Rwanda's growth rates during the past few years exceeded the growth rates of developing countries, except for in 2013 when Rwanda's growth decelerated to 4.7 percent. Among the 181 economies where 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate data is available, Rwanda's growth rate of 7.0 percent is more than twice as high as the average of the 181 economies (3.2 percent), and is ranked 20th globally. Going forward, Rwanda's growth rates are projected to exceed global growth rates in 2015-2017. This edition focuses on jobs in particular the employment dynamics of the past decade.
How do global supply chain linkages modify countries' incentives to impose import protection? Are these linkages empirically important determinants of trade policy? To address these questions, this paper introduces supply chain linkages into a workhorse terms-of-trade model of trade policy with political economy. Theory predicts that discretionary final goods tariffs will be decreasing in the domestic content of foreign-produced final goods. Provided foreign political interests are not too strong, final goods tariffs will also be decreasing in the foreign content of domestically-produced final goods. The paper tests these predictions using newly assembled data on bilateral applied tariffs, temporary trade barriers, and value-added contents for 14 major economies over the 1995-2009 period. There is strong support for the empirical predictions of the model. The results imply that global supply chains matter for trade policy, both in principle and in practice.
Ethiopia is a highly decentralized country. Presently, sub-national government taxes and revenues account for about 28 percent of general taxes and revenues, and sub-national expenditures amount to 51 percent of general government expenditures. The ensuing vertical mismatch is bridged by grants from the Federal government to the regions. Presently, these grants account for 57 percent of sub-national expenditures1. For many years, these grants consisted mostly of a block grant (the Federal General Purpose Grant) given without any strings attached, which means the regions could use it as they wished. The rest of the report is organized as follows. Section two provides the policy context that is the information, data, evolutions, etc. specific to Ethiopia, which are necessary to understand and interpret the MDGs grant policy. Section three present and discusses the policy content that is the components of the policy previously identified. Section four is a policy assessment, which utilizes the evaluation framework proposed above to analyze the relationships between the various components of the policy, and discuss its efficiency, its effectiveness and its success. Section five is a conclusion that summarizes the analysis, and attempts, prudently and modestly, to outline some potential avenues for future action.
The major role tropical forests play in biodiversity and climate change has led the world to search for effective ways to slow down deforestation. Community forest management (CFM) is an example of the broader concept of community-based natural resources management (CBNRM). As part of the decentralization policy in many countries, mainly in Africa and Asia, CFM was expected to promote: (i) a more effective stewardship of the resources by involving the local communities in the management of the resources, and (ii) a more locally-driven development with them tapping most of the derived benefits. The precursors of CBNRM and CFM in Madagascar are the centrally-led compensation-based mechanisms to conservation. Madagascar is one of the first countries in the southern hemisphere to have put in place a legal framework for CBNRM and CFM. The CBNRM implementation process starts with the creation of a local natural resources management group. The government has identified the protection of natural capital and the harnessing of its value as a key pillar in its national development plan for 2015-2019. The plan identifies poor governance as a major constraint to achieving the country's development objectives. It puts strong emphasis on the roles of both natural capital and the necessity for a more inclusive economy to achieve sustainable development. This report will help the Bank take stock of the nearly two-decades of implementation of the national environmental action plan and provide nation-wide facts that will inform future investment in renewable natural resources management, biodiversity conservation and poverty reduction, and local development in the future. The present work is targeted to decision makers and stakeholders involved in CFM policy with the objective of taking stock of almost 20 years of implementation and advise on future directions in policy formulation. The report is organized as follows: section one presents community forest management (CFM) in Madagascar. Section two provides the result of an impact evaluation analysis conducted on the application of CFM policy. Section three provides an analysis of the legal and institutional aspects of the application of CFM policy in Madagascar. Section four presents recommendations for the short, medium, and longer term. Section five concludes.
Wage inequality decreased significantly in the Russian Federation over the 2000s. The economic expansion experienced throughout the decade led to an improvement in social indicators, with a large reduction in poverty rates and an increase in higher education. In this context, wage inequality showed a sharp decline, with the Gini index on labor income decreasing by 18 percent between 2002 and 2012. Using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, this paper documents the reduction in wage inequality and explores potential factors behind the trend. The analysis uses a decomposition technique proposed by Fortin, Lemieux, and Firpo (2011) to disentangle the main drivers behind changes in the wage distribution. The results suggest that wage structure effects are more important than composition effects for explaining changes in wage inequality. Institutional factors, such as minimum wage policies and changes in the returns to employment in different sectors and types of firms as well as the reduction of the skill premium, emerge as the most relevant factors for explaining changes in the wage structure.
This paper uses a combination of survey questions to instructors and data collected from course syllabi and examinations to examine how the subject of development economics is taught at the undergraduate and masters levels in developing countries, and benchmark this against undergraduate classes in the United States. The study finds that there is considerable heterogeneity in what is considered development economics: there is a narrow core of only a small set of topics such as growth theory, poverty and inequality, human capital, and institutions taught in at least half the classes, with substantial variation in other topics covered. In developing countries, development economics is taught largely as a theoretical subject coupled with case studies, with few courses emphasizing data or empirical methods and findings. This approach contrasts with the approach taken in leading U.S. economics departments and with the evolution of development economics research. The analysis finds that country income per capita, the role of the state in the economy, the education level in the country, and the involvement of the instructor in research are associated with how close a course is to the frontier. The results suggest there are important gaps in how development economics is taught.
The lessons learned from the implications of the global crisis for the Armenian economy led the Government of Armenia to refine its approach to economic development policy. The business environment, the market structure, and the incentive pattern had not fostered reallocation of resources into more productive areas or the emergence of internationally competitive products and services. Despite numerous initiatives and multiple efforts, there was no holistic approach or actionable roadmap for supporting private sector development. The pressing need to restore economic growth despite a small domestic market led the Armenian government to search for new sources of growth in export-oriented industries. At the end of 2011, the Government of Armenia adopted its export-led industrial development strategy. The strategy set as targets improving the general business environment and sector-specific initiatives to address market failures and expand exports. The strategy builds on both a general (crosscutting) and an industry-customized toolset.
Horizontal inequalities (HIs) within a country, or inequalities among groups, have been shown to be an important source of violent conflict. Relevant group categorizations include religion, ethnicity, and region. HIs can also be measured in different ways. Ethnicity, language, religion, race, and region are examples of potentially relevant and salient group categorizations. In this paper the authors will review the prevailing HIs and their management in four West African countries - Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, and Nigeria. The report provides some basic facts about these four countries, which vary greatly in area, per capita income, poverty, child mortality rates, and other features. In terms of ethnoreligious demography, it is important to note that all four countries have a highly diverse ethnic population, and three of the four (Ghana, Nigeria, and Cote d'Ivoire) have substantial Christian and Muslim populations. Each of the case study countries has had a relatively turbulent and complex political history in recent decades. The four case study countries present instructive examples of the possible (mis)management of HIs. In this paper the authors analyze the evolution and management of the prevailing HIs in each of the four cases. Section one gives introduction. Section two presents evidence on the evolution and current state of HIs in each country. Section three analyzes the main causes of the prevailing HIs, while section four focuses on the governments' attitudes, policies, and measures toward HIs. Section five discusses the links between the HIs observed and the political outcomes. Section six draws some conclusions and makes policy recommendations for improved management of HIs in multiethnic developing countries generally, and specifically in four case study countries.
South Sudan is a fragile country beset by conflicts. The oil shutdown accompanied by a border closure in 2012 was resolved, but ongoing military clashes between factions of the ruling party have affected livelihoods since December 2013. Before the onset of these conflicts, large parts of the population were food insecure (2 out of 3 people) and lived in poverty (1 out of 2 people). This note estimates and juxtaposes the impact of the oil shutdown and the ongoing military conflict on livelihoods based on food price changes, predicted harvest losses and displacement. The resulting poverty estimates help to understand the structural implications of these conflicts. But to validate these numbers, test the underlying modeling assumptions and inform a policy response, new data needs to be collected urgently.
There is a growing consensus that what you export matters for growth (see for instance, Haussman and al. 2007 and Krishna and Maloney (2011)). This paper examines whether and to what extent Jordan and Tunisia, the two most globally integrated countries of the Middle East and North Africa region, are moving up the technological ladder. To that effect, we use two highly disaggregated panel export database (products captured at the 11-digit level) and a 'product-based' methodology that allows a mapping of products classified by technological content and their sector of origin. We find that Jordan and Tunisia have experienced contrasting dynamics over the last decade. Thanks to its large exports of pharmaceutical products, Jordan enjoys a much higher share of high tech products in its export basket (11.5 percent versus 5.4 percent respectively) but this share has been declining over time due to the rapid rise of exports of textiles products. In contrast, from a very low basis, Tunisia has been catching up thanks to a slow but steady rise in medium-high tech products (electronics and mechanical components) and a corresponding decline in the preeminence of exports of textile products. Interestingly, success stories identified in both countries are all associated with the establishment of an 'enclave' where transparent 'rules of the game' are credibly enforced with the help of an external policy anchor either through international agreements (e.g. Jordan's free trade agreement with the US and the signature of and compliance with WTO's Intellectual Property Rights) or the establishment of a 'special zone/regime' such as Tunisia's 'offshore' regime and Jordan's Qualifying Industrial Zone. This finding underscores the importance of overcoming institutional weaknesses and establishing transparent and rules-based Government-business relationships as a pre-requisite for successful global integration in developing countries countries.
Tanzania's land, local government and forest laws mean that rural communities have well defined rights to own, manage and benefit from forest and woodland resources within their local areas through the establishment of village forests. This approach, known by practitioners as Community Based Forest Management (CBFM) results in the legal establishment of village land forest reserves, community forest reserves or private forests. By 2008, 1,460 villages on mainland Tanzania1 were involved in establishing or managing village forests covering a total of over 2.345 million hectares. A further 863 villages are currently involved in Joint Forest Management (JFM) approaches within government forest reserves, in which management responsibilities are shared between government and local communities. 1.78 million hectares of forest reserve under central or local government jurisdiction are now under JFM arrangements. Since 2008, the Tanzanian government has been making preparations for the establishment of systems and structures for REDD Plus (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation). Tanzania is being supported in its preparations by the World Bank's Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF), UN-REDD plus and the Norwegian Forests and Climate Initiative as well as a number of local and international Non Government Organizations (NGOs). This report has been prepared to provide inputs to the development of policy processes currently evolving in Tanzania regarding REDD plus. This review draws on almost two decades of experience within Tanzania on the development and establishment of Participatory forest management (PFM) an approach which (like REDD plus), aims to achieve the combined objectives of sustainable forest management with secure rights, improved local forest governance and secure livelihoods for forest-dependent communities.
The Costing Adaptation through Local Institutions (CALI) study aims to highlight how adaptation by households to climate change and climate variability is shaped by institutions, and how governments, through local institutions, can support adaptation that addresses the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable households. The main objective of the study is to provide recommendations regarding adaptation options for households in rural regions and facilitate the necessary institutional support. The methodology of the study draws on past adaptation experiences, particularly for vulnerable groups in different fragile ecological contexts. It uses participatory approaches to assess the costs of different adaptation strategies used by such groups. In this synthesis report, the analytical results from the three country case studies are presented and compared. Among the adopted strategies in the three cases, some were similar, while others were country-specific. The report describes some of the institutional, socioeconomic, and political differences that contributed to the individual or communal adaptation strategies among the countries. These country comparisons make it possible to present a number of policy recommendations that provide a better insight on how future interventions might be more effectively targeted. The results of this study confirm the view that it is important to place greater emphasis on integrated approaches to development. A focus on only a single issue will most likely not have the envisaged results and will in the end lead to higher costs. Several constraints ranging from constraints on a household, village, regional, or national level prevent households from successfully improving their livelihoods and preparing adequately for changing climate variability.
Treatment of unfair trade laws has become an important topic in negotiations on preferential trading areas. Recent preferential trading areas involving the United States (U.S.), one of the most significant users of these laws, have established special bi-national dispute settlement panels to arbitrate disagreements. Using a panel database of U.S. antidumping and countervailing duty activity from 1980 through 2000, the article examines whether the use of dispute settlement panels has reduced such activity between the United States and its North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partners. The analysis finds little evidence for any effect, calling into question the effectiveness of dispute settlement panels in reducing unfair trade law activity.
This article is concerned with the interaction of regulated efficiency and World Trade Organization (WTO) accession and its impact on China's motor vehicle sector. The analysis is conducted using a 23 sector-25 region computable general equilibrium model. Regulatory reform and internal restructuring are found to be critical. Restructuring is represented by a cost reduction following from consolidation and rationalization that moves costs toward global norms. Without restructuring, WTO accession means a surge of final imports, though imports of parts could well fall as production moves offshore. However, with restructuring, the final assembly industry can be made competitive by world standards, with a strengthened position for the industry.
