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The Philippine Economic Update (PEU) provides an update on key economic and social developments, as well as policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank studies on the Philippines. It places them in a longer term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and policies on the outlook for the Philippines. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy and financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in the Philippines. Poverty reduction is expected to continue if the country is able to maintain the relatively high economic growth and the more positive job trends in recent years, despite recent shocks to agriculture. Recent trends show an improvement in the country's growth-poverty elasticity, which means growth is becoming more inclusive. However, the recent increase in the underemployment rate and weak agricultural output in 2016 will need to be countered by sustained increase in per capita income growth and a continued focus on supporting the structurally poor through effective social protection programs. Under these assumptions, extreme poverty is projected to further decrease from nine percent in 2014 to 6.8 percent in 2018.

South Asia emerged as the fastest growing region in the world in 2015, posting GDP growth of 7 percent. Weak oil and commodity prices, slowing capital flows and shrinking global trade contributed towards a deceleration of growth in most of the world's economies. South Asia - as a net importer of oil - was an anomaly, growing significantly on the back of higher private consumption and public investment. Higher remittances and reserve buffers throughout the region offset the fall in exports caused by the drop in global demand. The region is set to maintain real GDP growth above 7 percent over the next few years. However, the tailwinds are now fading - capital flows have declined and remittances are starting to feel the reality of low oil prices. Pakistan, while not growing as quickly as its neighbors, has continued its steady growth recovery in H1FY16. Strong growth in consumption, rising foreign exchange reserves, fast-growing workers' remittances and a lower import bill compensated for a significant fall in exports. Low oil prices generated a significant boost, driving a 9.1 percent fall in the import bill and reducing inflation significantly, in turn creating scope to reduce the policy rate. Private sector consumption, propelled by higher remittances and a loosened monetary policy, is expected to account for over half of FY16 GDP growth.

Kenya's economic performance remains solid, underpinned by strong infrastructure spending and consumer demand, which are driving growth. Growth in 2015 is estimated at 5.4 percent, a 0.6 percent downward revision from its estimate in December 2014. The revision reflects the strong headwinds the economy is facing in the foreign exchange market and the monetary policy response to calm those fears.

Panama's economic growth has been at the top of the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region in recent years. The country s rapid growth has been largely pro-poor and translated into significant poverty reduction. The new Administration is well placed to tackle these challenges, with its commitment to maintaining an open and diversified economy and redressing social imbalances. Looking ahead, the country s main challenges are to maintain the current growth performance and ensure that its benefits are extended to all. The World Bank Group s (WBG) new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) seeks to support Panama s continued high growth, while ensuring inclusion and opportunities for marginalized groups, and bolstering resilience and sustainability. These themes are highlighted as priorities in the Government s 2014-2019 Strategic Development Plan (SDP) and in the WBG s Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD). The CPF seeks to maximize over a six-year period, the comparative advantages of the WBG, through packages of innovative public and private financing options based on cutting edge global knowledge and experience.

This note aims to build understanding of the existing disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) tools in use in Fiji and to identify gaps where potential engagement could further develop financial resilience. In addition the note aims to encourage peer exchange of regional knowledge, specifically by encouraging dialogue on past experiences, lessons learned, optimal use of these financial tools, and the effect they may have on the execution of post-disaster funds. In 2012 alone Fiji experienced three major events with estimated total damage of F$146 million (US$78 million). Fiji is expected to incur, on average over the long term, annual losses of F$158 million (US$85 million) due to earthquakes and tropical cyclones. In the next 50 years Fiji has a 50 percent chance of experiencing a loss exceeding F$1,500 million (US$806 million). The country has a taken a proactive approach to DRFI and developed a finance manual for post-disaster budget execution. The government now has F$3 million (US$1.6 million) available in DRFI instruments to facilitate disaster response and also implemented tax concessions to encourage donations in the wake of tropical cyclone Evan. A number of options to support ongoing DRFI improvements in Fiji are presented for consideration: (a) the finance manual developed by the Ministry of Finance for post-disaster procedures should be finalized, and cabinet approval should be sought; (b) an overarching disaster risk financing and insurance strategy should be developed that includes options for risk transfer; and (c) assets should be identified in order to develop an insurance program for critical public assets.

This Fifth Edition of the Uganda Economic Update presents evidence that if the urbanization process is well managed, it has the potential to stimulate economic growth and to provide productive jobs for a greater proportion of Uganda's young and rapidly expanding population. In many countries across the world, the growth of cities has stimulated the establishment and expansion of productive businesses by reducing the distance between suppliers and customers. The growth of cities has also facilitated provision of social services and infrastructure through economies of scale. These positive effects from urbanization are already visible in Uganda since the poverty rate is seven percentage points lower in urban areas than in rural areas. Most of the recent job creation is found in cities, and social indicators are also better in urban areas, especially in education and health.

The Pakistani economy faced four major domestic shocks as of April 2015: (i) a political sit-in by opposition parties in Islamabad that lasted between August and December and raised significant political uncertainty; (ii) the September floods in Punjab that affected agricultural crops; (iii) the postponed sale of Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) equity shares in November that reduced its expected privatization proceeds and foreign direct inflows (FDI); and (iv) the terrorist attack in a school in Peshawar that heightened security concerns. However, supported by a favorable slump in international oil prices, and steady implementation of structural reforms by the government, the economy is improving. Preliminary data for the first half of FY15 show growth picking up, driven mainly by strong performance in the agriculture and services sectors. Despite the floods last year, growth improved in the cotton, wheat, and rice crops. The services sector was boosted by transport, storage, communications, finance, and insurance. On the demand side, growth continues to be driven by private consumption partly fuelled by high remittance inflows. Credit to the private sector continued to grow, but slightly less rapidly than last year: as a percentage of GDP, it fell to 13.4 percent in January 2015 compared with 14.1 percent in January 2014. Pakistan is on track to meet a fiscal deficit target of 4.8 percent of GDP in FY15. The newly elected government appears to be committed to fiscal discipline and has made fiscal consolidation the cornerstone of its economic program supported by the IMF, the World Bank and other donors. At present, Pakistan is facing three sources of risk: first is the prospect of an early reversal of the fall in oil prices. Second is the repeat of political events of the first half that keep FDI flows and private investment low; and also affects foreign reserves, privatization program and growth prospects. An uncertain political environment undermines investor confidence and depresses economic activity. Third is the continuation of a troubled domestic energy sector that continues to endure a long-due complex inheritance on its circular debt. Given past trends and the current growth rate, poverty is expected to continue to fall and shared prosperity to improve in this and the next fiscal year. However, a large mass of the population is clustered around the official poverty line, so that small improvements in household real consumption can translate into substantial movement in poverty in either direction.

The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Lebanon continues to be impacted by the domestic political stalemate and regional turmoil, particularly along its border with Syria. Economic activity picked up in the second half of 2014. Stronger economic performance and lower oil prices pushed real GDP growth to an estimated 2.0 percent in 2014, compared to 0.9 percent in 2013. One-off cosmetic and unsustainable measures rather than policy actions helped improve the fiscal balance in 2014. We estimate the overall fiscal deficit to have declined by 2.3 percentage points. Declining imports lead an improvement in the current account balance. In 2014, a fall in merchandize imports induced a 4.4 pp reduction in the current account deficit to a still-elevated 22.2 percent of GDP. This trend is projected to continue in 2015 helped by falling oil prices and a depreciating euro, Headline inflation plummeted from 2.7 percent in 2013 to 1.9 percent in 2014 and is expected to remain tempered over the medium term. Lebanon s economy continues to be exposed to external shocks. The border with Syria is increasingly menacing as coordinated attacks by ISIS and Al Nusra are being launched more frequently from their bases in Syria. Inefficiencies in power generation impose sizable macroeconomic costs on Lebanon. The Lebanese electricity sector has been underperforming for decades with considerable socio-economic costs. The macroeconomic impact has been massive.

This agriculture public expenditure review (AgPER) provides key background information and guidance in this endeavor by presenting and analyzing historic data on public spending on agriculture, examining the efficiency of spending, and identifying areas where additional funds can be applied effectively to achieve national agricultural policy and comprehensive Africa agriculture development program (CAADP) objectives. The goals of the AgPER in Sierra Leone are as follows: gain a better understanding of the countrys performance in the context of the 2003 Maputo declaration; draw lessons from the past in terms of budget execution in the agricultural sector and identify bottlenecks, inefficiencies, and deviations from goals; seek and recommend corrective actions for existing and future programs with a view to improving their impact and making them more efficient and equitable; initiate the implementation of the databases and methodology required for conducting similar reviews regularly and thus contribute to the institutionalization of the process; help the government establish an environment and capabilities for results-based management, with particular emphasis on improving planning, execution, and monitoring and evaluation; and increase visibility for the government and the financial and technical partners over the sectors absorptive capacity so that the decision may be made to allocate more resources to agricultural development. This report consists of five chapters: first chapter introduces the strategic and institutional context; second chapter studies the level of public agricultural expenditure in Sierra Leone; third chapter analyzes the economic and functional composition of public agricultural expenditure (allocative efficiency); fourth chapter assesses the technical efficiency of the processes of preparation, execution, and monitoring and evaluation of agricultural budgets; and fifth chapter contains our findings and recommendations.

This Fifth Edition of the Uganda Economic Update presents evidence that if the urbanization process is well managed, it has the potential to stimulate economic growth and to provide productive jobs for a greater proportion of Uganda s young and rapidly expanding population. In many countries across the world, the growth of cities has stimulated the establishment and expansion of productive businesses by reducing the distance between suppliers and customers. The growth of cities has also facilitated provision of social services and infrastructure through economies of scale. These positive effects from urbanization are already visible in Uganda since the poverty rate is seven percentage points lower in urban areas than in rural areas. Most of the recent job creation is found in cities, and social indicators are also better in urban areas, especially in education and health. This report conveys the following key messages: (1) over the past 12 years, the number of people living in Uganda s urban areas has been increasing by an average of 300,000 people per year, (2) during the past few decades, similarly rapid rates of urbanization have been recorded in many emerging countries, (3) as is the case in many other developing countries, the prospects of good jobs, higher incomes and better living conditions in the cities continue to attract Ugandans from rural areas, (4) currently, the opportunity presents itself for Uganda to leverage urbanization to benefit a large proportion of the population, and (5) through the implementation of smart policies, Uganda can ensure that its cities are both competitive and livable.

The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longerterm and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia's medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. This paper discusses about the economic conditions of Indonesia for the year 2015. Emerging market assets rebounded in October 2015 after the sharp losses recorded in August and September, when the uncertainty about the Chinese economic slowdown and the U.S. interest rate outlook was particularly high. Despite a more favorable market sentiment, capital flows to emerging economies have remained weak and borrowing costs relatively high. In addition to tight financing conditions, Indonesia faced subdued external demand for its exports in the near term and persistently low commodity prices over the medium run. In 2015, fire in Indonesia cost nearly twice that of reconstruction following the 2004 tsunami in Aceh. Agriculture and forestry have sustained losses and damages in trillions. Sustained exposure to haze could also lead to the volcano effect, i.e., a decrease in plant productivity in the short term due to limited sun exposure and a deleterious effect on plant physiology and photosynthesis. The recurring nature of Indonesia's fire crisis is of particular concern. Another potential step in Indonesia's new reform process was the country's signaling its intention to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement in the near future. Whether membership materializes or not, the agreement is likely to have a limited impact on trade, because import tariffs in member countries are already low and Indonesia has trade agreements with most of them.

For many years, microfinance has been the poster child of governments, policymakers, and international organizations with the goal of lifting millions of people out of poverty. The notion that microfinance can pursue and achieve the intertwined goals of development and financial profitability without friction predominated. This dual opportunity, combined with a huge untapped market for financial services at the bottom of the pyramid attracted large amounts of funding from international capital markets, triggering unprecedented levels of growth. Until the global financial crisis, the sustainability of the resulting market growth had not been significantly questioned. As the crisis unfolded during the end of 2007, there seemed to be consensus among microfinance practitioners, analysts, and other industry experts that this crisis will be different. The microfinance industry braced itself for anticipated liquidity crunches, increase in costs of funds, and foreign exchange, as well as a sharp rise in portfolio arrears. This paper will: review recent publications that have drawn conclusions on the effects of the global financial crisis based on empirical data research; draw the conclusion that proper governance and risk management systems are essential and can have avoided many of the problems specific microfinance institutions (MFIs) faced during the financial crisis; and highlight Basel framework sections relevant to MFIs and demonstrate how these can be applied to strengthen MFIs.

This is the eleventh edition of the Kenya Economic Update. The special focus of this update examines the structural factors underpinning the poor performance of the manufacturing sector. Drawing on recent firm-level data from the 2010 Industrial Census and the 2013 Enterprise Survey. It investigates the extent to which the sector's lack of dynamism reflects problems in Kenya's business environment, which compares poorly to regional neighbors' on several manufacturing-relevant dimensions. The report has four main messages: First, Kenya begins 2015 in a sound economic position. After growing an estimated 5.4 percent in 2014, its economy is poised to be among the fastest growing in the region, with growth projected at 6.0 percent in 2015, 6.6 percent in 2016, and 7.0 percent in 2017. Second, the external sector remains weak and vulnerable, as import growth continue to outpace export growth and short-term flows finance the current account deficit. The large deficit points to underlying structural weaknesses in Kenya's economy, which need to be addressed. Third, Kenya needs to increase the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector so that it can grow, export, and create much-needed jobs. As a share of GDP, Kenya's manufacturing sector has been stagnant in recent years, and it has lost international market share; lastly, the weak business environmentis a key constraint for the manufacturing sector. Obstacles to doing business affect this sector more than many others because manufacturing needs access to capital for investments, infrastructure to import inputs and export and distribute finished products, affordable and reliable electricity to produce, labor to man operations, and fair and streamlined regulations and trade policies that allow firms to compete.

This report highlights the great potential of the agribusiness sector in Africa by drawing on experience in Africa as well as other regions. The evidence demonstrates that good policies, a conducive business environment, and strategic support from governments can help agribusiness reach its potential. Africa is now at a crossroads, from which it can take concrete steps to realize its potential or continue to lose competitiveness, missing a major opportunity for increased growth, employment, and food security. The report pursues several lines of analysis. First, it synthesizes the large body of work on agriculture and agribusiness in Africa. Second, it builds on a diagnosis of specific value chains. As part of this effort, the value chain for Africa's largest and fastest-growing food import, rice, is benchmarked in Senegal and Ghana against Thailand's rice value chain. Third, 170 agribusiness investments by the Commonwealth Development Corporation (CDC) in Africa and Southeast Asia are analyzed to gain perspective on the elements of success and failure. Fourth, the report synthesizes perspectives from the private sector through interviews with 23 leading agribusiness investors and a number of other key informants. In conclusion, the report offers practical policy advice based on the experience of countries from within and outside Africa. The huge diversity of Africa's agro-ecological, market, and business environments, however, necessarily means that each country (and indeed regions within countries) will need to adapt the broad guidance provided here to the local context. Annex 1, concerning the rice value chain, was authored by John Orchard, Tim Chancellor, Roy Denton, Amadou Abdoulaye Fall, and Peter Jaeger. Annex 2, containing interviews with 23 leading agribusiness players in Africa, was authored by Peter White.

The rural sector, defined here as the economic sector that falls under the scope of the Ministry of Agriculture and Water (MAH), the Ministry of Animal Resources (MRA), and the Ministry of the Environment and Sustainable Development (MEDD), is one of the pillars of the Burkina Faso economy. Although its contribution to GDP has decreased in recent times from 35 percent in 1999 to 30 percent in 2011 due to the development of the other sectors of the economy, agricultural activity still employs approximately 86 percent of Burkina Faso s labor force and is the main source of income for poorer populations. Consequently, the rural sector is among the primary beneficiaries of public expenditures by the Burkina Faso government and constitutes one of the pillars of the Strategy for Accelerated Growth and Sustainable Development (SCADD) adopted in 2010. The goals of this agriculture public expenditure review in Burkina Faso are as follows: draw lessons from the past in terms of budget execution in the agricultural sector in order to promote the design and implementation of public expenditure programs that are more efficient and more equitable and have a greater impact; initiate the implementation of the databases and methodology required to conduct similar reviews regularly and thus contribute to the institutionalization of the process; and contribute to establishing the conditions for increased support for the sector while encouraging the harmonization and alignment of support with respect for national strategies.