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The adoption of the value-added tax has arguably been one of the most important tax policy measures worldwide, but is also one of the most heatedly debated. While some argue that the VAT has served as a useful tool to boost government revenue, others claim that it is also a regressive tax, contributing to increased inequality within the developing world. Using newly released high-quality macro data, this paper offers updated estimates of the revenue impacts of the VAT and the first estimates on its consequences on inequality at the macro level. The results from instrumental variable estimations reveal that the revenue consequences of the VAT have not been positive, contrasting results from earlier work. VAT adoption has not led to increased inequality, suggesting that the move to the VAT has not undermined equitable development.

This paper examines the impact of the introduction of the value-added tax on inequality and government revenues using newly released macro data. We present both conventional county fixed effect regressions and instrumental variable analyses, where VAT adoption is instrumented using the previous values of neighbouring countries VAT systems as an instrument. The results reveal – in contrast to earlier work – that the revenue consequences of the VAT have not been positive. The results indicate that income-based inequality has increased due to the VAT adoption, whereas consumption inequality has remained unaffected.

In this paper we examine the distributional effects of Value Added Tax (VAT) in Ireland. Using the 2004/2005 Household Budget Survey, we assess the amount of VAT that households pay as a proportion of weekly disposable income. We measure VAT payments by equivalised income decile, households of different composition and different household sizes. The current system is highly regressive. With the use of a micro-simulation model we also estimate the impact of changing the VAT rate on certain groups of items and the associated change in revenue. We also consider how the imposition of a flat rate across all goods and services would affect households in different categories. The Irish Government has recently announced that it proposes to increase the standard rate of VAT to 22% in 2013 and to 23% in 2014. We examine the distributional implications of such increases. The general pattern of results shows that those hardest hit are households in the first income decile, households in rural areas, 6 person households and households containing a single adult with children.