Mongolia's prospects in the medium term look excellent from a growth perspective as well as a fiscal management perspective. Staying the course in the medium term means implementing the landmark Fiscal Stability Law (FSL) passed last year, and adopting a supportive integrated budget law this spring session of parliament. The economy grew 6.1 percent year-on-year (yoy) in 2010, following a contraction of 1.3 percent in 2009. The last quarter of 2010 ended with a broad-based recovery, supported by transportation, construction and wholesale and retail trade. The latest survey conducted in informal labor markets in March 2011 revealed no changes in the total number of casual workers compared to December. Mongolia has promising growth prospects. It has the opportunity now to exercise prudent fiscal and macroeconomic policies so it can steer clear of the mistakes made by other resource rich economies and achieve its potential.
Mobile money (m-money) refers to the use of mobile phones to perform financial and banking functions. However, the technology is far ahead of the infrastructure of financial and technical network service providers needed for an m-money system to function. This study was undertaken to increase the understanding of m-money and to address key issues in scaling up development of m-money services globally. It examines the potential demand for m-money, national regulatory environments, major obstacles, and the requirements of potential service providers and networks to run m-money services as viable businesses. Four countries - Brazil, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, and Thailand - each of which represents a different world region, socioeconomic situation, and financial sector context, were included in the study. The countries were analyzed in terms of m-money business models, money flows and demand, potential user perceptions and behavior, regulations, and agent networks. In each country, an m-money service provider acted as a partner institution. To place these four countries in the wider context of m-money developments, three case studies - Japan, Kenya, and the United States were also examined. The size of potential opportunities for m-money were quantified through demand estimates and compared with estimates in the three reference countries. Chapter one provides an introduction to the study's objectives and context, and explains the definition and positioning of m-money used in this report. Chapter two presents case studies of the prominent m-money countries Kenya and Japan, as well as the United States. Chapter three presents an overview of the four country study findings and analysis. Chapter four describes the m-money business models adopted in each country and the challenges that each country faces. Chapter five concludes by placing each country along an m-money demand curve and explains the impact of this placement on the development of an opportunity for m-money.
Prospects for the global economy have become less certain in the second half of 2011, with significant increase in downside risks. Developing countries in East Asia are growing faster than developed countries, but they too are facing challenges due to a combination of reasons including: slower expansion in demand in developed countries; the impact of global uncertainty on investor sentiments; natural disasters; and the withdrawal of stimulus policies. Vietnam's growth slowed in 2011 compared to 2010, though it is still expected to reach around 5.8 percent. The external sector has remained relatively stable. The current account deficit declined in 2011, as export performance outpaced imports and remittances grew robustly. Both import and export values saw a dramatic rise, mostly because of higher commodities prices. External debt remains sustainable, as the current account deficit was more than covered through medium-term capital inflows that are largely non debt-creating (foreign direct investments) or contracted on concessional terms (official development aid). Foreign direct investment inflows continued at a steady pace, although new commitments declined. International reserves increased in the first half of the year while the Vietnamese dong benefitted from a period of relative calm. In the last quarter of the year, however, exchange rate fluctuations increased due to volatility in gold prices, deepening uncertainties and the seasonal increase in demand for foreign currency as the year end approaches. In the longer run, Vietnam's ambition to maintain high growth into the next decade will require as bold a set of reforms as the one adopted with Doi Moi. The challenge is arguably more difficult than the previous one, and few countries in the world have accomplished it. Vietnam is endowed with a young and hard-working labor force. This is a vital asset to meet the country's ambitious goals, if the country manages to equip itself with relevant skills, and match it with necessary capital. It also needs a level-playing field to maximize its potential. As people become more educated and production becomes more sophisticated, demands for predictability, trust and a level playing field will grow. Transparency is a critical element in this. Concentration of economic power in a small number of large firms undermines efforts at creating a level playing field. Large firms and industries that circumvent rules to their advantage are promoting corruption, and undermining efficiency, which damages the country's potential. The governance challenges are complex, but Vietnam's medium term outlook will be much better if they are addressed sooner rather than later.
China's 12th five-year plan (2011-2015) aims to promote inclusive, equitable growth and development by placing an increased emphasis on human development. Good health is an important component of human development, not only because it makes people's lives better, but also because having a healthy and long life enhances their ability to learn, acquire skills, and contributes to society. Indeed, good health is a fundamental right of every human being. Good health among a population can also enhance economic performance by improving labor productivity and reducing economic losses that arise from illnesses. The findings and recommendations can inform and promote a broad dialogue toward the development of a multisectoral response to effectively address the growing burden of Non Communicable Diseases (NCDs), including a better alignment of the health system with the population's health needs. The report also advocates implementing 'health in all' policies and actions for a multisectoral response to NCDs in China to help achieve the ultimate goal of 'harmonious' development and growth.
After a strong rebound in 2010, Philippine economic growth slowed by more than half to 3.6 percent in the first three quarters of 2011. Slower third quarter (Q3) growth of 3.2 percent was the result of significant contractions in exports and public investment. The contraction in exports largely reflected weaker demand in advanced economies while public investments continued to shrink in part because of measures to improve accountability of public spending. On the production side, industrial and agricultural activities were sluggish, leaving the services sector to buoy growth. To improve growth outcome in the remainder of the year, the government announced a PHP 72 billion (about 0.7 percent of GDP) disbursement acceleration plan to ensure that budgeted items are spent by year end. After a strong rebound in 2010, Philippine economic growth slowed by more than half to 3.6 percent in the first three quarters of 2011, bringing year to date growth below the government's revised target of 4.5 to 5.5 percent for 2011. Q3 growth of 3.2 percent was driven by private consumption and inventory build-up, which grew by 7.1 and 147.7 percent respectively. The country's slower expansion places it behind its neighbors with Indonesia, Vietnam, and Singapore growing above 6 percent, Malaysia at 5.8 percent, and Thailand, which was devastated by massive flooding in recent months, at 3.5 percent.
Against the backdrop of agreement that global coordinated action is needed to prevent dangerous climate change, individual countries are thinking through the implications of climate action for their economies and people. The rest of the report is organized along the following lines. The next section provides background on Poland's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Then section B sets out Poland's existing carbon abatement targets and key policy challenges related to GHG mitigation. The next section summarizes the innovative methodological approach used by the report. Section D discusses the methods and implications of constructing business-as-usual or reference scenarios. Section E provides the major findings from the first model, the engineering approach, on the costs of measures aimed at GHG mitigation for Poland. Section F explains how these findings are expanded and revised by incorporation into the first macroeconomic model. Section G provides an analysis of the economic impact through 2020 of mitigation measures within the constraints of European Union (EU) policy arrangements. Section H examines the energy sector and how Section E's findings are enhanced by optimization of the structure of the energy sector. Section I takes a first look at the challenges of energy efficiency. Section J provides additional analysis of the transport sector. The last section provides some notes on additional issues and further work.
Facility for Investment Climate Advisory Services (FIAS) ; Since investment climate reforms in developing countries started gaining traction in the 1990s, most efforts have focused on issues at the national level, achieving varying degrees of success for reasons that are relatively well understood. This handbook provides an overview of efforts and achievements in subnational investment climate reforms. It is organized as follows. Chapter 2 reviews a number of countries experiences with subnational reforms, noting both success stories and disappointments and pointing toward lessons learned. Chapter 3 sets out the basic principles of subnational revenue, including business taxation. Chapter 4 describes sound licensing practices for subnational governments, including establishing licensing fees. Chapter 5 provides recommendations for subnational reform projects where both the regulatory authority and taxation require attention, which is the most common situation. Finally, the Appendix offers nine case studies covering subnational reform efforts in the following countries: Canada (British Columbia), The Russian Federation, China, Kenya, Tanzania, Peru (Lima), The Balkans (Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina), Tajikistan, and Zambia.
Infrastructure has made a net contribution of around one percentage point to Nigeria's improved per capita growth performance in recent years, in spite of the fact that unreliable power supply held growth back. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries could boost annual growth by around four percentage points. Nigeria has made important strides toward improving much of its infrastructure. Compared to many African peers, Nigeria has relatively advanced power, road, rail, and information and communications technology (ICT) networks that cover extensive areas of the nation's territory. In recent years, Nigeria has conducted several important infrastructure sector reforms. The ports sector has been converted to a landlord model, and terminal concessions now attract private investment on a scale unprecedented for Africa. The power sector is undergoing a restructuring, paving the way for performance improvements; the sector is finally on a path toward raising tariffs to recover a larger share of costs. Bold liberalization measures in the ICT sector have resulted in widespread, low-cost mobile services, Africa's most vibrant fixed-line sector, and major private investments in the development of a national fiber-optic backbone. A burgeoning domestic air transport sector has emerged, with strong private carriers that have rapidly attained regional significance.
Despite general economic decline and power supply deficiencies, infrastructure made a modest net contribution of less than half a percentage point to Zimbabwe's improved per capita growth performance in recent years. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries could boost annual growth by about 2.4 percentage points. Zimbabwe made significant progress in infrastructure in its early period as an independent state. The country managed to put in place a national electricity network and establish regional interconnection in the power sector; to build an extensive network of roads for countrywide accessibility and integration into the regional transport corridors; to lay the water and sewerage system; and to make progress on building dams and tapping the significant irrigation potential. Unfortunately, at present the cross-cutting issue across all these sectors is Zimbabwe's inability to maintain and rehabilitate the existing infrastructure since the country became immersed in economic and political turmoil in the late 1990s. Neglect of all sectors due to the crisis has resulted in a generalized lack of new investment (in the power and water sectors in particular), and the accumulation of a huge rehabilitation agenda. Quality of service has declined across the board. The power system has become unjustifiably costly, inefficient, and unreliable. The condition of roads has deteriorated to the point that Zimbabwe became a bottleneck on the North-South transport corridor. Rural connectivity hardly exists. Failure to treat potable water, along with the deterioration of the water, sanitation, and garbage disposal systems, was responsible for the spread of cholera in 2008. By 2010 cholera affected most areas of the country and posed a health threat to neighboring countries. Looking ahead, Zimbabwe faces a number of important infrastructure challenges. Zimbabwe's most pressing challenges lie in the power and water sectors. Inefficient and unreliable power supply poses major risks to the economy, while the maintenance and upgrading of existing power infrastructure no longer looks to be affordable. At the same time, overhauling the water and sewerage system is imperative for curbing the public health crisis.
Infrastructure has contributed significantly to the growth of West African economies during the past decade. In Sierra Leone, infrastructure added only around 0.51 percentage points to the per capita growth rate over 2003-07. Similarly to other countries in the region and the rest of the continent, the boost to historic growth came predominately from the ICT (Information and Telecommunications Technology) revolution while power-sector deficiencies and poor roads held back growth. After nine years of peace, economic activity is flourishing at every level in Sierra Leone. Political stability, high government accountability, good governance standards, and streamlined tax reform helped Sierra Leone to become a bright success story, turning the country into the easiest and quickest place to start business in West Africa. Sierra Leone's image in the eyes of investors is strengthened as the country ranked as one of the top five countries in Africa for investor protection. Looking ahead, the country faces a number of critical infrastructure challenges. Perhaps the most daunting of these challenges lies in the power sector, the poor state of which retards development of other sectors. Access to power is very low, at around 1 to 5 percent in urban areas, and is nonexistent in the countryside. The country's installed power-generation capacity is around 13 megawatts per million people, which is lower than what other low-income and fragile states have installed. The entire existing power infrastructure is concentrated in the western part of the country, and even with the functioning of the Bumbuna power plant, only half the suppressed demand for Freetown, let alone that for the rest of the country, is being met. Regardless of recent reduction in tariffs, Sierra Leoneans still pay some of the highest tariffs in Africa. In 2010, Sierra Leoneans paid three times as much for power as did residents of African countries that relied on hydropower. Making investments in more cost-effective power generation options is therefore an important strategic objective for Sierra Leone, without which further electrification will simply be unaffordable for the wider population.
Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies have a clear potential for scaling up renewable energy at the utility level, thereby diversifying the generation portfolio mix, powering development, and mitigating climate change. A recent surge in demand for solar thermal power generation projects in several World Bank Group (WBG) partner countries shows that CST could indeed become an important renewable energy technology that would be able to provide an alternative to conventional thermal power generation based on the central utility model. At present, different CST technologies have reached varying degrees of commercial availability. This emerging nature of CST means that there are market and technical impediments to accelerating its acceptance, including cost competitiveness, an understanding of technology capability and limitations, intermittency, and benefits of electricity storage. Many developed and some developing countries are currently working to address these barriers in order to scale up CST-based power generation. Given the considerable growth of CST development in several WBG partner countries, there is a need to assess the recent experience of developed countries in designing and implementing regulatory frameworks and draw lesson that could facilitate the deployment of CST technologies in developing countries. Merely replicating developed countries' schemes in the context of a developing country may not generate the desired outcomes.
Weather is the term used to describe the atmospheric conditions (heat, wetness, wind, etc.) prevailing at any one place and time. Climate is the sum of the prevailing weather conditions of a given place over a period of time, typically summed over many decades. This paper seeks to provide strategic directions for mainstreaming support for climate change within the World Bank's broader program of assistance to Vietnam. It does so by reviewing the current understanding of climate change in Vietnam and likely impacts, outlining principles to guide the Bank's engagement in this field, and applying these principles across a range of sectors, taking into account both near- and longer-term considerations. The report identifies elements of the Bank's current and planned portfolio of projects and analytical work that are contributing or will contribute to improved knowledge, planning, and actions, and it points to additional areas where new or more work seems warranted. The report represents a first iteration of a strategy for supporting Vietnam in managing the challenges posed by climate change. As more experience is gathered and as our understanding of both the science and the economics of climate change impacts in Vietnam improves, this strategy will need to be revisited and refined. While the process of climate change is expected to be a long-term phenomenon-with predictions for considerable changes through the second half of the twenty-first century, the focus of this report is on decisions and priorities that should govern the Bank's assistance during this decade. Given an array of uncertainties, extending the developing assistance planning vision much beyond 2020 is not practical. This time frame also corresponds to the government of Vietnam's own planning horizon.
Russia has seen even higher oil windfall in the past few months, which translates into likely fiscal surpluses this year and next. The government should not miss the opportunity provided by a large oil windfall to substantially improve its long-term fiscal position, further reduce inflation, and, therefore, ensure a strong basis for durable stability and healthy growth in the future. Rising domestic demand and credit activity are increasingly supporting solid growth. Overall, labor market conditions improved recently while poverty was broadly flat during and after the crisis, but unemployment and poverty in many regions remain difficult. Further reductions in poverty will require greater policy focus and persistence in implementing more effective and targeted programs, especially in the poorest regions. Two new special-topic analyses focus on export diversification in Russia, and food and energy inflation in Europe and Central Asia region. In the first, results show that productivity is the key to exports and that lack of competition and entrepreneurial innovation are relevant obstacles to the emergence of new, potentially exportable products. In the second, it is shown that food and energy prices in Russia and other countries in Europe and Central Asia are contributing significantly to consumer price inflation, complicating anti-inflation policy and poverty reduction.
Financial service provision has expanded since the 2004 financial sector assessment program (FSAP) update, but access to financial services can expand greatly through mobile banking. An estimated 47 percent of adults in El Salvador have deposit accounts at a regulated financial institution, similar to the Latin American average. Although a range of range of bank and non-bank institutions serve the micro and Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) finance market, significant financial services provision is occurring outside of the regulatory perimeter. Improvements in credit information systems, simplification of credit documentation processes, and a strengthened legal framework for factoring can help facilitate SMEs access to credit. Issues of financial transparency and consumer protection are of increasing importance to the Salvadoran authorities, although resources for enforcement are limited. Both public and private entities are engaging in educational activities to promote financial literacy have the potential to play an important role in curbing over indebtedness. However, the consumer defense agency (Defensoria al Consumidor) lacks sufficient resources for enforcement of consumer protection laws. This paper is divided into following six parts: first part gives overview of financial access and usage patterns; the second part gives information on funding and savings products commercialized; the third part gives market participants; fourth part is legal and regulatory impediments to credit; fifth part deals with supervisory and regulatory perimeter issues; and sixth part is transparency, consumer protection, and financial literacy.
This report reviews the status of Maghreb countries' economic integration with the world, with the Arab world, and within the Maghreb itself. It focuses on trade in goods and services, labor and capital flows, financial integration and cross-border infrastructure integration. It discusses the potential benefits of and key constraints to greater integration. The focus on trade liberalization with the European Union (EU) provides an opportunity for individual Maghreb countries to lock in policies that would eventually help them harmonize policies within their own region. The same argument can be made regarding accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The Maghreb countries would reap significant additional benefits if, in parallel to reforms undertaken to improve trade liberalization with Europe, they improved conditions for streamlined trade among themselves. There is significant potential for trade in services in the financial sector, transportation and logistics, and communications and information, among other sectors. According to some studies, comprehensive services reforms that involve increased competition and regulatory streamlining would yield benefits that are at least twice the magnitude of those achieved through tariff removal alone.
