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The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2015.1099204 ; This paper examines whether defense expenditures contributed to economic growth in China for the 1952-2012 period. We examine the contribution of defense to economic growth using recently published official data on economic activity, defense, and government expenditures. We employ the Feder-Ram and augmented Solow models of economic growth to explore the defense-growth relationship. The Feder-Ram model appears to poorly explain economic growth in China. The augmented Solow model suggests, however, that a 1% increase in defense expenditures raises the economic growth rate by approximately 0.15-0.19%. ; Potomac Foundation

The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.2753/EEE0012-8775460202 ; In the first decade that the former socialist countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia transitioned toward freer markets, measured income inequality increased. Because this contradicted previous models of inequality, researchers linked the increase in inequality to a supposed equality under socialism and to the process of economic and political liberalization. We show, however, that other factors, including hidden inequalities in the socialist era, can explain democratization's resultant increase in measured income inequality.

This paper can be downloaded at: http://aysps.gsu.edu/publications/2007/index.htm ; SSRN-id989050 ; Existing evidence suggests that U.S. Government budget receipts forecasts are unbiased and efficient. Our study is an attempt to examine the veracity of these findings. The time series framework employed in this study is distinguished from previous work in three ways. First, we build a model that explicitly admits serial correlation in the residuals by allowing for autoregressive, moving-average, serial correlation. Second, we employ the nonparametric Monte-Carlo bootstrap to free ourselves from reliance on asymptotic distribution theory which is suspect given the short data series available for this study. Third, we control for errors in the macroeconomic and financial assumptions used to produce the U.S. Government's budget forecasts. We find that the U.S. Government's annual, one-year ahead, budget receipts forecasts for fiscal years 1963 through 2003 are biased and inefficient. In addition, we find that these forecasts exhibit serial correlation in their errors and thus do not efficiently exploit all available information. Finally, we find evidence that is consistent with strategic bias that may reflect the political goals of the Administration in power. ; Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Explores the hidden inequality in pretransition socialist economies in Eastern Europe & Central Asia. At issue is how the socialist system generated, tolerated, & concealed inequalities & why economic inequality was important to the running of centrally planned economies. The measurement & interpretation of inequality was distorted by its political purpose; thus, economic indices for the period are useless as they existed to justify the regime. Various sources of inequality, eg, education, housing, health care, are discussed. 1 Figure, 39 References. J. Zendejas

BACKGROUND: Urbanization challenges the assumptions that have traditionally influenced maternal and newborn health (MNH) programs. This landscaping outlines how current mental models for MNH programs have fallen short for urban slum populations and identifies implications for the global community. We employed a three-pronged approach, including a literature review, key informant interviews with global- and national-level experts, and a case study in Bangladesh. MAIN BODY: Our findings highlight that the current mental model for MNH is inadequate to address the needs of the urban poor. Implementation challenges have arisen from using traditional methods that are not well adapted to traits inherent in slum settings. A re-thinking of implementation strategies will also need to consider a paucity of available routine data, lack of formal coordination between stakeholders and providers, and challenging municipal government structures. Innovative approaches, including with communications, outreach, and technology, will be necessary to move beyond traditional rural-centric approaches to MNH. As populations continue to urbanize, common slum dynamics will challenge conventional strategies for health service delivery. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed weaknesses in a system that requires intersectoral collaborations to deliver quality care. CONCLUSION: Programs will need to be iterative and adaptive, reflective of sociodemographic features. Integrating the social determinants of health into evaluations, using participatory human-centered design processes, and innovative public-private partnerships may prove beneficial in slum settings. But a willingness to rethink the roles of all actors within the delivery system overall may be needed most.

This paper empirically examines whether the aging of a fleet affects operational availability and operating cost using a unique data-set on the 117 47-foot Motor Lifeboats (MLBs) of the United States Coast Guard (USCG). Procured from 1997 to 2003, the 47-foot MLB is the standard lifeboat of the USCG and all 117 MLBs remain in service. The aging of the MLB fleet has resulted in higher annual operating costs and lower operational availability, although the nature of this relationship remains unclear. Our estimation strategy utilizes an error components estimator to examine these issues. We employ three variants of the dependent variables (i.e. the standard logarithmic transformation as is most commonly seen in the literature, inverse hyperbolic sine [IHS], and level outcomes). The point estimates from the standard logarithmic model finds operational availability for the MLBs decreases at a rate between 0.83 and 1.8% per year and cost increases at a rate between 0.33 and 7.81% per year. Similar effects are shown with the IHS and level outcome specifications. In terms of nonlinearity effects, we find the most pronounced changes in operational availability and cost occur for MLBs aged 15 years or more (in comparison to younger MLBs).

In recent years, many developed countries have moved to develop their annual budget process in a strategic multi‐year framework. While a common feature of multi‐year budgeting approaches is the inclusion of revenue forecasts and expenditures estimates for two or three years beyond the current year, multi‐year budget practices vary substantially between countries. This article reviews multi‐year budgeting practices in six developed countries (Australia, Austria, Germany, New Zealand, Great Britain, and the United States) and attempts to draw lessons from these experiences for the potential application of multi‐year budget techniques by developing and transitional countries. We draw five lessons from the multi‐year budget practices of developed countries that are relevant for developing and transitional economies: (1) a multi‐year dimension could be a valuable fiscal policy and management tool for developing and transitional countries; (2) the approach chosen in each developing or transitional economy should reflect the country's policy objectives, unique budget institutions and traditions, and administrative capabilities; (3) the introduction of a multi‐year budget dimension is a gradual process; (4) the multi‐year budget should be used to encourage the constructive involvement of line ministries in the budget process; and (5) the usefulness of the multi‐year budget approach will crucially depend on the reliability and accuracy of the medium‐term budget estimates.

We examine the relationship between fiscal decentralization and the functional composition of public expenditures. Using a distance-sensitive representative agent model, we hypothesize that higher levels of fiscal decentralization induce agents to demand increased production of publicly provided private goods. We test this hypothesis using an unbalanced panel data set of 45 developed and developing countries covering a 28-year period. We find strong evidence that decentralization increases the share of education and health expenditures in total government expenditures. We note that the influence of decentralization on the composition of public expenditures may be greater in developing countries relative to industrialized countries.