"Mit E-Commerce verbinden sich hohe Erwartungen auf nachhaltige Verbesserungen der Wirtschaftsorganisation: gesteigerte Reaktionsfähigkeit auf Nachfrageveränderungen, mehr Kosteneffizienz, neue Dienstleistungen und Impulse für den Arbeitsmarkt. Voraussetzung ist jedoch eine entsprechend optimierte Reorganisation der Logistikund Verkehrssysteme. Hierzu sind adäquate Entwicklungsszenarien zu beschreiben. Zur Bewältigung eines wachsenden Anteils von e-commerce-basierten Transaktionen müssen geeignete Planungsgrundlagen geschaffen werden. Dies gilt insbesondere für die wirtschaftspolitische Gestaltung der Logistik- und Verkehrssysteme, wobei mögliche ökologisch unerwünschte Nebenwirkungen zu berücksichtigen sind. Auch in Deutschland besteht in dieser Hinsicht noch ein erheblicher Forschungsbedarf. Nach derzeitigem Erkenntnisstand zeichnet sich ein mehr evolutorischer Prozess der Ausbreitung von E-Commerce ab, nachdem die Internet-Euphorie der vergangenen Jahre verflogen ist. Die Wirtschaftspolitik sollte die damit gegebene Atempause nutzen, um sich auf die künftigen Veränderungen in den Logistik und Verkehrssystemen besser vorzubereiten." (Autorenreferat)
Die vorliegende Studie diskutiert Konzepte für die Schätzung von Beschäftigungswirkungen von E-Commerce unter Berücksichtigung der unterschiedlichen Facetten des Phänomens auf der Infrastruktur- und der Anwendungsebene. Auf Grundlage von EBusiness – Modellen wird ein Analyserahmen entwickelt, und die verfügbaren Datenquellen werden auf ihre Tauglichkeit für die Untersuchung von Beschäftigungseffekten hin untersucht. Aufgrund gravierender Datenlücken und großer Unsicherheit über die ECommerce-Strategien in anwendenden Unternehmen wird vorgeschlagen, für die weitere Forschung zunächst kleinere Untersuchungseinheiten zu definieren sowie eine deutliche Verbreiterung der Informationsbasis durch Primärdatenerhebung insbesondere für Längsschnittanalysen und detaillierten Fallstudien anzustreben. Zum Abschluss der Studie werden einige Politikempfehlungen für eine Verbesserung der Rahmenbedingungen für die E-Commerce induzierte Beschäftigungsentwicklung in Deutschland gegeben. ; This study discusses an analytical framework for the estimation of employment effects in Germany taking into account the diversity of E-commerce features on the infrastructure as well as on the application side. This framework should be based on EC business models and examines available data sources. Due to data shortages in official statistics and uncertainties about strategic concepts for the application of E-commerce in current businesses, it is suggested to concentrate current research efforts on well defined small areas of the whole economy and begin with a thorough collection of primary data from surveys especially for longitudinal analysis and on detailed case studies. Finally some policy recommendations to improve the framework for EC induced employment changes in Germany a proposed.
Both the increasing mobility of capital and the globalization of enterprises has changed world markets in the last two decades. The economies of South-East Asia, especially Japan and South Korea, are no longer the work benches of the western industries, but they were very successful in catching up to the former leading nations of Europe and the United States. This development gave rise to a new discussion on the effects of industrial policy. One of the main shortcomings of this debate is the lack of a comprehensive analysis of all relevant decisions and measures. Since 1990 the Commission of the European Union (EU) has published several papers containing the objectives and instruments of a new industrial policy. The intention is to improve the competitiveness of the European firms and the creation of about 15 million jobs until the end of the century. For this reason the Commission wants to encourage non-physical investment to shift the physical-based economy to a knowledge-based economy. R&D efforts should be better coordinated and economic incentives to support the diffusion of R&D results into products and processes have to be applied. Another key element of these initiatives is the implementation of the so-called transeuropean networks (i.e. transport infrastructure, telecommunications and energy networks). Subsidies for ailing industries will be reduced while the future technologies will be promoted for their positive externalities on other sectors. The Commission lays particular stress on the Single Market as a kind of training field for the European industries, too. Competitive home markets are a necessary prerequisite for being internationally successful. A closer look at the main trading partners of the EU, Japan and the USA, shows that the governments of both countries pursue similiar strategies. The concept of a new industrial policy which takes into consideration the positive dynamic effects of competition could be justified by the results of the New (or Endogenous) Growth Theory. Particularly the externalities of investment decisions and the incentives to concentrate on R&D are analyzed. Studies like the famous one by Michael Porter or the ideas of Robert Reich reveal the increased importance of non-physical investment and competition, too. As a matter of fact the planned measures of the Commission seem to be a step in the right direction for their emphasis on improving the long-run growth conditions and for making the EU countries a more attractive location for international enterprises. Higher growth rates will offer the chance to create new jobs but in the short run this will not solve the current labour market problems. For leading economies (e.g. Germany) one element of a strategy to overcome these difficulties could be the choice between a more productivity-oriented or a more employment-oriented growth path within the sectors producing non-tradable goods. The second element is the reduction of working hours per head. This decrease could be combined with human capital investments. Reduced income could be compensated by a better qualification of the employees which lowers the probability of being laid off.
Immer mehr Länder beginnen, ihre Währung aktiv zu schwächen oder eine Schwäche in Kauf zu nehmen. Droht ein Abwertungswettlauf? Andreas Rees, UniCredit, plädiert für ein neues, multipolares Währungssystem, das die Dominanz des US-Dollars beseitigt. Dann wären der Finanzierung von Leistungsbilanzdefiziten Grenzen gesetzt. Abwertungswettläufe ließen sich zwar auch dann nicht vollständig ausschließen, aber das Gleichgewicht der Kräfte dürfte zumindest für mehr Stabilität sorgen. Markus Taube, Universität Duisburg-Essen, unterstreicht, dass die institutionelle Ausgestaltung des chinesischen Wechselkursregimes der chinesischen Regierung ein breites Spektrum zur Einflussnahme auf die ökonomische Entwicklung im Land bietet. Da oberste Priorität der chinesischen Wirtschaftspolitik die Förderung struktureller Wandlungsprozesse in der chinesischen Volkswirtschaft sei, verliere eine wirtschaftspolitisch motivierte Schwächung des Außenwertes des Renminbi zunehmend an ökonomischer Rationalität. Denn mit der Bereitschaft der chinesischen Regierung, den Wachstumsmotor der chinesischen Volkswirtschaft in die binnenmarktorientierten Zentralprovinzen zu verlagern, wachse die Notwendigkeit einer weiteren Flexibilisierung und Aufwertung des Wechselkurses. Für Bernd Kempa, Universität Münster, hängt die Frage, ob die gegenwärtige Situation in einen Abwertungswettlauf münden kann, entscheidend von dem zukünftigen Verhalten der amerikanischen sowie der chinesischen Notenbank ab. Er stuft die Gefahr einer weiteren Eskalation des Währungskonflikts aber als minimal ein. Georg Erber, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin, sieht derzeit noch keine Änderung im Verhalten der chinesischen Führung - und damit die Fortführung der Unterbewertung der chinesischen Währung. Die EU sollte vor allem ein starkes Interesse haben, dass es nicht innerhalb weniger Jahre zu ähnlich starken Ungleichgewichten in der Leistungsbilanz zwischen China und den EU-Mitgliedstaaten kommt, wie sie zwis
On 11-12 November 2008, SUERF and Banque Centrale du Luxembourg organized a conference on Productivity in the Financial Services Sector on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the Banque Centrale du Luxembourg. The conference addressed three main themes: first, stylized facts on banks' productivity developments and the measurement of productivity; second, sources of productivity in banking; and third, the possible repercussions and consequences of the financial crisis on financial institutions' future productivity development. These three topics are taken up from various angles in the papers contained in the present volume, which represent a selection of the papers presented at the conference. Coming back to the three themes mentioned at the outset, the conference yielded some interesting results and raised many issues for further research. As regards theme 1, the papers presented overall suggest that financial integration in Europe has brought some, albeit according to some studies limited, convergence of bank efficiency among countries but on average productivity improvement has been weak. Various interesting attempts to capture banks' output were presented, but the various performance and efficiency measures yield different results. Linked to the difficulty of measuring the value of financial institutions' services, it remains far from clear what the "fair value" of a bank should be. This problem may also in part explain the very sharp ups and downs of bank stocks recently. Concerning theme 2, sources of productivity in financial services, several potentially important factors were mentioned: investments in ICT, investments in human resources, the quality of managers and remuneration policy, process effectiveness, mergers and acquisitions and economies of scale, privatizations, risk diversification versus regional and/or product specialisation, and risk-taking. Yet, no unambiguous picture emerged on which of these factors are most important. Regarding theme 3, the financial crisis may have far-reaching implications on our view of financial innovation and efficiency, on the way how to measure productivity appropriately as well as on the future development of financial institutions' productivity. First, the question arises whether the quest for productivity and profitability may under certain circumstances compromise the quality of banks' services (such as, e.g. the care invested into credit assessments and risk monitoring) and as a consequence put the stability of banks and the financial system at risk. As the recent crisis and its underlying causes suggest, there may at times be trade-offs between innovation and financial stability. If financial supervision and risk management do not keep up with financial innovation, the social value of such innovation may not be positive at all times. Financial innovation may also have blurred signals on banks? financial and risk positions, and thus have misled bank shareholders, clients and supervisors in their assessment of banks? business models and conduct of business. Second, the crisis might also affect banks? future performance: Increased government interference and stricter surveillance and capital adequacy rules might curb banks? profitability and efficiency, as measured by traditional performance indicators. However, the conventional measures of performance as presented and discussed at the conference - however varied and multifaceted they may be in trying to measure efficieny (i.e. the avoidance of unnecessary costs in the production process) and competition (the avoidance of inappropriately high profits) - basically seem to have a short-term focus. A longer-term perspective would also consider e.g. the financial institutions? solvency and the safety of deposits, as well as their stability and continued performance in periods of severe stress. Such extensions to the concept of ?performance? should certainly be explored more deeply in the light of the current crisis. In particular, bank efficiency should be considered by supervisors with a view to its influence on risk behaviour. The current debate on regulatory reform in response to the crisis also addresses the need for closer international coordination among supervisory regimes. Tighter regulatory coordination may, on the one hand, close regulatory loopholes, thus curbing banks? profit opportunities, at least in the short run. On the other hand, international harmonization of regulatory rules may generate considerable cost savings for internationally active financial institutions. By contributing to financial market integration it could also stiffen competition and in this way improve efficiency. A related issue is how the crisis will affect the size of banks in the future. Will consolidation in the sector ultimately result in fewer and bigger banks? Or will governments? and regulators? bad experience with institutions which are ?too big to fail? create pressure towards more and smaller institutions? The outcome of this may in turn have possible implications for competition and thus, ultimately, on future innovation, efficiency and productivity developments. Finally, in the coming months and years the issue of exit strategies from state intervention will have to be solved. In particular, how long should partial or full nationalisations of troubled banks last? Historical experiences vary, ranging from rather rapid re-privatisations in some cases to continued strong government influence decades. How can banks? increased reliance on government assistance be abolished and market-based incentives for productivity-enhancing strategies be restored, given the massive moral hazard created by the ? unavoidable ? government bail outs of banks? In conclusion, the conference demonstrated that various disciplines ? business administration, management, organisation and economics ? as well as different professional perspectives ? those of academia, practitioners and of policy makers ? need to be combined to do full justice to the complexity of the subject at hand. SUERF?s triple constituency and multiple-discipline approach again proved particularly suitable to approaching such a far-reaching topic.
