Bu tez çalışmasının amacı, belirsizliğin, Borsa İstanbul'a (BIST) kote olmuş imalat sanayi sektörü şirketlerinin kurumsal yatırım kararları üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktır. Belirsizliğe ekonomi politikası belirsizliği endeksi temsili değişkeni ile yaklaşılmıştır. Çalışmanın amacı doğrultusunda, ilk aşamada, Baker vd.'nin (2015) metodu takip edilerek, Türkiye için haber bazlı aylık bir ekonomi politika belirsizlik endeksi oluşturulmuştur. Endeks verisi Şubat 2000'den Aralık 2018'e kadar olan zamanı kapsamaktadır. Veriyi elde etmek için beş adet Türkçe gazetenin dijital arşivleri taranmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre ekonomi politikası belirsizlik endeksi hem iç hem de dış olaylardan etkilenmektedir. Endeks başlıca, seçimler ve yurtiçi politik belirsizlikler ile yükselişe geçmiştir.İkinci olarak, bu çalışmada, ekonomi politikası belirsizlik endeksinin BIST'e kote olan imalat sektörü şirketlerinin kurumsal yatırım kararları üzerindeki etkisi ölçülmüştür. Bu amaçla, örneklem olarak Türkiye'de imalat sektöründe faaliyet gösteren 107 adet şirketin 2005 birinci çeyrek ve 2018 dördüncü çeyrek arasındaki mali verileri seçilmiştir. Çalışmada, panel veri analizi yapılmış ve Sabit Etkiler Modeli kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre ekonomi politikası belirsizliğinin imalat sektörü şirketlerinin kurumsal yatırım kararları üzerindeki etkisi zamanla değişmektedir. Kısa dönemde, bu etki istatistiksel olarak anlamsızken, orta vadede ekonomi politikası belirsizliğinin kurumsal yatırım kararları üzerindeki etkisi anlamlı ve negatiftir. Anlamlı ve negatif etki, Reel Opsiyon Teorisinin tahminlerini desteklemektedir. Ayrıca, sonuçlara göre ekonomi politikası belirsizliğinin yatırım kararlarına olan etkisi gecikmeli olarak ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu sonuç da Reel Opsiyonlar Teorisinin geri çevrilemezlik varsayımıyla ve yatırımların ileriye dönük olma özelliği ile aynı doğrultudadır. Yatırım kararlarını verenler, pozitif bir şokla karşılaştıklarında yatırım kararlarını askıya almaktadırlar ya da yatırımlardan vazgeçmektedirler. Bununla birlikte, ekonomi politika belirsizliğinin kurumsal yatırım kararları üzerindeki etkisi uzun vadede pozitife dönüşmüştür. --- The aim of this Ph.D. thesis is to investigate the impact of uncertainty on the corporate investment decisions of the BIST (Borsa İstanbul) - listed manufacturing firms. We used the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) as a proxy for uncertainty. To examine the impact of EPU on investment decisions, first, following the method of Baker et al. (2015), we developed a monthly news-based EPU index for Turkey over the period from February, 2000 to December, 2018. We used the digital archives of five leading Turkish newspapers to obtain data. The results show that the Turkish EPU index is affected by both domestic and foreign events. It rises mainly with elections and national political uncertainties. Second, we measured the impact of EPU on the corporate investment decisions of the publicly traded manufacturing firms. The sample consists of the quarterly financial statements of 107 BIST-listed manufacturing firms. The data period is from 2005 Q1 to 2018 Q4. We used balanced panel data analysis and estimated the regression equation parameters with fixed effects model. The results change with respect to time period. In the short-term, we observed that the impact of EPU on corporate investment decisions is insignificant. In the medium-term, as in line with the predictions of the real options theory, EPU has a negative and significant effect on the investment decisions of the BIST - listed manufacturing firms. The results also show that there is a time gap between decision to invest and realization of corporate investments. This finding is in line with the irreversibility assumption of real options theory and forward-looking feature of investments. When firms meet with a positive common shock in the investment environment, they tend to delay their investments or disinvest. Moreover, the results show that in the long-term, the effect of EPU on corporate investment decisions is positive.
Purpose: This study investigates how government grants influence the economic and social performance of companies benefiting from them. Literature in this topic indicates various results: according to some studies subsidies seem to improve company performance and profitability, while, according to others, they have a negative impact on long term productivity and growth. Government grants impact have been not extensively investigated in the tourism sector, especially regarding the economic and social performance of the hotels. This study aims to fill this research gap by analyzing tourism grants' impact on different small and medium enterprises - SMEs located in the metropolitan area of Cagliari (Sardinia) and furthermore to provide an evaluation of grants policies' outcome. Design/methodology/approach: The research questions are: Q1: Do tourism government grants improve the economic and social SMEs performance in the hospitality industry? Q2: Have tourism government grants proved to be effective and appropriate to the hospitality sector? The research shows an exploratory multiple case study conducted on five subsidized hotels, selected with a purposeful sampling process, which started from the three Sardinian major tourism public subsidies of the past decade. Economic grants impact has been measured by typical revenue management operating indicators in the hotel indus7 try such as occupancy rate, average revenue per room and revenue per available room, while subsidies' social impact has been evaluated with social indicators such as the human employment company level. The analysis compares the 3-year period which precedes and follows the grants. The use of a mixed methods research, both qualitative and quantitative, with tools such as questionnaires and interviews, also allowed a deep comprehension of subsidies' main characteristics and shortcomings. Findings: The study shows that positive economic performance seems not to depend exclusively on additional investment programs stimulated by subsidies. Nevertheless it is shown that, contrary to the conventional intertemporal substitution argument, taking advantage of grants provisions by anticipating investments, may not always have a negative impact on company performance. The study reveals that the more investment programs are sustainable and well-structured, the greater are the chances of the grants having a positive long term impact on companies' economic and social performance. Grants' negative impact on both economic and social performance seems to be linked to the lack of government supervision on the subsidized investment programs. Research limitation/implication: The study, which is only exploratory at this point, needs to be extended to more significant samples in the hospitality industry. The study shows that more of grants quality and more attention to the sector's real needs evaluation should be employed in order to provide more research evidence to detail both the exact impact of subsidies on corporate performance and the quality of public resources use. Practical implication: The research shows that financial assistance to tourism SMEs seems in part to be incoherent with the real regional needs. Subsidies have an impact on companies' economic and social performance and thus their provision should be the result of careful design from the point of view of both the sector's actors and the policy authorities. Originality/value: In this study a set of economic and social indicators of firm performance are employed and linked to qualitative information to better comprehend the perceived benefits and problems of regional tourism subsidies. The study provides the first empirical evidence of the impact of subsidies on hospitality businesses.
Die deutsche Konjunktur zeigt zur Jahresmitte 2013 keine eindeutige Tendenz. Zwar nahm im zweiten Quartal das BIP deutlich um 0,7% zu. Dies lag aber im Wesentlichen daran, dass der witterungsbedingte Produktionsausfall aus dem ersten Quartal nachgeholt wurde. Zwar sprechen zahlreiche Indikatoren dafür, dass Deutschland die wirtschaftliche Schwächephase des Winterhalbjahrs überwunden hat. Der Aufschwung dürfte aber vorerst verhalten sein und sich erst im kommenden Jahr beschleunigen. Getragen wird die Expansion vor allem von der Inlandsnachfrage. Die Unternehmensinvestitionen - die in den vergangenen beiden Jahren eher durch eine verbreitete Verunsicherung der Unternehmen als durch real- oder finanzwirtschaftliche Faktoren gedrückt wurden - werden bei sich aufhellendem weltwirtschaftlichen Umfeld und einer weiteren Entspannung der Situation im Euro-Raum wieder ausgeweitet. Auch die Bautätigkeit dürfte aufwärts gerichtet bleiben. Vor allem aber dürften die privaten Konsumausgaben steigen, da sich die Lohneinkommen wohl weiterhin spürbar erhöhen werden und mit besserer Konjunktur und allmählich steigenden Zinsen eine kräftigere Zunahme der Kapitaleinkünfte zu erwarten ist. Durch das günstigere weltwirtschaftliche Umfeld werden zwar auch die Exporte voraussichtlich kräftiger zunehmen als zuletzt. Da aber auch die Einfuhren kräftig steigen dürften, geht von der Außenwirtschaft nach einem leicht negativen Wachstumsbeitrag im Jahr 2013 im kommenden Jahr wohl ein nur leicht positiver Beitrag aus. Für das BIP prognostizieren wir eine Zunahme um 0,4% in diesem und um 1,9% im kommenden Jahr. Mit dem stärkeren Produktionsanstieg wird voraussichtlich auch die Erwerbstätigkeit zunehmen. Damit dürfte auch die Zahl der Arbeitslosen wieder abnehmen und die Arbeitslosenquote von 6,8% in diesem auf 6,7% im kommenden Jahr sinken. Die Teuerung dürfte im Prognosezeitraum leicht anziehen, weil es den Unternehmen mit steigender Kapazitätsauslastung wohl besser gelingen wird, Kostensteigerungen an ihre Kunden weiterzugeben. Zudem wird sich der zuletzt beschleunigte Anstieg der Immobilienpreise mehr und mehr in Mietsteigerungen bemerkbar machen. Alles in allem erwarten wir eine Inflationsrate von 1,6% in diesem und 1,8% im kommenden Jahr. Der Staatshaushalt wies 2012 einen kleinen strukturellen Überschuss auf. Auch für dieses Jahr entwickeln sich die Staatsfinanzen positiv. Trotz Mehrausgaben im Zusammenhang mit der Fluthilfe dürfte 2013 ein geringer Überschuss erreicht werden, der bei besserer Konjunktur auf reichlich 7 Mrd. € (0,3% des BIP) im kommenden Jahr steigen dürfte. Obwohl Deutschland damit drei Jahre in Folge einen strukturellen Haushaltsüberschuss erzielt, ist der Konsolidierungsprozess keineswegs abgeschlossen. Zum Teil ist der Überschuss dem niedrigen Zinsniveau und den dadurch relativ geringen Zinsausgaben zu verdanken. Mit künftig zu erwartenden steigenden Zinsen nehmen diese aber wieder zu. Auch trägt die 'kalte Progression' zur guten Finanzlage bei. Da rein inflationsbedingte Einkommenszuwächse die Leistungsfähigkeit der Steuerzahler nicht verbessern, sollte der Einkommensteuertarif so reformiert werden, dass diese Mehreinahmen künftig wegfallen. Schließlich wurde die Haushaltskonsolidierung in der Vergangenheit auch zu Lasten der öffentlichen Investitionen vorangetrieben. Hier besteht inzwischen Investitionsbedarf. Allerdings sollten höhere investive Ausgaben des Staates nicht durch Steuererhöhungen finanziert werden, sondern durch eine effizientere Mittelverwendung und Kürzungen insbesondere bei den Subventionen. Nicht zuletzt aufgrund des Versprechens der EZB, den Euro mit allen ihr zur Verfügung stehenden Mitteln zu verteidigen, hat sich die Lage an den Finanzmärkten beruhigt. Damit hat die EZB den nationalen Regierungen Zeit verschafft, um Strukturreformen voranzubringen und das Problem insolventer Banken anzugehen, die nur durch die großzügige Liquiditätszuteilung durch die EZB am Leben gehalten werden. Bisher wurde die so erkaufte Zeit aber nicht genutzt, um durch Reformen die EZB von ihrer Verantwortung zu entlasten, und so die Trennung von finanz- und geldpolitischer Verantwortung wieder herzustellen. Vielmehr hat die Beruhigung der Lage im Euro- Raum allem Anschein nach eher den Reformdruck vermindert. ; The German economy currently does not show clear signs where it is heading. As expected, GDP growth picked up substantially in Q2, but that was mainly due to catchup effects, as production in Q1 had been dampened by extraordinary cold weather. Several indicators suggest that Germany has overcome its recent weakness but the upswing is likely to remain modest this year and start accelerating only in 2014. Domestic demand will continue to be the main driver of GDP. Consumer spending will grow strongly as wages continue to rise and growth of capital income should also increase with stronger expansion of the overall economy and higher interest rates. As global prospects improve and the euro area shows signs of recovery, private investment should expand more rapidly as well. Net-exports on the other hand are unlikely to contribute much and even decrease slightly this year, as strong imports driven by domestic demand offset accelerating exports. GDP is expected to grow 0.4% this year and 1.9% next year. Production growth will lead to higher labour demand. The unemployment rate will decline from 6.8% this year to 6.7% next year. Inflation will pick up slightly due to higher capacity utilization and higher rents resulting from rising real estate prices. Inflation rates will average 1.6% this year and 1.8% in 2014. The public budget displayed a little surplus in 2012. Revenue growth has also been strong this year. In spite of unexpected payments related to the flood, a small surplus will likely be achieved again which should rise further to € 7 bn or 0.3% of GDP in 2014. Thus, the fiscal balance would show a structural surplus for the third year in a row.
Εισαγωγή: Η πολυνοσηρότητα ορίζεται ως η συνύπαρξη δύο ή περισσότερων χρόνιων ασθενειών. Καθώς το προσδόκιμο ζωής αυξάνεται, το ίδιο ισχύει και για τον επιπολασμό της πολυνοσηρότητας. Ο εντοπισμός των παραγόντων που σχετίζονται είτε με υψηλή είτε με χαμηλή πολυνοσηρότητα στον πληθυσμό είναι σημαντικός. Υπάρχουν περιορισμένες ενδείξεις σχετικά με τη συσχέτιση της Μεσογειακής διατροφής με την ύπαρξη πολυνοσηρότητας σε ένα άτομο. Οι στόχοι αυτής της διδακτορικής διατριβής ήταν: α) να εκτιμηθεί ο επιπολασμός της πολυνοσηρότητας στην Κύπρο και να εντοπιστούν οι πιο συχνές χρόνιες ασθένειες, β) να εξεταστεί η απήχηση της Μεσογειακής διατροφής στον ενήλικο γενικό πληθυσμό της Κύπρου και η σχέση της με την πολυνοσηρότητα, και γ) να υπολογιστεί η ποιότητα του ύπνου στην Κύπρο και να αξιολογηθεί η σχέση της με την πολυνοσηρότητα. Μέθοδοι: Η μελέτη ήταν συγχρονική και εφαρμόστηκε στρωματοποιημένη δειγματοληψία. Ένα αντιπροσωπευτικό δείγμα ατόμων άνω των 18 ετών ερευνήθηκε κατά την περίοδο 2018-2019 στις πέντε επαρχίες της Κυπριακής Δημοκρατίας που βρίσκονται υπό τον έλεγχο της Κυπριακής κυβέρνησης. Δημογραφικά στοιχεία, πληροφορίες για τη διατροφή, δεδομένα για την ποιότητα του ύπνου, το κάπνισμα και τη σωματική δραστηριότητα, καθώς και η παρουσία χρόνιων, κλινικών και ψυχικών ασθενειών συλλέχθηκαν χρησιμοποιώντας ένα επικυρωμένο ερωτηματολόγιο. Οι ασθένειες ταξινομήθηκαν σύμφωνα με τη διεθνή ταξινόμηση των ασθενειών, 10η αναθεώρηση (ICD-10). Αποτελέσματα: Η μέση ηλικία των 1140 συμμετεχόντων ήταν 41 ± 17 έτη, 56% από αυτούς ήταν γυναίκες, 76% ήταν κάτοικοι αστικής περιοχής, 54% ήταν παντρεμένοι, 64% είχαν ανώτερη εκπαίδευση και το 50% είχαν ετήσιο μέσο εισόδημα €6,500- €19,500. Ο τυποποιημένος ως προς την ηλικία και το φύλο επιπολασμός της πολυνοσηρότητας ήταν 28.6%. Η πολυνοσηρότητα σχετίζεται με την ηλικία (p <0.01), με το υψηλότερο ποσοστό να παρατηρείται σε άτομα ηλικίας 65 ετών και άνω (68.9%). Η πολυνοσηρότητα ήταν υψηλότερη στις γυναίκες παρά στους άνδρες (28.2% έναντι 22.5%, p <0.01), ενώ τα ποσοστά ήταν παρόμοια στις αστικές και στις αγροτικές περιοχές (26.4% έναντι 23.8%, p = 0.40). Οι πιο διαδεδομένες χρόνιες ασθένειες μεταξύ ατόμων με πολυνοσηρότητα ήταν η υπερλιπιδαιμία (44.7%), ακολουθούμενη από υπέρταση (37.5%), γαστρική παλινδρόμηση (23.9%) και ασθένειες του θυρεοειδούς (22.2%), ενώ οι πιο συνηθισμένοι συνδυασμοί ασθενειών ήταν στο κυκλοφορικό και ενδοκρινολογικό σύστημα. Το προφίλ του ατόμου με πολυνοσηρότητα δείχνει ένα άτομο μεγαλύτερης ηλικίας, με υψηλότερο δείκτη μάζας σώματος, που είναι καπνιστής και έχει υψηλότερο μισθό. Η μέση βαθμολογία της Μεσογειακής Διατροφής ήταν 15.5 ± 4.0 με τους άνδρες και τους κατοίκους των αγροτικών περιοχών να έχουν μεγαλύτερη συμμόρφωση στη Μεσογειακή Διατροφή σε σύγκριση με τις γυναίκες και τους κατοίκους των αστικών περιοχών, αντίστοιχα (p<0.05). Το να έχει ένα άτομο μεγαλύτερη συμμόρφωση στη Μεσογειακή Διατροφή σχετίζεται με χαμηλότερες πιθανότητες πολυνοσηρότητας και αυτό το αποτέλεσμα ήταν στατιστικά σημαντικό ακόμη και μετά την προσαρμογή των αποτελεσμάτων για την ηλικία, το φύλο, τις συνήθειες καπνίσματος και τη σωματική δραστηριότητα (OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.99). Η μέση βαθμολογία ποιότητας ύπνου των συμμετεχόντων ήταν 5 (q1=3, q3=7) με τη μέγιστη βαθμολογία να είναι 17. Οι γυναίκες, οι κάτοικοι της Πάφου και οι παντρεμένοι είχαν χαμηλότερη ποιότητα ύπνου (p <0.05). Η καλύτερη ποιότητα ύπνου συσχετίστηκε με χαμηλότερες πιθανότητες πολυνοσηρότητας, ακόμη και μετά την προσαρμογή για δημογραφικούς και κοινωνικοοικονομικούς παράγοντες καθώς και τρόπο ζωής (OR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.55, 3.16). Συμπεράσματα: Περισσότερο από το ένα τέταρτο του γενικού πληθυσμού της Κύπρου έχει πολυνοσηρότητα και το ποσοστό αυτό είναι σχεδόν 70% μεταξύ των ατόμων άνω των 65 ετών. Η πολυνοσηρότητα είναι σχετικά συχνή ακόμη και σε νεότερες ηλικίες. Η συμμόρφωση στη Μεσογειακή διατροφή και η καλύτερη ποιότητα του ύπνου σχετίζονται με χαμηλότερο κίνδυνο πολυνοσηρότητας. Τα αποτελέσματα της μελέτης υπογραμμίζουν την ανάγκη για στρατηγικές πρόληψης και προγράμματα ευαισθητοποίησης για την υγεία για ολόκληρο τον πληθυσμό. Προγράμματα πρόληψης και οδηγίες πρακτικής δημόσιας υγείας στην Κύπρο και αλλού θα πρέπει να λάβουν υπόψη τα παραπάνω αποτελέσματα και θα πρέπει να αναπτυχθούν κατευθυντήριες γραμμές για τη δημόσια υγεία υπογραμμίζοντας τη σημασία της τήρησης της Μεσογειακής διατροφής και της καλής ποιότητας του ύπνου και της συσχέτισης τους με την πολυνοσηρότητα. ; Introduction: Multimorbidity is defined as the co-existence of two or more chronic conditions. As life expectancy is increasing so does the prevalence of multimorbidity. Identifying the factors associated with the presence of multimorbidity is important. Furthermore, limited evidence exists on the association of Mediterranean Diet or of quality of sleep with the development of multimorbidity in an individual. The aim of this PhD dissertation work was: a) to estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity in Cyprus and identify the most prevalent diseases; b) to evaluate the level of adherence to the Mediterranean Diet in the adult general population of Cyprus and investigate its relationship with multimorbidity; and c) to assess the quality of sleep in Cyprus and examine its association with multimorbidity. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study and a stratified sampling procedure was implemented. A representative sample of individuals over 18 years old was surveyed during 2018-2019 in the five government-controlled municipalities of the Republic of Cyprus. Demographic data, dietary information, data on sleep quality, smoking, physical activity, stress, and quality of life, as well as the presence of chronic, clinical, and mental conditions were collected using a validated questionnaire. Diseases were classified according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10). Results: The mean age of the n=1140 participants was 41 ± 17 years old, 56% of them were women, 76% lived in an urban area, 54% were married, 64% had completed a higher education, and 50% had a yearly average income in the range €6,500 - €19,500. The age and sex standardized prevalence of multimorbidity was 28.6%. Multimorbidity was associated with age (p<0.01), with the highest rate observed among people aged 65 years old or older (68.9%). Multimorbidity was higher in women than men (28.2% vs. 22.5%, p<0.01) but similar in urban and rural regions (26.4% vs. 23.8%, p=0.40). The most prevalent chronic diseases among people with multimorbidity were hyperlipidemia (44.7%), followed by hypertension (37.5%), gastric reflux (23.9%), and thyroid diseases (22.2%), while the most common combinations of diseases were in the circulatory and endocrine systems. The profile of the multimorbid individual indicated this to be a person at an older age, with a higher BMI, being a current smoker, and having a higher salary. The average Mediterranean Diet score was 15.5 ± 4.0 with men and residents of rural regions being more adherent to the Mediterranean Diet, compared to women and residents of urban regions, respectively (p<0.05). Being in the higher tertile of adherence to the Mediterranean Diet was associated with lower odds of multimorbidity, compared to the lower tertile, and this result was statistically significant even after adjusting for age, sex, smoking habits, and physical activity (adjusted OR=0.68, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.99). The median Pittsburgh Sleep Quality score of the participants was 5 (q1=3, q3=7) with the maximum score being 17. Women, residents of Paphos, and married people had a poorer quality of sleep (p<0.05). Having a better quality of sleep was associated with lower odds of multimorbidity, even after adjusting for demographics, socioeconomic and lifestyle factors (adjusted OR=2.21, 95% CI: 1.55, 3.16). Conclusions: More than one quarter of the general population of Cyprus has multimorbidity, and this rate is almost 70% among the elderly, with multimorbidity being relatively common even in younger ages too. Adherence to the Mediterranean Diet and better quality of sleep were associated with lower risk of multimorbidity. The results of the study underline the need for prevention strategies and health awareness programs for the entire population, including in relation to dietary and sleeping habits. Prevention programs and public health guidelines in Cyprus and elsewhere should take these results into account and public health guidelines should be developed in regards to the importance of adherence to the Mediterranean Diet and good quality of sleep, highlighting their association with multimorbidity. Further research on multimorbidity should be carried out, including in specific subgroups of the population. ; Completed
ABSTRACTToday, many companies use strategies to deal with competition by marketing through promotion, especially through advertising. In order for the delivery of messages through advertisements to be accepted by consumers, there is a need for media as a tool, such as print media, radio, television, internet to social media so that it makes it easier for companies to convey messages and can be accepted by consumers well, with the help of appropriate communicators, namely celebrity endorsers as the medium for delivering messages from the product. The use of celebrity supporters who are currently popular as communicators is the main choice in advertising to influence people to make purchasing decisions. This study aims to test whether visibility, credibility, attraction and power have an effect on the decision to purchase a smartphone Realme type C15 in Pontianak City. The population in this study is the public (consumers) who have seen the Realme type C15 smartphone advertisement in Pontianak City, while the sample used is 100 respondents with purposive sampling technique. Collecting data in this study using an online questionnaire filled out by parties who meet the requirements. The questionnaire has been tested and has met the validity and reliability requirements. Data analysis using multiple linear regression and hypothesis testing. The results of multiple linear regression analysis and hypothesis testing show that the variables visibility, credibility, attraction and power have a positive and significant effect on purchasing decisions.Keywords: Visibility, Credibility, Attraction, Power and Purchase DecisionDAFTAR PUSTAKAAbdianur, A., & Sukimin, S. (2018). Celebrity Endorser (Bintang Iklan) Sebagai Komunikasi Pemasaran Terhadap Keputusan Membeli Oli Fastron Di Kota Balikpapan. Jurnal GeoEkonomiISSN-Electronic (e): 2503-4790, 5-28. Adisasmita, R. (2013). Teori-Teori Pembangunan Ekonomi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Pertumbuhan Wilayah. Yogyakarta: Graha Ilmu. Anwar, S. (2011). Metode Penelitian Bisnis, Salemba Empat, Jakarta Ariani, Y.P. (2010). Analisis Pengaruh Pandangan Iklan, Kredibilitas Iklan, Daya Tarik Iklan dan Kekuatan Iklan terhadap Minat Beli (Studi Kasus Terhadap Pengguna Sepeda Motor Matic Merek Honda Vario di Kota Semarang). Skripsi. Semarang: Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Diponegoro Semarang. Arikunto, S. (2010). Prosedur Penelitian Suatu Pendekatan Praktik. Jakarta: Rineka Cipta. Azwar, S. (2008). Penyusunan Skala Psikologi. Yogyakarta: Pustaka Pelajar Batra, R., et al. (1996). Advertising Management, 5th edition. New Jersey: Prentice Hall International edition. Belch., et al. (2009). Advertising and Promotion: an Integrated Marketing Comunication Prerspective (8th ed). New York: Mc Graw-Hill. BukaReview, (30 Juli 2020), Spesifikasi dan Harga Realme C15, HP Rp2 Jutaan dengan Baterai Jumbo. darihttps://review.bukalapak.com/gadget/spesifikasi-harga-realme-c15-112493 Fildzah, N.A., & Sari.D. (2017). Pengaruh Celebrity Endorser dan Word Of Mouth Terhadap Keputusan Pembelian Produk Swater Online Shop Alco Di Media Sosial Instagram. Ekonomi, Bisnis & Entrepreneurship, 2(11), 99-112. Ghozali, I. (2013). "Aplikasi Analisis Multivariate dengan Program IBM SPSS 21". Semarang: Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro. Hartono. (2004). Statistik untuk Penelitian. Yogyakarta: Pustaka Pelajar. Ifeanichukwu, C. D (2016). Effect of Celebrity Endorsements on Consumers Purchase Decision in Nigeria. International Research Journal of Management, IT & Social Science, 9(3), 120-128. Kerlinger, F. N. (1973). Founding Of Behavior Research, Holt. New York: Rinchart and Winston Inc. KliknKlik, Pengertian Smartphone, diakses (2009), PT Portal Biz Nusantara darihttps://kliknklik.com/content/66-pengertian-smartphone Kotler, P. (2005). Manajemen Pemasaran. Jilid 1 dan 2. Jakarta: PT Indeks Kelompok Gramedia. Kotler, P., & Keller, K.L. (2012). Manajemen Pemasaran Jilid I Edisi ke 12. Jakarta: Erlangga. Kotler, P., & Amstrong, G. (2012). Principles of Marketing. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc. Lombo, V.E.P., & Tielung, M.V.J. (2014). The Impact of Celebrity Endorsementto Youth Consumer Purchase Decision on Adidas Apparel Product. EMBA, 3(2), 1246-1254. McCracken, G. (1989). Who Is the Celebrity Endorser? Cultural Foundations of the Endorsement Process. Journal of Consumer Research, (16), 310-32. Muslim, I.S. (2012). Pengaruh Dimensi Celebrity Endorser terhadap Citra Merek (Studi pada Iklan Mie Sedaap Versi Edwin Lau pada Mahasiswa Ilmu Rumpun Kesehatan Universitas Indonesia). Skripsi. Depok: Fakultas Ilmu Sosial Dan Ilmu Politik, Departemen Ilmu Administrasi, Program Sarjana Reguler, Program Studi Ilmu Administrasi Niaga, Universitas Indonesia. Nugroho, J. S. (2003). Perilaku Konsumen Konsep dan Implikasi untuk Strategi dan Penelitian Pemasaran. Jakarta: Kencana. Oktafiani, R., & Silaningsih, E. (2015). Pengaruh Celebrity Endorser Terhadap Keputusan Pembelian Kartu Perdana XL Di Kota Bogor. Jurnal Visionida, 2(1), 45-58. Percy, L., & Rosenbaum, R. (2012). Strategic Advertising Management (4th ed.). England: Oxford University Press. Priyatno, D. (2012). Belajar Cepat Olah Data Statistik Dengan SPSS. Yogjakarta: Andi Offset. Priyono. (2016). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif. Sidoarjo: Zifatama Publishing. Rossiter, John R. & Larry Percy (1997), Advertising Communications and PromotionManagement, Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill, second edition. Rossister, J. R., & Percy, L. (1997). Advertising Communication and Promotion Management. Boston: McGraw-Hill, Second edition. Rossister, J.R., & Percy, L. (1985). Advertising Communication Models. Advances in Consumer Research, (12), 510-524. Royan, F.M. (2004). Marketing Celebrities: Selebriti dalam Iklan dan Strategi Selebriti Memasarkan Diri Sendiri. Jakarta: PT. Elex Media Komputindo. Royan, F.M. (2005). Sales Force (Meningkatkan Penjualan Dengan Rancangan Bangun Sales Force Effective). Yogyakarta: Penerbit Andi. Santoso, S. (2012). Statistic Parametic. Jakarta: PT Gramedia Pustaka Umum Schiffman, L & Kanuk, L.L. (2007). Consumer Behaviour 7 th. Edition. (Perilaku Konsumen). Jakarta: PT. Indeks. Selular.id, (19 Mei 2020), IDC: Top 5 Brand Smartphone di Indonesia Q1-2020 dari https://selular.id/2020/05/idc-top-5-brand-smartphone-di-indonesia-q1-2020/ Sekaran, U., & Roger B. (2017). Metode Penelitian untuk Bisnis: Pendekatan Pengembangan-Keahlian, Edisi 6, Buku 2. Jakarta: Salemba Empat. Shimp, Terence A. (2007). Advertising, Promotion, and Other Aspects of Integrated Marketing Communications. USA: Thomson Higher Education. Sukmawati, A., & Suyono, J. (2005). Analisis Pengaruh Karakteristik Bintang Idola Iklan (Celebrity Endorser) Terhadap Minat Beli Konsumen Sebuah Merek Multivitamin (studi kasus pada Mahasiswa Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Sebelas Maret Surakarta). Fokus Manajerial, 1(3), 21-32. Sumarwan, U. (2003). Perilaku Konsumen: Teori dan Penerapannya dalam Pemasaran, Cetakan Pertama, Jakarta: Ghalia Indonesia. Sugiarto, Y.S. (2012). Pengaruh Celebrity Endorser terhadap Minat Beli Konsumen (Studi Kasus pada Produk Mie Sedap) Skripsi. Salatiga: Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana, Salatiga. Sugiyono. (2017). Metode Penelitian Bisnis Pendekatan Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, Kombinasi, dan R & D. Bandung: Alfabeta. Suryadi, D. 2006. Promosi Efektif Menggugah Minat dan Loyalitas Pelanggan. Yogyakarta: Tugu Publisher. Sutisna, (2003). Perilaku Konsumen dan Komunikasi Pemasaran, Cetakan Ketiga. Bandung: PT. Remaja Rosdakarya. Swastha, B. (2002). Manajemen Pemasaran. Edisi Kedua. Cetakan Kedelapan. Jakarta: Penerbit Liberty Swastha, B., & Sukotjo, I. (2007). Pengantar Bisnis Modern edisi 3. Yogyakarta: Liberty Yogyakarta. Swastha, B. (2007). Manajemen Pemasaran Modern. Yogyakarta: Liberty Offset. Superwiratni (2018). Pengaruh Celebrity Endorsement Terhadap Keputusan Menginap Di Cottage Daarul Jannah. Toursim and Hospitality Essentials Journal, 2(8), 99-110. Tjondrokoesoemo, M. (2017). Celebrity Endorser Terhadap Keputusan Pembelian. Manajemen dan Star-Up Bisnis. 3(2), 287-295. Tjiptono, F. (2012). Pemasaran Jasa. Jogjakarta: Penerbit Andi. Tribun Jogja News, REALME C15 Kenalkan Syifa Hadju & Iqbaal Ramadhan sebagai Brand Ambassador, diakses (30 April 2020), dari https://jogja.tribunnews.com/2019/04/30/realme-3-pro-kenalkan-syifa-hadju-iqbaal-ramadhan-sebagai-brand-ambassador Ujang, S. (2004). Perilaku Konsumen Teori dan Penerapannya dalam Pemaasaran. Bogor: Ghalia Indonesia. Umar, H. (2013). Metode Penelitian untuk Skripsi dan Tesis. Jakarta: Rajawali Warren, K. J., & Mark, G.C. (2017). Global Marketing. 9th Edition. Harlow: Pearson Education Limited. Wikipedia. Iqbaal Ramadhan - Wikipedia bahasa Indonesia. Diakses (8 September 2020), dari https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iqbaal_Ramadhan Wikipedia. REALME – Wikipedia Bahasa Indonesia. Diakses (25 Agustus 2020), dari https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realme Yusiana, R., & Maulida, R. (2015). Pengaruh Gita Gutawa Sebagai Brand Ambassador Ponds Dalam Mempengaruhi Keputusan Pembelian (Studi Kasus Pada Mshasiswi Universitas Telkom Jurusan D3 MAnajemen Pemasaran). Ecodemica, 1(3), 311-316. Zahra, R.R., & Rina, N. (2018). Pengaruh Celebrity Endorser Hamidah Rachmayanti Terhadap Keputusan Pembelian Produk Online Shop Mayoutfit DI Kota Bandung. JURNAL LONTAR, 1(6), 43-53.
ABSTRACTToday, many companies use strategies to deal with competition by marketing through promotion, especially through advertising. In order for the delivery of messages through advertisements to be accepted by consumers, there is a need for media as a tool, such as print media, radio, television, internet to social media so that it makes it easier for companies to convey messages and can be accepted by consumers well, with the help of appropriate communicators, namely celebrity endorsers as the medium for delivering messages from the product. The use of celebrity supporters who are currently popular as communicators is the main choice in advertising to influence people to make purchasing decisions. This study aims to test whether visibility, credibility, attraction and power have an effect on the decision to purchase a smartphone Realme type C15 in Pontianak City. The population in this study is the public (consumers) who have seen the Realme type C15 smartphone advertisement in Pontianak City, while the sample used is 100 respondents with purposive sampling technique. Collecting data in this study using an online questionnaire filled out by parties who meet the requirements. The questionnaire has been tested and has met the validity and reliability requirements. Data analysis using multiple linear regression and hypothesis testing. The results of multiple linear regression analysis and hypothesis testing show that the variables visibility, credibility, attraction and power have a positive and significant effect on purchasing decisions.Keywords: Visibility, Credibility, Attraction, Power and Purchase Decision DAFTAR PUSTAKAAbdianur, A., & Sukimin, S. (2018). Celebrity Endorser (Bintang Iklan) Sebagai Komunikasi Pemasaran Terhadap Keputusan Membeli Oli Fastron Di Kota Balikpapan. Jurnal GeoEkonomiISSN-Electronic (e): 2503-4790, 5-28. Adisasmita, R. (2013). Teori-Teori Pembangunan Ekonomi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Pertumbuhan Wilayah. Yogyakarta: Graha Ilmu. Anwar, S. (2011). Metode Penelitian Bisnis, Salemba Empat, Jakarta Ariani, Y.P. (2010). Analisis Pengaruh Pandangan Iklan, Kredibilitas Iklan, Daya Tarik Iklan dan Kekuatan Iklan terhadap Minat Beli (Studi Kasus Terhadap Pengguna Sepeda Motor Matic Merek Honda Vario di Kota Semarang). Skripsi. Semarang: Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Diponegoro Semarang. Arikunto, S. (2010). Prosedur Penelitian Suatu Pendekatan Praktik. Jakarta: Rineka Cipta. Azwar, S. (2008). Penyusunan Skala Psikologi. Yogyakarta: Pustaka Pelajar Batra, R., et al. (1996). Advertising Management, 5th edition. New Jersey: Prentice Hall International edition. Belch., et al. (2009). Advertising and Promotion: an Integrated Marketing Comunication Prerspective (8th ed). New York: Mc Graw-Hill. BukaReview, (30 Juli 2020), Spesifikasi dan Harga Realme C15, HP Rp2 Jutaan dengan Baterai Jumbo. darihttps://review.bukalapak.com/gadget/spesifikasi-harga-realme-c15-112493 Fildzah, N.A., & Sari.D. (2017). Pengaruh Celebrity Endorser dan Word Of Mouth Terhadap Keputusan Pembelian Produk Swater Online Shop Alco Di Media Sosial Instagram. Ekonomi, Bisnis & Entrepreneurship, 2(11), 99-112. Ghozali, I. (2013). "Aplikasi Analisis Multivariate dengan Program IBM SPSS 21". Semarang: Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro. Hartono. (2004). Statistik untuk Penelitian. Yogyakarta: Pustaka Pelajar. Ifeanichukwu, C. D (2016). Effect of Celebrity Endorsements on Consumers Purchase Decision in Nigeria. International Research Journal of Management, IT & Social Science, 9(3), 120-128. Kerlinger, F. N. (1973). Founding Of Behavior Research, Holt. New York: Rinchart and Winston Inc. KliknKlik, Pengertian Smartphone, diakses (2009), PT Portal Biz Nusantara darihttps://kliknklik.com/content/66-pengertian-smartphone Kotler, P. (2005). Manajemen Pemasaran. Jilid 1 dan 2. Jakarta: PT Indeks Kelompok Gramedia. Kotler, P., & Keller, K.L. (2012). Manajemen Pemasaran Jilid I Edisi ke 12. Jakarta: Erlangga. Kotler, P., & Amstrong, G. (2012). Principles of Marketing. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc. Lombo, V.E.P., & Tielung, M.V.J. (2014). The Impact of Celebrity Endorsementto Youth Consumer Purchase Decision on Adidas Apparel Product. EMBA, 3(2), 1246-1254. McCracken, G. (1989). Who Is the Celebrity Endorser? Cultural Foundations of the Endorsement Process. Journal of Consumer Research, (16), 310-32. Muslim, I.S. (2012). Pengaruh Dimensi Celebrity Endorser terhadap Citra Merek (Studi pada Iklan Mie Sedaap Versi Edwin Lau pada Mahasiswa Ilmu Rumpun Kesehatan Universitas Indonesia). Skripsi. Depok: Fakultas Ilmu Sosial Dan Ilmu Politik, Departemen Ilmu Administrasi, Program Sarjana Reguler, Program Studi Ilmu Administrasi Niaga, Universitas Indonesia. Nugroho, J. S. (2003). Perilaku Konsumen Konsep dan Implikasi untuk Strategi dan Penelitian Pemasaran. Jakarta: Kencana. Oktafiani, R., & Silaningsih, E. (2015). Pengaruh Celebrity Endorser Terhadap Keputusan Pembelian Kartu Perdana XL Di Kota Bogor. Jurnal Visionida, 2(1), 45-58. Percy, L., & Rosenbaum, R. (2012). Strategic Advertising Management (4th ed.). England: Oxford University Press. Priyatno, D. (2012). Belajar Cepat Olah Data Statistik Dengan SPSS. Yogjakarta: Andi Offset. Priyono. (2016). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif. Sidoarjo: Zifatama Publishing. Rossiter, John R. & Larry Percy (1997), Advertising Communications and PromotionManagement, Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill, second edition. Rossister, J. R., & Percy, L. (1997). Advertising Communication and Promotion Management. Boston: McGraw-Hill, Second edition. Rossister, J.R., & Percy, L. (1985). Advertising Communication Models. Advances in Consumer Research, (12), 510-524. Royan, F.M. (2004). Marketing Celebrities: Selebriti dalam Iklan dan Strategi Selebriti Memasarkan Diri Sendiri. Jakarta: PT. Elex Media Komputindo. Royan, F.M. (2005). Sales Force (Meningkatkan Penjualan Dengan Rancangan Bangun Sales Force Effective). Yogyakarta: Penerbit Andi. Santoso, S. (2012). Statistic Parametic. Jakarta: PT Gramedia Pustaka Umum Schiffman, L & Kanuk, L.L. (2007). Consumer Behaviour 7 th. Edition. (Perilaku Konsumen). Jakarta: PT. Indeks. Selular.id, (19 Mei 2020), IDC: Top 5 Brand Smartphone di Indonesia Q1-2020 dari https://selular.id/2020/05/idc-top-5-brand-smartphone-di-indonesia-q1-2020/ Sekaran, U., & Roger B. (2017). Metode Penelitian untuk Bisnis: Pendekatan Pengembangan-Keahlian, Edisi 6, Buku 2. Jakarta: Salemba Empat. Shimp, Terence A. (2007). Advertising, Promotion, and Other Aspects of Integrated Marketing Communications. USA: Thomson Higher Education. Sukmawati, A., & Suyono, J. (2005). Analisis Pengaruh Karakteristik Bintang Idola Iklan (Celebrity Endorser) Terhadap Minat Beli Konsumen Sebuah Merek Multivitamin (studi kasus pada Mahasiswa Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Sebelas Maret Surakarta). Fokus Manajerial, 1(3), 21-32. Sumarwan, U. (2003). Perilaku Konsumen: Teori dan Penerapannya dalam Pemasaran, Cetakan Pertama, Jakarta: Ghalia Indonesia. Sugiarto, Y.S. (2012). Pengaruh Celebrity Endorser terhadap Minat Beli Konsumen (Studi Kasus pada Produk Mie Sedap) Skripsi. Salatiga: Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana, Salatiga. Sugiyono. (2017). Metode Penelitian Bisnis Pendekatan Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, Kombinasi, dan R & D. Bandung: Alfabeta. Suryadi, D. 2006. Promosi Efektif Menggugah Minat dan Loyalitas Pelanggan. Yogyakarta: Tugu Publisher. Sutisna, (2003). Perilaku Konsumen dan Komunikasi Pemasaran, Cetakan Ketiga. Bandung: PT. Remaja Rosdakarya. Swastha, B. (2002). Manajemen Pemasaran. Edisi Kedua. Cetakan Kedelapan. Jakarta: Penerbit Liberty Swastha, B., & Sukotjo, I. (2007). Pengantar Bisnis Modern edisi 3. Yogyakarta: Liberty Yogyakarta. Swastha, B. (2007). Manajemen Pemasaran Modern. Yogyakarta: Liberty Offset. Superwiratni (2018). Pengaruh Celebrity Endorsement Terhadap Keputusan Menginap Di Cottage Daarul Jannah. Toursim and Hospitality Essentials Journal, 2(8), 99-110. Tjondrokoesoemo, M. (2017). Celebrity Endorser Terhadap Keputusan Pembelian. Manajemen dan Star-Up Bisnis. 3(2), 287-295. Tjiptono, F. (2012). Pemasaran Jasa. Jogjakarta: Penerbit Andi. Tribun Jogja News, REALME C15 Kenalkan Syifa Hadju & Iqbaal Ramadhan sebagai Brand Ambassador, diakses (30 April 2020), dari https://jogja.tribunnews.com/2019/04/30/realme-3-pro-kenalkan-syifa-hadju-iqbaal-ramadhan-sebagai-brand-ambassador Ujang, S. (2004). Perilaku Konsumen Teori dan Penerapannya dalam Pemaasaran. Bogor: Ghalia Indonesia. Umar, H. (2013). Metode Penelitian untuk Skripsi dan Tesis. Jakarta: Rajawali Warren, K. J., & Mark, G.C. (2017). Global Marketing. 9th Edition. Harlow: Pearson Education Limited. Wikipedia. Iqbaal Ramadhan - Wikipedia bahasa Indonesia. Diakses (8 September 2020), dari https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iqbaal_Ramadhan Wikipedia. REALME – Wikipedia Bahasa Indonesia. Diakses (25 Agustus 2020), dari https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realme Yusiana, R., & Maulida, R. (2015). Pengaruh Gita Gutawa Sebagai Brand Ambassador Ponds Dalam Mempengaruhi Keputusan Pembelian (Studi Kasus Pada Mshasiswi Universitas Telkom Jurusan D3 MAnajemen Pemasaran). Ecodemica, 1(3), 311-316. Zahra, R.R., & Rina, N. (2018). Pengaruh Celebrity Endorser Hamidah Rachmayanti Terhadap Keputusan Pembelian Produk Online Shop Mayoutfit DI Kota Bandung. JURNAL LONTAR, 1(6), 43-53
[SPA] El turismo rural comunitario (TRC) es un tipo de turismo que se encuentra en auge en Latinoamérica, con una especial característica consistente en que son las propias comunidades rurales las que lideran dichos proyectos turísticos, que no suponen el centro de su desarrollo socioeconómico, sino un complemento a sus actividades rurales tradicionales. Es además un medio que dichos colectivos utilizan para ir mejorando su dotación de recursos naturales y culturales, implicando importantes beneficios sociales para la población local, como la reducción de la pobreza, la fijación de la población en su territorio, la valorización de las tradiciones culturales propias, y la promoción y empoderamiento social de colectivos más frágiles en el mundo rural, tales como las mujeres y los jóvenes. En este sentido, el TRC se convierte en un medio muy relevante para la sostenibilidad de las comunidades rurales que consolida y promociona su manera de vivir, ayuda a recuperar su medio ambiente, y abre sus comunidades a visitantes respetuosos con el entorno que buscan conocer cómo viven estas gentes en entornos rurales tradicionales. El objetivo de la tesis es básicamente aprender de los proyectos de TRC que están llevando a cabo las comunidades rurales del Oeste de Nicaragua desde hace ya más de 15 años, en especial en lo relativo a las cuestiones de sostenibilidad turística. Para ello se aplica un enfoque basado en la dimensión socio-cultural del proceso, lo que aporta una visión novedosa del mismo y sienta las bases para un desarrollo futuro de esta literatura muy nueva en el sector del turismo y la gestión de proyectos. Con este objetivo, se realiza un estudio empírico de campo sobre dichas comunidades rurales, contactando con sus líderes en un principio al objeto de identificar los aspectos más relevantes de estos proyectos de TRC. Posteriormente, con dicha información se diseñan unos cuestionarios amplios y se pasan a una muestra de la población rural de manera que aporten la información de base del conjunto de la investigación de la Tesis Doctoral. Con esta información, se han construido básicamente dos bloques de la investigación. Tras una primera introducción en el capítulo primero sobre el contexto de análisis del TRC y sus propias características en las comunidades del Oeste de Nicaragua, el capítulo segundo se centra en la identificación de la idea de comunidad como la variable clave que promociona y coordina todo el proceso de lanzamiento de los proyectos de TRC, confiriendo además la sostenibilidad al conjunto del proyecto, desde dimensiones sociales, culturales, respeto al entorno y consolidación de la vida rural comunitaria como objetivo final de todos los proyectos de TRC de esta zona. En un tercer capítulo, este enfoque se amplía incluyendo algunas otras piezas clave del proceso de desarrollo del TRC, como son el liderazgo y la contribución de los gobiernos nacional y local en la generación de un marco legal de gobernanza nacional para la sostenibilidad turística, así como mediante la provisión de las necesarias infraestructuras y apoyo técnico y en capacitación para las comunidades rurales y sus habitantes. En todo momento se identifica así mismo la necesidad de contar con capital humano, experiencia y recursos por parte de la comunidad rural como condición necesaria para el inicio de cualquier proyecto de TRC exitoso y sostenible. Como resultado de dicho apoyo público y de cooperación con las comunidades rurales en el inicio y durante el desarrollo de los proyectos de TRC, se observan en este capítulo tercero algunos efectos relevantes del propio TRC, como son la promoción y empoderamiento social de las mujeres rurales, y a través de esta vía, la generación de importantes beneficios económicos, culturales, sociales y en el patrimonio natural de la población local. Tras estos dos capítulos se incluyen las principales conclusiones y recomendaciones de la Tesis Doctoral, en línea con los propios resultados de la misma. La Tesis incluye en su metodología dos modelos teóricos y su contrastación empírica mediante técnicas de Modelos de Ecuaciones Estructurales (SEM en su aceptación inglesa), a través del uso del software Smart PLS 3.2, estando además redactada en idioma inglés y contando con una publicación del capítulo segundo en el International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management (Q1 en JCR-SSCI en Management), lo que le confiere un valor añadido a la investigación que aquí se presenta. [ENG] Community-based Rural Tourism (RCT) is a type of tourism significantly growing in Latin America, with a special characteristic that the rural communities themselves are leading these tourism projects, not being the core of their community income sources, but a complement to their traditional rural activities. These activities also help rural communities to improve their stocks of natural and cultural resources, involving important social benefits for the local population, such as poverty reduction, the fixation of the population in their territory, the appreciation of their own cultural traditions, and the promotion and social empowerment of weaker groups in the rural world, such as women and young people. In this sense, RCT becomes a very relevant mean for the sustainability of rural communities that consolidates and promotes their way of life, helping to recover their environment, and opening their communities to friendly visitors who seek to know how these people live at their traditional rural environments. The objective of this PhD Thesis is basically to learn from the RCT projects that are being carried out by the rural communities of Western Nicaragua for more than 15 years now on, in what regards to tourism sustainability issues. To this end, an approach based on the socio-cultural dimension of the process is applied, which provides a novel vision of the process and lays the foundation for the future development of this very new literature in the field of tourism and project management. With this objective, an empirical field study is carried out on these rural communities, contacting their leaders at first in order to identify the most relevant aspects of these RCT projects. Subsequently, searching for the information basis for the Thesis, extensive questionnaires are designed and a sample of the rural population is taken so that they can provide the work field information for the present Doctoral Thesis research. The research includes basically two research blocks: After an introduction in the first chapter on the context of the RCT projects and related characteristics for the West of Nicaragua, the second chapter focuses on the identification of "the community" construct as the key variable in the promotion and coordination of the whole process, and in the end the key piece conferring sustainability to the whole project from the social and cultural dimension, in environmental terms, and in regards to the consolidation of the rural community life, this being its final objective of the RCT projects developed. In a third chapter, the approach is extended to include some other pivotal pieces of the RCT process, including the relevant leadership of national and local governments in the generation of a governance legal framework for tourism sustainability, as well as through the provision of the needed infrastructure and technical and training support for rural communities and their inhabitants. Besides, the presence of human capital, experience and resources of rural communities and local population is identified as a necessary condition for the launching of any successful and sustainable RCT project. As a result, some relevant effects emerging from rural tourism experiences are presented along this third chapter, like the process of social empowerment of rural women, and through this, the generation of important economic, cultural, social and environmental benefits arising for and spreading through the entire local population. After these two chapters, the main conclusions and recommendations of the doctoral thesis are presented, synthetizing the main results of the investigation. The PhD Thesis also accounts for relevant methods of analysis, and develops two theoretical original models and their empirical estimates, through Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) techniques, and using the Smart PLS 3.2 software. The Thesis is written in good English language, reaching a paper from the second chapter in the International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management (Q1 in JCR-SSCI in Management), giving an added value to the research. ; Escuela Internacional de Doctorado de la Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena ; Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena ; Programa de Doctorado en Ciencias Económicas, Empresariales y Jurídicas
Novel strategies with NRTIs‐sparing regimen in antiretroviral naïve HIV‐infected patients are currently used in clinical trials [1]. We previously presented preliminary results of this study [2] and here we present the 48‐weeks final results. Prospective, open‐label, randomised (1:1), multicenter, proof‐of‐concept trial. HIV‐infected naïve patients were assigned to once daily maraviroc (MVC) plus lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) or to tenofovir/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) plus LPV/r. Objectives of the study were the 48‐weeks virological and immunological efficacy. Data were collected at baseline (BL) and at 4, 12, 24, 36 and 48 weeks. T cell subsets from frozen peripheral blood mononuclear cells collected at BL, 4 and 48 weeks were also evaluated. ANOVA for repeated measures performed and Greenhouse‐Geisser probabilities calculated. Results reported as median (Q1–Q3) or frequency (%). Fifty patients (26 in MVC group and 24 in TDF/FTC group) were enrolled and reached week 48. Similar BL characteristics were observed in the two study groups; age: 39.1 (34.2–44) years, 2/50 (4%) females, infected since 2.9 (0.8–5.3) years, CD4+ nadir 266 (242–315) cells/µL, BL CD4+ 295 (260–369) cells/µL; CD4% 18.6 (14.6–23), HIV‐RNA 4.4 (3.9–4.8) log10 copies/mL. At W48, all patients in MVC group and 22/24 (96%) in TDF/FTC group had HIV‐RNA<50 copies/ml (p=0.225). CD4+ trend during follow‐up was different between the two groups (p=0.046) with a higher CD4 gain of 286 (183–343) vs 199 (125–285) cells/mL in MVC and TDF/FTC, respectively (p=0.033). In MVC vs TDF/FTC group, we observed a higher expression of CCR5+CD4+ T cells [W48 change: +7.5% (−4.5/11) vs −5.4 (−15.1/−0.5), p=0.016] and a higher increase of CD4+ effector memory [W48 change: +1.6% (0.7/4.8) vs ‐4.4 (−13.5/−0.2), p=0.007]. No significant variations in naïve and central memory CD4+ T cells. Treatment was well tolerated, without grade 3 or 4 adverse events. No significant difference between the two groups as for the 48‐weeks trend of bone marrow function, AST, ALT and CPK values, creatinine value, glicyde profile (fasting glucose, fasting insuline) and lipid profile (total cholesterol, LDL and HDL cholesterol, tryglicerides). Results are shown in Table 1. In naïve‐patients, virological efficacy and tolerability of a NRTIs‐sparing regimen with maraviroc and lopinavir/ritonavir was similar to conventional treatment in addition to a better immunological recovery, in particular of the Effector Memory CD4+ cells subset.
Not Available ; Biofuels are being supported by many governments for a range of perceived benefits including improved domestic energy security, reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when compared to fossil-fuel counterparts, and economic development and employment generation, particularly in rural areas. Life-cycle, cost-benefit and systems analyses, however, indicate that the expansion of biofuels can have complex effects on, and interactions with, land-use and food and fuel prices. This paper reviews the economic, environmental and social benefits and costs of biofuels using experiences from developing countries in Asia. The review reveals the following: (1) Biofuels are generally not economically competitive with fossil fuels and government support, though prevailing, is costly and questionable. (2) Although biofuels are generally viewed to be a threat to food security, if properly managed, their development could lead to improved productivity in the agriculture sector over the long-term with benefits for rural livelihoods and food security. (3) Even though reducing GHG emissions is a key driver for the development of biofuels, effects in terms of Gheewala S*, Damen B & Shi X, 2013. Biofuels: economic, environmental and social benefits and costs for developing countries in Asia. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change (Q1), 4(6):497-511. 2 soil quality, biodiversity and water quality must also be assessed; the environmental benefits of biofuels are debatable and depend on a range of fuel-specific factors, management and agricultural practices. Based on this assessment a range of strategies are suggested to further improve the sustainability of biofuels in Asia. Liquid transportation fuels produced from agricultural products, commonly referred to as biofuels (or agrofuels), are being promoted in many countries worldwide due to a number of perceived benefits. These benefits can accrue to the economy from the utilization of local resources leading to reduced imports of crude in oil-importing countries; to the environment due to reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, renewability and biodegradability; and to society from rural development, poverty alleviation and improved energy access 1-3 . Many of the above benefits are particularly attractive to developing nations in Asia as they have a large agriculture base and many are also increasingly net importers of energy to fuel their rapidly growing economies. Thus, many countries in the region have already implemented ambitious targets and/or mandates to promote biofuels 4-8 . To support these commitments, governments have adopted or are considering a range of supplementary policies including price support for biofuels and feedstock production, tax advantages at both production and consumption stages, capital grants and/or loans and funding for research and development. In response, biofuels in Asia have been booming following the global boom that began in 2004-2005 and the associated demand from the US and EU markets. Total production of biofuels in Asia for the transport market has increased three fold from 1.5 billion litres in 2005 to an estimated 6.3 billion litres in 2012 9 . However, the pace of growth has declined since 2008 due to a combination of factors including the global financial crisis, higher commodity and feedstock prices and a plateau of biofuel production in China – the largest producer in the region. The slowing pace of biofuel production for the transport market in Asia has mirrored a global slowdown in biofuel output and comes at a time of increasing scrutiny over the purported sustainability benefits of biofuels. Utilization of local resources has been supplemented by imported fossil fuels and feedstock in the value chain negating some of the domestic security benefits of reductions in energy imports while also increasing GHG emissions. Reduction in GHGs has been further confounded by large emissions of carbon from land use change, especially those with large carbon stocks such as tropical forests or peatlands 10-13. Also, after decades of slow decline in food prices, recent surges on international markets and unprecedented levels of food price volatility, have prompted further investigation into the role that biofuels could have played in these developments 2, 14, 15. Thus, it is imperative to evaluate the experiences of biofuels in developing Asia and their sustainability implications, positive and negative, with the objective to identify the conditions under which positive effects could be maintained or enhanced and negative effects minimized. To this end, we take a look at each of the expected sustainability benefits of biofuels and based on plans as well as reported performance, evaluate the advantages, drawbacks and possibilities of improvement. 3 The paper contributes to the literature by providing a comparative assessment of the rationale behind government policy support for biofuels in Asia with documented evidence of their performance to date and associated economic, socio-economic and environmental costs and benefits. Based on this assessment some suggestions to enhance the benefits of biofuels in the region are made. The review proceeds as follows: following the introduction, the next section briefly summarizes a few key motivations and benefits behind the promotion of biofuels. Sections 2 to 4 review issues of biofuels from economic, social and environmental perspectives, respectively. Section 5 reviews some measures for improving the sustainability of biofuels. The last section offers some concluding remarks. ; Not Available
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The monetary policy program at the Mercatus Center recently released a new measure called the NGDP gap. We created it as an alternative way to gauge the stance of monetary policy and have provided a website that will update the measure as new data become available. In this post, I will briefly summarize the NGDP Gap and then highlight a few extensions that some readers may find useful.
Summary of the NGDP Gap
As mentioned above, the NGDP Gap provides a cross check on the stance of monetary policy. Its use does not require the Fed to adopt a NGDP target, but it does draw upon the fact that NGDP is comprised of both real GDP and the price level and therefore captures both elements of the Fed's dual mandate. Moreover, since NGDP is a nominal variable it can be shaped by the Fed over the medium to long run.
The basic idea behind this measure is to construct a benchmark growth path for nominal GDP (NGDP) where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. Deviations of actual NGDP from this neutral level of NGDP provide a way to assess the stance of monetary policy. These deviations, in percent form, are called the NGDP gap.
The NGDP gap can also be called the nominal income gap since NGDP equals NGDI. In fact, the construction of the neutral level of NGDP can be most easily understood from a nominal income perspective. To see this, consider that people make many economic decisions based on forecasts of their nominal incomes. Examples include households' decisions to take out mortgages and car loans or firms' decisions to finance with debt and commit to multiyear contracts on plants, raw materials, and labor. Sometimes, however, actual nominal incomes may turn out very different from what people expected and, as a result, may be disruptive for households and firms that are not able to quickly adjust their economic plans. These disruptions can be minimized by maintaining nominal income on the growth path expected by the public.
The neutral level of NGDP, then, is the public's expected growth path of nominal income. Both this measure and the NGP Gap are shown below up through 2020:Q1 and come from a NGDP Fact Sheet we will be publishing each quarter.
To be clear, non-zero NGDP gap outcomes need not be the result of Fed policy but of monetary conditions more generally. For example, the current NGDP gap exists because of the severe nominal income shortfall that has emerged from the COVID-19 shock. Consequently, the job of the Fed and U.S. Treasury during this crisis is to close this gap and avoid the secondary spillover effects (e.g. mass insolvency) this shortfall could create. Failure to close it would indicate a failure of countercyclical policy. This measure, then, provides a useful guide for the economic relief efforts during the pandemic.
Extension I: Blue Chip Forecast Version
A key goal of this project was to provide a measure that is relatively simple to calculate and uses publicly available data. To that end, the neutral level of NGDP is based off of forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and BEA data on NGDP. There is no use of r-star or u-star and therefore no "navigating by the stars" in this measure. The neutral level of NGDP is just an averaging of NGDP level forecasts from accessible data sources. Below is the formula for the neutral level of NGDP:
where NGDPt* is the neutral level and NGDPt-iSPF forecast(t) are NGDP level forecasts for period t coming from the past 20 quarters. NGDPt*, in short, is just a rolling average of NGDP level forecasts for a particular period. The difference between it and actual NGDP is the NGDP gap.
Given the five-year (20 quarter) window in creating NGDPt*, there is a need for long-term NGDP forecasts. They are available in the SPF, but begin only in 1992 and therefore limit our series to a start date of 1997.
The Blue Chip forecast database provides a long-term NGDP forecast that goes back further than the SPF. Alexander Schibuola and Andrew Martinez (2020) use it to construct an even longer time series of the NGDP gap. It is shown in the figure below along with the SPF version we use at Mercatus. The two NGDP gaps are very similar.
Interestingly, Schibuola and Martinez use the data to construct a forecasted NGDP gap and it is disturbingly large. Even the recovery looks nasty.
The use of Blue Chip data is a nice extension of the NGDP gap. However, we still plan to use the SPF version as our baseline version since the data is free and we can show the underlying calculations to the public. Eventually, we plan to provide the Blue Chip version as a complement to our baseline SPF version, but since it uses proprietary data only the final measure will be available.
Extension II: Precision Version
Schibuola and Martinez also provide another useful extension of the NGDP gap that looks at its precision. They motivate this by noting two potential issues: (1) the forecasters in the SPF sample change over time and (2) individual forecasts in the SPF may be very different. Accounting for these two issues they produce the following chart that shows the range of individual forecasts for a semi-fixed sample of forecasters in the SPF.
The median of the semi-fixed sample provides a very similar result to the overall median of all the forecasters. Also, the range of forecasts provides a way to better think about the stance of monetary policy. For example, one could make the case that monetary policy was neutral in 2019 since the range of estimates span both sides of 0 percent.
Extension III: NGDP Targeting Application
As noted above, the use of the NGDP gap does not require the adoption of a NGDP target by the Fed. Nonetheless, a closer look at the forecasts used in constructing the neutral level of NGDP reveal that it could be used by the Fed as the target growth path for a NGDP target. For it would amount to a NGDP level target that slowly changes the target NGDP growth path based on changes to forecasts of potential real GDP.
To see why this is the case, note that we use a combination of short-run and long-run forecasts of NGDP to construct the neutral level estimate of NGDP. The SPF provides distinct quarterly NGDP forecasts for five quarters out: t+1 to t+5. After that, we use the average annual NGDP forecast over the next 10 years adjusted to a quarterly basis for quarters t+6 to t+20. This is seen in the table below.
What this means is that three-fourths of each NGDP neutral level estimate is being shaped by a long-term forecast of NGDP. This long-term forecast, in turn, is the sum of a 10-year average GDP deflator inflation forecast and a 10-year average real GDP growth rate forecast. The long-term inflation forecast is determined by the Fed's inflation target while the long-term real GDP growth rate forecast is shaped by expected changes in the potential real GDP growth rate.
Consequently, as the neutral level of NGDP series moves through time, it can be seen as a rolling average of expected changes to potential real GDP growth plus the Fed's inflation target. This is the kind of NGDP level target some advocates, like Jeff Frankel, would like to see implemented.
The figure below shows the neutral level of NGDP constructed with the Blue Chip data, complements of Schibuola and Martinez. This version allows us to see a hypothetical NGDP level target from late 1987 to present based on the neutral level measure of NGDP.
Again, the original intent of the neutral level of NGDP and the NGDP gap is simply to provide a crosscheck against other measures of the stance of monetary policy. The discussion of a NGDP level target is simply an extension of this work.
Here's hoping, though, that the Fed and Treasury keep this measure front and central in their efforts to provide economic relief during the COVID-19 crisis.
This essay continues with a discussion concerning the intersection between indigenous technological adoption/adaptation and the range of perspectives with respect to local communities' use of technology in general. Analytical instruments will be presented at the end of this article. First, however, the reader will have the opportunity to examine the 'views' of outsiders with respect to the debate surrounding sustainability, environmental management and territorial ordering. Responses to an on-line survey concerning the above issues together with my own comments, will add to the discussion. ; Gestión ambiental; Ordenamiento Territorial; Sostenibilidad; TIC; Usos ; 1 TECHNOLOGY IN NORTHWEST AMAZONIA (NWA) VIEWS OF VIEWS: SUSTAINABILITY, ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT AND TERRITORIAL ORDERING A contribution to a Political Ecology for Northwest Amazonia1 This essay continues with a discussion concerning the intersection between indigenous technological adoption/adaptation and the range of perspectives with respect to local communities' use of technology in general2. Analytical instruments will be presented at the end of this article. First, however, the reader will have the opportunity to examine the 'views' of outsiders with respect to the debate surrounding sustainability, environmental management and territorial ordering. Responses to an on-line survey concerning the above issues together with my own comments, will add to the discussion. Aims Initially there were two aims behind the construction of a website. One of was to overcome impediments to my personal mobility and direct access3. ICT facilitated communications with other interested people and helped solicit their views on indigenous management of the forest and their opinions with respect to the process of territorial ordering in Amazonia. The other aim was to serve the process of opening up political opportunities for NWA's inhabitants. Grassroots organisations all around the globe were (and are) establishing links through ICT. The indigenous peoples of Amazonia may attempt the same and this experience could, in the future, be an instrument of education for NWA. The introduction of such technology among indigenous peoples, if possible, will have impacts, which will to be judged as positive or negative, depending of the political interests of the observer and the moment of observation. It is argued here, that despite there being no indisputable positive or negative effects of technological transfer, it would be contrary to indigenous people's rights to self-determination to prevent the promotion of ICT among them. We wish to question conservative forces: if governments, corporations, NGOs and even international drug dealers and terrorist groups are using ICT to fortify their political positions, why should indigenous peoples be denied access to it? The access (or lack of it) of grassroots organisations to ICT facilitates (or impedes) the 1 The author wishes to thank: Jim Connor and Mark Bennett of Imperial College, the former for his advice on the use of Arcview-GIS and the latter for helping to write the cgi-script form for the website. Thanks are also due to: Stuart Peters from the University of Surrey for training in Web- Page design; Adriana Rico from Páginas.Net for valuable advice during the design process and Alvaro Ocampo for a detailed critique of Kumoro.com before it went live. I also wish to thank the Board of Puerto Rastrojo Foundation, which gave me permission to use their vegetation map as a base for the Yaigojé vegetation map that appears on the web-site. Finally thanks to all the people that took the time to fill out the on-line survey. Their contributions made this chapter possible. 2 This discussion was introduced in "Technology in Northwest Amazonia: Sketches from Inside" (Forero 2002b). 3 A restriction of one of the scholarships the author was granted as well as guerrilla incursions at the time, prevented the author from going back to NWA. 2 development of their rights to be informed (and educated) in accordance with the actual historical context of a globalising corporate economy and cultural hybridisation. For indigenous peoples, as well as for other ethnic minorities, financial resources to set up ICT are extremely limited compared to those of corporations, governments and even NGOs. The establishment of an ICT network for indigenous peoples' organisations in NWA remains a Utopia. But without a Utopian vision there is no aim for social mobilisation; this is something that was underlined by responses to the on-line survey. Fieldwork in NWA involved the author in the territorial ordering process, helping with the formation of indigenous people's organisations, and getting involved in communities' economic and educational projects. My work in NWA can thus be characterised as participatory action research (PAR) and one way of continuing to engage in PAR without going back to the field was to set up a website, wait for an opportunity to share my experience with the people of NWA and promote projects that would allow them to take over the website and use it for their own projects4. Deconstruction of an Internet generated discourse Elsewhere the author has dealt with descriptions and deconstructions of discourses of indigenous and institutional organisations, be they NGOs, churches, governmental or international. This process of deconstruction has included the author's own work among indigenous organisations and NGOs, which was one of the aims of "Indigenous knowledge and the scientific mind: activism or colonialism?" (Forero 2002a). I wish to explain the inclusion of governmental and non-governmental organisations within the category 'institutional'. There are great differences as well as important coincidences in governmental actions and the work of NGOs in developing countries due to the limited nature and poor quality of State-driven action in such nations. E.g. in Colombia, COAMA, the largest NGO network in NWA, has been involved in the political administrative reforms, and served as a consultant in matters of education, health and sustainable production. Furthermore, COAMA staff accompanied indigenous peoples in all these processes and without their intervention it is doubtful that many of the indigenous political organisations of Amazonia would ever have succeeded in their quest for legal recognition5. NGOs and governmental institutions may pursue similar political aims and share administrative structures. Inasmuch as small organisations are successful, (and usually this success is a result of strong personal commitment to a cause and personal knowledge of all members of the organisation), they tend to obtain more funds, which in turn forces them to become increasingly bureaucratic. As 4 At the time of writing (May 2002) the author was preparing to visit NWA at the invitation of indigenous leaders, including the Co-ordinator of an education committee who wanted to discuss the roll of ICT in education. 5 See Forero, Laborde et al. 1998 and the interview with the director of COAMA Martín von Hildebrand, in The Ecologist 2002 (Vol. 32 No.1-February). 3 organisations grow, individual members have fewer opportunities to get to know each other personally and maintain an accordance of principles, aims and political means. This is not to say that NGOs are condemned to be inefficient bureaucratic institutions, (which is not uncommon among developing countries' governmental institutions). But it is important to draw attention to the risk that when resources are pumping in and recruitment is growing there is more chance of becoming detached from grassroots sensibilities with respect to issues and less chance of correctly interpreting local developmental idioms. Views of Indigenous Environmental Management The design, production and publishing of a website on the development of a political ecology for NWA, taking the Yaigojé Resguardo as a study case, may seem a very simple task with little impact. But it proved to be a very delicate matter that involved exhausting work. The production of a map of the Yaigojé Resguardo, (which was to be included on the website) has been explained elsewhere, although it is worth mentioning something about the methodology involved. The author accompanied shamans (who were selected by indigenous leaders from the Apaporis) on several trips in which all the recognised sacred places of the Apaporis River and some of its tributaries where identified. The shamans learn the names of the places during their training. These names are recited in myths, chants and spells. The shamans carry, as they say, the map within themselves. It is impressive to see these men point to a place and give its name without hesitation. It is like this even when they have never been in that place before. It is impressive that this orally transmitted geography corresponds so precisely to the physical aspects that start to become relevant for people who, like the author, have different epistemological instruments for their interpretations of the world. While visiting the sacred places shamans spoke of trips they had made previously. In the case of shamanistic trips, visits did not actually involve physical journeys, but what were referred to as trips en pensamiento, en espíritu (in thought, in spirit). While accompanying them I recorded the geographical co-ordinates using a satellite guided geographical positioning system (GPS). The geographical co-ordinates thus generated were converted to plane co-ordinates and a map was generated using AUTOCAD software. Translations, drawings and reflections about this map-making process are included in a MSc thesis of the University of Warwick (Forero 1999). The work I will describe now, although partially derived from my work with the shamans is distinct in character and intention from that reported in Forero (1999). The use of technological gadgetry allowed me partially to reflect the Tukano world in a way that non-indigenous people could understand. And although this was a significant and, I believe, useful undertaking the real knowledge of the territory lies within the shamans with whom I worked. The fact that the 'indigenous territorial' aspects of the website are illustrated with maps is a by-product of the technology. A more significant value of the work (and the reason behind the shamans' wish to become involved in mapping) is that the maps were going to provide evidence for the legal process through which the ACIYA 4 indigenous organisation would claim rights over lands outside the recognised Resguardo Indigenous Reserve (Forero, Laborde et al. 1998). This work was successful and an extension to the Resguardo was indeed granted. Work on the website began by making a provisional outline of the desired end product. The original plan included six pages: Introduction (Home), vegetation map, traditional territorial map, discussion (an introduction to the political ecology of the Yaigojé Resguardo), bibliography (for those looking for references to NWA and the Yaigojé in particular), and a questionnaire that would generate the information from which this chapter has been developed6. The contrasting discourses obtained from the questionnaires Although I shall refer to percentages in this section, there is no intention of making any predictions based on statistical analyses. Neither is it suggested that the analysis of questionnaires can provide an objective account of outsiders' opinions with respect to the politics of the environment and people of NWA. The following notes are not representative in that sense and such was never the intention of the exercise. What is intended is that the reader gets an insight into the perceptions of survey respondents. What is important in a qualitative data analysis, like this, is to present differential tendencies. If discourses are constituents of reality then the confusing scenario of political confrontation in NWA should be linked to the visions and perspectives of all of us, including the views of people that have never been in Amazonia but nonetheless hold an opinion. And, if there is a marked difference between indigenous and exogenous perspectives with respect to sustainability and environmental management in Amazonia, which relates to whether people have visited NWA or not, this should be reflected in the answers to the surveys. The information generated from the on-line survey was collected between May and December of 2001. Eight hundred invitations were sent through e-mail. They were sent mainly to academics and organisations working on indigenous issues, conservation or sustainable development in NWA. One of these invitations reached COLNODO7 and the ICT network asked if we wished to submit the website in a weekly contest for the best new website, which we did and subsequently won! This meant that COLNODO subscribers were notified and invited to visit the site. But we have no idea how many hits were derived from COLNODO invitation. What we know is that during these 8 months we received 51 completed survey forms. This is a 6.4% response rate to the original 800 invitations8. 6 The survey form is in Appendix 1and, a summary of the technical work involved in the construction of the web-site is in Appendix 2. 7 "COLNODO is a Colombian communications network serving organizations dedicated to community development. It is operated by the non-profit organization called Colombian Association of Non-Governmental Organizations for Email Communication" (http://www.colnodo.org.co/summary_english.html). For a critical review of COLNODO work the interested reader could consult Gómez, R. 1998. 8 This response rate is rather low relative to postal questionnaire surveys, but we are unable to assess it relative other on-line surveys. 5 For the purposes of the analysis respondents (R) were divided into two groups: those claiming to have visited NWA (VA – 29% of R) and those claiming not to have visited the region (NVA – 71% of R). With respect to occupation, 68% of R come from the academic sector, including five anthropologists (almost 10% of R) all of whom had visited NWA. In contrast, although there were the same number of environmental managers as anthropologists answering the questionnaire, none had visited NWA. With respect to gender, the percentage of male (53%) and female (47%) respondents is similar across both VA and NVA groups. In terms of age, there were four groups: 1) 18 to 24, 2) 25 to 34, 3) 35 to 50, and 4) over 50. For R the percentages were: 8%, 47%, 35% and 10% respectively. The majority of respondents belong to the second group, between 25 to 34 years of age. However with respect to age groups the composition of VA and NVA groups differs: 56% of the NVA group belong to this second age cohort (25-34), while the majority of the VA group (47%) is between 35 and 50. Additionally, 13% of the VA group are over 50. 61% of the NVA group are between 18 and 34 years of age, while 60% of those that have visited Amazonia are over 35. A comparison of age among the survey respondents thus shows that those that have visited Amazonia (VA) tend to be older than those that have not (NVA). To distinguish among the views held by survey respondents we have to present the responses to each of the questions of the survey. We have made some associations of responses with the intention of outlining the different tendencies that we identify, but the reader might identify others. Before we do so a word about the view of respondents with respect to the website itself should be said. Website evaluation An evaluation of the web-site made by users was included in the questionnaire. Respondents were asked to rate the site between four categories: poor, fair, good and excellent. These categories were chosen as follows: 0, 2, 32 and 15 respectively. Two of the respondents did not offer a rating for the site. Additionally, respondents had the opportunity to suggest improvements. Some respondents suggested changes in design: modification of fonts and colours (some changes had already taken place). There were those who asked for more pictures, a photo album, more links and the construction of a chat room. With respect to the content, some wanted more ethnographic data, another more on political ecology, others asked for better visibility of the maps, while others called for additional links to related sites, and/or more information in general. One suggestion was to make the website less personalised, while another expressed interest in knowing more about the author's research project. Others asked for an enhanced bibliography. Some changes had already taken place by the time these comments were analysed but further changes are still being undertaken at the time of writing. With respect to the questionnaire, two people suggested larger windows to facilitate vision and to be able to comment largely, in contrast, another suggested encouraging more 'yes/no' responses. An important suggestion was: "Perhaps it is now appropriate to include some questions on communication 6 and information flows" (S52). Although not sought explicitly, information was gathered with respect to the use of ICT in the territorial ordering process of Amazonia. One of the respondents suggested that in future the website should be used by indigenous peoples of the Yaigojé. This has been the intention of the author, which has made a visit to Yaigojé (summer 2002) with intention to advance in that direction. Access to ICT for the indigenous peoples of the Yaigojé Resguardo is very limited but present. Future modification of the site will respond to indigenous peoples' feedback. During the visit few indigenous people gave their opinions on the website but several discussions on the roll of ICT in developmental processes took place9. Q1 - Are development and sustainability compatible? A clear response to Question 1 was that this depends on the definition of both terms: "It is impossible to answer this question as it is, as both terms are open to interpretation… " (S26). The question could have been and was read as: Is sustainable development attainable? Respondent S26 continued: "I think sustainable development is possible but hard to achieve in an environment of often conflicting interests and values (economic vs. environmental vs. cultural.)… " One respondent (S22) did not answer this particular question, and two others seemed to be confused (S38 and S41). Forty respondents (78% of R) answered that they were or could be compatible, although there are differences in the way they perceived this compatibility. Development first There were few respondents that failed to question the meaning of 'development' as concept or practice: the developmental project. These responses somehow postulated that certain environmental concerns should be acknowledged and dealt with in order for the development processes to continue: "Yes… . Development as the integration of western technologies or increase of income per capita, can be carefully done by implementing appropriate technologies into the productive activities of the communities. Sustainability defined as a continuous productivity level over the long term." (S2); "Yes. It is only a question of integration of environmental considerations in all we do and adjustment of behaviours accordingly." (S12); "Yes, because there can never be sustainability without development. People have, first to develop for them to have a sense of sustainability." (S13); "Yes, I do. The point is how you can reach a determinate "state" of development without undermining financial, ecological and human capacities in a determinate site (or taking into account their characteristics)." (S40) SD: human - environmental security There were others that perceived the compatibility or the possibility of sustainable development as the chance to diminish human/environmental security risks: "Yes of course in the long run - otherwise life is not possible." (S18); 9 The author is currently preparing a report that will summarise some of these discussions. 7 "Yes. Both are necessary for the survival of the area." (S21); "Si. Solo las acciones en el hoy nos pueden garantizar acciones en el mañana. (Yes. Only by taking action now we can guarantee we could act tomorrow)." (S23); "Yes, development should always be sustainable otherwise there are costs that are not taken into account. i.e. cost of pollution" (S39); "We don't have any choice. We have to make development and sustainability compatible as it's the only way we can survive and at the same time preserve the earth for future generations." (S42) Pessimism, in the sense that without SD life will no longer be possible, was to be repeated in the responses to all of the survey questions. Sustainability is an aim The majority of the respondents that believed development and sustainability to be compatible or capable of becoming compatible, were also of the opinion that the goal of sustainable development had not yet been achieved. Some of them discussed requisite conditions for achieving sustainability. They either underlined the importance of accepting sustainability as a guiding principle for development policy and interventions or/(and) exemplified ways in which sustainable practices might be instituted: "They have to be. I think they are because they have to be. I am optimistic that eventually it will be seen as natural to have sustainable development, but the problem is when this attitude kicks in." (S3) "Depends on how you define the two terms. If you mean that human quality of life can improve while maintaining the natural resource base, I think this is possible but very difficult to achieve." (S5) "Yes, but development in qualitative and not in quantitative terms." (S8) "Yes… there can be sustainable development in an ecological sense of the word - which means installing 'best ecological practice' in planning development." (S24) "No solo lo creo sino que estoy seguro que ambos pueden ser compatibles. Un desarrollo sin considerar ciertos indicadores de sustentabilidad/ sotenibilidad no es posible o viceversa. Uno y otro deberan de ir al parejo tratando de limar los conflictos que a menudo surgen cuando se pretende no un desarrollo pero un crecimiento economico sin considerar la parte social/cultural o ecologica. (Not only I believe that the two can be compatible, I am certain. Development without considering certain indicators of sustainability is impossible or vice versa. Both should go hand in hand, trying to solve the social, cultural and ecological problems that often arise when economic growth rather than sustainable development is the goal)." (S 25) "Sim, no alto rio Negro onde trabalho a ideia e essa: implementar um programa regional de desenvolvimento indedgena sustentado. (Yes, in the Upper Black River, where I work, the idea is precisely to implement a regional programme for sustainable indigenous development)" (S29) "Yes they are. The problem is with the material and energy growth and its compatibility with some environmental standards, like critical thresholds and so on." (S35) "Yes. The only way is by avoiding rapid over-development and having good planning."(S37) ".El concepto de desarrollo sostenible lo veo mucho mas como algo a lo que se quiere llegar, es una nocion implementada por parte de las politicas gubernamentales y ong's donde lo que se 8 procura con estos es el aprovechamiento al maximo de los recursos con un minimo impacto ambiental y social. (I see the concept of sustainable development as goal towards which we heading. It is an idea implemented through governmental and non-governmental policies which aim at maximum exploitation of resources with a minimum of environmental and social impacts)." (S48) "Yes, because they represent the best option to keep for human life." (S51) The need for local definitions Among the respondents that considered sustainability and development compatible if certain conditions were met, there is group of responses that emphasised the need for local definitions of 'sustainability' and 'development', or 'sustainable development': "They can be compatible providing that development is targeted at the right level i.e. small scale and in-keeping with the natural resources and environment." (S5) "Depende de las condiciones y del desarrollo para quién? Por lo tanto el desarrollo es sostenible si es buscado y logrado por la misma comunidad local (It depends on the conditions and on the question 'Development for whom'? Development can only be sustainable if it is sought and implemented by the local community itself)" (S20) "Yes but mainly if made through indigenous methodologies in their territories in Amazonia" (S27) "Yes. There is work done in northern Scandinavia where the "sammi" (lapps) have been given economical support and encouraged to create their own parliament. They have programs protecting their way of life, language and customs. The Norwegian broadcasting company NRK sends news in the language and coastal dialects. All this, at least for Norwegian sammi (lapps) has been key factors in late developments where communities have developed economically achieving great sustainability, contributing, not only to their well being, but to the sustainability of the inhospitable sub-artic regions." (S31) "Yes - but only if there is an 'appropriate' deployment of tools, techniques and processes of development in line with local community needs." (S52) Semantics and the economic imperative Interestingly, one respondent was very pessimistic about the possibilities for sustainable development even when it was sought and pursued at the local level. This respondent brought into the equation the idea that people are driven by monetary benefits to deplete their environment, even though they know that such practices are unsustainable: "To a certain degree, yes. I think that monetary considerations will always outweigh humanitarian concerns and it is very hard to convince people who are seeking a living from sometimes-meagre resources that it is in their own good to give consideration to long-term sustainable use of their resources. It is usually easier and cheaper to move on to the next area when one area has been depleted." (S17) This last argument derives from a rationality that considers poor people to be collaborators in their own misery. In this particular response there was no questioning of the developmental project or the social structures within which people are stimulated to act regardless of the future; but it did address 'monetary considerations' as the driving force. 9 Those responses that argued that the concepts are incompatible claimed an intrinsic contradiction in "sustainable development": "Development of any kind cannot sustain anything." (S4). Instead of blaming the people (needy or not), the proponents of incompatibility pointed their fingers at 'the system'; contemporary capitalist structures, the current developmental project and the prevailing economic model are seen as unavoidably contrary to sustainable practices: "No because development is premised upon economic gain, and capitalism is inherently unsustainable" (S10); "The problem with sustainability is that the economic model is not compatible with social, economic and ecological aspects at the same time and proportion. The neo-liberal model promotes the economic aspect leaving as secondary the social and ecological." (S19); "No, because development does not imply a recognition of limits or the necessity to preserve the natural and human resources used to achieve it. It is an economic concept, which has bases in the apparently unlimited uses of resources… " (S47); "… Si lo entemos [desarrollo] como crecimiento economico, por supuesto que no son compatibles. Ya que el crecimiento economico, tal y como lo plantean los economistas, excluye de raiz criterios sociales, culturales y ambientales requeridos para la sustentabilidad." (If we understand development as economic growth, of course they [sustainability and development] are not compatible. This is because economic growth, as economist have brought it up, excludes from its bases the environmental, cultural and social requirements of sustainability)" (S34) S.D. inconsistent with the present There are less radical rejections of the compatibility, which do not portray sustainable development as a contradiction itself but rather as inconsistent with current economic and ecological trends. The point such respondents make is that the necessary conditions for sustainable development are currently, rather than inherently unattainable: "… The current model of industrial development, where 'development' means material economic growth, is unlikely to be sustainable on a long term basis for the majority of the world population." (S1) "Present development of our world is clearly not sustainable" (S33) "Yes, they are compatible. But in a different social and economic order, not in the one the world is living now… " (S36) "Yes, if we change the way development is understood, for instance, development is associated to living styles resembling to those Europe and USA have, which are a lot related to consumption. But we could live in a healthier and more compatible way with our environment if we change our pattern of consumption and the generalised idea of development nowadays, it would be turning it into "only use what I need and get from nature, exclusively this, not until I just can't get anymore from it", 'cause I over pressed the place, to obtain more benefits. So, at last, this could be possible but in the long term, I hope not when there's nothing left to do." (S45) 10 Greening politics Some responses expressed doubts about the compatibility of sustainability and development. These doubts arise from the apparent use of "sustainability" as a green rhetoric, the aim of which is the continuation of projects that degrade the environment or human rights: ". usually development translates into cutting down natural habitats without regard to "sustaining" cultures" (S32); "In theory 'yes' but much depends on the definition of the terms and societies' acceptance of equal human rights and obligations to others." (S7) "Los conceptos de desarrollo y de sostenibilidad resultan ser bastantes amplios y ambiguos. En la mayoria de los casos cuando se plantean proyectos de desarrollo se trata de relacionarlos directamente con proyectos que resulten ser favorables para el medio ambiente. Como si un concepto llevara implicito otro, sin embargo creo que lo que se esta haciendo desde hace algunos años es precisamente disfrazar los proyectos de desarrollo para que sean aprobados bajo el nombre de mantenimiento del medio ambiente." (The concepts of sustainability and development are very ambiguous. In the majority of cases, there is an attempt to portray development projects as environmentally friendly[, a]s if one concept implied the other. However, I believe that what has been happening for the last few years is a camouflaging of development projects, in order to get them approved under the heading of environmental management) (S48). Reflections on responses to Q110: If "all development is not 'absolute' but will have a beginning and an end" (S24) then, "[d]evelopment of any kind cannot sustain anything." (S4). The impossibility of re-establishing high quality energy after it has been transform into low quality energy (or entropy) is a characteristic feature of closed systems, this would leave us with a world in decline where there is no possibility of sustaining anything. It could be argued that this is the case, as we cannot even guarantee perpetual solar energy flow. But this is perhaps taking the concept of sustainability too far, leaving us with no possibility for discussion. The central political discussion arising from the different responses revolves around the contradiction between those arguments of compatibility that leave the development project unquestioned and those that reject any possibility of compatibility because of a profound questioning of development. Between the two, the picture is blurred, undefined, open and elusive. There does not appear to be any significant correspondence between the two opposite groups of respondents in relation to whether they have been in Amazonia or not. Three out of five of the respondents claiming that there is absolutely no compatibility between development and sustainability have been in Amazonia; but so have two out of four of the respondents that left the development project unquestioned. However, it may be of some significance that none of those that accepted 'sustainable development' are related to social sciences. Those respondents with academic backgrounds in the social sciences all fit into groups 10 A schematic summary can be found in Table 1, Appendix 3. 11 that see sustainable development as a principle, something to be defined locally or as a reformist greening of politics. None of them were found in the group arguing for absolute incompatibility. The middle ground, where the picture is most blurred, came from the majority of respondents by whom it was argued that sustainable development may be possible but that they were unsure about how it might be achieved. Although these responses varied from those expressing suspiciousness (those pointing out the rhetoric of sustainability) to hope: "They have to be. I think they are because they have to be". This acceptance of a possibility of sustainable development, despite the semantic contradiction and current political rhetorical manipulation of the term, reflects a process of thinking and acting that is deeply rooted in Utopian beliefs. This 'sustainability' will happen in the future, in another time, when local communities take control of their lives and their resources, when environmental protection is taken seriously, when today's actions reflect our responsibility toward the future, etc. According to one of the respondents even continuous increases in productivity will be possible, when the proper technology has been developed. Q2 - Is there a relationship between indigenous reserves (IR) and protected areas (PA)? In Colombia IR are called "Resguardos Indígenas" or "Resguardos de Tierras". The term resguardo, literally means protection. Its meaning is not too different from that given to natural conservation areas of different grades: áreas protegidas, protected areas (PA). Both, IR and PA, emphasise the need for an area to be specially protected. Some of the respondents of this question pointed out an implicit relationship between IR and PA perhaps departing of this meaning: "… In a general sense, indigenous reserves are protected areas; they are protected from outside influence for the benefit of the indigenous people… " (S1); "Yes there are relationships. Both have natural systems and environmental quality that requires some level of conservation and protection" (S9); "Yes , for obvious reason. Because the protected reserves are a birth child of indigenous reserves and because we do not want to lose the nature environment the relationship should be maintained." (S13); "Yes, indigenous reserves are protected areas" (S28) As in the case of Q1 (Do you think that development and sustainability are compatible?) some respondents pointed out that it would depend on what we understand by the two terms: "Depends on the sort of protected area or what we mean with protected area… " (S25). "There could be" (S38); "It could be, but I am not sure" (S46); "… this has to be context specific" (S1). Five respondents simply said "yes" (S37, S18, S22, S43, S50) and one simply said "no" (S15). However many of the respondents did go on to qualify the relationship in some way. 12 Harmony or the need for it Some of the affirmative responses portrayed indigenous peoples as the guardians of the environment while others offered concrete examples of this viewpoint: "Si. Las culturas indigenas han demostrado que sus culturas han vivido armonicamente con su entorno durante miles de años" (Yes. Indigenous peoples have demonstrated that their cultures have lived in harmony with their environment during millennia). (S23); "Empirical evidence through statistical analysis has shown (particularly in Colombia in the north west region of the Sierra Nevada) that there is a direct relation between conservation and indigenous reserves. So, the answer is "yes, I do think so". (S40) There were those that referred to the need for a harmonic relationship because: 1) the environment should be protected for the benefit of indigenous peoples: "… indigenous reserves are related with spaces or areas that the government leaves for indigenous people and protected areas are where the local authorities or government provide the ($) resources in order to protect them" (S19); "Existe una relación, historica y cultural, respecto a su territorio, esto debe ser respetado y protegido para las mismas comunidades indigenas" (There is an historic and cultural relationship with respect to their territories. This should be respected and protected by indigenous communities for their own sake (S20). 2) the protection is fundamental for biodiversity conservation: "… Podria ser que se proteja un area porque existe cierta flora o fauna que esta en peligro de extincion. Por ejemplo, muchos animales que viven en la selva solo se aparean una vez al año en cierta temporada y si estos son interrumpidos por presencia humana su decendencia podria verse aun mas en peligro de extincion… " (It may be that an area is protected because there are endangered flora or fauna. For example, there are many rainforest animals that mate once a year or seasonally; if they are interrupted by human activities their progeny could be further endangered) (S25); "… development there should be restricted for the sake of conservation" (S33) 3) sustainable practices could be developed based on indigenous peoples' experiences: "Yes. By protecting areas where almost all indigenous people are more and more confined, there will be a way to preserve indigenous experiences in order for these experiences to contribute to a sustainable development." (S11). Utopia There were also those sorts of answers that reflected a feeling of hope or a sense of Utopia, in which a harmonic, positive relationship was acknowledged as desirable but not yet achieved: "I imagine IR to equate with PA in some way. Perhaps naively. IR is implicitly protected from external development forces, but not necessarily internal." (S3); "There can be. If people are continuing a way of life that has been sustainable in the past and are able to develop sustainably (… ) there is no reason why both should not coexist." (S6); "Most indigenous reserves must be also protected areas. How to effectively do it? I don't know." (S36); "In countries with mindless and irresponsible politicians and business people, it should be mandatory that 'indigenous reserves' must be synonymous with 'protected areas'. (S42) 13 Contamination and cultural imposition Some respondents signalled the risk of contamination, this is of indigenous peoples being influenced by a mestizo culture and therefore driven to break the presumed harmonic relationship with the natural environment. This may be seen as a lost opportunity, that of the rest of humanity to learn from indigenous experiences or, that of given indigenous people to assert managerial control: "Yes, as indigenous populations tend to live in harmony with nature these areas tend to require protection from the outside world. (S12); "… I also think it is difficult to put it into practice since indigenous people want to be part of the economic system and therefore there is a risk of depletion. Anyway who is better to protect certain areas than the people who have lived there for hundred of years!!!" (S39); "Yes, in fact, so far as I know, many of our indigenous people live in these protected areas, where most of them have been able to live in a sustainable way, I say most of them, because others are affected by the mestizo men that live nearby or want to get something from that place due to its economic importance, affecting these natural areas." (S45) It was pointed out that both types of jurisdiction, IR and PA, derived from a cultural-historical process, in which self-determination was not accounted for: "Yes, a very imperialistic one - especially in the Americas (including Canada). It is an old regressive link between the two, in the 60s and 70s this paternalistic viewpoint saw indigenous culture as static --which is wrong!" (S24); "Yes, they both seem to be defined by the ruling 'white' government." (S26) A respondent that had visited Amazonia (VA) added that there is resistance to this imposition, at least as far as indigenous peoples of Colombia are concerned: "yes-especially when indigenous management systems are practised in spite of the models of dominant society in Colombia" (S27). Similarly, another VA respondent suggested that in Colombia there are no friendly relationships between IR and PA: "It depends from country to country, but in Colombia no" (S10)! Analytical responses The analysis provided by some of the respondents tended to localise the relationship: to put it into the historical process. The analysis underlined the main problem for a "non-confrontational" relationship between IR and PA regimes. As they are designations that came about without public participation and from a rationality that is especially alien to indigenous peoples, when IRs and PAs overlap, competition for management arises. These type of answers either acknowledged that the relationship happens through overlap, or mentioned the difficulties of hitting indigenous rights and conservation target simultaneously: "Freedom of choice for all people, in terms of lifestyle, cultural heritage can translate into giving management control to indigenous people in protected areas. However the balance between sustainable economic development for indigenous people and at the same time protecting the environment is a difficult topic to discuss at a macro level. Individual environmental and socio-cultural circumstances need to be fully accounted for and explicitly articulated." (S7) "Yo creo que existe una relacion estrecha entre reservas indigenas y areas protegidas alrededor del mundo. Ya que estas dos figuras juridicas en muchos casos (p.e. Colombia) se encuentran translapadas." (I believe there is a close relationship between indigenous reserves and protected areas around the world. It derives from the fact that in many cases these two jurisdictions overlap) (S34). 14 "There is a relationship when they overlap, which I think happens often." (S44) "Los resguardos y las reservas indigenas han tenido la tendencia a considerarse y definirse como areas protegidas, sin embargo me parece importante tener en cuenta que al establecer los limites territoriales entre los resguardos quedan zonas intermedias que no pertenecen necesariamente a algun resguardo, y esto hace de un modo u otro que tambien se presenten roces con diferentes actores. Por la misma razon que al no estar circunscrito en un resguardo aparentemente se consideraría como un area no protegida… " (It has been the tendency to consider the resguardos and indigenous reserves as protected areas. However, I think it is worth considering that when the resguardo boundaries are established, there are zones in-between not ascribed to any resguardo. And this makes it somehow possible for different [political] actors to get confrontational. This happens as a consequence of the non-ascription of the in-between zone, which is not considered as protected area… ) (S48) However it came about and assuming that both jurisdictions are somehow competing, some respondents argued that IR should be more effective, as it gives responsibility to the people for their own lives: "Yes, although I think indigenous reserves serve to protect the environment/area better. This is because they are protected by local people who value the resources and use them in a traditional and more sustainable way. Protected areas can be designated/run by Governments and this can remove the responsibility from the indigenous peoples." (S5); "Yes. I think that indigenous reserves do offer more protection than protected areas because it gives local people more incentive to use sustainable practices. They can see it being in their own interests" (S17) In contrast, one respondent argued: "Maybe there is, but I don't believe in reserves" (S35). And a second respondent (VA) added that poverty have driven indigenous peoples to behave unsustainably: "I think it is possible. However, some indigenous areas are completely degraded because they are selling their natural resources to survive." (S53). This response (S53) is related to one of those made to Q1: "To a certain degree, yes. I think that monetary considerations will always outweigh humanitarian concerns and it is very hard to convince people who are seeking a living from sometimes meagre resources that it is in their own good to give consideration to long-term sustainable use of their resources. It is usually easier and cheaper to move on to the next area when one area has been depleted." (S17) Both answers (Q1-S17, Q2-S53) echo a neo-Malthusian argument. It implies that a 'tragedy of the commons' is happening in Amazonia and elsewhere as result of overpopulation. The politics involved "No. Indigenous reserves and protected areas (for nature conservation) are two different political land use strategies. If the government is assigning an Indian reserve then they should respect the use the indigenous people are making of the terrain according to traditional use or to improved technologies. Areas for Nature conservation must be treated separately and with a different priority. We cannot make the indians responsible for the disappearing of the diversity. The government has to be responsible by applying appropriate conservation and management regimes" (S2) This response makes an argument for the need to differentiate between IR and PA as diverse political strategies that pursue different aims. The first would aim to 15 comply with Indigenous Peoples Rights, particularly that of self-determination. The second political strategy would aim at biodiversity conservation. The respondent acknowledges indigenous social change as indigenous management depends on both, tradition and technological improvement. Interestingly, the analysis provided does not try to conceal the confrontational nature of the relationship; nor does it neither place much hope in conciliation. On the contrary, it advocates for a distinction. If there is some hope or sense of utopia in the response it comes from solutions provided by technological improvement. Which is something this particular respondent had already stressed in Q1: "… . Development as the integration of western technologies or increase of income per capita, can be carefully done by implementing appropriate technologies into the productive activities of the communities. Sustainability defined as a continuous productivity level in the long term." (S2) Non-conclusive comment-Q211 Nowadays, the establishment or enlargement of IRs (Resguardos in Colombia) and PAs requires the interested proponents to follow long protocols, the fulfilment of precise administrative procedures and of legal conditions. One aim of the process is to allow different stakeholders to participate and to assure the fulfilment of fundamental rights to all citizens in equal conditions. In Colombia, like in many other parts of the developing world, when the "juridical figures" were established these procedures were not necessary, therefore, many IRs and PAs were established without participation of all interested parties. It is not surprising that some of the respondents refer to the confrontation or competition of regimes that began with their imposition. It could be of some significance that none of the respondents that claimed the need to harmonise IR and PA have been in Amazonia. In contrast, the two respondents that pointed out that these two regimes are conflicting in Colombia have been there. The analytical response that called for clear differentiation between the two also came from the group of people that had visited Amazonia (VA). From the set of answers given to Q2 it is clear that different and contrasting narratives ascribed to with respect to environmental management. For some of the respondents indigenous peoples are guardians of the environment, victims of colonialism or in risk of a cultural contamination that will force them to adopt maladaptive strategies that would threaten conservation strategies. For others, indigenous reserves are untrustworthy designations: the environment should be preserved against development and human intervention, be it indigenous or otherwise. Therefore indigenous peoples should not be in charge of environmental management. Yet, another political perspective is derived from hopes of compatibility between the two regimes, which although pursuing different aims are seen as relevant for environmental and human security at the same time. Thus, the third perspective could be characterised as dialectic or iterative. From this (last) perspective indigenous experience could help the development of conservation strategies; and, 11 Schematic summary: Table 2, Appendix 3. 16 at the same time, the revision of environmental and conservation management strategies could be vital for the survival of indigenous peoples. Hope or Utopian visions also have a place here: the development of technology is seen as a key component for adequate environmental management. Technological improvement would allow both compliance with indigenous peoples' rights and biodiversity conservation. We are sketching a continuum from our comment on Q1, suggesting that the narrative of conciliation 'reflects a process of thinking and acting that is deeply rooted in utopia'. Q3 - Do you think that the concepts of protected areas (PA), indigenous reserves (IR) and sustainable development (SD) are useful for environmental management today? Two respondents say that the concepts should be context specific: "Yes, but which of them is useful depends on context… " (S1). "As I said before, all these terms have to be defined properly in the first place before they can be applied." (S2). There were two respondents that simply said 'yes' (S14, S22), while one answered: "yes, if it works" (S4). S4's response suggests that concepts are instruments, and not surprisingly many answers referred to the "applicability" of these three concepts. Environmental indians and contamination risk Some respondents reiterated the idea, already expressed in Q1 and Q2, that indigenous peoples are practitioners of SD or conservation managers: "… Indigenous reserves are important because they allow the preservation of a way of living in sympathy with the environment long gone in most areas… " (S12); "Claro que si. Las culturas indigenas son un ejemplo de convivencia y explotacion sostenible del entorno en que viven" (Yes of course. Indigenous cultures are an example of coexistence with the environment they live in and of sustainable exploitation.) (S23); "Yes because indigenous people are the 'shepherds' of the landscape and they have a first-hand understanding and experience (handed down from previous generations) of ecosystem processes. Sometimes indigenous customs and habits reflect an understanding of nature's processes that can be exemplary in the planning of management plans… "(S41) One response re-enforced an idea presented in Q2, that indigenous sustainable practices are in risk as the younger generations begin to adopt western lifestyles: "… , but this knowledge is also in danger [endangered],… , shamanism is related in many cases to the management of the natural resources, but I have listened to the indigenous people from the community that I'm working in, that they're not interested in receiving this knowledge from their parents, and day by they they're a lot like us in their agricultural practices." (S45) Principles as instruments Various responses made reference to certain conditions that would have to be fulfilled in order for the concepts to be useful. This perspective, where the concepts are understood as political instruments, could be useful if a 'real' or 'truth-value' definition of them were accomplished. This truth-value would come from using the political instrumentality of a concept only if it were to reflect a set of principles such as intergenerational equity, empowerment, and participation. 17 And, in the case of participation, special emphasis were given to the incorporation of indigenous people, their knowledge and ways of dealing with the environment: "The concept of protected areas will only be successful if indigenous peoples are involved, therefore this would seem to indicate that indigenous reserves would be the best way forward of the two" (S5) "… indigenous reserves need to be redefined according to the wishes of the people who will be living in them,… (S6); "… If sustainable development means development with the means which exist and with the participation of the people concerned… " (S11); Yes. Exercising indigenous knowledge should not be limited to reserves but integrated into the management plans along with scientific knowledge more widely. (S26); "Yes… Any protected area, etc. must actively incorporate the participation of indigenous people" (S41) The idea of intergenerational equity is attached to that of resource reserve for the developmental process: "Yes… The sustainable development concept relating to the obligation of the present generation to leave enough natural assets and capital for future generations to enjoy at least the same quality of life we enjoy today must be at the heart of environmental management activities." (S12) "Yes, because the natural environment that we believe is endangered should be protected as a reference in future years to come and because of this a sense of environmental management is very important as the same environment becomes a resource for development" (S13) "Yes. We need to protect the area and its people and provide for sustainable development. (S21) "… pero estoy cierto que las areas protegidas independentemente del interes en prervarlas desempeñan un papel importante en el manejo de ambientes naturales para la captura de CO2, conservación de recursos biogenéticos/biodiversidad/ y como elementos de estudio para futuras generaciones… " (… but I am certain that, independently of the interest in preserving them, protected areas play a roll in the management of natural environment for CO2 sequestration, conservation of biodiversity/genetic resources and as study subjects for future generations (S25) "yes, otherwise development will go against our own endurance. I think we have to consider the possibility that we are not the most powerful force in this world." (S38) Risk and Protection Following this idea is that of concepts (as political instruments) being useful if they could provide and enforce protection (S13, S21 above). In this case either the environment is seen at risk (endangered species or ecosystems) or both indigenous peoples and their environments: "Yes. Protected areas are important as pools of natural resources not affected by human activity. Indigenous reserves are important because they allow the preservation of a way of living in sympathy [tune] with the environment long gone in most areas." (S12); "I think they are vital. Until everyone has a responsible attitude to environmental control certain protections have to be enforced." (S17) Some of the responses expressing a need for environmental protection have a sense of impending catastrophe: "Yes, but they are loaded concepts so we have to be careful in using them… sustainable development is the only way we will survive, but is usually glibly applied." (S6); "in a limited sense perhaps.but what we need to accomplish is protection of all that there is left, without cutting and taking land around the so called protected area. stop the modernisation process wherever it has not already reached into" (S32); "Yes, because they are the only source to preserve life on earth." (S51) 18 Protection but of cultural diversity: "… They may contribute to 'capturing' and saving fragile cultures and 'unknown' languages." (S31) Although acknowledging the need for protection, some respondents made it explicit that IRs were not effective, as the policies derived from such concepts (regimes) would increase risk instead of attenuating it: "… in terms of indigenous groups if they become circumscribed to a specific protected area then this will prevent persistence of nomadic lifestyles etc. and as a result the protected area may become 'unsustainable' as people are becoming circumscribed to a specific reserve. I guess this also answers the question on indigenous reserves, however, the indigenous reserves of N. America should be used as an example of the problems of tying people to such reserves,… " (S10) "… 'indigenous reserves' are not so useful - most of indigenous social problems have been caused by the colonisers, and are being reproduced through generations. Keeping indigenous people enclosed in such areas, and introducing paternalistic rules and laws is not healthy for any society. It instils racism in a society, and will not ensure that indigenous practices of environmental management will be maintained - that depends on the indigenous group and how they choose to manage their environment… " (S24) The need for integration and its impediments Some emphasis was put on the idea that there is or should be a link between the concepts (political instruments): "Yes all concepts are useful as they each permit different aspects of the economic/ecology debate to enter into the wider public arena. Ultimately for there to be sustainable solutions to environmental problems there needs to be a holistic approach adopted… " (S7) "… environmental development will not be meaningful without taking into account the interrelation between 'indigenous reserves' and 'sustainable development'" (S11) "Yes, because all areas are linked with each other very closely" (S18). "Yes. Exercising indigenous knowledge should not be limited to reserves but integrated into the management plans along with scientific knowledge more widely." (S26) "… Lo que creo es que tanto las reservas indigenas, como las areas protegidas deberian orientarse hacia un desarrollo sostenible. Bien sea que estas dos figuras se translapen o no. Si entendemos el desarrollo sostenible como un proceso que involucra criterios sociales, culturales, economicos, y ambientales." (… What I do believe is that indigenous reserves as well as protected areas should direct their attention towards sustainable development, whether or not the entities [juridical regimes] overlap. If we understand sustainable development as a process that involves social, cultural, economic and environmental criteria.) (S34) However, quiet a few responses pointed out the problems that prevent this integration from taking place: 1) Incompatibility of interests between IR and PA: "… Protected areas are useful, but they raise the debate as to whether one should protect an area and exclude people from it so that a certain species/ archaeological site/community can survive or whether people should have access… " (S10); "It is quite difficult to harmonies those concepts, specifically among indigenous people. They are convinced that 'sustainable development' is an imperialist concept, and the first idea they have -as far as they hear the concept- is that they are going to be exploited by others… " (S40) 2) The prevalence of economic efficiency and profit at the expense of anything else: 19 "… El desarrollo sustentable que ha sido cada vez mas un objetivo importante en varios paises del mundo. Pero encontrar los balances correctos ha sido y es dificil, particulrmente cuando las sociedades y gobiernos estan sometidos a un proceso de globalizacion y de efeicientizacion economica. He ahi los conflictos permanentes de lograr un desarrollo verdaderamente sustentable que considere no solo los aspectos economicos, pero politicos, cultrales, sociales y ecologicos o ambientales. (Sustainable development has become an increasingly important objective in several countries around the world. But to find the correct balances has been and continues to be difficult; in particular as a result of societies and governments being subjected to economic efficiency within the globalisation process. There are permanent conflicts in the way of obtaining a real sustainable development that involve not only the economic aspects, but also the social, cultural, ecological and environmental criteria " (S25). "… too many people think of 'sustainable' as meaning economic sustainability and not environmental sustainability." (S30). "… While protected areas and indigenous reserves serve to maintain environmental quality, the concept of sustainable development is often disregarded for the sake of profits and globalisation." (S33) 3) Political manipulation: "I think there have been problems with these concepts for two reasons: First, they mean different thing for different people, second, they have been used and to serve particular interests. There are several and opposite definitions of 'sustainable development' and it's a difficult concept. 'Indigenous reserve', used as a general concept does not describe usefully the complex realities and 'protected areas' have been used to serve particular interests over time so I think it is seen suspiciously by a lot of people." (S44) "I think so, but these concepts are used a lot by politicians, and then the meaning can be manipulated". (S46) "… The big problem is not related to the concepts alone, it is related to the way in which these are applied according with particular interests and purposes. Many times the terms are used by different groups or organisations in order to pretend to be environmental friendly or responsible, when the real purposes reveal an opposite target or interest." (S47) "… Muy seguaramente estos términos se manejan como deben ser en el plano académico teórico, mas no ocurre lo mismo en el ambito práctico donde lo que prevalece son los interese de los diferentes actores que trabajan en este campo, lo que lleva inevitablemente a que se presenten situaciones de tension entre estos y se deje de lado el objetivo primordial en cuanto a la conservación y le manejo ambiental" (For sure, theoretically and within the academic circles these concepts are managed as they should be. Although, in the practical scenario privilege is given to the particular interests of those different [political] actors who work in this field. Thus, it is unavoidable that tensions will arise between these [political actors], which leave aside the fundamental aim of environmental management and conservation) (S48) 4) Semantics, the concepts mean too many things to too many different political actors (S44 above): "… 'Sustainable development' is not so useful for environmental management, as the concept is too contested - it means too many different things to different people." (S24); "As I said, the problem is that there are many definitions of those terms and it makes it difficult to determine if they are useful in one place compared to other places" (S50) Dynamism The perspective of 'dynamism' reflects a perception of mutating meanings as an advantage. Under this perspective 'contested' means 'in change', which is seen as part of a learning process, which is in tune with the idea of local definition of concepts (emphasised above): "Ultimately for there to be sustainable solutions to environmental problems there needs to be a holistic approach adopted, where people can better appreciate that their lifestyle has much in 20 common with others - even if they are in an OECD country and cannot appreciate the day to day lifestyle of someone in a less developed country. … . Therefore the concepts listed can provide an opportunity to raise the awareness of the majority of the world's people." "Yes, there is plenty that can be learned from these three concepts and also applied" (S37) "A lot, I believe there are a lot of things we can learn from them, specially in this field of study,." (S45) "If these concepts are [understood or interpreted] under a dynamic and changing world (attached to contexts), which mean that there is not a unique definition or way to apply them, I think they are still useful for environmental management." [original: understanding or interpreting… ] (S47) The need for new concepts-Q3 Contradicting narratives can be appreciated through the reading of these responses. There is a group of respondents that are uncritical of the concepts or the policies derived from them (like S37, S45 above and): "Yes, they are important to efficient environmental management" (S28); "Yes. An understanding of the mechanism of these terminologies is essential for effective environmental management … " (S9). Another group could be made out of those responses that reflect suspicion or are definitely critical of the concepts (S10, S24, S25, S30, S33, S40, S44, S46, S47, S48, S50 above). And, besides the group of respondents that express conditionality or hope (see above), there is a group of responses that, while critical of the concepts, acknowledge that at present they are all we have: "… which of them is useful depends on context… If an ethnic group is to be allowed to determine the course of events within its own territory, then the territory must be reserved for them until such time as they develop complete autonomy or decide to integrate more closely with wider society. Sustainable development may seem a rather broad, unspecific term, but it does at least draw attention to the unsustainability of conventional development… " (S1) "… The concept of sustainable development is gradually getting better developed and, even if it is not strictly attainable, gives decision-makers something to work towards… (S5) "I don't agree with the concept of SD as it is a contradiction in terms, but at present there are few better alternatives… " (S10) One respondent actually moved forward in the critique, pointing out that the concepts were built on preconceptions and identifying the need to generate new concepts that would integrate the useless categorical divide of nature and society: "I think they are old fashioned, and generated by the Anglo-Saxon culture. We should move towards an increased compatibility between human activities and nature, making it therefore not necessary to talk about reserves, or natural areas." (S35) Non-conclusive comment-Q312: The majority if not the totality of respondents took 'concepts' as 'politics'. They discussed the history of these politics, their adequacy and sufficiency. It is very interesting that while the conduct through which political ideas become policies is supposed to be complex, it is obvious for the respondents that there is more than theoretical debate going on in the process of policy making. There is a prevailing, sometimes automatic or non-reflexive awareness that narratives pursue the aims that drive the policies and politics that are transforming the environment. 12 Schematic summary: table 3, Appendix 3. 21 In continuity with the results of Q2, only 1 out of five respondents of those who argued for the need to integrate the concepts had been in Amazon; while the two respondents that argued the case of 'incompatibility of interests' had been there. Of those which suggested that these concepts –political strategies- are useful for environmental protection or that this is the last chance –catastrophism- for life, none had visited Amazonia. It may be of some significance that none of the five respondents that suggested that IR might be a better strategy than PA have been in Amazonia, while one person of the two that argued that IRs are ineffective had been there. The responses correspond to several narratives that can be identified. One of them is that of 'confidence in science and trust in political instrumentality' derived from the (traditional definitions of) concepts outlined. Another narrative is that of 'natives as heroes and outsiders as villains', which is reflected in the suspiciousness of concepts based in untested assumptions and in mistrust of the governmental policies derived from them. In summary there is a status-quo narrative and a counter narrative. Yet a third type of narrative could be identified, that of 'critical understanding'. Q4 – Should environmental managers (EM) get involved in the territorial ordering process (TOP) of the Amazon? One of the respondents simply answered yes (S4). One was unsure (S52), perhaps suspicious? One considered the question was tricky (S32), and three of them put the question into question. Two of these responses asked for the term 'environmental manager' to be defined: "Difficult to answer. Define the roles, mandate and empowerment of the environmental manager… " (S31); "What do you mean by environmental managers?." (S6). The third one was more critical: "this sentence is colonialist as if indigenous peoples of Amazonia were not in fact environmental managers" (S27). With a similar intent, one respondent argued that indigenous people were better-qualified environmental mangers: "Las comunidades indigenas han sido las mejores administradoras del territorio ancestral, eso debe ser respetado y replicado en zonas donde la intervención humana 'civilizada' ha afectado las condiciones ambientales. (Indigenous communities have been the best managers of ancestral territories, this should be respected and should be replicated in areas where 'civilised' human intervention has affected environmental conditions) (S20)" The response of Indigenous peoples as better managers had been expressed in Q1, Q2 and Q3. Another three responses reinforced the ideas of catastrophism, the need for urgent environmental protection and to stop development (S32, S33, S42). Perspectives EMs are the ones: "Definitely" (S12); " … They have in many cases a better view for the long-run." (S18); 22 Yes. Who else is better suited to do so?" (S21); "Environmental Managers should get involved. They are best able to ensure protection of ecosystem" (S28); "Por supuesto que si. Ya que el ordenamiento territorial de un territorio (en este caso de la Amazonia) debe tener como objetivos el desarrollo sostenible." (Definitely. Territorial ordering (of the Amazon in this case) should have sustainable development as an objective) (S34); "Because they are the ones that can understand the balance that must exist between economic development, traditional culture and environment." (S36); " They should, how can they do whithout?" (S46) "Yes, because they can contribute to better territorial ordering in the region" (S53) EMs and scientists figure out the solutions and take the decisions: "Deben estar involucradas todas las personas del planeta, pero con mas razon los 'decision makers', que a fin de cuentas, toman las acciones concretas sobre nuestro futuro medioambiental. (All people from the planet should get involved, but the 'decision makers' have more reason to be there, after all they are the ones that take the concrete actions in respect to our environmental future) (S23); "Yes, but along with some other scientists, not only because of the importance of the Amazon from a global point of view, but specially for the importance for the people living there." (S35); "Yes, always considering multiple disciplines result in a better understanding and so better solutions." (S38) But taking into account the other opinions: "Yes, although indigenous peoples will also play a major part and without them any agreements between Governments and environmental managers will not work… " (S5); "Not always, because it is necessary to take into consideration lay people's opinions too." (53) Indigenous peoples direct EMs: "If they are asked to do so by indigenous peoples, I see no problem with this." (S1); "Territorial ordering should be primarily decided upon by the indigenous groups that inhabit them, … ultimately decisions need to come from the bottom upwards" (S10); "… The indigenous people should be in charge of the program at the ultimate level" (S14). " They should but they should make sure they respect the opinion of indigenous people and they should be very discreet in their approach and aim for cooperation." (S41) EMs have equal rights to participate as other stakeholders: " Of course. All actors should be involved in the process… It doesn't mean that they have to take decisions but they can evaluate the circumstances under different and also important perspectives." (S2); "What do you mean by environmental managers? But yes, I think they also have a stake in the fate of the Amazon, and have a right to make their voices heard. (S6); " Involvement - yes but only in collaboration and co-operation with the Amazonian people and those in the higher levels of bureaucracy and policy making … Environmental managers can make significant contributions in this area, given their depth of understanding of the issues (relative to the general public)" (S7); "Deveriam estar envolvidos no processo de re-ordenamento territorial, junto com edndios, ribeirinhos etc" (they should be involved in the territorial ordering process together with indigenous peoples, riverine inhabitants, etc." (S29); " I think they should be involved as advisors and technical support but I support the idea of a non-technical management, where decisions are taken by the different stakeholders based on the technical advice and the social, cultural and economic factors." (S44) 23 But this intervention should be avoided within indigenous territories: "Not in indigenous reserves or territories which historically have been managed by indigenous communities. In other areas, should be taking part in dialogue of knowledge between cultures, people, communities, scientists and decision makers from private and government sectors, to order process on the amazon area." [Original text:… historically has been management by… ](S47) The apolitical EM: "Yes, but not for political reasons. It should be for the cause of sustainable use of our natural environment which is our heritage." (S9); " … Generally though I think that environmentalists like missionaries before them should not get involved in political processes as this can have a very negative reaction within the local community." (S17) "Yes, their knowledge will hopefully be of use in the ordering process" (S37) The political participation of EMs: "Yes, to counteract the interference of other external actors but hopefully to work with the indigenous people respecting their values and practices, not independently." (S26) EMs as facilitators of the dialog between IK and WS: "… without them [indigenous peoples] any agreements between Governments and environmental managers will not work. Environmental Managers should facilitate discussion… " (S5); "Territorial ordering should be primarily decided upon by the indigenous groups that inhabit them, environmental managers roles here should be as referees to help in the co-ordination of the process, but ultimately decisions need to come from the bottom upwards." (S10); "It's necessary for people involved in this field of study, that had already gained a conscience, and that are able to understand that we have to work with indigenous, not from our usual management vision, but theirs, trying to see the world like they do. In this way could be easier, perhaps to understand and give convincing and why not scientific arguments to the authorities (or people in charge of handling these affairs) about the different way they have already distributed their territory, which [in] most of the case (if not all) doesn't have our political distribution. (I.E, those groups that live between Colombia and Brazil boundaries) they don't have the same division of territories, because of this, they must be managed in a way more in concordance to their political organisation." (S45) Capacity, ability and quality of EMs: "Depends who the environmental managers are - if they are from the area and have a passion for the area, then why not. If they are drafted in from outside, and seen as the 'outside experts' then probably not - it usually causes friction within the area."(S24) "Define the roles, mandate and empowerment of the environmental manager. They may fall into different categories, of which I may name at least 4: 1. The conflictive manager. Created by a lobbying body. A good example is the body (forget the name) that is in charge of the Everglades in Florida. Their work is tainted by conflict of interest: the provision of water to cities and sugar cane farmers, at the same time maintaining the 'wet lands' as an ecosystem and controlling flooding! 2. The romantic. Exemplified by rich Europeans or North-Americans. Wanting to keep habitats, they may buy some land and resort to eco-tourism in order to keep their sustainability. I believe there are some German managed 'eco' destinations in Ecuador. Driven by an alternative way of life, they may not 'manage' the environment as they should. 3. The bureaucrat. A member of a government agency or NGO that may not be aware of local needs, responding always to policies made from a distance. Current legislation may be a hinder. "Los paisas", developed and colonised what is today Risaralda, Quindio, Caldas and 24 parts of Choco in Colombia, by using legislation that enabled them to cut and clear big forest areas to be claimed afterwards, creating the concept of the "colono". A colonisation process I witnessed in Caquetá some years ago. 4. The "grass roots" manager. Perhaps, the type who knows best the ecosystem and the power relationships that develop around it by the people involved with it. Usually their voice is not heard, mainly because of the threat they represent to some landowners or 'colonos'. If the law regarding claiming land that has been cleared is still existing, managing the environment is going to be a great task. One shall not forget that the 'colono' phenomenon represents one of the many socio-economical problems a nation like Colombia faces. … Management work usually develops around a policy. Trust among all participants is primordial. There ought to be some kind of legal-economical framework that will ease management work. If this is in place and all conflicts of interest reduced, then the territorial ordering process of Amazonia may become real." (S 31) Political risks, EMs tough job: "Yes, however the pressures on the person might be extreme. It would be preferable to have both on-site environmental managers and use some respected external managers as reference." (S15); "Yes, but bearing in mind that you should work with politicians and many kinds of 'parasitic' people which are thinking every day in the short term. It means that environmental managers are not enough for sustainable management and use of natural resource: their analytical models as well as their technical capacity is necessary, but they cannot work isolated, they require to work with others, despite the fact that 'the others' could (and should) think in a different way." (S40) Summarising-Q413 Like in the responses to Q1, Q2 and Q3, we can identify different and often contradictory perspectives. There were those that argued that environmental managers14 are the best qualified for the task and appeared somewhat perplexed by the question. Within that group there were those responses that assumed that decisions were taken by environmental managers or should be taken by them, although two expressed that others' opinion should be considered to a lesser extent. In the other direction were the responses that questioned intervention by EMs and considered it useful only when the decision-making process was led by indigenous peoples themselves. Yet, a third group was of the opinion that EMs should get involve in the same conditions that other stakeholders, such as indigenous peoples but, one respondent suggested they should not intervene in the management of indigenous peoples' territories at all. 13 See also Table 4, Appendix 3. 14 Called EMs in the survey to differentiate them from other experts and indigenous peoples. As it has been explained elsewhere (See "The march of the Manikins: Agroforestry practices and Spiritual dancing in Northwest Amazonia) indigenous peoples management of the environment departs from a different rationality and uses different instruments. What indigenous people from Northwest Amazonia call "management of the world" is not only a set of shamanistic practices but a way of living that combines social aims, aesthetic values, religious believes, and economic practices in a distinctive manner. Although acknowledging indigenous peoples from Northwest Amazonia are in fact environmental managers, the author has stressed that their "management of the world" incorporates many things, some of them of tremendous importance for environmental management more generally. 25 The other contrasting perspectives concerned the character of the intervention. While one group of responses were of the opinion that EMs should not get involved in politics, but have a technical approach, others thought that they should get involved to contrast and balance the political interests of other groups. A third group emerged, which advocated the intervention of environmental managers as conciliators and facilitators. Related to this roll of managers as advisers there was a group of responses showing concern with the capacity, ability and quality of environmental managers and, the possible risks that they have to face. Non-conclusive comment-Q4: As in responses to questions one, two and three, we can trace arguments and contra-arguments. One set of respondents portrays EMs as heroes. In this scenario they face a tough job, they are well trained, better able and indispensable for the process of territorial ordering; their politically risky job in which they have to make the decisions would be fundamental for diminishing environmental risk and even saving life on earth. (As in Q2 and Q3 none of those arguing conservation/catastrophism had been in Amazonia). A counter narrative is that provided by respondents arguing that EMs' participation should be directed by indigenous peoples (IP) or that the projects should be led mainly by natives, and that EMs should not intervene in the management of indigenous territories: in this case the heroes are indigenous peoples. A second counter narrative seems to be reflected by some of the respondents. In this scenario, EMs like IP should have equal rights to participate as different stakeholders, in this case decisions would come from a rational process in which dialog between cultures would take place. The participation of EMs would not be limited by their status/power but by their capacity, ability and their roll as facilitators or conciliators. Discussion European colonisation of Africa, Asia, the Americas, and Australasia from the late fifteenth century onwards, gave a tremendous boost to the volume of global transactions involving natural resources. Over the long run, trade in these resources, and in an increasingly diverse array of environmental services, has been expanding ever since. However, much of what is called globalisation in the twenty first century has more to do with developments in information technology since the late 1900s. The increasing speed of communications media and information transfer have proved fundamental in economic restructuring and the transformation of the world into a largely urban space (Castells 1996). In the globalised, twenty first century, local political decisions have little chance of being autarchic; international policy advisors inform local stakeholders about what is considered adequate or legal in accordance with international treaties, foreign protocols and political compromises. The local politics of environmental management is the concern of everybody: corporations, governments, international, regional and national NGOs, all of which compete for access to information and expansion of their scope of power in the political arena (Ambrose-Oji, Allmark et al. 2002). During the 1990s, and especially after the Río Earth Summit in 1992, one of the main topics of discussion was management of the global environment (Sachs 26 1993). Global targets for sustainable development were established at Río and similar processes were set in train at regional, national and local scales all over the world, following the guidelines set out in one of the policy documents agreed at Río: "Agenda 21". The official discourse that emerged from the Río process was replicated and many of the assumptions that informed the original discourse have been accorded a quasi-factual status by many people all over the globe (Sevilla_Guzmán and Woodgate 1997). The official discourse on globalisation emphasised the need for environmental management at supranational levels. At the same time, counter-discourse or anti-globalisation narratives have emerged. These emphasise the rights of indigenous people and local political actors to manage natural resources independently, in ways that allow them to make their own livelihood decisions and establish resource-use regimes that can provide the environmental goods and services that people need15. The management of the environment has always motivated debate and often led to confrontation. One of the main arguments of conservative conservationists concerns the 'vulnerability' of rainforest environments, and thus the need for their protection. Since the 1980s the problem of deforestation of tropical rainforests has been a global issue with special emphasis in South East Asia, the Congo basin and Amazonia (Adger, Benjaminsen et al. 2001). In a 1998 analysis of 'rainforest' web-sites, Stott revealed four metawords within the conservation rhetoric: orientalism (the exotic other), climax (harmony), old age (ancient, undisturbed) and vulnerability (Stott 1999). Metawords such as these become key rhetorical devices so that even research and development project proposals tend to employ them, thus replicating assumptions that are no longer questioned. How is this metalanguage produced? What are the bases of its principal cannons? And why is it that semantic analysis tends to remain the preserve of scientists – or is it something that is also dealt with at a local level? Narratives can be traced back in time. Equilibrium disturbance (climax rupture) and environmental fragility (vulnerability) both played parts in Hardin's 1968 'tragedy of the commons' (Hardin 1998). The neo-Malthusian discourse of environmental catastrophe as a result of an increasing population (of 'poor people') lies at the heart of Hardin's tragedy. The conservative conservationist perspective on the management of the rainforest is based on mistrust of systems of environmental management in which property rights (over life and resources) are not yet marketable. From a conservative political perspective responsible environmental action can only be achieved through the clarification of property rights to allow the unfettered action of free markets for the negotiation of such rights. It is assumed that the tragedy of the commons is happening or will happen in rainforest contexts where private property rights are not yet the rule and where societies still practise communal environmental management regimes based on indigenous knowledge rationalities in which nature and society form an ontological continuum. For conservatives only free markets for environmental rights, good and services can guarantee sustainable development. Neo-Malthusian 15 The discourses that emphasise on the need of eco-efficiency, economic transnationalization and planetary ecological management, were named by Sachs as contest and astronauts' perspectives. And the counter-discourse arising from the desempowered communities of the South as the home perspective (Sachs 1977). 27 and neo-liberal assumptions are fundamental to this perspective on sustainable development. With the aim of promoting Agenda 21 at local, national and regional levels, a complex and sophisticated process of institutionalisation was embarked upon. Amazonia did not escape this process; governmental officials or conservationist NGOs replicated the dominant conservationist discourse at the local level in NWA16. This official discourse of deforestation with its main initiative of protection of the environment from people has been labelled 'hegemonic' (Stott and Dullivan 2000) or 'neo-Malthusian' and 'managerial' (Adger, Benjaminsen et al. 2001). It should come as no surprise then that counter narratives have developed in Amazonia (and elsewhere), for many of which the principal intention is to contradict the conservative policies derived from this hegemonic discourse. The rights of indigenous people to define the course of their lives: their rights to manage natural resources and the environmental services used or supplied by the Amazonian environment have been key issues in these significant counter-claims against the official Amazonian territorial ordering politics and policies, which have involved environmental management that has been designed elsewhere. This counter-narrative pursues the principle and right of self-determination against the interests of political initiatives for global environmental management. The counter-narrative was not just a reaction to neo-liberal, neo-Malthisian conservative politics and conservation policies during the 1980s and '90s, however. In Latin America, all indigenous peoples' rebellions against the European empires were motivated by a call to reconstruct pre-colonial socio-cultural orders returning to territorial orders where the management of 'agroforestry' was undifferentiated from the sacred (Varese 1996:124-25). In modern, post-colonial states, indigenous peoples continued to struggle for the recognition of their territories. In today's NWA this struggle is related to governmental and conservationists policies of environmental management and the presence of armed groups opposed to political resolution of territorial ordering. Many of the Protected Areas (PAs) of NWA were created at a time when no legal procedure was established for public intervention in the designation of such areas. The official titles of the PA or IR (Resguardos in Colombia) have not prevented non-native invasion of lands or the expansion of illegal crop production inside either PAs or IRs. Conservationists and indigenous peoples alike have vacillated between alliances with, and the rejection of, the armed groups in charge of illegal crop production, depending on the political gains to be made and the risks involved in rejecting the proposals or achieving an alliance. The armed groups, on their part, have sought political alliances when such co-operation could benefit their military capacity or improve the managerial efficiency of their enterprises.17 16 With respect to the territorial ordering process, the Colombian Amazon controversy is discussed in Forero 1999, 2000; Forero, Laborde et al. 1998. 17 See Forero 2000, "Territoriality and Governance in the Colombian Amazon". 28 As far as local inhabitants were concerned, rainforest conservation policies arrived in NWA from another space and time. The legal establishment of protected areas took no account of the opinions or desires of the peoples already inhabiting NWA. Indigenous agro-ecosystems and the livelihood strategies of more recent colonisers were both ignored. The ideology expressed through legal frameworks was that of protection of the environment from people. The villains were local inhabitants and the regulations to be enforced were those of expelling people from the 'conservation' areas and maintaining their exclusion. The dominant discourse made no distinction between complex indigenous agro-ecosystems and the less sophisticated livelihood strategies being developed by recent immigrants. All of them were labelled as "slash and burn" agriculture (Myers 1980). Yet it has become increasingly apparent over the last thirty years that slash and burn is just an aspect of indigenous environmental management in Amazonia, which combines agricultural production, fish and game management, ritual prescriptions, and aesthetic developments18. It has even been suggested that movement towards "short cropping/long-fallow" cultivation patterns within indigenous Amazonian agro-ecosystems was an strategic response to alien invasion of territories and the introduction of metal axes (Denevan 2001: 115-31). Today, most ethnoscientists find it self-evident that the concepts of "chagras" (gardens) and "rastrojos" (abandoned gardens) are far too simplified to reflect the structure of cultivations over the short-, medium- and long-terms, in accordance with local knowledge of agro-ecological variation. It is obvious that indigenous environmental management has transformed Amazonian ecosystems for millennia; this was already evident to many of the nineteenth century European explorers19. Even the most knowledgeable people in the industrialised world have no precise idea of how 'vulnerable' rainforest is and few have accurate knowledge about the political conditions facing indigenous peoples or other human inhabitants of the Amazonian rainforest. With respect to NWA, even the most determined researcher would have problems accessing this information. It is often said that the rainforests of Amazonia are the 'lungs of the planet' (S.33), a metaphor used to emphasise the region's role in the carbon cycle, especially the absorption of CO2. This is somewhat ironic given that our own lungs actually consume oxygen and release CO2 during respiration. Indigenous people have been portrayed as villains or victims depending on the observer and the moment of observation. When portrayed as victims the picture is something like this: the wise guardians of the rainforest are obliged by violence to sell their natural resources or abandon their noble environmental practices. The role of violence in the functioning of extractive economies has been well documented. Violent coercion has been the dominant system in NWA for more than a century. Although indigenous people are no longer sold, 'debt-peonage' systems still dominate and exploit poor indigenous and immigrant inhabitants of 18 See Forero 2001, " The march of the Manikins: Agroforestry Practices and Spiritual Dancing in Northwest Amazonia". 19 See Forero 2002a, " Indigenous Knowledge and the Scientific Mind: Activism or Colonialism". 29 NWA. These people are employed for the harvesting, transport and commercialisation of coca base, cocaine and, the functioning of 'extractive economies' in general (Gómez, A. 1999). But there has been an indigenous response. This has sometimes taken the form of open rebellion and sometimes that of making strategic and tactical alliances in an attempt to obtain or preserve political power, to secure the acquisition of merchandise or simply to survive20. The counter-hegemonic narratives that we mentioned above have been labelled 'populist discourse': making it explicit that the victims are the indians and the villains the international organisations, sometimes allied to transnational corporations (like oil drilling companies) and the dependent and often corrupted governments that collaborate with these international organisations (Adger, Benjaminsen et al. 2001: 687). For NWA there are reports that seem to corroborate these arguments; e.g. indigenous peoples and environmental campaigners have protested jointly in Ecuador and Brazil against the construction of massive pipelines planned to cross through both IRs and PAs in both countries. The pipeline construction projects in both countries have arisen following collaboration between national governments and international oil exploration companies and have provoked public feelings of outrage (Weinberg 2001)21 . " [In NWA] Governments, multilateral lenders, multinational corporations, private banks and other institutions may not be counting on the convenient disappearance of indigenous peoples who get in the way of their ambitious development plans, but they often act as if they are." (Rabben 1998:122) "We who live in indigenous communities are surviving in the midst of a war imposed upon us by different factions and by the very same Colombian state that historically abandoned the countryside and permitted our lands to be invaded by waves of colonizers. Today we are caught in the crossfire, menaced by killings and displacement, while the State manifests its presence in the air with planes that slowly kill our plants and animals, our subsistence crops, and our people." (Organizacion Zonal Indigena del Putumayo_ OZIP 2002) However, is it possible to claim that there is a policy of 'ethnic cleansing' for NWA? From one side the whole issue of national sovereignty has been put into question; the expansion of Plan Andino (formerly Plan Colombia), the USA's anti-drug strategy for Latin America, exemplifies the delicate situation in which some of the Latin American countries have entered the twenty first century. The military component Plan Andino is aimed to support economic measures, the famous and indeed infamous structural adjustment plans that have provoked strikes and rebellions22. Additionally, even if there were an official policy of ethnic cleansing, South American States, given their size and power, would find it difficult to implement 20 See "Indigenous Knowledge and the Scientific Mind: Activism or Colonialism" (Forero 2002a), and "Technology in Northwest Amazonia: Sketches from Inside" (Forero 2002b). 21 For recent (March 2002) press releases on this issue see www.amazonwatch.org and www.americas.org 22 See Forero and Woodgate 2002, "The semantics of 'Human Security' in Northwest Amazonia: between indigenous peoples''Management of the World' and the USA's State Security Policy for Latin America". 30 it. The poor, be they indigenous peoples or colonisers are in the middle of a territorial war linked to international networks of criminality; they have been displaced, kidnapped or killed regardless of their claims of neutrality. In the case of Colombia, although some military authorities have been linked to some of the worst of the paramilitaries' atrocities, it has not been proved that the State itself has a policy of ethnic cleansing. In the case of Brazil, in 1996 the national executive proclaimed Decree 1775, instructing a right to contravene which, contrary to 169 WTO international agreement on Indigenous Peoples' rights, gave other stakeholders the opportunity to challenge Indigenous property rights. Paramilitary groups associated with illegal evictions of indigenous peoples in Brazilian Amazonia have long sought such a 'charter'. At the same time, the decree left the definition of indigenous land rights to the will of the executive power itself (Ministry of Justice). But, as in the case of Colombia, it cannot be proved that there is a policy of ethnic cleansing. It has been suggested in the non-conclusive comments on the survey results, that many people's responses echoed hegemonic and populist narratives. Indigenous peoples were portrayed as heroes or victims, as well as scientists and environmental managers. However, quiet a few of responses cannot be associated with either populist or hegemonic narratives. There is a group of responses that reflect critical thinking and are willing to challenge such simplistic dichotomies. Thus, the concept of sustainable development has been questioned, suspiciousness of western, scientific and technological solutions was expressed, and there was little willingness to give environmental managers carte blanche to prescribe whatever measures they might see fit. Interestingly, this last group, while acknowledging the need for: new concepts and adequate guidelines for environmental management, and the difficulty of achieving conservation targets while complying with indigenous peoples rights, still consider the concepts of SD, PA and IR as useful or the politics derived from them as desirable. What is interesting is that the responses to this survey, which were made by outsiders (respondents were not inhabitants of Amazonia), reflect a tendency to picture the conflict over territory in ways that do not correspond to either of the two main narratives. We can say that inasmuch as outsiders see possibilities for political action outside hegemonic or populist approaches, so Amazonian insiders are organising and negotiating regardless of whether their political discourse echoes either conservative or counter-hegemonic politics of territorial ordering. As no significant statistical analysis could be derived from the survey it would be difficult to speak of tendencies. At first sight it seems that adherence to hegemonic, counter-hegemonic, utopic or conciliatory narratives reflects each respondent's intellectual background more than his or her witnessing of the situation of peoples and forests in Amazonia. However, certain coincidences among the responses to each question might be representative: - For Q1-SD, two out of four of the respondents that accepted the imperative of SD without question have been in Amazon, none of them is a social scientist (SS) though and the other two were environmental managers. None of the SSs 31 that had visited the region argued for complete incompatibility between sustainability and development. Instead, SSs were part of a third group acknowledging that the concept of SD might be of some use, given certain conditions. - For Q2 – the relationship between IRs and PAs, not one of those who argued for the need to harmonise the two concepts (5), or those that emphasised SD as a desirable aim that has not yet been reached (4), or those or that argued that IRs are better than PAs (2) had been to the Amazon (in total 21 % of respondents). Respondents that had visited Amazonia (VA) were among those that acknowledged a relationship between IRs and PAs and that the relationship can be both complementary and competitive. Two respondents from the VA group argued that a complementary relationship was not possible in Colombia and one of them pointed out that being political strategies with different aims they should be kept differentiated in order to avoid conflict. This result might indicate that people that have been in Amazonia are more aware of the problems of territorial ordering caused by the imposition of regimes based in alien concepts. - For Q3 – on the usefulness of the concepts, none the five respondents arguing that IRs might be better that PAs had been in Amazonia, while one of the two that argued that IRs are ineffective had visited. Only one out of five respondents that argued for the need to integrate the concepts had been in Amazonia, while both those that argued for an incompatibility of interests have. This result seems to confirm that people who have visited the area are more conscious of the problems caused when policies formulated elsewhere are imported to Amazonia. Conclusions All technological adoption/adaptation has diverse effects in the life and development of society. People living within the society that is adopting them, and the outsiders that are analysing cultural change perceive these effects in different ways. The assessments of 'usefulness' or 'risk' a society makes when adapting/adopting technologies are linked to the conscious and subconscious present and future scenarios into which the society places itself alongside other societies. If the rest of the world wishes to respect Amazonian indigenous peoples' rights of self-determination, they should not intervene in ordering processes of indigenous territories. The problem is that indigenous ways of dealing with the world might not be compatible with the ideas that foreigners have with respect to Amazonia, its peoples and its future. And, for good or bad, fairly or unfairly, each group has a way of intervening and exercising a certain amount of power to modify the global political agenda for the governance of Amazonia in function of their own particular interests. Replication of narratives is a common strategy used by all groups aiming to make alliances and enhance their power. However, the responses analysed here seem to indicate that a large group of people (at least from the academic sector) is 32 unhappy with the assumptions behind either populists or hegemonic discourses with respect to rainforest management, and seeking new ways of environmental policy making. This group of people acknowledged that political conflict has derived from policy formulated elsewhere, and derived from an epistemology alien to local inhabitants. There are varied political groups competing for the governance of Amazonia. Information and Communication Technology (ICT) facilitates analysis and political action. It is expected that better-informed indigenous peoples would be in a better position to make decisions with respect to the governance of Amazonia. At the present time, the indigenous peoples of Amazonia have very limited and precarious access to ICT. Thus, their perspectives on territorial ordering are less likely to be represented than those such as conservation agencies, multinational developers, insurgent and mafiosi groups, all of which have far superior access to ICT. 33 Appendix 1 PRIVACY POLICY: Email addresses will be used only to send out materials related to this survey. Aggregate survey results may be distributed, but all personal data will be kept strictly confidential. No information about individual users will be disclosed to third parties. 34 Appendix 2 Summary of Web-site technical work The most demanding work was designing the pages that would contain indigenous territorial maps. CAD versions of the map would have to be transformed into image files suitable for Web use. In order to do this ArcView- GIS (Geographical Information Systems) software was needed. A picture of the map could be easily generated in ArcView-GIS and to certain extent, editing and colouring could enhance some features. But such a map or, more precisely, such a picture of the bi-dimensional representation of the Tukano territory remained inadequate for publication in WebPages. "The pics were to heavy" (I would learn the ICT design jargon), meaning that the memory used to storage, loading and unloading of these pictures was vast. Besides dividing the map and generating pictures of several areas, these pictures needed transforming to make them 'lighter'. This meant that the pictures had to be edited and the storage format had to be changed in terms of the colour pallet and resolution (a maximum of 72 dpi). Most importantly, the pictures should look better! An early version of PhotoImpactTM was used to change the colours and other features as well as to design the icons that would be used to identify the hypertext links between pages. However, the software was not appropriate for the task and the 'pics' were still too heavy. The design was poor, too rigid, with inappropriate colours and, worst of all the 'weight' of the maps would not allow for easy loading of the images by potential users. To change the maps (pics) again, PhotoshopTM was used, while major design transformations were achieved using FireworksTM software. For the actual montage and edition of the whole web-site Dreamweaver3TM was used. A similar process was followed to generate the vegetation map, which was adapted from one of the Amazonian Vegetation maps generated by Puerto Rastrojo. The introduction to a political ecology taking as a case study the Yaigojé Resguardo, was originally a single text (like in the preliminary version) but following the advice of critical reviewers, this page was divided into six parts. 35 Appendix 3 Table 1 Q1- Do you think that 'development' and 'sustainability' are compatible? RESPONSE - ARGUMENT SURVEY No. NVA VA Profession Unquestioning the developmental project 2 1 PhD Student Biology 12 1 Environmental Engineer 13 1 Environmental Engineer 40 1 Project Co-ordinator (SD) Yes, to diminish environmental risk 18 1 Student 21 1 Taxation 23 1 Designer 39 1 Postgraduate Student 42 1 Biologist Sustainable Development is an aim to be 3 1 Epidemiologist reached 5 1 Civil Servant 8 1 Accountant 24 1 Student 25 1 PhD St. Agriculture & Development 29 1 Anthropologist 35 1 Lecturer 37 1 Postgraduate Student 48 1 Anthropologist 51 1 Postgraduate Student Compatible if defined locally 5 1 Civil Servant 20 1 Lecturer: Ecotourism 27 1 Anthropologist 31 1 Postgraduate Student 52 1 Lecturer: IT & Development Possible but risk of economic imperative 17 1 Unemployed Incompatible a) Contradiction in terms 24 1 Student 4 1 PhD St. Environmental genetics b) Financial economic imperative 10 1 Student 19 1 PhD St. Agriculture & Development 34 1 PhD Student: Environmental Manager 47 1 PhD Student SD inconsistent at present time 1 1 Lecturer: Env. Sociology 33 1 PhD Student 36 1 Research Engineer 45 1 EM SD is green rhetoric 7 1 Student 32 1 Teacher 48 1 Anthropologist 36 Table 2 Q2 - Do you think there is any relation between 'indigenous reserves' (IR) and 'protected areas' (PA)? RESPONSE - ARGUMENT SURVEY No. NVA VA Profession Yes 37 1 Postgraduate Student 18 1 Student 22 1 Anthropologist 43 1 Anthropologist 50 1 PhD Student No 15 1 Consultant: Health & Safety Need to harmonise IR and PA to protect a) For (IP) Indigenous Peoples' benefit 19 1 PhD St. Agriculture & Development 20 1 Lecturer: Ecoturism b) Protection of Biodiversity 25 1 PhD St. Agriculture & Development 33 1 PhD Student c) SD based on IP experiences 11 1 Consultant: Rural Development. SD as Utopia 3 1 Epidemiologist 6 1 Lecturer Ecology Env. Management 36 1 Research Engineer 42 1 Biologist IR and PA are different political strategies 2 1 PhD Student - Biologist IR and PA are colonisation strategies 10 1 Student 24 1 Student 26 1 Student Indigenous resistance to IR/PA strategies 48 1 Anthropologist IR and PA overlapped 7 1 Student 34 1 PhD St. Environmental Management 44 1 Postgraduate Student Environmental Indian 23 1 Designer 40 1 Project Co-ordinator (SD) Environmental Indians contaminated 12 1 Environmental Engineer by mestizo culture 39 1 Postgraduate Student 45 1 Environmental Manager IR are Inefficient 35 1 Lecturer 53 1 Journalist IR more effective that PA 5 1 Civil Servant 17 1 Unemployed 37 Table 3 Q3 - Do you think that the concepts of 'protected areas' (PA), 'indigenous reserves' (IR) and SD are useful for environmental management today? RESPONSE - ARGUMENT SURVEY No. NVA VA Profession Depends on the context 1 1 Lecturer: Env. Sociology 2 1 PhD St. Biologist Yes 4 1 PhD St. Env. Genetics 14 1 Economist 22 1 Anthropologist Indigenous Environmental 12 1 Environmental Engineer 23 1 Designer 41 1 PhD Student Indigenous Environmental in contamination risk 45 1 EM Concepts: Principles and instruments a) Participation: IR better than PA 5 1 Civil Servant 6 1 Lecturer Ecology EM 11 1 Consultant: Rural Development RD 26 1 Student 41 1 PhD Student b) Intergenerational Equity: resource reserve 12 1 Environmental Engineer for Development 13 1 Agriculturist 21 1 Taxation 25 1 PhD St. Agriculture & Dvnt. 38 1 Gardener (MSc) Risk and Protection a)Environmental Protection (EP) 12 1 Environmental Engineer 17 1 Unemployed EP and catastrophism 6 1 Lecturer Ecology EM 32 1 Teacher 51 1 Postgraduate Student b) Of cultural diversity 31 1 Postgraduate Student IR as ineffective 10 1 Student 24 1 Student Integration of concepts or the need for it 7 1 Student 11 1 Consultant RD 18 1 Student 26 1 Student 34 1 PhD Student Env. Mgment. Difficulties for integration a) Incompatibility of interests 10 1 Student 40 1 Project co-ordinator (SD) b) Financial economic effectiveness' imperative 25 1 PhD St. Agriculture Devent. 30 1 Postgraduate Student 33 1 PhD Student c) Political manipulation 44 1 Post. St. Environment 46 1 Lecturer 38 47 1 PhD Student 48 1 Anthropologist d) Semiotic blur 24 1 Student 50 1 PhD Student Education: Dynamism of the concepts 37 1 Postgraduate Student 45 1 Environmental Manager 47 1 PhD Student 39 Table 4 Q4 - Should or should not environmental managers (EM) get involved in territorial ordering process in Amazon? RESPONSE - ARGUMENT SURVEY No. NVA VA Profession Yes 4 1 PhD St. Evolutionary Genetics In fact they are 22 1 Anthropologist Unsure 52 1 Lecturer: IT & Development 32 1 Teacher Question into Question 6 1 Lecturer Ecology EM 31 1 Postgraduate St Indigenous Peoples as EM 27 1 Anthropologist Yes, for Env. protection (catastrophism) 32 1 Teacher 33 1 PhD Student 42 1 Biologist Yes, EM are the ones (better able that IP) 12 1 Environmental Engineer 18 1 Student 21 1 Taxation 28 1 Lecturer 34 1 PhD student 36 1 Research Engineer 46 1 Lecturer 53 1 Journalist EM provide solutions/ take decisions 23 1 Designer 35 1 Lecturer 38 1 Gardener Yes but listening to others 5 1 Civil Servant 53 1 Journalist If Indigenous Peoples direct EM or projects 1 1 Lecturer: Env. Sociology 10 1 Student 14 1 Economist 41 1 PhD Student EM have equal rights to other stakeholders 2 1 PhD St. Biology 6 1 Lecturer Ecology EM 7 1 Student 29 1 Anthropologist 44 1 Post. 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Elecciones en ItaliaPor tercera vez, Silvio Berlusconi será primer ministro de Italia. El Partido del Pueblo de la Libertad (PDL), de derecha, aliado a la Liga Norte, en la Cámara de Diputados obtuvo 340 bancas, frente a 241 del Partido Democrático, de Walter Veltroni, de centroizquierda, en coalición con el Partido de Italia de los Valores (IDV).Entre las primeras decisiones que tomará como jefe de Gobierno se encuentran: la integración de su próximo gabinete, la crisis de la basura en Nápoles, el problema de la privatización de Alitalia, entre otros. Diferentes medios informan al respecto:"El País" de Madrid informa: "Italia vota a ritmo lento. Colas en los colegios de Roma, donde los electores deben rellenar cinco papeletas distintas":http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/Italia/vota/ritmo/lento/elpepuint/20080413elpepuint_4/TesItalia elige entre dos mundos.La abstención de la izquierda puede abrir la puerta al regreso de Berlusconi:http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/Italia/elige/mundos/elpepiint/20080413elpepiint_1/Tes"El Universal" de México publica: "El 'Obama italiano' enfrenta hoy en las urnas a Berlusconi":http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/57443.html"Times" informa: "Berlusconi appears headed for third term as Italian PM":http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article3744594.ece"La Nación" nos informa: "Los sondeos a boca de urna marcan una leve ventaja de Berlusconi":http://www.lanacion.com.ar/exterior/nota.asp?nota_id=1004269"CNN" publica: "Berlusconi to form new cabinet this week":http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/04/15/italy.berlusconi.ap/index.htmlBerlusconi realizó los primeros anuncios.El Cavaliere develó el nombre del futuro canciller y se mostró en favor del federalismo; el escrutinio final confirmó la mayoría absoluta en ambas cámaras, "La Nación" publica:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/exterior/nota.asp?nota_id=1004539Italia: arrasó Berlusconi y recuperó el poder.Gobernará con mayoría absoluta en las cámaras:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/edicionimpresa/exterior/nota.asp?nota_id=1004504"The Economist" publica: "Return of the jester":http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11022014Berlusconi ensalza la xenofobia. El primer ministro propone cerrar las fronteras y crear campos de detención - Opina que el Ejecutivo español es 'demasiado rosa' por el número de mujeres, "El País" de Madrid publica: http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/Berlusconi/ensalza/xenofobia/elpepuint/20080416elpepiint_1/Tes"Le Monde" publica: "Silvio Berlusconi n'exclut pas une solution avec Air France-KLM concernant Alitalia":http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2008/04/16/silvio-berlusconi-n-exclut-pas-une-solution-avec-air-france-klm-con"El Mercurio" de Chile informa: "Primer Ministro electo en Italia da lineamientos de su gobierno: Berlusconi anuncia lucha contra impuestos y la delincuencia":http://diario.elmercurio.com/2008/04/16/internacional/_portada/noticias/D901D106-B807-4045-9281-DEE6933B43B7.htm?id={D901D106-B807-4045-9281-DEE6933B43B7}"La Nación" analiza al nuevo primer ministro: "El polémico magnate que reconquistó a los italianos":http://www.lanacion.com.ar/edicionimpresa/exterior/nota.asp?nota_id=1004506 AMERICA LATINA¡SOS! Ingrid sigue viva .La Iglesia mantiene latente la llama de un acuerdo con las FARC."El País" de Madrid informa: http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/SOS/Ingrid/sigue/viva/elpepuint/20080413elpepiint_5/TesRaul's Cuba tweaks housing, wage rules. Castro legalizes private titles to government homes, ends wage limits, "MSNBC" publica:http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24074142/"Miami Herald" informa: "Fidel: I don't like recent reforms":http://www.miamiherald.com/579/story/498495.html"El Universal" de México informa: "Crea Chávez comando general de reservistas":http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/57439.html"The Economist" informa: "Hugo Chávez seeks to nationalise the cement and steel industries":http://www.economist.com/world/la/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11021288"Time" informa: "Venezuela Hikes Taxes on Crude Oil":http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1731501,00.html"Miami Herald" publica: "Venezuelan TV may be fined for showing 'The Simpsons'":http://www.miamiherald.com/news/americas/story/498522.htmlTensión en Haití, diferentes medios nos informan:"El Universal": "Destituyen a premier en Haití y bajan el precio del arroz":http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/57441.html"CNN": "Haitian prime minister ousted over high food prices":http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/04/12/haiti.ap/index.html"El País": " La violencia en Haití se cobra la vida de un soldado de la ONU":http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/violencia/Haiti/cobra/vida/soldado/ONU/elpepuint/20080413elpepuint_3/Tes"MSNBC": "U.N. soldier killed in Haiti's riots over food. Senators fire PM over turmoil; rising price of rice led to crisis and cost cut":http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24072532/Se endurecen los cruces entre el Gobierno y el campo.Alberto Fernández dijo que "no es fácil hablar con quienes desabastecieron el país"; Buzzi advirtió que "no hay margen para dilatar" definiciones y que "no hay confianza" en las bases; la reunión en Agricultura se postergó para esta tarde, "La Nación" informa:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/nota.asp?nota_id=1004540 ESTADOS UNIDOS Visita del Papa Benedicto XVI a los Estados Unidos, informan al respecto diferentes medios:"MSNBC" publica: "Benedict XVI ready to meet America.Unwavering — but positive — message: Religious values matter":http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24087062/"El Mercurio" de Chile publica: "Benedicto XVI promete tomar medidas para evitar a los pederastas en el sacerdocio":http://diario.elmercurio.com/2008/04/16/internacional/_portada/noticias/A60B4529-205A-42C5-84DF-885C8687B17B.htm?id={A60B4529-205A-42C5-84DF-885C8687B17B}"El País" de Madrid publica: "El Papa pide a Bush diplomacia para resolver los conflictos internacionales":http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/Papa/pide/Bush/diplomacia/resolver/conflictos/internacionales/elppgl/20080416elpepuint_13/TesVarios medios informan sobre la campaña electoral estadounidense:"El Universal" de México informa: "Obama enfrenta lluvia de críticas":http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/57436.htmlWhite House urges Carter not to meet Hamas leaderhttp://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/10/carter.hamas/index.html"The Economist" publica: "Welcome to the Super Bowl. Post-industrial Pennsylvania will decide whether Hillary Clinton can continue with her presidential bid":http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11017667"El Mercurio" de Chile informa: "Hillary aventaja por 6 puntos a Obama en Pennsylvania":http://diario.elmercurio.com/2008/04/16/internacional/internacional/noticias/CCCF4673-B7B6-42BB-9A29-D4ADC8FB74F5.htm?id={CCCF4673-B7B6-42BB-9A29-D4ADC8FB74F5}"El País" de Madrid informa: "El Supremo de EE UU avala las ejecuciones por inyección letal":http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/Supremo/EE/UU/avala/ejecuciones/inyeccion/letal/elpepuint/20080416elpepuint_22/TesEUROPAZapatero anunció su nuevo gabinete, en el que hay más ministras que ministros, "El País" de Madrid informa: "Mayoría femenina, en gobierno español":http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/57437.html"MSNBC" publica: "France: Pirates held, hostages freed off Somalia. French troops arrest six after release of 30 crew members held for a week":http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24062328/STEPHAN SBERRO para "El Universal" de México analiza: "Holanda y el choque de civilizaciones":http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/internacional/57442.html Balkan politics"The Economist" analiza la situacion política de los Balcanes: "The troubles of European integration":http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11022023Designan a Putin presidente del partido oficial. Fue elegido por unanimidad como nuevo líder de Rusia Unida para los próximos cuatro años, "La Nación" informa:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/exterior/nota.asp?nota_id=1004537Putin ordena estrechar lazos con los territorios secesionistas de Georgia. Moscú quiere pasar factura por la ampliación de la OTAN y la independencia de Kosovo con el apoyo a Osetia del Sur y Abjazia, "El País" de Madrid publica:http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/Putin/ordena/estrechar/lazos/territorios/secesionistas/Georgia/elpepuint/20080416elpepuint_20/TesASIA – PACÍFICO Y MEDIO ORIENTEElecciones en Nepal:Millions vote in historic Nepal election.Voters undeterred by violence, clashes that kill two,"MSNBC" informa:http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24017601/"The Economist" publica:http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11021213"Time" publica: "When the Maoists Take Over Nepal":http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1731248,00.html"CNN" informa: "U.N. probe sought into Bhutto slaying":http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/04/15/bhutto.uniquiry/index.htmlContinua el conficto entre Tibet y China, nos informan:"MSNBC": "9 monks accused of bombing Tibet building. China says they planted homemade device in government offices":http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24088206/"The Economist": "Torch song trilogy. A lament for Tibet, sung in three Western cities and heard with fury in China":http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11016360"China Daily" publica: "China's economy grows 10.6% in Q1":http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-04/16/content_6621746.htm"CNN": "Bombings kill at least 60 in Iraq":http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/04/15/iraq.mainbombs/index.html"Time" publica: "Al-Qaeda in Iraq: Not Done Yet":http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1731473,00.html"El País" de Madrid publica: "Una bomba mata a nueve personas en una mezquita iraní":http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/bomba/mata/personas/mezquita/irani/elpepuint/20080413elpepiint_9/Tes AFRICAZimbawe: continua tensión frente a elecciones presidenciales. Diferentes medios informan:"El País" de Madrid informa: "Zimbabue volverá a repetir el escrutinio de las presidenciales en 23 distritos":http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/Zimbabue/volvera/repetir/escrutinio/presidenciales/23/distritos/elpepuint/20080413elpepuint_1/Tes"MSNBC" publica: "Zimbabwean police ban political rallies. Crisis deepens as opposition plans strike, Mugabe mulls summit snub":http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24065537/z< "CNN" nos informa: "Opposition warns of genocide in Zimbabwe":http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/04/15/zimbabwe.election/index.htmlElecciones en Kenia: El Gobierno y la oposición de Kenia alcanzan finalmente un acuerdo para el reparto del poder.El presidente Mwai Kibaki y el líder opositor Raila Odinga se reúnen para zanjar las diferencias, y zanjar la crisis política"El País" de Madrid publica:http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/Gobierno/oposicion/Kenia/alcanzan/finalmente/acuerdo/reparto/poder/elpepuint/20080412elpepuint_13/Tes"The Economist" informa: "The other dodgy election":http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11020433"Time" analiza: "Can Kenyan Power-Share Plan Work?":http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1730694,00.html"CNN" publica: "African air crash kills 75; 15 survive":http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/04/15/congo.crash/index.htmlECONOMIA"The Economist" en su informe semanal: "Business this week":http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11033501&CFID=2189255&CFTOKEN=75713319"MSNBC" publica: "World's economic leaders look to avert crises. Top economic powers endorse 'rapid implementation' of plan ":http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24070726/"La Nación" publica: "Nuevo récord del precio del petróleo. El valor del barril en Nueva York, en Londres y en Viena tocó nuevos precios máximos; influyen la caída del dólar y los temores a la falta de suministro":http://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/nota.asp?nota_id=1004541OTRAS NOTICIAS En su sección"EcoSolutions la "CNN" informa:"Lake in Chile empties from melting glacier"http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/04/10/eco.lake.ap/index.html"Australia launches project to bury carbon dioxide"http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/04/02/australia.carbon.capture.ap/index.html
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According to the latest polls,[1] the Labour Party is expected to win the British elections scheduled for 4 July. Keir Starmer may therefore lead the first non-Conservative government in the UK since 2010 and, most importantly, since the decision to leave the European Union following the 2016 Brexit referendum. The activation, for the first time in the history of the EU, of the clause in Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) regulating the withdrawal of one of its member states, was an unprecedented event, followed by long political negotiations to regulate the divorce between Brussels and London. During that phase, the UK attitude was driven by the 'Global Britain' approach that dominated the Leave Campaign, revolving around the notion of the UK as an international power no longer held back by EU rules and procedures. The EU-UK relationship deteriorated profoundly amidst tensions and mutual accusations, driving them apart despite sharing numerous strategic goals and common interests. The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed with the government led by Boris Johnson in December 2020 deliberately excluded matters of primary importance, such as foreign policy, security and defence cooperation, which became a priority following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Moscow's actions prompted London and Brussels to establish an initial form of informal dialogue on these issues, but without ever institutionalising their coordination. Starmer and some leading Labour figures, however, have already publicly expressed their intention to negotiate a strong agreement with the EU on foreign and security matters.[2] The outcome of the July elections could signal a new start in the relationship between Brussels and London, ending the prolonged post-Brexit conflict.The Trade and Cooperation Agreement The EU-UK TCA sets out preferential arrangements in areas such as trade in goods and services (with limited mutual market access), digital trade, intellectual property, public procurement, aviation and road transport, energy, fisheries, social security coordination, law enforcement and judicial cooperation in criminal matters, while simultaneously sanctioning the end of the free movement of persons between the EU and the UK and the exit from the European Single Market.[3] Most significantly, it excludes formal cooperation between the two parties in security and defence matters, although it encourages the establishment of regular dialogues on countering the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (Article 765), small arms and light weapons and other conventional weapons (Article 766), the most serious crimes of concern to the international community (Article 767), cyber issues (Article 703) and counter-terrorism (Article 768).[4] The choice by Boris Johnson's government to leave such sensitive matters out of the scope of the TCA was a political one. Indeed, the previous government, led by Theresa May, had begun negotiating a post-Brexit agreement with the EU on defence and foreign policy cooperation. Johnson's decision to exclude these areas from the TCA was linked to the original idea of Brexit: that is, to supposedly allow the UK to regain total control in matters most sensitive to public opinion, such as security and migration. Johnson's vision was to pursue bilateral relations with individual member states rather than with the EU to relaunch the image of a 'Global Britain' as an international player. The outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022, however, demonstrated how short-sighted this calculation was.The war against Ukraine as a (partial) game-changer The invasion of Ukraine profoundly changed the scenario and put foreign and security policy back at the centre of the relationship between London and Brussels. The EU and the UK have actively contributed to supporting Kyiv militarily, economically and politically. Ad hoc UK-EU coordination in sanctions, intelligence and the training of the Ukrainian armed forces intensified, even though with mixed results. Cooperation on sanctions against Russia proved the most successful, thanks to continuous exchange of information, cooperation in drawing up sanctions lists and support in implementation. In light of such success, a recent report by the European Affairs Committee of the House of Lords, advised the UK government to make these mechanisms permanent and to create new formats of structured dialogue for cooperation on foreign policy issues.[5] In terms of military assistance, the EU and UK have provided extensive support to Ukraine both financially and in training. EU member states had allocated a total of 28 billion euros by mid-March 2024, 5.6 billion euros from the EU's European Peace Facility (EPF). According to the House of Commons, the UK had committed a total of 7.6 billion pounds by the beginning of May for the 2024-2025 financial year.[6] The direct cooperation between the EU and the UK in defence has, however, been complicated by the British preference for bilateral relations.[7] Moreover, London remains sceptical about the EU's criteria for regulating the participation of third countries in defence industrial projects, for example, membership of the single market in order to be eligible for funds from the European Defence Agency (EDA). To date, the UK has demonstrated a tepid interest in the Military Mobility project,[8] which forms part of the EU's Permanent Structured Cooperation in defence (PESCO). At the institutional level, coordination between London and Brussels also seems to have yielded modest results. Despite Liz Truss' participation in the EU Foreign Affairs Council in March 2022, there have been no subsequent direct high-level political interactions between the two sides. Cooperation developed on a purely informal basis or in the context of broader, US-dominated alliances, such as the G7 and NATO. In the case of the training of Ukrainian troops, for instance, the main forum has been the US-led Ukraine Defence Contact Group – the Ramstein group. Looking ahead, however, these fora do not seem fully adequate to replace a cooperation agreement between the EU and the UK, given the partial divergence of objectives between the two sides within them.[9] In the case of NATO, for instance, the EU used the Ukrainian crisis as a catalyst to boost its role in defence industrial initiatives and in the joint development of capabilities with the Atlantic Alliance; this approach, however, created tensions with London, which has always been interested in the development of European capabilities only within NATO. Another forum for dialogue has been the European Political Community (EPC), which was established in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and took its first steps as a multilateral diplomatic forum aimed at promoting political dialogue and cooperation on the European continent.[10] However, the EPC has not promoted any concrete steps toward more structured formal relations. Moreover, the next meeting will be hosted by the UK on 18 July, immediately after the Westminster election and while the arrangements for the new European Commission and European Parliament majority are underway, with the real risk of limited participation and an ill-defined agenda. As a forum without formal structures, the EPC is largely dependent on the active participation of the various leaders, which makes its future uncertain.What future for the Westminster-Brussels relationship The war against Ukraine undoubtedly represented a turning point for EU-UK relations in terms of foreign, security and defence policy, without, however, achieving a significant step change in the formalisation of their cooperation. In light of the challenges posed to European security by the recent wave of international crises, from Ukraine to Gaza, a structured agreement is most helpful to regulate cooperation between the EU and UK. While the Conservatives always preferred an informal approach, the Labour Party has already expressed its intention to negotiate a strong agreement with Brussels, seeking closer coordination on "military, economic, climate, health, cyber, and energy security issues".[11] This structured dialogue would be developed through regular access to EU Foreign Affairs Council meetings, while at the bilateral level, the stated aim is to develop closer bilateral relations with France, Germany, Ireland and Poland.[12] Such an agreement would primarily facilitate the resolution of the limitations that have already been identified in the informal cooperation mechanisms, facilitating the expansion of the scope of the areas covered, thereby reducing inefficiencies and cooperation problems.[13] Secondly, it would mitigate the influence of political contingencies. In the context of the Ukrainian crisis, the urgency of the situation enabled effective ad hoc coordination. However, in the long term, the establishment of formalised agreements would be conducive to greater continuity and stability, providing clear direction and impetus to drive issues of shared interest. This is all the more necessary in light of the upcoming US elections. A possible new Trump administration could significantly change US engagement in major international crises, altering the balance in those forums that have been strategic for the EU and the UK. London and Brussels may be required to assume greater responsibility for European security, for which informal dialogue may prove inadequate. Despite the benefits, however, there remain some knots that need to be cleared up, especially on the defence side. Indeed, it must be remembered that, from the EU perspective, the UK is first and foremost a third country. If, on the one hand, the EU considers London as an important security partner with considerable capabilities, on the other hand, it cannot afford to grant a privileged relationship compared to what is offered to other (more) friendly third countries, as it would risk devaluing the Union's own membership. Brussels probably wants to avoid a repetition of what happened in the past when the British adopted non-dialogue positions on the integration process of defence policies. Notably, even the Labour Party is adopting a cautious approach on these matters. While it proposed "a more formal partnership agreement" on sanctions and "new mechanisms for cooperation on hybrid threats", energy security, organised crime, intelligence exchanges, and new technologies between EU and UK", vague statements have been included on defence such as a "properly bespoke relationship".[14] From London's perspective, the most significant challenge appears to be the EU regulations governing the involvement of third-party actors in defence integration projects. This is exemplified by the PESCO initiative, where the UK would be unable to influence strategic planning but would be obliged to align itself with the decisions of EU member states. These challenges notwithstanding, a structured agreement appears to be most beneficial for both parties, as demonstrated by the response to the war against Ukraine. The European Parliament has also recently welcomed a greater institutionalisation of the relationship, suggesting the participation of British representatives in the Foreign Affairs Committee on an ad hoc basis. After the election, the first political choice that will have to be made concerns the degree of formalisation of the relationship. The TCA is largely a technical agreement without substantial political input, which makes it difficult to solve issues that may arise. A more structured approach would require a minimum degree of political coordination. In this sense, the EU has experience in 'political dialogues' with third countries for cooperation on foreign and security policy that integrate trade deals with "varying degrees of formalisation" of political interaction.[15] A more agile alternative could be a joint statement which commits the two parties to regular political input and meetings. However this coordination will be framed, the outcome of the July election in the UK is likely to offer a window of opportunity for greater dialogue between the UK and the EU on foreign and security policy that should not be wasted.Luca Cinciripini is a Researcher in the EU, Politics and Institutions programme at the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI).[1] Economist, "How Will Britain Vote on July 4th?", in The Economist, 22 May 2024, https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/05/22/how-will-britain-vote-on-july-4th.[2] George Parker, "Keir Starmer Pledges to Seek Major Rewrite of Brexit Deal", in Financial Times, 17 September 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/6bdc4e88-c2ed-44ad-aa7d-c70bc358e027.[3] European Commission website: The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement, https://commission.europa.eu/node/4617_en.[4] Jannike Wachowiak, Richard G. Whitman and Joelle Grogan, "UK-EU Foreign, Security & Defence Cooperation", in UK in a Changing Europe Reports, 27 March 2024, p. 9, https://ukandeu.ac.uk/?p=56983.[5] House of Lords European Affairs Committee, "The Ukraine Effect: The Impact of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine on the UK–EU Relationship", in HL Papers, No. 48 (31 January 2024), paragraph 302, https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/43134/documents/214562/default.[6] Ian Bond and Luigi Scazzieri, "Working Hand in Hand? EU-UK Co-operation in Supporting Ukraine", in CER Policy Briefs, May 2024, p. 3, https://www.cer.eu/node/10918.[7] Cleo Davies and Jannik Wachowiak, "UK-EU Relations Tracker Q1 2024", in UK in a Changing Europe Reports, 9 May 2024, p. 9, https://ukandeu.ac.uk/?p=57362.[8] The project aims at standardising cross-border military transport procedures and the movement of military personnel and assets within the borders of the EU, avoiding long bureaucratic procedures. See PESCO website: Military Mobility (MM), https://www.pesco.europa.eu/project/military-mobility.[9] Richard G. Whitman, "The Role of the UK in a New European Security Architecture", in Heinrich Böll Stiftung Analysis, 26 January 2024, https://www.boell.de/en/node/76635.[10] Luca Cinciripini, "Virtues and Limitations of the European Political Community after the Granada Summit", in IAI Commentaries, No. 23|56 (October 2023), https://www.iai.it/en/node/17729.[11] David Lammy, "The Case for Progressive Realism", in Foreign Affairs, Vol. 103, No. 3 (May/June 2024), p. 125-135 at p. 131, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/node/1131579.[12] Ibid.[13] Benjamin Martill and Monika Sus, "UK-EU Security Cooperation after Ukraine", in Judy Dempsey's Strategic Europe, 25 January 2024, https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/strategic-europe/2024/01/uk-eu-security-cooperation-after-ukraine.[14] Jannike Wachowiak, Richard G. Whitman and Joelle Grogan, "UK-EU Foreign, Security & Defence Cooperation", cit., p. 14.[15] With the EU-Canada Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) "being a particularly developed example". Ibid., p. 17.
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An interesting issue with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is their status as a direct liability of the central bank. This distinction rarely gets the attention of the broader public, but it's an important distinction because it could lead to a complete destabilization of the financial system as we know it. For example, a CBDC would likely worsen bank runs, lead people to leave the banking system, and increase the cost of loans. Broadly speaking, this direct liability feature is one of the main reasons that a CBDC represents a radical departure from the existing financial system. What Is a Liability? For those that might not be familiar, the term "liability" is used in finance to describe something that person A owes to person B. In contrast, an "asset" is something that person A owns outright. From here, we can see that something—such as a loan or a deposit—can simultaneously be a liability for one person and an asset for another person. The difference between what is owned (assets) and what is owed (liabilities) is referred to as "equity." Generally, equity is the residual value that belongs to the owners of the bank. If we step back to accounting 101, we can model the relationship between assets, liabilities, and equities in a simplified balance sheet for a bank (see Figure 1). There might be different items in each category, but, ultimately, assets should equal liabilities plus equities. This relationship is often referred to as "the accounting equation."
Whose Liability Is It? When people spend money digitally today with a debit card, the money in the corresponding checking account is a liability of the bank (e.g., Bank of America or Capital One). Similarly, when people spend money digitally today with a prepaid card, the balance is a liability of the private company that issued the card (e.g., Visa or Mastercard). In either case, the financial institution owes the customer the funds that are deposited in the account. When a customer transfers that money to make a payment, the financial institution that has the liability is responsible for transferring the money. In the case of a CBDC, however, the digital money would be a liability of the central bank itself. That is, it would be the government that has the direct responsibility to hold, transfer, or otherwise remit those funds to the ostensible owner. This feature creates a direct link between citizens and the central bank. Why Does a CBDC's Liability Status Matter? As mentioned in the initial accounting primer, something can be a liability to one person and an asset to another. However, something cannot be a liability owned by two separate parties (Note: the word "separate" is used here to exclude agreements like joint partnerships). In the context of a CBDC, this distinction means that a CBDC cannot be a liability on both the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and a bank's balance sheet. That condition matters because the basic business model for banks has long involved a strategy of using deposits (i.e., their liabilities) to fund loans (i.e., their assets). If the number of deposits is cut down as people put their money in CBDC wallets instead of bank accounts, then the number of loans will be cut down, too (see Figure 2). As the supply of private loans decreases (Q1 to Q2), the price of those loans will start to increase (P1 to P2). In other words, this issue is about more than just bank profits. Yes, some banks would likely go out of business or merge with larger banks as the price of loans increases and cuts into profit lines, but this disruption would also make loans more expensive for everyone.
Why Would People Choose a CBDC Over a Bank Account? There are many civil liberty concerns that might make people hesitant to adopt a CBDC. However, setting those concerns aside, there are reasons people may still be swayed to use a CBDC. Consider two situations that people may face in financial markets: a time of panic during a bank run and a time of peaceful planning during a period of financial stability. Bank runs are instances when customers lose faith in their bank for one reason or another (often due to bad news about the bank's finances) and, as the name suggests, run to the bank to withdraw all their money. In the past, that primarily meant people ran to get their money out in cash. Yet, as far as a run for cash is considered, the time waiting in line, the amount of cash available in the vault, the difficulty in carrying cash, and the security risk of storing cash all act as frictions that slow down runs. In contrast, as explained by the Federal Reserve itself, "The ability to quickly convert other forms of money—including deposits at commercial banks—into CBDC could make runs on financial firms more likely or more severe." In other words, rather than run to the bank to get physical cash, a person could instead choose to transfer their balances into a CBDC without leaving their home. Not only that, but the money might be kept as a CBDC for prolonged periods because it would essentially be digital money that is "100 percent insured" and, unlike cash, people would not need to worry about storing, securing, or carrying a large sack of money. While running for cash was more common in the past, technological advances have since led to digital runs where people instead wired or otherwise transferred their money directly to another bank instead of withdrawing cash (see Panel A in Figure 3). To be clear, the speed of these digital runs does pose a challenge. Yet, there is a silver lining with this development: this type of run is largely limited to the initial institution in question and does not affect the larger supply of deposits. Rather than leave the system, the money transferred flows into other institutions and stays within the financial system. The problem posed by a CBDC in this scenario is that people would instead transfer their money out of the financial system and into their digital wallets and purses—the digital equivalent of placing one's money under a mattress (see Panel B in Figure 3).
It is also likely that incentives could be used—even without a crisis or failure to spark a bank run—to encourage people to leave the existing financial system. For example, some CBDC proponents have called for CBDCs to offer things like "high interest compared with ordinary bank accounts and full government backing with no need for deposit insurance." For many people, the allure of above-market interest rates would likely make transferring to a CBDC a quick decision. In fact, proponents have specifically recognized that these offerings would crowd out alternatives in the private sector. When weighing the costs and benefits, one proponent went so far as to say that disrupting the banking system is the number one advantage of creating a CBDC even though doing so would lead to "profound systemic changes that threaten entire lines of business within banks and credit card companies." Theory is not the only source for concern when considering how government incentives might lead people to leave the banking system. For those that might not recall, the U.S. Postal Savings System operated from 1911 to 1966 on the premise of offering "safe and convenient places for the deposit of savings at a comparatively low rate of interest." That low rate of interest, however, was set in stone by bureaucrats and later became comparatively high when market rates fell during the Great Depression—a period that coincided with a significant number of bank failures. So in addition to people leaving banks in pursuit of a higher return, studies have shown that other people moved their money to the Postal Savings System directly in response to the announcement of local bank suspensions. From 1929 to 1933, the amount of money deposited in the Postal Savings System had increased nearly eightfold from $154 million to $1.2 billion. So both in times of panic and times of peace, a CBDC could destabilize the financial system. Can't You Just Store CBDC at the Bank? With a general understanding of both liabilities and bank runs in hand, let's dive deeper and explore how a CBDC might be used by the public. A common question that comes up when discussing CBDC risks is: Why can't people just keep their CBDC at the bank? There are really three options for a consumer looking to store their CBDC—partially depending on what CBDC model is ultimately used. With a retail CBDC provided directly by the central bank, people would store their CBDC in accounts directly managed by the Federal Reserve. That means every dollar held as a CBDC is a dollar that has either been taken out of the banking system or converted from cash. Any dollar stored as a CBDC here would be off-limits to banks. This arrangement sort of turns the Federal Reserve into a payments processor like PayPal or Cash App. However, rather than solely handling money like those services do today, the Federal Reserve would also be providing money directly to the public—another deviation from the current system. With an intermediated CBDC supported by private intermediaries, people would store their CBDC in a digital wallet that banks (or other private institutions) maintain on behalf of the Federal Reserve. Although the bank would incur costs for things like processing payments, cybersecurity, and regulatory compliance, putting a CBDC into this wallet does not mean that the CBDC becomes the bank's liability. Rather, storing a CBDC in this wallet is more akin to storing valuables in a safety deposit box. Banks will maintain the account, but they can't touch what is inside or have ownership of it—as ultimately, those accounts are being maintained on behalf of the Federal Reserve. With either of those two CBDC designs, people could instead exchange their CBDC for bank deposits—though, it's a bit of a roundabout process. Behind the scenes, the bank would send the customer's CBDC to the Federal Reserve in exchange for a credit that would then be used to balance a newly created deposit of equal value. This method would allow banks to use deposit accounts to fund loans and consumers to continue using the financial system like they already do, but the owner of the account would no longer be using a CBDC. A payment from that account would be a regular debit transaction like what already happens—without a CBDC—over 240 million times a day in the United States. This last option is akin to what happens with cash, or paper money, that is deposited at a bank. When someone deposits cash, they no longer get to use an anonymous, physical money. Instead, they spend money by initiating transfers to and from a deposit account. Exchanging a CBDC for a deposit account would resemble this process as people would no longer have access to the features of the CBDC. Hold On, Isn't Cash a Direct Liability of the Central Bank? At this point, some people might still be wondering how a CBDC poses a unique threat when cash is also a direct liability of the central bank and involves a similar exchange process when deposited at banks. It's a good question to consider. First, the existence of cash does facilitate disruptions to the financial system considering it gives consumers a final means of payments that they can run to. In fact, similar arguments could be made about physical gold during the gold standard era. Yet, a CBDC poses a unique threat because consumers would likely be able to pull out their money faster than ever before and store the funds easily without significant storage or security costs. It's for this reason that the Federal Reserve said a CBDC would make bank runs "more likely" and "more severe." The digital nature of a CBDC would increase the impact of a run and delay the return to normal relative to cash (see Figure 4).
The CBDC Tradeoff Many others have also recognized that the risk of destabilizing the financial system is a serious threat posed by CBDCs. George Selgin (Cato Institute), Andrea Maechler (Swiss National Bank), Greg Baer (Bank Policy Institute), Rob Morgan (American Bankers Association), and researchers at the European Central Bank, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and University of Michigan have all described similar concerns about CBDCs destabilizing the financial system. In fact, the Federal Reserve has acknowledged that the introduction of a CBDC, "could reduce the aggregate amount of deposits in the banking system, which could in turn increase bank funding expenses, and reduce credit availability or raise credit costs for households and businesses." Not ready to throw in the towel, some CBDC proponents have proposed making CBDCs intentionally bad to discourage and limit their use. For instance, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have proposed not paying interest on CBDCs, limiting the amount of CBDC a person can hold, or limiting the amount of CBDC a person can accumulate over time. In other words, there won't be interest payments, total CBDC holdings will be limited, and the amount that can be transferred over time will be limited. William Luther, director of AIER's Sound Money Project, has described this issue as the "CBDC Tradeoff." Consider two extremes. On the one hand, a CBDC could pay interest, offer subsidized payments, and even tax discounts. These offerings would lead people to leave the banking system, but it would mean that the CBDC gains enough users to maintain a stable network. On the other hand, a CBDC could pay no interest, have some low cap like $10,000, and restrict how many transactions people can make. In this case, people probably wouldn't leave their bank any time soon, but then the CBDC probably would not have enough users to be considered a worthwhile effort. In short, the tradeoff becomes a question between making something people will want at the expense of the larger financial system or making something no one will want at the expense of taxpayer resources. Faced with this tradeoff, the best choice is to not introduce a CBDC at all. Conclusion Let's quickly recap the ground that has been covered here. Introducing a CBDC risks destabilizing the banking system and worsening panics. The Federal Reserve tried to lessen that risk by "including" banks in the process by proposing an intermediated CBDC. Yet, with an intermediated CBDC, banks would have to cover regulatory and overhead costs to maintain CBDC accounts even though they would have no loan revenue from those funds since the CBDC is still a liability of the central bank. Moreover, shrinking the supply of deposits would likely lead to costlier credit. That means loans will be more expensive for everyone. Today's financial system is not perfect, but it usually works so well that people rarely stop to ask: "Whose liability is it anyway?" Yet, being a direct liability of the central bank is a defining feature of a CBDC. In practice, that trait means destabilizing the financial system is a defining feature of a CBDC. Consequently, the risk posed to financial markets is just another reason why Congress should prohibit the Federal Reserve and Treasury from issuing a CBDC.
This doctoral dissertation evaluated the use of sustainable biomass sources (agri-food waste and residues, and industry streams) in anaerobic digestion with the goal of replacing maize silage in a large-scale biogas production and investigated alternative pathways of biogas utilisation incorporated in energy systems operating with high share of renewable energy sources. The methods applied in the research included elements of chemical and mechanical engineering in order to create a holistic approach that could be applicable to various biogas plant cases. Experimental investigations showed the biogas yield of residue lignocellulosic biomass of 0.192-0.275 Nm3/kgTS, and bulk food waste of 0.252-0.566 Nm3/kgTS. Meat and bone meal and wastewater sludge were shown to be co-substrates with antagonistic effect in biogas production, however they increased the reaction rate of overall degradation. Pyrolysis of digestate showed lower energy requirements and higher biochar yield (38%) compared to direct pyrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass (24%). The gate fee business model for receiving biodegradable waste and the implementation of new technologies, namely biogas upgrading, are the most likely options for biogas plants in the future. A robust mathematical model of power-to-gas integration showed that the installation of 18 MWel of wind and 9 MWel of photovoltaics with an additional import of 16 GWhel from the grid could produce 36 GWh of renewable methane which could be economically competitive with natural gas if the feedstock gate fee in the proposed system was -120 €/t. Geospatial availability of an energy potential of biogas production from examined feedstocks, combined with Life Cycle Assessment of the alternative biogas utilisation pathways created the synergistic effects in terms of reduced environmental burdens by 4-36 times compared to the current operation. Based on the applied methods and outcomes of the doctoral thesis, the research hypothesis "Applying holistic approach on biogas plants, both on the production and utilisation side, can increase economic profitability and environmental benefits over current subsidised operation" was tested and confirmed. The economic feasibility of biogas plants after exiting subsidy schemes will include the implementation of the gate fee business model for substrates, new investments in biomass pretreatment lines, increase of on-site biogas storage capacity and additional investments in renewable methane production system, primarily biomethane. Environmental burdens of such actions will be reduced through a contribution of biowaste management on urban and rural level, combined with the utilization of biogas for production of biomethane as a replacement to natural gas. ; Biomasa je obnovljiv izvor energije (OIE) te ima važnu ulogu u diverzifikaciji opskrbe energijom u Europskoj Uniji (EU) [1]. Ona doprinosi ravnoteži ugljikovog dioksida (CO2), stvaranju radnih mjesta, smanjenju emisija stakleničkih plinova (eng. Greenhouse gas, GHG) te osiguravanju dostupnosti resursa i njihovom ekonomičnom gospodarenju [2]. U Republici Hrvatskoj biomasa je definirana prema Zakonu o obnovljivim izvorima energije i visokoučinkovitoj kogeneraciji kao "biorazgradivi dio proizvoda, otpada i ostataka biološkog podrijetla iz poljoprivrede (uključujući tvari biljnoga i životinjskoga podrijetla), šumarstva i srodnih proizvodnih djelatnosti, uključujući ribarstvo i akvakulturu, kao i biorazgradivi dio industrijskoga i komunalnog otpada" [3]. Biomasa se može direktno koristiti kao gorivo za dobivanje energije (npr. drvna biomasa u kotlovima), ili se može biokemijskim, kemijskim, ili termokemijskim postupcima pretvoriti u materijal dodane vrijednosti – biogorivo, čime se postiže njezina šira primjenjivost u energetske svrhe [4]. Biogoriva prve generacije dobivena iz prehrambenih usjeva kao uzgojene biomase [5] naišla su na neodobravanje znanstvene zajednice i šire javnosti, primarno zbog korištenja obradivih površina za njihov uzgoj. Napredna biogoriva (druge i treće generacije [5]) proizvedena su iz biomase koja nije kompetitivna s proizvodnjom hrane, a u nju spada otpadna biomasa iz kućanstva i industrije, poljoprivredni ostatci, neprehrambeni usjevi te alge. Ova doktorska disertacija stavlja fokus na korištenje biomase u procesu anaerobne razgradnje za dobivanje bioplina. Cilj istraživanja je ostvariti sinergijski učinak između ekonomičnog korištenja otpadne biomase i proizvodnje energije u sustavima s velikim udjelom OIE kako bi se postiglo smanjenje utjecaja na okoliš u usporedbi s trenutnom praksom u bioplinskim postrojenjima koja uključuje korištenje kukuruzne silaže i proizvodnju električne energije uz zajamčenu otkupnu cijenu. Mjesto nastanka, tip biomase, te njezine količine bitan su faktor za strateško pozicioniranje novih bioplinskih postrojenja, te za planiranje novih lanaca opskrbe sirovinama u postojećim postrojenjima. Geografski informacijski sustav (eng. Geographic Information System, GIS) [6] prepoznat je kao vrijedan alat za mapiranje potencijala izvora biomase, kao i određivanje transportnih udaljenosti od mjesta nastanka biomase do postrojenja. GIS analiza na razini EU pokazala je ukupni energetski potencijal za proizvodnju bioplina iz poljoprivrednih ostataka i životinjske gnojovke na godišnjoj razini jednak 0.7 EJ (oko 195 TWh) [7], što je dvostruko više nego proizvodnja bioplina iz tih supstrata ostvarena u 2016 godini u EU. Primjenom GIS alata na lokalnoj razini u Grčkoj, Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama i Finskoj pokazano je da ekonomski prihvatljive transportne udaljenosti za supstrate mogu varirati između 10 i 40 km [8–10]. Povećanjem radijusa raspoloživosti biomase povećava se i kapacitet postrojenja čime je moguće ostvariti veću proizvodnju obnovljive energije, no istovremeno stvara se dodatan teret na okoliš, kako je još uvijek većina biomase transportirana teretnim vozilima na fosilna goriva [10]. Ono što također treba uzeti u obzir prilikom procjene korištenja biomase u bioplinskom postrojenju je njezina tržišna vrijednost, odnosno plaća li bioplinsko postrojenje za biomasu, ili dobiva naknadu za njezino gospodarenje (eng. Gate fee, GF). U postojećim okvirima proizvodnje bioplina, cijena kukuruzne silaže je između 15 i 40 € po toni sirovine [11], dok alternativni izvori biomase (npr. miješani komunalni biootpad i otpadna hrana) postižu GF u iznosu od -60 do 0 €/tona [11]. Nakon što biomasa uđe u prostor bioplinskog postrojenja, potrebno ju je adekvatno pripremiti za proces anaerobne razgradnje. U tu svrhu mogu se koristiti metode predobrade koje se služe termičkim, mehaničkim, kemijskim ili biološkim postupcima (ili nekim njihovim kombinacijama) [12]. Metode predobrade služe kako bi potaknule proces razgradnje kompleksnih polimernih molekula prisutnih u organskoj tvari, čime se postiže viša konverzija biomase u bioplin [13]. Uspješnost razgradnje biomase te proizvodnje bioplina, kao i stabilnost u procesu određuju se eksperimentalnim mjerenjima, pri čemu se prate procesne varijable kao što su sadržaj suhe tvari (eng. Dry Matter, DM, ili Total Solids, TS), proizvodnja i sastav bioplina, pH, koncentracija hlapljivih masnih kiselina (eng. Volatile Fatty Acids, VFA), ukupni anorganski ugljik (eng. Total Inorganic Carbon, TIC), prisutnost amonijakalnog dušika (eng. Ammonium-nitrogen, NH4-N), koncentracija soli, teških metala i ostalo [14]. Na temelju vrijednosti navedenih procesnih varijabli operatori bioplinskih postrojenja znaju odvija li se proces unutar dozvoljenih vrijednosti te kako reagirati ukoliko je primijećena nestabilnost u procesu. Eksperimentalni podatci također služe za modeliranje kinetike anaerobne razgradnje [15] pri čemu se ovisnosti o kompleksnosti ulaznih podataka i traženih rezultata mogu primijeniti razni kinetički modeli [16–18]. Složeniji modeli zahtijevaju veći broj ulaznih podataka, ali također daju i detaljniji uvid u mehanizam reakcija i otkrivanju tzv. uskog grla procesa koji određuje ukupnu brzinu nastanka bioplina. Osim bioplina, drugi proizvod anaerobne razgradnje je digestat kojeg čine nerazgrađeni ostatci biomase u tekućoj fazi [19]. Tekuća frakcija digestata je obično bogata makronutrijentima – dušikom (N), fosforom (P) i kalijem (K), što ju čini primjenjivom kao gnojivo za tlo [20]. Čvrsta frakcija digestata također sadrži P, ali i zaostali organski ugljik (C) što ga čini prikladnim za poboljšavanje karakteristika tla, kompostiranje [21] ili za neki od oblika energetske oporabe [22]. Prednost korištenja digestata u opisanim načinima leži u činjenici da je njegova tržišna vrijednost mala, tek 2-4 €/t [23]. Proizvedeni bioplin najčešće se koristi kao gorivo u kombiniranoj proizvodnji električne i toplinske energije, kogeneracija (eng. Combined Heat and Power, CHP). Proteklih desetljeća na razini EU mehanizmi subvencija za bioplinske kogeneracije u vidu feed-in-tariffa i feed-in-premija rezultirale su intenzivnom penetracijom bioplina u elektroenergetski sektor [24]. Razina subvencija je definirana na nacionalnoj razini, ali u svim članicama EU nije niža od 80 €/MWhel, što je gotovo dvostruko veći iznos od prosječne veleprodajne tržišne cijene električne energije u EU [25]. Također, ono što je važno napomenuti jest da su subvencije izdane na određeni period (12-20 godina od statusa stjecanja povlaštenog proizvođača električne energije [26]) nakon čega će bioplinska postrojenja morati razmotriti neke druge načine iskorištavanja (eng. Utilisation) bioplina da bi zadržale ekonomski isplativo poslovanje. Prema podatcima Europske udruge za bioplin (eng. European Biogas Association, EBA) u 2020. godini u Europi je bilo instalirano 18,943 bioplinskih postrojenja, od kojih je 18,214 (96%) radilo u kogeneracijskom načinu, a ostalih 4% kao postrojenja za proizvodnju biometana kroz tehnologiju poboljšavanja bioplina (eng. Biogas upgrading) odnosno uklanjanje svih ne-CH4 komponenti bioplina [27]. Ova doktorska disertacija detaljno razlaže inovativnije načine iskorištavanja bioplina u budućim energetskim sustavima, što će uključivati rad kogeneracijskih postrojenja u tržišnim okvirima [28], pretvorbu bioplina u biometan te proizvodnju e-metana kroz implementaciju power-to-gas (P2G) koncepta [29] u sustavima s visokim udjelom energije iz varijabilnih OIE. Primjena procjene životnog ciklusa (eng. Life Cycle Assessment, LCA) [30] može otkriti utjecaje promjene politika sirovina u proizvodnji bioplina i njegovog iskorištavanja u sprezi s budućim energetskim sustavima u odnosu na okoliš. Usporedba LCA performansi za bioplinsko postrojenje koje koristi životinjsku gnojovku i energetske usjeve pokazala je da bioplin za proizvodnju električne energije stvara uštede od oko 300 kgCO2-eq/MWhel, dok upgrading bioplina u biometan i njegovo ubrizgavanje u plinsku mrežu štedi oko 191 kgCO2-eq za proizvedeni MWh biometana [31]. Za preglednije tumačenje opisanih rezultata potrebno je izraziti emisije istom jedinicom, ali i prezentirati podatke o sastavu miksa električne energije (eng. Electricity mix). Za slučaj Irske, LCA je pokazao da integracija P2G koncepta za upgrading bioplina, uz korištenje električnog miksa od 85% OIE, može rezultirati smanjenjem GHG emisija za 70% u odnosu na fosilna goriva [32]. Na temelju pregleda literature (detaljniji prikaz u poglavlju Introduction), dosad nije zabilježeno istraživanje u području anaerobne razgradnje koje povezuje mapiranje i korištenje ostatne i otpadne biomase za proizvodnju bioplina sa njegovim iskorištavanjem u budućim energetskim sustavima. Ova doktorska disertacija je ocijenila takav cjeloviti pristup i predstavila rezultate istraživanja iz perspektive jednog, odnosno više bioplinskih postrojenja. Interdisciplinarni i cjeloviti pristup prema promatranoj temi koristio je elemente kemijskog i strojarskog inženjerstva za ispunjavanje četiri glavna cilja istraživanja: • • Kvantificirati proizvodnju bioplina koristeći nove supstrate biomase kao što su lignocelulozni ostatci iz poljoprivredne proizvodnje, otpadna hrana i industrijski nusproizvodi koji nisu konkurentni proizvodnji hrane, kao što je to slučaj s kukuruznom silažom u sadašnjoj proizvodnji bioplina. • • Procijeniti kinetičke parametre anaerobne razgradnje novih supstrata kombinirajući matematičko modeliranje i eksperimentalne podatke kako bi utvrdili utjecaj kemijskog sastava supstrata na stabilnost procesa i eventualna ograničenja u procesu. • • Utvrditi ekonomski isplative načine budućeg rada bioplinskih postrojenja na naprednim energetskim tržištima nakon što bioplinska postrojenja ostanu bez financijskih potpora i zajamčene cijene električne energije. • • Procijeniti utjecaje na okoliš različitih načina korištenja bioplina integriranih u buduće energetske sustave s visokim udjelom obnovljivih izvora energije. Ostvareni ciljevi istraživanja te rezultati prezentirani su široj znanstvenoj zajednici kroz sedam objavljenih znanstvenih radova (šest radova u kvartilu Q1 te jedan rad u Q2). Znanstveni članak 1 (ARTICLE 1) [33] prikazuje detaljnu analizu lanaca vrijednosti biomase iz različitih poljoprivrednih ostatka, nusproizvoda i otpada (eng. Agricultural wastes, co-products and by-products, AWCB). Rad opisuje faze u kojima i kako nastaje otpad kroz tri specifična koraka u lancu vrijednosti: proizvodnja/uzgoj, obrada u industriji te potrošnja/konzumacija. Analiza uključuje razdoblje od 7 godina, od 2010. do 2016. u 28 zemalja članica Europske unije (EU28) te uključuje četiri različita sektora sa 26 analiziranih dobara (eng. Commodity) i prikladnim vrstama otpada koji se pojavljuju u tim sektorima. Za izračun tehničkog potencijala AWCB korišteni su javno dostupni podaci iz EUROSTAT i FAOSTAT baze, a metoda proračuna uključivala je upotrebu specifične količine AWCB po analiziranim dobrima i sektoru. Rezultati su pokazali da je u analiziranom periodu u EU28 procijenjena količina AWCB iznosila oko 18,4 milijarde tona, a prema udjelima: animalni sektor ~ 31%, sektor povrća ~ 44%, sektor žitarica ~ 22% te sektor voća ~ 2%. Analizirajući pojedine sektore i količine nastalog AWCB, daljnje istraživanje bilo je usmjereno na evaluaciju korištenja određenih AWCB iz lanca vrijednosti biomase u procesu anaerobne razgradnje s ciljem proizvodnje bioplina. Znanstveni članci 2, 3 i 4 pokazuju rezultate takvog pristupa uz primjenu istraživačkih metoda kemijskog inženjerstva. ARTICLE 2 [34] istražuje upotrebu lignoceluloznih ostataka trave kao zamjene za silažu kukuruza u anaerobnoj razgradnji. Uzorci trave prikupljeni su s područja koja nisu kompetitivna s proizvodnjom hrane: neobrađeno zemljište, obala rijeke Save u gradu Zagrebu te bankina autoceste. U istraživanju je određen svježi i suhi prinos biomase, njezin kemijski sastav, prinos te sastav proizvedenog bioplina, a primjenom Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1) modela određeni su kinetički parametri razgradnje trave. Ujedno, na kraju je dana usporedba okolišnijih učinaka zamjene kukuruzne silaže ostatnom travom u proizvodnji električne i toplinske energije. Rezultati istraživanja su pokazali da je najveći prinos ostatne trave utvrđen za obalu rijeke, sa prosječnom vrijednošću od 19 t/ha svježe mase i 2.6 t/ha suhe mase. Svi uzorci trave pokazali su zadovoljavajuće parametre za primjenu u anaerobnoj razgradnji − omjer C/N između 16.6: 1 do 22.8: 1. Ostvareni biokemijski potencijal metana u monorazgradnji (monodigestiji) ostataka trave su: 0.275 Nm3/kgTS za travu s neobrađenog zemljišta, 0.192 Nm3/kgTS za travu s obale rijeke i 0.255 Nm3/kgTS za travu s bankine autoceste. Procijenjeni kinetički parametri razgradnje trave razlikuju se od do sada objavljenih rezultata, prvenstveno zato što prijašnje analize uključuju specifične tipove travnate biomase, a ne ostatnu (miješanu) travu. Procijenjeni okolišniji utjecaji zamjene kukuruzne silaže travnatom biomasom u proizvodnji električne i toplinske energije pokazali su prednosti u smislu ostvarenog doprinosa kvaliteti ekosustava (eng. Ecosystem quality) i ljudskog zdravlja (eng. Human health), no također i nešto veće emisije GHG uzrokovane izgaranjem fosilnih goriva u poljoprivrednoj mehanizaciji i povećanim transportom trave zbog nižeg prinosa bioplina u odnosu na silažu. Čvrsta frakcija digestata dobivena u procesu monodigestije trave korištena je u znanstvenom članku 3 (ARTICLE 3) kao ulazni materijal za istraživanje procesa pirolize. Cilj istraživanja u ARTICLE 3 [35] bio je odrediti utjecaj anaerobne razgradnje na sastav lignocelulozne biomase korištenjem termogravimetrijske analize (eng. Thermogravimetric analysis, TGA). Također, procijenjeni su iznosi energije aktivacije i modificiranog predeksponencijalnog faktora za travu i njezine digestate, kao i prinos konačnog ostatka pirolize (eng. Biochar). Rezultati su pokazali da je procijenjena količina razgrađene celuloze i hemiceluloze u istraživanim uzrocima trave oko 44–50%. Nadalje, digestati trave pokazali su veći prinos biochar-a (oko 38%) u odnosu na uzorke trave (oko 24%). Kombinirani proces anaerobne razgradnje trave i pirolize njezinih digestata pokazao je manje vrijednosti procijenjenih kinetičkih parametra što upućuje na niže energetske potrebe takvog procesa u odnosu na direktnu pirolizu trave. ARTICLE 4 [36] bio je izrađen u suradnji sa industrijom biomase i bioplina. U radu je eksperimentalno istražena razgradnja otpadne hrane (eng. Food waste, FW) iz bioplinskog postrojenja zajedno s nusproizvodnima iz kafilerije (eng. Rendering plant): mesno-koštano brašno (eng. Meat and bone meal, MBM) i mulj sa otpadnih voda (eng. Wastewater sludge, WWS). Prvo je provedena termička predobrada uzoraka FW (FW1 i FW2) pri temperaturi od 35 °C i trajanju 5 dana u koju su bili dodani MBM i WWS u udjelima od 5, 10 i 15% TS. Nakon toga slijedila je anaerobna razgradnja pri 40.5 °C u trajanju od 40 dana. Uvjeti termičke predobrade i proizvodnje bioplina u laboratorijskom mjerilu replicirani su iz rada samog bioplinskog postrojenja. Također, za vrijeme procesa u laboratoriju bile su praćene sve procesne varijable kao i u radu digestora na postrojenju. Kao rezultat predobrade kemijska potrošnja kisika (eng. Chemical Oxygen Demand, COD) ispitivanih uzoraka povećala se za 7 – 26%. Dodavanjem MBM u FW1 došlo je do povećanja vrijednosti COD kao i NH4-N, dok se u slučaju dodatka WWS u FW2 postiglo smanjenje, što je i bilo očekivano, budući da je WWS materijal s niskim udjelom organske tvari. Kao rezultat testa anaerobne razgradnje dobiveni su sljedeći prinosi bioplina: za FW1 – 0.566 Nm3/kg TS, za FW1-MBM – 0.499 Nm3/kg TS, za FW2 – 0.252 Nm3/kg TS i 0.195 Nm3/kg TS za FW2-WWS. Tako širok raspon vrijednosti rezultat je heterogenosti FW (FW1 i FW 2 uzete su s vremenskim razmakom od dva mjeseca na istom postrojenju). Prema sastavu proizvedenog bioplina, kao i ostalim procesnim varijablama može se zaključiti da su FW1 i FW2 vrlo slični po sastavu, ali da je istovremeno postojao neki uzročnik inhibicije u proizvodnji bioplina za uzorak FW2, koji se nije mogao procijeniti na temelju dostupne opreme i provedenih mjerenja. Tek su mjerenja električne vodljivosti ukazala na to da uzorak FW2 sadrži nešto veću koncentraciju soli koja bi mogla biti uzročnik smanjenog prinosa bioplina. Nusproizvodi kafilerije dodani u 5%-tnom udjelu uzrocima FW rezultirali su smanjenjem proizvodnje bioplina za 12% u slučaju MBM i 23% u slučaju WWS, ali nisu utjecali na stabilnost proizvodnje. Štoviše, analizom kinetike razgradnje ustanovljeno je da MBM i WWS ubrzavaju proces razgradnje FW što se vidi iz višeg iznosa reakcijske konstante. Također, pokazano je da ispitivani uzorci najbolje koreliraju sa kinetikom prvog reda što je vidljivo iz najniže ostvarene vrijednosti RMSE (eng. Root mean square error) koja je iznosila 0.015 Nm3/kg TS. U znanstvenom članku 5 (ARTICLE 5) [37] provedena je tehno-ekonomska i scenarijska analiza rada bioplinskog postrojenja nakon isteka subvencija za proizvodnju električne energije. Vođenje takvog sustava temeljilo se na iznosu cijena električne energije i biometana (eng. Unit commitment with economic dispatch) koje su određivale koja od jedinica za prihvat bioplina: CHP, upgrading ili spremnik ima najveću ekonomsku isplativost u danom trenutku. Za opis dinamike korišten je program MATLAB/Simulink, a za ekonomsku analizu MS Excel. U prvom scenariju prikazan je utjecaj cijene proizvodnje električne energije u bioplinskom postrojenju (eng. Break-even point of electricity production, BECPel) na broj radnih sati kada ono može ostvariti svojevrstan profit na dan-unaprijed tržištu (eng. Day-ahead market) električne energije. Rezultati su pokazali da kada vrijednost BECPel postane 40 €/MWhel, bioplinsko postrojenje može ostvariti (neki) profit radeći samo 4,000 sati godišnje, kako je ostalo vrijeme cijena električne energije na tržištu niža od cijene proizvodnje. Kada BECPel postane 100 €/MWhel bioplinsko postrojenje ne može ostvariti nikakav profit radeći na dan-unaprijed tržištu. Kao jedno od rješenja koje se nameće za smanjenje vrijednosti BECPel je korištenje supstrata s negativnom cijenom (GF model) koja je detaljnije prikazana u članku 6 (ARTICLE 6). Drugi scenarij uključivao je instaliranje upgrading jedinice i proizvodnju biometana, a proizvodnja električne energije ovisila je o cijenama na tržištu uravnoteženja (eng. Balancing market). Takav pristup je pokazao da bioplinsko postrojenje i uz relativno visoku cijenu biometana od 80 €/MWh, može u određenim trenutcima ostvariti i veći profit ako radi na balancing tržištu. Treći scenarij za bioplinsko postrojenje uključivao je integraciju industrijskog otpada iz proizvodnje šećera za proizvodnju bioplina i njegovo korištenje za proizvodnju procesne topline u vrijeme šećerne kampanje. Takav pristup pokazao se relativno neisplativim za bioplinsko postrojenje kako je cijena prirodnog plina na veleprodajnom tržištu još uvijek dosta niska i bioplin joj ne može u tom smislu biti konkurentan. ARTICLE 6 [38] predstavlja rezultate integracije P2G koncepta u rad bioplinskog postrojenja koje se nalazi u GF poslovnom modelu, odnosno prima naknadu za ulazni supstrat pri proizvodnji bioplina. Cilj istraživanja bio je razviti robustan matematički model na satnoj razini za procjenu optimalnih kapaciteta vjetroelektrane i solarne elektrane, veličine spremnika za bioplin te kapacitete elektrolizera, upgrading jedinice i metanatora (eng. Methanation unit) koristeći linearno programiranje i besplatni (eng. Open source) programski jezik Julia. Kao funkcija cilja korištena je minimizacija ukupnih troškova. Matematički model testiran je na postojećoj bioplinskoj elektrani instalirane snage 1 MWel. Utvrđeno je da P2G koncept zahtijeva integraciju 18 MWel vjetra i 9 MWel solara na lokaciji, uz dodatan uvoz električne energije iz mreže u iznosu 16 GWhel kako bi se na godišnjoj razini proizvelo 36 GWh obnovljivog metana. Analiza je pokazala da GF (u promatranom slučaju za otpadnu hranu) značajno doprinosi ekonomskoj održivosti obnovljivog metana: promjena GF za 100 €/toni rezultira smanjenjem troškova njegove proizvodnje za 20-60%. Ustanovljeno je da za vrijednost GF=-120 €/tona obnovljivi metan iz prikazanog koncepta postaje cjenovno konkurentan prirodnom plinu. Robusna priroda modela pokazala je da nesigurnosti povezane s proizvodnjom električne energije iz vjetra i solara na lokaciji mogu povećati troškove proizvodnje obnovljivog metana za 10-30%. ARTICLE 7 [39] integralno obuhvaća rezultate svih dotad objavljenih radova u sklopu izrade doktorske disertacije i smješta ih u kontekst testiranja hipoteze. U njemu je provedena geoprostorna analiza (eng. Geospatial analysis) bioplinskog sektora korištenjem javno dostupnog programa QGIS te procjena okolišnijih utjecaja pomoću programa SimaPro. Cilj rada bio je mapirati energetski potencijal otpadne trave, industrijskih nusproizvoda i otpada, te komunalnog biootpada (otpadne hrane) za zamjenu kukuruzne silaže u postojećoj proizvodnji bioplina te planiranje proširenja bioplinskog sektora. Kao studija slučaja (eng. Case study) korištena je Sjeverna Hrvatska (eng. Northern Croatia), područje s intenzivnim bioplinskim sektorom te snažnom industrijom, poljoprivredom i velikom gustoćom stanovništva. Rezultati su pokazali da bi navedene sirovine mogle zamijeniti 212 GWh bioplina iz kukuruzne silaže u postojećim bioplinskim postrojenjima te stvoriti dodatnih 191 GWh biometana u novim postrojenjima. Također, geoprostorna analiza je pokazala da su neka bioplinska postrojenja izgrađena u neposrednoj blizini plinske transportne mreže (<2km udaljenosti) i da imaju potencijal za utiskivanje biometana u plinsku mrežu. Cjelokupna analiza utjecaja na okoliš postojećih bioplinskih postrojenja pokazala je da integralni pristup proizvodnji i korištenju bioplina stvara sinergijske učinke u smislu smanjenja opterećenja na okoliš, što izravno dokazuje hipotezu studije. Kompleksnost P2G koncepta i njegovi intenzivni energetski zahtjevi čine ga trenutno nepovoljnijim u usporedbi sa klasičnim upgradingom bioplina, no isti dolazi do izražaja kada se u razmatranje uzmu budući energetski sustavi s visokim udjelom OIE. Znanstveni doprinosi ovog rada ostvareni su kroz provedena istraživanja te prikazani kroz objavljene rezultate u radovima kako slijedi: • Eksperimentalnim istraživanjem anaerobne razgradnje novih supstrata biomase odredit će se potencijalne prepreke u proizvodnji bioplina, poput pojave inhibicije ili utjecaja tipa biomase na stabilnost procesa: ARTICLE 2: Ustanovljeno je da lignocelulozna biomasa u obliku ostatne trave ne sadrži fizikalno-kemijske karakteristike koje bi ograničile njezinu upotrebu za proizvodnju bioplina. Štoviše, pokazalo se da ista uzrokuje poboljšanu kontrolu pH što doprinosi stabilnosti proizvodnje bioplina. Nedostatak njezinog korištenja je taj što je za ostvarivanje većih prinosa potrebno primijeniti neki oblik predobrade. ARTICLE 4: Heterogenost otpadne hrane utječe na vođenje procesa za što je potrebno ustanoviti robusnu kontrolu procesnih varijabli. Pokazalo se da i na razini bioplinskog postrojenja postoje neke varijable koje se ne prate na dnevnoj razini (prisutnost soli i metala), a koje mogu uzurpirati proizvodnju bioplina. Ustanovljeno je da kafilerijski nusprodukti i otpad u manjim količinama mogu doprinijeti povećanju brzine razgradnje otpadne hrane. • Predložiti alternativne mjere za trenutni sektor bioplina uzimajući u obzir tržišne cijene i analizu utjecaja na okoliš koristeći pristup procjene životnog ciklusa. ARTICLE 5: Alternativne mjere za bioplinski sektor u vidu proizvodnje biometana i rada bioplinskih postrojenja na day-ahead i balancing tržištu električnom energijom pokazala se kao najvjerojatnija opcija nakon napuštanja poticajnih sustava za proizvodnju električne energije. U takvim okvirima tranzicija s kukuruzne silaže na supstrate alternativne supstrate postati će prihvatljiva operativna odluka uz dodatne investicije u novu opremu. ARTICLE 6: Integracija varijabilnih OIE u rad bioplinskih postrojenja pokazala je da će se u budućnosti paradigma bioplinskih postrojenja kao takvih promijeniti – više neće biti samo pasivni proizvođači struje, nego će postati aktivni sudionici na tržištima energijom. ARTICLE 2: Pokazano je da otpadana trava više doprinosi kvaliteti ekosustava i ljudskom zdravlju nego kukuruzna silaža, iako uzrokuje veće emisije stakleničkih plinova, prvenstveno zbog intenzivnijih potreba za transportom na fosilna goriva. ARTICLE 7: LCA predloženih mjera za sektor bioplina koje uključuju zamjenu kukuruzne silaže alternativnih oblicima biomase te iskorištavanje bioplina u sustavima s visokim udjelom OIE pokazala je sinergistički efekt u smislu smanjenja cjelokupnog tereta na okoliš. Analiza je također pokazala da je integracija P2G u promatranim okvirima još uvijek neatraktivna zbog kompleksnosti sustava i energetski intenzivnih procesa. • Napredni model geografskog informacijskog sustava mapiranja novih izvora biomase koji će u kombinaciji s različitim načinima korištenja bioplina integriranim u sustave visokih obnovljivih izvora energije u naprednim energetskim tržištima rezultirati robusnim matematičkim modelima primjenjivim na različite slučajeve bioplinskih postrojenja. ARTICLE 6: Razvijeni robusni model integracije P2G koncepta u rad bioplinskog postrojenja pokazao je sinergiju između GF poslovnog modela te integracije obnovljive električne energije i topline koji su objedinjeni u postavljenoj matematičkoj formulaciji nivelirane cijene obnovljivog metana (eng. Levelized cost of renewable methane, LCORM). ARTICLE 7: Razvijeni GIS model obuhvaća analizu postojećih bioplinskih postrojenja i pozicioniranje budućih biometanskih postrojenja na temelju geoprostorne analize dostupnih alternativnih supstrata i položaja plinske mreže. Hipoteza ovog istraživanja je da je primjenom cjelovitog pristupa u radu bioplinskih postrojenja, i na strani proizvodnje i iskorištavanja bioplina, moguće povećati ekonomsku profitabilnost i doprinos zaštiti okoliša u usporedbi s trenutnim subvencioniranim radom. Kroz provedena istraživanja hipoteza je testirana i potvrđena uzevši u obzir sljedeće: • Ekonomska profitabilnost bioplinskih postrojenja nakon napuštanja subvencija i ograničenja u korištenju kukuruzne silaže bit će teže ostvariva. Uključivat će implementaciju GF poslovnog modela za supstrate za što će biti potrebne nove investicije po pitanju linije za predobradu, povećanje kapaciteta za spremanje bioplina na lokaciji kako bi postrojenje bilo fleksibilnije na tržištu električne energije te dodatne investicije u sustav za proizvodnju obnovljivog metana, prvenstveno biometana. • Cjeloviti pristup pokazao je da će doprinos budućeg bioplinskog sektora smanjenju okolišnih tereta ići kroz dvostruki doprinos: iz gospodarenja otpadom za proizvodnju bioplina koji će uključivati prvenstveno komunalni i industrijski biootpad u urbanim bioplinskim postrojenjima, a poljoprivredne ostatke u ruralnim bioplinskim postrojenjima, te iskorištavanja bioplina za proizvodnju obnovljive energije u vidu biometana.
