Margaret Cavendish was a powerful, eccentric woman of the seventeenth century. Cavendish grew up wealthy, educated, and did not conform to the world around her. This ultimately led her to the creation of her book, The Blazing World, which tells the story of an empress who is transported to a new world, the blazing world. Here she becomes an empress with philosophical servants of bird-men, spider-men, and more, who study math and science. Cavendish, who had much interest in the topics of science and philosophy, used her interest in these topics to create a story full of imagination for her readers to enjoy. ; Winner of the 2022 Friends of the Kreitzberg Library Award for Outstanding Research in the Junior Arts/Humanities category. ; 1 Taylor Richard Professor Carl Martin EN 370 27 April 2021 Margaret Cavendish's Powerful Leadership in The Blazing World Margaret Cavendish was a powerful, eccentric woman of the seventeenth century. Cavendish grew up wealthy, educated, and did not conform to the world around her. This ultimately led her to the creation of her book, The Blazing World, which tells the story of an empress who is transported to a new world, the blazing world. Here she becomes an empress with philosophical servants of bird-men, spider-men, and more, who study math and science. Cavendish, who had much interest in the topics of science and philosophy, used her interest in these topics to create a story full of imagination for her readers to enjoy. During the seventeenth century, the expectation of women was to be a caretaker for their home and for their children. Many women during this time did not pursue becoming a writer, and they did not become educated in science or philosophy. As a writer, she was able to use this platform to share her knowledge with the rest of the world even though that was not the common role of a woman during this period of time. Cavendish has imagined a world that allows her audience to be introduced to women of impenetrable intelligence, and leadership. Although women's voices were not often heard in seventeenth-century politics, it does not mean that they believed in the jurisdiction of men of power. Margaret Cavendish was an intelligent woman who knew when and how to speak her mind and although it was only a resistance to warfare, believed that there was peace within women of power. 2 Margaret Cavendish was not only a woman of power and leadership in The Blazing World but was a woman of riches in her tangible world as well. Her husband William Cavendish was the first Duke of Newcastle making him a man of political power. The seventeenth century was an era of male dominated political power and rivalry that "produced the court as a fraught environment" (Edwards and Graham 10). The standpoint of many authoritative men at this time, including William Cavendish himself, was "inducing fear to produce love" and forcing a woman's will to be "subject to her husband" (Edwards and Graham 131). This mindset his how William and other men of power viewed their control over their subjects. Margaret Cavendish a voice for women's political standpoints in this era, entertained some opposing views to her husbands. Margaret believes "one's wit must be carefully managed" in order to have control (Edwards and Graham 135). The seventeenth century was an era that was ran by men who believed that they could control the world with words and by inducing fear. Margaret Cavendish represented women who knew when to bite their tongue to gain control over difficult situations. The big takeaway from seventeenth century politics is that although women's voices were not often heard, it does not mean they agreed with the way of male jurisdiction. Margaret Cavendish created The Blazing World so that she may express her own ideologies of philosophy and political power. Margaret even included herself, the Duchess, in her fantasy world as a companion of the Empress along with many others. Looking through the eyes of a feminist critic, women are said to have a "more relational sense of selfhood in which their identity is felt to be intertwined with that of others" (Grice). Cavendish's Empress finds strength through intelligent and meaningful conversations with her fellow companions 3 throughout her story. The Empress benefits from talking through her ideologies and learning from the beast-men and the Duchess. Her power is not defined by control and she is instead empowered by her kindness and wise decisions making. Women possess an attentive, caretaking personality that allowed Cavendish to create a woman of power that valued the opinions of others in order to live in a political society without dangerous warfare and split- second decisions. Margaret Cavendish "implies a pacifist rejection of the violence and upheaval that devastate her family and her husband's estate" (Anderson 225). Having experienced what men of power allow in her own personal life, it allowed Cavendish to imagine a world where women of power abstain from violence in order to lead a more peaceful world. Cavendish begins the Empress's time by introducing all of the animal-men with discussions about their studies. The Empress asks each group a series of questions on their studies, and they each reply with the best answer to their knowledge. She asked questions about the sky, the weather, the sea, the Earth, microscopic beings, and more. Each time an answer is given by one of the animal-men, Margaret Cavendish's voice would shine through and provide an answer to the questions being asked. In this part of her book, she was able to express her thoughts, ideas, and showcase her knowledge to her readers. Showcasing her knowledge in this way may have seemed unconventional during this time to those around her, however Cavendish found a way to express herself as a woman with knowledge and interest in science in the seventeenth century. She boldly tries to "avoid one-sidedness, searching for more comprehensive answers" (Holmesland 1). Cavendish possessed knowledge and theories that she was able to share through her writing each time the empress asked a question. When the spider-men arrive, who are the Empress' mathematicians, she explains that she finds their 4 work confusing and does not have any questions to ask the spider-men. The Empress then claims, "there is so much to learn in your art that I can neither spend time from other affairs to busy myself in your profession" (Cavendish 97). She goes on to explain that she does not think that she could ever understand their imaginary points because math is about non-beings. Cavendish liked to discuss the more tangible things in the world as opposed to numbers and mathematical equations. Women were generally not taught mathematics during this time; therefore, it could have been impossible for Cavendish to discuss that subject in her book by lacking the knowledge to do so. Having grown up wealthy Margaret Cavendish was blessed with obtaining an education, but as a woman in her time. Even though this is true, it did not withhold her from gaining and education and using her voice of reason. When it came to some of her ideas, Margaret Cavendish was ahead of her time and a very intelligent, imaginative woman. In her story, Cavendish's Empress and her people were in need of ships to go to battle and began to grow worried that they did not possess a ship narrow enough to fit through a passageway. This worry of the blocked passageway is when Cavendish's Empress mentions the creation of "ships that could swim under water" (145). Cavendish published her book in 1666, and during this time submarines were merely a prototype and were not actually used in battle until the late 1700's. Although Cavendish was viewed as having a wild imagination, she imagined an invention to be used in difficult situations of war an entire century before it became a reality. Inventors and scientists use their imaginations every day to come up with new ideas for the world. But, because Margaret Cavendish was a seventeenth century woman, ideas such as hers seemed very far-fetched to the readers of her story. Cavendish's character allowed for thought and peace to be woven into her adventure, further 5 making her a strong leader. The Empress was able to problem solve without using words of violence and ultimately spoke volumes to the ability of a female leader. Margaret created a heroic character in her story, and the "heroine is Margaret in disguise" (Grant 154). In her time, most women were expected to stay home and become a caretaker of their husbands, but Cavendish decided that she wanted more and became a powerful writer. Women only being looked at in this light, lead people to believe her imagination was as eccentric as Margaret Cavendish herself. However, this was not the truth about Cavendish who was a woman capable of paving the way for progressive women to follow. Margaret Cavendish imagined a world that she found new and exciting. In her story of the Empress and her adventures she introduces the Duchess, a platonic friend that she comes to know and love. The two become very close and share many intelligent conversations throughout this part of her story. In Cavendish's real world, women found friendship in their female neighbors to avoid loneliness while their husbands were away. Women found comfort in their friendships, but they still did not have a voice. Margaret Cavendish created the two female characters to represent a strong female friendship, as well as a representation of strong female leadership. Cavendish was able to imagine new roles for women in politics to show what women could be capable of in a position of power and leadership. At a point in her life Cavendish went as far to say that there was "general war amongst the men yet there has been none amongst the women" (Anderson 225). Cavendish felt as though women were capable of being more peaceful leaders. However, Cavendish only knew of warfare to solve disputes between other countries in her own personal life. In The Blazing World she states "neither would she return into the Blazing-world until she had forced all the rest of that World to submit 6 to that same Nation" (151). Although she was a woman of power, it did not necessarily mean she was willing to always solve disputes peacefully, as she perhaps did not know that there was another way. When writing her book, Cavendish also wanted to engage a female audience as well as a male audience. By creating a science fiction story, Cavendish was able to imagine a world with romance that engaged her female readers as well as share her philosophical ideas. Female readers can learn about Cavendish's scientific ideas and creations while also being exposed to a world with two powerful, front-running female characters. Margaret Cavendish was able to imagine a world capable of inspiring other women to have their own ideas and to use their own imagination to learn about the world and the science behind its existence. The dynamic between the Empress and the Duchess, although imaginary, created a world where the women have choice and control over their own lives unlike the reality of the world during the seventeenth century. Margaret Cavendish appeared as an eccentric woman who steered away from the proper role of a woman. Realistically, Cavendish was a woman who was ahead of her time and had the ability to use her imagination to tell a science fictional story that showcased her philosophical ideas and opinions of the world she lived in. Cavendish imagined animal-men as her servants that brought her philosophical thoughts from her mind to paper. As well as sharing her ideas for her readers, she imagined ships, alternate realities, and a world that could be ruled and saved by women. Margaret Cavendish was not afraid to force her readers out of the comfort zone of their own societal norms. Cavendish was a representation of what women were capable of despite the societal norms that were accepted at the time of her book's 7 publication. The seventeenth century did not provide a platform for women to openly share their thoughts on philosophical matters if they were lucky enough to be educated. By creating an imagined world, Cavendish was able to create characters that voiced her ideas, and a society that she longed for herself and for fellow women. 8 Works Cited Anderson, Penelope. Friendship's Shadows: Women's Friendship and the Politics of Betrayal in England, 1640-1705. Edinburgh University Press, 2012. EBSCOhost, search.ebscohos.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=e000xna&AN=534504&scope=site Cavendish, Margaret. The Description of a New World, Called the Blazing World. Edited by Sarah H. Mendelson, Ontario, Broadview Press, 2016. Edwards, Peter, and Elspeth, Graham. Authority, Authorship and Aristocratic Identity in Seventeenth Century England: William Cavendish, 1st Duke of Newcastle, and His Political, Social, and Cultural Connections. Brill, 2016. EBSCOhost, search.ebscohost.com/loginaspx?direct=true&db=e000xna&AN=1407672&scope=site. Accessed 6 April 2021. Fletcher, Angus. "The Irregular Aesthetic of 'The Blazing World.'" Studies in English Literature, 1500-1900, vol. 47, no. 1, 2007, pp. 123-141. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/4127496. Accessed 1 April 2021. Grice, Helena. "Gender and Life Writing." Encyclopedia of Life Writing: Autobiographical and Biographical Forms, edited by Margaretta Jolly, Routledge, 1st edition, 2001. Credo Reference,https://search.credoreference.com/content/entry/routlifewrite/gender_and_life_writing/0?instituionld-2540. Accessed 1 April 2021 Holmesland, Oddvar. Utopian Negotiation: Aphra Behn and Margaret Cavendish, Syracuse University Press, 2013. ProQuest Ebook Central, https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/norwich/detail.action?docID=3410167
We study a model of strategic competition among farmers for land use in an agricultural economy. Each agent can take possession of a part of the collective forest land and convert it to farming. Unconverted forest land helps preserving biodiversity, which contributes to reducing the volatility of agricultural production. Agents' utility is given in terms of a Kreps Porteus stochastic dierential utility capable of disentangling risk aversion and aversion to uctuations. We characterize the land used by each farmer and her welfare at the Nash equilibrium, we evaluate the over-exploitation of the land and the agents' welfare loss compared to the socially optimal solution and we study the drivers of the ineciencies of the decentralized equilibrium. After characterizing the value of biodiversity in the model, we use an appropriate decomposition to study the policy implications of the model by identifying in which cases the allocation of property rights is preferable to the introduction of a land conversion tax.
Improving the quality of education is one of today's main challenges for governments in the developing world. Based on a unique matched student-to-teacher panel data set on test scores this paper presents two empirical results for Indonesia. First, through detailed inspection of teacher-level responses to test questions, the paper concludes that subject matter knowledge of primary school teachers in Indonesia is low on average and that a 1.0, but also a 2.0 standard deviation increase in teachers' subject matter knowledge seem to be achievable medium-term goals for education policy making in Indonesia. Second, the paper presents the results of three types of value-added regressions, a (standard) level specification, a school fixed-effects specification, and a flexible student-teacher fixed-effects specification. The student-teacher fixed-effects approach estimates the parameters of a value-added model using test score variation within each student-teacher pair across three different subjects, mathematics, science and Indonesian language. The results suggest that a 1.0 (and 2.0) standard deviation increase in teachers' subject matter knowledge across-the-board can yield increases in student achievement by 0.25 (and 0.50) student-level standard deviations by the time students complete the six-year primary school cycle.
My submission (How effectively has the law since 1997 ensured a 'work life balance' for workers with family responsibilities? Answer this question with reference to the relevant statutory materials, case law, legal commentary and social science literature) is essentially about how the law in the UK can be used to help those within the workforce achieve an effective work-life balance, meaning they have ample time and energy to focus on their professional responsibilities as well as their family life and leisure time. This article outlines that despite an apparent long-standing commitment by successive governments to tackle this issue, the legal framework created has largely failed to ensure people have an effective work-life balance. This is especially true for migrant workers who are often exploited within the UK workforce, as well as women, who arguably are not effectively protected by this area of law after pregnancy/early maternity and increasingly are having to find ways to cope with the dual burden of paid work and childcare/homemaking responsibilities. This submission also considers how this area of law has been impacted by the coronavirus pandemic as well as Brexit, both of which have created new challenges and exacerbated existing ones. - Consider these two quotations from UK government White Papers/Consultation documents: "Helping employees to combine work and family life satisfactorily is good not only for parents and children but also for businesses". (Fairness at Work, White Paper, May 1998, para 5). "The proposals in this document will bring benefits for employers as well as employees, by increasing participation in the labour market while also helping people to balance work with their family and personal responsibilities". (Consultation on modern workplaces, May 2011). How effectively has the law since 1997 ensured a 'work life balance' for workers with family responsibilities? Answer this question with reference to the relevant statutory materials, case law, legal commentary and social science literature. Much like the other areas of labour and employment law, the legal framework used to help those in the labour market achieve an effective 'work life balance' has had to adapt to new challenges in society, which has in turn affected the realities of the UK workforce.[1] Primarily, this issue has become increasingly more prevalent since the latter half of the 20th century because of societal and legal changes that have meant the traditional model of a male breadwinner and female homemaker has become increasingly unrepresentative of the UK labour market.[2] The quotations contained in this essay question, although from different UK governments, suggest a firm and longstanding commitment to ensuring employees with familial responsibilities can use the law to achieve an effective work life balance. This essay will discuss and evaluate the various reasons for this commitment. However, it is arguable that since 1997 successive governments have failed to effectively tackle the UK's long working hours 'culture', as well as the ineffective legal framework that seeks to help achieve an effective work life balance.[3] This essay recognises the fact that there have been some positive advancements since 1997 in the statutory entitlements employees have (or can obtain) that afford them greater flexibility at work in order that they can also fulfil their familial responsibilities.[4] Examples discussed later include the introduction of shared parental leave and the laws protecting and promoting the rights of women during pregnancy and early maternity.[5] However, this essay will seek to show how these positive policies have had a limited overall effect in terms of achieving an effective work life balance, especially for women and immigrants participating in the UK workforce.[6] This will involve a statistics-based criticism, employ case law and a feminist theoretical perspective, as well as give general ideas and propositions as to how the law needs to go further to achieve its aims. I will argue that the law is currently tempered too much by fears of damaging businesses or the UK economy as a whole. Furthermore, the impact of coronavirus will be considered, specifically how new problems have emerged and existing issues have been exacerbated.[7] The Development of the Law Concerning Work Life Balance Since 1997: Changes and Problems Although this essay is primarily concerned with the impact of the legal framework developed since 1997, there are some important contextual developments that occurred before this and are worth mentioning. Throughout the 20th century, the UK labour market moved from a laissez faire model to one characterised by increased regulation. This was controversial and different governments varied in their commitment to pursuing greater order in the labour market using the law.[8] This trajectory was reversed in the 1970s and afterwards, wherein the Thatcher government (influenced significantly by the ideas of neoliberalism)[9] pursued policies of de-regulation and privatisation. Moreover, from 1975 until 2020 the legislature of the UK was required to effectively implement EEC/EC/EU law and directives, which has had a profound impact on the labour market.[10] Furthermore, as previously mentioned the advent of feminism meant that more women than ever were entering (or re-entering) the workforce after having children, whereas before they would have been homemakers.[11] In terms of the narrative of legal development this essay's starting point is the introduction of the 'New Labour' government in 1997, led by Tony Blair. This government helped to produce the Fairness at Work white paper, Chapter 5 of which contained a number of 'family friendly policies' aimed at ensuring a more effective work life balance for those with families.[12] The New Labour government had a few reasons behind the implementation of such policies, but primarily they were utilised to increase competitiveness in the market to ensure its prosperity[13] and to implement the 1996 EC Parental Leave Directive.[14] This directive had ambitious aims that even with the margin of appreciation would have been hard for the UK, with its long working hours culture, to achieve. These aims included promoting equal opportunities; flexible working; greater women's involvement in the labour market and; men taking an equal share of the responsibilities associated with family life.[15] Subsequently, Conservative led governments that published the Consultation on Modern Workplaces[16] and Good Work: A Response to the Taylor Review of Modern Working Practices[17] were also driven by rationales based on economic prosperity. It was thought that this would increase productivity, worker loyalty, the quality of work and reduce the costs associated with high employee turnover.[18] The culmination of this narrative, i.e., the current legal framework governing the work life balance people in the UK labour market can achieve, covers a wide range of situations and involves many protected rights. Yet, despite this scope it also has many failings, primarily because it is fragmented and lacks a unified approach. The focus of this area of law on using skilled workers to diversify and increase competitiveness within the market means that often those working in more flexible or atypical employment are denied some of these rights and protections.[19] For example, most women require some level of maternity pay to be able to afford to take maternity leave, yet to qualify for it there must have been 26 weeks of continuous employment before the expected week of childbirth as well as a paycheck of at least £116 a week. So, for women without provisions for maternity pay within contracts and who earn less than this because they are employed on a temporary basis, work in the gig economy or other types of atypical work, statutory maternity pay is unobtainable.[20] Evidence from the Office for National Statistics found that 55% of the people working on zero-hour contracts (one example of atypical work) were women in its report Contracts That Do Not Guarantee a Minimum Number of Hours, which is even more significant because women make up only 46.8% of those employed not on zero hours contracts.[21] By contrast, 87% of men are in full time work.[22] This means that women who are entitled to statutory maternity leave under the Maternity and Parental Leave Regulations 1999 are not always able to take it because the law fails to provide them with an adequate way of surviving financially: the only other option is a very low level of maternity allowance from the government.[23] Additionally, there are many scholars who argue that flexible working for women with family responsibilities is the way forward, yet the right to request this also requires continuous employment of at least twenty-six weeks.[24] Arguably, this is a cyclical issue: more women are in atypical work because it allows the flexibility to fulfil private domestic obligations, but these women lack statutory and contractual protections and so cannot achieve the same type of flexibility in full time, permanent employment which in turn excludes them from fully participating in the labour market.[25] Additionally, the non-profit organisation Trust for London found that migrants were more likely to work "during night shifts and in non-permanent jobs".[26] This means that similarly migrant women who are in types of atypical work, such as zero-hour contract hospitality jobs (which is very common for this demographic), cannot claim maternity pay and cannot have help at home from their husbands who cannot get paternity leave under the Paternity and Adoption Leave Regulations 2002 because this also requires 26 weeks of continuous employment.[27] Of course, because of the numerous, inflexible requirements needed for shared parental leave to be available under the current law this is also not a viable option for immigrant families or women in low skilled or low paid areas of work that are atypical in nature.[28] All of this demonstrates that the law has little interest in human rights or equality as a justification for an effective work life balance, and that this economic focus has resulted in a legal framework that ignores the problems and experiences of these key demographics that make up a significant amount of the population who have both work and family commitments. It will only go so far as not to damage the competitiveness or prosperity of the economy.[29] Furthermore, if those working part time in the labour market or in atypical work wanted to make an application based on the Part Time Workers (Prevention of Less Favourable Treatment) Regulation 2000 because they were being excluded from such rights, they would have to use their own resources and time to make a complaint to the Employment Tribunal. Arguably, this is not a particularly effective form of remediation as it only offers compensation for losses incurred because of this "less favourable treatment" and hear that the employer has been recommended to stop this action.[30] The Impact of EU Law The law concerning work life balance has been significantly impacted by EU law both before and after 1997. Unlike the mainly economic rationales behind the UK law, the EU acknowledges these benefits whilst also having a focus on social equality, equality of opportunity between men and women, the socioeconomic rights of individuals as well as dismantling harmful societally imposed gender roles.[31] This was evidenced clearly by the ambitious Parental Leave Directive.[32] It has influenced both the legal framework of rights concerning workers and employees with family responsibilities as well as UK equality law, as the UK legislature and judiciary is obliged to implement the aims of these directives using domestic law (albeit with a margin of appreciation).[33] However, academic Nicole Busby in her article 'The Evolution of Gender Equality and Related Employment Policies: The Case of Work-Family Reconciliation'[34] has argued that the focuses of the EU are conflicting, "parallel and incoherent".[35] The dual focus of both on improving the market as a whole by using policies to allow more people to be involved and using the law to equalise equality between men and women has resulted in "a patchwork of provisions rather than an overarching framework".[36] This argument is an interesting one that definitely has its merits, especially the characterisation of familial responsibilities as a form of unpaid work because of its significant contribution to society - it re-frames the way these two goals are thought of.[37] Busby argues that this approach means the EU "subordinates gender equality to economic objectives".[38] Additionally, Busby makes agreeable statements about how EU law and the Court of Justice has failed to promote the rights and roles of men in the domestic setting.[39] However, she arguably fails to account for the numerous and ambitious advancements in work life balance law that has been facilitated in the UK by the EU. The examples of directives that have, even in a de jure way, protected women in the UK workforce from discrimination on the basis of pregnancy or maternity and helped to facilitate a more gender-neutral approach to governing parenting responsibilities. For example, section 18(2) of the Equality Act 2010 which protects women from discrimination or dismissal on the basis of pregnancy or related sickness was influenced by the need to implement the Pregnant Workers Directive[40] and the Equal Treatment Directive,[41] which formalised the previous case ruling of Webb v EMO Air Cargo (UK) Ltd by removing the need for a male comparison in cases of discrimination.[42] The Pregnant Workers Directive also influenced the introduction of statutory maternity pay and the Equal Treatment Directive ensures a woman has a right to return to work after maternity leave.[43] However, it is important not to overstate the influence or importance of EU law, especially because of the fact that the UK is due to leave the EU imminently. There is significant statistical evidence that EU law and UK equality law fails to tackle more "surreptitious" forms of discrimination against pregnant women.[44] The Equality and Human Rights Commission found in its report Pregnancy and Maternity Discrimination and Disadvantage: Summary of Key Findings found that ¾ of mothers surveyed said they had a negative/discriminatory experience during pregnancy and maternity leave, 20% said they experiences harassment or negative comments because of pregnancy or flexible working and 11% felt forced to leave their jobs.[45] On the side of employers, 84% said it was in their interests to support pregnant women yet 70% also felt women should declare upfront if they were pregnant and 27% felt the cost of maternity leave put an unreasonable burden on them.[46] Despite this widespread discrimination, only around 1% of claims are brought.[47] This demonstrates how the de facto reality is that both EU and UK law fails to protect women from discrimination due to pregnancy, and remedies for this are few and far between because (like many other aspects of this area of law) there is poor take up of such rights. Furthermore, in 2019 the EU introduced the Directive on Work-Life Balance For Parents and Carers which aims to do everything the current UK legal framework has failed to do: increase the participation of women in the workforce, increase the de facto use of family related leave and flexible working arrangements.[48] This would be incredibly influential in UK law, especially in terms of strengthening paternity rights and moving towards normalising men taking a more active role in familial responsibilities.[49] However, because of Brexit and the fact the transition period will not be extended again, the UK would have to choose to implement this directive,[50] and perhaps they will in the form of the Good Work Plan, which would have various implications in and of itself.[51] The Good Work Plan – Gender Norms and the Legal Framework Beyond Pregnancy and Birth In 2018, the UK government produced the Good Work Plan: Proposals to Support Families,[52] which was responding to the earlier Taylor Review and reiterated the same economic benefits that would be had from helping individuals to achieve a better work life balance.[53] There are definitely benefits to the approach that would be adopted. Recommendation 41 recognises that pregnancy and maternity discrimination remain a problem, and that an inherent cultural shift is needed to change this that the law should support and facilitate.[54] Overall, the idea of a "balance between flexibility and worker protections" sounds positive.[55] Arguably one of the most positive aspects of the Good Work Plan is that it recognises how the rights of atypical workers are often subverted under the current law and the fact that this needs to change. However, the reality is that the EU directive would have gone further because the UK still lacks a fundamental concern for a regulatory framework that is genuinely concerned with the rights of workers and not just the economic benefits of having more women in the workforce. Additionally, it does not directly relate the current law concerning pregnancy/maternity discrimination and an effective work life balance with the subversion of atypical worker's rights, which would be a significant step forward in and of itself.[56] Furthermore, the Trades Union Congress (TUC) has essentially argued that the Good Work Plan does not go far enough.[57] They point out that the reality is that the current legal framework reinforces harmful gender norms that continues to reproduce patriarchal ideas regarding gender roles. They quote an article by Helen Norman ('Does Paternal Involvement in Childcare Influence Mother's Employment Trajectories During the Early Stages of Parenthood in the UK?' which essentially found that "mothers with preschool children are twice as likely to return to employment at nine months and at three years' post-childbirth if the father is involved by sharing or doing the most childcare at these times".[58] This area of law simply does not want to concern itself with supporting mothers in the workforce, which is yet again one of its primary downfalls. This is significant in terms of establishing one of the least talked about but most problematic aspects of the current law concerning work life balance: it has a significant number of statutory rights and protections for during pregnancy and immediately after birth but fails to provide long term support for mothers.[59] This is because the law refuses to tackle the bigger issue of gendered norms in society that would allow women to be more active in the labour market and normalise men taking a more active role in the domestic sphere of life.[60] Shared Parental Leave and the Feminist Perspective Another important and influential source of criticism of the system governing work-life balance is the feminist perspective on how women are disproportionately affected and pushed out of the labour market as a result.[61] Primarily, feminist scholars of sociology argue that women, far from being freed from the oppressive nature of gender norms in society, now have a dual burden.[62] This is because the law concerning work life balance has failed to tackle these gender norms, which means the unpaid labour burdens of the domestic sphere and childcare is still disproportionately placed on women rather than men; women have the burden of paid work as well as those roles "associated with femininity and motherhood".[63] This is because, as this essay has previously mentioned, the law concerning work life balance in both the UK and Europe has failed in substantially tackling these gender norms despite the fact societal changes have significantly decreased the relevance of the male breadwinner and female homemaker model.[64] Moreover, there are feminist scholars who argue that women have poorer long term career prospects because they need to be in part time/atypical employment to manage their familial responsibilities because the law has not created an effective system where they would be able to do this in full time employment.[65] This is another way in which the law concerning work life balance fails to support mothers in a long-term sense beyond pregnancy and its immediate aftermath. However, there has been some argument amongst legal scholars and officials about whether such arguments have been abated by the introduction of Shared Parental Leave in 2014. This new regulation, in theory, "makes it possible for partners to share the entitlement to maternity leave and maternity pay between them".[66] As Grace James put it in her article 'Family-friendly Employment Laws (Re)assessed: The Potential of Care Ethics' this has been added to the existing framework of rights for working parents and reiterates a commitment by the law to dismantling the gender norms that are keeping women from effectively and substantially engaging with the labour market.[67] Despite this, Grace James is right when she points out that this "package of rights" (including shared parental leave) is fundamentally flawed.[68] Firstly, this shared parental leave package fails to deal with the continued discrimination against pregnant women and mothers that statistically feel pushed out of the labour market.[69] Furthermore, the refusal by the law on work life balance to place too much of a financial burden on the employers means that only a small proportion of the workforce are even eligible for this.[70] Both parents must be employees and pass the relevant statutory and common law requirements to be categorised as such, i.e., they must have a contract of employment under s.230 of the Employment Rights Act 1996, be able to satisfy the control test;[71] have their activity be an integral part of the business;[72] as well as the tests of economic reality;[73] mutuality of obligations and;[74] continuity of employment. Beyond these already numerous requirements, both parents also must have earnt at least £390 in thirteen out of the sixty-six weeks of employment.[75] Additionally, as couples are likely to work for different employers there is a great deal of organisational effort that goes into organising shared parental leave.[76] Again, this means that those working in atypical work are automatically not covered by such provisions. Furthermore, the slow uptake on this due to the law's failure to tackle traditional gender roles in society effectively enough has severely limited the de facto effectiveness of shared parental leave in dealing with the problems facing people with work and family responsibilities in the UK.[77] Moreover, this article offers an interesting contextual background about how remedies for people whose employers deny them such rights are limited because of cuts in "legal aid funding and the closure of many legal advice centres".[78] Arguably, this helps us understand how developments outside of the immediate legal framework also affect work life balance in a significant way which need to be remedied in the future if it is to be effective. Jamie Atkinson offers an interesting perspective on shared parental leave in their article 'Shared Parental Leave in the UK: Can it Advance Gender Equality by Changing Fathers into Co-Parents?' by comparing it with similar policies in Nordic countries that have much higher levels of gender equality.[79] To summarise, she argues that generous levels of compensation to parents, flexibility about how the leave is taken, wide reaching eligibility requirements and "other incentives to get the father to take leave" are the most important elements in ensuring the success of such policies (which she measures by the amount of people who make use of it).[80] Although she rightly identifies that these Nordic countries are also not perfect, it provides an interesting perspective for how shared parental leave in the UK can improve on itself to further gender equality.[81] Impact of Coronavirus: Problems Old and New The feminist narrative of women being disproportionately affected by poor regulation of work-life balance in the UK has only been strengthened by the impact of coronavirus.[82] Within the private sphere of unpaid work, women are already doing the majority of this work and school closures combined with millions of people working from home has meant this burden has only grown.[83] In her article 'The COVID-19 Pandemic has Increased the Care Burden on Women and Families', Kate Power cites a statistic that 41% of women currently inactive in the UK labour market are so because of their unpaid care responsibilities.[84] It is very unlikely that the law will recognise this problem or endeavour to solve it, because it is occurring in the private sphere.[85] These are the problems that coronavirus has exacerbated. Additionally, the coronavirus pandemic has created new issues in the UK workforce because many people, most notably women and immigrants in atypical work, have lost their jobs due to the economic downturn and the law has failed to recognise that the issues facing men and women during this pandemic are different in many ways.[86] Women are more likely to be frontline healthcare workers, which additionally will have only increased their already substantial burden in terms of balancing professional work and private life responsibilities.[87] Furthermore, immigrant women (who like all other women are bearing a lot of the economic brunt of this crisis) because of the "'no recourse to public funds' condition stamped on many non-EU visas".[88] Additionally, undocumented women face even more issues because they are fearful of making use of social security or NHS services.[89] The response from the UK government in terms of labour law has failed to account for these differences. Furthermore, arguably this is more evidence of how the law is unconcerned with assisting women beyond pregnancy and childbirth because it demonstrates their unwillingness to get too over involved with the private sphere of life that would bring about a significant change in terms of the position of women within society. Conclusion This essay has demonstrated how UK law since 1997 has failed to ensure an effective work-life balance for those with familial responsibilities, an issue that has disproportionately affected women, as well as immigrants in the labour market. Additionally, it has shown that feminist perspectives are extremely useful in helping us to understand how women are still excluded from the UK workforce because the law refuses to go far enough to tackle harmful gender roles within society.[90] This is because the law is purely concerned with increasing competitiveness in the market and benefiting the economy and so ignores concerns about equality and human rights that EU law has adopted in its own rationales.[91] Women and immigrants in atypical or part time work are therefore often excluded from such benefits and arguably the Good Work Plan does not go far enough in the future to deal with these issues in the same way that perhaps the Directive on Work-Life Balance For Parents and Carers could if Brexit was not happening.[92] Furthermore, whilst the government response to coronavirus has been much more regulatory and helpful than predictions suggested, it has ignored the fact that women and men are experiencing different adverse effects because of the pandemic and worsened the dual burden women have to bear of paid and unpaid responsibilities.[93] [1] Hugh Collins, K.D. Ewing, Aileen McColgan, Labour Law (2nd edition, Cambridge University Press 2019) 398. [2] ibid. [3] Chris Kerridge, 'How can we overcome the UK's long working hours culture?' (People Management, 8 November 2019) accessed 15 November 2020. [4] Collins (n 1), 399. [5] Grace James, 'Family-friendly Employment Laws (Re)assessed: The Potential of Care Ethics' [2016] Industrial Law Journal 45(4), 477. [6] Sarah Dyer, 'Migrant work, precarious work-life balance: what the experience of migrant workers in the service sector in Greater London tells us about the adult worker model' [2011] Gender, Place and Culture; A Journal of Feminist Geography' 18. [7] Kate Power, 'The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the care burden of women and families' [2020] Sustainability: Science, Practice and Policy 16(1), 69. [8] Collins (n 1), 9. [9] Jamie Robertson, 'How the Big Bang changed the city of London for ever' (BBC News, 26 October 2016) accessed 5 December 2020. [10] Maria Koumenta and others, 'Occupational Regulation in the EU and UK: Prevalence and Labour Market Impacts' (Department for Business, Innovation and Skills Final Report, July 2014) accessed 30 November 2020. [11] Pat Hudson, 'Women's Work' (BBC History, 29 March 2013) accessed 25 November 2020. [12] Board of Trade, Fairness at Work (White Paper, Cm 3968, 1998). [13] ibid. [14] [1996] 96/34/EC. [15] ibid. [16] Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, Consultation on modern workplaces (Consultation, first published 16 May 2011). [17] HM Government, Good Work: A response to the Taylor Review of Modern Working Practices (Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and Employment Agency Standards Inspectorate, 2018). [18] Matthew Taylor, The Taylor Review of Modern Working Practices (Independent Review, Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, 2017). [19] Conor D'Arcy, Fahmida Rahman, 'Atypical Approaches; Options to Secure Workers with Insecure Income' (Resolution Foundation, January 2019). [20] Collins (n 1), 406. [21] Contracts That Do Not Guarantee a Minimum Number of Hours (Office for National Statistics, 23 April 2018) accessed 30 November 2020. [22] Trades Union Congress, Good Work Plan: Proposals to Better Support Families; TUC Responds to BEIS Consultation' (Consultation Response, 13 December 2019) accessed 7 December 2020. [23] Collins (n 1), 406. [24] Employment Rights Act 1996, section 80(G)(1). [25] Trades Union Congress, Good Work Plan: Proposals to Better Support Families; TUC Responds to BEIS Consultation' (Consultation Response, 13 December 2019) accessed 7 December 2020. [26] Mariña Fernández-Reino, 'Migrants in the UK Labour Market: An Overview' (Trust for London, 17 July 2017) accessed 4 December 2020. [27] Steve French, 'Between Globalisation and Brexit: Migration, Pay and the Road to Modern Slavery in the UK Hospitality Industry' [2018] Research in Hospitality Management 8(1). [28] Shared Parental Leave Regulations 2014. [29] Joanne Conaghan, Kerry Rittich, Labour Law, Work and Family: Critical and Comparative Perspectives (Oxford University Press 2005). [30] Collins (n 1), 425. [31] Nicole Busby, 'The evolution of gender equality and related employment policies: The case of work– family reconciliation' [2018] International Journal of Discrimination and the Law 18(2),105. [32] 96/34/EC. [33] Busby (n 33), 106. [34] ibid. [35] ibid at 105. [36] ibid. [37] ibid at 106. [38] ibid at 120. [39] ibid at 112. [40] 92/85. [41] 2006/54/EC. [42] C-32/93. [43] Collins (n 1), 407. [44] ibid at 404. [45] Lorna Adams and others, Pregnancy and Maternity Discrimination and Disadvantage: Summary of Key Findings (Equality and Human Rights Commission, Department for Innovation, Business and Skills, 2016). [46] ibid. [47] Amelia Gentleman, 'Pregnant? Wait Till the Boss Hears' (The Guardian, 23 June 2011) accessed 1 December 2020. [48] 2019/1158. [49] Rachel Crasnow, Chesca Lord, 'Will the New Radical Work-Life Balance Directive Help UK Parents and Carers? (Cloisters – Employment, 25 June 2019) accessed 5 December 2020. [50] ibid. [51] Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, 'The Good Work Plan' (Policy Paper, 17 December 2018) accessed 15 December 2020. [52] ibid. [53] Taylor (n 18). [54] Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, 'The Good Work Plan' (Policy Paper, 17 December 2018) accessed 15 December 2020. [55] ibid. [56] Trades Union Congress, Good Work Plan: Proposals to Better Support Families; TUC Responds to BEIS Consultation' (Consultation Response, 13 December 2019) accessed 7 December 2020. [57] ibid. [58] Helen Norman, 'Does Paternal Involvement in Childcare Influence Mother's Employment Trajectories During the Early Stages of Parenthood in the UK' [2019] British Sociological Association 54(2). [59] James (n 5), 480. [60] ibid. [61] Emily Grabham, 'The Strange Temporalities of Work-Life Balance Law' [2014] feminists@law 4(1). [62] Gaëlle Farrant, Luca Maria Pesando, Keiko Nowacka, 'Unpaid Care Work: The Missing Link in the Analysis of Gender Gaps in Labour Outcomes' (OECD Development Centre, 2014) accessed 2 December 2020. [63] ibid. [64] Mick Cunningham, 'Changing Attitudes toward the Male Breadwinner, Female Homemaker Family Model: Influences of Women's Employment and Education over the Lifecourse' [2008] Social Forces 87(1). [65] Collins (n 1), 422. [66] Collins (n 1), 409. [67] James (n 5), 480. [68] ibid at 478. [69] ibid. [70] Collins (n 1), 410. [71] Established by Yewens v Noakes [1880] 6 QBD 530. [72] Established by Stevenson Jordan v Macdonald and Evans [1952] 1 TLR 101. [73] Stringfellows v Quashie [2012] EWCA Civ 1735. [74] Carmichael v National Power plc [1999] UKHL 47. [75] Collins,(n 1), 410. [76] ibid at 411. [77] James (n 5). [78] Ibid at 485. [79] [2017] International Journal of Law in Context 13(3). [80] Jamie Atkinson, 'Shared Parental Leave in the UK: Can it Advance Gender Equality by Changing Fathers into Co-Parents?' [2017] International Journal of Law in Context 13(3), 361. [81] ibid. [82] Power (n 7). [83] ibid at 68. [84] ibid. [85] ibid. [86] Jenna Norman, 'Gender and COVID-19: The Immediate Impact the Crisis is Having on Women' [2020] British Politics and Policy at LSE. [87] ibid. [88] ibid. [89] ibid. [90] James (n 5). [91] Board of Trade, Fairness at Work (White Paper, Cm 3968, 1998). [92] 2019/1158. [93] Alison Andrew and others, 'How are mothers and fathers balancing work and family under lockdown' (Institute for Fiscal Sciences, 27 May 2020) accessed 12 November 2020.
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San Francisco is proving to be ground zero in the nationwide commercial real estate collapse. While the values of offices and malls are tumbling in many US cities, the losses in San Francisco are more dramatic and, unlike elsewhere, have extended to hotels. City and state government mismanagement have played a major role in destroying billions of dollars in assessable real estate values, but the role of these policies is easily overlooked. San Francisco's plight was thrown into sharp relief on June 5, when the owner of two downtown hotels containing a combined 2,925 rooms announced that it would cease making payments on a $725 million mortgage backed by the properties. Commercial bond investors will now have to find a company willing to purchase the hotels at a small fraction of their estimated 2020 valuation of $1.561 billion. In explaining the company's decision to walk away from the hotels, Thomas J. Baltimore, Jr., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Park Hotels and Resorts stated: After much thought and consideration, we believe it is in the best interest for Park's stockholders to materially reduce our current exposure to the San Francisco market. Now more than ever, we believe San Francisco's path to recovery remains clouded and elongated by major challenges – both old and new: record high office vacancy; concerns over street conditions; lower return to office than peer cities; and a weaker than expected citywide convention calendar through 2027 that will negatively impact business and leisure demand and will likely significantly reduce compression in the city for the foreseeable future.
Another nearby hotel is also experiencing a dramatic valuation decline. The 1,195-room Westin St. Francis Hotel has asked the local tax assessor to slash the combined assessment of its two parcels from $1.037 billion to $101 million. The hotels are within walking distance of the Westfield San Francisco Centre mall that is losing its anchor retailer, Nordstrom, this summer. Before Nordstrom announced the closure, S&P had already estimated that the mall's value had declined by over 70% since it was appraised in 2016. An even larger value decline was suffered by a 22‐story office tower at 350 California Street. After being valued at around $300 million in 2019, the property recently changed hands for between $60 million and $67.5 million according to media reports. When considering why San Francisco has suffered so much commercial real estate value destruction in the 2020s, it is tempting to conclude that the city's tech‐heavy workforce was better equipped to work from home. This factor played a role but should not be overestimated. Indeed, one common software development methodology, known as agile, often involved daily in‐person team meetings. So, it is not strictly true that software engineering is a solitary job. Rather than blame the pandemic or the local business mix, San Francisco and California political leaders should look inward at their policy errors that exacerbated the city's distress. Among these unforced errors were their harsh lockdown policies and the failure to provide adequate security in the downtown core. The Lockdown San Francisco and neighboring counties were the first to impose sweeping stay‐at‐home orders at the beginning of the COVID pandemic in the US. More importantly, San Francisco and its neighbors were slower than most other population centers to relax COVID-19 restrictions. Over a three‐year period, San Francisco's public health officer issued a blizzard of rules that were often lengthy and challenging to implement. As late as January 27, 2021 (over ten months into the pandemic), he issued an order that required "all residents in the County to reduce the risk of COVID-19 transmission by staying in their residences to the extent possible and minimizing trips and activities outside the home." At the time, California had more cases per capita than the less restrictive states of Texas and Florida, begging the question of how effective lockdown measures were. By continuing shelter‐at‐home restrictions for so long, San Francisco normalized remote work, thereby encouraging employers and employees to adopt to a new normal. Many employees moved beyond easy commuting distance from the city on the assumption that they could retain hybrid or fully remote work arrangements permanently. Although San Francisco's political leaders trumpet the city's low per capita death rate from COVID-19, some of that is attributable to individuals temporarily or permanently leaving the area, thereby deflating the true denominator of any death rate calculation. Economist Stephen Hanke has concluded that lockdowns had "a negligible effect" in COVID deaths. Lack of Security As the accompanying map shows, San Francisco has a very high concentration of high value properties in a small geographic area. Many of these $100 million plus properties (based on assessed value) are within walking distance of the Tenderloin neighborhood which has struggled over several decades. But in recent years, the social problems of the Tenderloin have increasingly spilled over into the adjacent, high‐value areas, deterring tourists, shoppers, and office workers from visiting.
Measuring crime trends is challenging. According to Police Department statistics, reported crimes in the first five months of 2023 are below pre‐pandemic levels. But some proportion of crime goes unreported and it is possible that this proportion has increased given the low likelihood that San Francisco police will identify a suspect. In 2022, only 2.9% of larceny thefts were cleared within one year. Also, residents clearly perceive an increase in crime. The most recent City Controller survey found that San Franciscans rated the city's safety a C+, the lowest grade since 1996. Safety ratings were especially low in the Tenderloin and two adjoining neighborhoods with high‐value commercial real estate: South of Market and Financial District/South Beach. Critics have highlighted various public safety policy concerns including the defund the police movement, lax prosecution, reclassification of shoplifting goods worth less than $950 as a misdemeanor, disincarceration, and lack of enforcement against open air drug markets. Since these issues have been covered elsewhere and libertarians have varying opinions about them, I'll address a couple of other aspects that have received less attention. First, the city has encouraged many individuals who may be more prone to criminal activity to concentrate in and around the Tenderloin. It has done this by establishing a cluster of thousands of supportive housing units, mostly in converted hotels in the area. Although residents of supportive housing are no longer defined as "homeless", many if not most are still dealing with issues such as drug addiction that contributed to their loss of shelter. During the pandemic, the city converted hundreds of additional hotel rooms in the area to temporary residences for unhoused homeless individuals in hopes of preventing them from getting and spreading COVID-19. But the unintended effect of this program, known as Project Roomkey, seems to have been to increase drug abuse and disorder at the periphery of the Tenderloin. One Project Roomkey property, Hotel Whitcomb, housed about four hundred homeless individuals, many of whom were continuing to use drugs. Shortly thereafter, a new open air drug market became established in an alley just south of Market Street. Both the hotel and the drug market were near a new Whole Foods store which was forced to close due to high rates of theft and violent criminal activity. Aside from concentrating potential offenders in the area, the city and activists appear to have neutered two quasi‐private mechanisms that allow business districts to enhance security levels beyond that which the city government would normally provide. Since 1847, San Francisco has had a category of law enforcement officers known as a Patrol Special Police. These trained officers can be directly hired by groups of merchants and/or homeowners to patrol and provide other security services within a designated area. In 1994, there were 72 patrol special police serving 65 areas. But their ranks decreased in recent decades and, as of 2022, only one officer remained. Although clients expressed a high level of satisfaction with their services, city policies have decimated the program. San Francisco's charter requires the city's Police Commission to approve new patrol special officers, but in recent years it has rarely done so. At the same time, the San Francisco Police Department offered a competing program under which city‐employed police officers could provide security services to local business when they would otherwise be off duty. Since clients must cover officer pay at overtime rates, this alternative is more expensive. Further, given the shortage of police officers in San Francisco today, there may not be enough staff to regularly serve clients who might be interested in purchasing their services. California has also given property owners the ability to form their own Business Improvement Districts (BIDs) since the 1990s. BIDs, also known locally as Community Benefit Districts (CBDs), are formed when owners representing a majority of the assessed valuation in a given area vote to tax themselves to finance district operations. San Francisco's Union Square area, the hotel and retail center that borders the Tenderloin, has had a BID in place since 1999. By 2018, the district was employing a large staff of cleaning ambassadors and safety ambassadors to deal with trash and quality of life issues respectively. The BID also installed a network of security cameras. But the district's efforts to force homeless individuals out of the area faced criticism from UC Berkeley's Public Policy Clinic and local activists. Since the pandemic, the BID, now known as the Union Square Alliance, may have become less effective at maintaining cleanliness and safety in its neighborhood. It is not clear whether this is due to the criticism it has received, the retirement of its long‐time executive director, or some other factor. Conclusion An overly energetic lockdown and actions that concentrated violent and unstable individuals in the downtown area have contributed to the collapse of real estate values in San Francisco's prime hotel, office, and retail districts. Quasi‐governmental institutions that might have stepped in to provide improved security and street conditions have been enfeebled in part by city policy. At this point, it does not appear that any set of feasible policies can restore downtown San Francisco to the heights it reached in 2019. A more realistic possibility is that it will stabilize at much lower levels of occupancy, activity, and value forming a new base from which to grow. New and remaining property owners should be given the tools and the space to restore a sense of security among those visiting, shopping, and staying in the neighborhood. Finally, city and state leaders should avoid overreacting to pandemics.
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The Biden Administration is proposing major changes to cost-benefit analysis used in all regulations. The preamble here, and the full text here. It is open for public comments until June 20. Economists don't often comment on proposed regulations. We should do so more often. Agencies take such comments seriously. And they can have an afterlife. I have seen comments cited in litigation and by judicial decisions. Even if you doubt the Biden Administration's desire to hear you on cost-benefit analysis, a comment is a marker that the inevitable eventual Supreme Court case might well consider. Comments tend only to come from interested parties and lawyers. Regular economists really should comment more often. I don't do it enough either. You can see existing comments: Search for Circular A-4 updates to get to https://www.regulations.gov/docket/OMB-2022-0014, then select "browse all comments." (Thanks to a good friend who sent this tip.) Take a look at comments from an MIT team led by Deborah Lucas here and by Josh Rauh. These are great models of comments. You don't have to review everything. Make one good point. Cost benefit analysis is useful even if imprecise. Lots of bright ideas in Washington (and Sacramento!) would struggle to document any net benefits at all. Yes, these exercises can lie, cheat, and steal, but having to come up with a quantitative lie can lay bare just how hare-brained many regulations are. Both Josh and the MIT response focus on the draft proposal's use of ultra-low discount rates, ranging from historic TIPS yields to arguments for zero or negative "social" discount rates. Josh emphasizes a beautiful compromise: always show the annual stream of costs and benefits. Then it's easy enough to apply different discount rates. No Black Boxes. Discount rates seem like a technical issue. But they matter a lot for climate policies, or for policies with substantial cost but putatively permanent benefits, because of the long horizons. For example, climate change is alleged to create costs of 5% of GDP in 100 years. So, let's assume a 0% discount rate -- treat the future just like the present. How much is it worth spending this year to eliminate additional climate change in 2100? Spend means real spending, real reductions in everyone's standard of living, not just funny money billions on twitter. If you answered "5% of GDP" (roughly $3,500 per person) that's wrong, for two crucial reasons. First, the economy grows over time. At a modest 2% real growth, US GDP will be 7.4 times as large in 100 years as it is today, or 640% greater. (e^2=7.4). Thus, 5% of GDP in 100 years, discounted at 0%, is 7.4 x 5% or 37% of today's GDP, or $17,500 per person today. Second, the gain is forever -- 5% of 2123 GDP, but 5% of 2124 GDP, and so on. Discounted at a zero rate, 5% of 2123 forever after that is worth... an infinite amount today. But GDP keeps growing after 2123. If you discount at anything less than the growth rate of GDP -- 2% in my example -- 5% of (growing) GDP forever is worth an infinite amount! So what if $250 billion subsidizing huge battery long range electric cars made by union labor in the USA from hypothetical US made lithium mines might, all in, save a thimbleful of carbon per car (is it even positive?), if the benefits are infinite, go for it. If you discount by a low, but somewhat more reasonable number like 7%, then a dollar in 100 years is worth 0.09 cents today (100 x e^-7). Now you know where to put your thumb on the climate scales! You might be wondering, if our great grandchildren are going to be so fantastically better off than we are, let them deal with it. Or you may be wondering that maybe there are other things we could do with money today that might speed up this magical growth process and do 5% better. For an infinite amount of money, is there nothing we can do to raise the growth rate from 2% to 2.05%? The latter opportunity cost question is, I think, a good way to think of discount rates. The average real return on stocks is something like 5%, at least. The average pre-tax marginal product of capital is higher; pick you number but it's in the range of 10% not 1%. The right "discount rate" is the rate of return on alternative uses of money. Josh and the MIT team are exactly right to point out that using the rate of return on risk free government bonds is a completely mistaken way to discount the very risky costs of climate damage -- that 5% is a very poorly known number -- and the even riskier benefits of the government's shifting climate policy passions. But I think phrasing the experiment in terms of opportunity costs rather than proper discounting of risky streams makes it more salient, despite the decades I have spent (and an entire book!) on the latter approach. Businesses can take $1 today and turn it in to, on average, $1.07 next year. Why take away that money for a project that yields $1.00 or $1.01 next year? The former question has a deeper consequence. Why should we suffer to help people, even our grandchildren, who will be on average 7.4 times better off than we are? How much would you ask your great grandparents to sacrifice to make you 5% better off than you are today? Here the low discount rate clashes interestingly with another part of the proposal: equity and transfers. From the preamble p. 12: A standard assumption in economics, informed by empirical evidence (as discussed below), is that an additional $100 given to a low-income individual increases the welfare of that individual more than an additional $100 given to a wealthy individual. Traditional benefit-cost analysis, which applies unitary weights to measures of willingness to pay, does not usually take into account how distributional effects may affect aggregate welfare because of differences in individuals' marginal utility of income. Related to the topic of distributional analysis is the question of whether agencies should be permitted or encouraged to develop estimates of net benefits using weights that take account of these differences.26 The proposed revisions to Circular A-4 suggest that agencies may wish to consider weights for each income group affected by a regulation that equal the median income of the group divided by median U.S. income, raised to the power of the elasticity of marginal utility times negative one.Now wait a darn-tootin' minute. The "standard" doctrine in economics is that you cannot make intra-personal utility comparisons. Utility is ordinal, not cardinal. Here cardinal-utility utilitarianism with equal Pareto-weights is about to be carved into federal stone. (To decide social benefit of taking from A and giving to B, you construct a social welfare function \(u(c_A) + \lambda u(c_B)\). This needs you to use the same \(u()\) for A and B, and agree on a Pareto-weight \(\lambda\) implicitly one here.) Imagine a simple regulation: take a dollar from Joe ($100,000 income) and give it to Kathy ($50,000 income). By this standard such a straightforward transfer passes a cost-benefit test. But this does not get applied over time. Taking a dollar from you and me, and at a discount rate of 0% giving it to our great grandchildren who will be 7.4 times better off should set off massive inequity alarm bells. Nope. Indeed, you can deduce a discount rate from the inequality goal. Pure undiscounted intergenerational equity requires a discount rate proportional to the economic growth rate. (With power utility, an intervention that costs A $1 to give B $\(e^{rt}\) just passes a cost-benefit test if \[c_A^{-\gamma} = e^{rt} (c_B)^{-\gamma}.\] If B is \(e^{gt}\) times as well off as A, \(c_B=e^{gt} \times c_A\) then we need \(r=\gamma g\). \( \gamma\) is usually a number a bit bigger than one. The preamble's discussion of \(\gamma\) values is pretty good, settling on a number between one and two. However, they haven't really heard of the finance literature: Evidence on risk aversion can be used to estimate the elasticity of marginal utility. In a constant-elasticity utility specification, the coefficient of relative risk aversion is the elasticity of marginal utility. There are numerous different estimates of the coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA), using data from a variety of different markets, including labor supply markets,29 the stock market,30 and insurance markets.31 Relevant estimates vary widely, though assumed values of the CRRA between 1 and 2 are common.3230 Robert S. Pindyck, "Risk Aversion and Determinants of Stock Market Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics 70, no. 2 (1988): 183-90 uses stock market data and estimates the CRRA to be "in the range of 3 to 4"Since then, of course, the whole equity premium literature sprang up with coefficients 10 to 50. Shh. That would justify insane levels of equity. The draft also encourages all sorts of unquantifiable non-economic "benefits," but I'll leave that for another day. Read and comment. BTW, despite my negative tone and picking on these elements, much of the draft is quite good. Here is a particularly nice piece, from p. 26 of the full text j. A Note Regarding Certain Types of Economic RegulationIn light of both economic theory and actual experience, it is particularly difficult to demonstrate positive net benefits for any of the following types of regulations: price controls in well-functioning competitive markets; production or sales quotas in well-functioning competitive markets; mandatory uniform quality standards for goods or services, if the potential problem can be adequately dealt with through voluntary standards or by disclosing information of the hazard to buyers or users; or controls on entry into employment or production, except (a) where needed to protect health and safety (e.g., Federal Aviation Administration tests for commercial pilots) or (b) to manage the use of common property resources (e.g., fisheries, airwaves, Federal lands, and offshore areas).Well, FAA tests and rules for commercial pilots is not actually quite so obvious and really needs a cost benefit test. "Commercial pilot" does not mean "airline pilot," it means can you do anything in an airplane and get money for it. But leave that for another day, these principles if applied could clean out a lot of mischief. Well, I guess many on the progressive left or nascent national-conservative right would deny there is such a thing as a "well-functioning competitive market." Update: I should have added: It's insane to make a once and for all cost benefit analysis, especially for projects with 100 year horizons. All regs should be re evaluated every 5 to 10 years, and use experience to update costs and benefits.
Objective − to present the experience with providing specialized medical care during mass hospitalization of victims of an industrial accident at the Listvyazhnaya mine in conditions of limited capacity of medical institutions due to the next wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.Materials and methods. November 25, 2021 at 8:30 local time at the Listvyazhnaya mine (Belovo, Kemerovo region) at a depth of 250 meters in the ventilation drift No. 823, there was an explosion of mine gases and smoke in all underground workings of the mine for 40 km. At 09:00, a message about the industrial accident was received by the unified dispatching service of the Ministry of Emergency Situations (MES). Brigades of the militarized mountain rescue unit (VGSCh) and employees of the nearest ambulance service in Belovo immediately left for the accident site.Of the 285 employees of the mine, 197 miners came to the surface on their own, of which 12 victims with mild to moderate carbon monoxide poisoning were taken to the Belovo City Hospital No. 8, a level II trauma center 10 km from the mine; 39 victims needed help from the VGSCh staff. Within 72 hours from the moment of the accident, 35 victims with the main diagnosis "Carbon monoxide poisoning" were evacuated to the Kuzbass Clinical Center for Miners' Health named after the Holy Great Martyr Barbara (Leninsk-Kuznetsky, level I trauma center, 30 km from the mine); 11 victims with the same diagnosis were taken to the acute poisoning department of the Kuzbass Clinical Emergency Hospital named after. M. A. Podgorbunsky (Kemerovo, level I trauma center, 110 km from the mine).Demographic data (age), circumstances and mechanism of injury, organizational features of receiving and providing assistance to victims, heart rate (HR), systolic blood pressure (SBP), level of consciousness and severity of injuries (Glasgow coma scale (GCS), Injury Severity Scale (ISS), Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS)) and the severity of carbon monoxide poisoning (CO) were analyzed.Analysis of the acid-base state and blood gases with the measurement of the levels of carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) and methemoglobin (MetHb) in whole venous blood was performed on a critical state analyzer "Cobas 221 S" (Roche Diagnostics, Germany).Statistical processing of the obtained data was carried out using the software package for processing statistical data of social sciences version 21 "IBM SPSS Statistics" (Statistical Product and Service Solutions − SPSS). Qualitative features are presented as absolute and relative (%) values. Quantitative variables are presented as arithmetic means (M) and the standard deviation of arithmetic means (SD), as Me (LQ–UQ), where Me is the median, (LQ–UQ) is the interquartile range (IQR) (LQ − 23 %, UQ − 75 % of the quartile).Results. Despite the difficult situation due to the re-profiling of 80 beds for the treatment of patients with the new coronovirus infection, at the time of the mass admission of victims from the internal reserves of Kuzbass Clinical Center of Miners' Health Protection named after The Holy Great Martyr Barbara, Leninsk-Kuznetsky, 10 beds were prepared in the intensive care unit (ICU), 40 beds in the departments of traumatology, surgery and neurosurgery. Additionally, 40 employees of the clinic were involved: 4 traumatologists, 3 surgeons, 3 anesthesiologist-resuscitators, neurologist, otolaryngologist, therapist, radiologist, functional diagnostics doctor, nurses of the operating unit and anesthetists, nurses.On the basis of Kuzbass Clinical Center of Miners' Health Protection named after The Holy Great Martyr Barbara, 30 victims were provided with medical care in accordance with previously developed protocols. Within 1 hour after the accident, 4 victims in serious condition were taken to the medical center and hospitalized to the intensive care unit. After 2-3 hours, another 26 people were delivered with barotrauma, carbon monoxide poisoning of moderate severity, bruises, abrasions of soft tissues. 26 % of the victims had lacerations of the head, trunk and limbs. The severity of the injury according to ISS was: M (SD) 6.2 (2) points. The severity of the condition of the victims was due to carbon monoxide poisoning. COHb levels within 0-3 % were recorded in 23.3 % of victims, within 4-10 % − in 63.3 % of victims, and a high level ≥ 11 % − in 13.4 % of victims. This made it possible to objectively assess the condition of the victims, clarify the diagnosis and conduct adequate treatment. The duration of non-invasive ventilation was Me (IQR) 1.4 (0.4-2.2) hours, the length of stay in the ICU Me (IQR) − 2.6 (0.5-2.6) hours, the duration of hospitalization in the clinic Me (IQR) − 6 (3.1-7.2) bed days.On the afternoon of November 25, 2021, 49 miners remained in the mine, as well as 6 mine rescuers, who did not return from search and rescue operations from a remote part of the mine. One victim was saved: he came to the surface on his own in more than 12 hours. The victim has poisoning and hypothermia of moderate severity. Despite the developed complication and acute renal failure due to reperfusion syndrome, this patient managed to be helped: like everyone else, he was discharged from the hospital with recovery.51 people died in the mine, including 5 people from the mine rescue team. The main reason is carbon monoxide poisoning.Conclusion. With a mass admission of victims, when there is a shortage of medical personnel involved in the provision of assistance, the issues of medical triage of victims, the targeted use of internal reserves and the potential of medical institutions to ensure the continuity of specialized medical care in the general health care system come to the fore.The unity of standards of diagnostics and treatment at all stages becomes the leading principle, which makes it possible to ensure the principle of continuity. In case of mass carbon monoxide poisoning, in order to assess the severity of the damage to the victims, it is necessary to correctly assess the acid-base state of the blood. The results of pulse oximetry in this situation, as a rule, are uninformative, they do not reflect the total oxygen content in the blood, which is accompanied by subsequent tissue hypoxia.It is necessary to improve the development of organizational technologies, operational management and personnel management, integrative management of forces and means in the context of ongoing innovative activities of medical institutions in the region. ; Цель работы — представить опыт оказания специализированной медицинской помощи при массовой госпитализации пострадавших в результате техногенной аварии на шахте «Листвяжная» в условиях ограниченных возможностей лечебных учреждений из-за очередной волны пандемии COVID-19.Материал и методы. 25 ноября 2021 года в 8 часов 30 минут по местному времени на шахте «Листвяжная» (г. Белово, Кемеровская область) на глубине 250 метров в вентиляционном штреке № 823 произошел взрыв шахтовых газов и задымление по всем подземным выработкам шахты на протяжении 40 км. В 09:00 сообщение о техногенной аварии поступило в единую диспетчерскую службу министерства по чрезвычайным ситуациям (МЧС). На место аварии сразу же выехали бригады военизированной горноспасательной части (ВГСЧ) и сотрудники ближайшей службы скорой помощи г. Белово.Из 285 сотрудников шахты на поверхность самостоятельно вышли 197 горняков, из них 12 пострадавших с отравлением угарным газом легкой и средней степени тяжести были доставлены в Беловскую городскую больницу № 8, травмоцентр II уровня в 10 км от шахты; 39 пострадавшим понадобилась помощь сотрудников ВГСЧ. В течение 72 часов с момента аварии 35 пострадавших с основным диагнозом «Отравление угарным газом» были эвакуированы в Кузбасский клинический центр охраны здоровья шахтеров имени святой великомученицы Варвары (ГБУЗ ККЦОЗШ, г. Ленинск-Кузнецкий, травмоцентр I уровня в 30 км от шахты); 11 пострадавших с аналогичным диагнозом были доставлены в отделение острых отравлений Кузбасской клинической больницы скорой медицинской помощи им. М. А. Подгорбунского (г. Кемерово, травмоцентр I уровня в 110 км от шахты).Анализировались демографические данные (возраст), обстоятельства и механизм травмы, организационные особенности приема и оказания помощи пострадавшим, частота сердечных сокращений (ЧСС), систолическое артериальное давление (САД), уровень сознания и тяжести полученных травм (шкала ком Глазго — GCS, шкала тяжести травмы — ISS, сокращенная шкала травмы — AIS) и степень тяжести отравления угарным газом (СО).Анализ кислотно-основного состояния и газов крови с измерением уровней карбоксигемоглобина (СOHb) и метгемоглобина (MetHb) в цельной венозной крови проводили на анализаторе критических состояний «Cobas 221 S» (Roche Diagnostics, Германия).Статистическую обработку полученных данных проводили с использованием пакета программ обработки статистических данных общественных наук версии 21 «IBM SPSS Statiatics» (Statistical Product and Service Solutions — SPSS). Качественные признаки представлены в виде абсолютных и относительных (%) значений. Количественные переменные представлены в виде средних арифметических величин (М) и квадратичного отклонения средних арифметических величин (SD), в виде Me (LQ–UQ), где ME — медиана, (LQ–UQ) — интерквартильный разброс (IQR) (LQ — 23%, UQ — 75% квартили). Результаты. Несмотря на сложную обстановку в связи с перепрофилированием 80 коек для лечения пациентов с новой короновирусной инфекцией, на момент массового поступления пострадавших из внутренних резервов ГБУЗ ККЦОЗШ были подготовлены 10 коек в отделении реанимации и интенсивной терапии (ОРИТ), 40 коек в отделениях травматологии, хирургии и нейрохирургии. Дополнительно были привлечены 40 сотрудников клиники: 4 травматолога, 3 хирурга, 3 анестезиолога-реаниматолога, невролог, ЛОР-врач, терапевт, врач рентгенолог, врач функциональной диагностики, медицинские сестры операционного блока и анестезисты, санитарки.На базе ГБУЗ ККЦОЗШ 30 пострадавшим была оказана медицинская помощь в соответствии с ранее разработанными протоколами. В течение 1 часа после аварии 4 пострадавших в тяжелом состоянии были доставлены в центр и госпитализированы в ОРИТ. Через 2–3 часа были доставлены еще 26 человек с баротравмой, отравлением угарным газом средней степени тяжести, ушибами, ссадинами мягких тканей. У 26 % пострадавших были рвано-ушибенные раны головы, туловища, конечностей. Тяжесть травмы по ISS составила: М (SD) 6,2 (2) балла. Тяжесть состояния пострадавших была обусловлена отравлением угарным газом. Уровень СOHb в пределах 0–3 % регистрировали у 23,3 % пострадавших, в пределах 4–10% — у 63,3 % пострадавших и высокий уровень ≥ 11 % – у 13,4 % пострадавших. Это позволило объективно оценить состояние пострадавших, уточнить диагноз и проводить адекватное лечение. Длительность неинвазивной вентиляции легких составила Me (IQR) 1,4 (0,4–2,2) часа, продолжительность пребывания в ОРИТ Me (IQR) 2,6 (0,5–2,6) часа, сроки госпитализации в клинике Me (IQR) 6 (3,1–7,2) койко-дней.Во второй половине дня 25 ноября 2021 г. в шахте оставались 49 шахтеров и 6 горноспасателей, которые не вернулись с поисково-спасательных работ из отдаленной части шахты. Одного пострадавшего удалось спасти: он вышел самостоятельно на поверхность более чем через 12 часов. У пострадавшего отравление и переохлаждение средней степени тяжести. Несмотря на развившееся осложнение, острую почечную недостаточность вследствие реперфузионного синдрома, этому больному удалось помочь: как и все остальные, он был выписан из стационара с выздоровлением.В шахте погиб 51 человек, в том числе 5 — из группы горноспасателей. Основная причина — отравление угарным газом.Заключение. При массовом поступлении пострадавших, когда наблюдается дефицит медицинского персонала, участвующего в оказании помощи, на первое место выступают вопросы медицинской сортировки пострадавших, целенаправленного использования внутренних резервов и потенциала лечебных учреждений для обеспечения непрерывности специализированной медицинской помощи в общей системе здравоохранения.Ведущим принципом становится единство стандартов диагностики, лечения на всех этапах, что позволяет обеспечить принцип преемственности. При массовом отравлении угарным газом для оценки степени тяжести поражения пострадавших необходимо обязательно правильно оценивать кислотно-основное состояние крови. Результаты пульсоксиметрии в данной ситуации, как правило, являются малоинформативными, они не отражают общего содержания кислорода в крови, что сопровождается последующей тканевой гипоксией.Необходимо совершенствовать разработку организационных технологий, оперативного управления и кадрового менеджмента, интегративного управления силами и средствами в условиях проводимой инновационной деятельности медицинских учреждений области.
COVID-19 pandemic has had a far-reaching impact along the agricultural value chains in Kenya. The Kenyan government placed drastic impact measures to flatten the curve of COVID-19 infections, which affected the value chain actors differently. To counter the economic mayhem caused by the pandemic, the usefulness of digital platforms has been amplified in agricultural value chains, especially in vegetables, root and tubers. It is not clear if, how and to what extent the existing digital platforms developed by several private companies or supported by donors have contributed and are still contributing to maintaining agri-food chains functional and securing the livelihoods of associated value chain actors in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMIC) countries during COVID 19 pandemic. It is on the foregoing that International Potato Center (CIP) implemented a study to understand the role of digital platforms in maintaining the value chains of vegetable, root and tuber crops functional in the face of COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. Web-based portal, Android mobile App and Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) Short code services were the main digital platforms of focus. The study was built on case studies from Viazi Soko (NCPK) digital platform for farmers, Twiga food for traders and Soko Kijiji groceries digital platform for consumers. A participatory research methodology was used to integrate the desktop research, key informant/expert interviews, focus group discussion (FGD) and the surveys involving various value chain actors along the food value chain i.e., traders, transporters, consumers, and farmers. The study adopted mixed method approach with concurrent nested option. Both Quantitative and qualitative data were collected. Quantitative aspects of the study were collected using a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face interviews to solicit primary information from 355 consumers, 100 traders and 370 farmers in the targeted sub-counties selected using multistage sampling technique. Quantitative data obtained was analyzed using Stata version 17 and SPSS version 28.0 to generate descriptive statistics. Propensity Score Matching was used to estimate the impact of the digital platforms on (i) the quantity of certified potato seeds used and (ii) the average weekly household expenditure on vegetables and fruits during the lockdown period. Structural equation model (SEM) was used to investigate (i) how producers' personality traits influence the usage of ViaziSoko for accessing quality farm Inputs and services and (ii) the role of entrepreneurial behavior in influencing use of digital platform in food purchase among consumers. For farmers, findings indicated that awareness and use of the digital platforms is still low. Approximately 32% of the interviewed farmers were aware of the digital platforms. Majority (86.55%) of those aware were medium and large-scale farmers. The use of apps through a mobile phone was the most preferred digital platform by roughly 91% of the farmers. The ease of accessing input information/services and awareness of digital application inspired the use of digital platforms. Farmers' attitude and proactiveness influenced perceived usefulness of the digital platforms. Despite being in existence even before the pandemic, most of the farmers started using digital platforms in response to the pandemic. Relatively, majority of farmers (32.05%) started using digital platforms to access quality seeds, while 12.82% started using them to access extension and advisory services on Good Advisory Practices (GAPs)as well as access to market/output information in response to the pandemic. The digital intervention contributed significantly to the increase in the frequency of use of digital platforms. The greatest increase in the frequency was observed in the services related to access to market/output information 3.85% (from 19.23% to 23.08%), extension and advisory services on GAPs 6.41% (from 16.67% to 23.08%) as well as pest and disease advisory services 6.41% (from 12.82% to 19.23%) respectively. The digital platform showed a gradual role in bridging the gap in terms of input access by farmers during the pandemic and approximately 95% of the interviewed farmers confirmed their intention to continue using the digital platforms (ViaziSoko) beyond the pandemic. For traders, the results revealed that most of them had procured their supplies over the mobile phone (91%) and through online platform (81%). On average, a single trader dealt in 16 different products. Vegetables was the most traded commodity across the three tie periods of analysis compared to roots and tubers. Fear or worry of getting infected with COVID-19 and liquidity constrain were the major threats affecting the business. Most of the traders procured their supplies from Nakuru before and during COVID-19 (77.97% and 88.52%). The increase in supplies during COVID-19 for Nakuru county resulted from Twiga foods supplies. Other traders procured their supplies from Nyandurua, Meru and Narok county. The quantity of vegetables and fruits sold to direct consumers, brokers/agents and sold to other outlets increased during COVID-19. Most traders (90.12%) started using online platform and 82.35% social media in response to the pandemic. Despite being the most adopted strategy in response to the pandemic, about 15% of traders are likely to cease or reduce the use of mobile phones to procure their supplies. This could be attributed to the high transaction costs involved in making payments for the supplies. Further, based on the perishability nature of agricultural products, traders would wish to physically see and choose products before making payments. Major sales and distribution strategies used in response to the pandemic are sales and distribution through social media (54.55%) and online platform (66.67%). Majority of traders (86%) reported to have made payments and financing electronically followed by advancing products as in-kind/trade creditors (73%) and lending cash to business partners (72%). Change in business working hours to avoid curfew and travel restrictions (90%) as well as the use of own savings to support business operation (86%) were the major business adaptation strategies used by traders. For consumers, about 41% used digital platforms to purchase fruits and vegetables out of which 97% of them used mobile application. Convenience (95.86%) and fear of health-related complication (84.83%) were the major motivational factors to use digital platforms. COVID-19 pandemic increased the demand for digital platforms among 85% of the consumers (where 63% started using and 22% increased the use digital platforms). About 81% of consumers were mainly using digital platforms to access market information. Consumer willingness to adopt the digital platform was influenced positively by group membership and negatively by age and education level of the household head and the dependency ratio. Group membership were basically social and informal groups in the urban areas where among other issues consumers discuss food and digital related issues as well as procurement strategies) Most consumers (76.56%) purchased fruits and vegetables from designated points followed by local retailers in the neighborhood (49.26%). Digital platforms gained popularity (from 13.35% to 38.53%) during the pandemic compared to other channels Streetcar booths (2.83%) was a new channel during the pandemic. Despite reducing popularity during the pandemic, designated markets channel supported about 48% of the proportion of purchase. Users of digital platform experienced fluctuating but above average in the weekly expenditure compared to their counterparts. Change in price of the vegetables and fruits was the major contributor to the fluctuation (90.54%). Findings revealed that at one point in time during the pandemic. all sampled consumers who purchased through the digital platform used mobile money transfer to make pay for fruits and vegetables, with 99.31% likely to continue using the platform beyond the pandemic. In terms of entrepreneurial behavior, proactiveness and Innovativeness positively and significantly influenced perceived behavioral control. This implies that the more a consumer acts in anticipation of future problems, needs, or changes and use of new ideas or methods, the more they will think of themselves as having the efficacy to use the digital platforms in purchasing vegetables. Attitude positively and significantly influence perceived usefulness implying that the more favorable a consumer's opinion of the vegetables purchasing digital tool is, the more the consumer will view the tool as useful. Perceived behavioral control influenced perceived usefulness positively implying that the more consumers considered themselves to have the ability to use the vegetables purchasing digital tool, the higher they will consider the tool as useful. Subjective norm was also found to positively and significantly influence perceived usefulness meaning that the more positive the consumer's peers' opinion about the vegetables purchasing digital tool is, the more the consumer will view the tool as useful. The study recommends the following suggestions: • It is clear agritech companies seeing pandemic is an opportunity for strengthening food value chain. However, they still lack sustainable business models for the agriculture contexts. Therefore, design for digital platforms need to integrate sustainable business models to avoid collapsing of the platforms due to heavy reliance on external support and inadequate revenue models. Adoption of a self-sustainable business approach as well as re-orienting the business approach towards public private partnerships and diversifying product/service portfolio by integrating different services and value chains, backward and forward integration to create new revenue streams provides some of the options for consideration by service providers. • Develop a framework for embedding farmer oriented in existing local extension services to support practical implementation of agronomic recommendations. • Enhancing entrepreneur behavior of farmers and traders is critical in adoption of agri-digital solutions. • Building agile business with flexibility to adjust to various shocks beyond the pandemic. Focusing on the transition post COVID will be critical in maintaining the business space of the digital platforms by building strong market offering. • Donor support is critical for digital startups at the beginning of the business as many startups are coming up during this pandemic time, however, it is critical for donor to analyze their business model for sustainability of digital platform especially the platforms with little or no commercial orientation but have a clear welfare gain with social enterprise business model. • Strong bio-security measures in the context of COVID-19 are important in enhancing trust especially in product handling by the agricultural digital service providers. • Combined county permits to allow one easily transaction in any county with fresh produce among digital platforms with strong cross county distribution of products to traders. This has implication in increasing cost of business. • Product differentiation is key in making the digital platforms competitiveness. Strong focus of the digital platforms in providing unique products and solutions in ever-changing environment is key in keeping pace with consumers dynamic needs, key among them Enhance interactiveness between agricultural digital solutions and clients e.g. chatbot Integrating youth entrepreneurs and higher education students to support development of ICT related agri solutions e.g., accessible database by use of USSD code for vendors to easily authenticate the quality of the produce as well as data science. This will facilitate creation of robust learning curve to trigger development of marketable and viable agricultural digital services.
Submitted 2020-07-05 | Accepted 2020-08-14 | Available 2020-12-01https://doi.org/10.15414/afz.2020.23.mi-fpap.205-213The African Chicken Genetic Gain (ACGG) project (https://africacgg.net/) aims at backyard poultry optimization by commercial dual-purpose breeds introduction into Africa. To measure benefits, genotype by environment interaction (GxE) analysis provides guidance while predicting environmental effects on production traits of breeds. A survey among Ethiopian poultry smallholders showed egg sale being the most important purpose of keeping village chickens in Oromia. Data was available about laying of 894 ACGG chickens in Oromia. Hence current research questions were: 1) Does GxE take place? 2) Which breed performs best regarding laying and in which environment within Oromia? Traits investigated were egg number and egg weight of five breeds (S-RIR, Sasso, Horro, Kuroiler and Koekoek) located in three zones (East Hararge, East and West Shoa) and 5 districts (Adami Tulu, Bako Tibe, Dano, Dugda and Haromaya) in Oromia. Observations were taken as group measure performing weighted analyses. GxE was only present for egg number with magnitude strongest for zone. S-RIR performed best for both traits in both environments, except Kuroiler performing better in East Shoa for egg number and Koekoek for egg weight. This indicates success of crossbreed S-RIR. Sasso and Horro performed worst supported by previous research for Horro but not Sasso. Low precipitation in East Shoa caused bigger distance in egg number predictions, being higher for S-RIR and lower for Horro and Sasso compared to West Shoa. Apart from these final conclusions, social context of breeding and data collection difficulties should not be forgotten. 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Mención Internacional en el título de doctor ; Android is the leading operating system in smartphones with a big difference. Statistics show that 88% of all smartphones sold to end users in the second quarter of 2018 were phones with the Android OS. Regardless of the operating systems which are running on smartphones, most of the functionalities of these devices are offered through applications. There are currently over 2 million apps only on the official Google store, known as Google Play. This huge market with billions of users is tempting for attackers to develop and distribute their malicious apps (or malware). Mobile malware has raised explosively since 2009. Symantec reported an increase of 54% in the new mobile malware variants in 2017 as compared to the previous year. Additionally, more incentive has been provided for profit-driven malware by the growth of black markets. This rise has happened for Android malware as well since only 20% of devices are running the newest major version of Android OS based on Symantec report in 2018. Android continued to be the most targeted platform with the biggest number of attacks in 2015. After that year, attacks against the Android platform slowed for the first time as attackers were faced with improved security architectures though Android is still the main appealing target OS for attackers. Moreover, advanced types of Android malware are found which make use of extensive anit-analysis techniques to evade static or dynamic analysis. To address the security and privacy concerns of complex Android malware, this dissertation focuses on three main objectives. First of all, we propose a light-weight yet efficient method to identify risky Android applications. Next, we present a precise approach to characterize Android malware based on their malicious behavior. Finally, we propose an adaptive learning system to address the security concerns of obfuscation in Android malware. Identifying potentially dangerous and risky applications is an important step in Android malware analysis. To this end, we develop a triage system to rank applications based on their potential risk. Our approach, called TriFlow, relies on static features which are quick to obtain. TriFlow combines a probabilistic model to predict the existence of information flows with a metric of how significant a flow is in benign and malicious apps. Based on this, TriFlow provides a score for each application that can be used to prioritize analysis. It also provides the analysts with an explanatory report of the associated risk. Our tool can also be used as a complement with computationally expensive static and dynamic analysis tools. Another important step towards Android malware analysis lies in their accurate characterization. Labeling Android malware is challenging yet crucially important, as it helps to identify upcoming malware samples and threats. A key challenge is that different researchers and anti-virus vendors assign labels using their own criteria, and it is not known to what extent these labels are aligned with the apps' real behavior. Based on this, we propose a new behavioral characterization method for Android apps based on their extracted information flows. As information flows can be used to track why and how apps use specific pieces of information, a flowbased characterization provides a relatively easy-to-interpret summary of the malware sample's behavior. Not all Android malware are easy to analyze due to advanced and easyto-apply anti-analysis techniques that are available nowadays. Obfuscation is the most common anti-analysis technique that Android malware use to evade detection. Obfuscation techniques modify an app's source (or machine) code in order to make it more difficult to analyze. This is typically applied to protect intellectual property in benign apps, or to hinder the process of extracting actionable information in the case of malware. Since malware analysis often requires considerable resource investment, detecting the particular obfuscation technique used may contribute to apply the right analysis tools, thus leading to some savings. Therefore, we propose AndrODet, a mechanism to detect three popular types of obfuscation in Android applications, namely identifier renaming, string encryption, and control flow obfuscation. AndrODet leverages online learning techniques, thus being suitable for resource-limited environments that need to operate in a continuous manner. We compare our results with a batch learning algorithm using a dataset of 34,962 apps from both malware and benign apps. Experimental results show that online learning approaches are not only able to compete with batch learning methods in terms of accuracy, but they also save significant amount of time and computational resources. Finally, we present a number of open research directions based on the outcome of this thesis. ; Android es el sistema operativo líder en teléfonos inteligentes (también denominados con la palabra inglesa smartphones), con una gran diferencia con respecto al resto de competidores. Las estadísticas muestran que el 88% de todos los smartphones vendidos a usuarios finales en el segundo trimestre de 2018 fueron teléfonos con sistema operativo Android. Independientemente de su sistema operativo, la mayoría de las funcionalidades de estos dispositivos se ofrecen a través de aplicaciones. Actualmente hay más de 2 millones de aplicaciones solo en la tienda oficial de Google, conocida como Google Play. Este enorme mercado con miles de millones de usuarios es tentador para los atacantes, que buscan distribuir sus aplicaciones malintencionadas (o malware). El malware para dispositivos móviles ha aumentado de forma exponencial desde 2009. Symantec ha detectado un aumento del 54% en las nuevas variantes de malware para dispositivos móviles en 2017 en comparación con el año anterior. Además, el crecimiento del mercado negro (es decir, plataformas no oficiales de descargas de aplicaciones) supone un incentivo para los programas maliciosos con fines lucrativos. Este aumento también ha ocurrido en el malware de Android, aprovechando la circunstancia de que solo el 20% de los dispositivos ejecutan la versión mas reciente del sistema operativo Android, de acuerdo con el informe de Symantec en 2018. De hecho, Android ha sido la plataforma que ha centrado los esfuerzos de los atacantes desde 2015, aunque los ataques decayeron ligeramente tras ese año debido a las mejoras de seguridad incorporadas en el sistema operativo. En todo caso, existen formas avanzadas de malware para Android que hacen uso de técnicas sofisticadas para evadir el análisis estático o dinámico. Para abordar los problemas de seguridad y privacidad que causa el malware en Android, esta Tesis se centra en tres objetivos principales. En primer lugar, se propone un método ligero y eficiente para identificar aplicaciones de Android que pueden suponer un riesgo. Por otra parte, se presenta un mecanismo para la caracterización del malware atendiendo a su comportamiento. Finalmente, se propone un mecanismo basado en aprendizaje adaptativo para la detección de algunos tipos de ofuscación que son empleados habitualmente en las aplicaciones maliciosas. Identificar aplicaciones potencialmente peligrosas y riesgosas es un paso importante en el análisis de malware de Android. Con este fin, en esta Tesis se desarrolla un mecanismo de clasificación (llamado TriFlow) que ordena las aplicaciones según su riesgo potencial. La aproximación se basa en características estáticas que se obtienen rápidamente, siendo de especial interés los flujos de información. Un flujo de información existe cuando un cierto dato es recibido o producido mediante una cierta función o llamada al sistema, y atraviesa la lógica de la aplicación hasta que llega a otra función. Así, TriFlow combina un modelo probabilístico para predecir la existencia de un flujo con una métrica de lo habitual que es encontrarlo en aplicaciones benignas y maliciosas. Con ello, TriFlow proporciona una puntuación para cada aplicación que puede utilizarse para priorizar su análisis. Al mismo tiempo, proporciona a los analistas un informe explicativo de las causas que motivan dicha valoración. Así, esta herramienta se puede utilizar como complemento a otras técnicas de análisis estático y dinámico que son mucho más costosas desde el punto de vista computacional. Otro paso importante hacia el análisis de malware de Android radica en caracterizar su comportamiento. Etiquetar el malware de Android es un desafío de crucial importancia, ya que ayuda a identificar las próximas muestras y amenazas de malware. Una cuestión relevante es que los diferentes investigadores y proveedores de antivirus asignan etiquetas utilizando sus propios criterios, de modo no se sabe en qué medida estas etiquetas están en línea con el comportamiento real de las aplicaciones. Sobre esta base, en esta Tesis se propone un nuevo método de caracterización de comportamiento para las aplicaciones de Android en función de sus flujos de información. Como dichos flujos se pueden usar para estudiar el uso de cada dato por parte de una aplicación, permiten proporcionar un resumen relativamente sencillo del comportamiento de una determinada muestra de malware. A pesar de la utilidad de las técnicas de análisis descritas, no todos los programas maliciosos de Android son fáciles de analizar debido al uso de técnicas anti-análisis que están disponibles en la actualidad. Entre ellas, la ofuscación es la técnica más común que se utiliza en el malware de Android para evadir la detección. Dicha técnica modifica el código de una aplicación para que sea más difícil de entender y analizar. Esto se suele aplicar para proteger la propiedad intelectual en aplicaciones benignas o para dificultar la obtención de pistas sobre su funcionamiento en el caso del malware. Dado que el análisis de malware a menudo requiere una inversión considerable de recursos, detectar la técnica de ofuscación que se ha utilizado en un caso particular puede contribuir a utilizar herramientas de análisis adecuadas, contribuyendo así a un cierto ahorro de recursos. Así, en esta Tesis se propone AndrODet, un mecanismo para detectar tres tipos populares de ofuscación, a saber, el renombrado de identificadores, cifrado de cadenas de texto y la modificación del flujo de control de la aplicación. AndrODet se basa en técnicas de aprendizaje automático en línea (online machine learning), por lo que es adecuado para entornos con recursos limitados que necesitan operar de forma continua, sin interrupción. Para medir su eficacia respecto de las técnicas de aprendizaje automático tradicionales, se comparan los resultados con un algoritmo de aprendizaje por lotes (batch learning) utilizando un dataset de 34.962 aplicaciones de malware y benignas. Los resultados experimentales muestran que el enfoque de aprendizaje en línea no solo es capaz de competir con el basado en lotes en términos de precisión, sino que también ahorra una gran cantidad de tiempo y recursos computacionales. Tras la exposición de las contribuciones anteriormente mencionadas, esta Tesis concluye con la identificación de una serie de líneas abiertas de investigación con el fin de alentar el desarrollo de trabajos futuros en esta dirección. ; Omid Mirzaei is a Ph.D. candidate in the Computer Security Lab (COSEC) at the Department of Computer Science and Engineering of Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M). His Ph.D. is funded by the Community of Madrid and the European Union through the research project CIBERDINE (Ref. S2013/ICE-3095). ; Programa Oficial de Doctorado en Ciencia y Tecnología Informática ; Presidente: Gregorio Martínez Pérez.- Secretario: Pedro Peris López.- Vocal: Pablo Picazo Sánchez
As a cradle of ancient Chinese civilization, the Yellow River Basin has a very long human-environment interrelationship, where early anthropogenic activities re- sulted in large scale landscape modifications. Today, the impact of this relationship has intensified further as the basin plays a vital role for China's continued economic development. It is one of the most densely-populated, fastest growing, and most dynamic regions of China with abundant natural and environmental resources providing a livelihood for almost 190 million people. Triggered by fundamental economic reforms, the basin has witnessed a spectacular economic boom during the last decades and can be considered as an exemplary blueprint region for contemporary dynamic Global Change processes occurring throughout the country, which is currently transitioning from an agrarian-dominated economy into a modern urbanized society. However, this resourcesdemanding growth has led to profound land use changes with adverse effects on the Yellow River social-ecological systems, where complex challenges arise threatening a long-term sustainable development. Consistent and continuous remote sensing-based monitoring of recent and past land cover and land use change is a fundamental requirement to mitigate the adverse impacts of Global Change processes. Nowadays, technical advancement and the multitude of available satellite sensors, in combination with the opening of data archives, allow the creation of new research perspectives in regional land cover applications over heterogeneous landscapes at large spatial scales. Despite the urgent need to better understand the prevailing dynamics and underlying factors influencing the current processes, detailed regional specific land cover data and change information are surprisingly absent for this region. In view of the noted research gaps and contemporary developments, three major objectives are defined in this thesis. First (i), the current and most pressing social-ecological challenges are elaborated and policy and management instruments towards more sustainability are discussed. Second (ii), this thesis provides new and improved insights on the current land cover state and dynamics of the entire Yellow River Basin. Finally (iii), the most dominant processes related to mining, agriculture, forest, and urban dynamics are determined on finer spatial and temporal scales. The complex and manifold problems and challenges that result from long-term abuse of the water and land resources in the basin have been underpinned by policy choices, cultural attitude, and institutions that have evolved over centuries in China. The tremendous economic growth that has been mainly achieved by extracting water and exploiting land resources in a rigorous, but unsustainable manner, might not only offset the economic benefits, but could also foster social unrest. Since the early emergence of the first Chinese dynasties, flooding was considered historically as a primary issue in river management and major achievements have been made to tame the wild nature of the Yellow River. Whereas flooding is therefore largely now under control, new environmental and social problems have evolved, including soil and water pollution, ecological degradation, biodiversity decline, and food security, all being further aggravated by anthropogenic climate change. To resolve the contemporary and complex challenges, many individual environmental laws and regulations have been enacted by various Chinese ministries. However, these policies often pursue different, often contradictory goals, are too general to tackle specific problems and are usually implemented by a strong top-down approach. Recently, more flexible economic and market-based incentives (pricing, tradable permits, investments) have been successfully adopted, which are specifically tailored to the respective needs, shifting now away from the pure command and regulating instruments. One way towards a more holistic and integrated river basin management could be the establishment of a common platform (e.g. a Geographical Information System) for data handling and sharing, possibly operated by the Yellow River Basin Conservancy Commission (YRCC), where available spatial data, statistical information and in-situ measures are coalesced, on which sustainable decision-making could be based. So far, the collected data is hardly accessible, fragmented, inconsistent, or outdated. The first step to address the absence and lack of consistent and spatially up-to-date information for the entire basin capturing the heterogeneous landscape conditions was taken up in this thesis. Land cover characteristics and dynamics were derived from the last decade for the years 2003 and 2013, based on optical medium-resolution hightemporal MODIS Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series at 250 m. To minimize the inherent influence of atmospheric and geometric interferences found in raw high temporal data, the applied adaptive Savitzky-Golay filter successfully smoothed the time series and substantially reduced noise. Based on the smoothed time series data, a large variety of intra-annual phenology metrics as well as spectral and multispectral annual statistics were derived, which served as input variables for random forest (RF) classifiers. High quality reference data sets were derived from very high resolution imagery for each year independently of which 70 % trained the RF models. The accuracy assessments for all regionally specific defined thematic classes were based on the remaining 30 % reference data split and yielded overall accuracies of 87 % and 84 % for 2003 and 2013, respectively. The first regional adapted Yellow River Land Cover Products (YRB LC) depict the detail spatial extent and distribution of the current land cover status and dynamics. The novel products overall differentiate overall 18 land cover and use classes, including classes of natural vegetation (terrestrial and aquatic), cultivated classes, mosaic classes, non-vegetated, and artificial classes, which are not presented in previous land cover studies so far. Building on this, an extended multi-faceted land cover analysis on the most prominent land cover change types at finer spatial and temporal scales provides a better and more detailed picture of the Yellow River Basin dynamics. Precise spatio-temporal products about mining, agriculture, forest, and urban areas were examined from long-trem Landsat satellite time series monitored at annual scales to capture the rapid rate of change in four selected focus regions. All archived Landsat images between 2000 and 2015 were used to derive spatially continuous spectral-temporal, multi-spectral, and textural metrics. For each thematic region and year RF models were built, trained and tested based on a stablepixels reference data set. The automated adaptive signature (AASG) algorithm identifies those pixels that did not change between the investigated time periods to generate a mono-temporal reference stable-pixels data set to keep manual sampling requirements to a minimum level. Derived results gained high accuracies ranging from 88 % to 98 %. Throughout the basin, afforestation on the Central Loess Plateau and urban sprawl are identified as most prominent drivers of land cover change, whereas agricultural land remained stable, only showing local small-scale dynamics. Mining operations started in 2004 on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which resulted in a substantial loss of pristine alpine meadows and wetlands. In this thesis, a novel and unique regional specific view of current and past land cover characteristics in a complex and heterogeneous landscape was presented by using a multi-source remote sensing approach. The delineated products hold great potential for various model and management applications. They could serve as valuable components for effective and sustainable land and water management to adapt and mitigate the predicted consequences of Global Change processes. ; Der Gelbe Fluss - in der Landessprache Huange He genannt - ist für die Ausprägung und Entwicklung der chinesischen Kultur von großer Bedeutung. Aufgrund der frühen Einflussnahme auf die natürlichen Ökosysteme in dieser Region durch den Menschen, entwickelte sich dort eine ausgeprägte Interaktion zwischen Mensch und Umwelt. Diese Wechselbeziehung hat sich infolge der gegenwärtigen rapiden sozioökonomischen Veränderungen in den letzten Jahrzehnten weiter intensiviert. Das Einzugsgebiet des Gelben Flusses bildet die Lebensgrundlage für fast 190 Millionen Menschen, die zum Großteil von natürlichen Ressourcen abhängig sind. Zudem gehört es zu den wirtschaftlich bedeutendsten und am schnellsten wachsenden Regionen in ganz China. Durch weitreichende Reformen wurde ein wirtschaftlicher Aufstieg forciert, um den Agrarstaat China zu einem modernen Industrie- und Dienstleistungsstaat weiterzuentwickeln. Ein derartiges rasantes wie auch ressourcenintensives Wirtschaftswachstum führte schließlich zu einem enormen Wandel in den Bereichen der Landbedeckung und Landnutzung. Hinzu kamen neue und komplexere wirtschafts-, sozial- und umweltpolitische Herausforderungen, die bis heute eine langfristige und nachhaltige Entwicklung der Region gefährden. Aus diesem Blickwinkel kann das Becken des Gelben Flusses als regionales Spiegelbild der durch den Globalen Wandel bedingten, gegenwärtigen Veränderungsprozesse in ganz China gelten. Eine wichtige Voraussetzung für den adäquaten Umgang mit den Herausforderungen des Globalen Wandels sind kontinuierliche Informationen über aktuelle sowie historische Veränderungen von Landbedeckung und Landnutzung. Infolge der technologischen Entwicklung steht heute eine Vielfalt an Satellitenbildsystemen mit immer höherer zeitlicher und räumlicher Auflösung zur Verfügung. In Verbindung mit kostenfreien und offenen Datenzugriffen ist es möglich, daraus neue Forschungsperspektiven im Bereich der Landoberflächenkartierung - insbesondere für heterogene Landschaften - zu entwickeln. Zur Generierung thematischer Karten werden häufig Klassifikationen entlang verschiedener räumlicher und zeitlicher Skalen vollzogen. Daraus können zusätzlich die nötigen Informationen für lokale wie auch regionale Entscheidungsträger abgeleitet werden. Trotz dieser neuen Möglichkeiten sind regionalspezifische Informationen, die einem besseren Verständnis der Dynamiken von Landoberflächen im Bereich des Gelben-Fluss-Beckens dienen, noch rar. Dieses Forschungsdesiderat wurde im Rahmen dieser Arbeit aufgegriffen, wobei folgende Schwerpunkte gesetzt werden: (i) Zunächst werden die vorherrschenden sozioökologischen Herausforderungen für das gesamte Einzugsgebiet des Gelben Flusses dargestellt sowie verschiedene Management- sowie Politikmodelle für eine nachhaltigere Ressourcennutzung diskutiert. (ii) Darauf aufbauend wird die fernerkundliche Ableitung von Landbedeckungs- und Landnutzungsveränderungen der letzten Dekade im Gebiet des gesamten Gelben Flusses flächendeckend durchgeführt und anschließend interpretiert. (iii) Im letzten Schritt werden basierend auf den zuvor abgeleiteten Informationsprodukten die dominierenden Landoberflächendynamiken in höherer zeitlicher und räumlicher Auflösung detailliert untersucht. Insbesondere die dynamischen Prozesse der Minenausbreitung, Landwirtschaft, Waldgebiete und der urbanen Räume rücken in den Fokus. Aufgrund jahrzehntelanger Übernutzung der natürlichen Ressourcen im Gebiet des Gelben Flusses in Verbindung mit politischen Entscheidungen, der vorherrschenden kulturellen Prägung wie auch der Entwicklung der dort ansässigen Institutionen ist eine vielschichtige Problematik entstanden, die für die gesamte Region eine große Herausforderung darstellt. Durch frühzeitige Maßnahmen der Flutbekämpfung und Flussregulierung konnte den zahlreichen Überflutungen der Vergangenheit entgegengewirkt und das Risiko großflächiger Überschwemmungen minimiert werden. Trotz dieser Erfolge ergeben sich laufend neue, komplexere Herausforderungen mit verheerenden Auswirkungen auf Ökologie und Gesellschaft, wie zum Beispiel Boden- und Wasserdegradation, Entwaldung, Rückgang der Artenvielfalt, Ernährungsunsicherheiten und ein steigendes soziales Ungleichgewicht. Durch den anthropogenen Klimawandel werden diese negativen Probleme noch weiter verstärkt. Zwar wurden sie von der chinesischen Regierung als solche erkannt, dennoch scheiterten die Versuche, mit zahlreichen Gesetzen und Verordnungen die genannten Folgen einzudämmen, an unkonkreten Formulierungen, so dass diese der Komplexität der Herausforderungen nicht gerecht wurden. Die in jüngster Zeit verfolgten modernen und deutlich flexibleren, marktorientierten Ansätze (z.B. Subventionen, Wasserzertifikate), die speziell an die lokalen Gegebenheiten angepasst wurden, zeigen bereits Erfolge. Mit Hilfe einer gemeinsamen Daten- und Informationsplattform, beispielsweise in Form eines Geographischen Informationssystems (GIS), wäre eine integrierte und holistische Flussmanagementstrategie für den Gelben Fluss leichter realisierbar. Auf diese Weise könnten alle verfügbaren statistischen-, räumlichen- und Feldaufnahmen gespeichert, harmonisiert und geteilt und so die bisher noch unvollständigen und veralteten Daten laufend aktualisiert werden. Die Flussbehörde des Gelben Flusses (Yellow River Conservancy Commission) böte sich an, ein solches System zu verwalten. In dieser Arbeit wird die heterogene Landbedeckungsstruktur für das gesamte Einzugsgebiet des Gelben Flusses für die Jahre 2003 und 2013 erfasst und interpretiert. Die fernerkundlichen Eingangsdaten für die einzelnen Klassifikationen bestehen aus optischen MODIS NDVI-Zeitserien, aus denen jährlich phänologische Parameter berechnet werden. Da die Qualität optischer Satellitenbilder häufig durch Wolken und Schatten beeinträchtigt ist, müssen die betroffenen Flächen maskiert und entfernt werden. Die so entstandenen Lücken in der Zeitserie werden durch einen Filteralgorithmus (SavitskyGolay) aufgefüllt und geglättet. Die verwendeten RandomForest-Klassifikationsverfahren ermöglichen die Ableitung von Landbedeckungen und -dynamiken. Diese neuen und räumlich detaillierten Produkte unterscheiden insgesamt 18 verschiedene Landbedeckungsund Landnutzungsklassen. Erstmals liefern diese eine regional spezifische Charakterisierung der vorherrschenden Landbedeckung im Gebiet des Gelben Flusses. Darauf aufbauend erfolgt eine sowohl zeitlich als auch räumlich detailliertere Untersuchung der wichtigsten Veränderungen im Bereich der Landbedeckung, die auf dichten Landsat-Zeitserien basiert. Jährliche Informationen über Dynamiken von Minenabbaugebieten, Landwirtschaft, Waldgebieten und urbanen Räumen zeigen präzise lokale Veränderungen im Einzugsgebiet des Gelben Flusses. Die daraus abgeleiteten Ergebnisse lassen insbesondere auf dem Lössplateau die Auswirkungen ökologischer Restorationsmaßnahmen erkennen, bei denen degradierte Flächen in Waldsysteme umgewandelt wurden. Auf dem Qinghai-Tibet-Plateau zeigt sich eine dramatische Ausbreitung von Kohletagebau zu Lasten der besonders anfälligen alpinen Matten und Feuchtgebiete. Auch der anhaltende Trend zur Urbanisierung spiegelt sich in den hier gewonnenen Ergebnissen deutlich wider. Durch die Kombination von Fernerkundungsdaten unterschiedlicher räumlicher und zeitlicher Auflösungen liefert diese Arbeit neue und bisher einzigartige Einblicke in historische und aktuelle Landbedeckungsdynamiken einer heterogenen Landschaft. Die regionalen Analysen wie auch die thematischen Informationsprodukte besitzen somit großes Potential zur Verbesserung der Informationsgrundlage. Die Ergebnisse dienen außerdem als aussagekräftige Entscheidungsgrundlage mit dem Ziel eines angemessenen und nachhaltigen Land- und Wassermanagements für die natürlichen Ökosysteme im Becken des Gelben Flusses.
Animal personality is defined by consistent between-individual differences in behaviour through time or across contexts. Behaviour is further organised into broader behavioural dimensions referred to as personality traits (e.g. fearfulness, aggressive- ness or boldness). While animal personality is a relatively new field, researchers have been interested in quantifying and predicting stable behavioural traits or dimensions in domestic dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) for over fifty years. Nonetheless, deciding which personality traits are most relevant or which traits behaviours reflect remains a difficult task for animal (as well as human) personality researchers. Largely, this is because personality is something we infer from behavioural data rather than directly observe, which depends on the conceptual and methodological approach taken. For dogs in particular, the predictive validity of personality assessments has been inconsis- tent, such as in behavioural assessments of shelter dogs. Moreover, there have been a diverse number of traits and behavioural dimensions proposed, with little consensus across studies on which traits are most relevant for describing dog behaviour. This thesis evaluated conceptual and methodological issues of assessing personality and personality traits in dogs. In particular, the papers addressed key aspects of the statistical analysis of behavioural data on dogs for making inferences about personality and personality traits, drawing upon perspectives across both ethology and human psychology. The papers demonstrate three broad results. First, research to understand which personality traits underlie dog behaviour would benefit from moving from largely exploratory-based to hypothesis-driven frameworks. Personality traits in dogs are usually inferred by using exploratory latent variable sta- tistical models, such as principal components analysis, and studies have applied a mix- ture of latent variable models that have differing underlying assumptions. Confirma- tory, reflective latent variable models provide a more powerful framework for testing competing hypotheses about the latent structure of behavioural data in dogs and for verifying the robustness of the derived personality traits. Using data on inter-context aggressive behaviour towards people and dogs in shelter dogs, we found two, corre- lated latent variables: aggressiveness towards people and dogs, respectively. However, these posited traits failed to account for all of the co-variation between aggressive be- haviour across contexts, violating the assumption of local independence. Moreover, in- teractions between aggression contexts and the sex and age of the dogs demonstrated a violation of measurement invariance. That is, sex and age differences in aggressive behaviour could not be simply explained by differences in latent aggressiveness traits. The robustness and reproducibility of other personality traits in dogs could be verified by applying similar approaches to multivariate data. Secondly, dogs do not only differ in how they behave on average (i.e. personality), but in the amount they change their behaviour across time (behavioural plasticity) and the amount of day-to-day fluctuation around their average behaviour (predictability). By applying the framework of behavioural reaction norms, popular within behavioural and evolutionary ecology, we studied these different components of variation in dogs' reactions to meeting unfamiliar people over time at a shelter. Accounting for indi- vidual differences in intra-individual behaviour (i.e. plasticity and predictability) in addition to personality improved the predictive accuracy of our results compared to focusing on personality variation only. The results also highlighted the importance of gathering repeated measurements on individuals when estimating behavioural varia- tion. Specifically, behavioural predictions at the individual level were highly uncertain compared to those at the group-level (aggregating data across dogs), since the amount of data available on each dog individually was often small. Together, these results em- phasised the benefits of longitudinal assessments of dog behaviour in shelters, and the importance of systematic modelling of both inter-individual (i.e. personality) and intra-individual variation in dog behaviour. Thirdly, predominant approaches to conceptualising of animal personality traits are faced with a number of challenges. Inspired by recent work in human psychology, we elucidated how animal personality, and integrated behavioural phenotypes in general, can be re-conceptualised using a network perspective. The network perspective repre- sents the behavioural repertoire of individuals as a system of causally connected, au- tonomous behaviours. Behavioural dimensions or traits are, thus, viewed as emergent patterns of causally related clusters of behaviours, rather than separate underlying variables. We demonstrated the application of network analysis to survey data col- lected on behavioural and motivational characteristics of police patrol and detection dogs. Our analyses emphasised a number of close, functional relationships between variables consistent with previous research on dog personality, as well as unique in- sights from novel network statistics into the organisation of police dog behaviour. We highlighted the merits of this perspective for furthering work on the organisation of behavioural phenotypes and animal personality, and situating this research within work on a diverse range of complex systems across science. In summary, this thesis has drawn upon advancements across ethology and human psychology to present novel directions for understanding personality in dogs. The work will be of benefit to researchers determining which personality traits explain individual differences in dog behaviour and those aiming to predict future dog be- haviour. Lastly, the results should stimulate a greater awareness of the conceptual issues involved in making inferences about personality in dogs and other animals. ; Dyrs personlighet er definert som konsistente forskjeller i atferd mellom individer over tid eller på tvers av ulike sammenhenger, kontekster. Atferden er videre organisert i bredere atferdsdimensjoner som kalles personlighetstrekk (for eksempel fryktsomhet, aggressivitet eller dristighet). Selv om dyrs personlighet er et relativt nytt felt, har forskere vært interessert i å kvantifisere og forutsi stabile atferdsegenskaper eller at- ferdsdimensjoner hos hunder (Canis lupus familiaris) i over femti år. Likevel, å avgjøre hvilke personlighetstrekk som er mest relevante eller hvilke egenskaper en atferd re- flekterer, er fortsatt en vanskelig oppgave for personlighetsforskere på dyr (og mennesker). Stort sett skyldes dette at personlighet er noe vi analyserer utfra atferdsdata i stedet for å observere direkte, og noe som avhenger av den konseptuelle og metodol- ogiske tilnærmingen som er gjort. For spesielt hunder har personlighetsvurderinger ikke gitt konsekvente forutsigelser av hundens atferd, for eksempel i bedømmelser av atferd hos hunder i omplasseringsinstitusjoner (hjelpesentre). Videre har det vært foreslått varierende antall atferdstrekk og atferdsdimensjoner, med liten konsensus på tvers av studier angående hvilke trekk som er mest relevante for å beskrive hundens atferd. Denne doktoravhandlingen evaluerte konseptuelle og metodiske aspekter i forbindelse med vurdering av personlighet og personlighetstrekk hos hunder. Artiklene behandlet viktige aspekter ved den statistiske analysen av atferdsdata fra hunder for å beskrive personlighet og personlighetstrekk, og de benytter perspektiver på tvers av etologi og humanpsykologi. Artiklene viser tre brede resultater. For det første, forskning for å forstå hvilke personlighetstrekk som ligger til grunn for hundens atferd vil ha nytte av å endres fra et hovedsakelig undersøkelsesbasert til et hypotesebasert utgangspunkt. Personlighetstrekk hos hunder er vanligvis ut- ledet ved å bruke statistiske modeller med utforskende latente variable, for eksem- pel prinsipalkomponentanalyse, og studier har benyttet en blanding av modeller med latente variabler som har ulike underliggende forutsetninger. Bekreftende, reflek- terende modeller med latente variabler gir et kraftigere rammeverk for å teste konkur- rerende hypoteser om den latente strukturen av atferdsdata hos hunder, og slike mod- eller kan verifisere robustheten av de utledede personlighetstrekkene. Ved å bruke data om aggressiv atferd i ulike sammenhenger rettet mot mennesker og hunder i omplasseringsinstitusjoner, fant vi to korrelerte latente variabler: aggressivitet mot henholdsvis mennesker og hunder. Disse egenskapene forklarte imidlertid ikke all samvariasjon mellom aggressiv atferd på tvers av sammenhenger, noe som er i strid med antagelsen om lokal uavhengighet. Videre viste interaksjoner mellom aggresjon- skontekster og kjønn og alder hos hundene et brudd på prinsippet om måleinvari- asjon. Det vil si at forskjeller i aggressiv atferd med hensyn på kjønn og alder ikke kunne forklares bare av forskjeller i latente aggressivitetstrekk. Robustheten og repro- duserbarheten av andre personlighetstrekk hos hunder kunne bekreftes ved å anvende liknende tilnærminger til multivariate data. For det andre varierer hundene ikke bare i hvordan de oppfører seg i gjennomsnitt (dvs. personligheten), men i hvor mye de endrer sin atferd over tid (atferdsplas- tisitet) og i hvor store svingninger det er fra dag til dag i forhold til den gjennomsnit- tlige atferden (forutsigbarhet). Ved å ta utgangspunkt i atferdsreaksjonsnormer, som er populært innen atferdsøkologi og evolusjonær økologi, studerte vi disse forskjel- lige variasjonskomponentene i hunders reaksjoner når de møter ukjente mennesker over tid i et omplasseringssenter. Ved å ta hensyn til individuelle forskjeller i intra- individuell atferd (dvs. plastisitet og forutsigbarhet) i tillegg til personlighet, kunne vi forbedre nøyaktigheten i forutsigelsene av resultatene våre sammenliknet med når vi fokuserer kun på personlighetsvariasjon. Resultatene fremhevet også betydningen av å foreta gjentatte målinger på enkeltindivider ved estimering av atferdsvariasjon. Spesielt var atferdsprediksjoner på individnivå svært usikre sammenliknet med dem på gruppenivå (samlet for alle hundene), siden datamengden som var tilgjengelig for hver hund ofte var for liten. Sammen understreket disse resultatene fordelene ved langsgående vurderinger av hundens atferd i omplasseringsinstitusjonene, og betyd- ningen av systematisk modellering av variasjoner i hundens atferd både innen indi- videt (dvs. personlighet) og mellom individer. For det tredje møter de mest vanlige tilnærmingene til konseptualisering av dyrs per- sonlighetstrekk en rekke utfordringer. Inspirert av nylige arbeider innen humanpsykologi belyste vi hvordan dyrs personlighet, og integrerte atferdsfenotyper generelt, kan kon- septualiseres på nytt ved hjelp av et nettverksperspektiv. Nettverksperspektivet består i å analysere individets atferdsrepertoar som et system med kausalt forbundne, au- tonome atferder. Atferdsdimensjoner eller atferdstrekk betraktes således som frem- voksende mønstre av kausalt relaterte atferdsklynger, i stedet for separate under- liggende variabler. Vi demonstrerte anvendelsen av nettverksanalyse for å undersøke data fra skjemaer for atferdstrekk og motivasjonstrekk hos politiets patrulje- og søk- shunder. Våre analyser understreket en rekke tette, funksjonelle relasjoner mellom variabler som er i tråd med tidligere undersøkelser av hunders personlighet, samt unik innsikt ervervet fra ny nettverksstatistikk om hvordan politihunders atferd er organisert. Vi fremhevet fordelene ved dette perspektivet for å fremme arbeid med organisering av atferdsfenotyper og dyrs personlighet, og plassere denne forskningen innen arbeid på et mangfold av ulike komplekse systemer på tvers av vitenskaper. For å summere opp, denne avhandlingen har dratt nytte av fremskritt innen etologi og humanpsykologi for å presentere nye retninger for å forstå personlighet hos hunder. Arbeidet vil være til nytte for forskere som vil avklare hvilke personlighetstrekk som forklarer individuelle forskjeller i hunders atferd og for de som har som mål å forutsi fremtidig atferd hos hunder. Til slutt bør resultatene stimulere til en større bevissthet om de konseptuelle problemene som er involvert når en skal lage utledninger om personlighet hos hunder og andre dyr.
Supplementary information accompanies this paper at http://www.nature.com/srep ; In recent years, genome-wide association studies have identified 58 independent risk loci for coronary artery disease (CAD) on the autosome. However, due to the sex-specific data structure of the X chromosome, it has been excluded from most of these analyses. While females have 2 copies of chromosome X, males have only one. Also, one of the female X chromosomes may be inactivated. Therefore, special test statistics and quality control procedures are required. Thus, little is known about the role of X-chromosomal variants in CAD. To fill this gap, we conducted a comprehensive X-chromosome-wide meta-analysis including more than 43,000 CAD cases and 58,000 controls from 35 international study cohorts. For quality control, sex-specific filters were used to adequately take the special structure of X-chromosomal data into account. For single study analyses, several logistic regression models were calculated allowing for inactivation of one female X-chromosome, adjusting for sex and investigating interactions between sex and genetic variants. Then, meta-analyses including all 35 studies were conducted using random effects models. None of the investigated models revealed genome-wide significant associations for any variant. Although we analyzed the largest-to-date sample, currently available methods were not able to detect any associations of X-chromosomal variants with CAD. ; This work was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) within the framework of the e:Med research and funding concept (grant 01ZX1313A-2014). The ADVANCE study was supported by a grant from the Reynold's Foundation and NHLBI grant HL087647. Sample collection in the Cardiogenics Consortium (http://www.cardiogenics.eu/web/) was funded by the 6th Framework Program of the European Union (LSHM-CT-2006-037593). We thank all the participants and clinicians involved in the recruitment process at Cambridge and Leicester (UK), Luebeck and Regensburg (Germany), and Paris (France). CATHGEN was supported by NIH grants HL095987 and HL101621. The Cleveland Clinic Gene Bank study was funded by P01HL076491 (to S.L.H). EGCUT was supported by Estonian Research Council grant no. IUT20-60 and Research Roadmap grant no. 3.2.0304.11-0312 and by University Tartu grant no. ARENG SP1GV. The FGENTCARD-Functional Genomic diagnostic tools for coronary artery disease project was funded by an EU FP6 award. We thank the patients for agreeing to participate in the study. We thank Sonia Youhanna, Nour Moukalled and Bariaa Khalil for their help with subject recruitment and data collection. The work of FINCAVAS was supported by the Competitive Research Funding of the Tampere University Hospital (Grant 9M048 and 9N035), the Finnish Cultural Foundation, the Finnish Foundation for Cardiovascular Research, the Emil Aaltonen Foundation, Finland, and the Tampere Tuberculosis Foundation. The authors thank the staff of the Department of Clinical Physiology for collecting the exercise test data. The GerMIFS studies were supported by grants from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) within the framework of NGFN and NGFN-plus (Atherogenomics) and e:Med research and funding concept (e:AtheroSysMed, grant 01ZX1313A-2014), the Fondation Leducq (CADgenomics: Understanding CAD Genes, 12CVD02), and the European Union Sixth Framework Programme FP6 (under grant agreement FP6-LIFESCIHEALTH (Cardiogenics)) and the Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement n° HEALTH-F2-2013-601456 (CVgenes-at-target). The Heart Protection Study (HPS) (ISRCTN48489393) was supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC), British Heart Foundation, Merck and Co (manufacturers of simvastatin), and Roche Vitamins Ltd (manufacturers of vitamins). Genotyping was supported by a grant to Oxford University and CNG from Merck and Co. Jemma C. Hopewell acknowledges support from the British Heart Foundation (FS/14/55/30806). HPS acknowledges the National Blood Service (NBS) donors and UK Twin study for using as population controls. A full list of the investigators who contributed to the generation of the NBS data is available from www.wtccc.org.uk. Funding for the project was provided by the Wellcome Trust under award 07611. The UK Twin study was funded by the Wellcome Trust; European Community"s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013). The Helsinki Sudden Death Study (HSDS) was financially supported by EU's 7th Framework Programme (grant no. 201668 for AtheroRemo), the Tampere University Foundation, the Tampere University Hospital Medical Funds (grants X51001, 9M048 and 9N035 for Terho Lehtimäki, the Emil Aaltonen Foundation (Terho Lehtimäki, the Finnish Foundation of Cardiovascular Research (Terho Lehtimäki, Pekka J. Karhunen), the Pirkanmaa Regional Fund of the Finnish Cultural Foundation, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, and the Tampere Tuberculosis Foundation (Terho Lehtimäki). LIFE-Heart is a part of the LIFE – Leipzig Research Center for Civilization Diseases, Universität Leipzig. LIFE is funded by means of the European Union, by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and by means of the Free State of Saxony within the framework of the excellence initiative. The LOLIPOP study is supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, the British Heart Foundation (SP/04/002), the Medical Research Council (G0601966, G0700931), the Wellcome Trust (084723/Z/08/Z), the NIHR (RP-PG-0407-10371), European Union FP7 (EpiMigrant, 279143) and Action on Hearing (G51). We thank the participants and research staff who made the study possible. LURIC was supported by the 7th Framework Program (integrated project AtheroRemo, grant agreement number 201668 and RiskyCAD, grant agreement number 305739) of the European Union and by the INTERREG IV Oberrhein Program (Project A28, Genetic mechanisms of cardiovascular diseases) with support from the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the Wissenschaftsoffensive TMO. We extend our appreciation to the participants of the LURIC study and thank the LURIC study team who were either temporarily or permanently involved in patient recruitment as well as sample and data handling, in addition to the laboratory staff at the Ludwigshafen General Hospital and the Universities of Freiburg and Ulm, Germany. The MIGen study was funded by R01HL087676 from the US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. The Mount Sinai IPM Biobank Program is supported by The Andrea and Charles Bronfman Philanthropies. It was in part supported by NHGRI U01HG007417. OHGS_A2, OHGS_B2, and OHGS_C2 were funded by Canadian Institutes of Health Research (# MOP-2380941 to R.M.), (#MOP82810, MOP77682 to R.R., A.F.S. & R.M.); Canada Foundation for Innovation (#11966 to R.R., R.M. & A.F.S.; Heart & Stroke Foundation of Canada (#NA6001, #NA6650 to R.M). PIVUS was supported by Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation (Wallenberg Academy Fellow), European Research Council (ERC Starting Grant), Swedish Diabetes Foundation (grant no. 2013-024), Swedish Research Council (grant no. 2012-1397), and Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation (20120197). We thank the SNP&SEQ Technology Platform in Uppsala (www.genotyping.se) for excellent genotyping. The computations were performed on resources provided by SNIC through Uppsala Multidisciplinary Center for Advanced Computational Science (UPPMAX) under Project b2011036. PROCARDIS was supported by the European Community Sixth Framework Program (LSHM-CT- 2007-037273), AstraZeneca, the British Heart Foundation, the Swedish Research Council, the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, the Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation, the Torsten and Ragnar Söderberg Foundation, the Strategic Cardiovascular Program of Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm County Council, the Foundation for Strategic Research and the Stockholm County Council (560283). Research in SDS was partly supported by NIH grants -R01DK082766 funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and NOT-HG-11-009 funded by National Genome Research Institute, and VPR Bridge grant from University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, Oklahoma City, USA. Recruitment for THISEAS was partially funded by a research grant (PENED 2003) from the Greek General Secretary of Research and Technology; we thank all the dieticians and clinicians for their contribution to the project. TwinGene was supported by grants from the Ministry for Higher Education, the Swedish Research Council (M-2005-1112 and 2009-2298), GenomEUtwin (EU/QLRT-2001-01254; QLG2-CT-2002-01254), NIH grant DK U01-066134, Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation (Wallenberg Academy Fellow), European Research Council (ERC Starting Grant), Swedish Diabetes Foundation (grant no. 2013-024), Swedish Research Council (grant no. 2012-1397), and Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation (20120197). We thank the SNP&SEQ Technology Platform in Uppsala (www.genotyping.se) for excellent genotyping. The computations were performed on resources provided by SNIC through Uppsala Multidisciplinary Center for Advanced Computational Science (UPPMAX) under Project b2011036. ULSAM was supported by Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation (Wallenberg Academy Fellow), European Research Council (ERC Starting Grant), Swedish Diabetes Foundation (grant no. 2013-024), Swedish Research Council (grant no. 2012-1397), and Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation (20120197). We thank the SNP&SEQ Technology Platform in Uppsala (www.genotyping.se) for excellent genotyping. The computations were performed on resources provided by SNIC through Uppsala Multidisciplinary Center for Advanced Computational Science (UPPMAX) under Project b2011036. Recruitment for the WTCCC study was funded by the British Heart Foundation and genotyping by the Wellcome Trust. Themistocles L. Assimes was supported by an NIDDK career development award DK088942. Panos Deloukas's work forms part of the research themes contributing to the translational research portfolio of Barts Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Unit which is supported and funded by the National Institute for Health Research. Analysis was partly supported by BHF grant (to Panos Deloukas) RG/14/5/30893. Martin Farrall and Hugh Watkins acknowledge the support of the Wellcome Trust core award (090532/Z/09/Z) and Martin Farrall, Hugh Watkins and Theodosios Kyriakou, the BHF Centre of Research Excellence. Anuj Goel, Hugh Watkins and Theodosios Kyriakou acknowledge European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. HEALTH-F2-2013-601456 (CVGenes@Target) & and Anuj Goel, the Wellcome Trust Institutional strategic support fund. The UK Twin study was funded by the Wellcome Trust; European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013). PoBI samples from the Wellcome Trust funded People of the British Isles project. Sekar Kathiresan is supported by the Donovan Family Foundation, Fondation Leducq, MGH Research Scholar Award, and R01 HL107816. Andrew P. Morris is a Wellcome Trust Senior Fellow in Basic Biomedical Science, funded under grant WT098017. Christopher P. Nelson and Nilesh J. Samani are funded by the British Heart Foundation and Nilesh J. Samani is a UK NIUHR Senior Investigator. Christopher P. Nelson and Nilesh J. Samani are funded by the British Heart Foundation and Nilesh J. Samani is a UK NIUHR Senior Investigator. Samuli Ripatti was supported by the Academy of Finland Center of Excellence in Complex Disease Genetics (Grant No. 213506 and 129680), Academy of Finland (Grant No. 251217 and 285380), the Finnish foundation for Cardiovascular Research, the Sigrid Juselius Foundation and the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) through the BioSHaRE-EU (Biobank Standardisation and Harmonisation for Research Excellence in the European Union) project, grant agreement 261433. Alexandre F. R. Stewart is supported by operating grants from the Canadian Institute of Health Research and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. Hong-Hee Won is supported by a postdoctoral award from the American Heart Association (15POST23280019). ; Peer-reviewed ; Publisher Version
Temporary or permanent, local or international, voluntary or forced, legal or illegal, registered or unregistered migrations of individuals, whole communities or individual groups are an important factor in constructing and modifying (modern) societies. The extent of international migrations is truly immense. At the time of the preparation of this publication more than 200 million people have been involved in migrations in a single year according to the United Nations. Furthermore, three times more wish to migrate, mostly from sub-Saharan Africa towards some of the most economically developed areas of the world according to the estimates by the Gallup Institute (Esipova, 2011). Some authors, although aware that it is not a new phenomenon, talk about the era of migration (Castles, Miller, 2009) or the globalization of migration (Friedman, 2004). The global dimensions of migration are definitely influenced also by the increasingly visible features of modern societies like constantly changing conditions, instability, fluidity, uncertainty etc. (Beck, 2009; Bauman, 2002).The extent, direction, type of migrations and their consequences are affected by many social and natural factors in the areas of emigration and immigration. In addition, researchers from many scientific disciplines who study migrations have raised a wide range of research questions (Boyle, 2009, 96), use a variety of methodological approaches and look for different interpretations in various spatial, temporal and contextual frameworks. The migrations are a complex, multi-layered, variable, contextual process that takes place at several levels. Because of this, research on migrations has become an increasingly interdisciplinary field, since the topics and problems are so complex that they cannot be grasped solely and exclusively from the perspective of a single discipline or theory. Therefore, we are witnessing a profusion of different "faces of migration", which is reflected and at the same time also contributed to by this thematic issue of the journal Ars & Humanitas.While mobility or migration are not new phenomena, as people have moved and migrated throughout the history of mankind, only recently, in the last few decades, has theoretical and research focus on them intensified considerably. In the last two decades a number of research projects, university programs and courses, research institutes, scientific conferences, seminars, magazines, books and other publications, involving research, academia as well as politics and various civil society organizations have emerged. This shows the recent exceptional interest in the issue of migration, both in terms of knowledge of the processes involved, their mapping in the history of mankind, as well as the theoretical development of migration studies and daily management of this politically sensitive issue.Migration affects many entities on many different levels: the individuals, their families and entire communities at the local level in the emigrant societies as well as in the receiving societies. The migration is changing not only the lives of individuals but whole communities and societies, as well as social relations; it is also shifting the cultural patterns and bringing important social transformations (Castles 2010). This of course raises a number of questions, problems and issues ranging from human rights violations to literary achievements. Some of these are addressed by the authors in this thematic issue.The title "Many faces of migration", connecting contributions in this special issue, is borrowed from the already mentioned Gallup Institute's report on global migration (Esipova, 2011). The guiding principle in the selection of the contributions has been their diversity, reflected also in the list of disciplines represented by the authors: sociology, geography, ethnology and cultural anthropology, history, art history, modern Mediterranean studies, gender studies and media studies. Such an approach necessarily leads not only to a diverse, but at least seemingly also incompatible, perhaps even opposing views "on a given topic. However, we did not want to silence the voices of "other" disciplines, but within the reviewing procedures actually invited scientists from the fields represented by the contributors to this volume. The wealth of the selected contributions lies therefore not only in their coherence and complementarity, but also in the diversity of views, stories and interpretations.The paper of Zora Žbontar deals with the attitudes towards foreigners in ancient Greece, where the hospitality to strangers was considered so worthy a virtue that everyone was expected to "demonstrate hospitality and protection to any foreigner who has knocked on their door". The contrast between the hospitality of ancient Greece and the modern emergence of xenophobia and ways of dealing with migration issues in economically developed countries is especially challenging. "In an open gesture of hospitality to strangers the ancient Greeks showed their civilization".Although the aforementioned research by the United Nations and Gallup Institute support some traditional stereotypes of the main global flows of migrants, and the areas about which the potential migrants "dream", Bojan Baskar stresses the coexistence of different migratory desires, migration flows and their interpretations. In his paper he specifically focuses on overcoming and relativising stereotypes as well as theories of immobile and non-enterprising (Alpine) mountain populations and migrations.The different strategies of the crossing borders adopted by migrant women are studied by Mirjana Morokvasic. She marks them as true social innovators, inventing different ways of transnational life resulting in a bottom-up contribution to the integrative processes across Europe. Some of their innovations go as far as to shift diverse real and symbolic boundaries of belonging to a nation, gender, profession.Elaine Burroughs and Zoë O'Reilly highlight the close relations between the otherwise well-established terminology used in statistics and science to label immigrants in Ireland and elsewhere in EU, and the negative representations of certain types of migrants in politics and the public. The discussion focusses particularly on asylum seekers and illegal immigrants who come from outside the EU. The use of language can quickly become a political means of exclusion, therefore the authors propose the development and use of more considerate and balanced migration terminology.Damir Josipovič proposes a change of the focal point for identifying and interpreting the well-studied migrations in the former Yugoslavia. The author suggests changing the dualistic view of these migrations to an integrated, holistic view. Instead of a simplified understanding of these migrations as either international or domestic, voluntary or forced, he proposes a concept of pseudo-voluntary migrations.Maja Korać-Sanderson's contribution highlights an interesting phenomenon in the shift in the traditional patterns of gender roles. The conclusions are derived from the study of the family life of Chinese traders in transitional Serbia. While many studies suggest that child care in recent decades in immigrant societies is generally performed by immigrants, her study reveals that in Serbia, the Chinese merchants entrust the care of their children mostly to local middle class women. The author finds this switch of roles in the "division of labour" in the child care favourable for both parties involved.Francesco Della Puppa focuses on a specific part of the mosaic of contemporary migrations in the Mediterranean: the Bangladeshi immigrant community in the highly industrialized North East of Italy. The results of his in-depth qualitative study reveal the factors that shape this segment of the Bangladeshi diaspora, the experiences of migrants and the effects of migration on their social and biographical trajectories.John A. Schembri and Maria Attard present a snippet of a more typical Mediterranean migration process - immigration to Malta. The authors highlight the reduction in migration between Malta and the United Kingdom, while there is an increase in immigration to Malta from the rest of Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. Amongst the various impacts of immigration to Malta the extraordinary concentration of immigrant populations is emphasized, since the population density of Malta far exceeds that of nearly all other European countries.Miha Kozorog studies the link between migration and constructing their places of their origin. On the basis of Ardener's theory the author expresses "remoteness" of the emigratory Slavia Friulana in terms of topology, in relation to other places, rather than in topography. "Remoteness" is formed in relation to the "outside world", to those who speak of "remote areas" from the privileged centres. The example of an artistic event, which organizers aim "to open a place like this to the outside world", "to encourage the production of more cosmopolitan place", shows only the temporary effect of such event on the reduction of the "remoteness".Jani Kozina presents a study of the basic temporal and spatial characteristics of migration "of people in creative occupations" in Slovenia. The definition of this specific segment of the population and approach to study its migrations are principally based on the work of Richard Florida. The author observes that people with creative occupations in Slovenia are very immobile and in this respect quite similar to other professional groups in Slovenia, but also to the people in creative professions in the Southern and Eastern Europe, which are considered to be among the least mobile in Europe. Detailed analyses show that the people in creative occupations from the more developed regions generally migrate more intensely and are also more willing to relocate.Mojca Pajnik and Veronika Bajt study the experiences of migrant women with the access to the labour market in Slovenia. Existing laws and policies push the migrants into a position where, if they want to get to work, have to accept less demanding work. In doing so, the migrant women are targets of stereotyped reactions and practices of discrimination on the basis of sex, age, attributed ethnic and religious affiliation, or some other circumstances, particularly the fact of being migrants. At the same time the latter results in the absence of any protection from the state.Migration studies often assume that the target countries are "modern" and countries of origin "traditional". Anıl Al- Rebholz argues that such a dichotomous conceptualization of modern and traditional further promotes stereotypical, essentialist and homogenizing images of Muslim women in the "western world". On the basis of biographical narratives of young Kurdish and Moroccan women as well as the relationships between mothers and daughters, the author illustrates a variety of strategies of empowerment of young women in the context of transnational migration.A specific face of migration is highlighted in the text of Svenka Savić, namely the face of artistic migration between Slovenia and Serbia after the Second World War. The author explains how more than thirty artists from Slovenia, with their pioneering work in three ensembles (opera, ballet and theatre), significantly contributed to the development of the performing arts in the Serbian National Theatre in Novi Sad.We believe that in the present thematic issue we have succeeded in capturing an important part of the modern European research dynamic in the field of migration. In addition to well-known scholars in this field several young authors at the beginning their research careers have been shortlisted for the publication. We are glad of their success as it bodes a vibrancy of this research area in the future. At the same time, we were pleased to receive responses to the invitation from representatives of so many disciplines, and that the number of papers received significantly exceeded the maximum volume of the journal. Recognising and understanding of the many faces of migration are important steps towards the comprehensive knowledge needed to successfully meet the challenges of migration issues today and even more so in the future. It is therefore of utmost importance that researchers find ways of transferring their academic knowledge into practice – to all levels of education, the media, the wider public and, of course, the decision makers in local, national and international institutions. The call also applies to all authors in this issue of the journal.
Temporary or permanent, local or international, voluntary or forced, legal or illegal, registered or unregistered migrations of individuals, whole communities or individual groups are an important factor in constructing and modifying (modern) societies. The extent of international migrations is truly immense. At the time of the preparation of this publication more than 200 million people have been involved in migrations in a single year according to the United Nations. Furthermore, three times more wish to migrate, mostly from sub-Saharan Africa towards some of the most economically developed areas of the world according to the estimates by the Gallup Institute (Esipova, 2011). Some authors, although aware that it is not a new phenomenon, talk about the era of migration (Castles, Miller, 2009) or the globalization of migration (Friedman, 2004). The global dimensions of migration are definitely influenced also by the increasingly visible features of modern societies like constantly changing conditions, instability, fluidity, uncertainty etc. (Beck, 2009; Bauman, 2002).The extent, direction, type of migrations and their consequences are affected by many social and natural factors in the areas of emigration and immigration. In addition, researchers from many scientific disciplines who study migrations have raised a wide range of research questions (Boyle, 2009, 96), use a variety of methodological approaches and look for different interpretations in various spatial, temporal and contextual frameworks. The migrations are a complex, multi-layered, variable, contextual process that takes place at several levels. Because of this, research on migrations has become an increasingly interdisciplinary field, since the topics and problems are so complex that they cannot be grasped solely and exclusively from the perspective of a single discipline or theory. Therefore, we are witnessing a profusion of different "faces of migration", which is reflected and at the same time also contributed to by this thematic issue of the journal Ars & Humanitas.While mobility or migration are not new phenomena, as people have moved and migrated throughout the history of mankind, only recently, in the last few decades, has theoretical and research focus on them intensified considerably. In the last two decades a number of research projects, university programs and courses, research institutes, scientific conferences, seminars, magazines, books and other publications, involving research, academia as well as politics and various civil society organizations have emerged. This shows the recent exceptional interest in the issue of migration, both in terms of knowledge of the processes involved, their mapping in the history of mankind, as well as the theoretical development of migration studies and daily management of this politically sensitive issue.Migration affects many entities on many different levels: the individuals, their families and entire communities at the local level in the emigrant societies as well as in the receiving societies. The migration is changing not only the lives of individuals but whole communities and societies, as well as social relations; it is also shifting the cultural patterns and bringing important social transformations (Castles 2010). This of course raises a number of questions, problems and issues ranging from human rights violations to literary achievements. Some of these are addressed by the authors in this thematic issue.The title "Many faces of migration", connecting contributions in this special issue, is borrowed from the already mentioned Gallup Institute's report on global migration (Esipova, 2011). The guiding principle in the selection of the contributions has been their diversity, reflected also in the list of disciplines represented by the authors: sociology, geography, ethnology and cultural anthropology, history, art history, modern Mediterranean studies, gender studies and media studies. Such an approach necessarily leads not only to a diverse, but at least seemingly also incompatible, perhaps even opposing views "on a given topic. However, we did not want to silence the voices of "other" disciplines, but within the reviewing procedures actually invited scientists from the fields represented by the contributors to this volume. The wealth of the selected contributions lies therefore not only in their coherence and complementarity, but also in the diversity of views, stories and interpretations.The paper of Zora Žbontar deals with the attitudes towards foreigners in ancient Greece, where the hospitality to strangers was considered so worthy a virtue that everyone was expected to "demonstrate hospitality and protection to any foreigner who has knocked on their door". The contrast between the hospitality of ancient Greece and the modern emergence of xenophobia and ways of dealing with migration issues in economically developed countries is especially challenging. "In an open gesture of hospitality to strangers the ancient Greeks showed their civilization".Although the aforementioned research by the United Nations and Gallup Institute support some traditional stereotypes of the main global flows of migrants, and the areas about which the potential migrants "dream", Bojan Baskar stresses the coexistence of different migratory desires, migration flows and their interpretations. In his paper he specifically focuses on overcoming and relativising stereotypes as well as theories of immobile and non-enterprising (Alpine) mountain populations and migrations.The different strategies of the crossing borders adopted by migrant women are studied by Mirjana Morokvasic. She marks them as true social innovators, inventing different ways of transnational life resulting in a bottom-up contribution to the integrative processes across Europe. Some of their innovations go as far as to shift diverse real and symbolic boundaries of belonging to a nation, gender, profession.Elaine Burroughs and Zoë O'Reilly highlight the close relations between the otherwise well-established terminology used in statistics and science to label immigrants in Ireland and elsewhere in EU, and the negative representations of certain types of migrants in politics and the public. The discussion focusses particularly on asylum seekers and illegal immigrants who come from outside the EU. The use of language can quickly become a political means of exclusion, therefore the authors propose the development and use of more considerate and balanced migration terminology.Damir Josipovič proposes a change of the focal point for identifying and interpreting the well-studied migrations in the former Yugoslavia. The author suggests changing the dualistic view of these migrations to an integrated, holistic view. Instead of a simplified understanding of these migrations as either international or domestic, voluntary or forced, he proposes a concept of pseudo-voluntary migrations.Maja Korać-Sanderson's contribution highlights an interesting phenomenon in the shift in the traditional patterns of gender roles. The conclusions are derived from the study of the family life of Chinese traders in transitional Serbia. While many studies suggest that child care in recent decades in immigrant societies is generally performed by immigrants, her study reveals that in Serbia, the Chinese merchants entrust the care of their children mostly to local middle class women. The author finds this switch of roles in the "division of labour" in the child care favourable for both parties involved.Francesco Della Puppa focuses on a specific part of the mosaic of contemporary migrations in the Mediterranean: the Bangladeshi immigrant community in the highly industrialized North East of Italy. The results of his in-depth qualitative study reveal the factors that shape this segment of the Bangladeshi diaspora, the experiences of migrants and the effects of migration on their social and biographical trajectories.John A. Schembri and Maria Attard present a snippet of a more typical Mediterranean migration process - immigration to Malta. The authors highlight the reduction in migration between Malta and the United Kingdom, while there is an increase in immigration to Malta from the rest of Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. Amongst the various impacts of immigration to Malta the extraordinary concentration of immigrant populations is emphasized, since the population density of Malta far exceeds that of nearly all other European countries.Miha Kozorog studies the link between migration and constructing their places of their origin. On the basis of Ardener's theory the author expresses "remoteness" of the emigratory Slavia Friulana in terms of topology, in relation to other places, rather than in topography. "Remoteness" is formed in relation to the "outside world", to those who speak of "remote areas" from the privileged centres. The example of an artistic event, which organizers aim "to open a place like this to the outside world", "to encourage the production of more cosmopolitan place", shows only the temporary effect of such event on the reduction of the "remoteness".Jani Kozina presents a study of the basic temporal and spatial characteristics of migration "of people in creative occupations" in Slovenia. The definition of this specific segment of the population and approach to study its migrations are principally based on the work of Richard Florida. The author observes that people with creative occupations in Slovenia are very immobile and in this respect quite similar to other professional groups in Slovenia, but also to the people in creative professions in the Southern and Eastern Europe, which are considered to be among the least mobile in Europe. Detailed analyses show that the people in creative occupations from the more developed regions generally migrate more intensely and are also more willing to relocate.Mojca Pajnik and Veronika Bajt study the experiences of migrant women with the access to the labour market in Slovenia. Existing laws and policies push the migrants into a position where, if they want to get to work, have to accept less demanding work. In doing so, the migrant women are targets of stereotyped reactions and practices of discrimination on the basis of sex, age, attributed ethnic and religious affiliation, or some other circumstances, particularly the fact of being migrants. At the same time the latter results in the absence of any protection from the state.Migration studies often assume that the target countries are "modern" and countries of origin "traditional". Anıl Al- Rebholz argues that such a dichotomous conceptualization of modern and traditional further promotes stereotypical, essentialist and homogenizing images of Muslim women in the "western world". On the basis of biographical narratives of young Kurdish and Moroccan women as well as the relationships between mothers and daughters, the author illustrates a variety of strategies of empowerment of young women in the context of transnational migration.A specific face of migration is highlighted in the text of Svenka Savić, namely the face of artistic migration between Slovenia and Serbia after the Second World War. The author explains how more than thirty artists from Slovenia, with their pioneering work in three ensembles (opera, ballet and theatre), significantly contributed to the development of the performing arts in the Serbian National Theatre in Novi Sad.We believe that in the present thematic issue we have succeeded in capturing an important part of the modern European research dynamic in the field of migration. In addition to well-known scholars in this field several young authors at the beginning their research careers have been shortlisted for the publication. We are glad of their success as it bodes a vibrancy of this research area in the future. At the same time, we were pleased to receive responses to the invitation from representatives of so many disciplines, and that the number of papers received significantly exceeded the maximum volume of the journal. Recognising and understanding of the many faces of migration are important steps towards the comprehensive knowledge needed to successfully meet the challenges of migration issues today and even more so in the future. It is therefore of utmost importance that researchers find ways of transferring their academic knowledge into practice – to all levels of education, the media, the wider public and, of course, the decision makers in local, national and international institutions. The call also applies to all authors in this issue of the journal.
