Suchergebnisse

Artículo de revista ; This article analyses the link between the changes in and the drivers of inflation in a broad range of advanced economies, with special emphasis on those of the euro area. Inflation rates are seen to be highly synchronised across countries, especially in the euro area economies, reflecting their close economic and financial links and the common monetary policy. Also, the comovement of inflation is found to be a phenomenon that tends to be more visible in the medium and long-term. At the same time, the synchronisation of core inflation, which is based on products with more stable prices, is seen to be limited. The interdependence of headline inflation, by contrast, is significantly higher and has increased considerably in recent years. The drivers of inflation, according to New Keynesian Phillips curve models, such as inflation expectations, the cyclical position and external prices, also help to explain the relationship between inflation rates in advanced economies and especially in those of the euro area.

Does an improvement in growth prospects lead to a fall in the trade balance? The answer in the literature with a strong focus on the U.S. economy is yes. However, we do not find that improved growth prospects (news shocks) necessarily lead to negative trade balance effects in the G7 countries. We develop a novel news shocks identification scheme, apply it to country-level vector autoregressions (VARs), and obtain the following results. While in the U.S. and Germany, news shocks induce a deterioration of the trade balance, in other G7 countries, news shocks have positive trade balance effects. The differences in the trade balance effects across the G7 countries are mainly due to heterogeneous reactions of exchange rates, labor markets, wealth effects, and monetary policy. Therefore, policy recommendations aimed at reducing the trade imbalances through productivity-enhancing reforms in advanced economies might not entail the targeted effects. ; Führt eine dauerhafte Verbesserung der Wachstumsperspektiven in einem Land zu einer Verschlechterung der heimischen Handelsbilanz? Die Bedeutung dieser Forschungsfrage ergibt sich aus der Tendenz zu antizyklischen Schwankungen des Handelsbilanzsaldos, die sowohl die Fachliteratur als auch die politischen Entscheidungsträger betonen. Die Ergebnisse unserer Analyse zeigen, dass eine dauerhafte Verbesserung der Wachstumsperspektiven ("news shocks") in einem Land nicht zwangsläufig mit negativen heimischen Handelsbilanzeffekten in den G7-Ländern einhergeht. Zu diesem Zweck wird in dieser Studie ein neuer Identifikationsansatz entwickelt. Dieser greift auf sog. "news shocks", d.h. die von den Marktteilnehmern antizipierten technologische Innovationen, zurück. Dieser Ansatz wird auf länderspezifische vektorautoregressive Modelle angewendet. Die Ergebnisse unserer Analyse zeigen, dass sich die Handelsbilanz der USA in Folge eines "news shocks" persistent verschlechtert, während es in Deutschland nur zu einer temporären Verschlechterung kommt. Für die restlichen G7-Länder finden wir dagegen sogar eine vorübergehende Verbesserung der Handelsbilanz infolge eines "news shocks". Die Ergebnisse unterstreichen die Bedeutung intertemporaler Konsumglättung durch die privaten Haushalte sowie von Anpassungen der privaten Investitionsausgaben und des Arbeitseinsatzes zur Erklärung der Handelsbilanzschwankungen. Vor diesem Hintergrund dürften die wirtschaftspolitischen Empfehlungen, die Handelsbilanzungleichgewichte in den fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften durch produktivitätserhöhende Reformen zu verringern, nur zu vorübergehenden Effekten auf die Handelsbilanzsalden führen. ; This version: February 7, 2020

This paper examines financial market comovements across European transition economies and compares their experience to that of other regions. Correlations in monthly indices of exchange market pressures can partly be explained by direct trade linkages, but not by measures of other fundamentals. Higher‐frequency data during three crisis periods reveals the presence of structural breaks in the relationship between exchange‐, but not stock markets. While the reaction of markets during the Asian and Czech crises is muted, the pattern of high‐frequency spillovers during the Russian crisis looks very similar to that observed in other regions during turbulent times. With greater financial market integration, the financial markets of the more advanced transition economies can be expected to behave more and more like their Asian and Latin American counterparts.

Debates surrounding institutional change have become increasingly central to Political Science, Management Studies, and Sociology, opposing the role of globalization in bringing about a convergence of national economies and institutions on one model to theories about 'Varieties of Capitalism'.

Volume 27 of the International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometricsseries collects a range of unique and diverse chapters, each investigating different spheres of development in emerging markets with a specific focus on significant engines of growth and advancement in the Asia-Pacific economies.

Cover -- Contents -- Abstract -- I. Introduction -- II. Theoretical Framework -- A. Competitive Labor Market -- B. Bargaining Under the Right-to-Manage Model -- C. Efficient Bargaining -- D. Implications for the Empirical Analysis -- III. Dataset -- A. Employment Protection Legislation Reforms -- B. Layoff Rates -- C. Elasticities of Substitution -- D. Labor Share and Other Data -- E. Stylized Facts -- IV. Econometric Framework -- V. Baseline Results and Robustness Checks -- A. Country-level Analysis -- B. Country-industry Level Analysis -- VI. Extensions -- A. Channels -- B. EOS Above Versus Below 1 -- C. Back-of-the Envelope Calculation of the Contribution of Job Protection Deregulation to the Overall Decline in Labor Shares -- VII. Conclusion -- VIII. References -- Figures -- 1. Cumulative Changes in Country Labor Shares Around Reform Years -- 2. Cumulative Changes in Industry Labor Shares Around Reform Years by Industry -- 3. Country-level Analysis-Baseline Results -- 4. Country-industry-level Analysis-Baseline Results -- 5. Country-industry-level Analysis: Robustness to Excluding Individual Countries -- 6. Country-industry-level Analysis: Robustness to Excluding Individual Industries -- Tables -- 1. Country-level Analysis: Robustness Checks -- 2. Country-industry-level Analysis: Robustness Checks on Lag Specification -- 3. Country-industry-level Analysis: Robustness Checks on Sample Composition -- 4. Country-industry Analysis: Robustness Checks on the Layoff Rates -- 5. Country-industry Analysis: Robustness Checks on the Elasticities of Substitution -- 6. Country-industry-level Analysis: Robustness Checks on Potential Omitted -- 7. Country-industry-level Analysis: Extension on Labor Share Drivers -- 8. Country-industry-level Analysis: Extension on Sample Split According to Elasticity of -- Appendixes -- 1. Dataset of Reforms.

"Asset allocation decisions of international investors are at the core of capital flows. This paper explores the impact of these decisions on long-term government bond yields, using a quarterly investor base dataset for 22 advanced economies over 2004-2012. We find that a one percentage point increase in the share of government debt held by foreign investors can explain a 6-10 basis point reduction in long-term sovereign bond yields over the sample period. Accordingly, international flows to core advanced economy bond markets over 2008-12 are estimated to have reduced 10-year government bond yields by 40-65 basis points in Germany, 20-30 basis points in the U.K., and 35-60 basis points in the U.S. In contrast, foreign outflows are estimated to have raised 10-year government bond yields by 40-70 basis points in Italy and 110-180 basis points in Spain during the same period. Our results suggest that the divergence in long-term bond yields between core and periphery economies in the euro area may continue unless the "normalization" of macroeconomic determinants of bond yields is accompanied by a similar "normalization" of the foreign investor base"--Abstract