años. Acemoglu nació en 1967 (cumplirá apenas 45 años el próximo 3 de septiembre), obtuvo su grado en economía (1989) en la Universidad de York (Inglaterra), su master (1990) y doctorado (1992) en el London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). Su tesis doctoral se tituló "Essays in Microfoundations of Macroeconomics: Contracts and Economic Performance". En LSE fue lecturer en Economía en 1992 y 1993 y desde entonces enseña en el prestigioso Massachusetts Institute of Technology (M.I.T)El programa de investigación del profesor Acemoglu tiene un hito en dos influyentes artículos: "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation", escrito en co-autoría con los profesores Simon Johnson y James A. Robinson en 2001 (1) y "Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution", escrito también con Johnson y Robinson, en el año 2002 (2). Estos dos trabajos tienen una clara vinculación con su último libro, "Why Nations fails, the origins of power, prosperity and poverty" (3) (http://whynationsfail.com/). En ese lapso el autor ha desarrollado un notable programa de investigación donde ha logrado articular una hipótesis principal: ni la geografía ni el clima ni la raza ni la religión explican la prosperidad y la pobreza. En cambio, ellas se explican por las instituciones o reglas de juego.La relevancia que ha tenido "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development" en su carrera académica queda reflejada en las sucesivas respuestas a críticas recibidas tanto en notas de opinión como en otros artículos académicos. En su CV aparece como último trabajo una de estas respuestas ("Hither Thou Shalt Come, But No Further - Reply to The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development - An Empirical Investigation" - Comment, forthcoming American Economic Review. Nuevamente, en coautoría con Simon Johnson y James Robinson). Allí es posible ver la variedad de temas y enfoques del autor. También es posible ver en su CV que dentro de sus campos de interés o "Fields of interest" no hay menciones a la disciplina de la historia, ciencia política o análisis institucional. Acemoglu sostiene que sus campos de interés son "Political Economy, Economic Development, Economic Growth, Economic Theory, Technology, Income and Wage Inequality, Human Capital and Training, Labor Economics, Network Economics". Notablemente, uno de los mas importantes historiadores económicos contemporáneos no menciona este área como parte de su carrera académica.La singularidad de su programa de investigación es que para articular la hipótesis sobre el papel de las instituciones en la prosperidad, que en si misma no es particularmente original, recorre un camino analítico donde conjuga historia y economía. Allí radica la novedad de un programa de investigación que en su esencia alcanza conclusiones mayormente conocidas. Como mencionamos, se puede prosperar en sociedades católicas, budistas o protestantes y se puede sucumbir en sociedades situadas geográficamente sobre el Ecuador, cercanas o lejanas al mismo. Sin embargo, es difícil prosperar con instituciones o reglas de juego que, en el largo plazo, consoliden una dinámica extractiva, donde los actores principales sean ineficientes para innovar y eficientes en la captura de recursos.Un punto central en su programa de investigación lo termina de definir en el mencionado último trabajo, "Why Nations Fail". Allí Acemoglu hace hincapié en la existencia en la historia de sociedades que pueden prosperar por un lapso de tiempo a pesar de la aparición y consolidación de instituciones extractivas. Menciona ejemplos tan diversos como las sociedades mayas y el proceso que lleva de la República al Imperio en Roma. Contemporáneamente, introduce como ejemplo a la Unión Soviética y remarca que la experiencia de la China comunista se asienta sobre una lógica extractiva que, en algún momento, la llevará al estancamiento.¿Cuáles son las instituciones extractivas? Aquellas que establecen reglas de juego donde un pequeño grupo de personas logra distribuir los recursos existentes desde otros hacia ellos y, mas importante aún, logra hacerlo eficientemente. La eficiencia en la captura es clave para generar un escenario con cierto grado de estabilidad en el mediano plazo.Sin embargo, es necesario marcar un punto central donde el corto-medio y medio-largo plazo se tocan y generan una tensión analítica relevante para el estudio de la historia económica y de los procesos políticos: las instituciones extractivas pueden permanecer mas allá del corto-mediano plazo cuanto mas alto sea el stock inicial de capital acumulado por la sociedad en cuestión, tanto en los procesos inclusivos pasados (capital humano) como en los procesos inclusivos contemporáneos. Es decir, la diferencia principal entre la estabilidad en el tiempo de la experiencia maya y la experiencia de la china comunista contemporánea podría ser que el stock de recursos acumulado por la sociedad china a partir, básicamente, de la importación desde occidente de bienes y servicios inclusivos, genera un colchón lo suficientemente amplio como para sostener sus instituciones extractivas.En este sentido, la notable hipótesis de Acemoglu podría enfrentar una anomalía: a la par de las instituciones extractivas que ha desarrollado el opaco régimen comunista chino han convivido instituciones inclusivas tácitas que son, básicamente, aquellas que informalmente ha importado el nuevo modelo chino desde su apertura en 1978. A diferencia de los mayas y romanos, que no importaban instituciones del resto del mundo o lo hacían en menor medida, la china comunista ha incorporado tácita y espontáneamente instituciones inclusivas de occidente que hacen posible mantener en el tiempo las complejas instituciones extractivas que ha desarrollado y consolidado desde mediados del siglo XX.Desde otra perspectiva, podemos desarrollar el mismo argumento: el crecimiento en la productividad que ha mostrado la economía contemporánea (desde la revolución industrial en adelante y, mas particularmente, desde el fin de la segunda guerra) supone la existencia de un nuevo ciclo económico que ha hecho posible que los procesos puramente redistributivos o extractivos sean mas estables en el mediano plazo. Es decir, siguiendo la hipótesis de Acemoglu, es posible pensar un escenario en el mediano plazo donde la creciente prosperidad contribuya, ceteris paribus, a un creciente debilitamiento de los derechos de propiedad. En el extremo, en un mundo donde la escasez tendiera a cero, la correcta delimitación de derechos de propiedad tendría una importancia decreciente. Si fuera cierto que nos encontramos en una inédita era de la abundancia, podríamos sospechar que enfrentaremos en el corto-mediano plazo un escenario donde los derechos de propiedad "clásicos" pierdan relativamente su influencia o valor económico, ya que la mencionada abundancia haría que la aparición de una crisis (que en parte son una consecuencia (tautológica) de alguna forma de escasez) se retardara en el tiempo. Paso seguido, es necesario preguntarse si la llegada de esa inédita abundancia con la subsiguiente aparición de un ciclo económico mas largo no tendrá como contraparte la aparición de una crisis mas profunda. Es decir, si es que la abundancia ha disimulado ineficiencias, la pregunta relevante sería si, en cambio, esas ineficiencias no se han meramente acumuladoEl papel de las instituciones "extractivas" versus las inclusivas es clave en el programa de investigación que lleva a cabo Acemoglu. El concepto supone en si mismo un profundo conocimiento histórico y económico y, por otro lado, un particular interés en entender qué aportes podemos encontrar cuando sistematizamos ambas corrientes en lo que hoy denominamos "Historia Económica". Para Acemoglu, determinados conceptos, como el de "instituciones extractivas", suponen un punto de encuentro entre historia y economía porque la relación entre ambas deviene "análisis institucional". Siguiendo la noble tradición de Douglas North, Acemoglu ha enriquecido una corriente de pensamiento donde el estudio de la historia económica no busca claves ni históricas ni económicas sino claves institucionales. En esta escuela de pensamiento, el estudio de la historia económica deviene, por un lado, estudio de la historia de la evolución de las instituciones y, por otro lado, supone el estudio de la relación entre economía y derechos de propiedad.Sostiene Acemoglu que "extractive institutions are so common in history because they have a powerful logic: they can generate some limited prosperity while at the same time distributing it into the hands of a small elite. For this growth to happen, there must be political centralization. Once this is in place, the state-typically has incentives to invest and generate wealth, encourage others to invest so that the state can extract resources from them, and even mimic some of the processes that would normally be set in motion by inclusive eonomic institutions and markets. In the Caribbean plantation economies, extractive institutions took the form of the elite using coerción to forcé slaves to produce sugar. In the Soviet Union, they took of the comunist party reallocating resources from agricultura to industry and structuring some sort of incentives for managers and workers…" (4)Acemoglu, continuando la noble tradición de North, re-significa la historia económica para interpretarla en clave del papel de las instituciones en la prosperidad de las naciones. Es decir, para el autor determinadas series históricas brindarían mas rigurosidad a la comprensión del pasado porque nos ayudarían a entender mejor las instituciones o reglas de juego que permitieron la prosperidad o colapso de distintas sociedades. El papel de la moderna historia económica ha sido principalmente brindarle rigurosidad al estudio de las instituciones y solo secundariamente brindarle rigurosidad a la economía y sus diferentes ramas, como la econometría y estadística.La economía extractiva posee una dimensión institucional que puede ser pensada a partir del clásico concepto de "destrucción creativa", enunciado por el economista austríaco Joseph Schumpeter. Acemoglu hace sistemático hincapié en la oposición entre instituciones extractivas y destrucción creativa porque aquella genera reglas de juego que castigan el riesgo. La destrucción creativa schumpeteriana está inexorablemente ligada a la posibilidad de asumir un riesgo y privatizar tanto la hipotética ganancia como la hipotética pérdida. La lógica de las instituciones extractivas hacen que el riesgo que posee todo intento de innovación suponga para el innovador la privatización ante un posible fracaso y la colectivización ante el eventual éxito. El punto es relevante, y Acemoglu lo desarrolla brillantemente, porque aparece claro que en ese escenario es difícil incluso que intenten innovar aquellos que saben que, como en ellos reside el poder, serán capaces de apropiarse de las innovaciones exitosas y desprenderse de las innovaciones fracasadas. Es necesario aquí intentar profundizar al argumento de Acemoglu, incorporando para ello el rol comparativo que juegan las instituciones inclusivas que, como mencionamos, las economías extractivas pueden importar del resto del mundo. Este punto lo desarrollaremos en la tercera parte. Es possible acceder a una presentación de Acemoglu sobre su último libro en la Universidad de Scranton, en https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRAkz13cpsk . Jared Diamond realiza una reseña del libro en el New York Reviews of Books (http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2012/jun/07/what-makes-countries-rich-or-poor/?pagination=false). Acemoglu y Robinson envían una carta de lectores en respuesta a la reseña y Diamond responde la carta en http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2012/aug/16/why-nations-fail/Referencias: (1) "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation", Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson y James A. Robinson The American Economic Review Vol. 91, No. 5 (Dec., 2001), pp. 1369-1401 (2)"Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution", Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson y James A. Robinson. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117, No. 4 (Nov., 2002), pp. 1231-1294. Podemos citar el abstract de este trabajo : "Among countries colonized by European powers during the past 500 years, those that were relatively rich in 1500 are now relatively poor. We document this reversal using data on urbanization patterns and population density, which, we argue, proxy for economic prosperity. This reversal weighs against a view that links economic development to geographic factors. Instead, we argue that the reversal reflects changes in the institutions resulting from European colonialism. The European intervention appears to have created an "institutional reversal" among these societies, meaning that Europeans were more likely to introduce institutions encouraging investment in regions that were previously poor. This institutional reversal accounts for the reversal in relative incomes. We provide further support for this view by documenting that the reversal in relative incomes took place during the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, and resulted from societies with good institutions taking advantage of the opportunity to industrialize". Este notable trabajo puede leerse en parte como una respuesta crítica a la clásica tesis defendida por el profesor Jared Diamond en "Guns, germs and steel: the fates of human society" quién es el defensor mas prominente de la tesis que liga desarrollo y geografía. (3)Why Nations fails, the origins of power, prosperity and poverty", Crown Bussiness, 2012. En coautoria con James Robinson. (4)Acemoglu y Robinson, "Why Nations Fail", obra citada. Página 114. Sobre los autores Cristina Edbrook es Licenciada en Relaciones Internacionales (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella-Argentina) y maestrando en Arquitectura Urbana (Universidad Di Tella-Argentina)Pedro Isern es Profesor Depto. de Estudios Internacionales.FACS. Universidad ORT Uruguay.
The African agricultural sector has been neglected by development aid during the last fifty years. It has not undertaken a green revolution, as it happened in Asia. The continent has a great potential for agricultural production but yields and technology adoption are still very low. Moreover many recent threats to food security represent a challenge for future development in Africa. Demographic growth, increase in commodity prices and price volatility, land use pressure and climate change are probably the most latent threats. In such context, it is necessary to develop new patterns of development for African agriculture. Those patterns should draw the consequences from past policies, which either relied on large investments and in favouring a development of the same nature that the one observed in rich or emerging economies. It seems that improving institutions and the environment to foster the evolution of African agriculture would be more adapted than previous strategies that consist in applying the same methods employed in the past. Food security can be achieved by improving rural households' income. Those households is composed by a vast majority of smallholders, for which agricultural production is a major resource for living. The necessary transition for stimulating production in remote areas seem to rely on fostering technology adoption and improve incentives for investments that would increase the productivity or the value added to smallholder production. We study two major organisational changes that are the reforms of cotton sector market structure in sub-Saharan Africa and index-based insurances. In both cases the point is to look at the potential of every organisation choice, reduce vulnerability and its effect, in particular the poverty trap phenomenon. The final objective is improve long run yield by foster investments, in spite of the risks borne by farmers and the tied budget constraint, consequence of the absence of financial (especially credit) markets. The cotton sectors inherited from the institutions of the colonial era, characterised by the concentration in cotton purchasing activities, often made by a parastatal at the national level. Those institutions contributed to generalise cotton production and to the diffusion of new technologies and agricultural practices, especially thanks to the distribution of quality inputs on credit, with future cotton production as collateral. Cotton production and technology adoption were also probably driven by the existence of a minimum guaranteed price set at the beginning of the cultivation season, the investments in infrastructures, research and extension services at the same national level. However, the concentration of the purchasing of cotton also poses some problems, reducing the bargaining power of producers and the proximity of the cotton. We look at the productivity response to cotton sector reforms that took place since 1985 in sub-Saharan Africa using the data from 16 cotton producers on the 1961-2008 period. We compare the performance of those countries with regard to their institutional choices. We first put into perspective the role of pre-reform investments before showing that if reforms may increase yields it could be to the cost of a shrinking area cultivated with cotton. In a second part we study the potential use of meteorological indices to smooth consumption over time and space. Such insurance policies are able to allow quick indemnifications for farmers enduring meteorological shocks. The realisation of the index is independent from the action of the principal and the agent, limiting moral hazard issues and the need for costly damage assessment arising from information asymmetry in traditional insurance contracts. Those insurance however suffer from the limited correlation between the index and the observed yield. We will study the potential of meteorological indices to limit the risk growers face in millet cultivation in Niger and cotton cultivation in Cameroon. We study, in particular, the index choice, the calibration of insurance contract parameters, the necessity of observing the sowing date and the level of basis risk. The large spatial variability of rainfall over the sudano-sahelian zone is a good reason to use such insurance, it however also explain the high level of basis risk of a given index that is observed using a network of rain gauges, itself installed at a cost. We discuss in both cases the relative importance of basis risk and the potential of such insurance to pool yield, and compare them to other risks, such as intra-village yield and price shocks. ; Ce travail de thèse présente l'analyse de deux changements organisationnels dans le cas du secteur agricole en Afrique Subsaharienne. Ce travail est composé de cinq chapitres qui peuvent être regroupés en deux parties distinctes. Dans le premier cas il s'agit de la comparaison et de l'estimation de l'impact de réformes institutionnelles au sein du secteur coton en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Dans le second, de l'étude ex ante d'une innovation organisationnelle récente: les assurances fondées sur des indices météorologiques au sein de la zone soudano-sahélienne. Dans les deux cas ces analyses tentent de répondre à un besoin d'orientation les politiques visant au développement du secteur agricole en Afrique de l'Ouest et plus particulièrement à la question de l'accès au marché du crédit et de l'assurance pour les producteurs, nécessaire pour dépasser le stade de l'agriculture de subsistance (de Janvry et Sadoulet, 2011). Dans le premier chapitre, je passe en revue les réformes des filières cotonnières qui ont eu lieu en Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Je construis trois indices synthétiques de libéralisation: la présence de capitaux privés et le degré de concurrence entre égreneurs ainsi que la flexibilité des prix au cours de la campagne. Ceci nous permet de construire et de valider la base de données utilisée dans le second chapitre. Nous montrons d'abord que les deux vagues de réformes ont été très différentes. La première concerne les pays anglophones, dont le secteur cotonnier a été libéralisé entre 1985 et 1995. La seconde (après 1995) concerne les pays francophones d'Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre. Nous montrons que ces dernières reposent plus sur une régulation de la filière, conservant de nombreuses caractéristiques des filières intégrées issue de la colonisation, contrairement aux réformes de la première vague de libéralisation. Tout d'abord, la concurrence établie n'est pas réelle puisque l'on voit l'installation de monopsones territoriaux d'égreneurs: les pays étant, dans la plupart des cas, divisés en zones d'opération pour chacun d'eux. Ensuite, les prix d'achat du coton sont encore fixés au semis et garantis jusque la récolte, absorbant les variations intra-saisonnières du prix international. Finalement on observe une rémanence du secteur privé, bien que des parts des sociétés cotonnières soient cédées au privé. Dans un second chapitre nous étudions l'impact de ces réformes sur la performance du secteur du coton dans les 16 principaux producteurs d'Afriques Sub-Saharienne en 2008. Nous utilisons pour cela des données de panel, issu de la FAO, appariées sur la période 1961-2008 à des données météorologiques mensuelles en grille (CRU TS3.1) considérées sur la période de croissance du coton, ce pour chaque année et chaque pays. Chaque cellule de la grille étant pondérée par la densité des surfaces cultivées en coton sur l'ensemble des territoires nationaux. Nous comparons les pays n'ayant pas réformé aux pays ayant régulé, installé une concurrence faible ou encore une concurrence forte. Nous montrons que les réformes menant à une régulation et à une forte concurrence ont un impact significatif sur les surfaces cultivées et les rendements. Ces résultats semblent validés par une estimation du potentiel biais de sélection, source limité d'endogéneité et robustes aux deux spécifications choisies: la première exploitant la dimension dynamique du panel (méthode des moments généralisés, dite GMM) et la seconde étant une analyse en différence de différences (moindres carrés avec effets fixes). Nous montrons d'abord que les réformes tendent à augmenter les rendements, hormis les réformes menant vers un faible niveau de concurrence, pour lequel l'effet des réformes n'est pas significatif. Les pays ayant régulé leur secteur cotonniers ont vu une croissance des surfaces semées en coton après les réformes. Les réformes menant à une forte compétition ont en revanche eu un impact négatif sur les surfaces cultivées, ce qui tend à valider l'approche institutionnelle qui suppose que le crédit aux intrants au semis, sans autre garantie que le coton récolté en fin de campagne, nécessite une relation de coordination qui est mise à mal par la concurrence. De même, comme le montre la littérature sur le sujet (Brambilla et Porto, 2011), il est possible qu'un effet de sélection ait opéré dans ces secteurs les plus concurrentiels, menant à limiter le nombre de producteurs cultivant du coton, aux dépend des producteurs les moins productifs, n'ayant pas accès aux marchés du crédit et de l'assurance. Dans le troisième chapitre nous réalisons une revue de la littérature sur les assurances indi- cielles, recensant les expériences dans les pays en développement, les méthodes sous-jacentes et les questions de recherche qui en découlent. Nous étudions finalement dans les chapitre 4 et 5 le potentiel de telles assurances dans deux cas spécifiques: le mil au Sud-Ouest du Niger et le coton au Nord du Cameroun. Ces assurances constituent une alternative intéressante aux assurances agricoles traditionnelles, coûteuses en raison de l'asymétrie d'information qui les caractérisent et de la nécessité de constater les dommages effectifs. Dans les deux cas nous montrons d'abord qu'accroître la complexité des indices pour mieux appréhender l'impact de la pluviométrie sur les rendements ne semble pas nécessaire. Les résultats, robustes à la cross-validation, corrigeant l'effet de la sur-identification (over-fitting) montre en effets que les gains de l'assurance sont relativement limités, mais surtout qu'il ne sont pas accrus par l'utilisation d'indices plus sophistiqués. Nous montrons aussi, dans le cas du mil, que la prise en compte de la forte variation des rendements au sein du même village est significative et qu'elle joue un rôle important dans le cas d'une fonction utilité concave. Les parcelles cultivées étant situées à moins de 3 kilomètres de la station météorologique, ce risque de base est bien dû à la présence de chocs idiosyncratiques (maladies, ravageurs.) ou à l'hétérogénéité des agents et des parcelles et non à un choc météorologique. Ce résultat tend à montrer que l'existence de ce risque de base résiduel, peut limiter la demande pour ce type d'assurance, en présence d'aversion pour le risque. Il s'inscrit dans la suite des travaux de Clarke (2011) qui montre que l'absence d'indemnisation, en cas de mauvais rendements, peut rendre l'assurance désavantageuse du fait du paiement de la prime (ce que j'appelle une erreur de type I). Ces résultats doivent être interprétés à la lumière du faible intérêt des producteurs pour ce genre de produits observés dans les récentes, mais néanmoins nombreuses, études ex post. Finalement, toujours dans ce premier cas, l'utilisation de données sur des parcelles fertilisées permet de montrer que ces résultats ne sont pas radicalement modifiés par la prise en compte d'une potentielle intensification des cultures, rendant pourtant la culture de mil plus risquée, et donc l'assurance plus intéressante. Dans le second cas, le coton, nous utilisons d'abord une expérimentation de terrain mettant en œuvre des jeux de loteries (inspiré de Holt et Laury, 2002), pour estimer la distribution des paramètres d'aversion pour le risque des producteurs. Nous montrons d'abord que, dans ce cas, l'effet de l'imparfaite corrélation des rendements et de l'indice météorologique choisi sur le gain en équivalent certain des producteurs, est significatif. C'est en particulier le cas dans les zones les plus humides ou montrant un climat spécifique. Contrairement au cas du mil au Niger, assurer les producteurs de coton semble nécessiter l'observation de la date de semis, dont le simulation ne semble pas nécessaire ou inadéquate vu les contraintes institutionnelles du secteur (comme par exemple les retards de livraison de graines et d'intrants). Nous remarquons ensuite que l'échelle d'étude étant plus importante dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, l'assurance risque de mener à des péréquations non désirées, par exemple des zone les plus humides envers les zones plus arides. Finalement nous observons, dans le cas du coton au Cameroun, que le gain apporté par la stabilisation des rendements est similaire, voire inférieur, à celui apporté par la stabilisation intra-saisonnière des prix qui a lieu aujourd'hui dans la filière Camerounaise intégrée (la Sodecoton détenant le monopole d'achat du coton graine au Cameroun). En effet, en annonçant le prix de vente au moment du semis, la société offre implicitement aux producteurs une assurance contre les variations du prix international au cours de la campagne. J'ai donc montré certaines limites intrinsèques aux mécanismes d'assurance fondés sur des indices météorologiques, en dépit de l'appréhension de la forte variabilité spatiale qui caractérise le climat soudano-sahélien au sein duquel les deux terrains se situent. Nous disposons en effet, dans les deux cas, d'une densité de stations météorologiques unique dans la région permettant de limiter le risque de base spatial. Ces résultats ne prennent toutefois pas en compte les effets indirects de l'assurance qui, lorsqu'elle est offerte conjointement avec un crédit aux intrants, peut baisser le prix de ce dernier, en limitant la probabilité de défaut en cas de sécheresse. J'ai par ailleurs aussi montré l'importance de l'accès au crédit pour les producteurs de coton ainsi que l'intérêt de la couverture contre le risque de variation du prix international dans le cas des cultures de rentes.
¿Qué significa estudiar las relaciones internacionales? Y más en concreto, ¿qué significa pensar teóricamente acerca de los asuntos mundiales? Sin lugar a dudas que existe más de una forma de responder a estas interrogantes. Sin embargo, como intentaré explicar en las siguientes líneas, considero que hay una sola forma prometedora de hacerlo. Es sólo a través de un profundo respeto y comprensión del carácter descentralizado (o "anárquico") de las relaciones internacionales, de sus límites y de su alcance, que se vuelve verdaderamente posible entender, analizar y aspirar a mejorar los diversos problemas comunes del escenario mundial.No obstante, dos elementos centrales deben ser atendidos primero. Por un lado, para poder responder a la primer interrogante, es necesario consensuar qué significa el término "relaciones internacionales"; es decir, sobre qué hace único y distintivo a este campo de estudio con respecto a otros, como por ejemplo la ciencia política o la economía empresarial. Sólo luego será posible explicar qué significa "estudiar" las relaciones internacionales. Y por el otro lado, para aproximar una respuesta a la última pregunta, es clave comprender la importancia de buscar buenos métodos para simplificar la realidad (como por ejemplo, el pensar en diversos niveles de abstracción) para poder así desentrañar mejor tanto las fuerzas que moldean los asuntos internacionales -a veces incluso de una manera poco perceptible- como también su alcance, límites e importancia en el estudio de las relaciones internacionales.En este sentido, si bien la disciplina de las relaciones internacionales es algo relativamente moderno --téngase en cuenta que la primer escuela dedicada al estudio de los asuntos internacionales data de 1919, en Aberystwyth, Gales--, su foco de análisis es tan antiguo como el ser humano. Así, el estudio del fenómeno de la guerra entre diversos "grupos sociales" a lo largo de toda la historia (ya sea que hablemos de imperios, estados, naciones, principados, ciudades-estado, o incluso de pandillas o tribus), desde siempre ha constituido una preocupación central de la humanidad; y es y seguirá siendo la gran concentración de los académicos de relaciones internacionales.Ahora bien, si pensamos sobre qué hace realmente único y distintivo a las relaciones internacionales con respecto a cualquier otro campo de estudio, veremos que en su nivel más fundamental la respuesta se encuentra en que, a diferencia otros ámbitos, en el escenario internacional no existe un gobierno central que resguarde el orden, que sostenga un sistema unificado de leyes, ni que provea bienes de uso público global. En otras palabras, el sistema de estados es "tierra de nadie". Siguiendo al famoso pensador inglés Thomas Hobbes, los estados se encuentran internacionalmente en un virtual "estado de naturaleza" o en una situación "anárquica", donde cada cual debe proveerse su propia seguridad.Las implicancias de esta ausencia de una entidad global que centralice el poder son numerosas y muy importantes. Algunas de las más evidentes, por ejemplo, consisten en que si un estado ve amenazada su supervivencia en el escenario internacional, como dice John J. Mearsheimer, no hay un "911" al cual recurrir. Como consecuencia de ello, las múltiples necesidades comunes de la humanidad (como el resguardar los derechos humanos, o el combatir la pobreza endémica, el terrorismo internacional, la proliferación nuclear, la contaminación ambiental, etc.) usualmente son totalmente desatendidas. Veamos con más detalle algunos de estos elementos.Por un lado, la condición anárquica del sistema internacional conlleva consigo una potencial gran negligencia en cuanto al manejo de los asuntos más importantes concernientes a la paz y la guerra entre los estados. Dado que en las relaciones internacionales los estados son también grupos sociales unificados, éstos tienden a desarrollar normas, valores y objetivos auto-interesados, que de una u otra manera involucran fuertemente la cuestión de su supervivencia como grupo. En este mundo de grupos sociales necesitadamente egoístas, es muy difícil que un estado desarrolle un interés verdaderamente altruista o cosmopolita, poniendo en segundo plano (o incluso en riesgo) a los suyos. Es decir, surge una típica situación en donde prima la raison d'État, y donde difícilmente se persigue una raison du système. En la vida internacional "cada cual atiende su juego".Por el otro, resaltar la importancia de los efectos limitantes de la anarquía internacional por sobre las diversas áreas de estudio y de actividad humana a nivel global es, tal vez, uno de los aportes más básicos y fundamentales que la disciplina de las relaciones internacionales puede brindar a las ciencias sociales en general. Si, por ejemplo, observamos las implicancias de llevar diversos campos de estudio, como el derecho, la economía, o incluso la ciencia política misma al plano internacional, se vuelve evidente que muchos de los preceptos básicos de cada uno de ellos pierden rápidamente su aplicabilidad en el escenario internacional. En palabras de Kenneth Waltz, el cambio de "principio ordenador", o el paso de un orden basado en un gobierno a uno basado en la ausencia del mismo, hace a la especificidad de la disciplina de relaciones internacionales como un campo propio de estudio.Por ejemplo, en el caso del derecho internacional, donde no existe un gobierno central, las normas y los contratos no cuentan con un órgano internacional imbuido de una verdadera capacidad de "hacer cumplir" tales acuerdos (sobre todo, si para ello se requiere del uso de la fuerza). En definitiva, si bien los estados pueden conformar una "sociedad internacional" en anarquía, desarrollando valores, objetivos y hasta incluso identidades comunes, la deficiencia estructural dada por la ausencia de un "poder ejecutivo" y de un "poder judicial" a nivel global, deja a todo emprendimiento de derecho internacional en manos de la voluntad de cada uno de los estados para cumplir o no con tales compromisos. En otras palabras, si un estado decide no formar parte de un tratado internacional, los efectos legales de éste, simplemente no pueden ser aplicados para juzgar el comportamiento de dicho estado o de sus ciudadanos.Lo mismo ocurre con la economía internacional, en donde la ausencia de un "ministerio internacional de economía" que regule el mercado mundial hace que la única forma de poder avanzar efectivamente en acuerdos internacionales de comercio sea a través del consenso y de largas y tediosas rondas de negociación dentro de foros internacionales, como la OMC., que muchas veces va incluso en detrimento de muchos de los estados interesados en temas específicos, como por ejemplo los países productores agrícolas necesitados de superar su condición de sub-desarrollo.Por último, pero no por ello menos importante, la ausencia de un gobierno mundial capaz de respaldar, en casos extremos, con acciones coercitivas los acuerdos y las normas internacionales que los estados establecen voluntariamente entre sí (no sin cierta dificultad), así como de castigar a quienes desafíen el orden establecido, hace que todas las soluciones que la humanidad ha elaborado en el pasado para resolver problemas similares a nivel nacional o interno, cuando intentan ser aplicados o extrapolados al plano internacional deban ser profundamente re-evaluadas, re-pensadas, y re-diseñadas. Ello se debe, en gran medida, a que al no existir un sheriff internacional, las relaciones internacionales descansan (aquí también) en la voluntad y capacidad de cada uno de los actores internacionales de cumplir con sus compromisos y/o de sobrellevar los costos de sus decisiones a nivel mundial. Algunos de las catástrofes más grandes de la historia de la humanidad, como por ejemplo la primera y segunda guerras mundiales, no sólo no pudieron ser evitadas sino que hasta incluso fueron, en cierto sentido, incentivadas indirectamente por haber implementado aparentes soluciones políticas que no se apoyaron en la comprensión de los límites que la anarquía internacional ejercía sobre los proyectos idealistas de principios de siglo, que buscaban aplicar en el mundo de los estados las mismas recetas aplicadas a la vida doméstica. * * *En suma, entonces, tal vez lo más fascinante de estudiar los asuntos internacionales en su expresión abstracta es que éstos poseen un elemento que es único y distintivo: que toda actividad política en el plano internacional ocurre en ausencia de un poder central capaz de dirimir qué es "lo justo" y qué no lo es, y de aplicar un uso coercitivo de la fuerza en pos de ello cuando sea necesario. Esta falta de un "gobierno mundial", aunque algo simple y básico de entender, es una característica fundamental para comprender la naturaleza y, sobre todo, los límites y alcance de las relaciones internacionales, pero que usualmente es dado por sobre-entendido u olvidado por completo.En esta disciplina, que se apoya en todas las demás áreas de las ciencias sociales pero que las lleva al plano internacional y las hace propias, existen paradójicamente bastante pocos enfoques teóricos que tomen como punto de partida el carácter anárquico de su propio campo de estudio y de acción. Uno de los enfoques que mejor y más sólidamente sí lo ha hecho, es el neorrealismo. Éste, en tanto constituye una teoría estructural o sistémica, parte del estudio del contexto en donde los estados actúan y desarrollan su accionar. Con ello, también, el neorrealismo es una teoría que se centra en los factores perdurables, estáticos y recurrentes de las relaciones internacionales, ya que éstos permiten desentrañar mejor cuáles son los límites y los alcances del accionar presente y futuro de los estados. El neorrealismo, a diferencia de otros enfoques de orden doméstico o focalizados más bien en factores dinámicos, constituye el camino correcto y más prometedor para comenzar a estudiar el mundo de las relaciones internacionales.En los últimos tiempos, nos hemos mal acostumbrado a "hacer teoría" por medio del ataque a los paradigmas y enfoques más tradicionales de la disciplina, como el neorrealismo. Sin embargo, todas las alternativas propuestas han pecado de un excesivo optimismo y de un hubris intelectual, en parte por abandonar las enseñanzas básicas del neorrealismo con respecto a los límites y alcances que nos impone la anarquía internacional a las aspiraciones ilimitadas del ser humano, y en parte también por una búsqueda (liderada por la necesidad) de encontrar nuevos esquemas analíticos que nos permitan dar mejores explicaciones a los nuevos fenómenos que siempre emergen en la escena internacional.No obstante, el camino más prometedor a seguir ya no puede seguir pasando por la búsqueda de la abolición de la teoría más importante de la disciplina. Se hace cada vez más necesario ayudar al neorrealismo a refinar y ampliar su poder explicativo, aunque sin olvidar sus preceptos básicos, en vez de seguir combatiéndolo ciegamente. Es cierto que se ha perdido bastante el rumbo, pero siempre es posible volver a retomarlo. Si por medio del estudio, respeto y reconocimiento de la "anarquía internacional", algo nos enseña la disciplina de las relaciones internacionales, ello es que tal vez la lección más importante consiste en reconocer que existen límites al poder y ambición humanos, y que estos mismos límites no provienen de nosotros sino del contexto en el cual tiene lugar la política; que no todo a nuestro alrededor es moldeable y que existen fuerzas en el mundo a las cuales incluso los más poderosos deben ajustarse. La popular idea de que "la anarquía es lo que los estados hacen de ella" es un síntoma de hubris intelectual que debe ser profundamente re-pensado a la luz de un enfoque más humilde y limitado de qué significa hacer teoría en las relaciones internacionales.Textos sugeridos:Raymond Aron, "The Anarchical Order of Power", Daedalus, Vol. 95, No. 2 (Spring, 1966), pp. 479-502.http://www.jstor.org/pss/20026981Martin Wight, Power Politics, ed. por Hedley Bull y Carsten Holbraad, (New York: Holmes & Meier Publishers, RIIA), especialmente cap. 9.http://www.amazon.com/Power-Politics-Martin-Wight/dp/0826461743/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1258492062&sr=1-2Helen Milner, "The Assumption of Anarchy in International Relations Theory: A Critique", Review of International Studies, Vol. 17, No. 1 (January 1991), pp. 67-85.http://www.jstor.org/stable/20097244Alexander Wendt, "Anarchy is What States Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics", International Organization, Vol. 46, No. 2 (Spring 1992), pp. 391-425.http://web.pdx.edu/~kinsella/ps442/wendt.pdfHobbes, Thomas; Leviathan. Or the Matter, Forme & Power of a Commonwealth, Ecclesiasticall and Civill, ed. por A. R. Waller (London: Cambridge University Press, [1651] 1904).Stephen Van Evera, "The Hard Realities of International Politics", Boston Review, Vol. 17, No. 6 (November–December 1992), p. 19.John J. Mearsheimer, Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 2001), especialmente cap. 1.http://www.amazon.com/Tragedy-Great-Power-Politics/dp/039332396XJean-Jacques Rousseau, "The State of War", en: A Lasting Peace and the State of War, trad. por Charles E. Vaughan (London: Constable and Company Limited, 1917).http://files.libertyfund.org/files/1010/0147_Bk.pdfMarc Trachtenberg, "The Problem of International Order and How to Think About It", The Monist, Vol. 89, No. 2, pp. 207-31.http://www.polisci.ucla.edu/faculty/trachtenberg/cv/monist.pdfMarc Trachtenberg, "The Question of Realism: An Historian's View", Security Studies, Vol. 13, No. 1 (Autumn 2003), pp. 156-94.http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/1258358578-3061436/content~db=all~content=a714005360Arnold Wolfers, Discord and Collaboration: Essays in International Politics(Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1962), especialmente cap. 1.http://www.amazon.com/Discord-Collaboration-Essays-International-Politics/dp/0801806917/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1258492722&sr=1-1Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, ma: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979).http://www.amazon.com/Theory-International-Politics-Kenneth-Waltz/dp/0075548526/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1258492750&sr=1-1 *Candidato a la Maestría en Estudios Internacionales, Universidad Torcuato di TellaBuenos Aires, Argentina
O actual sistema partidário português é herdeiro directo da Revolução de Abril de 1974, que instituiu a Segunda República, mas as suas raízes remontam à organização política da resistência ao regime anterior, uma ditadura que se proclamou como Estado Novo, e que durou entre 1926 e 1974. Dos cinco partidos com representação na Assembleia da República – o Parlamento português – quatro deles foram criados antes da revolução ou nos meses que se seguiram a Abril de 1974. Apenas um deles pode ser considerado como outsider num sistema partidário consolidado, surgindo no final da década de 1990, a partir da fusão de pequenos partidos, e mais como movimento do que como partido tradicional.O actual Partido Comunista (PCP), presente na Assembleia da República, foi fundado em 1921, durante a vigência da Primeira República (1910-1926) – e ainda antes do golpe de estado que deu origem ao Estado Novo, tornando-se na principal organização de resistência à ditadura até à década de 1970. O Partido Socialista (PS), na sua forma actual, foi fundado em 1973, na República Federal da Alemanha, apoiado directamente pelos alemães do SPD e fundado na tradição social-democrata europeia. O actual Partido Social-Democrata (PSD) foi fundado já depois da Revolução, em Maio de 1974, com o nome de Partido Popular Democrata (PPD). A inclinação esquerdista da Revolução e, por conseguinte, a necessidade de reclamar uma parte na herança da luta contra a ditadura de direita fez com que a dimensão social da política surgisse nos programas de todos os partidos. Assim, rapidamente o PPD se tornou PPD-PSD. O Centro Democrático e Social (CDS) foi fundado em Julho de 1974, centrado na tradição democrata-cristã, mas o estatuto abria tanto ao centro-esquerda como ao centro-direita, reflectindo a dificuldade do aparecimento de partidos de direita no Portugal pós-1974. A partir do fim da década de 1990, o CDS deixou definitivamente a pretensão de ser um partido de charneira e assumiu a sua vocação de direita, juntando à sigla CDS a fórmula Partido Popular e surgindo, a partir de então, como CDS-PP. Finalmente, o Bloco de Esquerda (BE) surge em 1999 da aglutinação de pequenos partidos da esquerda revolucionária e com mínima expressão, entre eles a UDP (marxistas), o PSR (trotskistas) e a Política XXI (pós-comunistas). A estes, foram-se juntando cidadãos sem filiação partidária anterior e outros movimentos de opinião, designadamente sindicalistas, católicos, ambientalistas e LGBT. Os três partidos fundadores do BE extinguiram-se entretanto e transformaram-se legalmente em associações de reflexão política. O BE consegue eleger os seus primeiros dois deputados à Assembleia da República nas eleições legislativas de 1999 e o seu primeiro deputado europeu nas eleições de 2004, efectuando assim uma transformação do sistema partidário e dos equilíbrios políticos no Parlamento. Até 1987, a formação e a estabilidade dos governos em Portugal estiveram muito condicionadas pela dificuldade de obtenção de claras maiorias parlamentares e pelo exercício de poder significativo por parte do Presidente da República. É preciso compreender que o sistema político português não é parlamentarista puro; é antes considerado semi-parlamentar, ainda que uma série de revisões constitucionais efectuadas nas décadas de 1980 e 1990 tenha recortado em muito a margem de manobra do Presidente. O sistema eleitoral proporcional, apurado através do método de Hondt e baseado em círculos eleitorais regionais que correspondem aos distritos administrativos, sempre tornou difícil a obtenção de uma maioria absoluta no Parlamento. Nos primeiros anos após a Revolução, a fragmentação do sistema partidário e a dispersão dos votos exigiu a formação de governos de iniciativa presidencial, liderados por personalidades de prestígio e da confiança do Presidente da República mas gozando de fraco apoio parlamentar. Posteriormente e até 1987, PS e PSD revezaram-se na constituição de governos minoritários ou de coligação com o CDS, e por uma vez governaram juntos (1983-1985) naquilo que ficou conhecido como governo de bloco central. Em 1987, o PSD obteve a primeira maioria absoluta que revalidou nas eleições legislativas de 1991. Em 1995 e em 1999, o PS ganhou as eleições com maioria simples mas com um número de deputados no Parlamento muito próximo da maioria absoluta, o que lhe permitiu governar com estabilidade e levar até ao fim a primeira das duas legislaturas. Para isso, o governo de António Guterres estabeleceu acordos de incidência restrita com alguns deputados do PSD e do CDS, do arquipélago da Madeira e do Minho, respectivamente, com o objectivo de ver aprovados os orçamentos anuais apresentados. A nova década assistiu a uma nova inversão da tendência – constituição de maiorias absolutas que duram toda a legislatura – com a demissão de António Guterres de chefe do governo e de Secretário-Geral do PS, no seguimento da hecatombe do partido nas eleições municipais de Dezembro de 2001. Os resultados das eleições legislativas antecipadas (2002), paras as quais o PS teve de eleger, a toda a pressa, um novo Secretário-Geral, fizeram reeditar a coligação governativa dos anos 1980 entre PSD, o partido mais votado, e o CDS. O governo foi encabeçado por Durão Barroso, presidente do PSD, quem passados dois anos (2004) o haveria de abandonar para ocupar o lugar de Presidente da Comissão Europeia. Esta ocasião trouxe de novo o papel, e os poderes, do Presidente da República ao centro do sistema político português, uma vez que a solução para a saída de Durão Barroso teria que contar com o seu aval político. Dissolução da câmara e convocação de novas eleições, governo de iniciativa presidencial com a mesma maioria parlamentar ou substituição do Primeiro-Ministro cessante pelo novo líder do PSD e constituição de um novo governo, a solução passou pela decisão política do Presidente Jorge Sampaio. Entre as várias opções, este decidiu-se por dar posse a um novo governo encabeçado por Santana Lopes, o novo líder do PSD. Pese embora tenha empossado o novo governo do PSD sem recurso a eleições antecipadas, Jorge Sampaio prometeu manter a acção do novo governo debaixo de atenção especial. Na sequência de uma série de incidentes que envolveram a quebra da confiança política no seio do governo de Santana Lopes e pressões sobre a televisão pública por parte do ministro da tutela, o Presidente Jorge Sampaio resolveu utilizar o poder mais extremo que lhe é conferido pela Constituição, apelidado de bomba atómica, dissolvendo a Assembleia da República e convocando eleições legislativas antecipadas (2005). Nelas, Santana Lopes pelo PSD defrontou José Sócrates, pelo PS, e o resultado do confronto agravou a deriva do sistema político português, já evidenciada desde finais dos anos 1980 com os governos de Cavaco Silva, para uma espécie de presidencialismo do Primeiro-Ministro. A vitória do PS nas legislativas de 2005 significou o regresso aos governos que contam com apoio parlamentar absoluto, o que reforçou inevitavelmente o perfil e a intervenção do chefe do governo como actor fulcral e decisivo da governação e deixou para segundo plano a necessidade de encontrar compromissos com as oposições. Entre 2005 e 2009, José Sócrates fez questão de aparecer como o campeão da reforma e modernização do Estado, sem compromissos com os sectores sociais afectados nem com os interesses instalados. A maioria parlamentar absoluta não evitou, porém, a erosão da sua imagem junto da opinião pública e os efeitos da crise global sobre o desemprego acabaram por o obrigar a recuar, na saúde e no ensino, designadamente, para tentar salvar a reeleição em 2009. O confronto com as populações, a propósito da reforma do sistema de saúde, e com os professores do ensino secundário, a propósito da implementação de um regime de avaliação, passaram factura e em muito contribuíram para a perda da maioria absoluta nas recentes eleições legislativas. O corrente ano de 2009 foi ano de triplo escrutínio para os partidos políticos e, mais directa ou indirectamente, para o próprio governo. Em Junho celebraram-se as eleições para o Parlamento Europeu, em Setembro as eleições legislativas e, no passado Domingo, as eleições municipais – ou autárquicas, como se lhes chama em Portugal. Em fim de legislatura, todos as eleições assumem, de uma forma ou outra, o carácter de escrutínio sobre a actividade governativa, se bem que ao fim de 35 anos de democracia, o eleitorado português tenha já demonstrado maturidade suficiente para separar os actos eleitorais e o que está em jogo em cada um deles. Apesar de tudo, as eleições europeias continuam a ser as que gozam de menor prestígio junto dos eleitores, e com isto quero dizer que assim se justifica a maior taxa de abstenção – o voto não é obrigatório em Portugal – e a sua utilização estratégica como instrumento de avaliação do governo. É o momento político, por exemplo, que o eleitorado costuma aproveitar para mostrar um 'cartão amarelo' ao governo, ou seja, para o advertir do descontentamento provocado pelas opções da governação. O mesmo aconteceu este ano. O descontentamento face a algumas opções do governo PS teve expressão na derrota eleitoral nas eleições europeias. No contexto de uma abstenção recorde – 63% – o PSD venceu, tendo à sua frente a primeira líder mulher da sua história – Manuela Ferreira Leite – e obteve 32% dos votos, ou seja, 8 mandatos no Parlamento Europeu. O PS foi sancionado e obteve apenas 26% dos votos e 7 mandatos. O BE obteve 3 mandatos relativos a quase 11% dos votos, a coligação entre comunistas e verdes (CDU) obteve 2 mandatos com 10,5%, enquanto o CDS-PP obteve outros 2 mandatos com 8% dos votos. Dito isto, PSD e CDS-PP fazem parte do Partido Popular Europeu (EPP), o PS está filiado no novo grupo da Aliança Progressista de Socialistas e Democratas (S&D), enquanto o BE, os comunistas e os verdes integram o grupo confederal da Esquerda Unitária Europeia e Esquerda Nórdica Verde. A campanha para as eleições legislativas decorreu num ambiente tenso. O PSD, motivado pelos resultados das europeias e pelas sondagens que encurtavam a distância para o PS, contestou as grandes obras públicas que são a bandeira do governo – novo aeroporto e comboio de alta velocidade – com base no elevado endividamento público do país e apresentou um plano alternativo para reanimar a economia, assente no apoio adicional às pequenas e médias empresas como criadoras de riqueza e emprego. O PS, para além das grandes obras públicas, apresentou-se como o campeão do estado social de bem-estar e procurou colar o PSD, e a sua líder em especial, às políticas neoliberais e ao conservadorismo dos costumes. A estratégia deu resultado, uma vez que a vantagem das eleições europeias foi anulada e o PS alcançou a vitória. Contudo, o confronto com diferentes sectores sociais, e em especial com os professores, bem como o aumento acentuado do desemprego (9%) nos últimos meses deitaram a perder a maioria absoluta. Num parlamento com 230 deputados, o PS obteve 36,5% dos votos e 97 mandatos (perdeu a maioria e 24 mandatos face a 2005), enquanto o PSD obteve 29% dos votos e 81 mandatos (ganhou menos de 1% de votos mas 6 mandatos face a 2005). Nas franjas do grande centro político, todos os partidos representados na Assembleia da República viram a sua representação aumentar. O CDS-PP recuperou o terceiro lugar com 10,4% dos votos e 21 mandatos, o BE obteve 9,8% dos votos e 16 mandatos, enquanto a coligação entre comunistas e verdes (CDU) obteve 7,9% dos votos e 15 mandatos. Por fim, no último Domingo foi dia de eleições municipais. O PSD era e continuou a ser o partido mais representado nas autarquias locais, num país que conta com 308 municípios. Contudo, perdeu um número significativo (21), e com a liderança em 140 municípios (em alguns, em coligação com o CDS-PP) viu o PS chegar-lhe perto. O PS passou dos 110 municípios que dirigia desde 2005 aos 131 que venceu no Domingo, e o seu Secretário-Geral proclamou-se vencedor das eleições autárquicas por ter obtido um número superior de votos (37,6% face aos 32,7% dos PSD). É verdade que as eleições autárquicas têm as suas lógicas bem locais, pouco contaminadas pelas lógicas nacionais, mas a verdade é que a liderança de Manuela Ferreira Leite se encontra ainda mais debilitada e está já aberto o processo de sucessão no seio do PSD. Quanto às outras forças políticas, o PCP mantém a implantação local de que dispões no sul de Portugal, ainda que tenha perdido alguns municípios para o PS e para listas de cidadãos independentes que, de acordo com a lei eleitoral em vigor, podem concorrer ao governo dos municípios. O CDS-PP mantém-se na liderança do único município que detinha desde 2005, o mesmo acontecendo com o BE, testemunhando estes resultados a dificuldade que têm os pequenos partidos de reforçarem a sua influência municipal. Ao nível do poder local, a grande revolução está marcada para 2013, data em que metade dos presidentes de município não poderá voltar a candidatar-se em virtude da lei em vigor que limita o exercício da liderança local (assim como de outros cargos políticos) a três mandatos, evitando o fenómeno negativo da perpetuação no poder.Após os três actos eleitorais, o Presidente da República indigitou já José Sócrates do PS para presidir a um novo governo. As alternativas dividem-se entre a procura de um parceiro de coligação e o governo minoritário do PS. Com a recusa de Manuela Ferreira Leite, hoje quarta-feira, do convite formal endereçado por José Sócrates para que o PSD participe no novo governo, a alternativa parece ser a do governo minoritário que negoceia, lei a lei, o apoio no Parlamento. Isto porque as possibilidades de acordo global com CDS-PP, BE ou PCP se mostram irrealistas, tão distantes as suas bases programáticas relativamente ao PS e tão confrontados os seus líderes face a José Sócrates.*Doctor en Relaciones Internacionales. Profesor del Instituto de Ciencias Sociales y Políticas, Universidad Técnica de Lisboa. Profesor Invitado del Instituto de Estudios Políticos, Universidad Católica Portuguesa.
[eng] Research involving human subjects must be performed with standards that promote protection of their rights. Several codes were developed and all are unanimous in the following ethic principles: respect for persons, beneficence and justice. The fulfilment of these principles will assure that the dignity, rights, safety and well-being of the participants in a biomedical research are guaranteed.The need of a special protection to those with diminished autonomy is a common requirement to all codes. Pregnant women are defined as a vulnerable population because of the potential risk of harm of the foetus. Apart from the foetal risk, pregnant women in developing countries have additional potential for vulnerability, as in most of the cases they are economically or/and educationally disadvantaged individuals. Their generally low level of education may put them in a difficult situation to fully understand consent forms and the risk-benefit assessment provided by the researchers.In recent years, the evidence-based medicine has been an important international goal. Mechanisms to support the use of research-based evidence in developing health policy are being promoted. The research must be sensitive to the potential for vulnerability when designing evidence-based trials and they have to assure that the vulnerable population is being protected.With the intention to protect the vulnerable population, some groups such as pregnant women have being traditionally excluded from clinical trials. As a result of this exclusion, pregnant women are being exposed to medicines in situations where no evidence-based information is available on efficacy and safety. They are deprived of the benefits of treatment in order to be protected themselves and their offspring from an unknown risk. Although is very clear that protection of a vulnerable population, particularly the pregnant women, is mandatory in the design of any trial, the challenges of the implementation of this principle should be taken into account in order to not increase the gap between the introduction of a pharmaceutical product in the market and the availability of safety information for its use in pregnancy.In developing countries maternal mortality is an important public health problem. Most maternal deaths occur in the poorest countries particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Mozambique the rate could be between 408-1000 per 100 000 live births according to the source of information. Several studies have addressed different causes of maternal mortality in Africa, eclampsia and malaria being part of the five most reported.There is strong evidence of the effectiveness of magnesium sulphate (MGSO4) in women with pre-eclampsia and eclampsia but the drug is not available in some countries. The example of MgSO4 has being used to describe failure in translating results of research into policy and/or practice.For malaria treatment few drugs were considered effective and safe for use during pregnancy including chloroquine, sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine and quinine. The information on safety comes from a long experience of use. The emergency of resistance of P. falciparum to these drugs is limiting its use in most of endemic areas. The artemisinin derivatives are being strongly recommended to be used in combination with other antimalarial drugs. Preclinical studies have consistently shown that artemisinin and its derivatives are embryolethal and teratogenic in animals. Current available information is not adequate to extrapolate the results in animals to humans.Limited data on the safety profile of antimalarial drugs during pregnancy is a challenge. Nowadays these drugs are used in pregnant women based on retrospective cumulative risk-benefit assessment. Mechanisms of prospectively monitoring the drugs use are required to protect pregnant women from the potential risk.The aim of this thesis is to describe the (un)availability of drugs and their reasons, as well as, the (un)availability of safety information on drugs needed to be used during pregnancy in Southern Africa, and to propose mechanisms to effectively monitor drug safety in pregnancy in developing countries.In order to achieve this objective four studies were performed. In the first study a qualitative case-study based on interviews and bibliographic review was performed in Mozambique and Zimbabwe. Factors affecting the (un)availability of MgSO4 were assessed. This study showed that research evidence regarding the effectiveness of MgSO4 for the treatment of eclampsia and pre-eclampsia, was widely known in the study countries. However, the registration, approval, acquisition and distribution of MgSO4, and hence its availability to clinicians, was affected by market and systems failures. With this study we concluded that the low cost of magnesium sulphate, as well as the mechanisms through which it is procured, means that market forces alone cannot be relied upon to ensure its availability. Governments and international organizations must be prepared to intervene to ensure the wide availability of low cost, effective drugs critical to improving public health in Africa.The second and the third studies shown that antimalarial drugs are being used in pregnant women even without information on its safety profile in this particular group. Robust safety monitoring systems are clearly needed in developing countries to accompany the deployment of new drugs, especially those with a potential teratogenic risk.The fourth study showed that spontaneous reporting system may be a tool for drug safety monitoring. This system could be used to increase health care providers' and patients' awareness of possible ADRs, and to develop a culture to report these reactions. Spontaneous reporting and pregnancy registries were presented as examples of mechanisms that could and should be in place.Recommendations on how these systems could be effectively implemented in resource constrained countries were also presented.All these studies suggest that the definition of vulnerability of pregnant women in developing countries should not be restricted to the potential risk of harm of the foetus (harm-based definition) or to the difficulty of fully understanding consent forms (consent-based definitions). Women are also vulnerable because of the high risk of dying from any cause related to or aggravated by the pregnancy. The implementation of these ethic principles need to take into account the urgent need to implement effective and safe drugs targeted to reduce the burden of maternal morbidity and mortality. ; [spa] La investigación relativa a los seres humanos debe realizarse dentro de unos estándares que promuevan la protección de sus derechos. Varios códigos han sido desarrollados y todos ellos coinciden unánimemente en los siguientes principios éticos: el respeto por las personas, la beneficencia y la justicia. La realización de estos principios debe asegurar la dignidad, los derechos, la seguridad y el bienestar de los participantes en una investigación biomédica sean preservados.La necesidad de una protección especial hacia aquellos seres cuya autonomía sea limitada es un requerimiento común para todos los códigos. Las mujeres embarazadas están definidas como un grupo de población vulnerable dado el riesgo potencial de causar daño al feto. Además del riesgo para el feto, las mujeres embarazadas en los países en desarrollo son potencialmente más vulnerables, y suelen contar con desventajas a nivel económico y/o educativo. Su nivel de educación, por lo general bajo, les pone en una situación difícil, dificultando la comprensión de los formularios de consentimiento y la evaluación del riesgo-beneficio que prestan los investigadores.En los últimos años, la medicina basada en la evidencia ha sido una meta muy importante a nivel internacional. Se están promoviendo mecanismos para respaldar el uso de la evidencia científica para la definición de política de desarrollo de la salud. La investigación debe ser sensible a la vulnerabilidad potencial cuando se diseñan ensayos basados en la evidencia. Además, se debe asegurar que la población vulnerable esté siendo protegida.Con la intención de proteger a esa población vulnerable, algunos grupos como los de mujeres embarazadas han sido tradicionalmente excluidos de los ensayos clínicos. Como resultado de esta exención, algunas mujeres embarazadas están siendo expuestas a medicamentos de los que no hay información basada en la evidencia en cuanto a su eficacia y seguridad. Este hecho las priva de los beneficios del tratamiento que debería protegerlas, a ellas y sus hijos, de un riesgo desconocido. Aunque está muy claro que proteger a una población vulnerable, particularmente a las mujeres embarazadas, es obligatorio en el diseño de un ensayo clínico, los retos de la implementación de este principio no deberían aumentar el vacío entre la introducción de un producto farmacéutico en el mercado y la disponibilidad de información sobre su seguridad para uso en el embarazo.En los países en vías de desarrollo la mortalidad materna es un problema importante de salud pública. La mayoría de muertes maternas ocurren en los países más pobres, particularmente en África Subsahariana. En Mozambique el índice puede ser entre 408-1000 por 100000 nacidos vivos, dependiendo de la fuente de información. Diferentes estudios han señalado diversas causas de mortalidad materna en África, encontrándose la eclampsia y la malaria entre las cinco primeras.Existe una gran evidencia de la eficacia del sulfato de magnesio (MGSO4) en mujeres con pre-eclampsia y eclampsia, sin embargo el fármaco no está disponible en algunos países. El ejemplo del sulfato de magnesio se ha utilizado para describir el fracaso en el traslado de los resultados de la investigación a la práctica y/o política.Para el tratamiento de la malaria, se consideró seguro el uso durante el embarazo de algunos fármacos incluyendo cloroquina, sulfadoxinapirimetamina y quinina. La información sobre seguridad responde a una gran experiencia de uso. El aumento de resistencia de P. falciparum a estos fármacos está limitando su uso en la mayoría de las zonas endémicas. Actualmente se está recomendando el uso de los derivados de la artemisinina en combinación con otros fármacos antimaláricos. Los estudios preclínicos han mostrado sistemáticamente que la artemisina y sus derivados son embrioletales y teratogénicos en animales. La información disponible hasta la fecha no es adecuada para extrapolar los resultados de los animales a los humanos.Los datos limitados en el perfil de seguridad de los fármacos antimaláricos durante el embarazo constituyen un desafío. Hoy en día, estos fármacos se usan en mujeres embarazadas basándose en una valoración retrospectiva acumulativa de riesgo-beneficio. Se necesitarían mecanismos de monitorización prospectiva del uso de los fármacos para proteger a las mujeres de su riesgo potencial.El objetivo de esta tesis es el de describir la disponibilidad o no disponibilidad de los fármacos y sus razones; describir la disponibilidad o no disponibilidad de información sobre la seguridad de estos fármacos que son de uso necesario en el sureste de África. Se pretende también proponer mecanismos efectivos para monitorizar la seguridad de los fármacos en el embarazo en los países en desarrollo.Para alcanzar estos objetivos se llevaron a cabo cuatro estudios. El primero consistía en un estudio cualitativo de casos basados en entrevistas y en una revisión bibliográfica en Mozambique y Zimbawe. Se evaluaron los factores que afectaban a la disponibilidad o no disponibilidad del sulfato de magnesio. El estudio mostró que la evidencia científica respecto a la eficacia del sulfato de magnesio para el tratamiento de la eclampsia y la pre-eclampsia fue ampliamente conocida en los países del estudio. Sin embargo, el registro, aprobación, adquisición y distribución del sulfato de magnesio y como consecuencia, su disponibilidad para los médicos se vio afectada por fallos de mercado y de sistema. Este estudio concluye que el bajo coste del sulfato de magnesio, así como el mecanismo a través del cual se obtiene, significa que las fuerzas del mercado por si solas no pueden asegurar su disponibilidad. Los gobiernos y las organizaciones internacionales deben estar preparados para intervenir y para asegurar una amplia disponibilidad de fármacos efectivos de bajo coste, críticos para mejorar la salud pública en África.El segundo y tercer estudio mostraron que los fármacos antimaláricos se están usando en mujeres embarazadas sin contar con información sobre su perfil de seguridad en este grupo particular. Se necesita claramente una monitorización fuerte y segura en los países en vías de desarrollo para acompañar el despliegue de los nuevos fármacos, especialmente aquellos que conllevan un potencial riesgo teratogénico.El cuarto estudio mostró que el sistema de notificación espontánea puede ser una herramienta para la monitorización de la seguridad de los fármacos. Este sistema se podrá usar para incrementar la consciencia en proveedores de salud y en enfermos sobre las posibles reacciones adversas de fármacos. Ello permitirá desarrollar una cultura de notificación de estas reacciones. La notificación espontánea y los registros de embarazo se presentaron como ejemplos de mecanismos que podrían y deberían ser implementados. Las recomendaciones de cómo estos sistemas podrían ser implementados de forma efectiva en países con recursos limitados también fueron presentadas.Todos estos estudios sugieren que la definición de vulnerabilidad de las mujeres embarazas en los países en desarrollo no se puede restringir a causa del riesgo potencial de daño al feto, o debido a la dificultad de entender por completo los formularios de consentimiento. También son vulnerables por el riesgo elevado de morir por alguna causa relacionada o agravada por el embarazo. La implementación de estos principios éticos necesita tener en cuenta la necesidad de implementar fármacos diana efectivos y seguros para reducir la mortalidad y morbilidad materna.
2006/2007 ; This thesis deals with multimedia communication over unreliable and resource constrained IP-based packet-switched networks. The focus is on estimating, evaluating and enhancing the quality of streaming media services with particular regard to video services. The original contributions of this study involve mainly the development of three video distortion estimation techniques and the successive definition of some application scenarios used to demonstrate the benefits obtained applying such algorithms. The material presented in this dissertation is the result of the studies performed within the Telecommunication Group of the Department of Electronic Engineering at the University of Trieste during the course of Doctorate in Information Engineering. In recent years multimedia communication over wired and wireless packet based networks is exploding. Applications such as BitTorrent, music file sharing, multimedia podcasting are the main source of all traffic on the Internet. Internet radio for example is now evolving into peer to peer television such as CoolStreaming. Moreover, web sites such as YouTube have made publishing videos on demand available to anyone owning a home video camera. Another challenge in the multimedia evolution is inside the house where videos are distributed over local WiFi networks to many end devices around the house. More in general we are assisting an all media over IP revolution, with radio, television, telephony and stored media all being delivered over IP wired and wireless networks. All the presented applications require an extreme high bandwidth and often a low delay especially for interactive applications. Unfortunately the Internet and the wireless networks provide only limited support for multimedia applications. Variations in network conditions can have considerable consequences for real-time multimedia applications and can lead to unsatisfactory user experience. In fact, multimedia applications are usually delay sensitive, bandwidth intense and loss tolerant applications. In order to overcame this limitations, efficient adaptation mechanism must be derived to bridge the application requirements with the transport medium characteristics. Several approaches have been proposed for the robust transmission of multimedia packets; they range from source coding solutions to the addition of redundancy with forward error correction and retransmissions. Additionally, other techniques are based on developing efficient QoS architectures at the network layer or at the data link layer where routers or specialized devices apply different forwarding behaviors to packets depending on the value of some field in the packet header. Using such network architecture, video packets are assigned to classes, in order to obtain a different treatment by the network; in particular, packets assigned to the most privileged class will be lost with a very small probability, while packets belonging to the lowest priority class will experience the traditional best–effort service. But the key problem in this solution is how to assign optimally video packets to the network classes. One way to perform the assignment is to proceed on a packet-by-packet basis, to exploit the highly non-uniform distortion impact of compressed video. Working on the distortion impact of each individual video packet has been shown in recent years to deliver better performance than relying on the average error sensitivity of each bitstream element. The distortion impact of a video packet can be expressed as the distortion that would be introduced at the receiver by its loss, taking into account the effects of both error concealment and error propagation due to temporal prediction. The estimation algorithms proposed in this dissertation are able to reproduce accurately the distortion envelope deriving from multiple losses on the network and the computational complexity required is negligible in respect to those proposed in literature. Several tests are run to validate the distortion estimation algorithms and to measure the influence of the main encoder-decoder settings. Different application scenarios are described and compared to demonstrate the benefits obtained using the developed algorithms. The packet distortion impact is inserted in each video packet and transmitted over the network where specialized agents manage the video packets using the distortion information. In particular, the internal structure of the agents is modified to allow video packets prioritization using primarily the distortion impact estimated by the transmitter. The results obtained will show that, in each scenario, a significant improvement may be obtained with respect to traditional transmission policies. The thesis is organized in two parts. The first provides the background material and represents the basics of the following arguments, while the other is dedicated to the original results obtained during the research activity. Referring to the first part in the first chapter it summarized an introduction to the principles and challenges for the multimedia transmission over packet networks. The most recent advances in video compression technologies are detailed in the second chapter, focusing in particular on aspects that involve the resilience to packet loss impairments. The third chapter deals with the main techniques adopted to protect the multimedia flow for mitigating the packet loss corruption due to channel failures. The fourth chapter introduces the more recent advances in network adaptive media transport detailing the techniques that prioritize the video packet flow. The fifth chapter makes a literature review of the existing distortion estimation techniques focusing mainly on their limitation aspects. The second part of the thesis describes the original results obtained in the modelling of the video distortion deriving from the transmission over an error prone network. In particular, the sixth chapter presents three new distortion estimation algorithms able to estimate the video quality and shows the results of some validation tests performed to measure the accuracy of the employed algorithms. The seventh chapter proposes different application scenarios where the developed algorithms may be used to enhance quickly the video quality at the end user side. Finally, the eight chapter summarizes the thesis contributions and remarks the most important conclusions. It also derives some directions for future improvements. The intent of the entire work presented hereafter is to develop some video distortion estimation algorithms able to predict the user quality deriving from the loss on the network as well as providing the results of some useful applications able to enhance the user experience during a video streaming session. ; Questa tesi di dottorato affronta il problema della trasmissione efficiente di contenuti multimediali su reti a pacchetto inaffidabili e con limitate risorse di banda. L'obiettivo è quello di ideare alcuni algoritmi in grado di predire l'andamento della qualità del video ricevuto da un utente e successivamente ideare alcune tecniche in grado di migliorare l'esperienza dell'utente finale nella fruizione dei servizi video. In particolare i contributi originali del presente lavoro riguardano lo sviluppo di algoritmi per la stima della distorsione e l'ideazione di alcuni scenari applicativi in molto frequenti dove poter valutare i benefici ottenibili applicando gli algoritmi di stima. I contributi presentati in questa tesi di dottorato sono il risultato degli studi compiuti con il gruppo di Telecomunicazioni del Dipartimento di Elettrotecnica Elettronica ed Informatica (DEEI) dell'Università degli Studi di Trieste durante il corso di dottorato in Ingegneria dell'Informazione. Negli ultimi anni la multimedialità, diffusa sulle reti cablate e wireless, sta diventando parte integrante del modo di utilizzare la rete diventando di fatto il fenomeno più imponente. Applicazioni come BitTorrent, la condivisione di file musicali e multimediali e il podcasting ad esempio costituiscono una parte significativa del traffico attuale su Internet. Quelle che negli ultimi anni erano le prime radio che trsmettevano sulla rete oggi si stanno evolvendo nei sistemi peer to peer per più avanzati per la diffusione della TV via web come CoolStreaming. Inoltre siti web come YouTube hanno costruito il loro business sulla memorizzazione/ distribuzione di video creati da chiunque abbia una semplice video camera. Un'altra caratteristica dell'imponente rivoluzione multimediale a cui stiamo assistendo è la diffusione dei video anche all'interno delle case dove i contenuti multimediali vengono distribuiti mediante delle reti wireless locali tra i vari dispositivi finali. Tutt'oggi è in corso una rivoluzione della multimedialità sulle reti IP con le radio, i televisioni, la telefonia e tutti i video che devono essere distribuiti sulle reti cablate e wireless verso utenti eterogenei. In generale la gran parte delle applicazioni multimediali richiedono una banda elevata e dei ritardi molto contenuti specialmente se le applicazioni sono di tipo interattivo. Sfortunatamente le reti wireless e Internet più in generale sono in grado di fornire un supporto limitato alle applicazioni multimediali. La variabilità di banda, di ritardo e nella perdita possono avere conseguenze gravi sulla qualità con cui viene ricevuto il video e questo può portare a una parziale insoddisfazione o addirittura alla rinuncia della fruizione da parte dell'utente finale. Le applicazioni multimediali sono spesso sensibili al ritardo e con requisiti di banda molto stringenti ma di fatto rimango tolleranti nei confronti delle perdite che possono avvenire durante la trasmissione. Al fine di superare le limitazioni è necessario sviluppare dei meccanismi di adattamento in grado di fare da ponte fra i requisiti delle applicazioni multimediali e le caratteristiche offerte dal livello di trasporto. Diversi approcci sono stati proposti in passato in letteratura per migliorare la trasmissione dei pacchetti riducendo le perdite; gli approcci variano dalle soluzioni di compressione efficiente all'aggiunta di ridondanza con tecniche di forward error correction e ritrasmissioni. Altre tecniche si basano sulla creazione di architetture di rete complesse in grado di garantire la QoS a livello rete dove router oppure altri agenti specializzati applicano diverse politiche di gestione del traffico in base ai valori contenuti nei campi dei pacchetti. Mediante queste architetture il traffico video viene marcato con delle classi di priorità al fine di creare una differenziazione nel traffico a livello rete; in particolare i pacchetti con i privilegi maggiori vengono assegnati alle classi di priorità più elevate e verranno persi con probabilità molto bassa mentre i pacchetti appartenenti alle classi di priorità inferiori saranno trattati alla stregua dei servizi di tipo best-effort. Uno dei principali problemi di questa soluzione riguarda come assegnare in maniera ottimale i singoli pacchetti video alle diverse classi di priorità. Un modo per effettuare questa classificazione è quello di procedere assegnando i pacchetti alle varie classi sulla base dell'importanza che ogni pacchetto ha sulla qualità finale. E' stato dimostrato in numerosi lavori recenti che utilizzando come meccanismo per l'adattamento l'impatto sulla distorsione finale, porta significativi miglioramenti rispetto alle tecniche che utilizzano come parametro la sensibilità media del flusso nei confronti delle perdite. L'impatto che ogni pacchetto ha sulla qualità può essere espresso come la distorsione che viene introdotta al ricevitore se il pacchetto viene perso tenendo in considerazione gli effetti del recupero (error concealment) e la propagazione dell'errore (error propagation) caratteristica dei più recenti codificatori video. Gli algoritmi di stima della distorsione proposti in questa tesi sono in grado di riprodurre in maniera accurata l'inviluppo della distorsione derivante sia da perdite isolate che da perdite multiple nella rete con una complessità computazionale minima se confrontata con le più recenti tecniche di stima. Numerose prove sono stati effettuate al fine di validare gli algoritmi di stima e misurare l'influenza dei principali parametri di codifica e di decodifica. Al fine di enfatizzare i benefici ottenuti applicando gli algoritmi di stima della distorsione, durante la tesi verranno presentati alcuni scenari applicativi dove l'applicazione degli algoritmi proposti migliora sensibilmente la qualità finale percepita dagli utenti. Tali scenari verranno descritti, implementati e accuratamente valutati. In particolare, la distorsione stimata dal trasmettitore verrà incapsulata nei pacchetti video e, trasmessa nella rete dove agenti specializzati potranno agevolmente estrarla e utilizzarla come meccanismo rate-distortion per privilegiare alcuni pacchetti a discapito di altri. In particolare la struttura interna di un agente (un router) verrà modificata al fine di consentire la differenziazione del traffico utilizzando l'informazione dell'impatto che ogni pacchetto ha sulla qualità finale. I risultati ottenuti anche in termini di ridotta complessità computazionale in ogni scenario applicativo proposto mettono in luce i benefici derivanti dall'implementazione degli algoritmi di stima. La presenti tesi di dottorato è strutturata in due parti principali; la prima fornisce il background e rappresenta la base per tutti gli argomenti trattati nel seguito mentre la seconda parte è dedicata ai contributi originali e ai risultati ottenuti durante l'intera attività di ricerca. In riferimento alla prima parte in particolare un'introduzione ai principi e alle opportunità offerte dalla diffusione dei servizi multimediali sulle reti a pacchetto viene esposta nel primo capitolo. I progressi più recenti nelle tecniche di compressione video vengono esposti dettagliatamente nel secondo capitolo che si focalizza in particolare solo sugli aspetti che riguardano le tecniche per la mitigazione delle perdite. Il terzo capitolo introduce le principali tecniche per proteggere i flussi multimediali e ridurre le perdite causate dai fenomeni caratteristici del canale. Il quarto capitolo descrive i recenti avanzamenti nelle tecniche di network adaptive media transport illustrando i principali metodi utilizzati per differenziare il traffico video. Il quinto capitolo analizza i principali contributi nella letteratura sulle tecniche di stima della distorsione e si focalizza in particolare sulle limitazioni dei metodi attuali. La seconda parte della tesi descrive i contributi originali ottenuti nella modellizzazione della distorsione video derivante dalla trasmissione sulle reti con perdite. In particolare il sesto capitolo presenta tre nuovi algoritmi in grado di riprodurre fedelmente l'inviluppo della distorsione video. I numerosi test e risultati verranno proposti al fine di validare gli algoritmi e misurare l'accuratezza nella stima. Il settimo capitolo propone diversi scenari applicativi dove gli algoritmi sviluppati possono essere utilizzati per migliorare in maniera significativa la qualità percepita dall'utente finale. Infine l'ottavo capitolo sintetizza l'intero lavoro svolto e i principali risultati ottenuti. Nello stesso capitolo vengono inoltre descritti gli sviluppi futuri dell'attività di ricerca. L'obiettivo dell'intero lavoro presentato è quello di mostrare i benefici derivanti dall'utilizzo di nuovi algoritmi per la stima della distorsione e di fornire alcuni scenari applicativi di utilizzo. ; XIX Ciclo ; 1978
Between 2001 and 2004, the OECD, the European Training Foundation, CEDEFOP and the World Bank carried out extensive reviews of career guidance, looking broadly at related policy and practice in both the labourmarket and the education sectors. In 2002, the European PES Network's Expert Group carried out a study on personalised services with a special focus on guidance and counselling, documenting examples of interesting practice in six Public Employment Services (PES). The present study, commissioned by DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities in October 2004 in collaboration with the Heads of PES Network, sets out to build on the accumulated knowledge of the previous reviews by drawing on the responses of 28 countries—the EU25 plus three EEA countries (Iceland, Norway and Switzerland)—to a questionnaire survey that was specifically developed to facilitate the identification and examination of the place of career guidance in the Public Employment Services across Europe. The survey data was complemented by country visits to Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Poland, Slovenia and Sweden, in order to provide a qualitative dimension to the study, and to enable a deeper examination of the issues that were foregrounded in the survey. The key purpose behind the study was to gauge the manner in which—and the extent to which—personalised employment and career guidance services in the European PES have responded to the widely-adopted goal of implementing a personal service approach, identifying the difficulties they have encountered and the innovative responses they have generated. The study is guided by a concern with the practical, i.e. it sets out to describe the day-to-day realities of work in the PES with a view to identifying some of the more promising and successful practices, and to make proposals for improvement. The report provides details of the various models of career guidance in use, the processes that are being implemented across the range of EU and EEA countries, the outcomes of PES interventions, the tools and instruments used to attain such outcomes, the level of staff preparation for delivering career guidance services, and the strategies that are in place in order to ensure quality provision. An understanding of the context in which the PES across Europe provide career guidance services is crucial. The study is therefore careful to locate the survey within the context of the European Employment Strategy (EES), and particularly the European Employment Guideline on prevention and activation. It also draws a link between the latter and the effort to modernise the PES across Europe through the widespread adoption of a personal service model, which gives pride of place to the client, and which strives to guarantee citizens' rights for quality, proximity, personalisation and individualisation of public services. The report further examines the potential of career guidance in contributing to the attainment of the Lisbon targets, particularly in relation to the priorities established by the EES to increase in the adaptability of workers, to attract more people to the labour market, and to increase quality investment in human capital. It is argued that career guidance and personalised employment services have the potential for making such a contribution by advancing lifelong learning goals, by helping to address a whole range of labour market issues, and by supporting efforts to attain social equity and social inclusion goals. While career guidance services are offered in a range of settings, and there is an overlap in the way that these services are understood in such settings, specific attention needs to be given to the way career guidance is defined within the overall mission of the PES. Here we can distinguish three main categories of activities: - The first are those activities that fall within the area of 'personalised employment services', and that have elements of career guidance embedded in them. Employment advisers register and interview clients, and in the process of doing so utilise several guidance-related skills, particularly where efforts are being made to personalise services through client segmentation. While the employment adviser's work at this level—in relation to the initial interview, personal action planning, and assistance in the job-search process through job-broking and other means—cover processes and tasks that are largely administrative, they can also have strong guidance elements embedded in them. The report acknowledges the tensions that arise in the mix and balance between administrative and guidance roles, stressing that both elements are critical in the consolidation of career guidance elements within services that have, as their primary objective, the placing of people in employment. - The second category of activities are specialised career guidance services. These are distinguished from the first category by their more intensive and more focused engagement with the client, on the basis of a deeper knowledge base and extended competence. It is noted that the two categories are increasingly becoming blurred, and that this carries with it both opportunities and challenges for career guidance in a PES context. - A third category of activities considers other career guidance provision that the PES may be involved in, including the production and/or dissemination of labour market information, as well as occupational information, and the provision of career guidance services to students. These three categories of activities need to be considered within the changes in the overall organisational context of the public employment services. One of the key trends that have an impact on the way personalised employment and career guidance services are delivered is responsibility-sharing. The study considers three key aspects in relation to this organisational trend. The first is the sharing of responsibility with regional and local employment offices through decentralisation. The second is the sharing of responsibility with partners through joint service delivery, or through outsourcing and contracting-out. In both cases, the different modalities by means of which the process can be organised are discussed in some detail, particularly with a view to identifying how they can improve—or jeopardise— quality career guidance provision. Indeed, a key challenge that the PES has to confront is to find the right balance between, on the one hand, encouraging innovative, flexible and context-sensitive responses in its decentralised mediation between clients and local labour markets, and on the other, maintaining standards across the whole range of providers, thus ensuring that citizens, irrespective of their geographical or social location, have guaranteed access to the same quality of service that they are equally entitled to. The issue of quality standards in the attempt to manage the decentralisation process is therefore pivotal, and constitutes the third aspect considered. The study highlights different approaches to quality assurance across the 28 European countries, pointing to some of the formative experiences in the use of both quantitative and qualitative strategies in this respect. The change in the organisational context, as well as the paradigmatic shift towards a 'personal service model', has given rise to a number of trends in the delivery of career guidance and career-guidance-related services within Europe's PES. One of the more important is the increase in the range and depth of services that contain career guidance elements. This increase in both supply and demand for services can lead to tensions resulting from the attempt to develop personalised approaches while at the same time catering for increasingly large numbers of unemployed in a differentiated manner. Such tensions are particularly accentuated in those contexts where human and material resources have either remained stable or even been decreased. Europe's PES have developed three key ways to manage these tensions. These include: a resort to partnership and to outsourcing; a shift to self-service modes of delivery; and the introduction of tiering, to provide career guidance in self-access modes and in groups to the majority of clients, reserving to the rest more intensive individual career guidance interviews if and when needed. Employment advisers and career guidance staff are at the crucible of most of the transformations taking place in the PES, and their training, competence levels and motivation have a great bearing on the quality and nature of services provided. The study considers PES staff involved in delivery of personalised employment and career guidance services from a variety of angles. First, attention is given to aspects of their profile, including age, gender and conditions of work. The focus then turns to the distribution of career guidance roles among PES staff, with distinctions being drawn between those systems that have specialised tiers of staff, and those that require their staff to be multi-functional. The implications that such role distributions have for the provision of specialised services on the one hand, and holistic services on the other, are also examined. A third major consideration in regard to staff is the profile required of career guidance and career-guidance-related personnel at the point of recruitment, as well as the opportunities that such staff have for pre-service, induction and continued training. While many systems do not provide initial training, and recruitment is often effected on the basis of proxy qualifications, there is a trend for improved induction and in-service professional development opportunities—linked, for example, to the range of tools and instruments that career-guidance-related staff use in delivering services. Details of the modalities for the provision of training are presented, as are examples of commendable practice from a variety of countries. Training gaps are also identified, many of which were signalled by respondents to the survey who felt that expanded roles required the targeting of specific competence development. In their attempt to modernise their delivery systems, Europe's PES have striven to reach out to a range of clients, giving special attention to those categories that have particularly acute needs for individualised and tailor-made support on the road to employment: these include the long-term unemployed, women returnees, persons with disability, the unqualified and low-skilled, company-closure clients, and customers with a variety of social problems and/or tenuous links to citizenship rights. The study provides details of the different career guidance models and strategies used to deliver services to such clients. It also considers the results of client-satisfaction surveys, which are being used by PES in several countries as an indicator of effectiveness. Despite major improvements in catering for differentiated needs, it is also clear that there are other categories of customers that the PES are finding more challenging to reach. In particular, rising unemployment levels in a tight resource environment are often leading PES to focus narrowly on the unemployed, despite the fact that lifelong career guidance perspectives are adhered to in principle. Swift placement in employment remains a pivotal challenge for the PES, even as they strive to balance this with other career guidance-related goals such as client clarification of occupational strengths and interests, as well as career management and development in a lifelong perspective. In their attempt to maintain the dynamics of transformation into effective and client-oriented organisations, Europe's PES face a number of important challenges. Four are particularly relevant to personalised employment and career guidance services: - The first challenge concerns the need for PES career guidance and careerguidance- related services to be more systematic in the evaluation of their effectiveness. While there is a strong tradition of critical assessment of PES functions overall, the targeted evaluation of career guidance within PES settings needs further attention, even if there are a number of examples of good practice in several countries that could serve to provide models for emulation. A stronger evidence base on the match between career guidance services and policy objectives buttresses claims for improved resourcing. On the other hand, a lack of systematic evidence leads to a situation where the major shifts in the modalities of service delivery—particularly in relation to responsibility-sharing with partners and outsourced agencies—remain unexamined in terms both of efficiency in resource use, and of impact on quality of service. - A second challenge is to get the right balance between integrating career guidance elements in the services and activities provided by the PES, while at the same time maintaining specialist services for deeper engagement with clients when this is required. In many ways this implies the foregrounding of the identity of career guidance within PES settings. In addition, the attempt to deepen career guidance and career-guidance-related services towards a larger range of clients signals the need for more intensive preparation of staff, and for a more careful consideration of the ways in which the administrative and the career guidance roles of providers can be kept in appropriate balance. - A third challenge arises from the necessity to open up guidance services within the PES to embrace a more long-term, life-long perspective: one that is more in tune with the needs of citizens in the emergent knowledge economy. This vision presents enormous resource and training challenges for the PES, but it is likely to be one that it will need to rise to as citizens increasingly move through occupational and training pathways in more complex, non-linear ways. A lifelong perspective on career guidance would entail the PES in stronger collaboration with education institutions and with companies, so that service delivery is experienced by the client in a seamless, holistic way, with community resources being mobilised in support of goals that have, as an outcome, both the private good and the public good. - Finally, the PES has to rise to the challenge of addressing key gaps in service delivery, and to focus on those areas that require further attention and investment in order to facilitate the provision of quality services for all. The way forward lies in addressing these challenges. ; peer-reviewed
"Major technological advances in the last few years have increased our knowledge of the role that genetics has in occupational diseases and our understanding of genetic components and the interaction between genetics and environmental factors. The use of genetic information, along with all of the other factors that contribute to occupational morbidity and mortality, will play an increasing role in preventing occupational disease. However, the use of genetic information in occupational safety and health research and practice presents both promise and concerns [McCanlies et al. 2003; Kelada et al. 2003; Henry et al. 2002; Christiani et al. 2001; Schulte et al. 1999]. Use of genetic information raises medical, ethical, legal and social issues [Clayton 2003; Ward et al., 2002; McCunney 2002; Christiani et al 2001; Rothstein 2000a; Schulte et al. 1999; Lemmens 1997; Barrett et al. 1997, Van Damme et al. 1995; Gochfeld 1998; Omenn 1982]. The purpose of this report is to bring together the diverse literature and opinions on genetics in the workplace, to highlight important issues, and to provide some considerations for current and future practice. Occupational safety and health professionals and practitioners may have particular interest in this report as the understanding of gene-environment interactions at the mechanistic and population levels may result in improved prevention and control strategies. This report is divided into topic areas for ease of reading. Specifically, the role of genetic information in occupational disease is discussed in Chapter 2, followed in Chapter 3 by a presentation of how genetics is incorporated into occupational health research. Health records as a source of genetic information are discussed in Chapter 4. The report continues in Chapter 5 with a focus on genetic monitoring, followed in Chapter 6 by a theoretical discussion of genetic screening. The final chapter presents an overview of the most important aspects of this report, which are the ethical, social, and legal implications of genetics in the workplace. In addition, ethical issues specific to health records and genetic testing are discussed in Chapters 4 and 6, respectively. To assist our audience in finding additional sources of information or more in-depth discussion of the issues surrounding genetic information, a list of web sites is provided at the conclusion of this document. Role of Genetic Information in Occupational Disease: The role of genetic information in occupational disease is being explored. The framework for considering genetics in the exposure to disease paradigm arose from a National Academy of Sciences review on biomarkers [NRC 1987]. Biomarkers are measurements using biological tissues that give information about exposure, effect of exposure, or susceptibility. Evaluation of genetic damage can provide information about exposure or effect of exposure. However, the presence of a specific genetic biomarker will not itself result in an occupational disease; exposure to a workplace hazard is necessary. The presence of a disease risk biomarker in the absence of exposure may be innocuous. The study of biomarkers of genetic susceptibility in the context of workplace exposures can provide information about gene-environment interactions. One major emphasis of genetic research in occupational disease has been in the area of response variability. Extensive variability in the human response to workplace exposures has been observed. Genes can have multiple variations known as polymorphisms, which may contribute to some of this variability [Grassman et al. 1998]. Research has been conducted over the last approximately 30 years to identify the role of genetic polymorphisms in a wide range of occupational and environmental diseases, particularly those involving occupational carcinogens [Hornig 1988; Berg 1979]. The risk of biological effects or diseases attributable to an occupational exposure can be decreased, unchanged, or increased among individuals with certain genetic polymorphisms. Incorporating Genetics into Occupational Health Research: The main influence on genetic research with respect to occupational health is the large number of technological advances in molecular biology. Because of these new techniques, it is now feasible to evaluate the relationship of disease with individual genes and their variants or even with the whole genome. These technologies promise to set the stage for new discoveries in understanding mechanisms and the preclinical changes that might serve as early warnings of disease or increased risk [NRC 2007]. " ; (Cont'd) "They also present difficult challenges in terms of handling large data sets, understanding the normal range, standardizing technologies for comparison and interpretation, and communicating results [King and Sinha 2001; Wittes and Friedman 1999]. As our understanding of the role of specific genes and their variants increases, genetic tests are being developed to look at specific genotypes. One critical issue in genetics is the validity of such genetic tests. Much contemporary genetic research involves the collection of biological specimens (usually DNA in white blood cells) that are then tested either for changes (damage) to genetic material or for genetic polymorphisms. These genetic tests, while useful in occupational health research, are not ready for clinical use; in other words, they are not validated for clinical interpretation. Validation is a process by which a test's performance is measured both in the laboratory and in populations, resulting in the evaluation of the clinical utility or the risks and benefits of the test. Until clinically validated, the information from such tests may be meaningless with regard to an individual's health or risk. In contrast, genetic tests may be validated for assessing exposure or effect modification in research even if they have no clinical utility. Health Records: A Source of Genetic Information: Genetic tests are not the only source of genetic information in the workplace. Genetic information is kept in workers' personnel and workplace health records [Rothenberg et al. 1997]. This information is in the family history of diseases with known strong genetic etiologies as well as in the results of physical examinations and common laboratory tests. This type of information is reported routinely by workers or obtained by employers from workers' job applications, health questionnaires, health and life insurance applications, physicals, and workers' compensation proceedings [Anderlik and Rothstein 2001]. The line between what is and is not genetic information in health records is unclear. States have enacted legislation with widely varying definitions of what constitutes genetic information from an employee's health record. Questions concerning confidentiality, privacy and security remain as the handling of health records may be influenced by various federal and state regulations. Genetic Monitoring and Occupational Research and Health Practice: Genetic information can be a scientific tool to understand mechanisms and pathways in laboratory research and as independent or dependent variables in population research studies of workers. In occupational safety and health practice, genetic tests may be used in a variety of ways. As in other areas of health science, genetic information may be used in the differential diagnosis of disease, allowing clinicians to consider or exclude various diagnoses. Monitoring for the effects of exposure on genetic material, such as chromosomes, genes, and constituent deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), has been used to evaluate risks and potential health problems for more than 50 years, particularly those from ionizing radiation [Mendelsohn 1995; Langlois et al. 1987; Berg 1979]. Such monitoring is not unlike monitoring for metals in blood, solvents in breath, or dusts in lungs and presents less ethical concern than assessing heritable effects [Schulte and DeBord 2000]. Tests for genetic damage have been advocated as a way to prioritize exposed individuals for more thorough medical monitoring [Albertini 2001]. Genetic monitoring highlights the confusion that exists between individual and group risk assessment. Unlike other monitoring methods, the risks linked to cytogenetic changes are interpretable only for a group, not for an individual [Schulte 2007; Murray 1983; Lappe 1983]. Currently, no U.S. regulations exist that mandate genetic monitoring. Questions arise whether genetic monitoring indicates a potential health problem, an existing health problem, or compensable damage. More research is needed to understand the science before the individual's risk of disease can be interpreted from genetic monitoring results. However, genetic monitoring to determine exposure may be useful for the occupational health practitioner Theoretical Use of Genetic Screening and Occupational Health Practice: Genetic monitoring may have some application in occupational health practice, but perhaps the most controversial use of genetic information would be in making decisions about employment opportunities and health and life insurance coverage [Schill 2000; Bingham 1998; Van Damme et al. 1995; Murray 1983; Lappe 1983]. This would occur primarily as a result of genetic screening, in which a job (and insurance) applicant or a current worker might be asked to undergo genetic testing to determine if he or she has a certain genotype. However, the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act of 2008 (GINA) prohibits discrimination on the basis of genetic information with respect to health insurance and employment [U.S. Congress 2008]. Genetic screening which was not strictly prohibited by the Americans With Disabilities Act of 1990 (ADA) is now prohibited. Under ADA an employer may not make medical inquiries about an applicant until a conditional offer has been extended. Once the offer has been tendered, an employer could have obtained medical, including genetic, information about a job applicant. ADA did not prohibit obtaining genetic information or genetic screening, nor did it prohibit an employer from requesting genetic testing once an applicant has been hired provided the testing is job related. and can be used for the purposes of job placement after a conditional job offer is made. Most criteria for genetic screening programs indicate that participation should be voluntary, with informed consent in place. Genetic screening for these purposes cannot be supported at this time because of the current lack of linkage of causation of a given genetic polymorphism with a given occupational disease and its implications with regard to the Occupational Safety and Health Act (OSH Act of 1970) that the workplace be safe for all workers [OSHA 1980b]. Accurate genetic screening information may eventually be useful to workers considering employment options. Obtaining this information for the worker would become appropriate only after the screening tests have been validated regarding risk. Various ethical arguments have been advanced in the discussion of genetic screening, and a broad range of implications of genetic testing has been discussed in the literature and in this document, including the oversight of genetic testing laboratories. The Ethical, Social, and Legal Implications of Genetics in the Workplace: A concern about the use of genetic information in occupational safety and health is that the emphasis in maintaining a safe and healthful workplace could shift from controlling the environment to excluding the vulnerable worker. This would be counter to the spirit and the letter of the OSH Act of 1970 [OSHA 1980b]. Actions that attempt to depart from providing safe and healthful workplaces for all should not be supported. Nevertheless, understanding the role of genetic factors in occupational morbidity, mortality, and injury is important and could lead to further prevention and control efforts. However, occupational safety and health decision-makers, researchers, and practitioners may find that genetic factors do not contribute substantially to some occupational diseases. Environmental risk factors will probably always be more important for developing strategies for prevention and intervention in occupational disease and ultimately for the reduction of morbidity and mortality. The challenge is to identify and apply genetic information in ways that will improve occupational safety and health for workers. The use of genetic information in occupational safety and health research requires careful attention because of the real or perceived opportunities for the misuse of genetic information. Society in general and workers in particular have concerns that discrimination and lack of opportunity will result from the inappropriate use of genetic information [MacDonald and Williams-Jones 2002; Maltby 2000]. While only sparse or anecdotal information supports this contention, a wide range of workers, legislators, scientists, and public health researchers have concern that such discrimination could occur. Thus, GINA and other regulations were passed to prevent the potential misuse and abuse of genetic information in the workplace. Examples of safeguards include rules and practices for maintaining privacy and confidentiality, prohibition of discrimination, and support of a worker's right of self-determination (autonomy) with regard to genetic information. Many of these safeguards have been built into biomedical research in general, and occupational safety and health research in particular, through guidance given in the Nuremberg Code [1949], the Belmont Report [1979], and the Common Rule (45 CFR. 46) [DHHS 2005; CFR 2007], as well as in the National Bioethics Advisory Commission (NBAC) reports [1999], the ADA [1990], Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) [1996] and GINA in 2008 [U.S. Congress 2008]. ADA and HIPAA provided some safeguards against the potential misuse of genetic information in the workplace before GINA was signed and in 2000, Executive Order 13145 was signed that prohibits discrimination in federal employment based on genetic information [65 Fed. Reg. 6877 (2000)]. In summary, the use of genetic information in the workplace has the potential to affect every worker in the United States. This NIOSH document provides information on the scientific, legal, and ethical issues with regard to the use of genetics in occupational safety and health research and practice." - NIOSHTIC-2 ; Introduction -- The Role of genetic information in occupational disease -- Incorporating genetics into occupational health -- Research -- Health records: a source of genetic information -- Genetic monitoring: occuptional research and practice -- The Theoretical use of genetic screening and occupational health practice. -- The Ethical, social, and legal implications of genetics in the workplace ; "November 2009." ; Also available via the World Wide Web. as an Acrobat .pdf file (1.62 MB, 151 p.). ; Includes bibliographical references (p. 81-114) and index.
Mención Internacional en el título de doctor ; Ciberespacio: la última frontera. Aquí es donde empieza la nueva misión de los juristas en buscar nuevas formas de ejercicio de los derechos humanos. Afortunadamente, no es una misión de ciencia ficción, sino un desafío real, actual y lleno de oportunidades. Consideramos que es el mejor momento para proponer esta tesis e iniciar un trabajo de investigación sobre la dinámica del derecho en la era de las nuevas tecnologías. La tesis está fundamentada en la investigación de este nuevo espacio donde ha entrado el ser humano, titular de los derechos y libertades fundamentales. Como cualquier entorno nuevo, despierta la curiosidad, la necesidad de explorar, pero también la necesidad de estar seguro. El ser humano está programado genéticamente para proteger su vida, integridad y libertad en cualquier entorno, tanto físico como virtual. La ciberseguridad es un tema nuevo, que empezó a fomentar los debates solo desde 1988. Estados, empresas privadas y especialistas se dieron cuenta rápidamente de la necesidad de regular este campo, incluso adaptando el derecho internacional a las nuevas realidades. Los conflictos, eventos frecuentes en la sociedad humana, han migrado rápidamente del espacio físico al espacio virtual, al igual que las armas. Los virus informáticos, las aplicaciones invasivas y el software de espionaje sustituyen a las armas y herramientas de guerra clásicas. Las medidas de seguridad propuestas e implementadas por las autoridades estatales con responsabilidades en el ámbito de la seguridad nacional, así como por empresas privadas que desarrollan programas para combatir ciberataques, basados en medidas de ciber espionaje o hack-back1, se adaptan a los nuevos desafíos tecnológicos, pero evitan solucionar problemas importantes para el individuo como el respeto a sus derechos fundamentales, cuyo reconocimiento y regulación le han costado años de lucha y fundamentación filosófico-legal. En este contexto, cuando la vida del ciudadano se traslada, cada vez más al espacio virtual con todos sus elementos - banca por internet, telemedicina, información e investigación de fuentes digitales, comercio electrónico, citas virtuales, realidad virtual - se deben proponer medidas para proteger el ciberespacio que pueden ser diseñadas en correlación directa con las medidas de seguridad aplicadas en el entorno offline. Si el entorno offline está claramente determinado, y hay actores con papeles muy claros (estados, territorios administrativos, instituciones con responsabilidades en el campo de la seguridad y protección de los ciudadanos, etc.), el espacio virtual sigue siendo una jungla, sin límites conocidos y con incipientes formas de órganos de control, que deberían proteger a los usuarios vulnerables para no ser víctimas de los manipuladores digitales. En este momento, las Naciones Unidas a través de sus comisiones y grupos de expertos, ha asumido el papel de garante de los derechos humanos en el ciberespacio, interpretando las disposiciones de los tratados internacionales y elaborando recomendaciones, para ciber conflictos y alianzas entre Estados y grandes empresas con control tecnológico sobre Internet, tanto en términos de contenido como de conexiones informáticas. A nivel de la Unión Europea, el papel de las instituciones comunitarias, bien definido en el proceso de desarrollo y aplicación de las normas jurídicas, permite diseñar un marco jurídico coherente para la política de ciberseguridad, asegurando un sistema de protección eficaz basado en la cooperación entre los Estados miembros, al mismo tiempo con una protección efectiva de los derechos individuales en el entorno virtual. La tradición democrática de los estados europeos contribuye a la identificación de soluciones viables con respecto a la libertad del ciberespacio y la importancia del individuo en la sociedad. El surgimiento y el fortalecimiento del papel de ENISA en la política europea de ciberseguridad, ofrece la ventaja de estandarizar, centralizar y explotar de manera coherente los datos comunicados por los Estados miembros con el fin de desarrollar normativas bien fundamentadas. Asimismo, esta tesis estudia algunas categorías de derechos fundamentales para descubrir la forma en que se ven influenciados por la nueva realidad de la vida cotidiana. El entorno en el que se ha estudiado y conceptualizado estos derechos a lo largo de la historia, hasta la confirmación en diversos instrumentos de derecho internacional, ha cambiado profundamente. Las amenazas comienzan a ser diversas, y para los juristas no especializados en informática, es un gran reto identificar las brechas en los mecanismos informáticos que garanticen y protejan los derechos fundamentales cuando el individuo actúa en el entorno online. Es posible que la generación de juristas nativos digitales se haga cargo del trabajo de los juristas adaptados digitalmente y sea capaz de construir un sistema legal aplicable a este nuevo entorno de vida del individuo. Esto será posible solo dentro de 10 años, cuando la nueva generación creada en la era de las nuevas tecnologías, posea la capacidad de analizar y proponer soluciones legales. La investigación se centra en el derecho a la privacidad y los elementos que lo componen, siendo considerado como uno de los derechos fundamentales más vulnerables en el entorno online. Los derechos derivados, como el derecho al nombre, la identidad, el honor, la dignidad y la integridad física se están transformando y adquiriendo nuevos valores en la era de las nuevas tecnologías. Algunos de estos derechos se transforman, se trasladan al ciberespacio, se adhieren al ser virtual y se convierten en derechos digitales, propios del nuevo entorno social. En el contenido de la tesis se desarrolló un capítulo dedicado a esta nueva categoría de derechos en el que se intenta establecer sus contenidos y las formas de manifestación. Con respecto a los mecanismos necesarios para garantizar el ejercicio de los derechos y libertades fundamentales, el trabajo analiza los distintos niveles de protección: desde el nivel supranacional (internacional), hasta el regional y nacional, específico de cada Estado. Los mecanismos institucionales y jurisdiccionales están organizados en gran medida de acuerdo con las mismas reglas, guiándose por las regulaciones internacionales sobre derechos humanos, en particular, continuando con las regulaciones a nivel regional y estatal. En el nuevo contexto tecnológico, es necesario revisar dichos mecanismos para que mantengan la misma eficiencia deseada en el momento de su creación. Un punto importante de la investigación consiste en el análisis de las restricciones aplicadas a los derechos humanos bajo el imperio de la Ley. Sin referirse a las injerencias ilegales, sino analizamos la injerencia permitida por la ley, especialmente en nombre de la seguridad colectiva. Seguidamente, se muestran los debates y análisis destinados a establecer el punto de equilibrio entre la importancia de un derecho fundamental u otro. Tanto el derecho a la vida privada como el derecho a la seguridad se consideran fundamentales, pero no absolutos. Desde esta perspectiva, se deben establecer límites claros para que la protección de uno no afecte la integridad del otro. Los Estados a veces imponen medidas excesivamente restrictivas del derecho a la privacidad en nombre de la seguridad nacional, y el ciberespacio es el entorno adecuado para tales prácticas. Cualquier práctica de este tipo, situada a uno de los dos extremos, ya sea muy invasiva en la esfera personal o ineficaz desde una perspectiva de seguridad, debe ser reevaluada y relacionada con los derechos humanos, tanto desde una perspectiva individual como colectiva. Por ejemplo, el derecho a la vida privada o el derecho a la seguridad del ser humano puede, dentro de límites razonables, restringir el derecho de otra persona a expresarse o manifestar ciertas necesidades mentales en el espacio digital. Teniendo en cuenta los objetivos propuestos al principio, aplicando los métodos de investigación correspondientes y analizando la literatura, el marco normativo vigente y la jurisprudencia en derechos humanos, esta tesis identifica y enfatiza la interacción entre los derechos humanos fundamentales y los efectos sociales de las nuevas tecnologías, incluyendo las consecuencias sobre los derechos conexos. En este contexto particularmente dinámico, el mayor desafío para la nueva generación de juristas será adaptar el marco legal actual, a las nuevas realidades del mundo digital. Dado que las normas de derecho que rigen nuestra vida cotidiana han evolucionado lentamente y durante un largo período de tiempo, la rápida evolución tecnológica y la migración del individuo al espacio virtual requieren una urgente adaptación del marco legal a las nuevas realidades para que la Ley pueda mantener su misión de guardián del bienestar público. Además, esta nueva pandemia, origina y causa inciertos ampliamente cuestionado en el entorno online, ha provocado una restricción en masa de los derechos humanos similar a la última guerra mundial. Se ha restringido el derecho a la: libertad de circulación, manifestación, reunión, expresión, educación, trabajo e incluso el derecho a buscar la felicidad. Por la limitación de estos derechos la gente, por temor al enemigo invisible e incomprendido, aceptó sin oposición la mayor parte todas estas injerencias de las autoridades en su vida privada y en el conjunto de sus libertades fundamentales. Solo pequeños grupos de activistas continúan luchando por defender sus derechos fundamentales. No sabemos si este evento global llamado pandemia COVID 19 reescribirá la historia de los derechos fundamentales, pero es cierto que su impacto en el ámbito de las libertades individuales ha tenido un efecto muy fuerte e inquietante con respecto a otra transformación, incluida la revolución tecnológica. En estas condiciones, nos queda una única opción o desafío: defender al individuo, con todos sus atributos, en una sociedad dinámica, caracterizada por transformaciones atípicas. ; Spațiul cibernetic – ultima frontieră. Aici începe misiunea juriștilor în căutarea noilor forme de exercitare a drepturilor omului. Din fericire, nu este o misiune science- fiction, ci este o provocare reală, actuală și plină de oportunități. Consider că am ales cel mai bun moment pentru a propune această teza și a iniția o muncă de cercetare asupra dinamicii dreptului în era noilor tehnologii. Această eră este abia la început. Lucrarea de față pornește de la cercetarea acestui nou spațiu în care a pătruns ființa umană deținătoare a drepturilor și libertăților fundamentale. Ca orice mediu nou, stârnește curiozitatea, nevoia de a explora dar și nevoia de a fi în siguranță. Ființa umană este programată genetic să își protejeze viața, integritatea și libertatea în orice mediu s-ar afla, atât fizic cât și virtual. Securitatea spațiului cibernetic este o temă nouă, se discută despre acest subiect abia din anul 1988. Statele, companiile private și specialiștii au conștientizat rapid necesitatea reglementării acestui domeniu, inclusiv prin adaptarea dreptului internațional la noile realități. Conflictele, evenimente frecvente în societatea umană, au migrat rapid din spațiul fizic în spațiul virtual, la fel și armele. Virușii informatici, aplicațiile intruzive, softurile de spionaj iau locul clasicelor arme și unelte de război. Măsurile de securitate propuse și implementate de autoritățile statale cu atribuții în domeniul securității naționale, cât și de companiile private care dezvoltă programe de combatere a atacurilor cibernetice, bazate pe spionaj cibernetic sau măsuri de tipul hack-back se adaptează noilor provocări tehnologice, dar ocolesc teme importante pentru individ cum ar fi respectarea drepturilor sale fundamentale, a căror recunoaștere și reglementare au costat ani buni de luptă și fundamentare filosofico-juridică. În contextul în care viața cetățeanului migrează din ce în ce mai mult către spațiul virtual, cu toate elementele ei – internet banking, telemedicină, informare și cercetare din surse digitale, comerț electronic, virtual dating, virtual reality – măsurile de protecție a spațiului cibernetic trebuie gândite în directă corelare cu măsurile de securitate aplicate în mediul off-line. Dacă mediul off-line este clar determinat și există actori cu roluri clare (state, teritorii administrative, instituții cu atribuții în domeniul securității și siguranței cetățeanului etc.), spațiul virtual este încă o junglă, fără limite cunoscute și cu organisme XIV de supraveghere în stadiu incipient de dezvoltare care ar trebui să poată proteja utilizatorii vulnerabili în cazul în care devin victime ale unor manipulatori digitali. La acest moment Organizația Națiunilor Unite, prin comisiile și grupurile de experți, și-a asumat rolul de garant al drepturilor omului în spațiul cibernetic, interpretând prevederile tratatelor internaționale și elaborând recomandări pentru conflictele cibernetice și parteneriatul dintre state și marile companii care dețin controlul tehnologic asupra Internetului, atât din perspectiva conținutului cât și al conexiunilor informatice. La nivelul Uniunii Europene, rolul instituțiilor comunitare, fiind bine definit în ceea ce privește elaborarea și implementarea normelor de drept, permite creionarea unui cadru legal coerent în ceea ce privește politica de securitate cibernetică, asigurarea unui sistem efectiv de protecție bazat pe cooperarea dintre statele membre, dar și protecția efectivă a drepturilor individuale în mediul online. Tradiția democratică a statelor europene contribuie la identificarea unor soluții viabile în ceea ce privește libertatea spațiului cibernetic și importanța individului în societate. Apariția și întărirea rolului ENISA în politica europeană de securitate cibernetică oferă avantajul uniformizării, centralizării și exploatării coerente a datelor raportate de statele membre în vederea elaborării unor reglementări corect fundamentate. Teza studiază și categoriile de drepturi fundamentale din perspectiva modului în care acestea se văd influențate de noua realitate a vieții cotidiene. Mediul în care aceste drepturi au fost studiate și conceptualizate de-a lungul istoriei până la momentul proclamării lor în diverse instrumente de drept internațional, s-a schimbat profund. Amenințările încep să fie altele decât cele cunoscute, iar pentru juriști, eminamente atehnici, este o mare provocare identificarea breșelor din mecanismele de garantare și protecție a drepturilor fundamentale atunci când individul acționează în mediul online. Este posibil ca generația juriștilor nativi digitali să preia munca juriștilor adaptați digitali și să poată construi un sistem legal aplicabil acestui nou mediu de viață al individului, dar acest lucru va fi posibil abia peste 10 ani când noua generație, născută în epoca noilor tehnologii, va avea capacitatea de a analiza și propune soluții juridice. Cercetarea s-a focalizat cu precădere asupra dreptului la viață privată și a elementelor care îl compun, considerat fiind ca unul dintre cele mai vulnerabile drepturi fundamentale în mediul on line. Drepturile derivate, precum dreptul la nume, la identitate, la onoare, la demnitate, la integritate fizică se transformă și capătă noi valențe în era noilor tehnologii. O parte dintre aceste drepturi se transformă, migrează în spațiul cibernetic, se atașează ființei virtuale și devin drepturi digitale, specifice noului mediul de viață socială. În cuprinsul tezei a fost dezvoltat un capitol dedicat acestei noi categorii de drepturi în care se încearcă stabilirea conținutului și a formei de manifestare. În ceea ce privește mecanismele de garantare a exercițiului drepturilor și libertăților fundamentale, lucrarea analizează diversele niveluri de protecție: de la nivelul suprastatal (internațional), la cel regional și cel național, specific fiecărui stat. Mecanismele instituționale și jurisdicționale se organizează în mare parte după aceleași reguli fiind ghidate de reglementările internaționale în materia drepturilor omului, cu precădere, continuând cu reglementările la nivel regional și statal. În noul context tehnologic, inclusiv aceste mecanisme necesită o revizuire astfel încât să își poată păstra eficiența dorită la momentul creării lor. Un punct important al lucrării îl reprezintă analiza restrângerilor aplicate drepturilor omului sub imperiul legii. Așadar nu ne referim la ingerințele aflate în sfera ilegalului, ci la ingerințele permise de lege, în special în numele securității colective. Aici apar dezbaterile și analizele care vizează stabilirea punctului de echilibru între importanța unui drept fundamental sau al altuia. Atât dreptul la viață privată, cât și dreptul la securitate sunt considerate fundamentale, dar nu absolute. Din această perspectivă, trebuie stabilite limite clare astfel încât protejarea unuia să nu afecteze integritatea celuilalt. Uneori statele stabilesc măsuri restrictive exagerate asupra dreptului la viață privată în numele securității naționale, iar spațiul cibernetic este mediul propice pentru acest gen de practici. Orice practică de acest gen, aflată la una dintre cele două extreme, fie intrusivă în sfera personală, fie ineficientă din perspectiva securității, trebuie reevaluată și corelată cu drepturile omului, atât din perspectivă individuală cât și colectivă. De exemplu, dreptul la viață privată sau dreptul la securitate al ființei umane poate restrânge, în limite rezonabile, dreptul altei persoane de a se exprima sau de a-și manifesta anumite nevoi psihice în spațiul digital. Ținând cont de obiectivele propuse, cu aplicarea metodelor de cercetare asumate și analizând literatura de specialitate, cadrul normativ în vigoare și jurisprudența referitoare la drepturile omului, această teză identifică și subliniază interacțiunea dintre drepturile fundamentale ale ființei umane și efectele sociale ale noilor tehnologii, inclusiv consecințele asupra drepturilor conexe. În acest context deosebit de dinamic, cea mai mare provocare pentru noua generație de juriști va fi adaptarea cadrului legal în vigoare la noile realități ale lumii digitale. În condițiile în care normele de drept care ne guvernează viața de zi cu zi au avut o evoluție lentă și extinsă pe o perioadă lungă de timp, evoluția tehnologică rapidă și migrarea individului în spațiul virtual impun o adaptare urgentă a cadrului legal la noile realități astfel încât norma de drept să își poată păstra misiunea de gardian al binelui public. Mai mult, această nouă pandemie, cu origini și cauze incerte, aprig dezbătute în mediul online, a determinat o restrângere în masă a drepturilor omului poate la fel de acerbă cu cea provocată de ultimul război mondial. Ne-au fost restrânse pe rând dreptul la libertatea de mișcare, dreptul la întruniri, dreptul la manifestări, dreptul la exprimare, dreptul la educație, dreptul la muncă și inclusiv dreptul la căutarea fericirii. Iar oamenii, de teama inamicului nevăzut și neînțeles, au acceptat în cea mai mare parte toate aceste ingerințe ale autorităților în viața lor privată și în cercul libertăților lor fundamentale. Grupuri mici de activiști continuă lupta de apărare a drepturilor lor fundamentale. Nu știm dacă acest eveniment global numit pandemie va rescrie istoria drepturilor fundamentale, dar cert este că impactul lui asupra sferei libertăților individuale a avut un efect mult mai abrupt și mai intrusiv decât orice altă transformare, inclusiv cea tehnologică. În aceste condiții, ne rămâne o singură opțiune: aceea de a apăra individul, cu toate atributele sale, într-o societate dinamică, caracterizată de transformări atipice. ; Cyberspace - the last frontier. This is where the mission of the lawyers begins: to search new forms of human rights manifestation. Fortunately, it is not a science-fiction mission, but a real, current and full of opportunities challenge. We consider that this is the best-chosen moment to propose this paper and to initiate a research work on the dynamics of law under the era of new technologies. Because this era has just begun. This thesis aims to explore this new space where the human being, holder of fundamental rights and freedoms, has entered. Like any new environment, the digital world arouses curiosity, engages the human need to explore but also activates the need to be safe. The human being is genetically programmed to protect his life, integrity and freedom in any type of environment, no matter if is real or virtual. Cybersecurity is a new topic; this topic has been brought in public debates only since 1988. States, private companies and specialists have quickly become aware of the need of regulation in this area, including by adapting international law to new realities. Conflicts, as frequent events in human society, have rapidly migrated from physical to the virtual space. The weapons as well. Cyber viruses, spyware, worms, malware took the place of the classic weapons and tools of war. The proposed security measures were implemented by state authorities with responsibilities in the field of national security, as well as by private companies. The efforts made to develop programs to fight against cyber-attacks, based on cyber espionage or hack-back measures, must be adapted to ever new technological challenges, but not forgetting the important issues for the individual human being, such the respect for his fundamental rights, whose recognition and regulation have cost years of legal struggle and philosophical debates. In this context, where the life of the citizen migrates more and more to the virtual space, with all its elements - internet banking, telemedicine, information and research from digital sources, electronic commerce, virtual dating, virtual reality – protective measures for cyberspace must designed in direct correlation with the security measures applied in the offline environment. If the offline environment is clearly determined, populated with actors playing key roles (states, administrative territories, institutions with responsibilities in the field of XVIII security and safety of citizens, etc.), the virtual space is still a jungle, with unknown limits and incipient supervisory bodies struggling to protect vulnerable users against digital criminals. At this moment, the United Nations, through its commissions and expert groups, has taken on the role of human rights protector in cyberspace, interpreting the provisions of international treaties and developing recommendations for cyber conflicts and partnerships between states and large companies with technological control over the Internet, both in terms of digital content and computer connections. In the European Union, the specific role of the public institutions in the legal area allows drafting a coherent legal framework for cybersecurity policy, ensuring an effective system of protection based on cooperation between Member States, also bringing an effective protection of individual rights in the online environment. Also, the democratic tradition of Member States contributes in finding viable solutions regarding the freedom of cyberspace respecting, in the same time, the social importance of the human being. The creation on ENISA, with its determined role in the European cybersecurity policy, offers the advantage of a coherent approach in standardizing, centralizing and exploiting the data reported by Member States in order to develop well-founded regulations. The thesis also studies some categories of fundamental rights observing the new perspective of human liberty and privacy induced by technology and digitalization of reality. It is obvious that the initial environment where these rights have been studied and conceptualized has radically changed and their legal confirmation in the international law must be adapted to the new reality. The new digital threats to human fundamental rights are different from the known ones, and for the lawyers, who are non-technical by nature, it is a great challenge to identify the gaps in the informatics mechanisms of protecting fundamental rights when the person acts in the online environment. Maybe the generation of digital native lawyers will take over the work of digitally adapted lawyers and will be able to build a legal system applicable to this new living environment of the individual, but this success will be possible only after the next 10 years, when the new generation, born in the age of new technologies, will have the ability to analyze and propose legal solutions. The research focused mainly on the right to privacy and its legal components, being considered as one of the most vulnerable fundamental rights in the online environment. Connected human rights, such as the right to a name and to a nationality, identity, honor, dignity, physical integrity, are transforming and gaining new values in the era of technology. Some of these rights are reinvented and relocated into cyberspace, where they attach to the virtual human being and become digital rights, specific to the digital social environment. In the thesis there we dedicated a chapter to this new category of human liberties, aiming to establish the content and the limits of these new digital rights. Regarding the mechanisms for guaranteeing the exercise of fundamental rights and freedoms, the paper analyzes the various levels of protection: from the supranational (international) level, to the regional and national level, specific to each state. The institutional and jurisdictional mechanisms are largely organized according to the same rules, being guided by international human rights framework, at a global level, and particularly regulated by regional or local specific legal regulations. In the new technological context, these mechanisms need to be revised so that they can maintain their desired efficiency as the moment of their creation. Another important point of this paper is the analysis of the restrictions applied to human rights under the rule of law. So, we are not referring to any illegal interference, but we analyze the limitations allowed by law, especially in the name of collective security. This is the point where debates and analyzes converge in finding the perfect balance between the importance of one fundamental right to another. Both right to privacy and right to security are considered fundamental, but not absolute. From this perspective, clear boundaries must be set so that the exercise of one right does not affect the integrity of the other. Sometimes states impose overly restrictive measures on the right to privacy in the name of national security, and cyberspace is the perfect environment for such practices. Any practice situated at one of the two extremes, either intrusive in the personal sphere or inefficient from a security perspective, must be re-evaluated and correlated with the human rights, both from an individual and a collective perspective. For example, the right to privacy or the right to security of one person may interfere, in reasonable limits, with the right of another person to express himself or herself or to manifest certain psychical needs in the digital space. Fallowing the proposed objectives, applying the specific research methods and analyzing the legal literature, the regulatory framework and the jurisprudence on human rights, this thesis identifies and emphasizes the interaction between fundamental human rights and the social effects of the new technologies, including the consequences on related rights. In this particularly dynamic context, the biggest challenge for the new generation of lawyers will be to adapt the current legal framework to the new realities of the digital world. Given that the rules of law governing our daily lives have a long and slow evolution, this rapid technological revolution and the migration of the individual into virtual space urge for a quick adjustment of the legal framework to new realities so that the rule of law to be able to keep its mission of guardian of the public welfare. Moreover, this new pandemic, with uncertain origins and causes, hotly debated in the online environment, has led to a more severe human rights restriction than the last world war. We have been restricted in our right to freedom of movement, right to public meeting, right to manifestation, right to expression, right to education, right to work and even our right to pursue happiness. Under the fear of the unseen and unknown enemy, people accepted the most part all these interferences from the authorities in their private lives and in their circle of fundamental freedoms. Small groups of activists continue the fight to defend their fundamental rights. We do not know whether this global event called the pandemic will rewrite the history of fundamental rights, but it is certain that its impact on the individual freedoms has already determined a huge and more intrusive impact than any other transformation, including technological. Under these conditions, we have only one challenge: to defend the human individual in this dynamic society, with all its attributes, characterized by atypical transformations. ; Programa de Doctorado en Estudios Avanzados en Derechos Humanos por la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid ; Presidente: Carlos Ramón Fernández Liesa.- Secretario: María Pilar Trinidad Núñez.- Vocal: Radu Carp