Suchergebnisse

The purpose of the paper is to identify determinants of the Polish non-finance companies' choices in respect of debt financing, with the monetary policy impact and the year effect taken into consideration. The study has been conducted using the system GMM method (robust), based on a research sample of corporate data of the years 1995-2012 (800 thousand observations). The correlation between profitability (self-financing) and debt financing is found to be negative in the group of large companies and the negative relationship between quick ratio and leverage observed regardless of the company size supports the pecking order theory. Furthermore, the analysis proves a very low influence of monetary policy on debt financing decisions of companies in Poland. The analysis showing how small and medium enterprises' payment gridlocks and small businesses' growth opportunities affect debt financing should help banks tailor their offer to the SME sector needs. The positive effect of the bankruptcy risk computed by means of a combination of traditional logistic regression with scoring methods on debt financing should influence bank loan committees' decisions when developing the creditworthiness assessment and loan application verification procedures. The value added here is the empirical proof of the statement that Poland's accession to EU and the access to EU grants reduced small enterprises' demand for external financing in the period 2004-2008, while the financial crisis in the EU states (2009-2010) triggered a decline in external financing.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/10.5755/j01.ss.87.1.12319

Slatvinska M.A. DEBT INSTRUMENTS OF FISCAL POLICY OF THE STATEPurpose. Conducting and reporting on the analysis of research results and evaluation of analytical materials, which confirm the practical feasibility of disclosing issues, determining the structure and mechanisms for applying debt instruments of fiscal policy in Ukraine and justifying ways to eliminate the identified deficiencies.Methodology of research. In the course of the study, general scientific and special methods were used, namely: comparative and statistical analysis, the analogy method, induction and deduction, analysis and synthesis for: timely detection of exogenous and endogenous threats; improving fiscal risk assessment; developing a system of preventive measures regarding the prediction and prevention of risks and crisis phenomena; the search for non-debt sources of repayment of public debt with a further assessment of the feasibility of attracting them; ensuring proper control over the full and timely use of debt in the framework of development projects; development of compensatory mechanisms for financing the economy in the event of a significant deterioration in the situation on foreign markets.Findings. The necessity of the transition from passive debt financing of the budget deficit to an active influence on the implementation of the strategic directions of development and modernization of the economy and its financial system has been proved. It was noted that this increases the importance of debt policy as a structural and functional component of the state fiscal policy. Developed proposals that will contribute to improving the management of public debt and reduce fiscal risks, will optimize the volume of public debt and its structure.Originality. The system of public debt management in the medium term has been substantiated, such as: obtaining full access to external sources of financing, reducing the cost of servicing the public debt and avoiding peak loads on the state budget related to payments on public debt.Practical value. The directions for eliminating the identified deficiencies and reducing the fiscal risks that can be used in the process of the formation and implementation of fiscal policy and directly its debt components are proposed.Key words: government policy, deficit, debt, loans, debt policy, debt instruments.

Standard optimal Debt Management (DM) models prescribe a dominant role for long bonds and advocate against issuing short bonds. They require very large positions in order to complete markets and assume each period that governments repurchase all outstanding bonds and reissue (r/r) new ones. These features of DM are inconsistent with U.S. data. We introduce incomplete markets via small transaction costs which serves to make optimal DM more closely resemble the data : r/r are negligible, short bond issuance substantial and persistent and short and long bonds positively co-vary. Intuitively, long bonds help smooth taxes over states and short bonds over time. Solving incomplete market models with multiple assets is challenging so a further contribution of this article is introducing a novel computational method to find global solutions.

Standard optimal Debt Management (DM) models prescribe a dominant role for long bonds and advocate against issuing short bonds. They require very large positions in order to complete markets and assume each period that governments repurchase all outstanding bonds and reissue (r/r) new ones. These features of DM are inconsistent with U.S. data. We introduce incomplete markets via small transaction costs which serves to make optimal DM more closely resemble the data : r/r are negligible, short bond issuance substantial and persistent and short and long bonds positively co-vary. Intuitively, long bonds help smooth taxes over states and short bonds over time. Solving incomplete market models with multiple assets is challenging so a further contribution of this article is introducing a novel computational method to find global solutions.

Trabajo presentado en el 8th Shanghai Macroeconomics Workshop, celebrado en Shanghai (China), del 17 al 19 de junio de 2017.--Trabajo presentado en el Government Debt: Constraints and Choices, organizado por la Universidad de Chicago durante los días 21 y 22 de abril de 2017.--This version: October 2018 (November 2014) ; Standard optimal Debt Management (DM) models prescribe a dominant role for long bonds and advocate against issuing short bonds. They require very large positions in order to complete markets and assume each period that governments repurchase all outstanding bonds and reissue ( r/r ) new ones. These features of DM are inconsistent with US data. We introduce incomplete markets via small transaction costs which serves to make optimal DM more closely resemble the data : r/r are negligible, short bond issuance substantial and persistent and short and long bonds positively co-vary. Intuitively long bonds help smooth taxes over states and short bonds over time. Solving incomplete market models with multiple assets is challenging so a further contribution of this paper is introducing a novel computational method to find global solutions. ; Faraglia gratefully acknowledges support from the Cambridge Endowment of Research in Finance (CERF), Marcet from Plan Nacional (Spanish Ministry of Science), Monfispol, AGAUR (Generalitat de Catalunya), the Axa Foundation, the Excellence Program of Banco de Espa˜na, European Research Council under the EU 7th Framework Programme (FP/2007-2013) Advanced ERC Grant Agreement n. 324048 - APMPAL and the Severo Ochoa Programme for Centres of Excellence in R&D (SEV-2015-0563) and Scott from the ESRCs World Economy and Finance program. ; Peer reviewed

We propose and implement a method that provides quantitative estimates of the extent to which higher-than-expected inflation can lower the real value of outstanding government debt. Looking forward, we derive a formula for the debt burden that relies on detailed information about debt maturity and claimholders, and that uses option prices to construct risk-adjusted probability distributions for inflation at different horizons. The estimates suggest that it is unlikely that inflation will lower the US fiscal burden significantly, and that the effect of higher inflation is modest for plausible counterfactuals. If instead inflation is combined with financial repression that ex post extends the maturity of the debt, then the reduction in value can be significant.

Third World debt, seen as distant from the realm of international affairs and ethics, is often subject to abstract economic analysis. Peter Bauer argues that in fact the way in which debt is addressed by debtors and lenders is heavily politicized and should be subject to ethical considerations. Many Third World countries choose to prolong debt even though they are capable of repaying it; moreover, the methods of gauging and reporting current income are spurious and subject to manipulation by countries' trade policies. The ethical questionability of some Third World practices is matched by equally questionable activity in the West. Special interest groups' agendas and banks' eyes for profits influence economic policy in favor of Third World countries, further increasing their debt. Bauer's discussion of these issues of denial and permissiveness depicts Third World debt as a political transaction that wrongly escapes ethical judgement.

The aim of this paper is to shed some light on the degree of sustainability of fiscal debt for a group of Central and Eastern European countries. We apply a battery of time series econometrics methods to show how the financial crisis has affected the debt‐to‐gross domestic product ratio and how the ratio has behaved recently. The results give us important insights into how governments in Central and Eastern Europe have reacted to the accumulation of debt. We distinguish between two groups of countries: one group where the sovereign debt stock stabilized after the crisis, and another where debt has been accumulated more quickly in recent years. The results provide important policy lessons for the authorities responsible.

AbstractDebt issuance procedures for federally sponsored agency securities differ considerably from the methods used by the U.S. Treasury and most corporate and municipal debt issuers. This paper examines the debt issuing procedures of the three major federally sponsored agencies and the efficiency with which the fiscal agents for those agencies price new debt issues. The conclusions from the analysis are: (1) fiscal agents for the major federally sponsored agencies are extremely adept at estimating the equilibrium competitive yields for new debt issues; (2) pricing errors on new issues are generally due to factors beyond a fiscal agent's control, such as the volatility of debt market conditions; and (3) the debt pricing practices for federally sponsored agency securities are efficient and effective.

Relevance of the research topic. Ensuring purposeful influence on social development requires the formation and implementation of an effective debt policy based on improving the institutional support of financial and budgetary reforms. Formulation of the problem. Important tasks in modern conditions are: increasing the efficiency of the debt mechanism and ensuring debt sustainability; improving the debt instruments of fiscal policy; optimizing the structure of the debt portfolio. Analysis of recent research and publications. Problems of formation and implementation of debt policy are quite common in the research of: D. Ricardo, R. McConnell, J. Mill, P. Samuelson, A. Smith, M. Friedman, I. Zapatrina, G. Kucher, L. Lysyak, I. Lukyanenko, A. Mazaraki, M. Pasichnyi, I. Chugunov and others. Selection of unexplored parts of the general problem. The above issues are relevant in connection with the deteriorating trend of socio-economic development, increasing military aggression against Ukraine, which requires a number of specific tasks in the field of debt management. Problem setting, research goals. The objectives of the study are: to reveal the role of debt policy at this stage of development of public relations; substantiate the peculiarities of the application of debt instruments of fiscal policy. The purpose of the study is to reveal the strategic directions of debt policy in modern conditions. Method or methodology of the study. The article uses a set of research methods: a systematic approach, structuring, synthesis, etc. Presentation of the main material (results of work). The role of debt policy at this stage of development of public relations is revealed. The peculiarities of the application of debt instruments of fiscal policy are substantiated. The strategic directions of debt policy in modern conditions are determined. Field of application of results. The results of the study can be used in the formation and implementation of debt policy. Conclusions according to the article. The validity of the implementation of debt policy is an important condition for achieving national socio-economic interests. In modern conditions it is necessary to understand the complexity and multidimensionality of the issues raised. At the same time, one of the most important tasks is to increase the efficiency of the debt mechanism and ensure debt stability.

A rise in the ageing population is the current demographic challenge which is capable of pressuring the government to borrow more external funds in order to support domestic needs. This study aims to investigate the effects of the external debt of 36 upper-middle-income economies from 2000 to 2017 due to the increase in the ageing population. This study employed the system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM), where it revealed that the ageing population could increase the level of external debt if the population aged 65 and above was used as a proxy to represent the ageing population. However, the results were insignificant when the proxy was changed to the old-age dependency ratio. It illustrated that the increase in external debt occurs due to the increase in the population aged 65 and above because the government has to allocate more funds for healthcare, age-friendly infrastructure, social security and pensions. However, the dependency of the older people on government is minimal because of their long-term savings. Hence, the old-age dependency ratio has an insignificant relationship with the external debt level. For future research, it is suggested that the impact of the ageing population can be investigated on the domestic debt level. First published online 23 December 2020

[full article and abstract in English] The aim of this paper is to analyze how public debt is used in Kosovo and to find out if there is a direct link between public debt and public investment that has positive impact on economic growth. Since acquiring independence, Kosovo engaged in public investment on a large scale, mainly in developing road infrastructure. With the cash balance depleted, a growing budget deficit and facing liquidity difficulties due to ongoing large public investments and increasing wage & salary bill and social transfers, the Government of Kosovo had to start borrowing both abroad and domestically. However, public debt had continued to increase even though public investment had experienced a sharp decrease. Since the budget financial statements do not show any deficit composition, we have recalculated a special-purpose deficit, the so-called "regular" budget deficit, considering only regular receipts and outlays. By disaggregating the total public debt based on lenders and by tying the loans to specific capital projects, we came to the conclusion that only a small part of the public debt is directly tied with public investment, while the bulk of it is used to finance the budget deficit that was caused by a high increase in wage & salary bill and social transfers. The analysis confirms that the public debt is being used for unproductive purposes and therefore does not contribute to economic growth. All this was supported by a lack of legal infrastructure or fiscal rules for several years. There is extensive literature on both public debt and public investments as well as their impact on economic growth. The literature review method was adopted for this study, and our research was refined by including the selected papers that contained empirical and theoretical studies on these issues. This is a case study for Kosovo, and the research has been carried out using secondary research data drawn from Kosovo budget annual financial reports and annual bulletins on public debt. The implications of this paper may be of high importance for policymakers as well as for academics, as this happens to be one of the pioneering articles in this field in terms of studies conducted about Kosovo. Herein is presented a unique approach to the issues of public debt and public investment.

This paper investigates the long-run effects of public debt and inflation on economic growth. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CS-DL) approach to the estimation of long-run effects in dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross-sectionally dependent errors. The relative merits of the CS-DL approach and other existing approaches in the literature are discussed and illustrated with small sample evidence obtained by means of Monte Carlo simulations. On the empirical side, using data on a sample of 40 countries over the 1965-2010 period, we find significant negative long-run effects of public debt and inflation on growth. Our results indicate that, if the debt to GDP ratio is raised and this increase turns out to be permanent, then it will have negative effects on economic growth in the long run. But if the increase is temporary, then there are no long-run growth effects so long as debt to GDP is brought back to its normal level. We do not find a universally applicable threshold effect in the relationship between public debt and growth. We only find statistically significant threshold effects in the case of countries with rising debt to GDP ratios.