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Foreign policy mandarins have spent years fighting over what to make of former President Donald Trump. At heart, is he a hawk or a dove? Does he hope to be a new Nixon, capable of seeking detente with enemies despite (or even because of) his mean streak? Or perhaps a new Reagan, focused on achieving "peace through strength"?I might ask it a different way: Who cares? New political science research suggests that Trump's personal views are not the most important part of the puzzle. In short, it's the advisers, stupid. This may sound like received wisdom, but its implications are profound. Researchers created an unprecedented dataset of minutes from presidential meetings related to foreign policy during the Cold War. Using complex statistical methods, they found that the relative hawkishness of a president's advisers is a remarkably good predictor of whether a leader will make "conflictual decisions" regarding an adversary.The differences can be stark. If you assemble the most hawkish group of presidential advisers from the Cold War, the model predicts they would make six times as many aggressive choices as the least hawkish group. Over the course of a presidency, that could mean hundreds of extra moves liable to spark new conflicts or escalate simmering disputes."Who dominates the room [...] does seem to have a systematic effect" on whether presidents choose hawkish or dovish paths, said Tyler Jost, a professor at Brown University who co-led the project.Now, Trump has a unique opportunity. The new research finds that hawkishness is surprisingly consistent from administration to administration; in fact, it varies more within administrations than between them — a statistical testament to the power of the so-called foreign policy "blob." Perhaps more than any president in recent memory, Trump has the chance to ditch advocates of global primacy and hire proponents of a more restrained U.S. foreign policy.Indeed, the former president is spoiled for choice. Most candidates for posts in a new Trump administration now agree that Washington should shift its focus to Asia by pursuing real retrenchment in Europe and the Middle East. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) — a close Trump ally and top vice presidential candidate — has slammed U.S. military adventurism, called for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine, and even voted in favor of removing U.S. troops from Syria in December.New think tanks have popped up to support this viewpoint, and some old conservative stalwarts have refashioned themselves as America Firsters who want to help shape a different, more populist vision of U.S. foreign policy. These groups are creating staffing pipelines for a new brand of conservative foreign policy, and the consequences of their investment could go far beyond 2024.The transition battleThe Heritage Foundation wants you to know that it's changed. Once a premier home for neocons and uber hawks, the eminence grise of conservative politics now loudly calls for the U.S. to pull back from the Middle East and Europe, all while railing against inefficient military spending.Heritage's shift reflects broader changes in the conservative movement dating back to Trump's first election in 2016. "The real America First foreign policy position recognizes that the last few decades were characterized by a series of blunders," argued Micah Meadowcroft, the research director at the conservative Center for Renewing America (CRA) and a former staffer in the Trump White House. "Our leadership class messed up badly" during the so-called unipolar moment by launching a global crusade against terrorism and ignoring China's rise, Meadowcroft told RS.Conservative realists hope that recognizing this shift will allow the U.S. to focus all of its attention on preparing for — and hopefully deterring — a war with China over Taiwan. "China remains the single greatest threat to American interests in the world today, and we just haven't been acting like it," said Alex Velez-Green, a former adviser to Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) now based at Heritage. "My view is that a new administration will really need to prioritize it."The key question is how to strike a balance between deterrence and provocation. Velez-Green draws on a "peace through strength" tradition exemplified by Elbridge Colby, a prominent China hawk who appears poised to get a major role in a new Trump administration. While all hope to avoid war, other realists have argued for a more conservative approach to Beijing's rise.Regardless of the reasons behind this broader shift, conservatives have made big investments in order to shape its path. The most influential effort is Heritage's Project 2025, an initiative that has raised millions of dollars to identify potential staffers for a second Trump administration and plan policies to help vault it back into the White House.For supporters of a more restrained foreign policy, Project 2025 has a lot to offer. While any Heritage program is bound to make up a big tent of conservative views, "the leadership of Project 2025 is a lot more aligned to a more Trumpian strain of America First, which is a more narrow, national-interest oriented idea," said Sumantra Maitra of the CRA, who has advised on the effort. Will Ruger, who Trump nominated as his ambassador to Afghanistan, welcomed Heritage's shift toward a "much more prudential approach to American foreign policy."But there are still some reasons to doubt Heritage's restraint bona fides. Project 2025's transition manifesto makes clear that the conservative tone setter is not quite ready to drop its commitment to fighting global terrorism and keeping down America's parochial enemies, however weak they may now be.Of course, Heritage is far from the only game in town. Its foreign policy team has often found common cause with the CRA, a right-wing think tank with restraint-oriented views on international affairs that Maitra said will be a "key player" in the planning for a second Trump term. Trump himself reportedly read and at least partially endorsed Maitra's CRA paper calling for a major down-sizing of the U.S. role in NATO.On the other side, traditional hawks at organizations like the American Enterprise Institute and the Hoover Institute continue to hold sway in both mainstream and conservative media, as Meadowcroft pointed out. But many prominent hard-line hawks — like one-time Trump adviser John Bolton — have had a sufficiently large break with the MAGA movement to make them persona non grata in any future Trump White House.The America First Policy Institute (AFPI) appears determined to split the difference. Like Heritage, AFPI has questioned the wisdom of continued U.S. aid to Ukraine and pushed hard for Europe to shoulder more of the burden of its own defense. But the startup policy outfit — created as something of a White House in waiting — has a bit of a neocon streak when it comes to the Middle East, with a particular focus on countering Iranian influence and supporting Israel.There is no love lost between Heritage and AFPI, as journalist Sam Adler-Bell recently noted in the New York Times. "A.F.P.I. partisans see Heritage as a latecomer to the Trump train, establishment wolves in 'America First' clothing," Adler-Bell wrote. "Some at Heritage see A.F.P.I. as a redoubt of precisely those unreliable Trump appointees — grifters and RINOs — who trade on their relationships with the president to ensure they can continue to run the show." This antipathy helps to explain why AFPI has a separate Trump staffing effort, known as the America First Transition Project.One should note, however, that the two don't always disagree. They share some staff and have both kept strong ties to more traditional foreign policy shops. Part of this stems from the fact that even the more dovish members of the GOP national security world are more hawkish on, say, the Middle East and Venezuela than hard-line realists. But, on balance, restrainers are more skeptical of AFPI than their old foes at Heritage.It remains unclear which side has Trump's ear. AFPI associates — including Fred Fleitz, Keith Kellogg, and John Ratcliffe — often show up on lists of current and potential future Trump advisers. He also reportedly consults with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), who rank among the most hawkish figures in American politics. (Pompeo's habit of calling himself a "realist" is a particular point of frustration for many America Firsters.)But, as efforts like Project 2025 demonstrate, Trump will no longer be stuck with old-school options on every front. There are no hardcore restrainers known to be in the running for major roles, but the former president is reportedly considering Richard Grenell and Kash Patel — both of whom have a somewhat less interventionist streak — for top jobs in his administration. And, as just about everyone I spoke with noted, there's still plenty of time for other potential nominees to gain ground before the election."The bench is deeper, and therefore there are more folks to turn to if a president wants to go in a restraint direction," said Ruger.Trump 2.0Much of the planning for a second Trump administration revolves around staffing. This laser focus is a response to his first term, in which advisers and officials often took steps to block the implementation of the president's preferred policies.Take Syria. When Trump ordered that U.S. troops be withdrawn from the country in 2019, the move sparked an uproar among policy experts who argued that it would leave our Kurdish allies in the lurch. Jim Jeffrey — then the special envoy to Syria — persuaded Trump to leave a token force in the country but later revealed that "we were always playing shell games to not make clear to our leadership how many troops we had there."Trump world is looking to make sure that never happens again. Heritage wants a new administration to make sweeping personnel changes that would allow Trump to replace thousands of federal bureaucrats with more sympathetic cadres.This is both an opportunity and a challenge for restrainers. On the "challenge" side, Trump has increasingly signaled that he wants to use military force against Mexican cartels, a proposal that most realists reject as dangerous and counterproductive. And, as Jost of Brown University notes, presidents don't just select their advisers based on hawkishness. They have to make decisions about which advisers will appease which constituencies in their base, among other considerations. In Trump's case, loyalty to the president appears to be another key criterion.But loyalty to Trump doesn't get your nomination through Congress. For many top jobs, nominees will have to persuade the old-school hawks in the Senate that they won't change too much about the status quo. Restraint-oriented nominees will, however, get help from the growing group of young America Firsters on Capitol Hill, not to mention the changing of the guard symbolized by Sen. Mitch McConnell's (R-Ky.) decision to step down from leadership.It will be up to Trump to decide whether he picks less controversial candidates for these positions or simply relies on "acting" appointees, as he did at the end of his first term. The former president will have much more room to maneuver when it comes to the National Security Council, whose leaders don't require confirmation.These challenges aside, the decisions that Trump makes in a potential second term could have a massive, lasting impact on the direction of conservative foreign policy. To better understand how, a quick history lesson is in order.In 2007, Democratic foreign policy big wigs founded the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), a hawkish center-left think tank first conceived as a government in waiting for Hillary Clinton. When Barack Obama beat Clinton in the primaries, he made the fateful decision to soften his stance on the Iraq War and staff up his team with CNAS acolytes.The CNAS crew — in addition to Clinton herself — earned powerful roles in Obama's administration that allowed them to steer the president away from his anti-war rhetoric on the campaign trail. The result was a vicious or virtuous cycle, depending on where you stand. The more hawkish CNAS staffers got coveted government experience (and connections) that put weight behind their arguments. Once they left government, they took their place as the sages of liberal foreign policy, with many returning in 2020 to staff the Biden administration.Obama's decision may have been practical. The progressive foreign policy landscape was, and in many ways still is, short on funding and candidates for high-level jobs. But Trump has the virtue of a genuine choice. The former president probably won't reject staffers based on their hawkishness — but perhaps he should. Research suggests it just might prevent the next war before it happens.

In the last decades digital modelling applied to geological research is getting increasing attention (Alaei, 2012; Tomassetti et al., 2018; Trippetta et al., 2020; De Franco et al., 2019; Mascolo and Lecomte, 2021). Indeed, relevant implications both in scientific and economic terms could be inferred by using this technique. In particular, the application of digital models in complex geologic scenarios is critical for the understanding of potentially exploitable systems from multiple perspectives. Starting from the most classical model application for the exploitation of oil and gas fields passing through the implementation of extraction strategies - by reducing uncertainties (Macgregor & Moody, 1998; Racey 2001) - digital models find new place in latest applications such as natural gas storage. Recently, models are also applied for the study of geological bodies, potential reservoirs for the CO2 or hydrogen injection (Dockrill and Shipton, 2010; Trippetta et al., 2013; Aminu et al., 2017; Heinemann et al., 2018). Modelling contribute and facilitate to capture and store gases in the subsurface, balancing their release into the atmosphere. Digital modelling represents one of the major innovative strategies in the control of greenhouse gases concentration in atmosphere, a currently trending topic from media, public opinion, and political points of view. Another possible application of digital models for subsurface gas storage involves the monitoring of reservoirs in order to ascertain and quantify gas leakage through fault or fracture systems (Wang et al., 2018). Moreover, radioactive waste storage could be integrated as current and powerful employment of digital models (Malvić et al., 2020). In particular, the technological tools used for these purposes are called forward models since their outcomes gives predictive results on the processes happened in the past and protracted towards the future. They appear extremely suitable for the study of geological subsurface formations that can be also applied to an emerging field such as the development of geothermal energy power plants (De Franco et al., 2019). All these are topics of great actuality since world governments' plans are1 directed towards the total replacement of classic energy sources from hydrocarbons with green energies. However, digital modelling needs input data such as geometries and rock properties that should be well constrained. Seismic exploration is probably the most powerful tool for investigating subsurface rock formations (Avseth et al., 2010). Important progress has been made in recent years, but significant problems remain in the geologic interpretation of seismic data. The reflections that can be read in seismic data depend on the Acoustic Impedance (AI) contrast in the transit of the P-wave between layers in the subsurface. AI depends on the density (ϼ) and the P-wave velocity (Vp) of the medium through which wave propagates (AI= ϼ Vp). These petrophysical characteristics, in turn, are controlled by structure, texture, porosity, and boundary conditions of the rocks (Dvorkin et al., 2014; Tomassetti et al., 2018; Trippetta et al., 2020; Brandano et al., 2020). These two links, one between rock structure and its elasticity and the other between elasticity and signal propagation, form the physical basis of seismic interpretation (Anselmetti and Eberli, 1993; Eberli et al. 2003; Weger et al. 2009; Hairabian et al. 2014; Dvorkin et al., 2014). Dealing with these relationships, we are facing the so- called inverse problem. We see from seismic sections the resulting seismic images of rock formations where the same signal can be the result of a combination of different features. It should be, thus, very useful to well understand what are the features that lead to a certain seismic image. Synthetic seismic modelling (or forward modelling) is a fundamental prospecting method for understanding the features leading to the corresponding seismic images of subsurface structures and reservoir architectures (Alaei, 2012). Forward modelling methodology, as approach to the interpretation of seismic data, involves the detailed characterization of lithology, density, porosity, seismic velocity and fluid in the rock, as well as the reservoir geometry. As a result, the corresponding seismic properties are calculated, and then synthetic seismic traces are generated. These issues became essential for lithologies characterized by a complex seismic interpretation (Al-Salmi et al., 2019). In addition, synthetic seismic forward models allow accurate analysis of fault zones. The study of seismic response in fault zones is crucial since the2 fracturing or compaction that faults create strongly modifies the petrophysical characteristics of rocks by affecting their properties (Botter et al., 2017; Kolyukhin et al., 2017). Synthetic seismic forward models are, therefore, mandatory for the comprehension of faults behaviour through seismic imaging. Faults play a key role in reservoirs by increasing or limiting fluid flow. Even if interpretation of seismic data is a pivotal method for studying the subsurface, the internal structure and properties of fault zones are often below the limit imposed by seismic resolution (Botter et al., 2017). Despite the impact of faults on reservoir permeability, modelling tools and workflows still lack for realistic representation of fault zones in models (Tveranger et al., 2005; Braathen et al., 2009; Manzocchi et al., 2010). With facies analysis and petrophysical data it is possible to build field-based digital models fundamental in understanding architectures of carbonate sedimentary bodies which often constitute reservoir surface analogues of buried world-wide petroleum systems, CO2, hydrogen, radioactive waste storage sites and geothermal fields. Surface analogues are rocks with depositional, textural, and petrophysical characteristics similar to those constituting the petroleum system, but they outcrop on the surface. Starting from petrophysical characteristics of facies, forward models can be built. In this thesis, as a case study for the development of a forward model, rocks belonging to the carbonate realm, more specifically carbonate ramps, were analyzed. Carbonate ramps constitute important hydrocarbon deposits in North Africa (Macgregor & Moody, 1998), Venezuela, and many other regions of the World (Racey, 2001) due to their excellent porosity and permeability characteristics. However, the depositional model that is the basis for a proper interpretation produces many uncertainties arising from the difficulty in attributing different facies to a depositional environment and process due to the poor occurrence of sedimentary structures (Buxton and Pedley, 1989; Pomar and Kendall, 2008; Burchette, 2012; Bassi et al., 2013; Tomassetti et al., 2018; Tomassetti et al., 2022). In addition, strong lateral heterogeneity in terms of petrophysical characteristics, components, structure, and texture leads to complex distinction of facies belts (Tomassetti et al., 2018; Trippetta et al., 2020; Brandano et al., 2020). To overcome these issues, quantification of3 petrophysical characteristics can be crucial in understanding facies heterogeneity from a physical perspective to be incorporated in synthetic seismic forward models building. Carbonate rocks are often difficult to interpret seismically because the slight acoustic impedance contrast at the interface between carbonate facies in subsurface does not allow a clear resolution of major reflectors and reservoir formations. Strong constraints are often imposed by geophysical survey techniques characterized by low resolution especially in carbonates and interpretation capabilities that depend on the interpreter skill (Tomassetti et al., 2018; Trippetta and Geremia, 2019; Faleide et al., 2021). These constraints can be overtaken through the modelling of surface analogues allowing a detailed analysis on the facies association but also their petrophysical characteristics and seismic properties such as acoustic impedance (Tomassetti et al., 2018; Lipparini et al., 2018; Trippetta and Geremia, 2019; Brandano et al., 2020). In order to analyse the petrophysical characteristics and seismic response of the carbonate realm through modelling two carbonate ramps both belonging to the Adria plate were considered as case studies. The first is the Chattian carbonate ramp of the Porto Badisco calcarenite outcropping in the southern Salento peninsula, the southernmost portion of the Apulian carbonate platform. The Porto Badisco carbonate ramp is an excellent surface analogue of exploited oil and gas field in the offshore Venezuela, Philippine and South China Sea (Zampetti et al., 2005; Sattler et al.,2004; Fournier and Borgomano, 2007; Lallier et al., 2012; Marini and Spadafora, 2014; Pomar et al., 2015; Valencia and Laya, 2020) as well as fields in offshore Adriatic Sea such as Ombrina Mare field (Campagnoni et al., 2013). In this carbonate system firstly the analysis of outcropping facies was carried out observing over 100 thin sections produced. Consequently facies association modelling was performed through Petrel software (mark of Schlumberger) using TGSim stochastic approach algorithm adopting the depositional model based on field data. This model is useful for qualitatively understand the broad facies spacial distribution which reflects the abrupt heterogeneity from a sedimentary point of view. To physically quantify the lateral facies heterogeneity the petrophysical characteristics such as porosity, density and seismic velocity were measured and analyzed through a multi-analytical approach. Density4 measurements were carried out with the helium pycnometer. Porosity was firstly calculated from the density data and then was additionally measured through image analysis and point counting to cross-correlate the values. Seismic velocity was measured by using an ultrasonic generator connected to piezoelectic transducers and to an oscilloscope. The analysis performed on the carbonate ramp outcropping in Porto Badisco offers the opportunity to analyze facies heterogeneity, modeling its distribution and physically quantifying it through petrophysical characterization. From the petrophysical data, it was possible to construct 2D models of the distribution of porosity and P-wave seismic velocity along the depositional model. This study, which can be applied globally to carbonate platforms, emphasizes with the modelling exercise how facies heterogeneity is an intrinsic feature of these systems. The petrophysical characterization which provides quantitative values to the heterogeneity allow to build more complex models such as seismic forward models discussed in the second chapter. The other case study is represented by the Cenozoic carbonate ramp outcropping on the Majella Massif in Abruzzi, the northernmost portion of the Apulian carbonate platform which gives the opportunity to study a carbonate ramp surface analogue of a buried reservoir. Also in Majella the Oligo- Miocene stratigraphic interval represented by the Bolognano Formation which is the reservoir of the system is considered an excellent surface analogue of the productive fields in the Adriatic Sea, offshore Venezuela, Philippines and many others worldwide (Tomassetti et al., 2021). Specifically, this system offers the opportunity to integrate the facies heterogeneity in the synthetic seismic forward modelling and understand its seismic response without the introduction of artificial noise to obtain additional information. On the Majella Massif a model of the facies heterogeneity to understand their seismic response was performed. After analyzing the facies and measuring their petrophysical characteristics, the data obtained were used as input for build a 3D property modelling in Petrel software representing the entire carbonate ramp from the topographic surface to the Upper Cretaceous from the platform top going towards the basin located northward from the Majella Massif. From the 3D model was cut a section whose data were used as input in Matlab (mark of Mathworks) in order to perform the synthetic seismic forward model5 with the geophysical codes provided by the CREWES consortium. The resulting forward model represent the seismic response of the facies heterogeneity of carbonate rocks. In addition, from the obtained seismic images it is possible to evaluate the presence of hydrocarbons and to identify how the presence of important bituminous impregnations – that can be appreciated in the field in Majella – modify the seismic response. The workflow developed to quantify the signature of the facies heterogeneity of carbonate rocks and the presence of infilling hydrocarbons is applicable to other systems worldwide, which is a large issue that is still open and can help in the problems relative to seismic interpretation associated with these systems. Given the presence of a buried normal fault system in the study area, a forward modelling in the fault zones was performed as well. By measuring the petrophysical characteristics of the fault rocks characterized by both fracturing or compaction, fault zones were modeled. Two end member scenarios with two opposite behaviors of the rocks belonging to the damage zone were modeled in Matlab. A scenario in which the damage zone is characterized by fracturing and therefore rocks affected by greater porosity than the host rock. In the other scenario was modeled a damage zone with lower porosity than the host rock caused by the presence of compaction bands. Consequently, the seismic response of these end members was compared to understand how faults affect the seismic response of carbonate ramp systems. Notoriously, fault systems globally characterize carbonate ramps, and understanding their seismic response facilitates interpretation of the deformation behavior that a fault can assume under different boundary conditions. This can lead to an understanding of whether faults behave as barriers or conduits for fluids with the important implications for the study of fluid leakage from reservoirs.

Access to a lawyer at the pre-trial stage of proceedings is an essential component of the right to defense in criminal proceedings and the right to a fair trial. Access to a lawyer enables the accused to make a good decision for his her defence. At present, there is no doubt that prompt access to a lawyer constitutes an important counterweight to the vulnerability of suspects in police custody, ensures equality of arms and provides a fundamental safeguard against coercion. This study analyses a suspect's right to access to a lawyer at the initial stage of criminal proceedings in the case law of the European Court of Human Rights. The first part of the article provides an analysis of the understanding of the right to a lawyer at the pre-trial stage as applied by the ECtHR prior to the Salduz case. This period in the ECtHR's case law was characterized by a lack of precision as to the temporal limits of the right laid down in Article 6 § 3 (c) of the ECHR. The next part shows the changes brought about by the judgment in the Salduz case regarding the protection of suspects and ensuring their right to counsel. It is argued that the Salduzdoctrine not only covered the suspect's access to a lawyer at the initial stage of the pre-trial proceedings, but also stressed the obligation to inform the suspect of his or her rights, including the right to remain silent. An important element of the Salduz doctrine was the possibility to eliminate evidence obtained during an interrogation conducted at an early stage of the pre-trial proceedings in the absence of a defense counsel. Further, the paper argues that the standard set out in the judgment in the Salduz v. Turkey case was confirmed in a number of rulings. The fourth part of the paper draws attention to the erosion of the Salduz standard that occurred with the judgment in the Ibrahim and Others v. the UK case. The article also brings into focus recent judgments of the ECtHR which have reinforced the view expressed in the Ibrahim and Others v. the UK case concerning a test of fairness of a trial as whole. It is underlined in the conclusions that recent ECtHR's case law does not provide any cause for optimism regarding legal assistance at an early stage of criminal proceedings. ; O acesso a um advogado na fase anterior ao julgamento é um componente essencial do direito de defesa no processo penal e do direito a um julgamento justo. O acesso a um advogado permite que o imputado tome uma boa decisão em relação à sua defesa. Atualmente, não há dúvida de que o acesso imediato à defesa técnica constitui um contrapeso importante à vulnerabilidade dos suspeitos sob custódia policial, garante a igualdade de armas e fornece uma salvaguarda fundamental contra a coerção. Este estudo analisa o direito do imputado a um advogado na fase inicial da persecução penal na jurisprudência do Tribunal Europeu de Direitos Humanos. A primeira parte do artigo apresenta uma análise da compreensão sobre o direito a um advogado na fase anterior ao julgamento, conforme aplicado pelo TEDH antes do caso Salduz. Esse período foi caracterizado por uma falta de precisão quanto aos limites temporais do direito previsto no artigo 6.º, n.º 3, alínea c, da CEDH. O item subsequente apresenta as mudanças trazidas pelo julgamento do caso Salduz no que diz respeito à proteção dos suspeitos e à garantia de seu direito à defesa técnica. Argumenta-se que a doutrina Salduz não apenas abrangia o acesso do suspeito a um advogado na fase inicial do procedimento prévio ao julgamento, mas também enfatizava a obrigação de informar o suspeito sobre os seus direitos, incluindo o direito de permanecer em silêncio. Um elemento importante da doutrina Salduz era a possibilidade de excluir as provas obtidas durante um interrogatório em investigação preliminar conduzido na ausência de um advogado de defesa. Além disso, argumenta-se que o standard estabelecido no julgamento no caso Salduz v. Turquia foi confirmado em uma série de decisões posteriores. A quarta parte do artigo chama a atenção para a erosão do padrão Salduz que ocorreu com o julgamento no caso Ibrahim e outros vs. Reino Unido. O artigo também destaca os recentes acórdãos do TEDH, que reforçaram a opinião expressa no caso Ibrahim e outros c. Reino Unido a respeito de uma verificação de legitimidade do julgamento como um todo. Salienta-se nas conclusões que a jurisprudência recente do TEDH não oferece qualquer motivo para otimismo em relação à assistência jurídica na fase inicial da persecução penal. ; sakowicz@uwb.edu.pl ; Professor at the University of Bialystok, Poland; the Faculty of Law; the Department of Criminal Procedure. ; University of Bialystok, Poland ; ARNARDÓTTIR, Oddný Mjöll. Res Interpretata, Erga Omnes Effect and the Role of the Margin of Appreciation in Giving Domestic Effect to the Judgments of the European Court of Human Rights. European Journal of International Law, v. 28, n. 3, p. 819–843, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1093/ejil/chx045 ; BACHMAIER WINTER, Lorena; THAMAN, C. Stephan. A Comparative View of the Right to Counsel and the Protection of Attorney-Client Communications. In: BACHMAIER WINTER, Lorena; THAMAN, C. Stephen; LYNN, Veronica (eds.). The Right to Counsel and the Protection of Attorney-Client Privilege in Criminal Proceedings. A Comparative View. 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Human Rights and Civil Liberties in the 21st Century, Springer Netherlands, 2014, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7599-2_10 ; CELIKSOY, Ergul. Ibrahim and Others v. UK: Watering down the Salduz principles? New Journal of European Criminal Law, v. 9, n. 2, p. 229-246, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1177/2032284418778149 ; CELIKSOY, Ergul. Overruling 'the Salduz Doctrine' in Beuze v Belgium: The ECtHR's further retreat from the Salduz principles on the right to access to lawyer. New Journal of European Criminal Law, v. 10, n. 4, p. 342-362, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1177/2032284419879228 ; CZERNIKA, Dominika. Europeski Przegląd Sądowy, nr 9, p. Prawo podejrzanego do kontaktu z adwokatem (art. 6 ust. 3 lit. c EKPCz) w orzecznictwie Europejskiego Trybunału Praw Człowieka, p. 28-39, 2017. ; DZIERŻANOWSKA, Joanna. Access to a Lawyer for a Suspect at Early Stage of Criminal Proceedings and Its Participation in Investigative Acts. 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Received: 2021-05-17 | Accepted: 2021-07-08 | Available online: 2021-12-31https://doi.org/10.15414/afz.2021.24.04.315-321Milk fat is a source of not only nutritionally valuable but also biologically active ingredients that are involved in various regulatory processes, thus participating in a functioning organism. These compounds have been studied and various beneficial effects on the health and development of the organism have been described. Ingredients such as fatty acids (monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids and conjugated linoleic acid) and phospholipids (glycerophospholipids and sphingolipids) may have a beneficial effect on human health or can prevent various diseases. Some candidate genes that are significantly involved in milk fat metabolisms, such as diacylglycerol O-acyltransferase 1 and stearoyl-CoA desaturase 1, thus contribute to the composition and concentration of the individual components of milk fat. 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University and industry (U-I) are the main sources of knowledge and innovation which are increasingly becoming the main pillar of competitiveness at micro and macro level. Despite potential synergies and benefits for the involved agentes, economies and society, communication between university and industry in the scope of innovation remains limited for decades. While a number of tools exists to stimulate U-I communication for innovation and the recognition for the need to ensure crossfertilising academic and industrial resources is increasing, currently implemented strategies rarely translate into long-term U-I engagement into co-innovation. Literature recognises i/organisational barriers, ii/ lack of adjustments of the strategies to stakeholders needs and local socio-economic conditions, and iii/ lack of tolls and strategic measures modernisation among the main reasons for poor results of the support strategies (Al-Agtash & Al-Fahoum, 2008, Vries et al., 2019). Therefore, better understanding how to address those challenges is needed. As a reaction to the current state, our study is centred on the main research question – How to build effective strategies for U-I communication for innovation? To contribute to the solution, we are looking at specific tools and measures with potential to enable effective U-I communication for innovation across the barriers and the tools applicability. We approach the issue by means of systematic literature review, multiple regression and structural equation modelling. Within initial systematic review we map the existing knowledge to define which tools could be applied to bridge the main identified U-I communication barriers, such as differences in pourpose, standards and procedures or culture or language gaps. That process allowed us to from one side define which tools can be used to bridge each of the identified gaps and from the other side reviled a broad number of gaps in the current body of knowledge that do not allow decision makers design effective knowledge based strategies. In our empirical studies we address a limited number of the identified gaps, specifically: i/ lack of clear empirical evidence regarding different impact of policy measures within different economic contexts; ii/ lack of modern studies on information and communication technology (ICT) influence on U-I communication, iii/highly limited amount of quantitative and comparative studies in the scope of U-I communication, iv/ lack of studies regarding international scope of U-I communication for innovation. In the first place, in chapter 3 we analyse how applicability of macro-level tools may differ in countries at different development levels and whether the impact of U-I communication on economic development differs. Furtherly, in chapters 4 and 5 we analyse applicability of computer mediated communication (CMC) in the scope of cross-organisational communication with engagement of university and industry. We specifically look at the potential of a groupware system to build social capital (that was previously shown to have the ability to bridge U-I communication barriers) and how specific functions can support usefulness of such a tool to enable effective U-I communication for innovation. Our main findings show empirically that the level of U-I communication is insufficient to significantly stimulate economic development. Countries at all development levels struggle to reach a critical mass of effective U-I communication for innovation and need to adjust their strategies to support U-I communication. Supporting increase in quality of research institutions and private R&D invetments is relevant at all development levels, while staff training related with absorptive capacity is relevant at lower development levels. However, our results suggest that, creating effective strategy for fostering U-I communication requires its adjustment to economic environment as the governmental mechanism can result in both, positive and negative influence on U-I communication. Meanwhile, on cross-organisational level, such a communication and its sustainability may be supported by providing effective means for computer mediated communication at the interface between organisations. To generate such a result, information and communication technology needs to provide social usefulness and mechanisms for building social capital. Functionalities enhancing participatory character and transparency of cross-organisational communication and providing interactivity within computer mediated communication shown enabling character for overcoming cross-organisational barriers. ; Em 1987, num estudo da comunicação dentro do sistema sueco de inovação Höglund e Persson (1987), baseando-se no estudo da literatura dos últimos 15 anos, mostraram que a comunicação entre a indústria e a universidade (U-I) no âmbito da inovação é extremamente limitada. O nosso estudo dos 32 anos seguintes sobre área sugere claramente que, apesar do crescente do reconhecimento dos potenciais benefícios da comunicação U-I na inovação e das tentativas dos agentes governamentais e sociais para incentivar o envolvimento mútuo das universidades e da indústria na investigação e inovação, o progresso alcançado não foi significativo. Höglund e Persson (1987), embora reconhecessem a falta de conhecimento sobre a génese do problema, especularam que as possíveis razões para tal estado se encontrariam na relevância limitada da investigação básica com aplicações práticas e na generalizada falta de contacto entre diferentes agentes do sistema de I&D. Desde então, a literatura estudou a questão em detalhe, mostrando que, por um lado, o problema está nas barreiras organizacionais da comunicação U-I (Gera, 2012; Vries et al., 2018) e, por outro, na falta de ferramentas e sistemas adequados para que a comunicação U-I para a inovação ocorra de forma natural e não mediada (Bayne et al., 2016; Suomi et al., 2019). A literatura destaca especialmente que a comunicação U-I é fortemente obstruída por diferenças de objectivos, culturais e linguísticas, lacunas de incentivos ou diferenças de procedimentos e padrões de qualidade (Plewa et al., 2013a; D'Hooghe 2017; Vries et al., 2019). Enquanto isso, postula-se que uma comunicação eficaz na inovação traz benefícios significativos não apenas para os agentes envolvidos, mas também para a economia e para a sociedade (Martins, 2016; Suomi et al., 2019). A importância da comunicação entre universidade e indústria está a aumentar especialmente devido à mudança do mercado global em direção à concorrência baseada no conhecimento e à crescente importância de tecnologias inteligentes e inovação que, devido à sua complexidade, exigem o envolvimento de uma ampla gama de conhecimentos multidisciplinares. Neste ambiente económico, a falta de envolvimento de diferentes agentes com experiência em inovação e em múltiplas disciplinas exclui as economias de competir eficazmente nos principais sectores, gera custos através de oportunidades perdidas e duplicação de esforços, pode levar a uma maior marginalização das regiões menos desenvolvidas (MacLead et al., 1997 ; Sheen & MacBryde, 1995; Hotaling et al., 2012; Kopczynska & Ferreira, 2018). Enquanto isso, a falta de comunicação U-I eficiente no âmbito da inovação tem sido relatada não apenas em regiões menos desenvolvidas na área da inovação (Hassen, 2018), mas também entre os líderes em inovação (Suomi et al., 2019; Kim & Jang, 2019). Apesar da popularização recente de conceitos como universidade empreendedora e modelo de hélice tripla ou quádrupla, apesar dos investimentos governamentais significativos em estratégias que incentivam a comunicação U-I ou aumentam o reconhecimento da terceira missão da universidade, o problema da comunicação U-I insuficiente continua a ser um problema global. Embora atualmente o conhecimento sobre as barreiras da comunicação U-I seja extenso, falta entender como usar efetivamente ferramentas e estratégias para as superar (Kim & Jang, 2019). A literatura mostra especialmente que, enquanto países de todo o mundo investem em medidas para apoiar a comunicação e a colaboração U-I (Cooke, 2002; Peng et al., 2017), os seus esforços geralmente levam a resultados altamente limitados e insustentáveis (Lissoni, 2010; Suomi et al., 2019; Kim & Jang, 2019). Isto sugere que a compreensão atual das complexidades relacionadas com as estratégias para promover a comunicação U-I para inovação é limitada e a sua melhoria poderia contribuir para melhores estratégias de suporte e melhor capitalização dos recursos de conhecimento. A literatura enfatiza especialmente que as questões estão relacionadas com i/ a tendência de transferir ingenuamente práticas bem-sucedidas entre países, com diferentes contextos económico e culturais, sem a devida compreensão e / ou adaptação (Macleod et al., 1997; Salem & Amjed, 2008; Sandberg et al. al., 2015; Kim & Jang, 2019), ii / falta de modernização das medidas aplicadas aos desafios e oportunidades atuais (Paslowski et al., 2015; Kim & Jang, 2019), iii / foco na transferência unidirecional de conhecimento, em vez de na comunicação baseada em ciclos de feedback e dialogo para inovação (Kodama, 2002; Peng et al., 2017; Hayden et al., 2018). Nesse âmbito, o nosso estudo tem como objetivo contribuir para a discussão e a resolução de problemas, analisando, em primeiro lugar, a literatura académica para integrar o corpo de conhecimentos existente a uma abordagem mais holística, procurando entender 1 / como as ferramentas e mecanismos específicos podem contribuir para superar as barreiras existentes entre a comunicação U-I e quais são as aplicações, os fatores de transferência e as condições; e 2 / identificar lacunas e deficiências no corpo de conhecimento que devem ser abordadas para permitir que quem deve tomar decisões e partes interessadas envolvidas gerem estratégias eficazes para maximizar a comunicação U-I para inovação. Além disso, a literatura geralmente sugere que a resolução requer estratégias modernas e a vários níveis, permitindo que a comunicação U-I ao nível macro - o nível relacionado ao sistema de políticas e inovação (Lee & Yoo, 2007; Ranga et al., 2008; D'Hooghe 2017; Hassen, 2018), e micro – o nível organizacional e de ferramentas relacionadas (Ranga et al ., 2008; Korzhenevskaya, 2014; Howarth & Monasterolo, 2016; Martins, 2016). Assim, seguimos com estudos empíricos de estratégias de nível macro e ferramentas facilitadoras de nível micro que permitem a comunicação U-I. Especificamente, abordamos a questão da necessidade postulada pela literatura de ajustes de estratégias aplicadas às condições socioeconómicas de regiões e nações (Vick & Nagano, 2018; Kim & Jang, 2019), analisando se as diferenças no impacto da comunicação U-I no desenvolvimento económico difere entre países a diferentes níveis de desenvolvimento, e se o potencial de intervenções específicas para estimular a comunicação U-I difere entre países dependendo com o seu desenvolvimento. Por outro lado, abordamos a necessidade de modernização das abordagens atuais, não apenas analisando mais estratégias, mas estratégias direcionadas, também analisando empiricamente o potencial e as condições do uso de soluções de grupos de trabalho (groupware) na comunicação entre organizações para não servir apenas como canal eficaz de comunicação, mas como ferramenta de facilitação para superar as barreiras organizacionais existentes. Reconhecendo a necessidade da inovação aberta para o modelo bidirecional e não linear de interação da U-I (Butcher & Jeffrey, 2005; Lauder & Atkinson-Grosjean 2011), a tese geral visa contribuir para estratégias de envolvimento dialógico da U-I no âmbito da inovação. A literatura atual concentra-se no problema da questão da comunicação da UI para inovação na fase de envolvimento até o primeiro projeto ser concluído (Plewa et al., 2013a). Enquanto isso, a inovação é um processo complexo que resulta de interações não lineares, processos de aprendizagem e colisões entre diferentes ideias, agentes, visões ou sistemas (Leydesdorff & Etzkowitz, 1998; Fields, 2006; Tidd & Bessant, 2014). Precisa, por um lado, de integrar os produtores de conhecimento e inovação e os proprietários de produtos - indústria e/ou universidade; com agentes responsáveis pelo ambiente e suporte à inovação - agentes de políticas, intermediários e cadeia de suplementos. Por outro lado, precisa de um fluxo constante e não linear de comunicação e interações para alimentar o mecanismo de inovação, considerando que a inovação geralmente acontece como resultado de interações inesperadas (Tidd & Bessant, 2014). Conforme apresentado por Levallois et al. (2019) o caso da criação de um novo campo de pesquisa de programas de neuromarketing, os benefícios postulados das interações U-I aumentam não apenas na comunicação U-I estruturada. Também a comunicação pura do progresso ou feedback básico pode estimular o desenvolvimento nas áreas de pesquisa e inovação. Por outro lado, a comunicação estruturada não pode ocorrer sem sistemas eficazes para estabelecer contactos iniciais e fornecer informações claras sobre os recursos potencialmente disponíveis entre parceiros (Ranga et al., 2008; Venditti et al., 2013). A comunicação tem forte inter-relação com a inovação, influenciando-a em todas as etapas. Desde colisões, convergência e divergência de ideias (Pendergast & Hayne, 1999; Shinn, 2005) até a fase de envolvimento contínuo, resultando em comunicação U-I sustentável para a inovação (Plewa et al., 2013a; Plewa et al., 2013b). Tal demonstra ser de importância crítica para qualquer forma ou estágio de interações inter-organizacionais. O que está a mudar é apenas a forma, formalidade e tópicos trocados (Plewa et al., 2013b). [.]

Full list of authors: Acharyya, A.; Adam, R.; Adams, C.; Agudo, I.; Aguirre-Santaella, A.; Alfaro, R.; Alfaro, J.; Alispach, C.; Aloisio, R.; Alves Batista, R.; Amati, L.; Ambrosi, G.; Angüner, E. O.; Antonelli, L. A.; Aramo, C.; Araudo, A.; Armstrong, T.; Arqueros, F.; Asano, K.; Ascasíbar, Y. Ashley, M.; Balazs, C.; Ballester, O.; Baquero Larriva, A.; Barbosa Martins, V.; Barkov, M.; Barres de Almeida, U.; Barrio, J. A.; Bastieri, D.; Becerra, J.; Beck, G.; Becker Tjus, J.; Benbow, W.; Benito, M.; Berge, D.; Bernardini, E.; Bernlöhr, K.; Berti, A.; Bertucci, B.; Beshley, V.; Biasuzzi, B.; Biland, A.; Bissaldi, E.; Biteau, J.; Blanch, O.; Blazek, J.; Bocchino, F.; Boisson, C.; Bonneau Arbeletche, L.; Bordas, P.; Bosnjak, Z.; Bottacini, E.; Bozhilov, V.; Bregeon, J.; Brill, A.; Bringmann, T.; Brown, A. M.; Brun, P.; Brun, F.; Bruno, P.; Bulgarelli, A.; Burton, M.; Burtovoi, A.; Buscemi, M.; Cameron, R.; Capasso, M.; Caproni, A.; Capuzzo-Dolcetta, R.; Caraveo, P.; Carosi, R.; Carosi, A.; Casanova, S.; Cascone, E.; Cassol, F.; Catalani, F.; Cauz, D.; Cerruti, M.; Chadwick, P.; Chaty, S.; Chen, A.; Chernyakova, M.; Chiaro, G.; Chiavassa, A.; Chikawa, M.; Chudoba, J.; Çolak, M.; Conforti, V.; Coniglione, R.; Conte, F.; Contreras, J. L.; Coronado-Blazquez, J.; Costa, A.; Costantini, H.; Cotter, G.; Cristofari, P.; D'Aimath, A.; D'Ammando, F.; Damone, L. A.; Daniel, M. K.; Dazzi, F.; De Angelis, A.; De Caprio, V.; de Cássia dos Anjos, R.; de Gouveia Dal Pino, E. M.; De Lotto, B.; De Martino, D.; de Oña Wilhelmi, E.; De Palma, F.; de Souza, V.; Delgado, C.; Delgado Giler, A. G.; della Volpe, D.; Depaoli, D.; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Pierro, F.; Di Venere, L.; Diebold, S.; Dmytriiev, A.; Domínguez, A.; Donini, A.; Doro, M.; Ebr, J.; Eckner, C.; Edwards, T. D. P.; Ekoume, T. R. N.; Elsässer, D.; Evoli, C.; Falceta-Goncalves, D.; Fedorova, E.; Fegan, S.; Feng, Q.; Ferrand, G.; Ferrara, G.; Fiandrini, E.; Fiasson, A.; Filipovic, M.; Fioretti, V.; Fiori, M.; Foffano, L.; Fontaine, G.; Fornieri, O.; Franco, F. J.; Fukami, S.; Fukui, Y.; Gaggero, D.; Galaz, G.; Gammaldi, V.; Garcia, E.; Garczarczyk, M.; Gascon, D.; Gent, A.; Ghalumyan, A.; Gianotti, F.; Giarrusso, M.; Giavitto, G.; Giglietto, N.; Giordano, F.; Giuliani, A.; Glicenstein, J.; Gnatyk, R.; Goldoni, P.; González, M. M.; Gourgouliatos, K.; Granot, J.; Grasso, D.; Green, J.; Grillo, A.; Gueta, O.; Gunji, S.; Halim, A.; Hassan, T.; Heller, M.; Hernández Cadena, S.; Hiroshima, N.; Hnatyk, B.; Hofmann, W.; Holder, J.; Horan, D.; Hörandel, J.; Horvath, P.; Hovatta, T.; Hrabovsky, M.; Hrupec, D.; Hughes, G.; Humensky, T. B.; Hütten, M.; Iarlori, M.; Inada, T.; Inoue, S.; Iocco, F.; Iori, M.; Jamrozy, M.; Janecek, P.; Jin, W.; Jouvin, L.; Jurysek, J.; Karukes, E.; Katarzyński, K.; Kazanas, D.; Kerszberg, D.; Kherlakian, M. C.; Kissmann, R.; Knödlseder, J.; Kobayashi, Y.; Kohri, K.; Komin, N.; Kubo, H.; Kushida, J.; Lamanna, G.; Lapington, J.; Laporte, P.; Leigui de Oliveira, M. A.; Lenain, J.; Leone, F.; Leto, G.; Lindfors, E.; Lohse, T.; Lombardi, S.; Longo, F.; Lopez, A.; López, M.; López-Coto, R.; Loporchio, S.; Luque-Escamilla, P. L.; Mach, E.; Maggio, C.; Maier, G.; Mallamaci, M.; Malta Nunes de Almeida, R.; Mandat, D.; Manganaro, M.; Mangano, S.; Manicò, G.; Marculewicz, M.; Mariotti, M.; Markoff, S.; Marquez, P.; Martí, J.; Martinez, O.; Martínez, M.; Martínez, G.; Martínez-Huerta, H.; Maurin, G.; Mazin, D.; Mbarubucyeye, J. D.; Medina Miranda, D.; Meyer, M.; Miceli, M.; Miener, T.; Minev, M.; Miranda, J. M.; Mirzoyan, R.; Mizuno, T.; Mode, B.; Moderski, R.; Mohrmann, L.; Molina, E.; Montaruli, T.; Moralejo, A.; Morcuende-Parrilla, D.; Morselli, A.; Mukherjee, R.; Mundell, C.; Nagai, A.; Nakamori, T.; Nemmen, R.; Niemiec, J.; Nieto, D.; Nikołajuk, M.; Ninci, D.; Noda, K.; Nosek, D.; Nozaki, S.; Ohira, Y.; Ohishi, M.; Ohtani, Y.; Oka, T.; Okumura, A.; Ong, R. A.; Orienti, M.; Orito, R.; Orlandini, M.; Orlando, S.; Orlando, E.; Ostrowski, M.; Oya, I.; Pagano, I.; Pagliaro, A.; Palatiello, M.; Pantaleo, F. R.; Paredes, J. M.; Pareschi, G.; Parmiggiani, N.; Patricelli, B.; Pavletić, L.; Pe'er, A.; Pecimotika, M.; Pérez-Romero, J.; Persic, M.; Petruk, O.; Pfrang, K.; Piano, G.; Piatteli, P.; Pietropaolo, E.; Pillera, R.; Pilszyk, B.; Pintore, F.; Pohl, M.; Poireau, V.; Prado, R. R.; Prandini, E.; Prast, J.; Principe, G.; Prokoph, H.; Prouza, M.; Przybilski, H.; Pühlhofer, G.; Pumo, M. L.; Queiroz, F.; Quirrenbach, A.; Rainò, S.; Rando, R.; Razzaque, S.; Recchia, S.; Reimer, O.; Reisenegger, A.; Renier, Y.; Rhode, W.; Ribeiro, D.; Ribó, M.; Richtler, T.; Rico, J.; Rieger, F.; Rinchiuso, L.; Rizi, V.; Rodriguez, J.; Rodriguez Fernandez, G.; Rodriguez Ramirez, J. C.; Rojas, G.; Romano, P.; Romeo, G.; Rosado, J.; Rowell, G.; Rudak, B.; Russo, F.; Sadeh, I.; Sæther Hatlen, E.; Safi-Harb, S.; Salesa Greus, F.; Salina, G.; Sanchez, D.; Sánchez-Conde, M.; Sangiorgi, P.; Sano, H.; Santander, M.; Santos, E. M.; Santos-Lima, R.; Sanuy, A.; Sarkar, S.; Saturni, F. G.; Sawangwit, U.; Schussler, F.; Schwanke, U.; Sciacca, E.; Scuderi, S.; Seglar-Arroyo, M.; Sergijenko, O.; Servillat, M.; Seweryn, K.; Shalchi, A.; Sharma, P.; Shellard, R. C.; Siejkowski, H.; Silk, J.; Siqueira, C.; Sliusar, V.; Słowikowska, A.; Sokolenko, A.; Sol, H.; Spencer, S.; Stamerra, A.; Stanič, S.; Starling, R.; Stolarczyk, T.; Straumann, U.; Strišković, J.; Suda, Y.; Suomijarvi, T.; Świerk, P.; Tavecchio, F.; Taylor, L.; Tejedor, L. A.; Teshima, M.; Testa, V.; Tibaldo, L.; Todero Peixoto, C. J.; Tokanai, F.; Tonev, D.; Tosti, G.; Tosti, L.; Tothill, N.; Truzzi, S.; Travnicek, P.; Vagelli, V.; Vallage, B.; Vallania, P.; van Eldik, C.; Vandenbroucke, J.; Varner, G. S.; Vassiliev, V.; Vázquez Acosta, M.; Vecchi, M.; Ventura, S.; Vercellone, S.; Vergani, S.; Verna, G.; Viana, A.; Vigorito, C. F.; Vink, J.; Vitale, V.; Vorobiov, S.; Vovk, I.; Vuillaume, T.; Wagner, S. J.; Walter, R.; Watson, J.; Weniger, C.; White, R.; White, M.; Wiemann, R.; Wierzcholska, A.; Will, M.; Williams, D. A.; Wischnewski, R.; Yanagita, S.; Yang, L.; Yoshikoshi, T.; Zacharias, M.; Zaharijas, G.; Zakaria, A. A.; Zampieri, L.; Zanin, R.; Zaric, D.; Zavrtanik, M.; Zavrtanik, D.; Zdziarski, A. A.; Zech, A.; Zechlin, H.; Zhdanov, V. I.; Živec, M.--Published by IOP Publishing Ltd on behalf of Sissa Medialab. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. ; We provide an updated assessment of the power of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) to search for thermally produced dark matter at the TeV scale, via the associated gamma-ray signal from pair-annihilating dark matter particles in the region around the Galactic centre. We find that CTA will open a new window of discovery potential, significantly extending the range of robustly testable models given a standard cuspy profile of the dark matter density distribution. Importantly, even for a cored profile, the projected sensitivity of CTA will be sufficient to probe various well-motivated models of thermally produced dark matter at the TeV scale. This is due to CTA's unprecedented sensitivity, angular and energy resolutions, and the planned observational strategy. The survey of the inner Galaxy will cover a much larger region than corresponding previous observational campaigns with imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. CTA will map with unprecedented precision the large-scale diffuse emission in high-energy gamma rays, constituting a background for dark matter searches for which we adopt state-of-the-art models based on current data. Throughout our analysis, we use up-to-date event reconstruction Monte Carlo tools developed by the CTA consortium, and pay special attention to quantifying the level of instrumental systematic uncertainties, as well as background template systematic errors, required to probe thermally produced dark matter at these energies. © 2021 The Author(s). ; We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the following agencies and organisations: State Committee of Science of Armenia, Armenia; The Australian Research Council, Astronomy Australia Ltd, The University of Adelaide, Australian National University, Monash University, The University of New South Wales, The University of Sydney, Western Sydney University, Australia; Federal Ministry of Education, Science and Research, and Innsbruck University, Austria; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq), Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ), Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP), Ministry of Science, Technology, Innovations and Communications (MCTIC), and Instituto Serrapilheira, Brasil; Ministry of Education and Science, National RI Roadmap Project DO1-153/28.08.2018, Bulgaria; The Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Canadian Space Agency, Canada; CONICYT-Chile grants CATA AFB 170002, ANID PIA/APOYO AFB 180002, ACT 1406, FONDECYT-Chile grants, 1161463, 1170171, 1190886, 1171421, 1170345, 1201582, Gemini-ANID 32180007, Chile; Croatian Science Foundation, Rudjer Boskovic Institute, University of Osijek, University of Rijeka, University of Split, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, Croatia; Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports, MEYS LM2015046, LM2018105, LTT17006, EU/MEYS CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_013/0001403, CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/18_046/0016007 and CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000754, Czech Republic; Academy of Finland (grant nr.317636, 320045, 317383 and 320085), Finland; Ministry of Higher Education and Research, CNRS-INSU and CNRS-IN2P3, CEA-Irfu, ANR, Regional Council Ile de France, Labex ENIGMASS, OSUG2020, P2IO and OCEVU, France; Max Planck Society, BMBF, DESY, Helmholtz Association, Germany; Department of Atomic Energy, Department of Science and Technology, India; Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica (INAF), Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), MIUR, Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica (INAF-OABRERA) Grant Fondazione Cariplo/Regione Lombardia ID 2014-1980/RST_ERC, Italy; ICRR, University of Tokyo, JSPS, MEXT, Japan; Netherlands Research School for Astronomy (NOVA), Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), Netherlands; University of Oslo, Norway; Ministry of Science and Higher Education, DIR/WK/2017/12, the National Centre for Research and Development and the National Science Centre, UMO-2016/22/M/ST9/00583, Poland; Slovenian Research Agency, grants P1-0031, P1-0385, I0-0033, J1-9146, J1-1700, N1-0111, and the Young Researcher program, Slovenia; South African Department of Science and Technology and National Research Foundation through the South African Gamma-Ray Astronomy Programme, South Africa; The Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and the Spanish Research State Agency (AEI) through grants AYA2016-79724-C4-1-P, AYA2016-80889-P, AYA2016-76012-C3-1-P, BES-2016-076342, ESP2017-87055-C2-1-P, FPA2017-82729-C6-1-R, FPA2017-82729-C6-2-R, FPA2017-82729-C6-3-R, FPA2017-82729-C6-4-R, FPA2017-82729-C6-5-R, FPA2017-82729-C6-6-R, PGC2018-095161-B-I00, PGC2018-095512-B-I00; the \Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa"program through grants no. SEV-2015-0548, SEV-2016-0597, SEV-2016-0588, SEV-2017-0709; the "Unidad de Excelencia Maria de Maeztu" program through grant no. MDM-2015-0509; the "Ramon y Cajal" programme through grants RYC-2013-14511, RyC-2013-14660, RYC-2017-22665; and the MultiDark Consolider Network FPA2017-90566-REDC. Atraccion de Talento contract no. 2016-T1/TIC-1542 granted by the Comunidad de Madrid; the "Postdoctoral Junior Leader Fellowship" programme from La Caixa Banking Foundation, grants no. LCF/BQ/LI18/11630014 and LCF/BQ/PI18/11630012; the "Programa Operativo" FEDER2014-2020, Consejeria de Economia y Conocimiento de la Junta de Andalucia (ref. 1257737), PAIDI 2020 (ref. P18-FR-1580), and Universidad de Jaen; the Spanish AEI EQC2018-005094-P FEDER 2014-2020; the European Union's "Horizon 2020" research and innovation programme under Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 665919; and the ESCAPE project with grant no. GA:824064, Spain; Swedish Research Council, Royal Physiographic Society of Lund, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, The Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at Lunarc (Lund), Sweden; State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation (SERI) and Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF), Switzerland; Durham University, Leverhulme Trust, Liverpool University, University of Leicester, University of Oxford, Royal Society, Science and Technology Facilities Council, U.K.; U.S. National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Energy, Argonne National Laboratory, Barnard College, University of California, University of Chicago, Columbia University, Georgia Institute of Technology, Institute for Nuclear and Particle Astrophysics (INPAC-MRPI program), Iowa State University, the Smithsonian Institution, Washington University McDonnell Center for the Space Sciences, The University of Wisconsin and the Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation, U.S.A. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreements No 262053 and No 317446. This project is receiving funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programs under agreement No 676134. ; Peer reviewed

El aspecto central y objeto de esta investigación es el análisis, a través de un estudio de caso, de los procesos por los cuales se genera un tipo de acción colectiva denominada "movimiento social", a partir de una realidad social dada en la que no existía, así como los mecanismos por medio de los cuales las personas pasan a movilizarse e implicarse en él. A este conjunto de procesos, McAdam, McCarthy y Zald (1999: 24) lo denominaban "estructuras de movilización", aproximación teórica que derivó en la construcción de lo que acabó conociéndose como "Teoría de Movilización de Recursos" (McCarthy y Zald, 1973, 1977, Kriesi, 1988, McAdam, 1986, replicado por Nepstad y Smith, 1999). McAdam (1999: 447) realiza una aportación en torno a las condiciones que debe cumplir un movimiento social para que impacte en la sociedad. La primera estriba en conseguir nuevos miembros; la segunda, en evitar la fuga de los ya presentes, a través del compromiso y la moral; la tercera, en conseguir una apoyo mediático, que en la actualidad debería incluir todo lo relacionado con las redes sociales; la cuarta, en conseguir el apoyo de grupos externos a él, como otros movimientos sociales o estructuras y organizaciones preexistentes; la quinta, en evitar todos estos elementos anteriores en sus adversarios; y, finalmente, la sexta, en influir sobre las estructuras políticas y conseguir que las administraciones tomen decisiones y medidas en la dirección que propone el movimiento. El primero y el cuarto de los aspectos comentados por McAdam constituyen el objeto central de este estudio. Para desarrollar esta idea principal ha sido necesario aplicar una aproximación al estudio de la génesis de los movimientos sociales desde una perspectiva muy particular: aquella que hace referencia a la formación inicial y al momento en el que da los primeros pasos y va ampliando su base social a través de las interacciones y redes sociales en las que participan otros movimientos y/u organizaciones e individuos a título particular. En esta fase, la presencia de las redes sociales se convierte en una herramienta de interpretación imprescindible, que hace posible comprender cómo determinados movimientos y organizaciones sociales preexistentes permiten la generación de un nuevo movimiento social y cómo, a la vez, casi al mismo tiempo, se va ampliando su base social, especialmente, en función de su capacidad para atraer e incorporar a personas que hasta el momento de la aparición del movimiento social en cuestión, nunca antes habían participado en ninguno otro. Ubicando el estudio en el marco de la teoría de los movimientos sociales, se trataría de dar respuestas a la pregunta ¿cuándo se activa un movimiento social?, centrándose el estudio no tanto en los condicionantes contextuales (en cuanto a estructura de oportunidades políticas) o ideológicos, sino en el papel que juegan las redes sociales (preexistentes y generadas) en la configuración de un nuevo movimiento social. Para abordar estas cuestiones se ha focalizado el estudio en un caso concreto: la génesis de Ganemos Zaragoza (que luego derivó en Zaragoza en Común, en adelante: GZ/ZeC), proceso que se inició en el verano de 2014 y que finalizó con la celebración de las elecciones municipales de mayo de 2015. La importancia de esta investigación estriba en que se adentra en una cuestión clave en el estudio de los movimientos sociales desde una perspectiva sociológica: se trata de proponer estrategias científicas (teóricas y metodológicas) orientadas a dar una respuesta adecuada a la comprensión de cómo emergen ese tipo de acciones colectivas que, algunas contadas veces, tienen como resultado impactos en las estructuras sociales, hasta el punto de llegar a cambiarlas (Giugni, 1998, 2004; Funes y Adell, 2003). El análisis de los impactos de los movimientos sociales en lo instituido, visto tanto desde el punto de vista de los aspectos estructurales de lo social como de las instituciones que le dan forma, se ha convertido en el objeto de muchas investigaciones (desde la ya lejana aproximación de Schumaker, 1975: 494-495 a, entre otros, Andrews, 1997; Casquette, 1998: 205 y ss.; McAdam, McCarthy y Zald, 1999: 477; Burstein y Linton, 2002; Ibarra, Martí y Gomà, 2002; Doménech et al., 2002; Glenn, 2003; della Porta, 2004; Jiménez, 2005; Keefe, Lane y Swarts, 2006; Calle, 2007: 141 y ss.; della Porta y Diani, 2011, 285 y ss.; Campos y Ávila-García, 2013). Sin embargo, en algunos casos se ha desnaturalizado el análisis de los impactos al enfocar su objetivo en un eufemismo ("éxito" o "fracaso" de los movimientos), lo que percibimos especialmente en los desarrollos de la teoría sobre las estructuras de oportunidades políticas utilizadas por autores como Tilly (1991), McAdam (1999), Tarrow (1997) o Kriesi (1988), que se han centrado más en comprender cómo inciden las estructuras en los movimientos que en el fenómeno contrario. Tampoco han ayudado mucho las aproximaciones dirigidas a analizar la capacidad que poseen los movimientos sociales de generar discursos e interpretaciones de la realidad social diferentes a la dominante en un sistema social dado (Touraine, 1978; Melucci, 1989; Snow et al., 1986), o bien centradas en observar el cambio de las relaciones en el interior de los movimientos (della Porta y Diani, 2011: 130 y ss.), puesto que han olvidado la dimensión más estructural y macro de los impactos. Como forma de dar respuesta a estas carencias, en la presente investigación queremos retrotraernos al momento inicial del nacimiento de los movimientos sociales, lo que nos permitirá, de una parte, ofrecer una respuesta integral, que sintetice las aproximaciones macro y micro, y, de otra parte, demostrar que los movimientos no nacen "ex-novo" de una realidad dada, sino que se edifican sobre las estructuras sociales preexistentes, dándoles, a través de las relaciones y redes sociales que se generan, una nueva materialidad. Podría decirse que uno de los axiomas subyacentes de la investigación es que los movimientos sociales (entendidos como una nueva red social) nacen en situaciones sociales "enredadas". Esta idea es sintetizada por Mees, cuando afirma que "todos los movimientos sociales en su tiempo son nuevos y viejos a la vez" (1998: 317). En este sentido, puede concluirse que este estudio pretende, en cierta medida, conocer qué hay de viejo en lo nuevo, en el caso de Ganemos Zaragoza. Del objetivo general citado en el primer párrafo se derivan una serie de objetivos específicos, que se describen a continuación: - Identificar las redes preexistentes que permitieron la articulación de GZ/ZeC - Conocer el proceso de articulación de esas redes para dar vida a GZ/ZeC - Comprender el papel que jugó el 15M en el nacimiento de GZ/ZeC - Desvelar el papel que jugaron las redes de diferente tipo en las distintas fases del proceso, especialmente en el momento en el que se produce el desborde La aproximación metodológica es muy concreta: el estudio de caso. El estudio de caso se incluye dentro de las tradiciones de investigación cualitativa, pero se diferencia del resto de perspectivas que también forman parte de ella (biográfica, fenomenológica, teoría fundamentada y etnografía) en varios aspectos y, en concreto, en que en lo referido al estudio de caso, los procedimientos para alcanzar la validez son dos (según Stake 2005). Por un lado, la triangulación, consistente en la aplicación de múltiples técnicas de investigación en un mismo caso (Ayoub, Wallace and Zepeda-Millán 2014). Y por otro, la confirmación de los participantes, es decir, que los participantes en el caso estudiado se vean reflejados en las conclusiones extraídas de la investigación. Ambos procedimientos han sido criticados pero, con todo, siguen siendo los criterios más pertinentes para validar los estudios de caso. En consecuencia, para estudiar la génesis de GZ, se ha procedido a aplicar diferentes técnicas de investigación en función de los niveles objeto de análisis: análisis de documentación, páginas web, actas, etc.: siete entrevistas semidirigidas a informantes clave y una encuesta estadística representativa. Las entrevistas se focalizaron en aquellos agentes que tuvieron un protagonismo en las primeras fases del movimiento y que permitieron abrir el campo de investigación, así como el conocimiento de las redes preexistentes que habían formado parte de este movimiento y la obtención de información de las relaciones con otros movimientos similares que se estaban produciendo en otras ciudades españolas (fundamentalmente, Barcelona y Madrid). Respecto a la encuesta es preciso hacer algunas aclaraciones para encuadrar adecuadamente el análisis posterior. GZ posee varias listas de personas dadas de alta, en función de su nivel de vinculación a la organización. Para la realización del estudio se escogió la lista "Municipalismo", que se creó en los primeros momentos de vida de GZ y a la que se iban sumando todas las personas que se vinculaban al movimiento, procedentes de diferentes vías de captación. Fue especialmente importante en la gestación, consolidación y desborde de GZ, y es considerada como la lista principal y básica que incluye a las "fuerzas vivas de GZ". En ella se encontraban inscritas 554 personas (a 1 de junio de 2015). La muestra que finalmente contestó fue de 253, con lo que se obtuvo un margen de error del +/- 4,5% y un nivel de confianza del 95%. A este conjunto de personas se les pasó un cuestionario cuya administración fue on-line. Por lo tanto, la encuesta fue "autoadministrada" y su diseño tuvo en consideración los requisitos de esta modalidad de administración de cuestionarios (Díaz de Rada 2012: 195). Respecto a la validación de los resultados, se celebró un grupo de trabajo con ocho personas que reunían las siguientes condiciones: que hubiesen estado inscritas en la Lista de Municipalismo antes del 31 de octubre de 2014; que representasen una variedad de perfiles respecto a su pertenencia previa a organizaciones presentes en la génesis de GZ/ZeC. En la sesión de trabajo se procedió a la presentación de las principales conclusiones de la investigación, se abrió un debate en el que contrastaron sus impresiones y, posteriormente, respondieron de forma anónima a un breve cuestionario compuesto por ocho preguntas, cada una de las cuales centrada en una conclusión de la investigación. La valoración de los participantes (podían puntuar cada pregunta entre 1 y 5) arroja unos valores medios que se sitúan, en todas ellas, entre el "4" y el "5", con lo que la media global alcanza un valor de "4,45". En la primera parte del informe se aborda el reto de explicitar los prerrequisitos que permiten entender los movimientos sociales como una de las expresiones posibles de lo instituyente. Y se comprueba que son las relaciones sociales, y las redes sociales que forman, las que permiten identificar el motor de lo social que hace posible el engranaje de lo macro y lo micro y, paralelamente, posee el potencial causal que explica la génesis de lo social. La segunda parte está dedicada a presentar los aspectos metodológicos de la investigación, haciendo una reflexión especial en torno al análisis de caso en el ámbito concreto de los movimientos sociales. La parte tercera está destinada a realizar un análisis de Ganemos Zaragoza y su evolución, así como de los actores y redes que participaron en su nacimiento. En este sentido, hay un apartado especial centrado en el análisis de la incidencia del movimiento 15M en todo el entramado relacional y organizativo de la ciudad de Zaragoza y su influencia en el movimiento que estamos estudiando. La parte cuarta se dedica al estudio de los resultados de una encuesta que se realizó al grupo promotor de Ganemos Zaragoza, así como a ofrecer un análisis de las redes que intervinieron en su nacimiento y las formas en las que se articularon. En este caso, se realiza un análisis estadístico de redes, partiendo de la pertenencia de los individuos de la muestra a cada una de las redes que estuvieron presentes en el nacimiento de Ganemos Zaragoza, lo que permite confeccionar una tipología que identifica cuatro clústeres que se corresponde con la agrupación de individuos que han tenido una "carrera organizativa" similar. Esos cuatro clústeres identificados con los han sido los siguientes: - Clúster "Movimientos reivindicativos": que gira en torno a la Marea Verde (V) y las Asociaciones de Vecinos (AV). Otras redes significativas son la Marea Negra (N) y la Blanca (Bl). - Clúster "Nueva izquierda": Movimientos Ecologistas (E) y Podemos (POD). - Clúster "Izquierda tradicional": Izquierda Unida (IU) y Comisiones Obreras (C). - Clúster de "No asociados", previamente definido por aquellos individuos que no participaban de redes antes de su incorporación a Ganemos Zaragoza (o que pertenecían a redes minoritarias sin interconexión con otras). Finalmente, la última parte se centra en ofrecer las conclusiones de la tesis.

En cuanto al esquema capitular, la siguiente investigación está divida en cuatro capítulos. En el primero se presenta el marco teórico que sustenta la relevancia del análisis de las políticas, por medio del estudio de las diferentes investigaciones que a lo largo de la historia reciente han permitido la evolución del concepto de políticas públicas, así como los diferentes enfoques y miradas para su análisis, los cuales permiten dar soporte y servir de apoyo para la toma de decisiones de los organismos gubernamentales, legitimados para ejercer dicha función. Se hace un repaso por los diferentes pensamientos, que desde el ámbito internacional hasta el nacional, han puesto en el centro del análisis a las políticas públicas y en especial al neoinstitucionalismo como enfoque escogido para el análisis de políticas. Después se realiza una breve explicación sobre los factores que inciden en el cambio de las políticas públicas, como categoría de análisis de los estudios recientes en la materia. En el segundo capítulo se pretende exponer diferentes nociones de la juventud como objeto de análisis para las políticas públicas, intentando con ello, en primera medida generar un acercamiento a la definición del concepto, los diferentes significados y realidades que se le atribuyen, con el fin de generar la preocupación por su estudio y abordaje. En una segunda sección, se realiza una exploración de la evolución de los diferentes marcos normativos e institucionales que se han desarrollado desde la segunda mitad del siglo XX, para establecer lineamientos y estrategias que desde el orden internacional se han generado para permitir el desarrollo juvenil e impulsar la inserción de este grupo poblacional en los escenarios nacionales y regionales para la toma de decisiones. En el tercer capítulo, en primera medida se realizará una exploración de los planes de desarrollo de las últimas siete administraciones, empezando por el gobierno del alcalde Jaime Rodríguez Ballesteros hasta la fecha. En cada uno de ellos se hace un recuento de los diferentes planes, programas y proyectos para el abordaje de la problemática de la juventud en Bucaramanga. Luego se efectúa una descripción de la normatividad que en el periodo de análisis se ha desarrollado para dar impulso a las iniciativas de desarrollo juvenil de las diferentes administraciones. Seguidamente se realiza un recuento de los avances alcanzados por los últimos gobiernos en la construcción e implementación de la Política Pública de Juventud de Bucaramanga. Por último, se hace una descripción del proceso de aprobación del último plan de desarrollo municipal, específicamente en las estrategias aprobadas en el documento definitivo del plan con relación a la temática de juventud. El cuarto capítulo se divide en dos secciones. En la primera se realiza un análisis desde el enfoque neoinstitucional de los diferentes actores institucionales que coexisten alrededor de la Política Pública de Juventud de Bucaramanga y el análisis de las decisiones públicas que han sido adoptados por los diferentes gobiernos. Para adelantar este proceso, se definen algunas categorías de análisis tales como: la evolución del marco normativo alrededor de la política de juventud, el análisis de los mecanismos establecidos por el gobierno municipal para fortalecer el proceso de la política, el análisis de la articulación institucional de las diferentes instituciones formales e informales, el análisis del subsistema institucional y de participación de la juventud, establecidos en la Ley Estatutaria 1622 de 2013, la puesta en marcha de la normatividad vigente en materia de juventud y por último, se efectúa un análisis de los mecanismos de difusión y flujo de información utilizados por la administración municipal en el marco del proceso de la Política Pública de Juventud de Bucaramanga. En la segunda sección, producto de la revisión del marco teórico, contextual y normativo en el que se desarrolla la temática de la juventud de Bucaramanga, así como del análisis basado en el enfoque neoinstitucional de la Política Pública de Juventud de Bucaramanga, se establece la propuesta de articulación institucional para el fortalecimiento de la Política de Juventud en el municipio de Bucaramanga. En esta, se realizan una serie de proposiciones para el mejoramiento del funcionamiento de los diferentes mecanismos del Sistema Municipal de Juventudes planteados en la Ley Estatutaria 1622 de 2013, en cuanto a los subsistemas institucional, de participación, concertación y decisión, así como de las estancias de planeación y definición de la agenda pública de juventud. Se plantea la revisión de la Ruta Metodológica para la Construcción e Implementación de la Política Pública de Juventud de Bucaramanga y la reglamentación en materia de juventud generada en el municipio de Bucaramanga. Por último, se toman como referencia las estrategias para la implementación de la Política Pública de Juventud desarrolladas en la ciudad de Medellín, como modelo de gestión pública y administrativa para el abordaje de los temas de juventud en la ciudad de Bucaramanga. Para cerrar, se generan las conclusiones producto del proceso de análisis que, desde el enfoque neoinstitucional, fue adelantado tomando como referencia el proceso de la Política de Juventud en el municipio de Bucaramanga y se establecen algunas reflexiones y consideraciones sobre las decisiones públicas adelantadas por la nueva administración para dar cumplimiento a las etapas del proceso de construcción e implementación de la Política Publica de Juventud de Bucaramanga. ; INTRODUCCIÓN ix 1 Los enfoques de análisis, concepto y factores de cambio de las políticas públicas 1 1.1 Los Enfoques de análisis 1 1.1.1 La importancia del análisis de políticas públicas 2 1.1.2 Evolución de los enfoques de análisis de políticas públicas 4 1.1.3 El neoinstitucionalismo como enfoque de análisis de políticas 8 1.2 El concepto de política pública 31 1.3 Factores de cambio en las políticas públicas 37 2 La política pública de juventud 40 2.1 La juventud como sujeto construido socialmente 40 2.2 Marco normativo e institucional 52 2.2.1 Contexto internacional 52 2.2.2 Contexto nacional 60 2.2.3 Contexto regional 71 3 Análisis de la Política Pública de Juventud en el municipio de Bucaramanga 77 3.1 La juventud en los Planes de Desarrollo Municipales 78 3.1.1 Gobierno de Jaime Rodríguez Ballesteros (1992-1994) 79 3.1.2 Gobierno de Carlos Arturo Ibáñez Muñoz (1995-1997) 80 3.1.3 Gobierno de Luis Fernando Cote Peña (1998-2000) 81 3.1.4 Gobierno de Néstor Iván Moreno Rojas (2001-2003) 82 3.1.5 Gobierno de Honorio Galvis Aguilar (2004-2007) 84 3.1.6 Gobierno de Fernando Vargas Mendoza (2008-2011) 85 3.1.7 Gobierno de Luis Francisco Bohórquez Pedraza (2012-2015) 87 3.2 Marco Normativo Municipal 89 3.3 Proceso de construcción de la Política Pública de Juventud de Bucaramanga 95 3.3.1 Ruta para la construcción de la Política Pública de Juventud de Bucaramanga 96 3.4 Los jóvenes en la agenda pública actual del municipio de Bucaramanga 105 3.4.1 La juventud dentro del Plan de Desarrollo 2016-2019 106 4 Análisis neoinstitucional y propuesta de articulación para la Política Pública de Juventud de Bucaramanga 116 4.1 Análisis de las instituciones involucradas en la política pública de juventud de Bucaramanga 116 4.2 Propuesta de articulación institucional para el fortalecimiento de la Política Pública de Juventud en el municipio de Bucaramanga. 130 5 Conclusiones 144 6 Referencias Bibliográficas 150 ANEXOS 163 ; Maestría ; As for the chapter scheme, the following investigation is divided into four chapters. The first presents the theoretical framework that supports the relevance of policy analysis, through the study of the different investigations that throughout recent history have allowed the evolution of the concept of public policies, as well as the different approaches and looks for its analysis, which allow to give support and serve as support for the decision-making of the governmental organisms, legitimized to exercise this function. A review is made of the different thoughts, which, from the international to the national sphere, have put public policies at the center of the analysis and especially neo-institutionalism as the chosen approach for policy analysis. Then a brief explanation is made about the factors that influence the change of public policies, as a category of analysis of recent studies on the matter. In the second chapter it is intended to expose different notions of youth as an object of analysis for public policies, trying with this, first of all, to generate an approach to the definition of the concept, the different meanings and realities that are attributed to it, in order to to generate concern for its study and approach. In a second section, an exploration of the evolution of the different normative and institutional frameworks that have been developed since the second half of the twentieth century is carried out, to establish guidelines and strategies that have been generated from the international order to allow youth development and promote the insertion of this population group in national and regional scenarios for decision-making. In the third chapter, in the first step, an exploration of the development plans of the last seven administrations will be carried out, starting with the government of Mayor Jaime Rodríguez Ballesteros to date. In each of them a recount is made of the different plans, programs and projects to address the problem of youth in Bucaramanga. Then a description is made of the regulations that have been developed in the period of analysis to give impetus to the youth development initiatives of the different administrations. Next, a recount is made of the progress made by the last governments in the construction and implementation of the Bucaramanga Youth Public Policy. Finally, a description is made of the approval process of the last municipal development plan, specifically in the strategies approved in the final document of the plan in relation to the youth issue. The fourth chapter is divided into two sections. In the first, an analysis is carried out from the neo-institutional approach of the different institutional actors that coexist around the Bucaramanga Youth Public Policy and the analysis of the public decisions that have been adopted by the different governments. To advance this process, some categories of analysis are defined, such as: the evolution of the regulatory framework around youth policy, the analysis of the mechanisms established by the municipal government to strengthen the policy process, the analysis of institutional articulation of the different formal and informal institutions, the analysis of the institutional and youth participation subsystem, established in Statutory Law 1622 of 2013, the implementation of the current regulations on youth matters, and finally, an analysis of the the mechanisms for dissemination and flow of information used by the municipal administration in the framework of the Bucaramanga Youth Public Policy process. In the second section, as a result of the review of the theoretical, contextual and normative framework in which the theme of the youth of Bucaramanga is developed, as well as the analysis based on the neo-institutional approach of the Public Policy of Youth of Bucaramanga, the Institutional articulation proposal to strengthen the Youth Policy in the municipality of Bucaramanga. In this, a series of proposals are made to improve the functioning of the different mechanisms of the Municipal Youth System proposed in Statutory Law 1622 of 2013, in terms of the institutional subsystems, of participation, agreement and decision, as well as of the planning stays and definition of the public youth agenda. The revision of the Methodological Route for the Construction and Implementation of the Bucaramanga Youth Public Policy and the youth regulations generated in the Bucaramanga municipality are proposed. Finally, the strategies for the implementation of the Public Youth Policy developed in the city of Medellín are taken as a reference, as a model of public and administrative management for addressing youth issues in the city of Bucaramanga. To close, the conclusions are generated as a result of the analysis process that, from the neo-institutional approach, was advanced taking as a reference the process of the Youth Policy in the municipality of Bucaramanga and some reflections and considerations are established on the public decisions made by the new administration to comply with the stages of the construction and implementation process of the Bucaramanga Youth Public Policy.

Algunas de las cuestiones que consideramos es necesario conocer y comprenderrespecto de la formación inicial de los profesores, nos retrotraen a revisar la historia quetransita dicho proceso desde el advenimiento de la democracia. Desde la década del 80,se han escrito textos de revisión, adecuación e innovación respecto de las estructurasy diseños para la formación del profesorado de ciencias, coincidente muchas veces conotras experiencias ibero-americanas y europeas y que, además, han sido una preocupaciónsostenida para ADBiA.Hoy en Argentina nuevamente el sistema de educación superior sufre un procesode revisión de los currículos para los profesorados en pos de su fortalecimiento. Tanto laspolíticas educativas nacionales como provinciales apuntan a ello y elaboran sus propuestasbuscando consensos.La docencia, tal como lo expresan diferentes documentos, es una profesión y untrabajo que tiene como tarea central la enseñanza de determinados contenidos curriculares.Constituye un proceso complejo que involucra decisiones acerca de qué enseñar, cómohacerlo y para qué, considerando la especificidad de los objetos de conocimiento a serenseñados (en nuestro caso la Biología), los contextos en los que tiene lugar la enseñanzay las características de los sujetos de aprendizaje.Como sabemos, en Argentina existen dos Subsistemas de Nivel Superior parala formación de profesores, con dos historias y trayectorias particulares, con algunastensiones ideológicas y curriculares. Por un lado, tenemos los profesorados universitarios,cuyos lineamientos generales para la formación docente hoy están siendo revisados a laluz de los estándares delimitados por el CIN 1 (2013) y trabajados desde el CUCEN 2 (2011),en el marco de las Políticas Nacionales. Por otro lado, los profesorados no universitariosque se estructuran en cada Jurisdicción y que re-definen sus propuestas de transformacióncurricular también en base a los lineamientos de la Política Nacional de Formación Docente (Ley de Educación Nacional 26.206/06) y de lo delineado desde el Instituto Nacional deFormación Docente (INFD). Respecto a los aportes del CUCEN y algunas implicaciones enla formación de profesores de Biología, fueron analizadas en una editorial anterior de estarevista (Rassetto, 2012).Luego de la aclaración anterior, consideramos que se plantean en este tema unconjunto de tensiones:- La formación que debe tener un docente se organiza curricularmente encuatro agrupamientos o campos de saberes, lo cual constituye una de las tensionesmedulares queencontró consenso. Dicha organización se presenta campos quedelimitan configuraciones epistemológicas que integran distintos contenidos disciplinariosy se diferencian no sólo por las perspectivas teóricas que incluyen, sino también por losniveles de amplitud y las metodologías con que se aborda su objeto, tal como lo expresael documento del CUCEN (2011).El campo de la FORMACIÓN GENERAL aborda las principales líneas de pensamiento,enfoques y perspectivas disciplinares que ayudan a la comprensión de la situacionalidadde los sujetos, de la realidad social y del conocimiento. Este campo es nuevo para muchosprofesorados y aporta un contexto referencial fundamental para desarrollar el oficio de serdocente (Perrenou, 2007). Está pensado para promover una sólida formación humanísticade participación en la cultura, el tiempo y el contexto histórico e institucional, donde dichodocente desarrollará su práctica educativa y su formación profesional continua. Al respecto,cabe destacar la inclusión en este campo de saberes asociados a diferentes lenguajesy prácticas comunicativas que habiliten a entender la diversidad cultural, así como lavariedad de representaciones que se tienen. Este argumento es de marcada importanciapara la Biología, por las ricas fronteras que posee el ámbito conceptual de esta disciplina,como son etnobotánica, antropología, biotecnología, bio-fisica, biomedicina, neurociencia,educación para la salud, educación ambiental, entre otras. Se hace necesario entender lahistoria social y cultural y en ella los procesos educativos y los saberes de biología.El campo de FORMACIÓN PEDAGÓGICA refiere a los diferentes desempeños para eldiseño, implementación y evaluación de proyectos pedagógicos, curriculares, institucionalesy de gestión educativa. Son saberes que retoman los marcos sociopolíticos educativose institucionales, problemáticas curriculares, procesos de enseñanza y de aprendizaje.También incluyen, según el documento del CUCEN (2011), la investigación educativaentendida como una práctica de indagación y reflexión transformadora desde diversosenfoques y perspectivas teóricas y metodológicas. A nuestro juicio, con este aporte,este campo integra a la perspectiva tradicional de la formación llamada generalmente"lo pedagógico-didáctico" la propuesta de un profesional que atienda a criterios deinvestigación e innovación de las prácticas, concepción para cual sobran desde hace variosaños, múltiples referenciales teóricos.El campo de la FORMACIÓN DISCIPLINAR ESPECÍFICA incluye saberes de la disciplinaobjeto de enseñanza. Como expresan los documentos, se atiende a la contextualización,la lógica y la legitimación del conocimiento disciplinar, así como los desarrollos científicosy técnicos propios de la disciplina. Es decir, la articulación entre dicho campo disciplinar,su contexto de producción y su contribución al abordaje de las problemáticas actuales.Este ámbito constituye para nosotras un verdadero desafío para los docentes de lasdisciplinas en los profesorados, dado que surge aquí la necesidad de atender críticamenteal conocimiento didáctico del contenido (CDC) (Shulman, 1986) y a brindar también unaformación práctica propia de cada tema. Esto nos lleva a pensar en la necesidad de lapreparación de los formadores de formadores disciplinares en el CDC. A modo de ejemplo,nos podemos preguntar si es lo mismo enseñar Genética, Ecología, Evolución, Fisiología oSalud, o si son iguales sus procesos de construcción de conocimiento, de investigación osu impacto social.Desde la investigación en Educación en Ciencias actualmente se pondera que engeneral el docente sigue haciendo énfasis en el qué enseñar, dejando de lado la referenciaexplícita a los procesos de producción del conocimiento, los modelos explicativos a lo largode la historia y las contradicciones éticas en los vínculos Ciencia-Tecnología-Sociedad (CYS)(Mathews, 2009). Así, el conocimiento de la historia y la epistemología de un área deconocimiento contribuyen tanto a formar criterios para diseñar y concretar una adecuadatrasposición didáctica (Chevallard, 1991; Gómez Mendoza, 2005) como para una cuidadaselección y organización de las actividades para enseñar cada contenido.Nos interesa señalar, en particular, los cambios respecto a la ubicación en estosdiseños del espacio curricular estructurante de las Didácticas General y Especial. La primerade ellas forma parte de la Formación Pedagógica ya mencionada, en tanto la segundaentrelaza la Formación Disciplinar y la Formación Práctica Profesional. Lo anterior implicaun espacio de diálogo nuevo tanto para la formación cuanto para la investigación educativa.Los estudios evidencian escasas prácticas y actividades, en el marco de las disciplinasespecíficas, donde se realicen reflexiones didácticas sobre el ya mencionado CDC y sobrela "enseñabilidad" de un dado contenido. También suele ser poco frecuente que docentesdel área de Psicología o Pedagogía, y a veces hasta de Didáctica General, realicen aportescríticos sobre el aprendizaje o la enseñanza de contenidos de una disciplina específica, porejemplo el rol que juegan en el aprendizaje las representaciones sociales de determinadoscontenidos o los obstáculos y dificultades epistemológicas en la comprensión de contenidoscientíficos. Tal integración recae generalmente en el espacio de las Didácticas Específicas,lo cual no es incorrecto pero consideramos debería ser iniciado y complementado por losotros espacios curriculares de la formación docente (De Longhi, 2014).El campo de la FORMACIÓN EN LA PRÁCTICA PROFESIONAL DOCENTE, acorde alos documentos, incluye los saberes y habilidades que se ponen en juego en el accionardel profesor, tanto en las aulas como en otras actividades que componen el ejercicio de suprofesión. Está orientada al aprendizaje y desarrollo de las capacidades para la actuacióndocente a través de la participación e integración continua y progresiva en los distintoscontextos socioeducativos. Esta práctica se piensa con una presencia transversal y de complejidad gradual a lo largo de los cuatro años del profesorado. Lo anterior rompe con laconcepción aditiva y lineal de los saberes que acompañan el oficio de un profesor, en dondese sostiene que es suficiente contar con saberes "disciplinares" y algo de "pedagogía"para desempeñarse como un profesor de ciencias. En este sentido, las demandas socio-culturales e institucionales reclaman de algunas capacidades y estrategias de toma dedecisión en contextos diversos, lo cual le imprimen una nueva dimensión ética y políticaa su trabajo como "mediador calificado" del sistema educativo y en la cultura (De Longhi,2005).Otra cuestión interesante y desafiante que se expresa en los lineamientos para estecampo es la inclusión de diversos espacios para el ejercicio de las prácticas. Así se proponeir más allá de lo formal y que atendiendo al criterio de alfabetización popular, se lleguea otros escenarios y actividades, por ejemplo vacunación, clubes, dispensarios, ONG,parques, museos, reservas naturales, hecho casi ausente en los profesorados actuales.-Dos titulaciones diferentes. Si bien los lineamientos respecto de Campos, Ejesy Núcleos temáticos son comunes para ambos subsistemas, las cargas horarias mínimastotales y por campos de formación se han diferenciado, así como los títulos que puedenotorgar (Según el Consejo Federal de Educación (Resolución CFE 24/07 y Resolución CFE83/2010). Por un lado los Profesorados de Educación Secundaria y Superior, se desarrollaránen el marco de las universidades y tendrán una asignación de 2900 horas, en tanto losProfesorados de Educación Secundaria, estarán en los IFDC y tendrán un currículum de2600 horas. A pesar de esta diferencia en cantidad de horas, ambos profesorados durancuatro años y poseen habilitación para realizar estudios de posgrado. En otro sentido, porejemplo desde PROFOR (INFD), se han otorgado becas a Profesores de los IFDC pararealizar dicha formación de posgrado. Pero aún no todas las Universidades tienen en suscarreras de posgrado criterios de admisibilidad para esta diferenciación de títulos.-Trabajos compartidos. Otra tensión que intenta el acercamiento entre losIFDC y la Universidad es realizar procesos de formación compartida entre los formadoresde formadores de un futuro docente. Por ejemplo, para los saberes que demanda lainvestigación educativa se han desarrollado líneas de investigación colaborativa o pasantíasen la Universidad. Del mismo modo, para asesoramientos y diseños curriculares se hanconformado grupos mixtos. Esta línea creemos que ayuda a construir una representación yun tratamiento compartido de la problemática de la formación docente y de la enseñanza.-Contenidos, ejes y enfoques. Una tensión importante alude a la relación -nocuantitativa- entre nuevos saberes para la formación y el mayor número de asignaturas endicha formación. Si cada línea, eje conceptual o enfoque dentro de un campo disciplinario,se transforma en asignatura, los planes de estudios se sobrecargan en demasía con elriesgo de reducir profundidad analítica y una comprensión holística. Cabe por tanto, discutir y revisar el diseño e integración en la diversidad de ámbitos de aprendizajes y prácticas,en el marco de distintos espacios curriculares (Wegner, 1998).-El conocimiento científico y su desarrollo. Otra tensión que no se explicitadirectamente en los estándares pero que si atraviesa a futuro la formación de un educador,se asocia fuertemente a la permanente evolución y transformación que sufre el saber aenseñar, dado su vertiginoso desarrollo científico-tecnológico y su uso social (Wolovelsky,2008). Este propósito se refiere también a una perspectiva que muestre la ciencia por susposibilidades emancipatorias, como conocimiento para pensar alternativas a problemaspersistentes y genuinos de la sociedad (agua, energía, salud, hambre). De este modo, y enparticular para la Biología, implica una dimensión axiológica que demanda de una vigilanciaepistemológica y de una actualización sostenida por parte del profesor de Biología.-La Biología como nexo entre lo social y lo natural. Si bien anteriormente hemosexpresado algunas ideas sobre este tema, deseamos remarcar que un profesor de Biologíatiene un fuerte desafío personal y social al enfrentar la enseñanza de problemáticas defronteras complejas, como fármacos y salud, alimentación, reproducción, desforestación,enfermedades, entre otras. Estas temáticas reclaman un fuerte vínculo entre el conocimientobiológico y social, así como entre lo que se entiende desde la razón y desde la emoción(Mellado, 2014). Lo anterior requiere de procesos constantes de actualización y revisiónde prácticas. Al respecto de estas tensiones, nos preguntamos si alcanzarán estos nuevosestándares para orientar esta problemática en el hacer educativo. ¿Qué interpretacionesy gestiones tendrán estos lineamientos? ¿Cuál es el grado de compromiso de cada uno delos que conformamos los diferentes espacios? ¿Cómo hacer visible algunas oportunidadesde cambio?Esta REB llega a 24 jurisdicciones 3 educativas nacionales y a otros países y,quisiéramos aportar que se haya podido consensuar en algunos estándares en pos deuna equidad y oportunidad educativa, no garantiza directamente procesos adecuados detransposición curricular en las diferentes realidades jurisdiccionales; por lo tanto creemosque juega un importante rol los compromisos personales y colectivos para hacer reflexivo,crítico y propositivo esas propuestas, intenciones y desafíos a futuro.

La potestà sanzionatoria riconosciuta dal legislatore all'Amministrazione è stata oggetto dell'analisi dei più autorevoli Studiosi di diritto amministrativo. La tangenza della tematica al diritto penale – sede d'elezione delle riflessioni in materia di conseguenze degli illeciti – ha implicato che i primi approcci ricostruttivi in questo ambito fossero principalmente orientati a spiegare il fenomeno per valorizzarne l'autonomia dall'omologo istituto di diritto penale – e, secondariamente, da quello di diritto civile – e comprenderne l'ontologia e gli elementi connotanti nel panorama dei poteri attribuiti all'Autorità amministrativa. D'altro canto, come autorevolmente riconosciuto, la tematica si inserisce in una delle questioni più complesse tra quelle affrontate dalla scienza giuridica, che coinvolge il rapporto tra i diversi rami dell'ordinamento ed, ancor prima, si ricongiunge alle riflessioni, più propriamente giuridico-filosofiche, in ordine alla funzione della sanzione nell'ordinamento stesso. Per le sanzioni amministrative pecuniarie – da sempre riconosciute come la forma più tipica di esercizio della potestà sanzionatoria della pubblica Amministrazione – un nuovo approccio alle principali problematiche a queste sottese è certamente iniziato con l'entrata in vigore della l. 24 novembre 1981, n. 689, ove per la prima volta il legislatore ha affrontato il tema delle sanzioni amministrative in modo sistematico, anche attraverso la previsione di una disciplina articolata e tendenzialmente completa del regime giuridico applicabile alle stesse. Non può, di certo, sottacersi che l'introduzione di questa disciplina abbia fortemente condizionato i termini generali del dibattito in tema di sanzioni amministrative, con risvolti di notevole interesse, anche con riferimento a quelle misure di carattere sanzionatorio non consistenti nel pagamento di una somma di denaro: sia perché dallo stesso dettato normativo sono stati tratti importanti elementi di cui è stata riconosciuta una portata applicativa estensibile a tutte le sanzioni amministrative, a prescindere dal contenuto delle stesse; sia per il semplice merito che la legge n. 689/1981 ha avuto, di rinvigorire l'invero mai sopito dibattito in materia di sanzioni amministrative, fornendo alla dottrina ed alla giurisprudenza nuovi elementi di riflessione sul tema. D'altro canto, se questa disciplina di legge ordinaria ha offerto alcune risposte ai tradizionali interrogativi in materia, con riferimento alle misure sanzionatorie pecuniarie, da un lato, ciò non è stato sufficiente a risolvere le differenti questioni involgenti i riferimenti costituzionali ai quali ancorare il potere sanzionatorio della pubblica Amministrazione; dall'altro, è mancato un analogo intervento normativo che affrontasse in modo generale e astratto le questioni inerenti ai principi sostanziali e procedimentali applicabili alle misure sanzionatorie prive di contenuto pecuniario. L'opportunità di approfondire il tema delle sanzioni amministrative non pecuniarie nasce, pertanto, da un lato, dal sempre maggior proliferare nella legislazione ordinaria, a fini punitivi e deterrenti, di misure afflittive di carattere non pecuniario, la cui irrogazione è competenza dell'Amministrazione; dall'altro, dalla constatazione della carenza, frammentarietà e disomogeneità del quadro normativo in cui questo specifico tipo di sanzione si inserisce. In termini di estrema sintesi può ritenersi posto all'interprete che voglia analizzare il tema delle sanzionatorie amministrative non pecuniarie un duplice interrogativo. Ci si deve chiedere, infatti, se la singola fattispecie descritta dal legislatore sia effettivamente ascrivibile al genus della sanzione amministrativa e, in secondo luogo, quali conseguenze in termini di regime giuridico applicabile derivino da tale qualificazione. L'analisi deve, pertanto, preliminarmente riguardare il ruolo che la sanzione ricopre nell'ordinamento giuridico, per giungere a definirne la specifica natura e funzione rivestita tra le forme di esercizio del potere amministrativo, ai fini della tutela degli interessi pubblici la cura dei quali è affidata alle Amministrazioni. Diviene essenziale, così, verificare quali siano i confini tra le sanzioni amministrative ed i fenomeni sanzionatori propri di altri rami del diritto, ovvero le sanzioni civili e quelle penali. La trattazione si sviluppa, pertanto, affrontando, per prima cosa, l'atteggiarsi del concetto di sanzione nella teoria generale – attraverso un excursus, sia pur limitato ai caratteri essenziali, dell'evoluzione del pensiero giuridico in materia –, quale opportuna riflessione preliminare ad un'indagine che voglia avvicinarsi al tema della sanzione come modalità di esercizio del potere amministrativo. Sulla base di queste premesse, valorizzate preliminarmente le caratteristiche essenziali della sanzione nell'essere una misura sfavorevole e reattiva alla commissione di un illecito, deve poi approfondirsi la controversa questione della definizione del concetto di sanzione amministrativa, attraverso l'individuazione dei confini esterni di questo istituto, nella distinzione dagli omologhi di diritto civile e penale e, in secondo luogo, dei confini interni, a mezzo dell'analisi delle due distinte tradizionali letture della sanzione, «in senso ampio» ed «in senso stretto», che sono state elaborate dalla dottrina nazionale che si è confrontata con l'argomento, dalle riflessioni di Zanobini in poi. Tali conclusioni dovranno, quindi, essere verificate nella loro validità ed attualità con le considerazioni espresse in ordine al concetto di «accusa penale» da parte della Corte europea dei diritti dell'uomo – ai fini dell'individuazione del campo di applicazione degli artt. 6 e 7 della CEDU –, concetto che abbraccia una nozione di pena che prescinde dalle qualificazioni della misura stessa nei diritti nazionali, ma, operando in via autonoma e trasversale ai campi del diritto degli Stati aderenti alla Convenzione, ne riqualifica il concetto, valorizzando la rilevanza dell'elemento (primariamente) afflittivo sulle differenti finalità reintegrative e risarcitorie che una misura svantaggiosa e reattiva ad un illecito può perseguire. Ciò giustifica l'ascrizione nel concetto di «pena» ai sensi della CEDU di quelle misure svantaggiose, consequenziali ad una condotta illecita e, soprattutto, primariamente afflittive/punitive, anche se la loro irrogazione è competenza di un'autorità Amministrativa. Questa interpretazione, ad oggi, assume una funzione centrale nella lettura del fenomeno sanzionatorio, alla luce del ruolo ormai assunto dalle disposizioni della Convenzione europea dei diritti dell'uomo – nell'interpretazione delle stesse offerta dalla Corte di Strasburgo – che rendono concretamente operativo il parametro costituito dall'art. 117, primo comma, Cost., nei giudizi di legittimità costituzionale, costituendo una delle determinazioni degli «obblighi internazionali» ivi richiamati, che vincolano la potestà legislativa dello Stato e delle Regioni, secondo la lettura attualmente offerta dalla Corte costituzionale a partire dalle note sentenze del 24 ottobre 2007, nn. 348 e 349; ciò ha fortemente condizionato lo stesso concetto di sanzione amministrativa, nella sua accezione di misura punitiva, per come elaborato dalla giurisprudenza della Corte costituzionale, i cui non sempre costanti orientamenti sul punto meritano uno specifico approfondimento, in virtù degli effetti determinanti che ciò ha prodotto sulla definizione del regime giuridico applicabile alle sanzioni amministrative. Solo una volta individuata una nozione chiara e condivisibile di sanzione amministrativa alla luce della complessità dell'attuale quadro giuridico di riferimento, nazionale e sovranazionale, si potrà operare un discrimine tra le misure amministrative sanzionatorie, in base al loro contenuto, per poter approfondire quelle di carattere non pecuniario, che si atteggiano in termini svantaggiosi e consequenziali ad un illecito, ma di cui va verificata la funzione effettivamente perseguita per comprenderne la portata sanzionatoria. L'analisi non coinvolgerà, invece, quelle sanzioni amministrative comminate a seguito dell'inosservanza di doveri di ordine particolare di tipo disciplinare, in quanto lo specifico rapporto di soggezione che deriva dalla relazione intercorrente tra l'Amministrazione ed il soggetto alla stessa sottoposto ha da sempre colorato in termini del tutto peculiari il regime giuridico applicabile a questa categoria. La descritta, fondamentale, fase qualificatoria consentirà, quindi, di approfondire l'analisi delle più rilevanti categorie di misure amministrative prive di contenuto pecuniario potenzialmente qualificabili in termini sanzionatori. In primo luogo, saranno oggetto di indagine le forme di interdizione – affiancate dalle ipotesi di decadenza e di sospensione – che incidono sulla sfera giuridica del destinatario, impedendo l'accesso o eliminando – in via definitiva o temporanea – un beneficio di carattere personale o patrimoniale cui si accede per previsione di legge o a seguito dell'intervento di un provvedimento amministrativo. L'analisi di alcune specifiche fattispecie interdittive, dalla dubbia qualificazione in termini sanzionatori, servirà per comprendere la validità del criterio di demarcazione tra misure sanzionatorie e non accolto nell'indagine, anche alla luce dell'applicazione che di questi concetti ha fatto la giurisprudenza nazionale. L'esame dovrà, poi, coinvolgere anche l'ampia e multiforme categoria delle confische amministrative, all'interno della quale sarà possibile rinvenire anche fattispecie aventi portata afflittiva e non principalmente preventiva e cautelare. Una volta focalizzata l'attenzione sulla tipologia di misure amministrative non pecuniarie qualificabili in termini di «sanzione», alla luce delle considerazioni svolte nella premessa di natura definitoria, l'indagine si orienterà alla complessa ricostruzione del regime giuridico applicabile alle sanzioni amministrative non pecuniarie. Ciò implicherà, inevitabilmente, la soluzione del presupposto interrogativo circa il quadro delle fonti del diritto applicabili in materia, con uno specifico richiamo al rilievo delle fonti sovranazionali, in particolare alle disposizioni della CEDU – dato il valore peculiare rivestito in materia di esercizio del potere sanzionatorio – e della Carta dei diritti fondamentali dell'Unione europea; si verificherà, quindi, quale siano le disposizioni costituzionali applicabili, più in generale, a tutte le sanzioni amministrative, con specifico riguardo a quelle norme tradizionalmente riferite al diritto penale (in particolare gli artt. 25 e 27 Cost.), nonché se assumano rilievo, con riferimento alle misure sanzionatorie non pecuniarie, i principi definiti dal legislatore ordinario nella l. n. 689/1981 e, almeno apparentemente, applicabili alle sole sanzioni pecuniarie in forza di una lettura rigorosa di quanto disposto dall'art. 12 della legge stessa. L'analisi delle fonti consentirà, quindi, di fare chiarezza su alcune delle più rilevanti questioni relative ai principi applicabili alla responsabilità da illecito amministrativo, sia sotto il profilo sostanziale che procedimentale. Nella prima categoria, un ruolo centrale deve essere attribuito al principio di legalità ed ai suoi corollari, cui si riconnettono le principali questioni circa l'estensibilità alle sanzioni amministrative del divieto di retroattività della disposizione che introduce l'illecito amministrativo – ed, ancor meglio, il rango di questo principio all'interno dell'ordinamento – nonché della problematica della applicabilità in materia del principio di retroattività della disciplina più favorevole sopravvenuta, previsto per gli illeciti penali, anche alla luce di una riflessione in ordine alle fonti che tale principio disciplinano. Altresì rilevante è la questione della qualificabilità in termini personali e colpevoli della responsabilità da illecito amministrativo, nonché il rilievo rivestito in questo ambito dal principio di proporzionalità – la cui vincolatività si orienta nei confronti dell'Amministrazione competente ad irrogare la sanzione, ma anche verso il legislatore che la commina – e dal principio di necessaria offensività della condotta, per considerare punibile l'illecito accertato. Sotto il profilo delle modalità di esercizio del potere amministrativo sanzionatorio acquisirà, invece, ruolo centrale la verifica degli effetti, in materia, dei canoni derivanti dall'art. 6 CEDU, con la conseguente necessità di esaminare le connotazioni dei procedimenti sanzionatori, per come disciplinati nel diritto interno, alla stregua del canone del «giusto procedimento sanzionatorio», che da tale disposizione viene tratto, principalmente, attraverso la lettura operata dalla Corte di Strasburgo. Sarà necessario vedere, infatti, se le garanzie – quali l'indipendenza, l'imparzialità soggettiva ed oggettiva dell'organo decidente e la necessaria separazione tra questo e l'organo che formula l'accusa, la pubblicità e l'oralità del procedimento, il diritto al contraddittorio, alla difesa ed alla parità delle armi – debbano necessariamente essere prestate in fase procedimentale e se, ed eventualmente entro quali limiti, il successivo vaglio giurisdizionale cui viene sottoposto il provvedimento sanzionatorio possa «sanare» un deficit in sede procedimentale. Verranno, poi, indagati l'atteggiarsi in materia dell'obbligo di motivazione del provvedimento e, sotto diverso profilo, l'esistenza di un obbligo di esercizio del potere amministrativo sanzionatorio, alla luce dei principi esistenti in materia penale. Infine, specifico oggetto di approfondimento sarà la questione degli effetti della rilevanza, nei rapporti tra illeciti differentemente qualificati come amministrativi e penali negli ordinamenti nazionali, del principio del ne bis in idem come affermato dalla più recente giurisprudenza della Corte EDU, che ne ha individuato i margini di operatività a seguito della sua opera di riqualificazione in termini di «accusa penale» delle fattispecie sottoposte al suo esame. La ricostruzione così tentata avrà, quindi – sia pur senza alcuna pretesa di esaustività, data l'ampiezza delle fattispecie potenzialmente coinvolte e delle questioni interpretative aperte –, la precipua finalità di evidenziare in quali termini si atteggi il complesso metodo d'indagine che il cittadino prima e l'interprete specializzato poi devono utilizzare per stabilire se una determinata misura non pecuniaria, che procuri uno svantaggio in conseguenza dell'inosservanza di una norma, possa qualificarsi come sanzione e, in secondo luogo, quali conseguenze giuridiche derivino da questa qualificazione, per derivarne considerazioni conclusive in ordine all'effettivo rispetto dei fondamentali canoni di certezza del diritto, di accessibilità delle fonti e di prevedibilità delle conseguenze derivanti dalle condotte poste in essere dagli amministrati, che il dettato costituzionale e le fonti sovranazionali, europee ed euro-unitarie, impongono.

*This series is the result of an adaptation of a paper presented as part of a seminar on "Theories and Research in International Relations" at Hebrew University, July 2012. Commentaries are welcome to daniel.wajner@mail.huji.ac.il Click here to read Part II of the series In the first article of this series we have introduced the debates on the ontology of power, while in the second one we have presented the main epistemological approaches of the different paradigms. In this third and final article we will deal with methodological schemes for Power Analysis in IR, while indicating areas for possible innovation using the "Arab Spring" cases as illustrations. Power, Outcomes, and what brings them togetherAs we have seen in the last part, the contribution made by Barnett and Duvall with his taxonomy of four dimensions of power is very helpful as theoretical framework; nevertheless, it is still weak to implement as a methodological tool - it is very difficult to distinguish in a real case what is originated through the structure or the actor, as well as to measure if the specificity is direct or diffuse.But the same could be expressed about the majority of the mentioned schemes. In fact, Dahl itself warned about the difficulties of combining variables to compare power relations and argued that it depends on the requirements of the research.1 This complexity is even larger when normative factors are included; for example, despite the proposal of Nye of measuring soft power through polls and focus groups, he also cautioned about the limits of the intangible variables.2 Hurt addresses certain ways of skipping the difficulties in measuring the power of legitimacy, such as examining: the rates of compliance, the reasons given for compliance and for non-compliance, the support given by the centers of Power and the need for legitimacy argument (akin to a counterfactual technique).3 But, once again, no combined power relations framework is presented.In addition, Lukes argues that power depends on the "significance" of the outcomes, namely, in the capacity of affecting the interests of the agents. He refers to two methods: by changing incentives structures (indoctrination) and by influencing interests (subject freedom). However, Lukes confesses that the main question remains open: how to use certain power to shape certain preferences?4In conclusion, in these approaches no power relation mechanism explains, in a measurable way, how material and normative resources are combined to shape power and influence decisions. Therefore, I would like to subsequently suggest a very simple framework that may allow us to implement the knowledge mentioned hitherto to study specific cases in IR.In line with the majority of the authors, in order to make power measurable I consider that we have to divide it in two variables: material power (or simply Power) and legitimation power (or legitimacy). In international politics, the power of an actor is expressed by its military (backed-by-economical) resources, and for the scheme it would receive "high" or "low" values. The legitimacy of the actors, which is based on their capacity to be perceived as norms-compliers and to build consensus around them5, would receive also "high" or "low" values.A power analysis based on the combination of those two variables, as it is shown below in illustration I, leads us to the taxonomy of four types of cases, each one ascribed to an "outcome". It is important to clarify that, for this paper, the outcomes would reflect the domestic situation of the main agent (the State) given an international system; it is a sort of outside-in analysis if we take into account Gourevitch´s second image reversed.6 Further work has to be done to adapt this scheme so as to explain the conduct of the State vis-à-vis other States as well as to include the domestic sphere of legitimacy.The first actor, which has high power and high legitimacy, could describe his situation as "stable"; that means, the actor would overcome the domestic and external challenges without internal changes and high international costs.The second actor, having high power but low legitimacy, is considered to be in a "changeable" situation. Although this actor is capable of overcoming internal and external challenges, due to the fact that it lacks of support from the other actors he could suffer from high international costs and possibly domestic changes.Illustration I – Taxonomy of Power-Legitimacy outcomesPOWERLEGITIMACYHigh PowerLow Power High Legitimacy "STABLE" "PROTECTABLE" Low Legitimacy "CHANGEABLE" "REVOLUTIONABLE" To the third actor, which has low power but high legitimacy, his situation is defined as "protectable". Due to his incapacity to overcome alone the internal and external challenges, this actor may count on the support of other actors to reduce the possibility of domestic changes; otherwise he will suffer from it.The fourth actor, with low power and low legitimacy, is placed in a "revolutionable" situation; that means, this actor is candidate to suffer from internal changes and high international costs at the time he would face challenges.Testing the Power Analysis framework with the "Arab Spring"The phenomenon known as the "Arab Spring", composed of dozens of countries in which massive protests were held, constitutes an outstanding test for the theory. A large quantity of those cases happened in a very short range of time, with all the variety of domestic conditions, reactions from the regime and from the world, as well as different outcomes. This makes those events ideal for the present examination; even though it is just a "sample" of a more deeply study.7Although no State of those that suffered uprisings is considered in a "stable" situation at all, Saudi Arabia and Jordan could be mentioned as good examples of Arab countries that combined high power (relatively, of course) and high legitimacy. Their regimes faced the uprisings from the beginning (mid-January 2011), but were capable of overcoming the internal challenges through a combination of repression and reforms, without suffering changes in their regime and being supported by the international community.Egypt is probably the best representation of a country whose regime kept high power at the moment of facing domestic challenges but received low legitimacy from the world; this "changeable" situation caused drastic changes at the top of the leadership (including the president, ministers, etc), albeit not of the whole regime (still leaded by the Military Council). Syria seems to be in a similar situation; while the power of the regime is still high, the legitimacy is not low enough to bring to major changes due to the sustained support of Russia, China and Iran. As a result, Syria constitutes today an excellent test for the power of legitimacy (and norms) in international politics.Between those countries that experienced a combination of low power and high legitimacy, experiencing a "protectable" situation, it is possible to mention Bahrain. Despite its regime was not capable of overcoming the internal revolts alone, it counted with the support of most of the Arab countries in the repression, and the Western approval of the "regional intervention" leaded by Gulf countries around the GCC. Yemen was in a comparable position, but at the end of 2011 the legitimacy of its regime was reduced when the region and the world understood the necessity to remove the President to maintain the remaining, in what was denominated later "the Yemenite option".Finally, Libya constitutes the case in which the regime was in a "revolutionable" situation, owing to its low Power to contain the rapid domestic rebellion and its low legitimacy after the first days of tremendous repression. The international costs were so high that included a military intervention leaded by NATO (with the endorsement of the Arab League), that led to the total collapse of the regime. It is possible to say that Tunisia was in an analogous situation while it did not need for a civil war and an external intervention to consummate finally a revolution (i.e., the complete removal of the existing regime).ConclusionsThroughout the paper we were able to observe that the ontological, epistemological and methodological discussions about the complex concept of Power maintain their relevance in the main schools of IR, and in some cases even constitute an essential part of their latest developments.At the same time, the inter-paradigmatic efforts of the last decades are demanding new power analysis approaches; that means, theoretical schemes that would embed a combination of the different factors at stake (material and non-material, resources and interactions, agents and structures) to specific cases of study.Deeper examinations of the "Arab Spring" cases need to be implemented so as to confirm the presented findings, as it was previously said. However, these small samples could possibly reveal that the implementation of a framework that combines both material and non-material resources is possible and, even more, desirable, to a better understanding of the devices of power in IR. 1 Robert A. Dahl, "The concept of Power", p.2142 Joseph S. Nye, Soft Power- The Means to Success in World Politics. p.63 Ian Hurt, "Legitimacy and Authority in International Politics". International Organization 53 No2 (Spring 1999), 390-3914 Stephen Lukes, "Power and the Battle for Hearts and Minds", p.4925 This short definition is based on concepts presented in Ian Clark, "Legitimacy in International Society" (London: Oxford University Press, 2005). It includes components both from the structure and the agent.6 Peter Gourevitch, "The second image reversed – the international sources of domestic politics" International Organization 32 No4, (Autumn 1978), 881-911.7 An investigation is "under construction", called "The Arab League and its legitimation role in the Arab Spring". It focuses on the power of the Arab League to yield legitimacy (or not) in six different cases. Bibliography Bachrach, Peter and Baratz, Morton S. "Two Faces of Power". The American Political Science Review 56 No4, (December 1962), 947-952 Baldwin, David A. Paradoxes of Power (NYC: Basil Blackwell, 1989). Barnett, Michael and Duvall, Raymond. "Power in International Politics", International Organization 59, No1 (Winter 2005), 39-75 Berenskoetter, Felix and Williams, Michael J. Power in World Politics. (NYC: Routledge, 2007) Bourdieu, Pierre. Language & Symbolic Power (NYC : Polity Press, 2001) Carr, Edward H., The Twenty Years' Crisis,1919-1939 (NYC: Harper Torchbooks, 1964) Clark, Ian. "Legitimacy in International Society" (NYC: Oxford University Press, 2005) Claude, Inis L., Power and International Relations (New York: Random House, 1962). Dahl, Robert A. "The concept of Power", Behavioral Science 2 No3, (July 1957), 201-215 Haas, Ernst B. When Knowledge is Power (University of California Press, 1990). Finnemore, Martha and Sikkink, Kathryn "International Norm Dynamics and Political Change," International Organization 52, No. 4 (Autumn 1998), 887-917. Foucalt, Michael. Power/Knowledge: Selected Interviews and Other Writings 1972-77 (Brighton: Havester, 1980) Franck, Thomas M., "The Power of Legitimacy and the Legitimacy of Power: International Law in an Age of Power Disequilibrium." American Journal International 88 (2006), 88-106 Gourevitch, Peter. "The second image reversed – the international sources of domestic politics" International Organization 32 No4, (Autumn 1978), 881-911. Guzzini, Stefano, "The Concept of Power: A Constructivist Analysis" Millennium 33 No3, 2005, 495-521. Guzzini, Stefano, "Structural power: the limits of neorealist power analysis", International Organization 47, No3 (Summer 1993), 443-478. Hurt, Ian, "Legitimacy and Authority in International Politics". International Organization 53 No2 (Spring 1999), 379-408 Ikenberry, John and Kupchan, Charles A. "Socialization and hegemonic power", International Organization 44, No3 (Summer 1990), 283-315. Keohane, Robert O. and Nye, Joseph S., Power and Interdependence, 2nd edition (New York: Harper Collins, 1989) Krasner, Stephen D. "Regimes and the Limits of Realism: Regimes as Autonomous Variables", International Organization 36 (Spring 1982), 497-510 Lukes, Stephen. "Power and the Battle for Hearts and Minds", Millennium 33 No3, (2005), 477-493 Mearsheimer, John. The Tragedy of Great power Politics (NYC: Norton, 2001) Morgenthau, Hans J., Politics among Nations, 4th edition (NYC: Knopf, 1967). Nye, Joseph S. Soft Power- The Means to Success in World Politics (NYC: PublicAffairs, 2004) Putnam, Robert. "Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games," International Organization 42, No3, (1988), 427-460 Risse, Thomas. "Let's Argue! Communicative Action in World Politics," International Organization 54 No1 (Winter 2000), 1-40. Schmidt, Brian C. "Competing Realist Conceptions of Power", Millennium 33 No3, 523-549 Walt, Stephen. The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1987) Waltz, Kenneth. Theory of International Politics. (NYC: McGraw-Hill, 1979) Weber, Max. Economy and Society: An Outline of Interpretive Sociology. (California: University of Berkeley, 1978. Edited by Guenther Roth and Claus Wittich). Wendt, Alexander. "Anarchy is What States Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics," International Organization 46 (1992), 391-425. Wendt, Alexander. "The Agent-Structure Problem in International Relations Theory", International Organization 41/3 (1987), 335-370. Fabian Daniel Wajner is a Research and Teaching Assistant at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Department of International Relations) and a Fellow of the Liweranth Center for Latin America Studies.

Es un hecho que los derechos humanos se han erigido como el principal regulador del accionar político – y también moral – a nivel internacional desde mediados del siglo pasado, monopolizando los debates y convirtiéndose en un verdadero contrapeso de las decisiones tomadas por los Estados, llegando incluso a transformarse, cada vez con mayor frecuencia, en una fuerza relativizadora de la soberanía estatal. En este sentido, es posible afirmar que en la actualidad, los derechos humanos intentan cumplir la función de un código moral universal.Sin embargo, desde la creación de las Naciones Unidas, y con la posterior Declaración Universal de los Derechos Humanos (en adelante DUDH), estos han ocupado un lugar preponderante en la política internacional sin hacerse eco del profundo debate académico a su respecto, y se han nutrido de una imponente burocracia internacional que ejecuta las políticas delineadas para su defensa de forma automática.Esta falta de relación entre el debate académico y la evolución de los derechos humanos, sumado a la carencia de debate público acerca de los fundamentos que los sustentas, ha generado un estancamiento que se evidencia a través de una aparente aceptación universal de los derechos humanos tal cual los definen y defienden las Naciones Unidas. La avasallante lógica expansiva que caracteriza a los organismos que trabajan en la materia – cuya única preocupación parecería ser, en muchos casos, la de aumentar las áreas de la vida humana reguladas por estos derechos – impide, en gran medida, que el foco de debate se centre en cómo concebimos dichos derechos, una cuestión central que se encuentra en el origen del inmenso aparato burocrático en el que se han convertido las Naciones Unidad.Para comenzar a echar luz sobre este tema, sería bueno introducir un conocido debate entre de dos diferentes concepciones de los derechos humanos que se enfrentan en sus postulados más básicos. El análisis de dicho debate nos permitirá esclarecer los sustentos filosóficos de un concepto que ha devenido en un factor de vital relevancia en la política internacional, y que a su vez justifica el accionar de una organización internacional en la que muchos ven el "germen" de un futuro gobierno mundial.¿Derechos naturales o políticos? La idea de que los derechos humanos son universales, inalienables e incluso inherentes en toda su dimensión a la naturaleza humana, se ha convertido ya en un lugar común a la hora de tratar el tema, amenazando incluso con convertirse en una verdad incuestionable. Sin embargo, esta simple definición tiene serias implicancias filosóficas que no pueden ser dejadas de lado al momento de realizar una abordaje serio de dicha cuestión.En concreto, la aparente obviedad de que los derechos humanos radican de forma natural sobre todos los seres humanos, en todo lugar y momento histórico, implica la aceptación, a priori, de una concepción iusnaturalista de estos derechos, que los presenta como naturales y los identifica en una instancia previa a la sociedad y su posterior ordenamiento. Esta concepción, que podríamos identificar como universalismo naturalista, colisiona de manera frontal con la concepción política de los derechos humanos, que los entiende como una construcción esencialmente política y por ende también humana.Surge aquí una contradicción notoria. Estas concepciones son absolutamente incompatibles, pues si los derechos humanos son una construcción política, es imprescindible renunciar a la idea de que radican sobre todos los seres humanos simplemente en base a nuestra "humanidad" compartida, al tiempo que la idea de que son innatos caería por su propio peso.La argumentación esgrimida por los partidarios del universalismo naturalista es quizá la más conocida, no solo por estar presente en la DUDH, sino además por el atractivo inicial de sus principales postulados. La idea de que los derechos humanos son universales, pues son poseídos de igual forma por todos los seres humanos, e independientes a todo reconocimiento social, político o jurídico, resulta sumamente atractiva desde un punto de vista moral, más aun si lo miramos desde una sociedad cuya organización política corresponde a una democracia liberal. Pero la solidez de este argumento puede ser fácilmente puesta en cuestión, tan solo con analizar cuáles son los derechos humanos reconocidos en las principales convenciones internacionales.En este caso podemos seguir la sugerencia realizada por Kenneth Baynes (2009,373) para testear en qué medida un derecho humano es o no genuino. El autor, gran defensor de la concepción política, sostiene que para ser concebidos como naturales, los derechos humanos deben ser derechos negativos y no positivos, pues de lo contrario confirmarían la sospecha de que son una construcción meramente humana. El ejemplo favorito en este caso es el derecho a tener vacaciones periódicas pagas, consagrado en el artículo 24 de la DUD1, punto que no merece mayor discusión, dado que es muy claro su carácter positivo. Sin embargo, el aspecto fundamental de este simple "test" sugerido por Baynes, es que pone en entredicho el carácter natural de los derechos humanos, pues estos suponen, en varios casos, la existencia de instituciones políticas y sociales sin las cueles no serían jamás comprendidos. El carácter "pre-social" que se les atribuye sería entonces imposible, pues su existencia se adscribiría a un lugar y momento dado, lo que tiraría por tierra toda pretensión de universalidad.Quienes se oponen al universalismo naturalista desde el foco del relativismo cultural esgrimen este argumento como una de sus más potentes objeciones. ¿Cómo es posible que para respetar debidamente los derechos humanos una sociedad deba contar con determinado tipo de instituciones? El artículo 25 de la DUDH es quizá más revelador aun, introduciendo conceptos como el de "nivel de vida" o "bienestar"2.Pero esto último no significa que todos los derechos comprendidos en la DUDH adolezcan de los mismos vicios que los artículos 24 y 25. Por el contrario, los derechos primordiales, como el derecho a la vida, son claramente derechos negativos, y en tanto tales podrían ser entendidos como derechos naturales con una validez suprapositiva. Esta suprapositividad a la que hacemos referencia implicaría su elevación por encima de todo ordenamiento jurídico ya sea nacional o internacional, por lo que los legisladores de turno no podrán hacer más que garantizarlos, pues nunca serán capaces denegarlos ni mucho menos derogarlos (Ferrara, 2003).Sin embargo, siguiendo la crítica que Habermas (1997, 81) realiza a los defensores del universalismo naturalista, por más que en los principales documentos se refiera a los derechos humanos como "innatos", nada los protegerá "del destino de todo derecho positivo", pues estos podrán ser "cambiados" o "derogados" en cualquier momento, dado que solo hace falta para ello el cambio del régimen político que los aprueba y ampara. Como bien nota el mismo Habermas, concebidos "como normas constitucionales – los derechos humanos – gozan de validez positiva, pero como derechos que les corresponden a cada persona como ser humano se les adscribe al mismo tiempo una validez suprapositiva".Esta validez suprapositiva es, en cierta medida, la que intenta combatir la concepción política a la que hacemos referencia. La explicación que ofrece Habermas (1997, 81) es la siguiente:"El concepto de derechos humanos no tiene un origen moral, sino una acuñación específica del concepto moderno de derechos subjetivos, esto es, de una terminología jurídica. Los derechos humanos tienen originariamente una naturaleza jurídica. Lo que le presta la apariencia de derechos morales no es su contenido, y con mayor motivo tampoco su estructura, sino su sentido de validez, que trasciende los ordenamientos jurídicos de los Estados nacionales".El pensamiento de Habarmas con respecto a los derechos humanos podría ubicarse en un extremo de la concepción política, pues para el autor alemán estos derechos no son más que puras herramientas jurídicas que, a pesar de regular aspectos morales, deben su validez y legitimidad al ordenamiento jurídico que los comprende. Sin embargo, dentro de esta misma concepción podemos encontrar posturas menos radicales que la de Habermas y que, a pesar de negar y combatir la asociación de los derechos humanos con algún tipo de derechos naturales, sí le otorgan una validez suprapositiva en el sentido que no requieren ningún tipo de reconocimiento legal o político para ser validos, dado que han sido creados para funcionar como una unidad de medida para juzgar el éxito de una determinada sociedad (Baynes, 2009, 327).Jack Donelly, reconocido teórico defensor de la universalidad de los derechos humanos, ha introducido un concepto intermedio entre la concepción política y la universalista. En un texto titulado The Relative Universality of Human Rights, el autor bosqueja lo que ha denominado como Universalismo Relativo, evitando relacionar a los derechos humanos con cualquier versión de universalismo antropológico u ontológico, dejando así espacio para particularidades nacionales, regionales y culturales. Este matiz reconoce su origen político pero nada implica que por ello deban dejar de ser universales.En cambio, lo que sí trasciende a todos los defensores de la concepción política es la idea de que los derechos humanos, por su condición de creación política, han sido diseñados para cumplir con determinados objetivos en el seno de la sociedad que los comprende. El hecho de que "dejen" de ser derechos naturales implica, de manera esperable, una cierta instrumentalidad que varía según el autor al que nos refiramos. El caso paradigmático en este aspecto es quizá John Rawls, quien en El Derecho de Gentes (1999) propone una doctrina de los derechos humanos en la que estos no cumplirían la función de proteger a los seres humanos en el ejercicio de sus derechos más básicos, sino que tendrían como único fin regular las relaciones entre Estados. Por el contrario, como ya ha sido expuesto anteriormente, muchos autores ven en los derechos humanos un marco de referencia para juzgar el funcionamiento de una sociedad y su éxito en el respeto de los derechos y libertades de sus integrantes.ConclusiónEl breve análisis de estas dos concepciones nos permite ingresar en un amplio debate acerca de sustentos filosóficos de los derechos humanos. Su origen, fundamentación y alcance son algunos de los temas que mayor polémica generan en el debate académico. Hemos realizado aquí la aproximación tan solo a uno de estos temas, dejando de lado apasionantes discusiones, como por ejemplo si todos los derechos humanos deberían ser considerados como tales o si existen diferentes niveles de importancia dentro de los reconocidos en la actualidad. Sin embargo, es importante reconocer que toda discusión acerca de los derechos humanos comienza con el problema de establecer cuál es su origen, pues dependiendo a la conclusión que lleguemos, las implicancias sobre el derecho y la política internacional serán realmente importantes. Es indudable que el universalismo naturalista ha prevalecido en el sistema de derechos humanos desarrollado por Naciones Unidas, pero ello no implica desconocer la validez de otras concepciones que tienen mucho que decir al respecto, incluso en cuanto a la mejora de la concepción dominante. BibliografíaBAYNES, Kenneth. 2009. Toward a political conception of human rights. Philosophy & social criticism, (35, 4): pp. 371-90.DONNELLY, Jack. 2007. The relative universality of human rights. Human Rights Quarterly (29, 2): pp. 281-306.FERRARA, Alessandro. 2003. To notions of humanity and the judgment argument for human rights. Political theory, (31, 3): pp.392-420.HABERMAS, Jürgen. 2010. El concepto de dignidad humana y la utopía realista de los derechos humanos. Diánoia, (55, 64): pp. 3-25.RAWLS, John. 1999. The Law of peoples: with "The idea of public reason revisited". Cambridge: Harvard University Press.UNESCO. 2008. Declaración Universal de Derechos Humanos. Santiago de Chile: ORELAC/UNESCO.1- "Toda persona tiene derecho al descanso, al disfrute del tiempo libre, a una limitación razonable de la duración del trabajo y a vacaciones periódicas pagadas" (Unesco, 2008).2- El artículo 25 de la DUDH consagra lo siguiente "1. Toda persona tiene derecho a un nivel de vida adecuado que le asegure, así como a su familia, la salud y el bienestar, y en especial la alimentación, el vestido, la vivienda, la asistencia médica y los servicios sociales necesarios; tiene asimismo derecho a los seguros en caso de desempleo, enfermedad, invalidez, viudez, vejez y otros casos de pérdida de sus medios de subsistencia por circunstancias independientes de su voluntad. 2. La maternidad y la infancia tienen derecho a cuidados y asistencia especiales. Todos los niños, nacidos de matrimonio o fuera de matrimonio, tienen derecho a igual protección social". Sobre el autorEstudiante de Estudios Internacionales (Universidad ORT-Uruguay)

Macroeconomic expectation data are of great interest to different agents due to their importance as central input factors in various applications. To name but a few, politicians, capital market participants, as well as academics, incorporate these forecast data into their decision processes. Consequently, a sound understanding of the quality properties of macroeconomic forecast data, their quality determinants, as well as potential ways to improve macroeconomic predictions is desirable. This thesis consists of three essays on the quality of analysts' forecasts. The first essay deals with macroeconomic forecast quality on the consensus level, while the second one investigates individual analysts' predictions and their quality determinants. In the third essay a bottom-up approach is introduced to derive macroeconomic forecasts from analysts' predictions at the microeconomic level. It is generally assumed that macroeconomic consensus forecasts provide a reasonable approximation of market participants' expectations regarding upcoming macroeconomic releases. Research areas in which these expectation data are a central input to isolate the unanticipated news component of a given announcement include studies analyzing the price impact of macroeconomic news in bond markets (e.g., Balduzzi et al., 2001; Gilbert et al., 2010), stock markets (e.g., Boyd et al., 2005; Cenesizoglu, 2011) as well as in foreign exchange markets (e.g., Andersen et al., 2003; Evans and Lyons, 2008). Furthermore, these forecast data are used to study market co-movement (e.g., Albuquerque and Vega, 2009), market volatility (e.g., Beber and Brandt, 2008; Brenner et al., 2009), changes in market liquidity (e.g., Brandt and Kavajecz, 2004; Pasquariello and Vega, 2007, 2009) as well as bond and equity risk premiums (e.g., Savor and Wilson, 2012; Dicke and Hess, 2012). It appears reasonable to assume that macroeconomic consensus forecasts represent market participants' expectations properly. So far available studies on forecast rationality at the consensus level largely test for general quality properties. They commonly find no evidence of systematic or persistent inefficiencies. In contrast to these previous studies, Campbell and Sharpe (2009) test for a specific behavioral inefficiency, the anchoring bias, first documented by Tversky and Kahneman (1974) in psychological experiments. Transferred to the context of macroeconomic forecasts, anchoring means that analysts put too much importance on last months' data and therefore underweight meanwhile released relevant information. This behavior implies a false incorporation of all available information into their forecasts. Consequently, a correction, i.e., the efficient use of the entire available information set would yield forecast improvements. Our analysis reveals a counter-intuitive result: We find strong statistical significance for anchoring in most macroeconomic forecast series, but applying a look-ahead bias free estimation and adjustment procedure leads to no systematic forecast improvements. Therefore, our results question the economical significance of the anchoring bias. To provide an explanation for the disconnection of statistical and economical significance, we decompose the anchoring bias test statistic and find that the test is biased itself. While the test assumes a univariate information environment, it neglects the possibility that analysts may provide superior forecasts by using a more comprehensive information set than just the univariate time series itself. Our empirical as well as our simulation results strongly support this explanation for a broad range of macroeconomic series. Our analysis contributes to different strands of literature. First, our results directly add to the scarce literature analyzing the efficiency of macroeconomic survey forecasts by showing that informational advantages of analysts, i.e., the incorporation of related macroeconomic data, enable them to outperform mechanically generated time series forecasts. Furthermore, our results provide motivation for other research areas, such as studies analyzing equity analysts' outputs, to control for a larger information set, for instance by including earnings information of related companies or information about overall business conditions. Second, our findings strongly support the assumption that macroeconomic survey forecasts represent a reasonable proxy measure for the anticipated information component in macroeconomic releases and consequently justify their use in the above mentioned research areas. Furthermore, our results highlight the danger to test for cognitive biases in a time series context which were previously only tested in controlled experiments. Especially when experiments are conducted in a highly regulated informational setting, i.e., when information given to test participants has to be strictly controlled for, as in anchoring bias experiments, it is questionable whether a direct transfer in a time series setting is possible at all. Future studies analyzing cognitive biases in time series frameworks have to consider carefully whether informational constraints might drive the results and lead to false conclusions. The first essay provides strong evidence for the quality of macroeconomic forecasts at the consensus level, the second essay deals with individual macroeconomic forecasts and analyzes why certain analysts provide better forecasts then others. In particular, we focus on the association between the idiosyncratic predictability of a given macroeconomic indicator and the relation between analyst characteristics and macroeconomic forecast accuracy. Obviously, there might be quality differences on the individual analyst level, i.e., there are more and less precise macroeconomic analysts. Exploiting these quality differences is a desirable task, because academics would obtain better proxy measures for market participants' expectations, and for investors an information advantage should translate into higher profits. We argue that if an indicator's idiosyncratic predictability is low, i.e., the series is almost not predictable, for instance due to information constrains and very volatile processes, then analysts' forecast performance is rather random than systematic because skills cannot take effect. In contrast, if a macroeconomic indicator has a high idiosyncratic predictability, then analysts with certain characteristics benefit from their abilities and skills, and generate more precise forecasts than less skilled analysts. Accordingly, for the unpredictable indicators the relation between analyst characteristics and forecast accuracy should be less pronounced than for the predictable ones. Consequently, we hypothesize that the idiosyncratic predictability of a certain macroeconomic indicator has to be taken into account whenever the relation between analyst characteristics and forecast accuracy is analyzed. So far there is only contradictory evidence concerning differences in individual forecast quality of macroeconomic analysts. While some studies provide evidence for different forecast quality among individual macroeconomic analysts (e.g. Zarnowitz, 1984; McNees, 1987; Zarnowitz and Braun, 1993; Kolb and Stekler, 1996; Brown et al., 2008) other articles come to the opposite conclusion (e.g. Stekler, 1987; Ashiya, 2006). Despite this disagreement, the relation between macroeconomic forecast accuracy differences and analyst characteristics has not been analyzed so far, although the extensive strand of literature analyzing the association of equity analyst characteristics and earnings per share forecast accuracy (e.g. Clement, 1999; Clement and Tse, 2005; Brown and Mohammad, 2010) provides a sound framework for an analysis. Most importantly, we find that model performance heavily depends on the idiosyncratic predictability of macroeconomic indicators. With decreasing idiosyncratic predictability the relevance of analyst characteristics for forecast accuracy diminishes for some characteristics and disappears for others. In terms of economic significance we find substantial differences between macroeconomic indicators with high and low idiosyncratic predictability. Consequently, our results show that the idiosyncratic predictability of a given forecast target has to be taken into account when the association between analyst characteristics and forecast accuracy is analyzed. Our findings have implications for different research areas. Most importantly we directly add to the literature analyzing individual macroeconomic analysts' forecast performance. We provide evidence that the idiosyncratic predictability of an indicator has to be taken into account if the relation between analyst characteristics and forecast accuracy is analyzed. Differentiation among analysts is only very limited if the figure to be forecasted is virtually unpredictable, because analysts do not benefit from their abilities and experiences. Systematic forecast accuracy differences arise if the forecast target is predictable at all and more skilled analysts have the opportunity to differentiate themselves form less skilled ones based on superior skills. Since there are differences in the predictability of company earnings our framework is transferable. Analogous to our findings for macroeconomic analysts, we expect that idiosyncratic predictability plays an equally important role analyzing the association between equity analysts' characteristics and their earnings per share forecast performance, i.e., for company earnings with higher idiosyncratic predictability we expect higher heterogeneity in forecast accuracy which can be explained by analyst characteristics. The first two essays provide evidence that macroeconomic predictions are in general of high quality as they incorporate rationally information from various sources. Besides the previously analyzed macroeconomic forecasts, agents such as politicians and employers, also heavily rely on other information, for example, on coincident and leading macroeconomic indicators. Determining the current state of the economy and obtaining sound projections about future overall macroeconomic developments plays an important role in their decision processes. Coincident and leading macroeconomic indicators incorporate a large set of macroeconomic variables as well as stock and bond market measures, e.g., returns and interest rate spreads. However, there is no evidence about how expectations at the microeconomic level relate to expectations at the macroeconomic level. Consequently, an aggregate of microeconomic expectation data, i.e., individual company expectations, are not included in coincident and leading macroeconomic indicators so far. To overcome this shortcoming we introduce a bottom-up approach that aggregates individual company expectations to derive macroeconomic content. Since the development of the entire economy is closely related to the development of its individual parts, among them individual companies, aggregated company information must contain macroeconomic information. Unfortunately, there is no database containing managements' expectations, however, we use equity analysts' outputs as proxy measure. Equity analysts' information sets comprise public macroeconomic-, industry- and company-specific content as well as non-public company-specific information (Grossman and Stiglitz, 1980) and is therefore arguably the best available proxy for managements' expectations. Regarding the choice of the best analyst's output we use recommendation changes instead of earnings per share (EPS) changes, because recommendations comprise more information. Besides the one year earnings estimate, recommendations also contain a series of future earnings expectations as well as interest rate and risk premium expectations. We show that aggregated recommendation changes as proxy measure for changing company outlooks have predictive power for overall economic developments. Our results provide evidence that aggregated recommendation changes, which approximate changing expectations about individual companies' economic prospects, have predictive power for future macroeconomic developments of about one year. Controlling for other well established macroeconomic predictors our results remain robust indicating that our measure contains additional independent information. Consequently, it seems promising to include our new predictor into the set of macroeconomic predictors in future applications. Additionally, we find that EPS changes have no predictive power lending support to our assumption that more forward looking information, as included in recommendation changes, is required if one attempts to forecast future macroeconomic developments. Furthermore, our findings provide the missing link between previous studies showing that aggregated analyst outputs have predictive power for overall stock market developments (Howe et al., 2009) and those showing that the stock market leads the real economy (Stock and Watson, 1998). Our results support the notion that changes in expectations about future company performance rationally determine asset values in advance of overall economic activity changes providing the explanation why stock markets lead the real economy. Overall, the three essays in this thesis advance different strands of literature. We show that macroeconomic consensus forecasts are a reliable proxy measure for market participants' expectations. Furthermore, our results provide strong evidence that it is dangerous to transfer psychological experiments into time series frameworks without appropriately controlling the informational environment. Additionally, we show that the idiosyncratic predictability of a given forecast objective, i.e. whether a forecast task is satisfyingly feasible at all, has to be taken into account whenever the association between analyst characteristics and forecast accuracy is analyzed. Macroeconomic analysts do only benefit from their superior skills compared to their competitors if the macroeconomic series is idiosyncratically predictable. For unpredictable series, forecast accuracy is rather random than systematic, because superior skills do not systematically translate in better forecasts. Finally, we show that the aggregation of forecasts on the microeconomic level, i.e., company expectations, is a promising approach to extract macroeconomic information. Overall, we conclude that macroeconomic analysts are very efficient information processors and play an important role as intermediaries in financial markets.

Human activity has been impacting marine ecosystems for millennia, and fishing is most often seen as the cause of overexploitation and depletion of marine biological resources (Myers and Worm 2003, Salomon 2009). There is a wealth of recent studies illustrating how our perception of pristine conditions in the seas and oceans has shifted over generations. This is referred to as 'Shifting Baselines'. A wide range of evidence about (pre) historical reference conditions and early baselines has increased the awareness on the limitations associated with the current scientific methods to determine appropriate reference conditions against which current targets for conservation and management are set, in particular for fisheries (Pinnegar and Engelhard 2008). It is acknowledged that environmental reference conditions and targets must strive to integrate all available and relevant data and information for improved assessments, including incorporating historical data into conservation and management frameworks (Pinnegar and Engelhard 2008, McClenachan et al. 2012). Historical data can contribute in explaining underlying cause-effect relations in changes in the ecosystems, potentially reveal information and knowledge from past conditions (Jackson et al. 2001), and help defining reference conditions and achievable targets for environmental management today. The present thesis focuses on quantitative data to extend the timeframe of current analyses on fisheries (landings, fleet dynamics, spatial dynamics, indexes of productivity of the fleet and impact of fishing) and on the reconstruction of historical timeseries to expand our knowledge on historical references for the Belgian sea fisheries. In achieving this, it intends to counter the concept of 'Shifting Baselines' applied to the Belgian Sea fisheries. The 'Historical Fisheries Database' (HiFiDatabase) is a product of this thesis. It is the result of a thorough search, rescue, inventory, standardization and integration of data for Belgium's sea fisheries that were not available before in the public domain or were not available before in the appropriate format for redistribution. It is documented and stored in the Marine Data Archive of Flanders Marine Institute and is freely available for end-users. It contains a unique and substantial collection of time series with standardized species names, reporting units, fishing areas and ports of landing (Lescrauwaet et al. 2010b). It is a 'living' product in the sense that new, relevant, quality-controlled time-series can be added as they are discovered or produced. Considering the relative size of the fleet, the short coastline and the limited number of fish auctions and fishing ports in Belgium, it is fair to say that the present reconstruction of Belgian sea fisheries depicts a relatively complete picture of historical volume, value and composition of landings, fleet dynamics, fishing effort and spatial dynamics. The project and its methodology offer a blueprint for similar reconstructions in other countries. The reconstructed time-series indicate that, since the onset of systematic reporting mechanisms in Belgium in 1929, landings reported by the Belgian sea fisheries both in foreign and in Belgian ports amounted to 3.3 million tonnes (t). After a maximum of 80,000 t in 1947, annual landings declined steadily to only 26% of this peak by 2008 (Lescrauwaet et al. 2010a). The most important species over the observed period in terms of landings were cod (17% of all landings) and herring (16%), closely followed by plaice (14%), sole (8%), whiting (6%) and rays (6%). In terms of economic value and based on values corrected for inflation, sole (31%) and cod (15%) were the most valuable, closely followed by plaice (11%), brown shrimp (5%), rays (5%) and turbot (3%). Near to 73% of all landings originated from 5 of the 31 fishing areas. Twenty percent of all landings originated from the 'coastal waters', while these waters contributed nearly 60% of all landed pelagic species and 55% of all landed 'molluscs and crustaceans'. The North Sea (south) and the Iceland Sea were next in importance with 17% and 16% of all landings respectively. The eastern and western part of the central North Sea, contributed each with approximately 10% of the total landings (Lescrauwaet et al. 2010a). The Belgian fisheries have followed a development of 3 major successive exploitation phases in which 3 major target species or target species groups were exploited until events or processes triggered a transition to a new phase: a 'herring' period between 1929 and 1950, a 'cod' (and other gadoid and roundfish) period between 1950 and 1980 and a period marked by plaice/sole between 1980 and 2000 (and after). This successive exploitation of targeted species was also associated with exploited fishing grounds, successively the Coastal waters for herring, the Icelandic Sea for cod, the North Sea south and the North Sea central (east and west) for sole/plaice, later also complemented by the 'western waters' (English Channel, Bristol Channel, Irish Sea) for the flatfish fisheries. To understand and interpret the trends in landings and changes in target species (groups), it is crucial to look at trends and changes in the fishing fleet and the fishing sector inserted in a wider socio-economic and political context. In the present thesis work, a reconstruction was made of the fleet size (from 1830), tonnage (from 1842) and engine power (kW from 1912) of the Belgian sea fisheries fleet. The time-series show a 85% decrease in fleet size and a 5% decrease in overall engine power (kW) since WWII. This decrease was compensated by a 10-fold increase in average tonnage (GT) per vessel and a 6-fold increase in average engine power (kW) per vessel. In only 10 years time after WWII, the fleet size decreased from approximately 550 to 450 vessels in 1955 (Lescrauwaet et al. 2012). Between 1955 and 1970 major structural changes took place in the Belgian sea fisheries fleet. These changes were driven first by the shift in the main fishing activities towards Icelandic waters in the 1950s and in the early 1960s by the governmental subsidies for the purchase of new steel hulled medium-sized motor trawlers and the introduction of the beam-trawl (Poppe 1977, Lescrauwaet et al. 2012). This led to less but more powerful vessels: between 1960 and 1975 the fleet size declined from 430 to approximately 250 vessels (-42%). The decline in fleet size was exacerbated when Iceland demarcated its territorial waters from 12 nm to 50 nm in 1972 and when the presence of Belgian fishermen within the declared 200 nm EEZ of Icelandic waters became subject to a 'phase-out' in 1975 (Lescrauwaet et al. under review). As a consequence of the loss of the Icelandic waters towards 1980, Belgian vessels shifted their activities again towards the central part of the North Sea (Omey 1982) and - to a lesser extent - towards the English Channel, Bristol Channel, South and West Ireland and the Irish Sea. From 2000 onwards specific programmes were oriented to the decommissioning of ships with the aim to reduce fleet capacity. In 2012, the Belgian commercial sea fishing fleet counted 86 ships, with a total engine capacity of 49,135 kW and gross tonnage of 15,326 GT (Roegiers et al. 2013). The reconstructed time-series suggest that total landings decreased with total fleet size and with total fishing effort. At the level of the Belgian fleet, the total number of days spent at sea decreased from approximately 91,800 days in 1938 to 15,100 days in 2010 (-84%). The landings (kg) per vessel per day at sea or per day fishing have doubled between 1938 and 2010. The time-series shows at least 4 successive events: a first event (1939-1945) marked by WWII and the increased landings of herring in coastal waters. The exceptionally high landings per unit of effort are partly explained by the cessation of large-scale herring fisheries in the North Sea during WWII combined with the effects of two strong year classes. The second period is situated in 1951-1955 and coincides with the steep increase in landings from Icelandic waters. Thirdly, an increase in landings is observed between 1960 and 1967, which coincides with the state subsidies to introduce the beam trawl firstly in shrimp vessels (1959-1960) and later for flatfish fisheries. A final conspicuous event concerns the period of increased levels of landings per vessel per day between 1977 and 1986. After standardization as landings per unit of installed power (LPUP) to account for the average increase (x6) of engine power per vessel, the landings have decreased by 74% from an average 1,3 t /installed kW in 1944-1947 to 0,38 t /installed kW in 2009-2010. Interestingly, the average price of landings (all species, all areas , all fisheries aggregated) is negatively correlated with the decreasing fishing effort and decrease in overall landings. This suggests that the Belgian sea fisheries compensated for the losses by targeting species that achieve better market prices. Although the LPUP are illustrative of the changes in the productivity of fisheries, they cannot be interpreted as a proxy of change in biomass of commercial fish stocks, because the Belgian fisheries have targeted different species and fishing areas over time. Trend analysis to study change in fish stocks must be conducted at the level of different métiers or fisheries, taking into account issues such as specificity and selectivity of gear, environmental conditions in the targeted fishing area, seasonality of fishing and behavior of target species. In the present thesis, a closer look was taken at the impact of sea fisheries. In a first part, a quantitative approach was taken to reconstruct total removals by Belgian sea fisheries by including the unreported and misreported landings of commercial and recreational fishing, as well as an estimation of discards. The methodology applied in this reconstruction can serve as a blueprint for similar reconstructions in other countries. The results are useful to inform current policy issues and societal challenges. This reconstruction covers 6 fisheries with historical or current importance for Belgium (Lescrauwaet et al. 2013). Total reconstructed removals were estimated at 5.2 million t or 42% higher than the 3.7 million t publicly reported over this period. Unreported landings and discards were estimated to represent respectively 3.5% (0.2 million t) and 26% (1.3 million t) of these total reconstructed removals. During the WWII, the Belgian fisheries benefited a 10-fold increase in catches and 5-fold increase in LPUE of North Sea 'Downs' herring. In the present thesis, these increased catches were explained by the combined effects of a major increase in catch power after WWI, the effects of the cessation of large-scale herring fisheries in the central part of the North Sea and by the effects of strong pre-WWII year classes (Lescrauwaet et al. revised manuscript under review). A third subchapter focused on the otter trawl fishery in Icelandic waters targeting cod. This fishery was of great economic importance in Belgium but decreased with the 'cod wars' (1958 and 1972) coming finally to a complete end in 1996. While the decline in total landings from Icelandic waters started after Iceland expanded its EEZ in 1958, the fishing effort of the Belgian fleet continued to increase until a peak was reached in 1963. The results show that the decline in the Iceland cod stock was visible at different levels; the decrease in the proportional importance of cod in the overall landings, the 75% decrease in the LPUE (1946-1983), the decline in the proportion of 'large' fishes, and finally the decline or shift in the definition of a 'large' specimen. As a result of this thesis, unique data are presented on the trends in volume and composition of landings for the Belgian part of the North Sea (BNS). The waters of the BNS are considered as the most important fishing area in terms of source of food for local population, but also as the most stable provider of food. The BNS and in particular the ecosystem of shallow underwater sandbanks is also important as (post)spawning and nursery area (Leloup and Gilis 1961, Gilis 1961, Leloup and Gilis 1965, Rabaut et.al 2007). The HiFiDatabase broadens the historical view on fisheries and serves as a basis for a range of potential research, management applications, and in support of policy-making. In particular, the time-series provide unique historical reference conditions of fishing in the Belgian part of the North Sea and a potential baseline for fisheries management in territorial waters or for the coastal fisheries. The latter is useful in the context of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive, the EU Habitat Directive and the proposal for Maritime Spatial Planning on the Belgian part of the North Sea. Finally in the present thesis work, important efforts were dedicated to approach the history of fisheries from different disciplines of work. The results underline the importance of collecting economic data, inventorying historical archives and historical legislation, historical economy and politics, in order to improve the interpretation and analysis of results. As advocated by the current integrated policies for the marine environment, both the challenge of the task and the richness of the results rely on a multidisciplinary approach.

Europa está preocupada por la situación en Rumania donde su primer ministro ha tomado recientemente una serie de medidas institucionales a fuerza de decreto, lo que para algunos se constituye en un virtual estado de suspensión constitucional. El problema, que de por sí preocupa, adquiere un cariz más inquietante dado que se suma —en esa misma región del continente— al caso húngaro, que la Unión Europea todavía está procesando (y digiriendo, se diría).Hungría está gobernada desde el 2010 por el partido Fidesz (Alianza de Jóvenes Demócratas). Fidesz se autoconsidera un partido de centro derecha aunque el ejercicio mismo del gobierno parece aproximarlo al extremismo de derecha, juicio solo posible de relativizar dado que en ese extremo del espectro político existe la peor de las pesadillas, un partido declaradamente xenófobo y antisemita como el Jobbik (Movimiento para una Hungría Mejor). En las elecciones del 25 de abril de 2010, Fidesz obtiene más de dos tercios de los escaños del Parlamento. A pesar de que obtuvo un 53% de votos, un peculiar régimen electoral, donde coexisten escaños electos por representación proporcional y otros por circunscripciones uninominales, le permitió alcanzar esa mayoría parlamentaria que no reconoce antecedentes desde la caída del comunismo. Tamaña mayoría le permite a Fidesz gobernar en solitario, incluyendo el hecho de poder legislar a nivel de Constitución. El Partido Socialista cayó al 19% desde una votación del 43% en el 2006. El mencionado partido de extrema derecha obtuvo un 17%, creciendo respecto a aquella elección en la que no había ni siquiera alcanzado la barrera el 5%, en un hecho que reconoce casos similares por toda Europa.El gobierno húngaro del primer ministro Viktor Orban fue adoptando merced a la abrumadora mayoría una serie de medidas de corte nacionalista, talante conservador y naturaleza autoritaria, todos instrumentos de lo que se concibe como un proceso de refundación del país, según propias palabras de Orban. La primera llamada de atención fue a pocos días de asumir el gobierno cuando se despacha con una legislación que otorga la nacionalidad húngara a todos los que puedan probar sus orígenes maggiares sin que pierdan por ello la nacionalidad que tuvieran en la actualidad. Se calcula en tres millones la cantidad de habitantes del centro y este europeo que podrían acceder a la nacionalidad húngara y que hoy viven en los territorios que pertenecieron a Hungría antes de la Primera Guerra Mundial. Esa especie de apelación a la "Gran Hungría" no cayó en gracia en los países vecinos que tuvieron la sensación de estar frente a los primeros pasos de una futura reivindicación territorial basada en fronteras étnicas, lo que parece retrotraerse a épocas desagradables. Aunque se estuviera ante una hipótesis improbable, también es cierto que la medida pintó de cuerpo entero al gobierno húngaro.Luego se acumularon un conjunto de leyes verdaderamente preocupantes. Entre las más alarmantes se encuentra aquella que limita fuertemente la libertad de prensa. A una autoridad nacional dependiente del gobierno se le faculta para sancionar a los medios de comunicación que publiquen información "no equilibrada", "parcial" u ofensiva para la "dignidad humana", términos suficientemente amplios como para que quepan, como se advirtió, todo lo que le pueda molestar al gobierno. A continuación se redacta una nueva constitución (catalogada de "antediluviana") que contiene normas, entre otras, como la restricción del derecho al voto de aquellos con "capacidades mentales limitadas", la intangibilidad de la vida desde la fecundación (está vigente la ley que despenaliza el aborto dentro de las 12 semanas) y la consideración de la unión entre el hombre y la mujer como la única posible. Asimismo, se legisló concediendo reconocimiento exclusivamente a sólo catorce iglesias (cristianas y la judía), haciendo perder el estatus de tales a credos como el musulmán, budista, hinduista, adventistas y baptistas, los que deberán volver a tramitar su reconocimiento luego de cumplir ciertos requisitos e, inconcebiblemente, someterse a la aprobación —o no, quizá— del Parlamento. También se estableció la pena de prisión para las personas que vivan en la calle y que no quieran pernoctar en los centros de atención. Paradójicamente, los centros existentes no tienen la capacidad de recibirlos a todos. En un uso de la historia con objetivos políticos, se declaró inocente al pueblo húngaro de los crímenes cometidos por el Estado entre la ocupación nazi en 1944 y el fin del comunismo en 1990 y, peor aún, se consideró por ley al Partido Socialista como el heredero del régimen comunista. El Partido Socialista efectivamente fue fundado por militantes del Partido Socialista Obrero Húngaro, el partido único durante el período comunista, aunque evolucionó hacia la social democracia y se desprendió de los sectores más duros. De cualquier manera, llevar a términos normativos lo que debería estar radicado únicamente en la dialéctica política, habla de una intención avasalladora hacia quienes justamente son la oposición al gobierno. Por otro lado, la nueva Constitución limitó la capacidad del Tribunal Constitucional al enajenarle de sus competencias la de controlar asuntos presupuestales, casualmente poco tiempo después que el Tribunal había invalidado una medida económica del Ejecutivo. Más tarde se afectó la independencia del Banco Central cambiando la composición del directorio al añadirle delegados directos del gobierno. El último intento de controlar al Banco fue la creación de una figura institucional por encima de la autoridad bancocentralista de una única persona designada por el Ejecutivo. Entre tanto, los agravios proferidos al presidente del Banco Central procurando su renuncia rayaron la grosería, seguramente provocada por la desesperación de quedarse con un cargo que al regirse por otros plazos de ejercicio estará en funciones hasta avanzado el 2013. En una afectación de la independencia del Poder Judicial, se rebajó la edad de retiro obligatorio de los magistrados de los 70 a los 62 años. Esto provocó que muchos magistrados tuvieran que dejar sus puestos, los que fueron cubiertos con fieles al gobierno. Como remate, se modificó la legislación electoral y se cambiaron las circunscripciones de tal manera que el que podría ser beneficiado sería el partido de gobierno. Más allá de que efectivamente esto es lo que termine sucediendo, utilizar las mayorías para cambiar las reglas electorales a medida no es ético. En síntesis, las medidas —mencionadas deliberadamente sin pausa— son una catarata de normas arbitrarias que apuntan a la concentración de poder.A partir del mismo comienzo del actual gobierno húngaro, la Unión Europea ha expresado por parte de diversos voceros su preocupación por la calidad de la democracia en Hungría, sin alcanzar el punto de cuestionar al régimen mismo como antidemocrático. Probablemente, como sostuvo el líder de los socialistas europeos, es duro para la Unión Europea tener que admitir que se cuenta con un estado no democrático como uno de sus miembros. Algunas voces del Parlamento europeo fueron muy críticas, como la del popular Daniel Cohn Bendit —"Dany el rojo" en el Mayo del 68— quien llegó a acusar a Orban de ir "en la misma dirección de Chávez, Castro y todos esos regímenes totalitarios y autoritarios".Cada medida adoptada por el gobierno maggiar reforzaba las críticas por su autoritarismo al tiempo de acrecentarlas hacia la misma Comisión Europea por lo que comenzaba a entenderse como un perfil demasiado bajo en el tema. Se especulaba que la Comisión pretendía manejarse con pies de plomo para no aumentar los problemas económicos de Hungría que, pese a no pertenecer a la Zona Euro, su quiebre podía terminar afectándola. La explicación no alcanzaba a satisfacer porque se sostenía que de este modo sólo se "alimentaba a las fieras". Los críticos a la Comisión Europea por su lentitud en encarar la cuestión húngara destacaban que la Unión Europea no es solo una unión comercial sino que antes que cualquier otra cosa es una unidad política basada en determinados valores, que los Tratados reconocen y que Hungría desconoce. Hungría había ingresado a la Unión el 1º de mayo de 2004 y algunos entendidos han afirmado que en las condiciones actuales el país maggiar no hubiera podido ingresar. Pero el problema es que ya está adentro.Finalmente la Comisión Europea inicia en enero de este año un procedimiento de infracción para que Budapest rectifique sus rumbos so pena de ser sancionada si no lo hace en consonancia con el Tratado de la Unión Europea. Al mismo tiempo, sin ligarlas explícitamente, inicia una serie de medidas de carácter financiero suspendiendo contactos que se iban a llevar a cabo para conceder nuevos créditos y aumentando las presiones para la reducción del déficit a los estándares que la Unión determina para sus miembros ante las dudas de que lo estuvieran "maquillando". La reacción del primer ministro Orban fue destemplada comparando a Bruselas con la Viena de los Habsburgo o la Moscú soviética al grito de "¡No seremos una colonia!". Fuera de los micrófonos, el gobierno promete realizar los cambios requeridos.Sin embargo, la clave del proceso radica en los asuntos por los que Bruselas abrió el proceso infraccional. Estos fueron: la afectación de la independencia del Banco Central, la ley que adelanta la jubilación de los jueces y por la afectación de la autonomía de la autoridad de protección de datos. Ninguno de los asuntos refiere a aspectos netamente deontológicos como los que emanan del Tratado de la Unión Europea, modificados hace bien poco en el 2007 por el Tratado de Lisboa y ratificados naturalmente por Hungría. En el mencionado Tratado se puede leer:"La Unión se fundamenta en los valores de respeto de la dignidad humana, libertad, democracia, igualdad, Estado de Derecho y respeto de los derechos humanos, incluidos los derechos de las personas pertenecientes a minorías. Estos valores son comunes a los Estados miembros en una sociedad caracterizada por el pluralismo, la no discriminación, la tolerancia, la justicia, la solidaridad y la igualdad entre mujeres y hombres" (Artículo 2)."A propuesta motivada de un tercio de los Estados miembros, del Parlamento Europeo o de la Comisión, el Consejo, por mayoría de cuatro quintos de sus miembros y previa aprobación del Parlamento Europeo, podrá constatar la existencia de un riesgo claro de violación grave por parte de un Estado miembro de los valores contemplados en el artículo 2" (Artículo 7).Es cierto que las objeciones planteadas por la Comisión Europea fueron respecto a temas más concretos y por lo tanto más factibles de comprobar su violación así como sus enmiendas. Sin embargo, la ausencia a referirse concretamente a aspectos flagrantemente violatorios de los derechos humanos esenciales es cuestionable. En abril la Comisión Europea cierra el proceso de infracción respecto al asunto del Banco Central, luego de algunos cambios del gobierno húngaro en la legislación que a juicio de la Comisión fueron suficientes. Respecto a la edad jubilatoria de los jueces y la protección de datos, la Comisión entendió que Budapest no había adoptado las medidas del caso y pasó el asunto al Tribunal de Justicia con sede en Luxemburgo.Toda la Unión Europea, su esencia, su vocación, el espíritu bajo el cual se creó y se extendió en un continente que vivió dos guerras mundiales y la dominación comunista, es puesta en el banquillo ante las señales que ofrece o deja de ofrecer ante un país que notoriamente rompe con los fundamentos de la Unión. La Unión ya había actuado en el 2000 cuando en Holanda asume un gobierno cuya coalición estaba integrada por un partido de inspiración nazi, pero que ni siquiera alcanzó a tomar tantas medidas cuestionables ni duro tanto como para generarle un problema mayor a la propia Unión. Quizá se esté esperando que los resultados electorales de 2014 le saquen el problema. Las encuestas parecen indicar un descenso pronunciado de la popularidad del gobierno húngaro, cuya explicación se encuentra en los problemas económicos y en los nuevos impuestos. Aunque la solución puede no ser tal si los extremistas de derecha confirman en las urnas lo que las crecientes intenciones de voto parecen pronosticar.Mientras tanto por toda Hungría se desarrollan homenajes a Horthy, el gobernante húngaro que se alió a Hitler y es el responsable del asesinato de al menos 400.000 judíos. Sobre el autorLicenciado en Ciencia Política. Universidad de la República.