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The chief purpose of this handbook is to provide government lawyers with a framework to evaluate the quality of a country's investment legislation (if it exists) and how the legislation relates to its investment policy and investment incentives. More specifically, it deals with creating new and reforming existing investment legislation in developing and transition economies in furtherance of the World Bank Group's (WBG's) mandate to promote private investment - domestic and foreign - in those economies. Handbook appendices contain drafting guidelines and checklist of issues that foreign direct investment (FDI) laws should include and that countries can use when drafting investment legislation. The report is structured as follows: chapter one defines key terms about investment law reform in an effort to clarify terminology and concepts and show how they are related. Chapter two examines how widespread investment codes are and explains their utility and limitations. Chapter three provides recommendations on the structure of investment legislation and the key provisions to be included such as definitions, investors' guarantees, incentives, framework for investment promotion, and transitional provisions. Chapter four discusses the fundamental issue of investor entry, in particular the conditions under which foreign investors can invest including sectoral restrictions, limitations on foreign ownership, authorization and screening, minimum investment, and performance requirements. Chapter five discusses key investor guarantees including fair and equitable treatment, national treatment, most-favored-nation (MFN) treatment, protection against expropriation, guaranteed convertibility and repatriation of profits, and settlement of disputes. Chapter six looks at the issue of investment incentives, (fiscal incentives in particular) and their effectiveness. Chapter seven summarizes key aspects of investment promotion to guide legal drafters, should policymakers want the investment code to set out the basic framework of investment promotion. Chapter eight presents the various phases of investment law reform projects, from the government's request for assistance with legislation to the delivery of a project plan. Chapter nine identifies some of the challenges in preparing an investment code and the support that governments may need until the law is promulgated. Chapter ten discusses the monitoring and evaluation (M and E) of investment law reforms, including the key indicators involved in a desk review and medium- and large-scale projects.

, ri^iiifitiisiiriTrrirraxTTjfxxitrrrTf j,t. '■ ' I* ' i ixxiixu - mj.Jumin-Unxjt-' 'if'.' IJsH/iA ■ j.1 .1H Ml- £1 ri= * -:- THE ~:~ Gettysburg mERGURY. FEBRUARY—MARCH, 1898. CONTENTS: [ Biographical Sketch of Dr. S. S. Schmucker,(continued), P. Austadt, D. D 103 The Kalevala, E. M. Stahl, '94, 108 The Ocean of Sleep, 115 Parasites,. 116 Education Among the General Synod Lutherans in the East, Grayson Z- Stup, A- B., '96 nS American Humor,. 123 A Modern Bellerophon, 129 Look Before You Leap 130 , Winter Crystal, [31 Blossoms, 132 [Sifted from Our Exchanges, 132 Editors' Desk, 135 I Sheer Nonsense, '. : 13S ■ : • ■ ' &: m I. M LLHR, PRINTER GETTYSBURQ. Imjig IIII ! IV Q'BURG C. LIB. I yiii&ai ■i ■^■■H I FAVOR THOSE WHO FAVOR US. J. R. STINE & SON, Qepts' ••• pdrpis^er, CHAMBERSBURG ST. C. B. KITZMILLER, --DEALER IN— flats, fopg, Boots and jSjoeg, GETTYSBURG, PA. Ready for Fall ant Winter. Suits to Order—Prices $12.00 to $35.00; Trousers, #2.50 to $9.00 ALL KINDS OF REPAIRING DONE. All the new effects in Check and i iv.'i- Plaids you will 11 ml at THE LEADING TAILOR, CLOTHIER AND GENTS' FURNISHER, J. H- JVl/ers, 11 Balto. St., Gettysburg, Pa. S. B. ALCOTT, —AGENT l'UR— Browning King & Co., iiiTi-iiiiiii Tailor, New York. Suits #12.00 up, Overcoats #12.00 up, Pants #4.00. Fit and workmanship guaranteed. ■ ~R. A. WONDERS'" Corner Cigar Parlors. A FULL LINE OF Cigars, Tobacco, Pipes, &c. Scott's Cor. Opp. Eagle Hotel, Gettysburg EPH. H, MINNIGH, Manufacturer, Wholesale and Retail Dealer in Confectionery and Ice Cream, Oysters in Season. News Depot & Subscription Agency, MAIN ST. GETTYSBURG, PA. Sole Mauuf r of Dr. Tyler's Congh Drops SAMUEL FABER. FINE CIGARS .AND. SMOKER'S mm. Chambersburg St., GETTYSBURG JOJW Jfl. TO(G)i CONFECTIONERY AND ICE CREAM, OYSTERS STEWED AND FRIED. No: 17, BALTIMORE STREET. COLLEGE OK P^-sldans § Surgeons, BAI.TIMORK.MI>. The College of Physicians ami Surgeons of Baltimore, Maryland, is a well equipped school. Four ses-sions are required for graduation. For full information send for the annual catalogue, or write to THOMAS OPIE, M. D., Dean. Cor. Calvert and Sarato u r~ ■ •f \ \ \3 I S. S. S. SCHMUCKER, D. D. The [jeiifojglHtfij ^eiwij, Entered at the Post Office at Gettysburg as secoud-class matter. VOL. V. GETTYSBURG, PA., FEBRUARY, 1898. No. 10. STAFF: EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, AI.UMNI EDITOR, IV. H. Bruce Carney. ' should take more time to think before we act and not rush on as if there were no future. We must not permit our humor to satisfy our religion nor supersede it. The motto "be temperate in all things" applies here as elsewhere. Humor, the necessary product of our fundamental princi-ples of government, stands to us as an emblem of prosper-ity, wealth, happiness, pleasure, contentment and freedom. It is a wonderful national platform and if not carried to excess we can proudly boast as the most humorous of all people. w. E. B., '99. A MODERN BELLEROPHON. The boy was in a lonely mood, The common fate he shared ; Examination day was nigh And he was unprepared. He pondered long upon the thought How best he might proceed ; For willing though the spirit seemed The flesh was weak indeed. At length o'ercome by doubts and fears, He fell into a dream In which a Senior came to him And told him of a scheme. Said he, "Young man, arise at once, The bridle's by thy side ; Go quickly catch the winged steed And on thy foray ride." Up leaped the lad at break of day, Free from his grave despair ; To fou7itain Pen he sped in haste And caught Pegassus there. He bridled him and mounted him, And rode off with a zest; Assured that some day on his brow The ivy vine would rest. But sad indeed 'tis to relate, This verdant Freshman boy, Unlike Bellerophon of old, No triumphs could enjoy. 130 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. The Prof's, keen eyes in rolling round Soon saw the horse awing; And sending out a gad-fly stare Surprised him by its sting. The jade burst forth iu accents grave, And made a fearful balk ; He threw the lad ; but since I've heard It taught him how to walk. —J. 13. BAKER, 1900. LOOK BEFORE YOU LEAP." When we come to examine the different professions of life, we see many who do not and in fact can not, do honor to themselves nor to the profession in which they are. It is a fact and one much to he lamented that there are men at present in the Christian ministry and other respon-sible positions, whose proper positions would be on the farm or on the road. There is no one profession from the lowest to the high-est, but that is disgraced by men who are not able to fill honestly the positions which they occupy. If there are any who would inquire why this is so, they can themselves find by observation that many of the young of the present day, as it has been in the past, do not look rightly before they enter a profession. Many desiring to become rich as soon as possible, enter any profession whatever, providing it promises riches in the future. They rush forward and do not take into consideration their own qualifications nor the real nature of the vocation. Thus urged on not by reason and judgment, but by the golden fruit of riches, they behold in the distance the tree laden with glittering fruit, and may finally be able to grasp some of the golden apples, but alas ! they find them to be ashes. Either in an unpropitious moment the whole fortune may be taken away, or if it even remains in their hands it will be their eternal ruin. The weary traveler upon the desert journeys along hirsty and fainting, when all at once he beholds in the distant horizon, water glittering in the sun. He is urged THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 131 on by this glorious sight. Yet to his surprise, when he ar-rives at the spot the water is not there, but in some other position; thus as he advances the water recedes, and after some fruitless efforts he finds that he has been de-ceived by the mirage of the desert. Thus it is with these seekers after fame. They may even attain to their object in view but when they have fame it will give them about as much pleasure as the burning sands of the desert give to the weary traveler. The idea that one can enter any profession he desires is false, although we are free agents we must always con-sider before we choose a calling for life. We are not at liberty to do anything carelessly and with indifference. But it is our duty in all matters to act honestly and thoughtfully. It is our duty to examine ourselves truth-fully to see whether we have the real qualifications for the position we are about to assume. We often hear men say they can do as much good in one profession as in another. Perhaps they can, providing they enter with proper motives and with the conscious-ness that they are truly performing their duty. But how frequently men just enter upon a course the very oppo-site of what reason and their own consciences tell them to do. In consequence of the object of our creation we must choose such a course of life as will enable us to do most good in the world. We must not take our own selfish mo-tives into consideration, but the honor and glory of God and the welfare of humanity. c. s. B., 1900. WINTER CRYSTAL Sweet, in silent winter night, The little church stands out Against the landscape crisp and white, So pure aud so devout. The mellow light shines soft aud kind Upon the ice-bound stream, And o'er the traveler's weary mind Sheds peace and joy serene. "TiJSS.' MML 182 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. BLOSSOMS. The violet 'long the traveler's way, Its sweetness gives to cheer his weary heart; The rarest rose on royal breast Though worn by queens plays not a nobler part. No wild rose e'er has bloomed in vain, Though but a beggar stoop to offer praise, Who reads its message pure and sweet, And bows before the thoughts of better days. But sweeter far than lowly flower, The life, a true and loving heart unfolds; Its sweetest fragrance, purity, Inspires the soul, and noble action moulds. j. N. K H., 99- SIFTED FROM OUR EXCHANGES. Is the literary or debating society less worthy than in the days of our fathers, or do we, in the great wisdom of our age, have less need of the training they offer ? There is cause for concern and the "problem" should receive earnest consideration by every college man. Rival inter-ests are said to be the chief cause of decline. Athletics, fraternities, clubs, etc., are generally cited as being the means of diverting interest from the literary society. But why does the student allow himself to be diverted ? Temp-tation is almost as old as the race. None of these things are comparable in value to the good old literary society, and it is the mark of honor to stand by that which is best. Students in earlier times were no doubt tempted to give their time to other interests as much as we, but they made their literary society of first importance. The modern col-lege debater or essayist would feel justly ashamed were he to be transported for an evening back to the old literary society of Longfellow and Hawthorne. If the proper lit-erary zeal existed to-day, rival interests would not inter-fere. The problem must be solved in the individual. His honor as a student should direct him to active participa-tion in literary work.—Ursinus College Bulletin. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY 133 I write, not in criticism of any deficiency in library facilities in any college, but in earnest desire to further your good purpose, and to increase interest among your fellow students in the use of libraries. First, books must be AVAILABLE. The college library must cease to depend upon the occasional donation of out-worn private libraries, or the whim of some special friend for special literary or other fads. The income for new books should be as steady and as reliable as for the endow-ment of any chair. This income should be wisely appor-tioned to the needs of all departments of instruction main-tained by the institution, without partiality or undue dis-crimination. It goes without saying that it should be ad-equate to actual needs. Second, the existing treasures on the shelves, and the new ones to be secured must be ACCESSIBLE, (a) There should be a general library with the reading room in close proximity, and also (b) special departmental collection in the several buildings devoted to their respective uses. The general library should be open for the consultation and drawing of books from 8 A. M. to 10 p. M., in winter, and 7 A. M. to 10 p. M., in spring and summer. It should be open on all holidays and on Sunday afternoons. The departmental libraries should be in charge of a student librarian for each, and be open as occasion may warrant. Free access to the shelves should be given to all users of the books. The seeing, the handling, the examining of books by young people is a very helpful part of their edu-cation. To be accessible is also to be arranged systematically, to be classified, scientifically, to be catalogued, and, in a degree, to be indexed.—Prof. William E. Martin, Librarian Bucknell University, in The Lafayette. T t t In my opinion the Ideal College Life embraces the fol-lowing elements : 1. The student should keep in constant view the ob- 134 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. ject for which he is sent to college and apply himself closely to his studies so as to maintain a good, honorable standing in his class for scholarship. 2. He should be careful to take the proper exercise to develop along with his intellectual attainments a sound, healthy body, and not weaken or enervate it. 3. He should cheerfully comply with all the rules and regulations of the college, so as to carry with him when he graduates the recollection that he was a loyal, faithful student, and did all in his power to maintain the honor and good name of his alma mater. 4. He should in all his intercourse with the Faculty and his fellow-students be manly and gentlemanly, so as to have the respect and esteem of all. 5. He should, along with his physical, intellectual and social culture, so develop his moral and religious na-ture as to blend them all in such delightful harmony as to attain the life of a Christian, the highest and noblest type of manhood.—Geo. W. Williard, D. D., L. L. D.,in College Student. ttt Two things may justly be expected of college students more than any uther class of men ; one may be a more difficult accomplishment than the other, yet both may be acquired and go hand in hand with one another. The first is the ability to read ; the second, the ability to think. —The Wittenberger. t t t It is no small part of a College education to form habits of observation, acquisition and application. What a man is when he leaves College he will be for life. Among the most subtle temptations that will come to the student is that of wasting what is most common and yet most precious—time. Small pieces of time are like small coins, they disappear very readily without leaving any trace. The man who can conserve the minutes will not waste the hours, and yet how much can be accomplished THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY 135 in a few stray minutes if we but seize the opportunities and make them count. It is so easy to sit down in one's chair and chat for five or ten minutes, or drop in on a neighbor, wasting his as well as our own time. It is not the minutes themselves that are so valuable ; it is the habit of wasting them that proves destructive. Formed while in college, it clings through after life, and its victim becomes one of those people who are always behind.—Vox Wesleyuna. EDITORS' DESK. We believe that books and articles which are not worth a second reading are scarcely worth the first. With this conviction in mind we endeavor to publish some real literature, something which will awaken thought and arouse sentiment, something which will be helpful to our varied class of readers. We are conscious that it is almost impossible to publish matters of value and interest alike to undergraduate whose life is young, spirits buoyant whose mind is centered upon the literature and questions of the past, and to our alumni sobered by the trials of life and occupied with the questions of the living present. However hard the task, we have relied upon your love for Alma Mater's interests to blind you to our short comings and to assist us in getting into the current of popular ap-proval. We have received many appreciated comments in the columns of our exchanges, clippings have been frequently made from our articles. Kind words and substantial evi-dence come in private letters, for all of which we are thankful; but we are grieved at the number who have asked for discontinuance and the tardiness of many de-linquents. We are passing through a crisis period in the history of our institution and especially is this true in re-gard to our publications. Although not in thick darkness* we will be lost if we do not go hand in hand as students and alumni, keeping cool heads and stout hearts, laboring not for selfish ends but for the common good of Gettys- 13(5 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. burg. Have you done your duty ? Let us in this day of patriotic awakening, rise also to a full measure of the de-votion due to Gettysburg and her interests. We are sorry that for causes which need not here be explained, the Feb. number of THE MEKCURY could not be issued. We have tried to make this number worthy your careful reading. Read everything, and the best things twice, not forgetting the advertisements. * * * "The Morning Watch." This subject was ably hand-led and forcefully presented at the last State convention. Every one prestnt could not help but realize the wonder-ful blessings, which came to all who faithfully observe it. If there is a class of people to whom the morning watch is more especially adapted than any other, it is the student. By the morning watch is meant the setting apart of a certain period of the early morn, say a half hour, to get alone with God, to meet Hira in some secret place, where silence reigns and the cares of this world are barred out. Where nothing interrupts the study of His Word, deep meditation, and sweet communion. Surely this ideal way of beginning the day cannot help but appeal to every reader. Do you want to develop character ? Do you want to be uplifted to higher planes of living ? Do you want to become more and more like the Master ? In short, do you want power ? Then observe the morning watch. Yours shall be the reward. Not infrequently does it happen that a student or stu-dents at a college or university have original ideas and plans by which the best interests of the institution might be advanced. It may be that these plans, if carried out. would meet a need which the particular institution has for a long time felt. It is, however, often the case that such plans and "schemes" are never put into execution for the simple reason that there exists no student organization of a kind to which such matters could be suggested, and THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. i:)7 which would be competent to carry through, in a syste-matic way, any student undertaking arising in this manner. The originator of the ideas so far from taking steps to bring his plans to a successful issue, sometimes does not even mention them to his companions. In this way much valuable activity on the part of the stu-dents is often lost to an institution of learning. At Gettysburg the advantage of an organization of the kind indicated above, was recognized by an alumnus. He lost no time in making known to the students his views as to the good, he felt sure, would accrue to our college through such an organization. The student body heartily favored the movement; and the Society of Pen and Sword was organized. The scope of activity of this Society, prac-tically includes every field in which the college has inter-est. In athletics and the college publications the Society is particularly interested. The only conditions of election to membership in the Society are a manifestation on the part of the student of sincere and active interest in all matters which concern the good of the college, and unmistakable evidence of loy-alty t^> alma mater. It is hardly necessary to add that already, at the end of the first year of its existence, the Society has accom-plished a half dozen very important undertakings in be-half of Gettysburg. Let us all join in our hearty wishes for another successful year. * * * IT is most gratifying to every lover of Old Gettysburg to note the greatly increased spirit of activity which now prevails throughout our entire institution. This spirit is particularly manifest among the boys who are musically inclined, and, as a result, the College has musical organi-zations of which she may well be proud. Moreover the recent organization of a good second Glee Club makes the prospect for the future very bright. We heartily com-mend the zeal of the Clubs and predict for them great suc-cess in their coming trip. They deserve it. 138 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. THERE has been an unusual number of lectures and entertainments in Brua Chapel this year. In general they have been quite well patronized by the students and the citizens of the town. This is a commendable way of rais-ing money for worthy objects, but we fear that too many entertainments will have a bad effect on the regular Y. M. 0. A. course which is provided every year. Might it not be better to have less in number and then aim to secure only the best ? SHEER NONSENSE. "Genius is a diffikult thing to hide. I hav even seen it revealed in blowing the noze or handling a toothpick. "It iz a pleasant thing to kno that cunning men, sooner or later, git kaught in the traps they set for others. "There is now and then a man who can make a cir-kumstanse, but as a general thing, cirkumstanses make men."—Josh Billings. It seems the wittiest things e'er heard By him who hears them told, Are those which he himself relates No matter if they're old. Thus you see 'tis verified The sayiug old and true, I know not who it's author was "Laugh, the world laughs with you." -Ex. FOOT-BALL TERMS. First down—Chawlie's moustache. Half-back—$2.50 paid on a borrowed $5. -Ex. Breathes there a man with soul so dead, Who never to himself (?) has said, As he stubbed his toe against the bed: « i it in ? -Ex. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 139 Some student, in searching through classic (?) literature, has come across the following fragment: "Darkibus uightibus, No lightiorum, Strikibus postibus, Breechibus torum."—Ex. Do you think she loves you? I don't know. I'm all in the dark. Well, if she entertains you that way, I think it's pretty good proof. There are two reasons why some people don't mind their own business. One is that they haven't any niiud, the other, that they haven't any business. —Han ard Lampoon. David Ward, the lucky gold miner, who brought back the news of a rich find of gold on the American side of Alaska, and who says that the rush next spring will be far down the Yukon on the American side, spent three years prospecting in Alaska, and in that time only received seven letters from home. Since his return he has had more than that many thousands of letters from would-be argonauts in three mouths. He is now in Philadel-phia, Pa., and tries to answer every inquiry concerning the Far North, its perils, rigors of climate and wonderful riches. His practical experience makes his advice highly valuable, and anyone interested in Alaska should avail themselves of his knowledge by writing to him. War Pictures. in beautiful colors. " ", u. "MAINE" and Battle-sfups .1NDIANAf" (Latter cleared for action) each i2xiS. North Atlantic Squadron, All ships of the line (in ac-tion) 12x36. Drawn from life by Reuterdahl. Finest pictures ever published. Mew York Bombarded. Transporting Troops to the Front. Artillery in Action. Storming Morro Castle. All the above beautiful colored pictures will appear in TRUTH. $1.00 will bring TRUTH for six mouths, in-cluding all the above and the follow-ing pictures on heavy plate paper for framing, will be given free as a premium. 1. Battle-ship "Maine," - 12x18. 2. " " "Indiana," 12x18. 3. Storming Morro Castle. Address, TRUTH, No. 40 Litho. Bldg. NEW YORK. WE RECOMMEND THESE BUSINESS MEN. TlQCJPriPr'Q lrt/HntPn Desiring position iu public or private I CO.L/IICI O VI CM I IX>U schools, Colleges or Universities, iu any slate in the Union, to apply through us. We charge no Commission on Salary for Se;uring Positions, Our facilities are the best. 5,000 vacancies last year. Life Membership and duplicate registration for one fee. 500 teachers wanted immediately to fill emergency vacancies on short notice. Graduate students iu great demand. H. H. HOPKINS SCO, Han:o?.'c, Maryland. You will find a full line of Pure Drugs & Fine Stationery PEOPLES' DRUG STORE. Prescriptions a Specialty. J. A. Sawney is ready to furnish clubs and board-ing houses with Bread, Rolls, &c, at short notice and reasonable rates. Washington and Middle Sta., Gettysburg David Troxel, DEALER IN FINE GROCERIES AND NOTIONS. . lias*. D. It., Manager. Pittsburg, Pa., Toronto, Can., New Or-leans, La., New York, N. Y., Wash-ington, D. C, San Francisco, Cat., Chicago, III., St Louis, Mo., Denver, Col, There are thousands of positions to be filled. We had over 8,000 vacancies last season. Unsurpassed facilities for plac-ing teachers in any part of the U.S. or Canada. One fee registers in 9 office. More vacancies than teachers Address all Applications to Pittsburg, Pa. MUMPER & BENDER, Fnrniture, Cabinet Making. Picture Frames. Baltimore St., - GETTYSBURG, PA. Go T/y iifr- ^HOTEL GETTYSBURG^? BARBER SHOP. Centre Square. B. M. SEFTON. SIMON J. CODORI, —DEALER IN— BEEF, PORK. LAMB, VEAL, SAUSAGE, York Street, Gettysburg, |3ilf*'Special rates to clubs. ^,Go To^ ^TIPTON & BARBEHEO^ BARBERS, In the Eagle Hotel, Gor. Main and Washington 8ta, Subscribe for > The MeflcuflJ. PATRONIZE OUR ADVERTISERS. ACCUlVIUliATEDWEflliTH. Laying up of riches isn't the only thing in life, for frequently a sour disposition is Ihe result. You want to take comfort in life as you Lr" along, one of the best ways to lane comfort is to buy well-fitting clothing. My Pall Slyles are now here and the selection is large and varied Suits made to your order from 812 up. Pressing and Repairing done at short notice. J. I). I.IPPT, Merchant Tailor. 45 Chambersburg St., Gettysburg. G. E. SPANGLER, (Successr to J. VV. Eicholtz & Co.) DEALER IN PIANOS, ORGANS, MUSIC, MUSICAL INSTRUMENTS, STRINGS, Etc. YORK S TREET, ist Square, Gettysburg. 1108 « HESTXI T STttliET, PHILADELPHIA. Wright's Engraving House, HAS hecome the recognized leader in unique styles of COLLEQ E and FRA-TERNITY ENGRAVINGS and STATION-ERY, College and Class-Day Invitations, engraved and printed from steel plates ; Programmes, Menus, Wedding and Re-ception Invitations, Announcements, etc. etc., Examine prices and styles before ordering elsewhere. 50 Visiting Cards from New Engraved Plates $1.00. ERNESTA. WRIGHT, uo8 ChestnutSt., Philadelphia. JOHN L. SHEADS, NEW CIGAR STORE Next door to W. M. Depot, Gettysburg, Pa. P. F. HENNIG7 —DEALER IN— Bread, Rolls, Pretzels Crackers, YORK STREET, GETTYSBURG. t3F"Reasonable Rates to Clubs. L. D. MILLER, /p Main St., Gettysburg. Grocer, Confectioner and Fruiterer. IGE CREAM and OYSTERS in SEASON. GETTYSBURG, PA., Main St. Free 'Bus to and from all trains. Rates $1.50 ta $2.00 per day. Thirty seconds'walk from either depot. DINNER WITH DRIVE OVER FIELD WITH 4 OR MORE $1.35. JOHN E. HUGHES, Prop'r Go TA C. A. BLOCHER'S Jewelry Store .FOR. Souvenir Spoons, Sword Pins, &c. All Kinds of Jewelry. Repairing a Specialty. Post Office Corner, Centre Square. PHOTOGRAPHER, NO. 3 MAIN STREET, GETTYSBURG, PA. Our new Enameled Aristo Por-traits are equal to Photos made anywhere, and atany price. FAVOR THOSE WHO FAVOR US. BASE BALL SUPPLIES, Spaldings League Ball, ^ Mits, Masks, etc., and Managers should send for samples and special rates. Every requisite for Tennis, Golf, Cricket, Track and Field Gymnasium Equipments and Outfits, c 'omplete Catalogue Spring Summer Sports Free. "THE NAME THE GUARANTEE" A. G. SPkLDING, & BROS., New York, Philadelphia, Chicago. S. G. Spangler, & Co. Fine Groceries,, Telephone 39, 102 E. Middle St. s. J. cooor^i, jf., DRUGGIST. DEALER IN D rugs, Medicines, oilet Ar-ticles, Stationery, Blank Books, Amateur Pho-tographic Supplies, Etc., Etc. BALTIMORE STREET. R. H. CULP, J7 cllJt£I, A .* ''■-^.' Second Square, - York Street. College Emblems, EJVIILi ZOTHE, Engraver, Designer and Mauufact'g Jeweler. 19 SOUTH NINTH STREET; PHILADELPHIA, PA. SPECIALTIES : Masonic Marks. Society Badges, College Buttons, Pins, Scarf Pius, Stick Pins and Athletic All goods ordered through C.H.Tilp. BOKRDINC-By Day, Week or Month. Rates reasonable. House equipped with all modern improvements. GROCERY STORE in same building. Full line of goods kept and sold at small profits. House and Store located on Cor. of College Campus, opposite Brua Chapel. J3F"Public Patronage Solicited SIIIIIIII>1 II. TauuJiiiibaimli. Prop. MENEELY BELL~G0. Troy, N. Y. Manufacturers of SUPERIOR BELLS. The 2000 pound bell now ringing in the tower of Pennsylvania College was manufactured at this foundry. PATRONIZE OUR ADVERTISERS. AM0£ EGBERT —DEALER IN— Hats, Shirts, Shoes, Ties, Umbrellas, Gloves, Satchels, Hose, Pocket Books. Trunks, Telescopes, Rubbers, Etc., Etc., AMOS ECKERT. Ff.Q Jol}nJ. Thomson's Sons IMPORTERS AND JOBBERS OF + DRUGS, + NOB. 16 and IS \V. German sti t. BALTIMORE, Ml). Offer to the trade their large and well-selected stock of DRUGS, MEDICINES, CHEMICALS and PERFUMERY. Make a specialty to have on hand everything required by Pharmacists. A complete stock can at any time be selected or wants supplied. Job printer1 j WEAVER BUILDTJVG, Centre Square, ALONZO L. THOMPSEN, Manufacturing- Chemist. Race, Winder, Sharp & beadenhall Sts, P. (). Box 657. BALTIMORE, MD. I beg to call attention to the trade that I have recently added to my Plant a com-plete set of Drug Milling Machinery of the most improved pattern. J. I. MUMPER, PHOTOGRAPHER, 29 BALTIMORE ST., GETTYSBURG, PA. Special Attention C()LLE(JE WORK. A FINE COLLECTION OF BATTLEFIFLD VIEWS. Always on hand. Mail Orders receive Prompt Attention. CALL ON F. MARK BREAM The Carlisle Street Grocer, Who always has on hand a full line of fine Groceries. ^j:xj>imM*iMms£?:mm WE RECOMMEND THESE BUSINESS MEX. HOTEL GETTYSBURG SHSPQvB .'n Centre Squarv. where McClellan Bouse formerly stood. &ETT1 slil'K'l. PA. RATES 82 PER DAY. H is ihe acknowledged Lead-ing Hotel of Gettyslrg Heat-ed fnrbugttont with steam; hoi or cold Baths; conmrodions Sample Rooms: Dlnillif-rooni E^iij capacity 20Q; lias a Cusine of ar excellence Headquarters for League American VV1 1- :ii;iii. ileadquarters commer- V cial travelers., Headquarters ^ military or civic societies, Free iins to and from all ~ "^ tl'ains II. & I>. H. 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La clave geopolítica número uno se llama recursos naturales.Eje central es la existencia de yacimientos petrolíferos y la posibilidad tecnológica, inexistente en los 80, de explotarlos de manera rentable. Este eje central tiene en su vértice otro elemento ausente en 1982, un Brasil poseedor de uno de los mantos petrolíferos más grandes mundo y que lo pone en una posición muy expectante en el mercado mundial de los hidrocarburos, así como también, aunque en menor medida por ahora, la positiva impresión que han dejado las prospecciones costa afuera de Uruguay, que están ejecutando empresas británicas. Un eje secundario, pero no menor, en lo relacionado con la relevancia de los recursos naturales, es la riqueza ictiológica de la zona adyacente la cual, poco a poco, se ha ido situando en un lugar preponderante en la vida económica de los habitantes de las islas e interesando a empresas de distintos países a participar en tan floreciente negocio (1).En efecto, el revival del interés argentino por las islas se produce en 2010 de forma coetánea a las primeras confirmaciones de existencias de petróleo susceptibles de ser explotadas en gran escala, y que empezaron a cambiar las apreciaciones sobre el valor comercial de las islas. El proceso se inicia en 1993 con el interés de Shell y varias otras petroleras tras conocerse los primeros estudios geológicos del British Geological Survey, que advertían sobre las posibilidades de que 200.000 km2 alrededor de las islas contuviesen petróleo. En 1996 surgen nuevas evidencias y el gobierno británico procede a licitar 19 áreas, otorgando licencias de exploración off shore a Shell, Amerada Hess, Rockhopper Exploration, Lasmo, Falklands Oil & Gas, International Petroleum Corporation y Desire Petroleum, entre otras. Varias de ellas se crearon ex profeso para estas exploraciones, pero no todas tuvieron éxito y fueron retirándose producto de los elevados costos.Sin embargo, desde 2008, gracias a nuevos estudios se visualizó la posibilidad teórica, de obtener 60 billones de barriles off shore, lo que significaba existencias potenciales superiores a las reservas que el Reino Unido tiene en el Mar del Norte. Ahí se desató un renovado interés que alcanza un peak en febrero de 2010 cuando Londres autoriza a Desire, Falkland Oil y Rockhopper que realicen más prospecciones centrándose en la costa norte de las islas, el sector más promisorio. Tan solo un año más tarde, en septiembre de 2011, Rockhopper Exploration, una de las que más había invertido en las etapas previas, anunció que en las cuatro áreas adjudicadas, al norte de las islas, habría existencias superiores a los 400 mil millones de barriles, o sea 15% de las disponibilidades británicas en el Mar del Norte. Confirmó los rumores que la explotación comenzará a más tardar en 2016, con cerca de 12 mil millones de barriles por día, y que alcanzará una cota de 120 mil barriles por día en 2018 (2).Los pronósticos más favorables señalan que las islas podrían ubicarse entre los grandes exportadores del oro negro del mundo y que las reservas superarían en un 300% a las de la Argentina. Los kelpers pasarían a ser una de las poblaciones más ricas del planeta.En la actualidad los 3.145 isleños disfrutan ya de US$ 35 mil de ingreso per capita que los ubica en cuarto lugar en el mundo (únicamente por debajo de Qatar, Liechtenstein y Luxemburgo), pese a que se explican solo por dos actividades comerciales que, si bien no son las principales (la ganadería ovina sigue siendo la más extendida con unas 500.000 cabezas de ganado ovino), son las que están generando mayores réditos: las licencias de pesca y el turismo, a través del recale de cruceros. Según datos del gobierno de las islas compilados en el "Economic Briefing & Forecast for the Falklands", entre 2009 y 2010, visitaron las islas 62.500 personas. Puesto de otro modo, desde el 2009 a la fecha ha habido un incremento del 200% de turistas (3).En tanto, el negocio de la pesca es inmensamente beneficioso para los isleños. Únicamente por concepto de licencias entregadas a terceros países por 30 y hasta 40 años, el fisco en Port Stanley recauda sobre US$ 70 millones. Los principales interesados en adquirir, aumentar e ir renovando estas licencias son los españoles, los taiwaneses y surcoreanos. Solamente de España hay 116 navíos con derechos. Si a esto se le suman beneficios adicionales a partir de las capturas (otros impuestos, participación en la comercialización, servicios y otros) la recaudación se eleva a cerca de los US$ 1.600 millones (un octavo de los cuales se destina a financiar el ítem Defensa). La tendencia es tan positiva que las previsiones para el presente indican que el conjunto de beneficios a partir de la pesca rozará los US$ 2 mil millones. En el mercado internacional, por ejemplo, cada vez son más apreciados el illex y el coligo, dos variedades de calamar por el que en Europa se llega a pagar hasta seis euros por kilo, sus capturas, solo hasta 1992, eran 10 veces mayores a las realizadas en la Zona Económica Exclusiva de Argentina (4). A modo comparativo, en 1985, es decir poco después de la guerra, esta cantidad apenas se empinaba por sobre los US$ 8 millones. Nuevamente, a modo de comparación, la pesca en Argentina alcanza 900 mil toneladas, en las islas poco más de 200 mil toneladas, con una tendencia al alza notoriamente superior. En definitiva, el potencial ictiológico en los 320 kms en torno a las islas es enorme, tanto en cantidad como en variedad de recursos.Sin embargo, es la explotación del petróleo la que está aumentando la importancia geopolítica de las islas, estimándose que hacia el 2016 ese será por lejos el foco central de la disputa. La tendencia al escalamiento se observa al ver la evolución cualitativa de esta variable, que se detalla en Anexo, que alcanza una primera cota máxima a inicios de 2010 cuando la empresa Argos Resources hizo importantes anuncios y una segunda a principios de 2011, cuando se instalan dos plataformas petroleras, la Ocean Guardian y Leiv Eriksson, ambas de la Falkland Oil que, por la proximidad de sus operaciones con la costa argentina, causan el mayor escozor en la Casa Rosada y que desemboca en la dura reacción de canciller Héctor Timmerman. El alto funcionario de la administración cristinista indica que su país ha intentado disuadir "de forma pacífica" la ejecución de estas actividades en plataformas, agregando la posibilidad de "otra forma de interferencia", con lo que coquetea por primera vez con el eventual uso del instrumento armado. Timmerman también insinuó que bancos y sociedades de accionistas estarían actuando en complicidad, cuando no directamente "de mala fe", y que sufrirían consecuencias (5).Los blancos hacia donde apuntan los dardos argentinos son los siguientes: a) Desire Petroleum plc. Empresa de gas y petróleo fundada en 1996 por antiguos ejecutivos de la Royal Dutch. En ese año comenzó sus tareas de prospección al participar como subcontratista de Rockhopper y FOGL. En tal condición fue la primera en comprobar existencias de gas y petróleo. Posteriormente se adjudicó derechos en la cuenca del norte de las islas, tanto en joint venture con la australiana Arcadia Energy como propios. Y más tarde se adjudicó otras en el sur, donde opera junto a Rockhopper. Se encuentra enlistada en la London Stock Exchanges. Ahí sus acciones se triplicaron entre septiembre de 2011 y marzo de 2012, justo en el período en que confirmó el monto de las existencias, viabilidad comercial y técnica para su extracción. En prácticamente todos sus proyectos se encuentra asociado con el banco Barclays, el que además oficia como colocador de deuda argentina en el exterior. Ha hecho estimaciones del orden de 3,5 mil millones de barriles como existencias totales en su sector (6).b) Falkland Oil & Gas Limited (7): empresa de gas y petróleo fundada en 2004. Opera derechos adjudicados en la zona sur y este de las islas. Su plataforma principal es la Leiv Eriksson. Su partner principal es la australiana BHP Billiton, empresa que posee, además, yacimientos de variados minerales en el norte argentino y a lo largo de la frontera con Chile. En un estudio efectuado en 2010, FOGL estimó las reservas en sus áreas licitadas en 8 billones de barriles y en 60 billones la totalidad de reservas off shore en las islas. Información de prensa indica que la Falkland Oil Gas es la empresa que habría presentado los primeros síntomas de sensibilidad ante las advertencias de la administración cristinista y habría puesto a la venta algunos de sus derechos (8).c) Rockhopper Exploration (9): empresa de gas y petróleo fundada en 2004. Se adjudicó cuatro derechos de exploración y explotación principalmente en la parte más septentrional de las islas (PLO 32, PL033, PLO23, PLO24) aunque también participa como socio minoritario de Desire en dos concesiones en la zona sur (PL03 y PL04). Ambas comparten en la zona norte una misma plataforma de perforación, la Ocean Guardian llevada a las islas en febrero de 2010. Fue la primera en comprobar, en mayo de 2010, la existencia de grandes reservas de hidrocarburos en la parte norte de las islas, denominada Sea Lion. Su accionista principal es HSBC, el cual además elabora estudios geológicos en el Atlántico sur. Está enlistada en London Stock Exchanges.d) Borders & Southern Petroleum: empresa de gas y petróleo fundada en 2004. Se adjudicó cinco derechos de exploración y explotación en la parte meridional de las islas. Pese a ser la más reciente en estas tareas, ha comprobado la existencia de al menos 760 millones de barriles. Ha instalado varias plataformas, algunas con mayor proximidad con la costa argentina que las de las otras empresas. Su plataforma Darwin, a 140 kms de la costa de las Falkland, debía presentar sus evaluaciones finales a inicios de marzo de 2012, pero anunció "problemas técnicos" y la suspensión de tales entregas públicas hacia inicios de mayo del mismo año. Estimaciones de prensa señalan que las advertencias pudieron haber influido en la postergación. Igualmente es probable que busque matizar los últimos descubrimientos de su plataforma Stebbing, que inicialmente cifra su manto en 1.300 millones de barriles. Entre sus principales accionistas está la Minera Alumbrera poseedora de varios yacimientos de oro y plata en Argentina (10). e) Argos Resources Limited (11): es una empresa de gas y petróleo fundada en 1995, como subsidiaria de Argos Exploration, y conocida posteriormente como Argos Evergreen. A inicios de los 90 comenzó a participar en las primeras prospecciones en la cuenca del norte de las islas, asociada a Amerada Hess y a Lasmos. Se adjudicó en 1997 la licencia de producción PLO01 en esa zona de las islas. En 2010 fue severamente reprendida por el gobierno argentino por sus actividades de prospección (12).Un elemento adicional que debe ser tomado en cuenta en esta confluencia de variables geopolíticas es Brasil, cuyos intereses han ido aumentando sustancialmente en los últimos años. Sin ser un actor directamente involucrado en esta disputa británico- argentina, sí parece más sensible a los reclamos argentinos a juzgar por sus declaraciones. En este punto se observa una diferencia importante con lo ocurrido durante la "Guerra de los 73 Días", en que la administración de Joao B. Figueiredo, si bien apoyó retóricamente a los argentinos, optó por la distancia e incluso prestó apoyo a la Fuerza Aérea británica en dos casos de accidentes menores ocurridos en el transcurso de las acciones bélicas. Sin embargo, también ha sido revelado que Figueiredo advirtió a Washington que su posición cambiaría drásticamente si los británicos atacaban territorio continental argentino. En ese caso, Brasil se reservaba el derecho a intervenir (13).Es probable que ahora la estatal brasileña Petrobras no desee tener competencia de otras empresas en zonas relativamente cercanas, dado que avizora convertirse en una de las grandes petroleras a escala mundial en los próximos años. Tal suposición es coherente con las aspiraciones de presencia hegemónica de Brasil en el Atlántico sur. A tono con lo precedente deben tenerse presente dos asuntos nada triviales: uno, que Brasil siempre se ha mostrado receloso ante cualquier presencia no-regional en el Atlántico sur, y dos, relacionado con lo anterior, que flota en el aire cierto orgullo brasileño por sus logros en explotación off shore. Además, la variable brasileña irá adquiriendo o perdiendo peso a medida que se materialicen las prospecciones off shore en Uruguay, asignadas a empresas británicas lo que complejiza sustancialmente la situación descrita.En tanto, el tráfico marítimo y aéreo en torno a las islas pasará a ser una vía más utilizada que ahora cuando entren de lleno al mercado mundial de hidrocarburos. Asimismo, a medida que el tamaño de los buques no permita el uso del canal de Panamá, el tránsito por el Atlántico Sur debería aumentar. Es probable que surja un triángulo estratégico en el Cono Sur (Falkland-Malvinas, Tierra del Fuego y costas antárticas).Finalmente debe señalarse que tanto estudios argentinos como británicos coinciden en que el valor "geoeconómico" (como lo señala el propio Informe Rattenbach) es necesariamente mayor a lo que se ha supuesto hoy debido a que las islas son continuación de plataformas sudamericanas y/o africanas y debería contener silicio ferroso, diamantes, cobalto, níquel, cromo, manganeso. Por el lado argentino existen depósitos submarinos (frente a la provincia de Santa Cruz) de nódulos polimetálicos compuestos de magnesio y manganeso.La clave geopolítica número dos se denomina proyección antártica.El continente helado representa otro de los grandes intereses en juego, en el escalamiento del conflicto es su necesaria vinculación con la Antártica. Gran Bretaña (14) y Argentina (15) tienen pretensiones sobre el territorio antártico que se sobreponen casi totalmente entre sí y parcialmente con la de Chile (16).En la actualidad este traslape no representa una fuente de conflictividad. Sin embargo, los precedentes de tipo geopolítico que se establezcan en el Ártico, junto a la actitud general de los países respecto a la Antártica (no debe perderse de vista que el Tratado Antártico ha sido suscrito solo por 48 países, o sea faltan dos tercios aproximadamente) más las existencias de hidrocarburos que se vayan cuantificando y, last but not least, los efectos del cambio climático, no auguran una perspectiva amistosa ni menos un clima benigno para ir resolviendo los diferendos que plantean las pretensiones. Claramente, el ir situando piezas con antelación forma parte de las configuraciones geopolíticas que se avecinan. En este sentido, el Atlántico sur y la Antártica tendrán una gravitación con claras líneas de interdependencia de una con la otra.Rosendo Fraga explica que esta línea analítica, que visualiza la convergencia entre el actual conflicto en el Atlántico sur y las proyecciones antárticas futuras, está acorde a la estrategia desarrollada por la administración de Cristina Fernández, que apuntan a sudamericanizar el conflicto apoyándose decisivamente en Mercosur y Unasur (17), así como de forma más atenuada en los países ALBA. A su juicio, la política exterior argentina ha conseguido alinear a los países del Mercosur (miembros plenos y asociados) en una condena pública al Reino Unido y establecer con ellos un boicot a los buques que porten bandera de las Falklands. El supuesto basal de esta estrategia es que los países sudamericanos, y por extensión latinoamericanos, se alinearán con fuerza tras los reclamos de Buenos Aires tanto por una cuestión epidérmica anti- colonialista (de cuyas reminiscencias Londres difícilmente puede sustraerse) como por el sentido común de región. Subyace en el texto de Fraga que en esta clave radica una postura chilena necesariamente cautelosa. En tal sentido, es probable que Fraga no haya querido ahondar en su reflexión para no tener que admitir que, por las mismas razones de sobreposición de pretensiones mencionadas anteriormente, se trata más bien de una cautela con tendencia a crecer en el tiempo, por lo que la estrategia cristinista tendrá en Chile una excepción insoslayable. Hay un cierto sustrato histórico que emana de las reflexiones de Cañas Montalva, "la Antártica es el natural complemento de nuestras tierras fueguinas" (18).Finalmente, la clave geopolítica número tres es el control efectivo del archipiélago.Las capacidades militares británicas (en las islas) son holgadamente superiores a las argentinas, especialmente en el aspecto tecnológico. Se trata de potencialidades civiles y militares que se esparcen por todo el archipiélago de manera efectiva y regular. Nadie podría cuestionar que el ejercicio de soberanía sobre las islas es cumplido a cabalidad por los británicos.La fuerza disuasiva tiene un punto central, Mount Pleasant, una base moderna que alberga cuatro Eurofighter Typhoon, diez aeronaves-tanque más un avión Hércules de transporte. La base dispone en estos críticos momentos de 1.200 efectivos y se ha emplazado en diversos puntos del archipiélago un número indeterminado de baterías antiaéreas del tipo Rapier. La Armada Real ha dispuesto el despliegue a esa zona del moderno destructor Dauntless que alterna misiones con la fragata Montrose; además de un patrullero, un submarino y una nave de apoyo. En otro aspecto, Mount Pleasant dispone de equipamiento sofisticado que le permite monitorear, de manera satelital, una amplia extensión mucho más allá del territorio de archipiélago, compuesto por 340 islas, islotes y cayos.Quizás el único tema que plantea una vulnerabilidad es la escasa densidad poblacional. Hay preocupación por la falta de personas para poblar los 11.400 kilómetros cuadrados. Continuamente se observan anuncios de prensa para llenar vacantes en la prestación de servicios, por lo general ocupadas por sudamericanos o los santa-helénicos, y también en las áreas de salud y educación. Sin embargo, es difícil pensar que esta vulnerabilidad esté pasando inadvertida a los círculos de decisión política y militar de Londres.ConclusionesDe los antecedentes expuestos deriva que este conflicto seguirá escalando. El control de los recursos de que disponen las islas, especialmente el petróleo, constituye la principal variable de carácter geopolítico.La imposibilidad argentina de recurrir al instrumento militar (por la acción sinérgica de: falta de inversiones en el sector Defensa, una política exterior pacifista, ausencia de apoyo ciudadano a una nueva aventura militar y ausencia total del factor Goa,1961) implica que la escalada será básicamente político-diplomática.Las características épicas que Argentina busca darle a su demanda traerá consigo un previsible deterioro de la relación del Reino Unido con América Latina, y una tensión adicional en la relación de Estados Unidos con el resto del hemisferio. Más allá de las fragmentaciones que vive la región sudamericana, se aprecia una tendencia a la solidaridad con la postura argentina.Para Chile la agudización de este conflicto no puede ser indiferente por varias razones. Primero, por el impacto que la controversia genere al interior de UNASUR y, segundo, ya que podría repercutir en su condición de país antártico. No solo se abrirá un diferendo por la superposición de las pretensiones de los tres países, sino que podría impactar en el régimen jurídico mismo que rige para el continente helado. Un asunto adicional es la presencia de una comunidad de chilenos residentes en las islas. En cuanto al petróleo mismo, la eventual accesibilidad a las exportaciones de crudo extraído de las islas no podría ser indiferente para un país (Chile) con estrechez energética evidente. Tampoco el transporte del mismo hacia terceros mercados, que podría provocar un cambio cualitativo estratégico en el triángulo formado por las costas antárticas, las islas y el extremo sur de Chile. Referencias: (1) Como advertencia conceptual se señala que para referirse al problema en su conjunto se ha optado por las nociones neutras de "Atlántico sur" o "disputa británico-argentina", mientras que para referirse a alguna cuestión específica desde la perspectiva argentina se utiliza "Malvinas" y en el caso desde la óptica británica, "Falkland". Igualmente, dentro de lo posible se privilegia la expresión "isleños" por sobre la de "kelpers". (2) Información corporativa en http://www.rockhoppercorporation.co.uk(3) Información más detallada en sitio del gobierno isleño http://www.falkland.gov.fk (4) Más información sobre este punto en Wurfgaft, Romy, "La pesca, clave en el alto PIB per cápita de los habitantes de las Malvinas", El Mundo, s.p. (5) ARGENTINA amenaza a las empresas que buscan petróleo en las Malvinas, El Mundo, s.p. (6) El nombre de esta empresa recuerda la denominación del barco que descubrió las islas en 1592. Información corporativa en http://www.desireplc.co.uk (7) Información corporativa en http://www.fogl.com (8) PETROLERA británica vende licencia para buscar petróleo en las Malvinas La Nación, s.p. (9) Información corporativa, viz nota 13 (10) Información corporativa en http://www.bordersandsouthern.co.uk (11) Información corporativa en http://www.argosresources.com (12) Argos warned by Argentina to abstain from drilling in the Falklands or. Mercopress, s.p. (13) En el sitio http://www.zonamilitar.com.ar se encuentran materiales estadounidenses recientemente desclasificados que se refieren a este punto. (14) Meridianos 20° O y 60° O, el paralelo 80° S y el Polo Sur, comprendiendo 1.709.400 km2. (15) Meridianos 25° O y 74° O, el paralelo 60° S y el Polo Sur, comprendiendo 1.461.597 km2. (16) 27Meridianos 53° O y 90° O, el paralelo 60° S y el Polo Sur, comprendiendo 1.250.257.6 km2. (17) FRAGA, Rosendo, "Hay un rearme argentino?", Nueva Mayoría, s.p. Agrega que el gran tema de largo plazo en el Atlántico sur son los recursos naturales de la Antártida, aunque ésta esté internacionalizada y recuerda que este Tratado está firmado solo por 48 naciones y no lo han firmado más de dos tercios, incluidas potencias importantes.(18) Op. Cit. , p.193.Anexo Hitos relevantes1975. Gobierno británico envía sucesivas misiones de geólogos a las islas con la finalidad de hacer prospecciones. Una de las misiones es encabezada por el parlamentario e ingeniero de la Shell, Colin Phipps quien, años más tarde, pasó a ser asesor en materias de hidrocarburos de la premier Margaret Thatcher. Una de las misiones que insinuó la posibilidad real de existencias de yacimientos petrolíferos en las islas es la que se denominó Shackleton. El 4 de febrero de ese año se produce un incidente, cuando un navío argentino lanza un cañonazo de advertencia a otro navío británico, que formaba parte de estas misiones científicas. 1982. Tras el fin de la guerra, la empresa argentina YPF pierde los derechos monopólicos de suministro de energía y la empresa aérea LADE pierde también los derechos que poseía para volar el tramo Port Stanley- Comodoro Rivadavia (que ejercía también de forma monopólica desde 1971). 1986. Gobierno británico define unilateralmente una zona de exclusión marítima de 200 millas alrededor de las islas. 1990. Se reanudan las relaciones diplomáticas entre Reino Unido y Argentina. Como parte de un criterio compartido, al menos tácitamente, aproximadamente 900 efectivos británicos son emplazados de manera estable en las islas, teniendo como base principal la recién construida Mount Pleasant, cerca de Port Stanley. Los dos países firman una serie de acuerdos comerciales entre los que destaca uno sobre explotación marina. 1995. Londres y Buenos Aires firman un acuerdo para fijar términos de referencia en materia de exploración y explotación petrolera en los sectores adyacentes a las islas. 1996. Londres autoriza unilateralmente a ciudadanos y empresas británicas a operar en lo que denomina Zona Económica Exclusiva con un radio de 320 kilómetros. Entrega seis licencias de exploración off shore. 1998.Tras recriminaciones mutuas, la comisión ad hoc para monitorear acuerdo sobre materias petrolíferas de ja de funcionar. Londres acusa a Buenos Aires de falta de interés. Casa Rosada asegura que rompimiento fue unilateral pues los británicos desean seguir licitando pozos. 1999. Acuerdo entre las partes, que permite conexión aérea semanal operada por LAN Chile entre Punta Arenas y Port Stanley, con escala técnica en Río Gallegos. 2000. Gobierno de las islas solicita a expertos a la Oficina Hidrográfica de Londres y el Centro Oceanográfico de Southampton estudios que permitan fundamentar la existencia de una misma plataforma submarina entre las Falkland y las Georgias del Sur. 2007. El gobierno de Néstor Kirchner decide desahuciar definitivamente acuerdo sobre los términos de referencia en materia de exploración y explotación petrolera en los sectores adyacentes a las islas y anuncia acciones contra empresas interesadas en el negocio petrolero. 2009 (Febrero). Gobierno británico señala que no habrá diálogo con Buenos Aires debido a que los isleños no desean formar parte de Argentina. 2010 (18 enero). Argentina cierra sus puertos a naves procedentes de las islas. 2010 (12 febrero). Un barco que asistía logísticamente tareas de prospección petrolera es retenido en el puerto de La Campana mientras se reaprovisionaba. 2010 (13 febrero). Sectores de la oposición argentina solicitan a la Casa Rosada retirar la licencia del banco Barclays por participar en empresas petroleras activas en las islas (1). 2010 (22 febrero). La presidenta argentina, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner obtiene que la Declaración Final de la Cumbre de Cancún (México) de jefes de Estado de los otros 32 países latinoamericanos y caribeños (incluidos los integrantes de la Commonwealth) incluya una mención a favor de "los legítimos derechos argentinos" sobre las Malvinas. "El gobierno argentino agotará todas las disposiciones que tiendan a reafirmar nuestra soberanía sobre los archipiélagos del Sur", aclaró Fernández al hacer uso de la palabra ante los mandatarios reunidos en México. La mandataria también agradeció el apoyo para crear una mesa de negociación con Gran Bretaña. Argentina pide un diálogo directo con Londres. 2010 (23 febrero). La plataforma Ocean Guardian inicia sus trabajos (2). 2011 (Diciembre). Gobierno argentino condena trabajos de prospección petrolífera y anuncia que entra en vigor prohibición de recale en puertos argentinos de navíos procedentes de y con destinos a las islas. Pide a países de Mercosur y Unasur solidarizar con medidas semejantes, petición que es aceptada por Brasil, Chile, Uruguay y otros. 2012 (19 enero). El Premier David Cameron califica de "colonialista" la intención argentina de retomar el control sobre las islas. 2012 (4 febrero). Reunión cumbre de países ALBA en Caracas con el conflicto en el Atlántico Sur como tema principal. Acuerdan "analizar la posibilidad de sancionar a Gran Bretaña por rehusar el diálogo". Las expresiones más duras, con fuertes alusiones al anti-colonialismo, provienen del Presidente ecuatoriano Rafael Correa. 2012 (10 febrero). Canciller argentino eleva reclamo a ONU ante lo que califica de "militarización" del área en torno a las islas y señala que "es un riesgo para la seguridad internacional". Londres reacciona señalando que despliegue del destructor "Dauntless", de un submarino y del escuadrón de aviones "Typhoon" corresponden a maniobras "rutinarias", y que el viaje por seis semanas del príncipe Guillermo a la base de Mount Pleasant es parte de su entrenamiento en operaciones de búsqueda y rescate de la RAF. Contra-reacción argentina califica de "provocación" la conducta británica en estas materias. Medios de prensa británicos señalan que el submarino enviado no es uno del tipo "Vanguard" con ojivas nucleares, como señaló Timmerman ante la ONU, sino uno del tipo Trafalgar sin capacidad de transporte de armas nucleares. 2012 (22 febrero). Un grupo de 17 intelectuales liderado por Beatriz Sarlo solicita al gobierno de Cristina Fernández tener en consideración la opinión de los isleños a la hora de reclamar soberanía sobre las Malvinas (3). 2012 (2 marzo). Buenos Aires anuncia su intención de reemplazar el vuelo semanal de LAN Chile por tres, desde Buenos Aires y operados por Aerolíneas Argentinas. La materialización ha sido postergada sin explicaciones oficiales. 2012 (14 marzo). Canciller Timmerman anuncia acciones legales contra empresas que participen la búsqueda y explotación de napas petrolíferas en el Atlántico sur "por estar contraviniendo la Resolución 625 de la ONU". De forma críptica advierte que "es significativo también el rol que desempeñan las consultoras y analistas de riesgo, por ser las mismas que censuran a Argentina por el manejo de su economía y ocultan información. En sus informes, ellas omiten las resoluciones de referentes a las Malvinas e inducen a los accionistas a cometer un delito" (4). 2012 (19 marzo). Se inicia la explotación de una las plataformas petroleras instaladas en la zona norte de las islas. 2012 (30 marzo). Canciller uruguayo Luis Almagro reitera apoyo a reclamo argentino, pero alerta sobre la eventualidad de que la acción termine en un bloqueo similar al que está sometido Cuba. 2012 (2 abril). Acto oficial en conmemoración del desembarco argentino en las islas en Usuahia. 2012 (8 abril). Argentina, con apoyo de países ALBA, solicita incluir tema Malvinas en Declaración Final de la VI Cumbre Hemisférica de las Américas en Cartagena de Indias, Colombia. Tres días más tarde cancillería colombiana en su calidad de anfitriona anuncia que tema de Malvinas será tema de los debate, pero no se incluirá en Declaración Final por falta de unanimidad entre los participantes.Referencias de Anexo: (1) Los datos de las dos últimas notas al pie provienen de THEURER, Marcus y MOSES, Carl "Der Krieg, das Öl und die Insel" (La guerra, el petróleo y las islas), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, s.p. (2) Desire alquiló de forma compartida con Falkland Oil and Gas los servicios del Ocean Guardian, una plataforma petrolera con el pabellón de las islas Marshall, que llegó a Malvinas tras tres meses de viaje. Tras prestar servicios a Desire, ésta se desplazó al sur de las islas, área licitada a Falkland Oil and Gas. (3) ROMERO, Luis Alberto "¿Son realmente nuestras las Malvinas?", s.p. Agrega: "no habrá solución argentina a la cuestión de Malvinas hasta que sus habitantes quieran ser argentinos e ingresen voluntariamente como ciudadanos a su nuevo Estado. Es imposible no tenerlos en cuenta, como lo hace el gobierno argentino". (4) WURFGAFT, Romy "Argentina amenaza a las empresas que buscan petróleo en las Malvinas". El Mundo, s.p. Información adicional sobre este punto en MOSES, Carl y THEURER, Marcus "Erdöl auf die alten Wunden" (Petróleo sobre viejas heridas), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, s.p. FUENTE: BASADA EN PRENSA ARGENTINA, ESPAÑOLA, ALEMANA, URUGUAYA, BRITÁNICA Y ESTADOUNIDENSE. BibliografíaAguiar, Felix R. (editor) Operaciones terrestres en las islas Malvinas Biblioteca del Oficial, Bs.As., 1983.ARGENTINA amenaza a las empresas que buscan petr�leo en las Malvinas, El Mundo, [En l�nea], [consulta: 3.5.2012]. Disponible en: http://www.elmundo.es ARGENTINA no es amenaza militar, DEF [En l�nea] [consulta: 23.4.2012]. Disponible en: http://www.defonline.com.arARGOS warned by Argentina to abstain from drilling in the Falklands or. Mercopress, [En l�nea], [consulta: 3.4.2012]. Disponible en http://www.en.mercopress.comAuel, Heriberto Justo "La situaci�n estrat�gica del Atl�ntico sur en el a�o 2012", Revista Digital N° 791, [En l�nea], [consulta: 3.5.2012]. Disponible en: http://www.1884editorial.com.arBalza, Martin Malvinas, la gesta incompleta, Atl�ntida, Bs.As., 2003. Barre, Le�n "Zoolog�as cristinistas", El Mostrador, [En l�nea], [consulta 3.4.2012]. Disponible en http://www.elmostrador.cl .Bilbao Richter, Jos� "En b�squeda de principios estrat�gicos coherentes" Revista Digital N° 791, [En l�nea], [consulta: 3.5.2012]. Disponible en: http://www.1884editorial.com.arBriley, Harold "Yes, they have not bananas (in Falkland and in Buenos Aires)", Mercopress, [consulta: 3.4.2012]. Disponible en http://www.en.mercopress.comCa�as Montalva, Ram�n Geopol�tica oce�nica y austral, Academia de Guerra del Ej�rcito de Chile, Santiago de Chile, 2008.Castro Jorge "Malvinas: ¿Regionalizaci�n del conflicto?" (entrevista) Revista Digital N° 791, [En l�nea], [consulta: 3.5.2012]. Disponible en: http://www.1884editorial.com.arCoconi, Luciana "¿Islas Malvinas o Falkland Islands?. La cuesti�n de la soberan�a sobre las islas del Atl�ntico sur", Universidad de Barcelona, Barcelona, 2010.Cox, Robert "Put the Islanders first: key to the Malvinas/Falkland dispute", Mercopress , [En l�nea] [consulta: 3.4.2012]. Disponible en http://www.en.mercopress.comDe los Reyes, Marcelo Javier "Las islas Malvinas y el Atl�ntico sur", Revista Digital N° 791, [En l�nea], [consulta: 3.5.2012]. Disponible en: http://www.1884editorial.com.ar_____________ "Las islas Malvinas y el Atl�ntico sur: configuraciones estrat�gicas y econ�micas" de Marcelo Javier de los Reyes, Revista Digital N° 791, [En l�nea], [consulta: 3.5.2012]. Disponible en: http://www.1884editorial.com.arDozer, Rudolf, "The territorial status of the Falkland (Malvinas): past and present", Oceana Publications Inc, N.Y., 2000.Escud�, Carlos "Un experimento pacifista: las pol�ticas exteriores y de seguridad de Argentina en el siglo XXI", Documentos de Trabajos N° 426, Universidad del CEMA, Bs.As., 2010.Espinosa Moraga, Oscar La cuesti�n de las islas Malvinas, 1492-1982, Biblioteca del Oficial, Santiago de Chile, 1983.ESTADOS UNIDOS. Oficina de Asuntos P�blicos de la Secretar�a de Estado La Crisis del Atl�ntico sur, antecedentes, consecuencias y documentaci�n, Washington DC, 1982.Fleischmann, Luis "The Falkland/Malvinas Islands: another case of regional Chauvinism", Organizaci�n Latinoamericana para la Defensa de la Democracia, OLADD. [En l�nea], [consulta: 3.4.2012]. Disponible en http://www.ciempre.comFraga, Rosendo "La globalizaci�n de la estrategia argentina por Malvinas", [En l�nea], [consulta: ]. Disponible en: __________ "Malvinas: Pasado y futuro", Nueva Mayor�a [En l�nea], [consulta: 2.4.2012]. Disponible en: http://www.nuevamayoria.com__________ "¿Hay un rearme argentino?", Nueva Mayor�a [En l�nea]. [ consulta: 30.3.2012]. Disponible en:Freedmann, Lawrence y Gamba-Stonehouse, Victoria Se�ales de guerra, Vergara Editores, Bs.As., 1992.Jastreblansky, Maia "La propuesta secreta de los ingleses a Per�n por las Malvinas", La Naci�n [En l�nea] [consulta: 30.3.2012]. Disponible en http://www.lanacion.com.arKlare, Michael, "Resource wars. The new global landscape of global conflict", Owl Books, NY., 2012.Kon, Daniel Los Chicos de la guerra Galerna, Bs.As., 1982. MALVINAS es una causa sudamericana, DEF [En l�nea], [consulta: 5.4.2012]. Disponible en: http://www.defonline.com.arMoses, Carl y Marcus Theurer "Erd�l auf die alten Wunden" (Petr�leo sobre viejas heridas), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, [En l�nea], [consulta: 5.4.2012]. Disponible en: http://www.faz.de______ "Der Krieg, das �l und die Insel" (La guerra, el petr�leo y las islas), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, [En l�nea], [consulta: 5.4.2012]. Disponible en: http://www.faz.de Mu�oz Azpiri, Jos� Luis "La herida abierta: nuestras Malvinas" Revista Digital N° 791, [En l�nea], [consulta: 3.5.2012]. Disponible en: http://www.1884editorial.com.arPalermo, Vicente, "Sal en las heridas. Las Malvinas en la cultura argentina y contempor�nea", Sudamericana, Bs.As., 2007.PETROLERA brit�nica vende licencia para buscar petr�leo en las Malvinas, La Naci�n, [En l�nea], [consulta: 15.3.2012]. Disponible en: http://www.lanacion.com.arRECLAMO brit�nico, DEF [En l�nea], [consulta: 23.4.2012]. Disponible en http://www.defonline.com.arRomero, Luis Alberto "Las Malvinas no visi�n alternativa" La Naci�n, [En l�nea], [consulta: 15.3.2012]. Disponible en: http://www.lanacion.com.arWest, Nigel "La guerra secreta por las Malvinas", Sudamericana, Bs.As, 1997.Wurgaft, Romy "Argentina amenaza a las empresas que buscan petr�leo en las Malvinas", El Mundo, [En l�nea] [consulta: 15.3.2012]. Disponible en: http://www.elmundo.es________"La pesca, clave en el alto PIB per capita de los habitantes de las Malvinas", El Mundo, [En l�nea] [consulta: 15.3.2012]. Disponible en http://www.elmundo.es Sobre el autorProfesor de Universidad Alberto Hurtado (Chile) Ph.D. en Comunicación (Universidad Carlos IV, República Checa)

The geo-economy presents Lebanon with challenges associated with being a nexus for regional fault lines and risks from its dependence on capital inflows. Despite markedly improved security conditions since the start of 2015, anxiety over regional turmoil and potential spillover effectspersist. All the while, Lebanon continues to be, by far, the largest host of Syrian refugees (in proportion to the population). In addition, the economy's dependence on its diaspora to finance internal and external imbalances exposes Lebanon to economic and political conditions beyond its influence. Despite these challenges and risks, the political process remains impaired with the vacant presidency completing its second year with uncertain prospects of a near-term resolution. On the other hand, a short-term solution has been found to the garbage crisis that has left piles of trash uncollected on the streets across the country since summer 2015. The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development.

Financial regulation affects government revenue whenever it imposes both the mandatory quantity and price of government bonds. This paper studies a banking regulation adopted by the National Bank of Ethiopia in April 2011, which forces all private banks to purchase a fixed negative-yield government bond in proportion to private sector lending. Having access to monthly bank balance sheets, a survey of branch costs and public finances documentation, the effect of the policy on government revenue can be tracked. This is compared to three plausible revenue-generating alternatives: raising funds at competitive rates on international markets; distorting the private lending of the state-owned bank; and raising new deposits through additional branches of the state-owned bank. Three main results emerge: the government revenue gain is moderate (1.5-2.6 percent of the tax revenue); banks comply with the policy and amass more safe assets; banks' profit growth slows without turning negative (from 10 percent to 2 percent).

The Malaysian economy decelerated as solid domestic demand was not sufficient to offset a weakening external environment. Private consumption growth continued at a healthy pace. Favorable rubber and palm oil prices drove up incomes of smallholders while continued employment and wage growth supported urban incomes. In contrast, fixed investment was more volatile, with private investment showing signs of picking up while public investments lagged. Malaysia's overall balance of payments recorded a larger surplus in the first half of the year reflecting a widening current account surplus and substantial net financial inflows. Malaysia's open economy is expected to slow further in the remainder of 2011 and into early 2012 mainly due to the deterioration in the outlook for external demand. Cities are central to Malaysia's aspiration to become a high-income economy. Smart cities are skilled and innovative. They play a crucial role in catalyzing economic growth by generating productivity gains through agglomeration economies. Smart cities are green and sustainable. They ensure a high quality of life to all citizens and the sustainability of economic gains. Finally, smart cities are resilient.

In the private sector, outsourcing has become a recognized feature of the business scene. While there are various reasons for contracting out functions to external organizations, in general the justification relates to the potential cost-benefit from adopting this approach. This study set out to ascertain whether the same considerations applied to administrative procedures associated with starting a business. Did business registries outsource any or all of their functions? If so, did the same considerations apply as for the private sector? Were there lessons to be learned from their experience? Responses to these and other questions were received from 53 registries. This paper is not about global commerce, at least, not in the usual sense. It is about some of the more mundane administrative procedures that underpin the activities of the private sector, the basics that help it to function. Business registration is seen as a key factor in determining the investment climate of a country.

This edition of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional economic update shows that recovery in the region is below historical trends. Its economic prospects depend on global developments and continued strengths in emerging-market demand and oil price trends. Growth in the region is expected to average 4% in 2010, an increase of slightly less than 2 percentage points (pp) over growth in 2009 and weak compared to increases of 5.6pp in advanced economies and 4.5pp in developing nations. Only by 2011 and 2012 is MENA s growth expected to return to the average rates achieved prior to the economic and financial crisis. Recovery has been driven by the global economic rebound and, to varying degrees, by domestic stimulus. Industrial production, which in MENA is dominated by oil, has nearly reached its pre-crisis peak, largely due to the strong recovery in emerging markets, especially Asia. However, the upturn has weakened in recent months because the global slowdown has arrived sooner and is occurring faster than previously anticipated, and there are serious concerns about the sustainability of the global recovery. In response, MENA governments have continued to stimulate their economies in 2010, and even those that did not use any type of fiscal stimulus in 2009 have started implementing fiscal measures in 2010. The economic recovery in MENA has been much less vigorous than the recovery in countries that suffered sharp output contractions. The sustainability of the recovery in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies depends on developments in the rest of the world, and on the extent to which they affect oil markets. The outlook for the global economy and oil markets in the second half of 2010 remains uncertain, and a decline in oil prices cannot be ruled out.

This article reviews the evidence on the importance of finance for economic well-being. It provides data on the use of basic financial services by households and firms across a sample of countries, assesses the desirability of universal access, and provides an overview of the macroeconomic, legal, and regulatory obstacles to access. Despite the benefits of finance, the data show that use of financial services is far from universal in many countries, especially developing countries. Universal access to financial services has not been a public policy objective in most countries and would likely be difficult to achieve. Countries can, however, facilitate access to financial services by strengthening institutional infrastructure, liberalizing markets and facilitating greater competition, and encouraging innovative use of know-how and technology. Government interventions to directly broaden access to finance, however, are costly and fraught with risks, among others the risk of missing the targeted groups. The article concludes with recommendations for global actions aimed at improving data on access and use and suggestions on areas of further analysis to identify constraints to broadening access.

As Ukraine entered the third year of the full-scale war, the situation appeared to have reached a stalemate, despite heavy fighting at different points on the front lines. In mid-February, with Ukrainian supply routes targeted and the troops running short of ammunition, Ukrainian forces had to withdraw from Avdiivka, the scene of some of the most intense fighting in the past half year. However, the Ukrainian army did succeed in destroying much of the Russian Black Sea fleet and airplanes. Ukrainian security services launched successful attacks on Russian oil refineries deep inside Russia, and Russian volunteers fighting on the side of Ukraine continued to conduct military operations in the regions along the border with Ukraine. Russia ramped up its disinformation campaign in Ukraine and Europe, striving to sow doubt among Ukrainians and distrust in the Ukrainian government both domestically and internationally. In late March it renewed its massive attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing serious damage. It also intensified attacks on civilian residential buildings. Future military aid to Ukraine remained a major topic of discussion with Ukraine's international partners. Nonetheless, during the quarter Ukraine signed security cooperation agreements with G-7 members and other states, and the European states made concerted efforts to provide critically necessary artillery rounds to the Ukrainian army.1. ROLLOUT OF THE WARIn February 2024, Ukraine entered the third year of combating Russia's wide-scale invasion, marking ten years of war since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, later unleashing war in the Donbas. The war has changed the country and its economy drastically, though the changes that have occurred over the decade of war differ from those experienced in the two years of the full-scale war. General Developments during January–MarchIn the first quarter of 2024, heavy fighting continued, but without notable changes to the front line. Throughout the quarter the Russian Air Force (RuAF) continued its intense offensive in all directions, expanding on bombing campaigns it had started in October of last year. The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) shifted to defensive actions to exhaust the Russian forces. However, the Ukrainian army had to withdraw from some positions because of a lack of weapons and intense pressure from the RuAF.Russia used phosphorus and chemical weapons during several hard-fought battles. The fiercest Russian attacks were directed at Avdiivka, Donetsk oblast, where the situation resembled the one in Bakhmut last year. In mid-February, lacking ammunition and seeing their supply routes being cutting off, the Ukrainian forces stepped back from their positions in Avdiivka. One month later, the UAF command reported that the situation in the country's East had stabilized. Ukraine stepped up efforts to fortify three major defensive lines.Sea and air operations advances. Though facing a deadlock in land operations, Ukraine realized significant advances in destroying Russia's Black Sea Fleet and shot down several Russian military planes over Ukraine. During the quarter, Ukrainian forces sank five Russian military ships, including three landing ships. As of the end of March, Russia had lost almost all landing ships in the Black Sea. More than a third of the Russian fleet has been disabled, including a submarine. Ukrainian-designed kamikaze sea drones have become the main weapons used in attacking the Russian fleet. To save its Black Sea Fleet, Russia started withdrawing its major vessels from ports in occupied Crimea.Ukraine also shot down Russian military jets that were bombing regions close to the front lines. To illustrate Ukraine's advances in this arena, during just two weeks in late February and early March, Ukrainian forces downed fourteen Russian military airplanes. In addition to Su-34 bombers (used to attack frontline settlements with guided aerial bombs) and modern Su-35 fighter jets, Russia lost two A-50 planes, which together cost about $700 million (they are outfitted with an airborne early warning and control system, designed to detect air defense systems and coordinate targets for Russian fighter jets). Russia had only a few of these planes before the invasion, so the loss of two represents a setback. The RuAF is probably ready to tolerate high losses to maintain the offensive.Russian refineries under attack. In the first quarter of the year, more than a dozen Russian oil refineries deep inside the country came under drone attack by Ukraine (some of the targets were located as far as 560 miles from the border with Ukraine) The Security Service of Ukraine formally admitted to the attacks, defending them on the grounds that refineries are legitimate targets because they provide resources to run the Russian war machine. (Russia's income from oil sales remains high despite international sanctions.) Ukraine also attacked Russian factories producing weapons. Analysts have described the strikes on Russian oil facilities as a new phase of the war. The attacks have affected Russia's refining capabilities. Although Russia has not provided official statistics, the country is believed to have lost about 10 percent of its refining capacity. Because Russia's domestic gas supplies are now diminished, Russia is considering importing gas from Belarus.Contributions of Russian volunteers to the war effort. Russian volunteers fighting on the side of Ukraine under the corps names Freedom of Russia, the Siberian Battalion, and the Russian Volunteer Corps started military operations on the border regions with Ukraine, in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts. Similar operations took place in May 2023, but now the scale of the military actions is bigger and their duration longer. The operations began before the elections in Russia and continued after them. The anti-Kremlin volunteer military units clashed with Russian servicemen and even claimed to have captured some Russian troops.Russia intensified its attacks on civilian targets and critical infrastructure, especially in the frontline regions, notably Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. This may be an attempt to increase pressure on Ukraine while the delivery of military aid and supplies to Ukraine is slowed or suspended, especially the delivery of supplies from the United States. In addition to drones and missiles, Russia started using its new Zircon hypersonic missiles and 1,500-kg (3,300-pound) aerial bombs to target Ukrainian cities. The lack of ammunition, especially air defense missiles, may play a critical role in Ukraine's ability to protect the frontline areas and critical infrastructure across the country; a continuation of massive Russian attacks, in particular attacks using North Korean missiles and Iranian drones, could plunge Ukraine into a new stone age.Engagement of Russia's AlliesAt the beginning of the year, it became evident that North Korea was supplying Russia with missiles, including ballistic missiles. Kyiv said that as of mid-March, Russia had used about fifty of these against Ukraine. The DPRK-origin missiles were found to contain U.S. and European parts. The North Korean defense minister said the country might also supply tactical guided missiles to Russia. According to the official, the country's military factories are working at full capacity. Russia uses DPRK artillery shells. Since September 2023, North Korea has delivered more than 10,000 containers of munitions or munitions-related materials to Russia. Russia started supplying oil to the DPRK in exchange for weapons.Russia is negotiating with Iran as well to receive ballistic missiles. Foreign media have reported that Iran delivered hundreds of these missiles, but Ukrainian intelligence denies this.Belarus earlier was a key supplier of ammunition to support Russia's war. Though its stocks are probably exhausted by now, it remains one of Russia's important allies. Belarus is now building a new military town twenty-five miles from the border with Ukraine that will house both Russian and Belarusian troops. The combined forces started joint training in the Belarusian facility in March. Though Russia relies heavily on ammunition supplies from its allies, the country is still capable of producing its own weapons. For instance, one of the Russian missiles that hit Kyiv in 2024 was made in the summer of 2023. Russia is also pouring money into developing its own drone systems, with the combat drone Okhotnik-B expected to go into production in Novosibirsk later this year.Russian Disinformation Campaigns and CyberattacksRussia continued its disinformation campaign in Ukraine, hoping to undermine trust in the government and sow suspicions abroad. The clear goal is to weaken international support for Ukraine. These efforts are likely to ramp up in 2024 because many countries are holding elections, and policies regarding aid for Ukraine and the reception of Ukrainian refugees could shift drastically. Under normal conditions, Ukraine would also be holding elections. The curtain continues to be pulled back on Russia's disinformation efforts. The Washington Post published material on Russia's huge campaign to spread distrust of the government and societal despair in Ukraine, and the German Marshall Fund issued a report on Russia's use of Polish media to spread the Kremlin's lies about Ukraine. According to Security and Defense Secretary Oleksii Danilov, Russia has significantly stepped up its disinformation campaigns, issuing or spreading 166 million disinformation posts every week about Ukraine on social media in a global effort to manipulate thinking on Ukraine.According to Ukrainian intelligence sources, Russia is engaged in a massive disinformation campaign code-named Maidan-3 and designed to promote antiwar protests and destabilize the country, with the ultimate goal of removing President Zelensky from his leadership role. The campaign is expected be most active during March–May, and persons inside Ukraine are believed to be involved.Deep-fake videos play a prominent role in Russian propaganda. For instance, a deep-fake video of former president Petro Poroshenko allegedly making incendiary statements about President Zelensky was targeted to Ukrainian soldiers. Videos allegedly showing Russians attacking Ukrainian military training camps or Ukrainian special forces shooting civilians are widely circulated; such misrepresentations are unfortunately becoming commonplace.Russia has also continued cyberattacks against Ukrainian media, authorities, and critically important companies, including one of the biggest banks, the biggest state-owned oil and gas company, Naftogaz, POW Coordination Headquarters, Ukraine's Education Ministry website, and so on. Hackers have been sending Ukrainian soldiers messages containing malware. In 2023, the number of cyberattacks against Ukrainian organizations increased by 15.9 percent compared to 2022, reaching an overall number of 2,543 documented cases.Even though ISIS took responsibility for the terrorist shooting in Moscow's Crocus concert hall in March, and Western intelligence said it has proof that Ukraine did not organize it, Russian top officials, including Vladimir Putin, tried to link it to Kyiv, while constantly changing the narrative. The media reported that some in Putin's circle do not see any link to Ukraine. It's possible the Kremlin will try to capitalize on the attack to mobilize Russian society against Ukraine. The head of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) blamed the United States, the UK, and Ukraine as instigators and enablers of the attack.Energy Terrorism and Other Attacks on Critical InfrastructureFrom mid-September 2023 to the end of the year, Russia did not succeed in damaging Ukraine's energy infrastructure, though not for lack of trying. The number of drones Russia launched during October–December 2023 broke records since the invasion. Most were brought down by Ukrainian air defense units before they could inflict damage, so we do not know their intended targets.This picture changed with the new year. Starting in early 2024, Russia focused on attacking energy infrastructure in the frontline regions, which are generally the easiest to reach. Despite the damage this caused, the power systems continued to operate in a relatively stable mode. On the night of March 22, Russia launched a massive attack on the Ukrainian power system, using drones and ballistic and cruise missiles. The largest such attack since the start of the full-scale invasion, it involved sixty Shahed drones and almost ninety missiles of various types. Power production and transmission facilities in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro were targeted. Russians hit the biggest Ukrainian hydropower plant, DniproHES, and the dam of its water reservoir on the Dnipro river in Zaporizhzhia oblast; two other big hydropower plants were damaged in the following days.The biggest private-owned Ukrainian energy company, DTEK, reported that 80 percent of its capacities had been damaged during the attacks by the end of March. In Kharkiv, all thermal power plants and substations were destroyed in the last week of March. The state-owned Centrenergo lost its biggest power plant in Kharkiv oblast. The major attack was followed by attacks in ensuing days. Crimes against Civilians and Attacks on Civilian InfrastructureIn the first quarter of the year, Ukraine faced more Russian drone and missile strikes on multi-block residential buildings, with many civilians injured and killed—in some cases dozens in a single attack. Occasionally multiple cities were attacked simultaneously. Big city targets included Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Sumy. In addition, civil infrastructure in the regions under Ukrainian control and well inside the front lines was regularly attacked, sustaining damage. Since March 11, Russia has been shelling the borders of Sumy oblast, mostly using guided aerial bombs, artillery, and Lancet attack drones.In general, from the start of the year, Ukraine has seen an increased number of civilians killed or wounded in air strikes. Fuel depots and fueling stations have been attacked, leading to civilian casualties and environmental damage. It is now commonplace for Russia to target a wide range of civil infrastructure with air strikes and artillery shelling.One of the numerous air attacks on Odesa happened during the visit of the prime minister of Greece, Kyriakos Mitsotakis. A missile exploded extremely close to the location of Mitsotakis and President Zelensky. Russia has continued committing crimes against civilians in the occupied territories: torturing civilians, forcing them to participate in Russian presidential elections, bugging residents, expropriating apartments, and resettling Russian transplants from deep inside the country in the occupied territories. POW ExchangesPOW exchanges, which had been suspended for a while, were renewed at the beginning of the year, with the largest number of Ukrainians returning home since the start of the wide-scale invasion. On January 24, a few days before the planned POW exchange, a cargo aircraft was shot down in Russia. Moscow blamed Ukraine for downing the plane, claiming it was carrying sixty-five prisoners to be exchanged. However, Russia did not provide any proof that the plane was in fact carrying POWs, and Kyiv said there were no Ukrainian POWs on the plane.Two more POW exchanges took place after the incident, in late January and again in February. 2. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRSPresident Zelensky's Diplomatic ToursIn the first quarter of 2024, President Zelensky undertook several diplomatic tours, hoping to consolidate support for Ukraine. This mission was especially critical in light of the slowing of aid from the United States, and the number of agreements Ukraine reached during this period is testament to the success of these efforts.In January, President Zelensky made a diplomatic trip to the Baltic states, Lithuania,Estonia, and Latvia, which are among the strongest supporters of Ukraine. Zelensky met with the countries' leaders and political elites and expressed gratitude for their support during the ten years of war. They discussed Ukraine's European integration and future cooperation in electromagnetic warfare and military drone production. The three countries remain strong Ukraine's allies of Ukraine in 2024, providing military and humanitarian aid and political support. Ukraine and Latvia signed an agreement on technical and financial cooperation and a memorandum on cooperation on defense and security.President Zelensky left the Baltics for Switzerland to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he addressed the forum's participants on the war in Ukraine and the need to invest in Ukraine's victory. In Davos, he also met with leaders of different states and the world's finance leaders, seeking to boost investment in Ukraine.In February, President Zelensky visited Germany to give a speech and attend the Munich Security Conference. He met his German and Czech counterparts and discussed joint efforts to produce weapons.Later, he visited Saudi Arabia to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and to discuss the Ukrainian Peace Formula and ways to repatriate captured and deported Ukrainians. He left Saudi Arabia for Albania to attend the second Ukraine-Balkans forum, where he also met with the leaders of some Balkan states to discuss European integration efforts. On March 8, he visited Turkey to meet with his counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Repatriating Ukrainian citizens held in captivity in Russia was among the key topics discussed at the meeting. The two countries signed an agreement to simplify bilateral trade and extended permit-free cargo truck movement at least until the end of the war. Security Cooperation AgreementsFrom early 2024, Ukraine began signing agreements on security cooperation with other states. The G-7 states intended to sign these during the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023. Later, twenty-four more states expressed their intention to join this format. The UK was the first country to sign, on January 12, followed by Germany, France. Denmark, Canada, Italy, and the Netherlands. Many countries are in dialogue, negotiating the text of the agreements to be signed. Some agreements stipulate commitments and plans to provide military aid in upcoming years.In Ukraine, these are often called "agreements on security commitments." However, they are more like framework agreements on security and defense cooperation; they do not have the force of a contract and do not spell out specific guarantees or steps the signatories should take to ensure Ukraine's sovereignty. Many experts in Ukraine have criticized the agreements because they do not provide Ukraine with hard security guarantees.Relations with NATOIn January, the NATO-Ukraine Council held a meeting at Ukraine's request after Russia launched massive air strikes against Ukraine at the beginning of the year. The allies reaffirmed their commitment to bolster Ukraine's defenses further and to provide Ukraine with major military, economic, and humanitarian assistance. In March, a NATO military delegation visited Kyiv for the first time since the start of the full-scale invasion.Relations with the United States and CanadaPolitical differences in the U.S. Congress remained an obstacle to achieving consensus on the future of military aid to Ukraine. In March the United States announced the first $300 million security assistance package for Ukraine this year, as supplemental funding was blocked in Congress. Funds for the package came from unanticipated cost savings in existing Pentagon contracts. Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau arrived in Kyiv on the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine to demonstrate his solidarity. Canada joined the drones coalition for Ukraine and allocated $1.5 billion in aid to finance Ukraine's budget deficit.Relations with the EU and the European StatesIn February the EU approved €50 billion in financial support for Ukraine, to run through 2027. Later the EU approved $5.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine for 2024. The EU planned to supply Ukraine by the end of March with half of the one million artillery rounds it has promised to supply by the end of the year. Joint European Efforts to Arm UkraineArtillery rounds to be provided by the Czech Republic. In February, Czech president Petr Pavel said that the country had found a way to acquire 800,000 artillery rounds for Ukraine, but it needed funding. Earlier, the Czech Republic had proposed buying ammunition for Ukraine outside the EU. Almost twenty countries, some outside Europe, joined the initiative and contributed to the fund to buy artillery rounds: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Norway, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, and others. In March, Prague reported it was ready to deliver the first batches of ammunition and that it had found 700,000 shells of other types that could be bought with additional funds.Long-range missiles coalition. In late February, President of France Emmanuel Macron announced a coalition to send Ukraine long-range missiles. On March 15, following a "Weimar Triangle" format meeting in Berlin, the leaders of Germany, France, and Poland agreed on new initiatives in support of Ukraine, including more weapons purchases and a future formation of a coalition on long-range rocket artillery. The initiative includes purchasing more weapons for Ukraine on global markets and expanding military production.Drone coalition. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in February said that allies had established a drone coalition for Ukraine, committing to supplying one million drones. The UK and Latvia will lead an international coalition to develop vital drones for Ukraine.Cybersecurity support. In February, the IT Coalition for Ukraine signed an agreement to enhance Ukraine's defense capabilities in communications and cybersecurity—an important step in light of Russia's use of IT in conducting the war. The coalition was established in September 2023. It is led by Estonia and Luxembourg and includes Ukraine, Belgium, Denmark, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, and the Netherlands.France was the key newsmaker regarding Ukraine and its defensive fighting against Russia. Except for the agreement on security guarantees between the two countries, President Macron was the first leader to observe publicly that troops might have to be sent to Ukraine if Russia continued its advances. The statement caused a heated discussion with the leaders of other states, but Macron insisted it was not an off-the-cuff remark but a well-considered, realistic view. He referred to Russia's war as an existential threat to France and Europe. French foreign minister Stephane Sejourne visited Kyiv in January, reassuring Ukraine of longlasting support. Later, France announced new military aid to Ukraine, including artillery and air defense systems, drones, guided bombs, and other important pieces. France is considering expanding military aid programs for Ukraine, and President Macron called on Europe to be ready to compensate for reduced U.S. support. The UK, Germany, and the Netherlands continued to be among the biggest European supporters in providing military aid and economic assistance.Relations with Hungary remained strained. The country blocked the EU's €50 billion aid initiative for a few months, and also blocked the EU's joint statement commemorating the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale war. Pressure from the European Parliament probably encouraged Hungary to change its position. Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba met his Hungarian counterpart in January to discuss a potential visit by Zelensky to Budapest aimed at improving bilateral relations. Later, Hungarian foreign minister Péter Szijjártó explained that such a meeting between Viktor Orbán and Zelensky would be impossible until Kyiv restored the rights of the Hungarian ethnic minority as they had existed before 2015.The prime ministers of Ukraine and Slovakia met in Ukraine and signed a joint statement to strengthen bilateral relations "based on mutual trust and respect." The Slovak prime minister promised not to obstruct Ukraine's purchases of weapons from Slovak companies and said that Bratislava would support the EU providing €50 billion in financial aid to Ukraine.The border blockade by farmers was a key issue in bilateral relations with Poland and remained contentious throughout the quarter. At different times, farmers and truck drivers have thrown up blockades, affecting almost all of Ukraine's border crossings.Polish farmers are demanding restrictions on imports from Ukraine, in the belief that their market prices have fallen because of competition. Poland had earlier banned food imports from Ukraine, allowing transit only. Polish officials confirmed that Ukrainian grain was not imported but merely transiting the country to destinations beyond. Kyiv says that now only 5 percent of Ukrainian food exports go through Poland, with most grain exports to be shipped by sea. Farmers are also protesting the EU's climate change policies and blocking other border crossings, including some on the border with Germany. Polish haulers on strike demanded the restoration of permits for Ukrainian carriers, a ban on the issuance of licenses to non-EU transport companies, and a waiver for empty Polish trucks to register through the Ukrainian electronic queue when returning to Poland from Ukraine. However, the blockade by haulers was much shorter this quarter.The blockade lasted the entire quarter, though not with the same sustained intensity. The blockade may be politically inspired, especially if one considers that the country will hold local elections in April. Farmers even tried to block railway connections with Ukraine and passenger transportation. The European Commission expressed concern regarding the blockade. The Polish government's attempts to settle the issue were unsuccessful, though it is unclear how robust those efforts were.The blockades created long lines at the borders, complicating the importation of even critically important goods such as military equipment. During the protests, Polish farmers from time to time dumped Ukrainian grain that was transiting Poland to other states, causing tension and tight-lipped reactions in Ukraine. It should be noted once again that one of the protest organizers is Rafał Mekler, a member of the Polish far-right National Movement Party, also known as the Confederation Party, which is skeptical about the EU and less friendly toward Ukraine. Mekler's role is important because Russia is seeking to take advantage of domestic Polish discontent by spreading its anti-Ukrainian narratives in Poland. Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said he would not tolerate anti-Ukrainian sentiments in his government. Tusk visited Kyiv in January to announce a new aid package for Ukraine. At the same time, Poland continues to import grain and fuel from Russia and Belarus without any protests taking place on Poland's border with those states. Polish police detained Ukrainian journalists who investigated the import of goods at the border with Belarus. Other Ukrainian journalists were later similarly detained and deported from Poland while investigating trade with Russia. In late March, the Ukrainian and Polish prime ministers met in Warsaw to discuss the dispute. The parties have made some progress, but the problem remains. In mid-January, farmers in Romaniaagain started a blockade. However, the Romanian government quickly negotiated with the protesters, and the blockade was dissolved in early February. Ukrainian exports through Romania rose by 50 percent while those through Poland, formerly the biggest transit country, decreased.JapanIn February, Japan hosted a conference on Ukraine's restoration. The event brought together about 200 Japanese and Ukrainian companies, which signed fifty-six agreements and memorandums of cooperation. Japan allocated more than $12 billion in aid to Ukraine and will spend €1.25 billion to support investments in Ukraine.Debates on Transferring Frozen Russian Assets for UkraineIn the first quarter of 2024, Ukraine's allies continued to debate the use of frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine's needs during the war. A group of international law experts and practitioners concluded that it would be lawful, under international law, to transfer Russian state assets as compensation for the damage that has resulted directly from Russia's unlawful conduct. There was a debate in the EU about whether these funds should be held for future use in reconstructing Ukraine or be spent now on weapons. High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell supported the idea of using 90 percent of the revenue generated by frozen Russian assets to purchase weapons for Ukraine. Among the EU member states, Hungary and Austria expressed opposition to using these funds for weapons.The Fighter Jet Coalition DevelopmentsWhen the allies agreed to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, the craft were expected to arrive in early 2024. At the beginning of the year, the media reported that delivery of the first jet might be delayed to mid-2024. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the delivery date will depend on when Ukrainian pilots will be ready to fly them after training.The first group of Ukrainian pilots will complete F-16 training by the summer. But probably only six F-16s will have been delivered out of about forty-five fighter jets that European allies have promised. The Netherlands decided to send six more F-16 jets to Ukraine in addition to the eighteen the country promised to supply in late 2023. 3. INTERNAL AFFAIRSReshufflesOne of the most shocking internal events in Ukraine was the dismissal of Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi. President Zelensky appointed General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who had previously served as commander of Ukraine's Land Forces, the new commander-in-chief and gave him wide latitude to make personnel changes. Zelensky explained his decision by citing the need to reboot management of the military command and to change the military strategy. However, Zaluzhnyi had made clear his frustration with the progress of the war on international media, and there are political tensions between the two men, with Zaluzhnyi's trust rating among survey respondents higher than Zelensky's.In February the government appointed a new head of the National Agency on Corruption Prevention, Viktor Pavlushchyk, as the previous head, Oleksandr Novikov, had completed his four-year term in the position. Pavlushchyk was selected as the head of the agency by a competition. In late March, President Zelensky dismissed the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, and appointed Oleksandr Lytvynenko, a former head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, to the position. Danilov later was appointed ambassador to Moldova. The Economic SituationUkraine's economy remained relatively stable in the first quarter of 2024. However, the government experienced difficulty covering budget expenditures with a drop in foreign financial aid: in the first two months of 2024, Ukraine received only 10 percent of the planned financial aid from its allies.Slowing inflation led the National Bank to decrease its key rate to 14.5 percent. At the same time, the IMF expects the economic shock to begin in the second quarter of 2024 with the intensification of the war. Ukrainian agencies expect lower economic growth for 2024 as well.The Energy SituationDuring January and February 2024, Russia attacked Ukraine's energy facilities, mostly in regions close to the front. The power system continued to operate normally, however, and electricity exports to the EU in early March broke records since the start of the wide-scale invasion. The situation rapidly reversed after the attacks in late March, and Ukraine became deeply dependent on electricity imports from Europe, realizing record-high volumes of imports. Ukraine got through the winter just passed using domestically produced gas only. This was possible in part because the demand for natural gas has fallen since the start of the wide-scale invasion.4. PROGRESS IN REFORMS AND SUCCESS STORIESPlan of Reforms for the Ukraine Facility Funding ProgramIn March, the government approved a Plan of Reforms for 2024–2027. The plan addresses reform of the public administration and judicial system and strengthening the battle against corruption; economic reforms, such as management of public assets and creating an attractive environment for investment; and sectoral reforms (energy, transport agriculture, critical raw materials, small business, IT, and environment). It provides a basis for funding the Ukraine Facility, the EU's financial support program for Ukraine, which is expected to provide €50 billion over four years. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal submitted the plan to the European Commission for approval. The first tranche of funding was released on March 20.Oscar Award for 20 Days in Mariupol DocumentaryThe Ukrainian film 20 Days in Mariupol won the Best Documentary award at the 96th Academy Awards. It is the first film made by a Ukrainian director to have won an Oscar. The film records the atrocities committed during Russia's months-long siege of the city of Mariupol in 2022. The documentary was put together by a team of Ukrainian journalists from the Associated Press and included the film director, Mstyslav Chernov. The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.

As Ukraine entered the third year of the full-scale war, the situation appeared to have reached a stalemate, despite heavy fighting at different points on the front lines. In mid-February, with Ukrainian supply routes targeted and the troops running short of ammunition, Ukrainian forces had to withdraw from Avdiivka, the scene of some of the most intense fighting in the past half year. However, the Ukrainian army did succeed in destroying much of the Russian Black Sea fleet and airplanes. Ukrainian security services launched successful attacks on Russian oil refineries deep inside Russia, and Russian volunteers fighting on the side of Ukraine continued to conduct military operations in the regions along the border with Ukraine. Russia ramped up its disinformation campaign in Ukraine and Europe, striving to sow doubt among Ukrainians and distrust in the Ukrainian government both domestically and internationally. In late March it renewed its massive attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing serious damage. It also intensified attacks on civilian residential buildings. Future military aid to Ukraine remained a major topic of discussion with Ukraine's international partners. Nonetheless, during the quarter Ukraine signed security cooperation agreements with G-7 members and other states, and the European states made concerted efforts to provide critically necessary artillery rounds to the Ukrainian army.1. ROLLOUT OF THE WARIn February 2024, Ukraine entered the third year of combating Russia's wide-scale invasion, marking ten years of war since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, later unleashing war in the Donbas. The war has changed the country and its economy drastically, though the changes that have occurred over the decade of war differ from those experienced in the two years of the full-scale war. General Developments during January–MarchIn the first quarter of 2024, heavy fighting continued, but without notable changes to the front line. Throughout the quarter the Russian Air Force (RuAF) continued its intense offensive in all directions, expanding on bombing campaigns it had started in October of last year. The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) shifted to defensive actions to exhaust the Russian forces. However, the Ukrainian army had to withdraw from some positions because of a lack of weapons and intense pressure from the RuAF.Russia used phosphorus and chemical weapons during several hard-fought battles. The fiercest Russian attacks were directed at Avdiivka, Donetsk oblast, where the situation resembled the one in Bakhmut last year. In mid-February, lacking ammunition and seeing their supply routes being cutting off, the Ukrainian forces stepped back from their positions in Avdiivka. One month later, the UAF command reported that the situation in the country's East had stabilized. Ukraine stepped up efforts to fortify three major defensive lines.Sea and air operations advances. Though facing a deadlock in land operations, Ukraine realized significant advances in destroying Russia's Black Sea Fleet and shot down several Russian military planes over Ukraine. During the quarter, Ukrainian forces sank five Russian military ships, including three landing ships. As of the end of March, Russia had lost almost all landing ships in the Black Sea. More than a third of the Russian fleet has been disabled, including a submarine. Ukrainian-designed kamikaze sea drones have become the main weapons used in attacking the Russian fleet. To save its Black Sea Fleet, Russia started withdrawing its major vessels from ports in occupied Crimea.Ukraine also shot down Russian military jets that were bombing regions close to the front lines. To illustrate Ukraine's advances in this arena, during just two weeks in late February and early March, Ukrainian forces downed fourteen Russian military airplanes. In addition to Su-34 bombers (used to attack frontline settlements with guided aerial bombs) and modern Su-35 fighter jets, Russia lost two A-50 planes, which together cost about $700 million (they are outfitted with an airborne early warning and control system, designed to detect air defense systems and coordinate targets for Russian fighter jets). Russia had only a few of these planes before the invasion, so the loss of two represents a setback. The RuAF is probably ready to tolerate high losses to maintain the offensive.Russian refineries under attack. In the first quarter of the year, more than a dozen Russian oil refineries deep inside the country came under drone attack by Ukraine (some of the targets were located as far as 560 miles from the border with Ukraine) The Security Service of Ukraine formally admitted to the attacks, defending them on the grounds that refineries are legitimate targets because they provide resources to run the Russian war machine. (Russia's income from oil sales remains high despite international sanctions.) Ukraine also attacked Russian factories producing weapons. Analysts have described the strikes on Russian oil facilities as a new phase of the war. The attacks have affected Russia's refining capabilities. Although Russia has not provided official statistics, the country is believed to have lost about 10 percent of its refining capacity. Because Russia's domestic gas supplies are now diminished, Russia is considering importing gas from Belarus.Contributions of Russian volunteers to the war effort. Russian volunteers fighting on the side of Ukraine under the corps names Freedom of Russia, the Siberian Battalion, and the Russian Volunteer Corps started military operations on the border regions with Ukraine, in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts. Similar operations took place in May 2023, but now the scale of the military actions is bigger and their duration longer. The operations began before the elections in Russia and continued after them. The anti-Kremlin volunteer military units clashed with Russian servicemen and even claimed to have captured some Russian troops.Russia intensified its attacks on civilian targets and critical infrastructure, especially in the frontline regions, notably Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. This may be an attempt to increase pressure on Ukraine while the delivery of military aid and supplies to Ukraine is slowed or suspended, especially the delivery of supplies from the United States. In addition to drones and missiles, Russia started using its new Zircon hypersonic missiles and 1,500-kg (3,300-pound) aerial bombs to target Ukrainian cities. The lack of ammunition, especially air defense missiles, may play a critical role in Ukraine's ability to protect the frontline areas and critical infrastructure across the country; a continuation of massive Russian attacks, in particular attacks using North Korean missiles and Iranian drones, could plunge Ukraine into a new stone age.Engagement of Russia's AlliesAt the beginning of the year, it became evident that North Korea was supplying Russia with missiles, including ballistic missiles. Kyiv said that as of mid-March, Russia had used about fifty of these against Ukraine. The DPRK-origin missiles were found to contain U.S. and European parts. The North Korean defense minister said the country might also supply tactical guided missiles to Russia. According to the official, the country's military factories are working at full capacity. Russia uses DPRK artillery shells. Since September 2023, North Korea has delivered more than 10,000 containers of munitions or munitions-related materials to Russia. Russia started supplying oil to the DPRK in exchange for weapons.Russia is negotiating with Iran as well to receive ballistic missiles. Foreign media have reported that Iran delivered hundreds of these missiles, but Ukrainian intelligence denies this.Belarus earlier was a key supplier of ammunition to support Russia's war. Though its stocks are probably exhausted by now, it remains one of Russia's important allies. Belarus is now building a new military town twenty-five miles from the border with Ukraine that will house both Russian and Belarusian troops. The combined forces started joint training in the Belarusian facility in March. Though Russia relies heavily on ammunition supplies from its allies, the country is still capable of producing its own weapons. For instance, one of the Russian missiles that hit Kyiv in 2024 was made in the summer of 2023. Russia is also pouring money into developing its own drone systems, with the combat drone Okhotnik-B expected to go into production in Novosibirsk later this year.Russian Disinformation Campaigns and CyberattacksRussia continued its disinformation campaign in Ukraine, hoping to undermine trust in the government and sow suspicions abroad. The clear goal is to weaken international support for Ukraine. These efforts are likely to ramp up in 2024 because many countries are holding elections, and policies regarding aid for Ukraine and the reception of Ukrainian refugees could shift drastically. Under normal conditions, Ukraine would also be holding elections. The curtain continues to be pulled back on Russia's disinformation efforts. The Washington Post published material on Russia's huge campaign to spread distrust of the government and societal despair in Ukraine, and the German Marshall Fund issued a report on Russia's use of Polish media to spread the Kremlin's lies about Ukraine. According to Security and Defense Secretary Oleksii Danilov, Russia has significantly stepped up its disinformation campaigns, issuing or spreading 166 million disinformation posts every week about Ukraine on social media in a global effort to manipulate thinking on Ukraine.According to Ukrainian intelligence sources, Russia is engaged in a massive disinformation campaign code-named Maidan-3 and designed to promote antiwar protests and destabilize the country, with the ultimate goal of removing President Zelensky from his leadership role. The campaign is expected be most active during March–May, and persons inside Ukraine are believed to be involved.Deep-fake videos play a prominent role in Russian propaganda. For instance, a deep-fake video of former president Petro Poroshenko allegedly making incendiary statements about President Zelensky was targeted to Ukrainian soldiers. Videos allegedly showing Russians attacking Ukrainian military training camps or Ukrainian special forces shooting civilians are widely circulated; such misrepresentations are unfortunately becoming commonplace.Russia has also continued cyberattacks against Ukrainian media, authorities, and critically important companies, including one of the biggest banks, the biggest state-owned oil and gas company, Naftogaz, POW Coordination Headquarters, Ukraine's Education Ministry website, and so on. Hackers have been sending Ukrainian soldiers messages containing malware. In 2023, the number of cyberattacks against Ukrainian organizations increased by 15.9 percent compared to 2022, reaching an overall number of 2,543 documented cases.Even though ISIS took responsibility for the terrorist shooting in Moscow's Crocus concert hall in March, and Western intelligence said it has proof that Ukraine did not organize it, Russian top officials, including Vladimir Putin, tried to link it to Kyiv, while constantly changing the narrative. The media reported that some in Putin's circle do not see any link to Ukraine. It's possible the Kremlin will try to capitalize on the attack to mobilize Russian society against Ukraine. The head of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) blamed the United States, the UK, and Ukraine as instigators and enablers of the attack.Energy Terrorism and Other Attacks on Critical InfrastructureFrom mid-September 2023 to the end of the year, Russia did not succeed in damaging Ukraine's energy infrastructure, though not for lack of trying. The number of drones Russia launched during October–December 2023 broke records since the invasion. Most were brought down by Ukrainian air defense units before they could inflict damage, so we do not know their intended targets.This picture changed with the new year. Starting in early 2024, Russia focused on attacking energy infrastructure in the frontline regions, which are generally the easiest to reach. Despite the damage this caused, the power systems continued to operate in a relatively stable mode. On the night of March 22, Russia launched a massive attack on the Ukrainian power system, using drones and ballistic and cruise missiles. The largest such attack since the start of the full-scale invasion, it involved sixty Shahed drones and almost ninety missiles of various types. Power production and transmission facilities in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro were targeted. Russians hit the biggest Ukrainian hydropower plant, DniproHES, and the dam of its water reservoir on the Dnipro river in Zaporizhzhia oblast; two other big hydropower plants were damaged in the following days.The biggest private-owned Ukrainian energy company, DTEK, reported that 80 percent of its capacities had been damaged during the attacks by the end of March. In Kharkiv, all thermal power plants and substations were destroyed in the last week of March. The state-owned Centrenergo lost its biggest power plant in Kharkiv oblast. The major attack was followed by attacks in ensuing days. Crimes against Civilians and Attacks on Civilian InfrastructureIn the first quarter of the year, Ukraine faced more Russian drone and missile strikes on multi-block residential buildings, with many civilians injured and killed—in some cases dozens in a single attack. Occasionally multiple cities were attacked simultaneously. Big city targets included Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Sumy. In addition, civil infrastructure in the regions under Ukrainian control and well inside the front lines was regularly attacked, sustaining damage. Since March 11, Russia has been shelling the borders of Sumy oblast, mostly using guided aerial bombs, artillery, and Lancet attack drones.In general, from the start of the year, Ukraine has seen an increased number of civilians killed or wounded in air strikes. Fuel depots and fueling stations have been attacked, leading to civilian casualties and environmental damage. It is now commonplace for Russia to target a wide range of civil infrastructure with air strikes and artillery shelling.One of the numerous air attacks on Odesa happened during the visit of the prime minister of Greece, Kyriakos Mitsotakis. A missile exploded extremely close to the location of Mitsotakis and President Zelensky. Russia has continued committing crimes against civilians in the occupied territories: torturing civilians, forcing them to participate in Russian presidential elections, bugging residents, expropriating apartments, and resettling Russian transplants from deep inside the country in the occupied territories. POW ExchangesPOW exchanges, which had been suspended for a while, were renewed at the beginning of the year, with the largest number of Ukrainians returning home since the start of the wide-scale invasion. On January 24, a few days before the planned POW exchange, a cargo aircraft was shot down in Russia. Moscow blamed Ukraine for downing the plane, claiming it was carrying sixty-five prisoners to be exchanged. However, Russia did not provide any proof that the plane was in fact carrying POWs, and Kyiv said there were no Ukrainian POWs on the plane.Two more POW exchanges took place after the incident, in late January and again in February. 2. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRSPresident Zelensky's Diplomatic ToursIn the first quarter of 2024, President Zelensky undertook several diplomatic tours, hoping to consolidate support for Ukraine. This mission was especially critical in light of the slowing of aid from the United States, and the number of agreements Ukraine reached during this period is testament to the success of these efforts.In January, President Zelensky made a diplomatic trip to the Baltic states, Lithuania,Estonia, and Latvia, which are among the strongest supporters of Ukraine. Zelensky met with the countries' leaders and political elites and expressed gratitude for their support during the ten years of war. They discussed Ukraine's European integration and future cooperation in electromagnetic warfare and military drone production. The three countries remain strong Ukraine's allies of Ukraine in 2024, providing military and humanitarian aid and political support. Ukraine and Latvia signed an agreement on technical and financial cooperation and a memorandum on cooperation on defense and security.President Zelensky left the Baltics for Switzerland to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he addressed the forum's participants on the war in Ukraine and the need to invest in Ukraine's victory. In Davos, he also met with leaders of different states and the world's finance leaders, seeking to boost investment in Ukraine.In February, President Zelensky visited Germany to give a speech and attend the Munich Security Conference. He met his German and Czech counterparts and discussed joint efforts to produce weapons.Later, he visited Saudi Arabia to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and to discuss the Ukrainian Peace Formula and ways to repatriate captured and deported Ukrainians. He left Saudi Arabia for Albania to attend the second Ukraine-Balkans forum, where he also met with the leaders of some Balkan states to discuss European integration efforts. On March 8, he visited Turkey to meet with his counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Repatriating Ukrainian citizens held in captivity in Russia was among the key topics discussed at the meeting. The two countries signed an agreement to simplify bilateral trade and extended permit-free cargo truck movement at least until the end of the war. Security Cooperation AgreementsFrom early 2024, Ukraine began signing agreements on security cooperation with other states. The G-7 states intended to sign these during the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023. Later, twenty-four more states expressed their intention to join this format. The UK was the first country to sign, on January 12, followed by Germany, France. Denmark, Canada, Italy, and the Netherlands. Many countries are in dialogue, negotiating the text of the agreements to be signed. Some agreements stipulate commitments and plans to provide military aid in upcoming years.In Ukraine, these are often called "agreements on security commitments." However, they are more like framework agreements on security and defense cooperation; they do not have the force of a contract and do not spell out specific guarantees or steps the signatories should take to ensure Ukraine's sovereignty. Many experts in Ukraine have criticized the agreements because they do not provide Ukraine with hard security guarantees.Relations with NATOIn January, the NATO-Ukraine Council held a meeting at Ukraine's request after Russia launched massive air strikes against Ukraine at the beginning of the year. The allies reaffirmed their commitment to bolster Ukraine's defenses further and to provide Ukraine with major military, economic, and humanitarian assistance. In March, a NATO military delegation visited Kyiv for the first time since the start of the full-scale invasion.Relations with the United States and CanadaPolitical differences in the U.S. Congress remained an obstacle to achieving consensus on the future of military aid to Ukraine. In March the United States announced the first $300 million security assistance package for Ukraine this year, as supplemental funding was blocked in Congress. Funds for the package came from unanticipated cost savings in existing Pentagon contracts. Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau arrived in Kyiv on the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine to demonstrate his solidarity. Canada joined the drones coalition for Ukraine and allocated $1.5 billion in aid to finance Ukraine's budget deficit.Relations with the EU and the European StatesIn February the EU approved €50 billion in financial support for Ukraine, to run through 2027. Later the EU approved $5.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine for 2024. The EU planned to supply Ukraine by the end of March with half of the one million artillery rounds it has promised to supply by the end of the year. Joint European Efforts to Arm UkraineArtillery rounds to be provided by the Czech Republic. In February, Czech president Petr Pavel said that the country had found a way to acquire 800,000 artillery rounds for Ukraine, but it needed funding. Earlier, the Czech Republic had proposed buying ammunition for Ukraine outside the EU. Almost twenty countries, some outside Europe, joined the initiative and contributed to the fund to buy artillery rounds: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Norway, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, and others. In March, Prague reported it was ready to deliver the first batches of ammunition and that it had found 700,000 shells of other types that could be bought with additional funds.Long-range missiles coalition. In late February, President of France Emmanuel Macron announced a coalition to send Ukraine long-range missiles. On March 15, following a "Weimar Triangle" format meeting in Berlin, the leaders of Germany, France, and Poland agreed on new initiatives in support of Ukraine, including more weapons purchases and a future formation of a coalition on long-range rocket artillery. The initiative includes purchasing more weapons for Ukraine on global markets and expanding military production.Drone coalition. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in February said that allies had established a drone coalition for Ukraine, committing to supplying one million drones. The UK and Latvia will lead an international coalition to develop vital drones for Ukraine.Cybersecurity support. In February, the IT Coalition for Ukraine signed an agreement to enhance Ukraine's defense capabilities in communications and cybersecurity—an important step in light of Russia's use of IT in conducting the war. The coalition was established in September 2023. It is led by Estonia and Luxembourg and includes Ukraine, Belgium, Denmark, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, and the Netherlands.France was the key newsmaker regarding Ukraine and its defensive fighting against Russia. Except for the agreement on security guarantees between the two countries, President Macron was the first leader to observe publicly that troops might have to be sent to Ukraine if Russia continued its advances. The statement caused a heated discussion with the leaders of other states, but Macron insisted it was not an off-the-cuff remark but a well-considered, realistic view. He referred to Russia's war as an existential threat to France and Europe. French foreign minister Stephane Sejourne visited Kyiv in January, reassuring Ukraine of longlasting support. Later, France announced new military aid to Ukraine, including artillery and air defense systems, drones, guided bombs, and other important pieces. France is considering expanding military aid programs for Ukraine, and President Macron called on Europe to be ready to compensate for reduced U.S. support. The UK, Germany, and the Netherlands continued to be among the biggest European supporters in providing military aid and economic assistance.Relations with Hungary remained strained. The country blocked the EU's €50 billion aid initiative for a few months, and also blocked the EU's joint statement commemorating the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale war. Pressure from the European Parliament probably encouraged Hungary to change its position. Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba met his Hungarian counterpart in January to discuss a potential visit by Zelensky to Budapest aimed at improving bilateral relations. Later, Hungarian foreign minister Péter Szijjártó explained that such a meeting between Viktor Orbán and Zelensky would be impossible until Kyiv restored the rights of the Hungarian ethnic minority as they had existed before 2015.The prime ministers of Ukraine and Slovakia met in Ukraine and signed a joint statement to strengthen bilateral relations "based on mutual trust and respect." The Slovak prime minister promised not to obstruct Ukraine's purchases of weapons from Slovak companies and said that Bratislava would support the EU providing €50 billion in financial aid to Ukraine.The border blockade by farmers was a key issue in bilateral relations with Poland and remained contentious throughout the quarter. At different times, farmers and truck drivers have thrown up blockades, affecting almost all of Ukraine's border crossings.Polish farmers are demanding restrictions on imports from Ukraine, in the belief that their market prices have fallen because of competition. Poland had earlier banned food imports from Ukraine, allowing transit only. Polish officials confirmed that Ukrainian grain was not imported but merely transiting the country to destinations beyond. Kyiv says that now only 5 percent of Ukrainian food exports go through Poland, with most grain exports to be shipped by sea. Farmers are also protesting the EU's climate change policies and blocking other border crossings, including some on the border with Germany. Polish haulers on strike demanded the restoration of permits for Ukrainian carriers, a ban on the issuance of licenses to non-EU transport companies, and a waiver for empty Polish trucks to register through the Ukrainian electronic queue when returning to Poland from Ukraine. However, the blockade by haulers was much shorter this quarter.The blockade lasted the entire quarter, though not with the same sustained intensity. The blockade may be politically inspired, especially if one considers that the country will hold local elections in April. Farmers even tried to block railway connections with Ukraine and passenger transportation. The European Commission expressed concern regarding the blockade. The Polish government's attempts to settle the issue were unsuccessful, though it is unclear how robust those efforts were.The blockades created long lines at the borders, complicating the importation of even critically important goods such as military equipment. During the protests, Polish farmers from time to time dumped Ukrainian grain that was transiting Poland to other states, causing tension and tight-lipped reactions in Ukraine. It should be noted once again that one of the protest organizers is Rafał Mekler, a member of the Polish far-right National Movement Party, also known as the Confederation Party, which is skeptical about the EU and less friendly toward Ukraine. Mekler's role is important because Russia is seeking to take advantage of domestic Polish discontent by spreading its anti-Ukrainian narratives in Poland. Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said he would not tolerate anti-Ukrainian sentiments in his government. Tusk visited Kyiv in January to announce a new aid package for Ukraine. At the same time, Poland continues to import grain and fuel from Russia and Belarus without any protests taking place on Poland's border with those states. Polish police detained Ukrainian journalists who investigated the import of goods at the border with Belarus. Other Ukrainian journalists were later similarly detained and deported from Poland while investigating trade with Russia. In late March, the Ukrainian and Polish prime ministers met in Warsaw to discuss the dispute. The parties have made some progress, but the problem remains. In mid-January, farmers in Romaniaagain started a blockade. However, the Romanian government quickly negotiated with the protesters, and the blockade was dissolved in early February. Ukrainian exports through Romania rose by 50 percent while those through Poland, formerly the biggest transit country, decreased.JapanIn February, Japan hosted a conference on Ukraine's restoration. The event brought together about 200 Japanese and Ukrainian companies, which signed fifty-six agreements and memorandums of cooperation. Japan allocated more than $12 billion in aid to Ukraine and will spend €1.25 billion to support investments in Ukraine.Debates on Transferring Frozen Russian Assets for UkraineIn the first quarter of 2024, Ukraine's allies continued to debate the use of frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine's needs during the war. A group of international law experts and practitioners concluded that it would be lawful, under international law, to transfer Russian state assets as compensation for the damage that has resulted directly from Russia's unlawful conduct. There was a debate in the EU about whether these funds should be held for future use in reconstructing Ukraine or be spent now on weapons. High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell supported the idea of using 90 percent of the revenue generated by frozen Russian assets to purchase weapons for Ukraine. Among the EU member states, Hungary and Austria expressed opposition to using these funds for weapons.The Fighter Jet Coalition DevelopmentsWhen the allies agreed to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, the craft were expected to arrive in early 2024. At the beginning of the year, the media reported that delivery of the first jet might be delayed to mid-2024. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the delivery date will depend on when Ukrainian pilots will be ready to fly them after training.The first group of Ukrainian pilots will complete F-16 training by the summer. But probably only six F-16s will have been delivered out of about forty-five fighter jets that European allies have promised. The Netherlands decided to send six more F-16 jets to Ukraine in addition to the eighteen the country promised to supply in late 2023. 3. INTERNAL AFFAIRSReshufflesOne of the most shocking internal events in Ukraine was the dismissal of Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi. President Zelensky appointed General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who had previously served as commander of Ukraine's Land Forces, the new commander-in-chief and gave him wide latitude to make personnel changes. Zelensky explained his decision by citing the need to reboot management of the military command and to change the military strategy. However, Zaluzhnyi had made clear his frustration with the progress of the war on international media, and there are political tensions between the two men, with Zaluzhnyi's trust rating among survey respondents higher than Zelensky's.In February the government appointed a new head of the National Agency on Corruption Prevention, Viktor Pavlushchyk, as the previous head, Oleksandr Novikov, had completed his four-year term in the position. Pavlushchyk was selected as the head of the agency by a competition. In late March, President Zelensky dismissed the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, and appointed Oleksandr Lytvynenko, a former head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, to the position. Danilov later was appointed ambassador to Moldova. The Economic SituationUkraine's economy remained relatively stable in the first quarter of 2024. However, the government experienced difficulty covering budget expenditures with a drop in foreign financial aid: in the first two months of 2024, Ukraine received only 10 percent of the planned financial aid from its allies.Slowing inflation led the National Bank to decrease its key rate to 14.5 percent. At the same time, the IMF expects the economic shock to begin in the second quarter of 2024 with the intensification of the war. Ukrainian agencies expect lower economic growth for 2024 as well.The Energy SituationDuring January and February 2024, Russia attacked Ukraine's energy facilities, mostly in regions close to the front. The power system continued to operate normally, however, and electricity exports to the EU in early March broke records since the start of the wide-scale invasion. The situation rapidly reversed after the attacks in late March, and Ukraine became deeply dependent on electricity imports from Europe, realizing record-high volumes of imports. Ukraine got through the winter just passed using domestically produced gas only. This was possible in part because the demand for natural gas has fallen since the start of the wide-scale invasion.4. PROGRESS IN REFORMS AND SUCCESS STORIESPlan of Reforms for the Ukraine Facility Funding ProgramIn March, the government approved a Plan of Reforms for 2024–2027. The plan addresses reform of the public administration and judicial system and strengthening the battle against corruption; economic reforms, such as management of public assets and creating an attractive environment for investment; and sectoral reforms (energy, transport agriculture, critical raw materials, small business, IT, and environment). It provides a basis for funding the Ukraine Facility, the EU's financial support program for Ukraine, which is expected to provide €50 billion over four years. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal submitted the plan to the European Commission for approval. The first tranche of funding was released on March 20.Oscar Award for 20 Days in Mariupol DocumentaryThe Ukrainian film 20 Days in Mariupol won the Best Documentary award at the 96th Academy Awards. It is the first film made by a Ukrainian director to have won an Oscar. The film records the atrocities committed during Russia's months-long siege of the city of Mariupol in 2022. The documentary was put together by a team of Ukrainian journalists from the Associated Press and included the film director, Mstyslav Chernov. The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.

Throughout, the history of the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region, natural resource wealth has been critical for its economies. Production of precious metals, sugar, rubber, grains, coffee, copper, and oil have at various periods of history made countries in Latin America-and their colonial powers-some of the most prosperous in the world. In some ways, these commodities may have changed the course of history in the world at large. Latin America produced around 80 percent of the world's silver in the 16th through 19th centuries, fueling the monetary systems of not only Europe, but China and India as well. The dramatic movements in commodity markets since the early 2000s, as well as the recent economic crisis, provide new data to analyze and also underscore the importance of a better understanding of issues related to boom-bust commodity cycles. The current pattern of global recovery has favored LAC so far. Countercyclical policies have supported domestic demand in the larger LAC economies, and external demand from fast-growing emerging markets has boosted exports and terms of trade for LAC's net commodity exporters. Prospects for LAC in the short term look good. Beyond the cyclical rebound, however, the region's major longer-run challenge going forward will be to craft a bold productivity agenda. With LAC coming out of this crisis relatively well positioned, this may well be possible, especially considering that the region's improved macro-financial resiliency gives greater assurance that future gains from growth will not be wiped out by financial crises. In addition, LAC has been making significant strides in the equity agenda and this could help mobilize consensus in favor of a long overdue growth-oriented reform agenda. But it remains to be seen whether the region will be able to seize the opportunity to boost long-run growth, especially considering the large gaps that LAC would need to close in such key areas as saving, human capital accumulation, physical infrastructure, and the ability to adopt and adapt new technologies.

First in a series, which aims to analyze the recent economic and financial situation in Côte d'Ivoire, this report analyzes the main macroeconomic developments and structural policies of the country from 2013 until mid-2014. It also reflects on the underlying factors of the strong economic recovery in Côte d'Ivoire since the end of the post-election crisis, to assess the likelihood of sustained economic growth and significant poverty reduction in the country. Finally, the report analyzes the effects of declining oil prices and the appreciation of the dollar against the euro and the CFA franc on the Ivorian economy. This edition does not examine the impact of strong economic growth on the Ivoirian population's well-being indicators such as, poverty, employment and inequality. Within the scope of this report, the objective is to understand the factors contributing to the strong economic recovery in Côte d'Ivoire. This economic update is targeted toward a larger audience, in order to stimulate constructive debate on public policy in the country and between the country and its development partners.

By increasing access to finance for out-of-reach households and families, microfinance continues to be an essential tool for improving livelihoods at the base of the pyramid. The last 20 years have seen remarkable growth in the microfinance sector. From its early stages in small-scale microenterprise lending, through its commercial expansion to offer savings and a broad array of financial services to low-income customers, to its entry into new markets and incorporation of technological innovations, microfinance is ensuring that an ever-greater number of households have permanent access to a range of high-quality and affordable financial services. The microfinance industry is estimated at $60 to $100 billion globally, where several thousand microfinance organizations reach an estimated 200 million clients, most of whom were not previously served by the formal financial sector. However, 2.5 billion adults still lack access to formal financial services. Financial services for low-income people are an important factor when it comes to poverty reduction, as it enables them to build assets, increase incomes and reduce their vulnerability to economic stress. Moreover, microfinance continues to be an important tool when it comes to empowering women. IFC is the World Bank Group s main investor in microfinance, working with around 300 microfinance institutions (MFIs) and SME-focused financial institutions, which provide financial services in 91 countries. IFC is also one of the leading global investors in terms of volume. In fiscal year 2014, we committed $519 million in 43 projects with MFIs. Our cumulative investment portfolio in microfinance exceeded $3.5 billion, with outstanding commitments of $2.0 billion. In fiscal year 2014, IFC advisory services comprised $74.2 million, representing advisory assistance for 86 projects. This smart book, titled from small beginnings to great opportunities, presents practical lessons learned from the work that authors have been doing on microfinance projects over the last twenty years. From launching the Microfinance Enhancement Facility to help the industry stay afloat during the time of crisis, to working on a project to support microfinance clients to fulfill their housing dreams, these narratives are both engaging and insightful.

Over the past few years, Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) in Iraq have emerged as credible sources of financing for low-income households and entrepreneurs, both underserved by conventional banks. Microfinance services in Iraq, however, are still nascent and far from meeting their full potential. Similar to many countries in the MENA region, MFIs in Iraq were set up as non-governmental organizations (NGOs) supported by a steady influx of donor funding. While these NGOs were initially able to grow through donor support, they are now struggling to meet increasing client demand as donor resources have dwindled, preventing them from making the necessary investments in capital and infrastructure to meet growing client demand. Many countries address this funding challenge by allowing institutions to provide financial services as companies or banks, helping them raise capital, provide new services, and increase their outreach in a sustainable manner. A similar path could be envisioned in Iraq, but is currently obstructed by regulatory hurdles. This diagnostic report aims to present and assess the current microfinance landscape in Iraq, including the legal and regulatory framework, recommend policy improvements to enhance the sustainability and operating environment for MFIs and their clients. This report argues that the current legal and regulatory environment for microfinance in Iraq hinders the growth and sustainability of the sector and furthermore advocates several short and medium term policy recommendations to enhance the overall operating environment for MFIs, the sustainability of the sector, and impact for clients.