Suchergebnisse

The influential valence model of voting developed over the last decade by the British Election Study (BES) team assumes that party and leadership performance evaluations have a causal impact on party choice. An alternative perspective argues that such performance evaluations are instead the consequences of party choice. This article examines the analytical and empirical underpinnings of the BES valence model and compares it to the party-driven approach. To do so, it estimates cross-lagged structural equation models of the association between Labour Party preference and evaluations of the Labour government's performance during the 2005–10 British electoral cycle. It shows that party preference has a stronger effect on performance evaluations than vice versa; performance evaluations have no significant effect on party preference toward the end of the electoral cycle. The study also finds that, contrary to claims made concerning their merits as simplifying heuristics, performance assessments have no impact on short-term movements in party choice for less politically attentive voters. To a substantial degree, evaluations of party performance express—rather than explain—party choice, and would appear to have limited merit as simplifying heuristics.

Considerable evidence has been generated to establish that "ideological congruence," that is, a close matching of government policy positions with median left‐right voter opinion, generally prevails in liberal democracies. Based on a cross‐national analysis of election survey data, this article challenges that view and elaborates an alternative perspective. In this perspective, nonpolicy or valence considerations strongly influence vote choices and electoral outcomes in a directional sense—sometimes favoring the Left overall, sometimes the Right. Partly as a result, government positions typically deviate substantially from median opinion, forming a pattern that is clearly bilateralist or two‐sided rather than center‐concentrated.

ABSTRACTThis paper reports an extension of valence‐instrumentality‐expectancy (VIE) type models of organizational choice to the decision process of high school students selecting undergraduate colleges. Using questionnaire data from 714 respondents, interactive vatence‐instrumentality models correctly predicted 68% of actual choices. A number of alternative models are evaluated, and several areas for refinement and extension of this study are identified.

Regulatory focus theory is a messaging tool employed to influence consumer behaviour to achieve certain pre-defined goals. Although much research has been dedicated to determine its effectiveness over the past two decades, findings have been inconclusive in determining which of two distinctive aspects of regulatory focus framing, promotion-focus and prevention-focus, is most effective in evoking a favourable response. Therefore, employing a regulatory-focus perspective, this research investigated message valence effects so as to compare supportive framing (promotion-focus) and combative framing (prevention-focus) by analysing (i) text data and (ii) empirical data collected during a series of experimental studies. The text data were obtained by conducting sentiment analyses of an international charity's historical campaigns, and the experimental studies, whose purpose was to understand the causality and distinct effects of regulatory focus framing, analysed message persuasiveness and donation behaviour. Another aim of this research was to investigate the distinct effects of the following three important under-researched variables with respect to regulatory focus framing valence: (i) affective states, (ii) gender, and (iii) political identity. Findings indicate that knowing donors' values of these variables is imperative in order to explain why and to what extent some donors' donation intentions are influenced by a campaign's message. Research's findings therefore extend those obtained in previous research, in which affective state was employed to mediate differential valence from a regulatory focus, and also demonstrate how gender and political identity may moderate these effects. Thus, study results provide a more in-depth understanding of how regulatory focus framing can be employed to be most effective, depending on an individual-difference mechanism, thereby influencing message persuasiveness and donation behaviour. Finally, this study will assist non-profit organisations and charities in enhancing the effectiveness of their charitable campaign appeals by allowing improved targeting of potential and current donors.

College students rated the character of a target person from mixed favorable and unfavorable information. One statement of opposite valence was inserted at the beginning, middle, or end of an otherwise univalent description. One rating was made at the time of stimulus presentation and
another a week later. Negative information was more influential than positive in 4 of the 6 final ratings. Position of the incompatible statement had no significant effect but there was a consistent trend in the direction of primacy for both predominantly-positive and predominantly-negative
descriptions.

Abstract
It is well-established that party identity biases the processing of political information and the evaluation of political actors. This is presumed to avoid cognitive dissonance and achieve positive affect. What happens, however, when individuals diverge from this pattern and do make identity-inconsistent evaluations of political actors – how does this translate into positive and negative emotions toward the candidates? The paper addresses this question using large-N data from the main televised debate of the 2017 German national election by combining survey responses with viewer perceptions measured during the debate. The findings suggest that candidate ratings made during the debate have different valence depending on a person's party identity. Strikingly, a stronger party identity does not mean a reduced impact of identity-inconsistent evaluations on emotional responses toward a candidate. Rather, only evaluations in accordance with one's party identity, and hence with lower information value, show a reduced effect on emotional responses.

National identifications, cues from political actors, and cost-benefit calculations have been pointed as the main determinants of secession preferences. However, a recent surge in independence support in Scotland suggests that abrupt political changes may also affect these preferences: Brexit and the differentiated management of the Covid-19 pandemic by the UK and the Scottish governments are named as causes of the first independence sustained majority registered by polling in Scotland. In this article, I discuss how voting shocks may affect the levels of support for independence, revise the evidence that sustains these claims, and analyse how they have changed the profile of the pro-independence voter. The effect of these questions has substantial implications for a possible second independence referendum in Scotland, as well as for the broader debate on the sources of secession support.

National identifications, cues from political actors, and cost-benefit calculations have been pointed as the main determinants of secession preferences. However, a recent surge in independence support in Scotland suggests that abrupt political changes may also affect these preferences: Brexit and the differentiated management of the Covid-19 pandemic by the UK and the Scottish governments are named as causes of the first independence sustained majority registered by polling in Scotland. In this article, I discuss how voting shocks may affect the levels of support for independence, revise the evidence that sustains these claims, and analyse how they have changed the profile of the pro-independence voter. The effect of these questions has substantial implications for a possible second independence referendum in Scotland, as well as for the broader debate on the sources of secession support.

Senegalese Immigrants, Islam and Confraternities in Valencia (Spain).
Joan Lacomba.
This article presents a portion of the results of a study on Muslim immigrants and their strategies of adaptation in a non-Muslim environment. Out of the groups of different nationalities studied, the Senegalese present the most original adaptive strategies. Aside from their particular interpretation of Islam, they have put into place organisational forms unlike those found in other groups of Muslims studied. They have brought to Spain the System of confraternities whose influence is very strong in their society of origin. In the new context, this organisation into confraternities has become a fundamental instrument in regulating the community and in the integration of Senegalese Muslim immigrants into the work environment.
Immigrantes senegaleses, islam y cofradias en Valencia (Espana).