Eine nachhaltige Entwicklung bedeutet eine dauerhaft mögliche Entwicklung innerhalb des ökologischen Erdsystems. Durch das weltweite Bevölkerungswachstum, den ansteigenden Wohlstand und nicht-nachhaltige Lebensweisen drohen die ökologischen Belastungsgrenzen unsere Erde jedoch überschritten zu werden bzw. wurden teilweise bereits überschritten. Dies hat zur Folge, dass nachfolgende wie auch parallel existierende Generationen nicht die gleichen Möglichkeiten zur Erfüllung ihrer Bedürfnisse haben, wie die heute in den Industriestaaten lebenden. Die landwirtschaftliche Erzeugung trägt dabei einen bedeutenden Teil zu dieser Bedrohung und Überschreitung der planetaren Grenzen bei, denn insbesondere der hohe und weiter ansteigende Konsum von tierischen Produkten weltweit hat zahlreiche ökologisch, jedoch auch sozial und gesundheitlich nachteilige Folgen. Einer der grundlegenden problematischen Aspekte tierischer Produkte ist der hohe Energieverlust im Laufe des Veredlungsprozesses von pflanzlichen Futtermitteln zu Fleisch- und Milchprodukten. Die Folge sind große intensiv genutzte Landwirtschaftsflächen, die notwendig sind, um jene Futtermittel zu produzieren. Dies führt zu Biodiversitätsverlusten, Treibhausgasemissionen, Landraub und gesundheitlichen Problemen aufgrund des Pestizidgebrauchs. Weitere Konsequenzen eines hohen Konsums tierischer Produkte umfassen einen hohen Wasserbedarf, Flächenkonkurrenzen zwischen dem direkten Lebensmittel- und dem Futtermittelanbau, aber auch den ethisch bedenklichen Umgang mit Tieren sowie Gefahren für die menschliche Gesundheit, z. B. koronare Herzerkrankungen und Antibiotikaresistenzen. Begründet liegt dieser hohe und weiter wachsende Konsum tierischer Produkte in persönlichen, sozialen, ökonomischen und politischen sowie strukturellen Faktoren, wobei in vorliegender Arbeit auf den durch die westeuropäische Kultur geprägten Menschen fokussiert wird. Persönliche und soziale Hindernisse für einen reduzierten Konsum tierischer Lebensmittel liegen insbesondere in einem fehlenden Wissen, dem psychologischen Phänomen der kognitiven Dissonanz, mangelnder Achtsamkeit sowie dem Druck sozialer Normen. Wirtschaftspolitische und strukturelle Hindernisse umfassen eine wachstumsorientierte Ökonomie, fehlende Preisanreize für einen nachhaltigen Konsum sowie eine Infrastruktur, die den Konsum tierischer Produkte begünstigt. Nichtregierungsorganisationen (NRO) als Teil des sog. Dritten Sektors, neben der Wirtschaft und der Politik, und als Vertreterinnen der Gesellschaft sind essentielle Akteurinnen in nationalen und internationalen Gestaltungsprozessen. Sie werden zumeist von der Gesellschaft oder zumindest Teilen der Gesellschaft unterstützt und können durch Öffentlichkeitsarbeit und andere Maßnahmen auf politische und ökonomische Protagonisten Druck ausüben. Somit sind NRO als potentielle Schnittstelle zwischen Gesellschaft, Politik und Wirtschaft vielversprechende Einrichtungen um den Konsum tierischer Produkte zu senken. Aufgrund der o. g. multidimensionalen Auswirkungen des hohen Konsums tierischer Produkte, haben insbesondere NRO, die die Ziele Umweltschutz, Ernährungssicherung, Tierschutz und Gesundheitsförderung verfolgen, potentiell Interesse an einer Reduktion des Fleisch-, Milch- und Eikonsums. Studien über NRO in Schweden, Kanada und den USA weisen jedoch darauf hin, dass Umweltorganisationen sich in ihrer Arbeit für eine Begrenzung des Klimawandels nur in begrenztem Umfang für eine pflanzenbetonte Ernährungsweise einsetzen. Aufgrund der o. g. mehrdimensionalen Folgen eines hohen Konsums tierischer Lebensmittel weitet vorliegende Arbeit den Erhebungsumfang aus und umfasst die Untersuchung von deutschen Umwelt-, Welternährungs-, Gesundheits- und Tierschutzorganisationen in Hinblick auf deren Einsatz für eine Reduktion des Fleisch-, Milch- und Eikonsums. Die Erhebung umfasst die Untersuchung von 34 der wichtigsten deutschen NRO mittels Material- und Internetseitenanalyse, vertiefende leitfadengestützte Expert*inneninterviews mit 24 NRO sowie eine Fokusgruppendiskussion zur Ergebniskontrolle, wobei das zentrale Element dabei die Expert*inneninterviews darstellen. Insgesamt entspricht der Forschungsprozess der Grounded Theory Methodologie (GTM), einem ergebnisoffenen, induktiven Vorgehen. Die Forschungsfragen umfassen neben der Analyse des aktuellen Umfangs des Einsatzes für eine pflanzenbetonte Ernährungsweise insbesondere die Einflussfaktoren auf diesen Umfang sowie die umgesetzten Handlungsstrategien für eine Reduktion des Konsums tierischer Lebensmittel. Entsprechend der GTM steht am Ende des Forschungsprozesses vorliegender Arbeit ein Modell, das die Erkenntnisse in einer verdichteten Kernkategorie zusammenfasst. Als zentrales Ergebnis der Erhebung kann das 'Modell der abwägenden Bestandssicherung' gesehen werden. Es weist, in Übereinstimmung mit der Literatur, darauf hin, dass NRO als Teil der Gesellschaft von der Außenwelt abhängig sind, d. h. von ihren Mitgliedern und staatlichen wie privaten Geldgeber*innen, aber auch von parallel agierenden NRO, Medien und gesellschaftlichen Entwicklungen. Dies kann unter der Überschrift der 'Einstellung relevanter Interessensgruppen' zur Thematik der tierischen Lebensmittel gefasst werden. Auf der anderen Seite steht die 'Einstellung der Mitarbeitenden' einer NRO, da die Themenaufnahme der Problematik eines hohen Fleisch-, Milch- und Eikonsums auch davon abhängt, welche Bedeutung die Mitarbeitenden dieser Thematik zusprechen und inwiefern sie bereit sind sie in das Maßnahmenportfolio aufzunehmen. Wenn sowohl die Interessensgruppen als auch die Mitarbeitenden einer NRO der Themenaufnahme befürwortend gegenüber gestellt sind, so ist ein umfassender Einsatz für eine Reduktion des Konsums tierischer Lebensmittel von dieser NRO zu erwarten. Dies trifft in vorliegender Erhebung vorwiegend auf Tierschutzorganisationen und einige Umweltorganisationen zu. Der gegenteilige Fall einer fehlenden Thematisierung tierischer Produkte tritt ein, wenn weder relevante Interessensgruppen, noch die Mitarbeitenden einer NRO die Themenaufnahme befürworten oder als dringlich erachten. Dies kann insbesondere bei Welternährungs- und Gesundheitsorganisationen beobachtet werden. Wenn die Mitarbeitenden einer NRO die Thematisierung der Problematik tierischer Lebensmittel befürworten, die relevanten Interessensgruppen jedoch ablehnend gegenüber derartigen Maßnahmen stehen, ist eine zurückhaltende Thematisierung zu erwarten, die sich auf Informationstexte bspw. auf den Internetseitenauftritten der NRO beschränkt. Dies ist v. a. bei Umwelt- und Welternährungsorganisationen erkennbar. Der vierte Fall, dass die Interessensgruppen einer NRO für eine Reduktion des Konsums tierischer Produkte eintreten würden, nicht jedoch die Mitarbeitenden der NRO, konnte in vorliegender Erhebung nur in Ansätzen bei Umweltorganisationen beobachtet werden. Der Hauptgrund, warum NRO, insbesondere Welternährungs- und Gesundheitsorganisationen, die Problematik des hohen Konsums tierischer Produkte nicht oder nur in geringem Umfang aufnehmen, liegt in der o. g. Abhängigkeit der NRO von öffentlichen Geldgeber*innen, wie auch von privaten Spender*innen und Mitgliedern ('Einstellung relevanter Interessensgruppen'). Weitere Faktoren umfassen bspw. die Arbeitsteilung wie auch den Wettbewerb zwischen NRO, insofern dass auf andere NRO verwiesen wird und Nischen für eigene Themen gesucht werden. Neben den Gründen für den Umfang der Thematisierung des hohen Konsums tierischer Lebensmittel wurden auch Strategien erfragt, die die NRO anwenden um denselben zu senken. Hierbei wurde insbesondere die Öffentlichkeitsarbeit in verschiedenen Ausrichtungen genannt und als sehr wirksam eingeschätzt. Vor allem emotional ausgerichtete, positiv formulierte, zielgruppenspezifische und anschaulich dargestellte Kampagnen können als effektiv eingeschätzt werden. Auch politische oder juristische Maßnahmen, wie Lobbyismus oder Verbandsklagen werden von den NRO durchgeführt, wobei die befragten NRO auf der bundespolitischen Ebene derzeit kaum Potential sehen Änderungen herbeizuführen; auf Regionen- oder Länderebene jedoch realistischere Einflussmöglichkeiten sehen. Als nächste Schritte für NRO im Sinne einer (verstärkten) Thematisierung der Problematik tierischer Lebensmittel können folgende Maßnahmen geraten werden: • Eine Erhebung der Meinung von Mitgliedern und Spender*innen zu der o. g. Themenaufnahme in das Maßnahmenportfolio der jeweiligen NRO. Dies ist insbesondere bei NRO sinnvoll, die unsicher über die Reaktion ihrer Mitglieder und Spender*innen auf einen Einsatz für eine Reduktion des Konsums tierischer Produkte sind. • Eine Prüfung von alternativen Finanzierungsmöglichkeiten, die eine Abhängigkeit von staatlichen Geldern verringern. Hierdurch würde der Bedeutung von NRO als Teil des Dritten Sektors neben Politik und Wirtschaft gerecht und die Einflussmöglichkeiten auf dieselben erhöht. • Eine vermehrte Kooperation zwischen NRO innerhalb einer Disziplin und zwischen Disziplinen, sodass bspw. im Rahmen eines Netzwerkes aufeinander verwiesen werden kann. Dies ermöglicht die Einhaltung der jeweiligen Organisationsphilosophien und Kernkompetenzen trotz Zusammenarbeit mit NRO, die andere Herangehensweisen an die Förderung einer pflanzenbetonten Ernährungsweise verfolgen. Zudem ermöglicht diese Netzwerkbildung eine erhöhte Wettbewerbsfähigkeit mit dem ökonomischen und politischen Sektor. • Die Anerkennung der Handlungsfähigkeit von NRO als Pionierinnen des Wandels. Als Dritter Sektor neben der Politik und Wirtschaft kommt NRO eine große Bedeutung in der Beeinflussung gesellschaftlicher Prozesse, insbesondere auf zwischenstaatlicher Ebene zu. Auch komplexe Themen und, angesichts der Überschreitung der planetaren Grenzen, dringliche weltumfassende Themen können von kleinen, regionalen NRO aufgegriffen werden. • Die Fortführung von bewährten Maßnahmen zur Reduktion des Konsums tierischer Produkte, wie verschiedene Formen der Öffentlichkeitsarbeit, kann als sinnvoll erachtet werden. Hinzu können neue Inhalte genommen werden, wie bspw. die Förderung eines achtsamen Konsumstils durch naturnahe Lernorte. Für eine Umsetzung wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnisse zu Verhaltensänderungen hinsichtlich nachhaltiger Konsumstile ist eine verstärkte Zusammenarbeit mit Forschungseinrichtungen sinnvoll. Diese Erkenntnisse hinsichtlich der Gründe für eine Thematisierung der Problematik tierischer Produkte durch NRO lassen sich evtl. auch auf andere Themen übertragen, die von NRO aufgegriffen werden können, wie bspw. die Kritik an Flugreisen. Zudem ist es denkbar, dass die auf Deutschland beschränkte Analyse auch auf weitere, insbesondere westlich geprägte Länder übertragen werden kann. ; Sustainable development facilitates a permanently pursuable development which is within the ecological earth system. Through the worldwide population growth, the increasing wealth and unsustainable lifestyles the ecological limits are about to be or are already exceeded, so that future generations as well as parallel living generations haven't got the same possibilities to meet their needs as those living in current developed nations. Agricultural production contributes a high share to this threat to and exceedance of planetary boundaries, as in particular the high and further increasing consumption of animal source products has numerous ecological but also social and health consequences. One of the basic problematic aspects of animal source products is the high energy loss during the processing from plant animal feed to meat and dairy products. As a result large intensively used agricultural areas are necessary to feed animals leading to biodiversity loss, greenhouse gas emissions, land grabbing and health problems due to pesticide usage. Furthermore, high water usage, competition between food and fodder, as well as inhumane treatment of animals, and threats to human health by e.g. coronary heart diseases and antibiotic resistance are consequences of a meat-rich diet. Reasons for this high and increasing animal product consumption include personal, social, economic and political as well as structural factors, whereby in the thesis at hand the focus lies on people which are shaped by a Western European culture. Personal and social barriers to a reduced consumption of animal source food mainly include a lack of knowledge, the psychological phenomenon of cognitive dissonance, a lack of consciousness as well as the pressure of social norms. Political and economic barriers comprise the growth-oriented economy, a lack of price incentives for a sustainable consumption as well as an infrastructure which facilitates the consumption of animal source products. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) as part of the so called Third Sector, besides politics and economy, and representatives of the society are a vital player in national and international governance. They are mostly supported by the society or at least by parts of it and can put pressure on political and economical protagonists through public relations activities and other means. Thus, NGOs as potential interface between society, politics and economy are one promising player for reducing animal product consumption. Due to the above named multidimensional consequences of a high consumption of animal source products especially NGOs targeting to protect the environment, improve the world nutrition situation, care for animal ethics and enhance the health status are potentially interested to reduce the consumption of meat, dairy and eggs. However, according to previous studies in Sweden, Canada and the U.S., there is a limited degree of engagement in encouraging reduced meat consumption of environmental NGOs in light of climate change. Due to the multidimensional consequences of animal source products in the thesis at hand the coverage of analysis is extended and includes the investigation of German environmental, food security, health and animal welfare organizations regarding their commitment to a reduced consumption of animal products. Research consists of a material analysis of 34 NGOs, 24 expert interviews with NGO staff and a focus group discussion testing the preliminary results of the interviews, whereby the central element is the expert interviews. Overall the research process complies with the Grounded Theory Methodology (GTM), which is an inductive procedure without fixed expectations regarding the results. In particular, the research questions include, besides the analysis of the current scope of the commitment to a plant-based nutrition, the influencing factors on this scope as well as the kind of strategies of action for a reduced consumption of animal source products. In accordance to the GTM a new model has been developed as final result of the research process which summarizes the findings in a compact core category. As central result of the research the 'model of the weighing of existence-securing' can be presented. In compliance with previous literature it indicates that NGOs as part of the society are dependent on their environment, i. e. on their members as well as public and private funders, but also on parallel existing NGOs, the media and societal developments. This can be summarized under the headline 'attitude of relevant stakeholders' to the theme of animal source products. On the other side, the 'attitude of the staff' of a NGO can be named as influencing factor, as the thematisation of the problematic of the high animal product consumption is also dependent on the importance which is awarded to this topic by the staff members and in how far they are ready to include the topic in their portfolio of action. In case of the support of the topic by both the stakeholders and the staff members of a NGO, a comprehensive thematisation of the problematic of animal source products can be expected from the respective NGO. In the investigation at hand, this is mainly true for animal welfare and environmental organisations. The contradictory case of no thematisation occurs if neither relevant stakeholders nor the staff members of a NGO support the urgency and thematisation of the reduced animal product consumption. This case can be observed mainly for food security and health organisations. If staff members of a NGO are in favour of the thematisation of the problematic of animal source products, but the stakeholders reject such measures, a restrained thematisation can be expected, which is limited to information texts e. g. on the website of the respective NGO. This is mainly for some environmental and food security organization observable. The fourth case, in which stakeholders are in favour of the thematisation, but staff members aren't, is merely true for some environmental organisation in the analysis at hand. The main reason for a restrained plaid for a reduced consumption of animal source products, mainly by food security and environmental organisations, can be detected in the dependence on financial means from the government, donors and members ('attitude of relevant stakeholders'). But there are also factors like the division of responsibility and the competition between NGOs which impede an engagement in reducing animal product consumption, as NGOs refer to other NGOs or are search for own thematic niches. Besides the reasons for the scope of animal product thematisation by NGOs, strategies of the NGOs advocating a reduced animal product consumption has been analysed. These strategies include mainly public relations work in different variants, which is estimated by the NGOs to be highly effective. In particular emotionally created, positively formulated, target group specific and vividly presented campaigns can be rated as effective. In addition political and legal measures like lobbying or representative actions are named by the interviewed NGOs, whereby they don't see any potential for change on the federal level but on regional or provincial level. As next steps for NGOs according to the reduction of the consumption of animal source products, the following measures can be advised: • A survey about the opinions of the members and donators about the inclusion of the above named topic into to portfolio of measures. Particularly this is relevant for NGOs which are not sure about the reaction of their members and donators to their commitment to a reduced consumption of animal product consumption. An analysis of alternative possibilities of the origin of financial means, which minimize the dependence on public funds. Through this change of the origin of financial means NGOs would satisfy their meaning as part of the Third Sector besides politics and the economy and would increase their possibilities of influencing them. • An increased cooperation between NGOs of the same discipline as well as between different disciplines, so that they can e.g. refer to each other within a network. This enables NGOs to follow their respective organisational philosophy and core competences while at the same time allows cooperating with NGOs following a different approach to foster a plant-based way of nutrition. In addition, this creation of networks facilitates an increased competitiveness with the economic and political sector. • The acknowledgement of NGOs possibilities for action as agents of change. As part of the Third Sector besides politics and the economy, NGOs have a high importance in the influencing of social developments, especially on the interstate level. Complex topics as well as – due to the exceedance of planetary boundaries – urgent global topics can be thematised both by small, regional and large, international NGOs. • The continuation of proven measures aiming to reduce the consumption of animal source products, like different kinds of public relations work, is reasonable. In addition, new contents can be included, like e. g. the fostering of a conscious style of consumption through learning facilities close to nature. For an implementation of scientific findings about behaviour change regarding sustainable styles of consumption an improved cooperation of NGOs and research institutions is recommendable. These findings regarding the reasons for the thematisation of the problematic of animal source products through NGOs might be able to be transferred to other topics, which are thematised by NGOs, like e. g. the criticism on air travels. Furthermore, it is conceivable to transfer the findings about German NGOs to other countries, especially Western characterised countries.
[EN] The center of the Milky Way is the only galactic nucleus and the most extreme astrophysical environment that we can examine on scales of milli- parsecs. It contains the nearest example of a nuclear star cluster (NSC). NSCs have been found at the photometric and dynamical centers of the majority of galaxies in the local Universe. With e↵ective radii of a few parsecs and masses ranging between a few times 106–108 M!, they are among the densest known stellar structures. NSCs possess complex stellar populations and show clear signs of recurrent star formation, with the most recent event having occurred less than 100Myr ago in many of them. Moreover, NSCs can coexist with massive black holes (MBHs) at their centers. The Milky Way's nuclear star cluster (MWNSC) is located at a mere 8 kpc from Earth. While we can only study the integrated light in extragalactic NSCs, we can in the case of the Galactic center (GC) resolve physical scales on the order of a few milliparsecs (mpc) and thus study the properties, kinematics and even dynamics of individual stars. We possess unambiguous evidence for the existence of a 4 ⇥ 106 M! central black hole at the center of the MWNSC, thus making it an ideal target to study the interaction between a dense stellar cluster and a massive black hole. Due to the unique observational challenges – extreme crowding and extinction – the study of the NSC at the GC is confronted with unique difficulties. ; The high extinction limits imaging studies of the stars to the near-infrared (NIR). While this allows us, on the one hand, to use techniques like adaptive optics (AO) to obtain high angular resolution images from the ground, it poses, on the other hand, serious problems for stellar classification because the intrinsic colours of stars are small in the NIR. Because of the observational difficulties, our knowledge about the NSC still contains significant gaps, despite of several decades of observations. Existing work is a↵ected by either one or both of the following problems: (a) Low angular resolution, thus limiting it to the study of the brightest stars that represent less than one percent of the total population of the NSC; (b) limited spectral coverage, thus limiting their use for distinguishing between di↵erent types of stars. Spectroscopic studies with high angular resolution are necessarily limited to small numbers of stars or very small fields. They are therefore mostly limited to the central parsec. This thesis aims at providing answers to unresolved questions in our understanding of the GC, as well as provide new constraints on the structure of the MWNSC by using high resolution images and by improving the analysis. I examine images in a broad span of distances from the center of the Galaxy: from very large distances (⇠ 860 pc x 280 pc) to the innermost arcseconds where the supermassive black hole inhabits. Firstly, I aim to study the size and spatial structure of the MWNSC. I use data and methods that address potential shortcomings in previous work on the topic. I use 0.200 angular resolution Ks data to create a stellar density map in the central 86.4pc x 21 pc at the GC. I include data from selected AO assisted images obtained for the inner parsecs. In addition, I use IRAC/Spitzer MIR images. I model the Galactic bulge and the nuclear stellar disk in order to subtract them from the MWNSC. Finally, I fit a S´ersic model to the MWNSC and investigate its symmetry. I find that the MWNSC is flattened with an axis ratio of q = 0.71 ± 0.06, an e↵ective radius of Re = (5.1 ± 0.6) pc, and a S´ersic index of n = 2.2 ± 0.4. Its major axis may be tilted out of the Galactic plane by up to −10 degree. The distribution of the giants brighter than the Red Clump (RC) is found to be significantly flatter than the distribution of the faint stars. The MWNSC shares its main properties with other extragalactic NSCs found in spiral galaxies. The di↵erences in the structure between bright giants and RC stars might be related to the existence of not completely mixed populations of di↵erent ages. This may hint at recent growth of the MWNSC through star formation or cluster accretion. ; I also revisit the problem of inferring the innermost structure of the MWNSC, to clarify whether it displays a core or a cusp around the central black hole. The existence of dynamically relaxed stellar density cusp in dense clusters around massive black holes is a long-standing prediction of stellar dynamics, but it has so far escaped unambiguous observational confirmation. In order to study the distribution of stars around Sgr A*, I use data obtained with the NACO instrument at the ESO/Very Large Telescope (VLT) and I focus on two di↵erent methods to analyze three di↵erent stellar brightness ranges. I find that a Nuker law provides an adequate description of the nuclear cluster's intrinsic shape (assuming spherical symmetry). I find that the stellar density decreases with a 3D power-law index inside the range ! = 1.1 − 1.4 for distances smaller than the influence radius of Sgr A* (⇠ 3 pc). We can rule out a flat core with high confidence. The cusp is shallower than the predicted one by theory, but it can be explained if the star formation history of the NSC is taken into acount (Baumgardt et al., 2018). Finally, I peek at the very center of the Galaxy by improving the reduction and analysis of existing data. I use holographic technique and bootstrapping analysis. This has led to the detection of NIR emission of Sgr A* in epochs prior to 2003, when the first measurements were taken due to the development of AO. That allows Chen et al. (in preparation) to study the long-term NIR activity and explore the accretion flow onto the black hole in epochs where it had not been detected so far. ; [ES]El centro de la V´ıa L´actea es el ´unico n´ucleo gal´actico y el entorno astrof´ısico m´as extremo que podemos examinar en escalas de milli-parsecs. Contiene el ejemplo m´as cercano de un c´umulo estelar nuclear (o NSC, del ingl´es nuclear star cluster). Los NSCs han sido encontrados en los centros fotom´etricos y din´amicos de la mayor´ıa de las galaxias en el Universo local. Con radios efectivos de unos pocos parsecs y masas que van entre unas pocas veces 106–108 M!, se encuentran entre las estructuras estelares m´as densas conocidas. Adem´as, los NSCs pueden coexistir con agujeros negros masivos (o MBHs, del ingl´es massive black holes) en sus centros. El c´umulo estelar nuclear de la V´ıa L´actea (o MWNSC, del ingl´es Milky Way's NSC) est´a situado a tan s´olo 8 kpc de la Tierra. Mientras que podemos estudiar ´unicamente la luz integrada en NSCs extragal´acticos, en el caso del centro gal´actico (o GC, del ingl´es Galactic center) podemos resolver escalas f´ısicas del orden de unos pocos milli-parsecs (mpc) y, por lo tanto, estudiar las propiedades, cinem´atica, e incluso la din´amica de estrellas individuales. Contamos con evidencia inequ´ıvoca de la existencia de un agujero negro de masa 4⇥106 M! en el centro del MWNSC, convirti´endolo as´ı en un objetivo ideal donde estudiar la interacci´on entre un c´umulo estelar nuclear y un agujero negro masivo. Debido a sus desaf´ıos observacionales ´unicos - extremo hacinamiento y extinci´on - el estudio del NSC en el GC se enfrenta a dificultades ´unicas. La alta extinci´on limita los estudios de im´agenes de las estrellas al infrarrojo (o NIR, del ingl´es near-infrared). Mientras que esto nos permite el uso de t´ecnicas como la ´optica adaptativa (o AO, del ingl´es adaptive optics) para obtener im´agenes con alta resoluci´on angular desde la tierra por un lado, por otro lado tenemos serios problemas para la clasificaci ´on estelar debido a que el color intr´ınseco de las estrellas son peque˜nos en el NIR. A causa de las dificultades observacionales, nuestro conocimiento del NSC contiene todav´ıa brechas significativas, a pesar de varias d´ecadas de observaciones. El trabajo existente est´a afectado por uno o ambos de los siguientes problemas: (a) Baja resoluci´on angular, limit´andolo as´ı al estudio de las estrellas m´as brillantes, que representan menos que el uno por ciento de la poblaci´on total del NSC; (b) cobertura espectral limitada, lo que limita su uso para distinguir entre diferentes tipos de estrellas. Los estudios espectrosc´opicos con alta resoluci´on angular est´an necesariamente restringidos a peque˜nos n´umeros de estrellas o campos muy peque˜nos. Por lo tanto, est´an en su mayor´ıa limitados al parsec central. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo proporcionar respuestas a preguntas sin resolver en nuestra comprensi´on del GC, as´ı como proporcionar nuevas restricciones en la estructura del MWNSC mediante el uso de im´agenes de alta resoluci´on y la mejora del an´alisis. Examino las im´agenes en un amplio rango de distancias desde el centro de la Galaxia: desde distancias muy grandes (⇠ 860 pc x 280 pc) hasta los arco-segundos m´as profundos donde habita el agujero negro supermasivo. ; En primer lugar, mi objetivo es estudiar el tama˜no y la estructura espacial del MWNSC. Utilizo datos y m´etodos que abordan posibles deficiencias en trabajos anteriores sobre el tema. Utilizo 0.200 resoluci´on angular Ks datos para crear un mapa de densidad estelar en el GC en los 86.4 pc x 21 pc centrales. Incluyo datos de im´agenes asistidas por AO obtenidas para los parsecs internos. Adem´as, utilizo im´agenes del medio infrarrojo de IRAC/Spitzer. Modelo el bulbo gal´actico y el disco estelar nuclear para subtraerlos del MWNSC. Finalmente, ajusto un modelo S´ersic a el MWNSC e investigo su simetr´ıa. Encuentro que el MWNSC est´a aplanado con una relaci´on de eje de q = 0.71 ± 0.06, un radio efectivo de Re = (5.1 ± 0.6) pc, y un ´ındice S´ersic de n = 2.2 ± 0.4. Su eje mayor se puede inclinar desde el plano gal´actico hasta −10 grados. La distribuci´on de las estrellas gigantes m´as brillantes que el grupo rojo (o RC, del ingl´es red clump) es significativamente m´as plano que la distribuci ´on de las estrellas d´ebiles. El MWNSC comparte sus principales propiedades con otros NSCs extragal´acticos encontrados en galaxias espirales. Las diferencias en la estructura entre gigantes brillantes y las estrellas RC podr´ıan estar relacionadas con la existencia de poblaciones de diferentes edades no completamente mezcladas. Esto puede indicar un crecimiento reciente del MWNSC a trav´es de la formaci´on de estrellas o la acreci´on de c´umulos. Tambi´en reviso el problema de inferir la estructura m´as interna del MWNSC, para aclarar si muestra un coraz´on o una c´uspide alrededor del agujero negro central. La existencia de una c´uspide de densidad estelar din´amicamente relajada en grupos densos alrededor de agujeros negros masivos es una antigua predicci´on de la din´amica estelar, pero hasta ahora ha escapado de la confirmaci´on observacional sin ambig¨uedades. Para estudiar la distribuci´on de estrellas alrededor de Sgr A*, uso los datos obtenidos con el instrumento NACO en el telescopio ESO/Very Large Telescope (VLT) y me centro en dos m´etodos diferentes para analizar tres rangos de brillo estelar diferentes. Encuentro que una ley de Nuker proporciona una descripci´on adecuada de la forma intr´ınseca del c´umulo nuclear (asumiendo simetr´ıa esf´erica). Encuentro que la densidad estelar disminuye con un ´ındice 3D de ley de potencia dentro del rango ! = 1.1−1.4 para distancias m´as peque˜nas que el radio de influencia de Sgr A* (⇠ 3 pc). Podemos descartar un coraz´on plano con alta confianza. La c´uspide es menos profunda que la pronosticada por la teor´ıa, pero puede explicarse si se tiene en cuenta la historia de formaci´on estelar del NSC (Baumgardt et al., 2018). Finalmente, me asomo al mismo centro de la Galaxia mejorando la reducci´on y al an´alisis de los datos existentes. Gracias a la t´ecnica hologr´afica y el an´alisis bootstrapping, detectamos la emisi´on de NIR de Sgr A* en ´epocas anteriores a 2003, cuando se tomaron las primeras mediciones debido al desarrollo de AO. Esto permite a Chen et al. (in preparation) estudiar la actividad en el NIR a largo plazo y explorar el flujo de acreci´on en el agujero negro en ´epocas donde no se hab´ıa detectado hasta el momento. ; The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC grant agreement nº [614922]. ; Peer reviewed
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Industrial agriculture delivers cheap food at high cost in terms of degraded land, water resources, biodiversity and rural societies. It exacerbates floods and droughts, and creates enormous greenhouse gas emissions. There is an alternative: regenerative agriculture that mimics natural ecosystems, holding to four rules: no bare soil, no tillage, a diverse crop rotation and a rough landscape that includes woods and wetlands. Subsidising regenerative farming is politically feasible whereas, probably, taxing land degradation is not. Farmers may be encouraged to adopt regenerative farming through small changes to the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) whereby farmers could form Landcare Groups which would develop a regenerative farming brand – analogous to a protected name such as Chianti Classico. They could then sell their brand to a regional Sustainable Farming Panel and, if authenticated, it could receive a subsidy under the CAP.The cost of food Food prices and food security are existential issues for governments as well as consumers. Since the early 19th century, governments have had to grapple with the competing claims of farmers, manufacturing and popular interests. In the UK, the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846 was a victory for popular interests. Since then, most governments, most of the time, have left the food system to the market and food prices have been driven down – notwithstanding wartime spikes and oil-price shocks. Society has been comfortingly deluded that the food system works. It delivers cheap food to consumers but stresses farmers and degrades the land. Governments nurture the delusion, hide the harm by buying off the farmers and ignore the erosion of natural capital. But the system doesn't deliver cheap food: it delivers underpriced food. The real price is being paid by underpaid labour, the taxpayer and degradation of soil, water, biodiversity and climate stability. None of these is accounted for in the price of food. Governments subsidise farmers to support livelihoods, maintain rural economies, guarantee a degree of food self-sufficiency and protect landscapes and ecosystem services. This last intent is reinforced by compliance conditions, but the bar has never been set very high; this is an area of policy making where the state is learning on the hoof (Allan and Dent, 2021: 3-20). The subsidy model has two tracks. Payment by results was an early policy of the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Farmers responded to the incentive and the outcomes included the butter mountain and the wine lake; cheap credit for big machinery and grants for ripping out hedgerows created more environmental damage. Nowadays, subsidies are shifting to activities: areas reserved for birds and bees receive a subsidy whether or not they are endorsed by the birds and the bees – the activity, not the result, entitles the farmer to financial support. Our proposal to support regenerative farming – exemplified here by the Chianti Classico model – is also based on activities because the results are too complex to assess and don't provide a tangible target for farmers. The need to relearn the last 70 years For decades after the end of the Second World War, farming was flooded with cheap fertilisers and miraculous agrochemicals. Fossil fuels were cheap; the military-industrial complex sidestepped adroitly from explosives to fertilisers, from poisons to pesticides; plant breeders developed responsive new varieties. Together, these gifts of technology created the much-trumpeted "Green Revolution" that, in favourable situations, tripled the yields of staple crops. Favourable situations are unequally distributed so, simultaneously, we saw globalisation of the food system and relocation within individual countries. One of the authors of this essay, Brian Chatterton, lives on an abandoned farm in Umbria (Italy) where sharecroppers, the contadini, deserted a life of labour and poverty for paid work in the prosperous north; and livestock were abandoned because there were no herdsmen. A century earlier, in one of the aurhors' country of origin, in Australia, when farm labour joined the gold rush, farmers introduced fences to control their livestock. Fences were not introduced in Italy; instead, the livestock moved to feedlots – not just a move away from grazing but, also, to make use of the great global grain surplus. In the process, manure was converted from a fertiliser to a pollutant. The gifts of technology came with other calamitous consequences – climatic, ecological and social – and the industrial inputs are now expensive and likely to remain so. As a result, an unsustainable situation has been created. There is an alternative to this nonviable process. Over the last 70 years, regenerative agriculture has emerged as a farmers' movement, without fanfare, and has been adopted across 15% of the world's cropland, in particular in North America and Europe.What is regenerative agriculture? Regenerative agriculture is the antithesis of the "Green Revolution". It emerged under the banner of "Conservation Agriculture" (Kassam, 2020), but the aim is not preservation of what remains of soil, water and biodiversity but building back better by mimicking natural ecosystems. Here are its four rules: First Rule: "Ban Bare Soil". Bare soil invites invasion by weeds. Every year, they must be rooted out, the soil turned and we start again – with bare soil. Bare soil bakes in the sun; so do earthworms and myriad smaller creatures that should be maintaining soil permeability. Rain splash turns bare soil into mud – mud that clogs the pores so that rainwater ponds or runs off the surface, carrying the soil with it. When the rain stops, the pulverised surface sets as a crust that yields immediate runoff from the next rainstorm. And bare soil is carried off by the wind: three-quarters of the topsoil and three and a half million people left the Dust Bowl of the American Plains states in the 1930s. The rule is: don't fallow and, between crops, keep the soil covered with a mulch of crop residues. This keeps it cool, arrests soil erosion, and allows all the rain and snowmelt to infiltrate. Second Rule: "Don't Plough".The purpose of ploughing is to control weeds. Weeds can be controlled by crop rotation without resort to poisonous chemicals. Ploughing uses 60-70% of the energy (labour and diesel fuel) consumed in agriculture – and stimulates germination of more weeds. Worse still, it perturbs the soil's physical and biological structure and promotes the breakdown of soil organic matter – the fuel of life in the soil, the glue that binds soil structure, and which holds more carbon than the atmosphere and all standing vegetation put together. Centuries under the plough have drastically depleted soil organic matter. Stop ploughing, and a net loss of soil organic carbon is transformed to a net gain that draws down the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere; and direct drilling leaves the soil surface protected by crop residues. Third Rule: "Adopt a diverse crop rotation".Natural vegetation is diverse and mostly perennial. Recent advances in crop breeding have brought the yields of perennial cereals and oilseeds within touching distance of established annual varieties (Crews, et al., 2018) but, until they are truly commercial, the next best thing is to follow a diverse crop rotation that includes perennial grasses and legumes – both as crops and pastures. Under this rotation, yields of cash crops are greater than any alternative monoculture; integration of crops and livestock makes good use of the additional biomass; and the costs of fertiliser, herbicides and pesticides are cut if not completely eliminated. Fourth rule: "Create a rough landscape".Restore wetlands and woodlands. Plant windbreaks. Windbreaks are shirts for fields; allocation of 4% of the land area to windbreaks brings a benefit-cost dividend of 10% through lower air temperature, greater humidity, cutting wind speed, retaining snow and runoff, arresting erosion and increasing biodiversity. Moreover, the increased surface roughness creates convectional rainfall; and the transpiration of trees and other perennial vegetation, drawing on deep water reserves, promotes the local water cycle and a more habitable landscape. Regenerative farming is commercial: It is a good livelihood, not the fantasy of a wealthy philanthropist. Regenerative farming is profitable but not obsessed with crop yields because greatly reduced costs and risk contribute to profits as well. Rather, it is possessed by sustainability: meeting the needs of the present without compromising the future. For instance, for several generations, the Chatterton farm in South Australia grew two wheat crops in succession after two or three years of poor pasture grounded on ephemeral grasses. Changing the poor pasture to a protein-rich sward of annual medick immediately improved soil fertility – though not wheat yields because weeds benefitted as well. Costs were much lower, because nitrogen fertiliser was eliminated, and sheep numbers increased from 500 to 1,200 (and the sheep were better fed). The whole system was more productive, more profitable. Regenerative farming can also be intensive as the Chinese, Koreans and Japanese demonstrated for millennia (King, 2004); intensive production requires intensive regeneration and that is what they did. Regenerative agriculture is not anti-science: It doesn't reject all the progress made in the last 70 years. It doesn't reject disease-resistant crops and thousands of other scientific advances. It does reject the view we learned at university, half a century ago, that the soil is merely a neutral growth medium and everything else the plant needs can be supplied by the chemical industry. Regenerative agriculture is not nostalgic:We are not advocating ox-drawn ploughs or the return of poor sharecroppers. Some farmers will adopt old crop varieties provided that there is a market for them, but the concept is not to turn our back on scientific advances. If they really are advances, adopt them. Brian Chatterton, for instance, inherited a farming system that burnt any remaining stubble before drilling the next cereal crop and, so, further reducing what was already a low soil organic matter content. We have no wish to return to this destructive practice. Is regenerative farming the same as organic farming? No. They are not the same although they are moving in the same direction. They cater for different markets. Organic farming eschews industrial chemicals like artificial fertilisers, pesticides and weedkillers so as to satisfy the concerns of the affluent who are anxious about chemical residues in their food and are prepared to pay a premium to avoid them. From the farmers' point of view, organic farming requires a great deal more capital, both monetary and human, and the market premium depends on organically grown food being a niche product. Both organic farming and regenerative farming replace chemicals with knowledge, but organic farmers have to make this investment for several years before they attain organic status and qualify for the price premium. Those years without the price premium, nominally to rid the system of industrial residues, are also needed to master the alternative organic farming practices – for instance, controlling pests without industrial pesticides. In the EU, wider uptake of regenerative agriculture will depend on subsidy from the CAP, which we would call payment for environmental services – services that include arresting soil erosion, delivery of fresh water, moderation of floods and droughts, and cutting emissions of greenhouse gases. We assume that the market will not reward farmers who provide these services, so a CAP subsidy will be invaluable during the years of adoption and adaptation to acquire the necessary skills and the equipment. Why should regenerative farming be adopted? To arrest soil erosion: Archaeological evidence shows, for instance, that soil erosion in central Italy during the last 70 years has been greater than the previous 2,000 years of recorded farming history. The erosion map of Europe (Panagos et al., 2020) confirms that Italy has more soil erosion than any other European country. It has hills and mountains but so do other European countries; and if erosion continues at this rate, we can no longer count the future of fields in decades. But soil erosion is arrested by a complete vegetation cover, as practised by regenerative agriculture. Stopping soil erosion is the main reason given by farmers, worldwide, for adopting regenerative farming: they want to stay in business and pass on a productive farm to their children. Direct cost of current system: The war in Ukraine has pushed up fuel prices and, in turn, the price of fertilisers. For farmers, these costs been offset to some degree by an increase in farm gate prices – which have fed through to higher costs for animal feed – but farm gate prices have fallen away again. Prices depend very much on what the international commodity traders decide is in their best interests: the farmers will have no say. Farmers must pay on the nail for their inputs, but their outputs are at risk from world prices and the weather. No-till farming obviously makes a big saving, not just in fuel, fertiliser and pesticides but in wear and tear and tractor power requirements. Carbon footprint of fertilisers and their further pollution:Manufacture of nitrogenous fertiliser requires a lot of energy and its nitrogen-use efficiency is commonly less than 33%. These fertilisers are readily leached, contaminating streams, groundwater and drinking water; and their breakdown in the soil releases nitrogen oxides – with 300 times the greenhouse effect of the equivalent amount of carbon dioxide. As temperatures rise and droughts intensify, emissions will increase. To regulate water supply, control floods and droughts:Continuing with the case of Italy, this country faces several water crises but they all stem from the state of the soil. The first requirement is to catch the rain and snowmelt. Under nearly all circumstances, a well-protected, well-structured soil will infiltrate all the precipitation it receives. If there is no runoff, there is no flooding and no sedimentation of streams and reservoirs; the soil stays in place, where we all need it to be. Vegetation or, failing that, a mulch of crop residues protects the soil surface from sun, wind and rain; and enhances soil structure – that is to say, the architecture of the pore space that holds and transmits water. To increase soil organic matter: Soil structure is held together by soil organic matter; the more organic matter, the more resilient the structure. Soil organic matter is also the primary source of plant nutrients, which are steadily released by microbial decomposition under the very same conditions that growing plants need – not in a rush as with artificial fertilisers, so losses by leaching are minimal. Soil organic matter increases under regenerative agriculture because there is more biomass and less decomposition under more equable soil temperatures, the absence of intensive soil disturbance, and without periodic erosion of the topsoil. Cultivate less: Cultivation accelerates the breakdown of soil organic matter which releases the nutrients it holds, so the ploughing of virgin soils provided bumper yields. But yields crashed when the humus was not replaced. Under the current conventional farming system in large parts of Europe, the land is ploughed deeply using powerful tractors that burn a lot of fuel. Ploughing buries the weeds and stubble left from the previous crop but, at the same time, destroys soil structure and permeability and creates a pan at the plough sole that needs even deeper cultivation to break it up. Having used a lot of energy to upend the soil, the farmers have created fields of hard clay bricks that require yet more power to smash them down into a reasonable seed bed. Farmers need to acquire different machinery and use it differently. As a first step, they shouldn't turn everything upside down. Leaving crop residues on the surface protects the soil from the elements and supplements soil organic matter; but increasing soil organic matter also means retaining all crop residues rather than selling bales of straw to livestock farmers. As soil organic matter increases, soil structure improves; the clods will crumble and require less force to create a seedbed. It follows that tractors do not need to be so big and heavy; sowing can be undertaken at the optimum time; autumn rains will be more effective; and undisturbed soil enables mycorrhizal fungi – old friends of higher plants – to proliferate their slow-growing hyphae throughout the soil profile, absorbing and passing on otherwise hard to get nutrients like phosphate. Grow legumes: Sustainable farming also needs legumes that fix their own nitrogen fertiliser from the air and, in turn, release the nutrients for intercrops or other crops in rotation. Bring back grazing: There is little interest in improved pastures in mainland Italy, although there are such legume pastures in Sardinia. A similar situation prevails in much of Europe. Perennial lucerne, erba medica in Italy, is very productive but hard to incorporate into a cereal rotation. The advantage of legumes in grazed pastures or leys is that more of the nitrogen fixed by the plants is retained and the biomass, returned as manure, is spread for free. Animals on feedlots are fed on imported soya and grains grown using chemical fertiliser, and their manure is not conveniently recycled.Retain stubble: A decline in feedlots will also cut the market for straw. Leaving the straw in the field will increase soil organic matter but cereal straw is poor in nitrogen. Microorganisms breaking down the straw take up nitrogen from the soil, in competition with growing crops, so it can pay to add some pump-priming nitrogen fertiliser or a commercial stubble bio-decomposer. Once the straw has rotted, the nitrogen is available again. How to encourage regenerative farming in Europe? Society needs regenerative farming as much as the farmers do – but the market will not pay for it. If we follow the subsidy track, payment by results might be attractive but practical and ethical issues immediately arise. What should those results be? How can they be proven? For instance, we might pay according to improvement in ground cover, soil bulk density and soil organic carbon (easy-to-measure proxies for soil health) (Dent, 2019). But the starting point has to be determined; in the case of soil organic matter, it varies from very low in sandy soils to very high in swamps, and may vary by an order of magnitude within any field. This means a lot of tests. The feasible rate of increase is similarly variable and depends as much on the weather as the farmer; and the gain declines as the soil attains a new equilibrium. When the effective ceiling is reached, is the farmer to be paid simply to maintain it? And is reimbursement to be enforced if it is not maintained, for instance following a change of ownership? We are proposing an alternative, socially well-proven and familiar model based on farmers' actions, not outcomes. It builds upon voluntary associations of farmers that have been the bedrock of regenerative agriculture as a farmers' movement across six continents, such as the Clubs Amigos da Terra in Brazil and the Landcare movement in Australia. The Chianti Classico model The Chianti Classico model is The Chianti Classico model is an alternative, a socially well-proven and familiar model based on farmers' actions, not outcomes. It builds upon voluntary associations of farmers. Chianti Classico is just one among thousands of similar protected names for wine, cheese, ham, etc. throughout Europe that follow similar rules. Essentially, a group of winemakers cooperate, not to make the best wine – that is a matter of fierce individual competition – but to eliminate substandard wine in the expectation that the market will reward them with a higher price. We are proposing local Landcare Groups on similar lines but, since the market will not reward them for farming more sustainably, the new groups will pitch for CAP subsidies. Each group will propose a plan for sustainable farming; a combination of the elements described above appropriate to their circumstances – a plan for the eroded hills of the Val d'Orcia will be different from one for the floodplains of the Chiana, just as Orvieto Classico Superiore is different from Chianti Classico. The group will then add a timetable for implementation and submit the plan to the competent authority for disbursing public funds to support regenerative agriculture. We propose the establishment of a Sustainable Farming Panel for each regional funding body to evaluate these plans. The panel can score the plan on, say, a five-point scale. If the plan is accepted and according to the score awarded, the farmers will receive an annual payment for a period of up to three years to implement it. Payment will be in advance because the costs of change are immediate while the returns and cost savings take time. Most of the payment will be to individual farmers within the group, according to the area proposed for regenerative farming, but 20% may be paid to the group as a whole for education and training, perhaps outside assistance, or as a bonus to members who already have experience of regenerative practices and can serve as mentors. Regenerative farming brand: implementation plan What is a Landcare Group? Like Chianti Classico, it is a legal entity. This is important because the group will be handling public funds. The group is also making promises as a group to the Sustainable Farming Panel. While it is not the same as Chianti Classico and other protected names it should not be difficult to draw up an appropriate legal framework on similar lines. The Landcare Group is not a cooperative, as each farmer farms and sells produce separately. Cooperatives may be formed within the group, particularly for farm machinery, but they are quite separate organisations. The Landcare Group is defined by its objective, which is to maintain a certain standard of regenerative farming. The standard that the group must meet is the standard they put forward in their proposal to the Sustainable Farming Panel, accepted by the panel as sufficient to entitle them to a certain level of subsidy, and subject to review by the panel. For example, a level 1 subsidy may require a 25% reduction in nitrogen fertiliser application and tractor fuel use. Maintaining this standard will entitle the group to the subsidy and this standard will be maintained, firstly, by group action. That is, the group will tell the individual farmer that certain farm practices must change, and they will help to make those changes. Anyone who consistently fails can be expelled but, usually, help from within the group will enable a member to reach the standard. How is a group formed? It may be through existing local farmers' groups, through the encouragement of an accountant or farming adviser, and other ways. Obviously, it needs a commitment to a certain level of sustainable farming. The group is also a source of knowledge that can help other farmers but, if the foundation group is diluted, the core group may be held back as it tries to move up the sustainable farming scale. Guidance on proposals: The Sustainable Farming Panel needs to issue guidance on its priorities for a certain region. For example, the Val d'Orcia in Tuscany is a crisis area for soil erosion, so the guidance will say that proposals must tackle soil erosion as their first priority. It might also suggest measures to improve soil structure such as increasing soil cover and soil organic matter and selective tree planting. This guidance will help groups to formulate their proposals, but it is important to emphasise that the concept is not rigid: guidance is only guidance, not a set of rules. Judging proposals: Over several decades, funding authorities have adopted the competitive approach of the marketplace. If a group of people, or a commune, applies for a subsidy for a new road, a community centre or a theatre group, they will compete for the available funds in the knowledge that funds are limited and not all projects will be funded. The funding authority will receive a suite of well-presented proposals, but the system imposes high costs and risks on those seeking funds: in our case groups of farmers. Farmers need a high level of optimism to be farmers, but they often have a high level of pessimism when it comes to dealing with government agencies. Farmers seeking to become Landcare Groups should not be burdened with extra presentation costs and risks. Moreover, we, the community, want to reduce the climate impact of farming, need to combat floods and drought, need farmers to change. We don't have unlimited funds but must not make the system too expensive and too complicated for farmers. Facing a similar problem in South Australia after three years of severe drought, many famers lacked the cash or credit to sow another crop. The government wanted them to sow the crop because agricultural output was important for the state's economy. So, it provided low-cost loans, but it had to be prudent. Farmers had to provide information to prove the legitimacy of their needs but, as minister of agriculture, Brian Chatterton developed a simpler system to provide a first-step or provisional approval that gave the farmer a strong incentive to provide all the additional information needed to complete the approval. Not one approval was rejected in the second round because the farmer had made the initial application with false information. With this experience, we suggest that a Landcare Group should put forward a proposal in general terms which can be discussed with an Assessment Officer employed by the Sustainable Farming Panel. The officer can then give advice and point out how the proposal needs to be framed to gain approval. From that point, the Landcare Group can be reasonably assured their proposal will be accepted and will have a strong incentive to go ahead and work up the detailed proposal, which would still need to be endorsed by the Sustainable Farming Panel to maintain consistency between the Assessment Officers and to allow proposals that are outside the guidance to be considered. Of course, the bureaucracy would prefer fully complete proposals that can be approved or rejected at one meeting, but the more cooperative approach reduces the risk for the Landcare Groups and, thereby, will bring more of them on board. Monitoring Landcare Groups: Countering land degradation and climate change is imperative so we need to get funding to farmers urgently; the necessary farming changes will take several years to be fully effective. At the same time, we cannot afford to expose millions of euros to fraud. The first and principal means of enforcement is self-assessment. Our experience of self-assessment of the quality of named wines1 suggests that producers are willing and able to make tough decisions to maintain standards. Voluntary systems policed by consent have always proved to be more popular and more effective than command and control. Official checks are, of course, practicable using satellite imagery and, in detail, using UAVs. For example, farmers may promise to tackle bald patches or gullies that can easily be seen and measured on satellite imagery. For examination of actual crop species, an inspector can make a reasonably detailed examination of the cropping pattern of a whole farm in less than an hour using a UAV, and a complete Landcare Group could be checked in a couple of days; but self-policing will be the norm. Cost savings – to the administration: Assessing thousands of individual applications for a regenerative farming subsidy would require a considerable administration, which will be much reduced if farmers apply in Landcare Groups. The groups will be subject to periodic review, not as individual farmers but as groups. Over time, the group might move up the scale or, if they fail to meet their promises, move down; but policing of any individual's adherence to the conditions of the payment can be left to the other members of the group. Members of the Landcare Group cannot avoid assessing their neighbours, but the impact is not so drastic as with the exclusion of a wine from the Chianti Classico label. Cost savings – to the farmers: It is important to consider the cost and risk to farmers in making an application especially if a paid intermediary is employed. The Chianti Classico group approach cuts the cost per hectare and shares these costs among several farmers. Over time, costs are reduced further as farmers join existing Landcare Groups.In the 1960s, European farmers demonstrated that they could change their farming system and produce more food by responding to incentives provided under the CAP. At the same time, these changes also harmed the environment. The farmers will change again if they are offered the appropriate incentives to adopt regenerative farming. The Chianti Classico model is a practical means to do so. References Allan, Toni and Dent, David. "The cost of food: consequences of not valuing soil and water and the people who manage them", in: Dent, David. and Boincean, Boris (ed.) Regenerative agriculture. What's missing? What else do we still need to know? (22 June, 2021). Kassam, Amir. (ed.). Advances in conservation agriculture. Vol. 1-3.Cambridge: Burleigh Dodds Science Publishing, 2020. Crews, Timothy E.; Carton, Wim and Olsson, Lennart. "Is the future of agriculture perennial?Imperatives and opportunities to reinvent agriculture by shifting from annual monocultures toperennial polycultures". Global Sustainability, vol. 1 (2018), p. 1-18. Chatterton, Lynne and Chatterton, Brian. Sustainable Dryland Farming. Cambridge University Press, 2005. King, F H. Farmers of Forty Centuries: Organic Farming in China, Korea and Japan. Mineola NY: Dover Publications, 2004. Panagos, Panos; Ballabo, Cristiano; Poesna, Jean; Lugato, Emmanuel; Scarpa, Simone; Montanarella, Luca and Borrelli, Pasquale. "A soil erosion indicator for supporting agricultural, environment and climate policies in the European Union". Remote Sensing. vol. 12, no. 9 (2020) Dent, David. "A standard for soil health". International Journal of Environmental Studies. vol. 77, no. 4, (November 2019), p. 613-618.Note:1- In the case of appellation d'origin contrôlée (AOC)/denominazione di origin controllata (DOC), nearly all the winemakers in the district, as well as some officials, conduct tastings to establish if they are good enough to bear the all-important name. The wines are awarded a class 1 or 2 which is advisory and has no legal standing. Wines that fail class 2 are graded as Unacceptable. Examination of the voting figures reveals that many wines graded 1 or 2 receive votes of, perhaps, 55% in favour and 45% against but, when it came to the Unacceptable grade, there is not a single wine with less than 90% vote to reject. So, producers are quite capable of making the tough decisions needed to maintain standards. Authors:Brian Chatterton, former Minister of Agriculture in South Australia and farmer in Umbria (Italy)David Dent, former head of the World Soil Association;Martin Keulertz, Lecturer in Environmental Management, University of the West of England, BristolAll the publications express the opinions of their individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of CIDOB as an institution.
The use of chemicals is one of the key factors in the sustainability and has a particular relevance in the textile and clothing sector, due not only to the legislation related with chemicals used (specially REACH, CLP and BPR Regulations) but also to clients RSL (restricted substance list) and campaigns from non-governmental organizations, such as the Detox campaign and ZDHC programme. As response to this challenges some methodologies and tools are available:ZDHC toolsOEKO-TEX® products: STANDARD 100 (appendix 6) and DETOX TO ZEROGM SUB toolZDHC toolsThe ZDHC (Zero Zero Discharge of Hazardous Chemicals) Programme main objective is to eliminate the use of priority chemicals (11 category of chemicals) and for that has developed some tools that the companies can use, including:Manufacturing Restricted Substances List (version 1.1, from 2015) provides a list of priority chemicals and specifies the maximum concentration limit of each substance within commercial chemical formulations. It has 2 chapters, one for textiles and synthetic leather processing and the other for natural leather processing. And 2 groups, group A for raw material and finished product (substances that are banned from intentional use in facilities that process raw materials and manufacture finished products), and group B for chemical supplier (substances are restricted to concentration limits in chemical formulations commercially available from chemical suppliers)Interim MRSL Conformance Guidance, help brands and suppliers judge their confidence in whether a perceived MRSL compliant formulation from a supplier actually meets the requirements of the ZDHC MRSL standardMRSL Supplier Acknowledgement Letter (template letter)Chemical Guidance Sheets (substance use, reason for restriction, and safer alternatives), for chlorobenzenes, chlorophenols, halogenated solvents, organotins, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons/ naphthalene, toluene, long-chain perfluoroalkyl acids (LCPFAAs), nonylphenol (NP), nonylphenol ethoxylates (NPEOs), phthalates and short-chain chlorinated paraffinsChemical Management Systems (CMS) Guidance Manual (from 2015), focuses on the approach, structure and documentation needed to create and support a ZDHC Programme. The CMS is structured in five sections that follow the plan-do-check-act: commitment to CMS (plan phase), assessment, planning and prioritisation (plan phase), chemicals management (do phase), monitoring (check phase) and management review (act phase)Right to Know Disclosure Methodology Research (2014), present the ZDHC team research results on chemical compliance and disclosure methodologiesZDHC Academy provides brands and manufacturers with ZDHC certified training to improve their knowledge and practice of responsible chemical management STANDARD 100 by OEKO-TEX® (appendix 6)STANDARD 100 by OEKO-TEX® is a worldwide consistent, independent testing and certification system for raw, semi-finished, and finished textile products at all processing levels, as well as accessory materials used. The certified textile products are tested for harmful substances, legally banned and controlled substances, chemicals known to be harmful to the health (but not yet legally controlled) and parameters for health protection.Appendix 6 of STANDARD 100 by OEKO-TEX® was specially developed for companies focused in Detox campaign. The limits in this annex does not take from human ecological point of view but considering special environmental friendly production conditions, therefore the limit values are stricter (than in appendix 4) DETOX TO ZERO by OEKO-TEX®DETOX TO ZERO by OEKO-TEX® is a comprehensive verification and reporting system that prepares facilities along the textile chain for the requirements requested by the Detox campaign of Greenpeace. The DETOX TO ZERO by OEKO-TEX® service is focused on:the establishment of a transparent chemical management systema continuous improvement plan to reduce hazardous substances in the production process, e.g. comprehensive MRSL examinationwastewater and sludge measurementsimprovement of protective measures for the protection of the environmentDETOX TO ZERO provides an annual status report about chemicals used, evaluation of waste and wastewater treatment analysis and environmental protection measures so the facility and its buyers have a continuous monitoring tool focused on achieving Detox campaign alignment. In addition, OEKO-TEX® pays particular attention to the following:Elimination:Eliminating all release of toxic chemicals and recognising that there are no environmentally safe levels for hazardous substances according to Greenpeace's priority list of 11 hazardous chemicals/chemical groups.Prevention and precaution:Review and analysis of processes and measures for continuous improvement regarding preventive measures for the handling and the use of hazardous substances.Right to know:Documentation of the company's operations including training, environmental reporting, internal and external communications. One of the targets is a publicly available register on the OEKO-TEX website.Within the scope of DETOX TO ZERO by OEKO-TEX®, tests are conducted to check against the requirements of the Detox campaign, but OEKO-TEX® has added incremental elements such as, for example, resource efficiency, health protection, environmental protection and prevention of water pollution, and occupational safety.This procedure for this OEKO-TEX® service is the following:Online-application or contact an OEKO-TEX® instituteUser accesses an online questionnaire (DETOX assessment tool) to gather information about the Chemical Management System, inventory of chemicals used including CAS number, MSDS information as well as main ingredients, components additives and, if possible, information about impurities, wastewater and sludge informationOn-site visit from an OEKO-TEX® specialist to verify the stated company data and process information.Final status report including improvements and compliance level. This validity of the report is one year. A renewal can be applied for up to three months before the end of the validity period GM SUBGM SUB is a software tool for SDS (safety data sheets) and chemical management, developed by CITEVE and MACWIN company. The information is based on the chemicals used in a company, considering their SDS, places where they are used, legislation and chemical incompatibilities.Based on that information, GM-SUB automatically creates communication documents in a quick and effective manner, such as:Safety data sheet (on paper or in digital format), the complete version or a summary of the most relevant information (to be available in the places where chemicals are stored or used)Labels (for instance when the original recipient losses the label or for new recipients, when collecting samples for laboratory use, for example, or for repackaging)Awareness posters, like posters with safety alerts/ hazard and precautionary statements, like storage incompatibilities and good practice for handling and storing chemical substancesIt also allows the user to search specific substances and/or mixtures used in the company (indicating the workplaces where they are used), based on:CAS Number, EC Number or REACH registration number,Hazard classes or R-, S-, H- and P-phrasesRisk assessment of chemicals is a key issue in companies, and one of the biggest difficulties is related to determining chemical incompatibility. So GM SUB permits to check for compatibility between chemical substances used in a company, based on the hazard class and CAS number.As the protection of workers when handling chemical substances is very important, GM-SUB allows the identification of the necessary personal protective equipment, by chemical and/or by workplace, within a given workplace, when handling a particular chemical, moreover, it permits to identify the personal protective equipment for each worker.GM-SUB is continuously updated in accordance with the latestSVHClist (Substances of Very High Concern). This way at any time the user can access information on whether a substance used in the company has been placed on the candidate list or a new substance the company intend to use is already on the candidate list. These methodologies and tools are essential to the new sustainable chemistry, including reduction of hazardous chemicals (hazardous for humans or for the environment), specially to answer the challenges of the chemicals used in textile sector, namely the legislation related with chemicals speciallyREACH,CLPandBPR Regulations) but also to clients RSL (restricted substance list) and campaigns from non-governmental organizations, such as the Detox campaign and ZDHC programme.Since 2006, with the publication of theREACH(Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals) Regulation (Regulation CE 1907/2006), the chemicals start to be analyses in a more comprehensive way, which means, this Regulation was adopted to improve the protection of human health and the environment from the risks that can be posed by chemicals, so the legislation includes the articles, beside the chemical substances and the mixtures. The application of the REACH Regulation in textile articles (from fibres to final products) has three possible levels of application:The registration of substances in articles (when the substance, in quantity superior to 1 ton/year, is intended to be released from articles to provide added value)The authorization, including the candidate list of substances of very high concern (SVHC) for authorization (if an article has a substance in theSVHClist in quantity superior to 0,1%, the supplier has to provide to the client enough information to allow the safe use of the article, as a minimum the name of the substance in question has to be communicated. And if thatSVHCis present in these articles in quantities totaling over 1 ton/year, the company have to notify ECHA, no later than six months after the inclusion of the substance in the candidate list), and the annex XIV – list of substances subject to authorization (these substances cannot be placed on the market or used after a given date, unless an authorisation is granted for their specific use, or the use is exempted from authorization)The restriction defined in annex XVII (includes specific restriction for textile articles and some general restriction that are relevant to textile articles)TheBPR(Biocidal Product Regulation), Regulation EU 528/2012, concerns the placing on the market and use of biocidal products, which are used to protect humans, animals, materials or articles against harmful organisms, like pests or bacteria, by the action of the active substances contained in the biocidal product. This regulation defines that biocidal products need an authorization before they can be placed on the market, and the active substances contained in that biocidal product must be previously approved. There rules applies to several types of products (PT), including two that are relevant to textile articles, the PT2: Disinfectants and algaecides not intended for direct application to humans or animals, used to be incorporated in textiles, tissues, masks, paints and other articles or materials with the purpose of producing treated articles with disinfecting properties, and PT9: Fibre, leather, rubber and polymerized materials preservatives, used for the preservation of fibrous or polymerised materials, such as leather, rubber or paper or textile products by the control of microbiological deterioration. This product-type includes biocidal products which antagonise the settlement of micro-organisms on the surface of materials and therefore hamper or prevent the development of odour and/or offer other kinds of benefits.The Detox campaign was launched in 2011, by Greenpeace, with the main objective of remove from the textile supply chain a group of 11 categories of chemicals, until 2020. A company commitment with this campaign represent the adoption of measures to phase out the use and release of some chemicals from their global supply chain and products. The commitment is based in three fundamental principles:Zero discharge of all hazardous chemicals: this means really eliminating all releases: whether via waste water pipe discharges, other production emissions (e.g. air and solid wastes) or later life "losses" from the final product — recognising that there are no environmentally safe levels for hazardous substancesPrevention and Precaution: this means taking preventative action towards the elimination of hazardous chemicals in the face of scientific uncertainty. This should be focused on elimination at source through substitution with sustainable alternatives or even product redesignRight to know. this means that brands and their supply chains need to be fully transparent and that they need to publicly disclose information about the hazardous chemicals used and discharged when making their productsUntil now the Detox campaign has been public adopted by nineteen brands, namely,Nike, Adidas,Puma,H&M,M&S,C&A, Li-Ning,Zara,Mango, Esprit,Levi's,Uniqlo,Benetton,Victoria's Secret,G-Star RawValentino,Coop,Canepa,BurberryandPrimark. The group of 11 categories of chemicals that must be eliminated arealkylphenols,phthalates,brominated and chlorinated flame retardants,azo dyes,organotin compounds,perfluorinated chemicals,chlorobenzenes,chlorinated solvents,chlorophenols,short-chain chlorinated paraffinsandheavy metals: cadmium, lead, mercury and chromium (VI).The ZDHC (Zero Zero Discharge of Hazardous Chemicals) Programme, developed by ZDHC Foundation, takes a holistic approach to tackling the issue of hazardous chemicals in the global textile and footwear value chain. The objective is to eliminate the use of priority chemicals by focussing on the following areas:Manufacturing Restricted Substances List (MRSL): is a list of chemical substances banned from intentional use in facilities that process textile materials and trim parts in apparel and footwear. It establishes acceptable concentration limits for these substances as impurities or by-products in chemical formulations used within manufacturing facilities. It is supported by the documentZDHC MRSL V1.1, from 2015.Wastewater Quality: Well-designed, properly functioning wastewater treatment plants, good process controls and effective chemicals management are key to minimizing chemical, physical and biological pollutants discharged into the environmentAudit Protocol: was developed to ensure consistency in environmental auditing across the supply chain and sharing of audit findings. The Audit Protocol is supported by the ZDHC Chemical Management System (CMS) Guidance Manual, released in 2015Research: Research List is a list of prioritized chemical substances for which there are no safer alternatives in the market today. It lists priority chemical substances that require additional research or substitutionData and Disclosure: While implementing the Joint Roadmap, the need for integrated data management became apparent. The ZDHC Programme and its value chain participants including mills, tanneries, chemical companies and third-party service providers began exploring the challenges in data capture, reporting and global synchronizationTraining: is designed to support implementation of ZDHC standards throughout the value chain. Training is aimed at all parts of the value chain, including, brands, chemical suppliers, manufacturers and other intermediaries to adopt ambitious chemical management standardsDue to this new challenges the textile sector must implement a chemical management system that, in a first step, identify the problematic chemicals and in a second phase, look for safer alternatives. Considering that the textile wet or chemical processes (like dyeing, printing, coating, etc.), uses a huge quantity of chemicals, the management of those chemicals can only be effective if supported by tools and structured methodologies that help the chemical textile user to move for a sustainable chemistry. Relevant links:REACH Regulation:https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/SVHC candidate list:https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-tableAuthorization list:https://echa.europa.eu/addressing-chemicals-of-concern/authorisation/recommendation-for-inclusion-in-the-authorisation-list/authorisation-listRestrictions:https://echa.europa.eu/addressing-chemicals-of-concern/restrictions/substances-restricted-under-reachCLP Regulation:https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/clpBPR regulation:https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/biocidal-products-regulationList of authorised biocidal products:https://echa.europa.eu/information-on-chemicals/biocidal-productsDetox campaign:http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/detox/water/detox/intro/ZDHC programmehttp://www.roadmaptozero.com/programme/OEKO-TEX® Products:https://www.oeko-tex.com/en/business/business_home/business_home.xhtml
How hospitable will the global environment be for economic growth in the developing world as we come out of the present financial crisis? The answer depends on how well the author manage the following tension. On the one hand, global macro stability requires that we prevent external imbalances from getting too large. On the other hand, growth in poor nations requires that the world economy be able to absorb a rapid increase in the supply of tradable produced in the developing world. It is possible to render these two requirements compatible, but doing so requires greater use of explicit industrial policies in developing countries, which have the potential of encouraging of modern tradable activities without spilling over into trade surpluses. The 'price' to be paid for greater discipline on real exchange rates and external imbalances is greater use (and permissiveness) towards industrial polices.
In the international context, this research analyzes the state of the art of scientific discussion, the action exerted by national and local governments through regulations, and the opinion of professionals in the field of construction of buildings in relation to the implementation of energy efficiency measures in buildings. In general, the interest in the different areas has been driven primarily by: 1) the worldwide increased energy consumption in buildings, emphasizes by an increasingly urbanized world and the resource scarcity for power generation, primarily fossil fuels; 2) the increase in greenhouse gas emissions related to the buildings' construction and operation; and 3) the thermal behaviour of the building's envelope, which determines the energy demand for thermal conditioning; mainly for heating in winter and cooling in summer. The foregoing has resulted in the implementation of different types of energy efficiency measures in the building sector around the world. On the one hand, through mandatory measures, driven by national and local governments through building codes; mandatory measures require that when building a new building or refurbishing an existing one, the architects, private developers, or builders must comply with building standards that govern the thermal performance of the different elements of the buildings' thermal envelope. On the other hand, by implementing voluntary measures, such as international certification systems, established by non-governmental institutions, aimed at legitimizing the efforts of building owners, design teams, and builders to design, build, and operate buildings in an environmentally friendly way. The latter has triggered an international trend and an increasing demand for certification of the so-called "green buildings". Such independent certification systems seek to reduce the environmental impact of activities in the construction sector. In the Chilean context, this research analyzes the relationship between two main pillars of the Chilean economy, the energy sector and the private housing sector. Particularly, this research focuses on the implementation of energy efficiency measures in the private housing market in Santiago, the Chilean capital. From the energy perspective, the high vulnerability for power generation by the dependence on the provision of gas from neighbouring countries and periods of drought affecting hydroelectric power generation, has led to the Chilean government intervention. Government intervention is centred on two main lines of action: 1) the diversification of the country's energy matrix, through the implementation of alternative systems for power generation based on non-conventional renewable energy sources; and 2) the implementation of energy efficiency measures. In the construction sector, the latter is expressed by the entry into force of the New Thermal Regulations for new residential buildings in three stages in the building code since 2000. With the implementation of new regulations in the construction sector in the Chilean context and the growing demand for green building in the international context, private real estate companies and construction companies, which are the backbone of the construction sector in Chile, have reacted by offering energy efficient real estate products in Santiago de Chile. Based on the foregoing, arises the main question leading this doctoral thesis: How do real estate developers apply energy efficiency in their housing offer in Santiago de Chile? The main research question is further refined by three sub questions: 1) who are the real estate developers that are adopting energy efficiency and why? This is a compound question, first it seeks to identify real estate companies adopting energy efficiency measures in Santiago de Chile's private housing market; then it looks into the motivations for doing so; 2) what types of energy efficiency measures are real estate companies adopting? This sub-research question seeks to identify the adopted residential energy efficiency strategies; and 3) which barriers to further implementation of energy efficiency exist? It seeks to identify the setbacks found by energy efficiency adopters in the implementation process, in order to understand local issues in the adoption process. The Case Study and Selection of Sub-Cases for the Analysis The research focuses on the voluntary implementation of residential energy efficiency measures in the private housing market; moreover, it analyzes the case of Santiago de Chile. Therefore, the focus is set on real estate companies that offer energy efficient housing in their offer for real estate products in the metropolitan region. The selection of embedded sub-cases for the analysis, or sub-cases, was made by applying a criterion sampling strategy known as purposive sampling. For this, a thorough review of 568 private real estate companies' websites, offering different real estate products in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago de Chile between June and July 2011, was performed. Out of this group, a set of 45 companies that offering energy efficient homes mentioned were selected. Later on, personal interviews mainly with general managers of real estate development companies and other actors considered key informants because of their knowledge in the field, such as scholars, representatives from public institutions, other public and private research centres, and practitioners, were conducted between April and May 2012. Main Methods and Data Analysis Research is conducted under a qualitative approach, as it focuses primarily on the opinion of real estate companies' CEOs and other key informants considered information rich when helping answering the research questions. The main tool for data analysis was the thematic content analysis. Main Findings The main results of this research are structured on the basis of the answering the secondary research questions or sub-questions. Who are the real estate developers that are adopting energy efficiency and why? As it was mentioned above, the first part of this compound sub-question seeks to identify the real estate companies that are implementing residential energy efficiency measures in their offer in the housing market in Santiago de Chile. A set of 45 real estate companies were identified because they mentioned to be applying some sort of energy efficiency measures. This was a rather small group since, at that time, 568 real estate companies were offering housing products. Based on the empirical findings, a categorization of real estate companies following the Roger's model was conducted. Thus, real estate companies were categorized depending on when they began adopting residential energy efficiency measures in their housing offer. The three stages of the New Thermal Regulation issued for the housing sector in Chile were selected as time-milestones for defining the adopter categories. Accordingly, three main categories emerged following Roger's model. 1) Innovators, includes real estate companies who adopted energy efficiency measures for the first time before the entry into force of the first stage of the NRT in 2000; 2) Early Adopters, groups real estate companies who adopted residential energy efficiency measures for the first time between the first and second stage of the New Thermal Regulation, that is to say between 2001 and 2007; and 3) Early Majority, includes real estate companies who began to apply residential energy efficiency measures starting in 2008, meaning after the second stage of New Thermal Regulation came into force. The empirical evidence suggests that the adoption process of energy efficiency measures has started following the normal development described by Rogers' innovation curve. Therefore, it is expected that the rest of the real estate developers operating in the private housing market in Santiago de Chile will eventually follow the Innovators, Early Adopters, and Early Majority categories. This is mainly due to the recent introduction of thermal regulation by the government and because the housing market is a highly competitive market, in which none of the players can risk to be left behind. The second part of the sub-research question, and probably the most important one, seeks to understand the motivations for real estate companies to offer and implement energy-efficient real estate products in Santiago de Chile's private housing market. This research identifies the motivations of real estate development companies in the opinion of their managers collected in personal semi-structured interviews conducted during fieldwork. Based on the thematic analysis of the abovementioned interviews, four categories of motivations for offering and applying energy efficiency were identified based on the company managers' opinion. These categories, in order of preference are: 1) Market Differentiation Strategies (Competitiveness and Trending); 2) Company Policies (Client-Oriented Policies, Innovation Policies, and Environmentally-friendly Policies); 3) Resource efficiency (Reduction of Household\'s Expenses and Concerns for Energy Scarcity); and 4) Government Incentive Schemes (Subsidies to the Use of Renewable Energy). Briefly, the main motivations for adopting energy efficiency measures in the private housing offer are related to marketing strategies. In general, real estate companies operating in Santiago de Chile are looking to distinguish themselves from their competitors by offering energy-efficient housing products. This is mainly because real estate companies are following a trend that is driven by several factors such as: local energy shortage periods, the international influence of green buildings in the real estate market, and the growing demand for international certifications in the Chilean context. What types of energy efficiency measures are real estate companies adopting? As mentioned earlier, this research identifies real estate companies offering energy-efficient housing in the private real estate market of Santiago de Chile who implemented a diversity of energy efficiency strategies in their housing supply, as the empirical evidence shows. Although the motivations for implementing energy efficiency measures are diverse (as described previously), energy efficiency measures are mainly implemented in order to reach a comfort temperature inside the dwelling, making all possible efforts to ensure that energy is used efficiently. In the case of the residential buildings, this means looking for the optimal use of energy for space heating or cooling, lighting, hot sanitary water, and ventilation. In general, depending on whether there is the need to make an additional energy effort in order to achieve optimum indoor comfort conditions, the energy efficiency measures implemented in the private housing sector in Santiago de Chile can be grouped into two main categories of energy efficiency strategies: passive design strategies and active design strategies. On the one hand, passive design strategies refer to what real estate developers are doing to reduce the energy consumption of their housing buildings. Such strategies include: 1) improving the overall thermal performance of the building envelope; 2) the use of renewable energy, mainly solar thermal and photovoltaic technology, for hot sanitary water and energy conversion respectively; and 3) bioclimatic design and construction principles. As it was mentioned in Section 6.1, a basic characteristic of passive design strategies, distinguishing them from active design strategies, is that in order to operate they rely on the building site and the inherited thermal properties of the building materials used in the different housing building typologies. On the other hand, active design strategies refer to the technological innovations implemented in order to maintain an optimal indoor thermal conditioning and to reduce the energy used in the different buildings' systems; namely, 1) illumination systems; 2) heating systems; 3) centralized control systems; and 4) air conditioning systems. In general, real estate developers adopted active design strategies as a complement to the use of passive design strategies. Not surprisingly, real estate developers have mentioned the improvement of the thermal envelope as the most commonly used residential energy efficiency strategy. This results from the fact that internationally and in Chile, regulations in the housing sector were implemented in order to improve the thermal behaviour of dwellings, and therefore, their energy efficiency. Finally, a third type of energy efficiency strategy adopted by real estate developers in Santiago de Chile is the result of a public-private partnership between the Chilean Government and the Chilectra, the local electricity utility. The initiative is called "Chilectra – Full Electric Buildings" and it offers an optional electrical energy tariff for residential consumers. This strategy is further explained in Section 6.3. Which barriers to further implementation of energy efficiency exist? Based on the opinion of the various key stakeholder involved in this research, this research shows that most barriers to energy efficiency in the private housing sector in Santiago de Chile interact and strengthen each other. The classification of barriers to further implementation of energy efficiency is not straightforward. Nonetheless, in the opinion of real estate companies' managers, the barriers to adopting energy efficiency measures in the private housing market in Santiago de Chile revolve around the specific characteristics of the local social system. These barriers are: 1) market barriers; 2) organizational barriers; 3) institutional barriers; and 4) behavioural barriers. In relation to the categorization of energy efficiency adopters identified in the first sub-question, the empirical evidence seems to indicate that, not all the barriers play the same role for all adopter categories. In general, market barriers are most relevant to the innovators group. Although most of the real estate developers mentioned that even today the local market and the local construction industry are not ready to provide adequate support (both in the availability of products and services) for further development of the market for energy efficient construction, the deficiency was greater 20 years ago, when the innovators first started to implement residential energy efficiency measures in the private housing sector. Moreover, the other barriers encountered (namely organizational and institutional barriers) are transversal to the adopter categories. This seems to drawn from the organizational and institutional characteristics of the context in which private real estate companies operate. The context remains constant over time and their internal relationships are also maintained, homogeneously affecting all adopter categories. Finally, barriers related to end users and/or clients' behaviour are mainly listed by early majority adopters, which comprises developers who implement residential energy efficiency measures recently (after 2000). Apparently, this results mainly from the fact that end user are lacking information about the benefits (general and local) to be gained from implementing residential energy efficiency measures.:Acknowledgements . p.5 Abstract . p.7 Contents . p.13 List of Figures. p.17 List of Tables . p.19 List of Abbreviations . p.21 1 Introduction . p.27 1.1 Problem Statement . p.27 1.2 Rationale and Aims of the Research . p.31 1.3 Thesis Structure . p.34 2 The Construction Sector at the Heart of the Chile\'s Energy Challenges . p.37 2.1 The Chilean Construction Sector . p.37 2.1.1 Background and Regulatory Framework . p.38 2.1.2 Local Supply for Construction Services . p.41 2.1.3 Demand for Construction Services . p.47 2.2 The Private Housing Market in Santiago de Chile . p.50 2.2.1 Characterisation of the Housing Demand . p.51 2.2.2 Local Land Market and Housing Market Dynamics . p.60 2.2.3 The Role of the State . p.61 2.3 Chile's Energy Challenge . p.64 2.4 Raising Questions . p.69 3 Research Design and Methods . p.73 3.1 Research Design . p.73 3.2 Sampling and Sub-cases Selection . p.76 3.3 Primary Data Collection . p.81 3.4 Data Analysis . p.88 3.4.1 Transcription . p.88 3.4.2 Interview Analysis . p.90 3.4.3 Document Analysis . p.93 3.5 Identification of Key Stakeholders and Interview Partners . p.96 4 Energy Efficiency Standards for Residential Buildings . p.99 4.1 Defining Energy Efficiency – The Wider Context . p.100 4.2 Government-initiated Instruments – Building Codes and Energy Standards . p.103 4.2.1 Regulatory Instruments . p.104 4.2.2 Types of Regulations . p.109 4.2.3 Thermal Zoning . p.113 4.2.4 Information Instruments . p.115 4.2.5 Economic Incentive Schemes . p.121 4.2.6 Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Systems . p.123 4.2.7 Renewable Energy . p.125 4.3 Voluntary Instruments – Beyond the Building Codes . p.128 4.3.1 The Shift Towards Green Buildings . p.128 4.3.2 Green Building Certification Systems . p.131 4.4 Regulatory Instruments in the Chilean Context . p.148 4.4.1 Energy Efficiency in the National Energy Policy Making . p.148 4.4.2 The Institutional Framework . p.151 4.4.3 Energy Efficiency Standards in the Chilean Housing Sector . p.155 4.5 Voluntary Instruments in Santiago de Chile . p.161 4.5.1 Existing Certification Schemes . p.161 4.5.2 Public-private Partnership . p.164 4.6 Why Would Real Estate Companies Act Green? . p.166 5 The Adoption of Energy Efficiency in the Private Housing Market in Santiago de Chile . p.171 5.1 Energy Efficiency Adopters in the Private Housing Market . p.172 5.1.1 Innovators . p.174 5.1.2 Early Adopters . p.175 5.2 Motivations for Applying Residential Energy Efficiency Measures . p.179 5.2.1 Market Differentiation Strategies . p.180 5.2.2 Company Policies . p.182 5.2.3 Resource Efficiency . p.186 5.2.4 Government Incentive Schemes . p.191 6 Existing Residential Energy Efficiency Strategies . p.195 6.1 Passive Design Strategies . p.196 6.2 Active Design Strategies . p.208 6.3 Public-Private Partnership . p.212 7 Barriers to Implementing Residential Energy Efficiency Strategies . p.217 7.1 Market Barriers . p.218 7.2 Organizational Barriers . p.226 7.3 Institutional Barriers . p.229 7.4 Behavioural Barriers . p.231 7.5 Central Challenges for the Adoption of Energy Efficiency . p.235 8 Discussion of the Results and Implications . p.239 8.1 Summary of Findings . p.239 8.2 Discussion and Implications . p.245 8.3 Recommendations . p.250 8.4 Further Research . p.257 References . p.261 Annex . p.279
This report provides an overview of the challenges and opportunities in addressing road safety in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region. It presents information on the size, characteristics, and causes of the problem; presents evidence on the effectiveness of measures that countries world-wide have adopted to improve road safety; briefly describes current international road safety policy; and discusses a range of strategies and actions that could be undertaken by the World Bank in coordination and partnership with the World Health Organization (WHO), multilateral development banks, other international agencies and donors, as well as with private and civil society institutions. A primary audience of this report is internal-particularly managers and staff of the World Bank working in the transport, health, education, and governance sectors, to raise awareness about the multisectoral nature of the road safety challenge and of effective options to address it. It proposes ways that the World Bank might engage more to support ECA countries in tackling this issue, working in partnership with other international agencies and donors. The secondary audience is external policymakers, senior analysts, program managers, and their advisers in the governments of ECA countries, private sector officials, and civil society and international organizations working in this field. The goal is to support discussion on appropriate choices and instruments for advancing the road safety agenda as a top development priority over the short and medium term.
Bodenerosion durch Wasser ist ein ubiquitäres Problem, dass sowohl die landwirtschaftliche Produktivität vermindert, Bodenfunktionen einschränkt und auch in anderen Umweltkompartimenten schädliche Auswirkungen haben kann. Oberflächengewässer sind durch die mit Bodenerosion einhergehende Belastung durch Sediment, sedimentgebundenen und gelösten Nährstoffen sowie anderen Schadstoffen besonders betroffen. Das Wissen über Erosionsprozesse und Sedimentfrachten hat daher große Bedeutung für den Schutz der Güter Boden und Wasser und darüber hinaus eine ökonomische Bedeutung. Generell kann innerhalb eines Hanges oder Einzugsgebietes von einer Zone der Erosion, des Transports und der Sedimentation ausgegangen werden. Jedoch führen Abflussbildungsprozesse und rauhigkeits- bzw. topographiebeeinflusste Abflusskonzentration zu einer individuellen Differenzierung. Räumliche und zeitliche Prozessdiskontinuitäten oder Konnektivitäten und Schwellenwerte modifizieren die Erosions- und Sedimentaustragssituation in einem Einzugsgebiet darüber hinaus. Die Landschaftstrukturelemente Relief und Boden kontrollieren demnach über die Bodenfeuchtedifferenzierung im entscheidenden Maße die Abflussbildung und Sedimentfracht in einem Einzugsgebiet. Obwohl in den gemäßigten und kühlen Klimaregionen ein großer Teil der Abflussbildung im Winter stattfindet und von Bodenfrost sowie Schneeschmelzen geprägt sein kann, ist über die Prozesse und die Größe der Sediment- und Nährstoffausträge bei solchen winterlichen Randbedingungen nur wenig bekannt. Systematische Untersuchungen existieren vor allem für Norwegen und Russland. Dieses Defizit spiegelt sich auch in den vorhandenen Modellansätzen zur Abbildung der Bodenerosion und der Abschätzung von Sedimentausträgen aus Einzugsgebieten wider. Zum einen werden in der Regel weder Schneedeckenaufbau bzw. -schmelze noch die Veränderungen des Bodenwasserflusses bei Bodenfrost berücksichtigt. Zum anderen werden die Erosivität des Schneeschmelzabflusses und die Beeinflussungen der Bodenerodibilität, z.B. durch Frost-Tau Zyklen, nicht hinreichend wiedergegeben. Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist es daher, auf der Analyse von Daten aus einem deutschen und einem russischen Untersuchungseinzugsgebiet aufbauend, die wichtigsten Prozesse und Größen der Abflussbildung und Stoffausträge bei winterlichen Rahmenbedingungen zu charakterisieren und in einem Modellsystem umzusetzen. Die weitergehende Anwendung dieses Modellsystems dient der Interpretation räumlicher Heterogenitäten und zeitlicher Variabilitäten sowie der Auswirkungen von klimatischen- und Landnutzungsänderungen auf den Sedimentaustrag der beiden Untersuchungseinzugsgebiete. Das 1.44 km² große Einzugsgebiet Schäfertal liegt im östlichen Unterharz. Über den Grauwacken und Tonschiefern haben sich aus einem periglazialen Decklagenkomplex Braun- und Parabraunerden entwickelt, die ackerbaulich mit einer Wintergetreide-Raps Fruchtfolge genutzt werden. In der Tiefenlinie dominieren hydromorph überprägte Böden mit Wiesennutzung. Das Klima weist bei einer Jahresmitteltemperatur von 6.8°C und 680 mm Jahresniederschlagssumme eine geringe kontinentale Überprägung auf. Neben langjährigen umfangreichen hydro-meteorologischen Messungen finden seit mehreren Jahren Untersuchungen zum Sediment- und Nährstoffautrag statt. Eine regelmäßige zweiwöchentliche Beprobung des Abflusses am Gebietsauslass wird durch eine automatisierte Hochwasserprobenahme vor allem bei Schneeschmelzen ergänzt. Neben der Sedimentkonzentration werden unter anderem Phosphor und gelöster organischer Kohlenstoff nach Standardmethoden bestimmt. Auch im russischen Zielgebiet Lubazhinkha liegt das Hauptaugenmerk auf der Charakterisierung der Abflussbildung und der Stoffausträge bei den jährlich auftretenden Schneeschmelzen. Das Einzugsgebiet liegt ungefähr 100 km südlich von Moskau im Übergangsbereich der südlichen Taiga zur Waldsteppe. Die insgesamt 18.8 km² werden zur Hälfte landwirtschaftlich und zu einem Drittel forstwirtschaftlich genutzt. Die aktuelle räumliche Differenzierung der Nutzung in diesem Gebiet wird durch die reliefbedingte Kappung und hydromorphe Überprägung der vorherrschenden grauen Waldböden bestimmt. Das Klima und die Hydrologie sind durch Schneedeckenaufbau und –schmelze, bei einer Jahresdurchschnittstemperatur von 4.4°C und einer Jahresniederschlagsmenge von 560 mm, geprägt. Zur Erfassung des Stoffaustrags werden Hochwasserprobenahmen am Gebietsauslass sowie an den beiden wichtigsten Zuflüssen genommen und neben Sediment- und Nährstoffkonzentrationen weitere physikalische und chemische Parameter bestimmt. Die Auswertung der Daten des Schäfertals zeigen für den Untersuchungszeitraum eine deutliche Dominanz der Hochwasserereignisse, die durch Schneeschmelzen hervorgerufen werden. Einzugsgebietsbedingungen mit gefrorenem Boden führen zu einer Modifizierung der Abflussentwicklung vor allem im ansteigenden Teil des gemessenen Hydrographen durch Auftreten von schnellen oberflächen- oder oberflächennahen Abflüssen. Der Spitzenabfluss bei den acht zur Interpretation herangezogenen Hochwasserereignissen variiert zwischen 30 und 270 l s-1, bei Abflussmengen von 1-50 mm. Die am Gebietsauslass ermittelten maximalen Sedimentkonzentrationen liegen für die beiden Ereignisse ohne gefrorenen Boden bei unter 650 mg l-1 und damit deutlich unter den bis zu 6000 mg l-1 bei teilweise oder ganz gefrorenen Böden im Schäfertal. Lediglich bei einem Ereignis mit Niederschlag und ungefrorenem Boden treten hohe Sedimentkonzentrationen auf, die auf Gerinnepflegemaßnahmen und dadurch leichte Mobilisierbarkeit von Material zurückzuführen sind. Dementsprechend schwanken die Sedimentfrachten der Einzelereignisse und erreichen bis zu 17 t. Die wichtigste Steuergröße ist dabei die Ausbildung erosiven Abflusses auf den Hängen durch eine Verminderung der hydraulischen Leitfähigkeit bei gefrorenen Böden. Der Vergleich der Sedimentkonzentrationen der Hochwasserereignisse mit der zweiwöchentlichen Grundbeprobung verdeutlicht, ebenso wie Hysteresekurven der Einzelereignisse, die unterschiedlichen Dynamiken der Austragssituationen. Während die durch Bodenfrost geprägten Ereignisse ein gegen den Uhrzeigersinn verlaufendes Abfluss-Sedimentkonzentrationsverhältnis aufweisen, das auf eine Sedimentquelle auf den Hängen hinweist, sind die Hysteresekurven bei nicht gefrorenen Böden im Uhrzeigersinn orientiert. Eine Sedimentherkunft in Gerinnenähe oder den Gerinneböschungen selbst ist daher wahrscheinlich. Diese Annahmen werden auch durch eine differenzierte Phosphoranreicherungsrate im ausgetragenen Sediment bestätigt. Darüber hinaus kann teilweise eine ereignisinterne Dynamik beobachtet werden, die auf zeitliche Variabilität in der Abflussbildung und damit zusammenhängend, eine räumliche Heterogenität der Sedimentquellen belegt. Während im Untersuchungsgebiet Schäfertal ein mehrmaliges Auftreten von Schneeschmelzen innerhalb eines Winters möglich ist, kommt es im russischen Einzugsgebiet zu einem regelmäßigen Schneedeckenaufbau über den Winter hinweg und einer Schneeschmelze in der Regel im März oder in der ersten Aprilhälfte. Die Auswertung mehrjähriger Datenreihen belegt die Bedeutung der Schneeschmelze für die Abflussbildung und den Sedimentaustrag aus dem Untersuchungsgebiet Lubazhinkha. Für die drei zur Interpretation herangezogenen Schneeschmelzen liegt die Sedimentfracht zwischen 50 und 630 t bei deutlichen Unterschieden in den hydrologischen Rahmenbedingungen. Die ereignisbezogene Sedimentfracht von mindestens 0.3 t ha-1 liegt zwar über der für das Schäfertal ermittelten, befindet sich aber im Bereich der Werte, die in anderen Studien bei vergleichbaren Böden und Nutzungsformen bestimmt wurden. Eine detaillierte Analyse der Messwerte der Schneeschmelze im Jahr 2003 belegt eine Dynamik innerhalb dieses Einzelereignisses. Bei Sedimentkonzentrationen im Abfluss am Gebietsauslass von 6 bis 540 mg l-1 kommt es zu einer Sedimentfracht von ungefähr 190 t. Während die maximalen Konzentrationen von Sediment und Phosphor mit der Spitze des Abflusses einhergehen, liegt für DOC eine Verzögerung vor, die durch eine langsamere Schneeschmelze und Mobilisierung von DOC aus dem humusreichen Oberboden der Waldflächen ausgelöst wird. Eine Differenzierung der Abflusskomponenten ermöglicht eine weitergehende Interpretation der ereignisinternen Dynamik der Stoffquellen und Eintragspfade. Bei geringen Abflussmengen (< 2,5 mm d-1) findet ein Stoffeintrag überwiegend in gelöster Form über die Bodenwasserpassage und langsame Abflusskomponenten in den Vorfluter statt. Bei höheren Abflussmengen dominieren schnelle Abflusskomponenten bzw. Oberflächenabfluss, der zeitlich dynamisch unterschiedliche Stoffquellen mobilisiert. Neben diesen ereignisinternen treten interanuelle Variabilitäten auf, die durch witterungsbedingte Faktoren bestimmt werden. Wie im Schäfertal spielt auch im Lubazhinkhaeinzugsgebiet die Ausbildung von Bodenfrost und damit verbundene Veränderung der Infiltrationseigenschaften der Böden eine große Rolle. Das Schneewasseräquivalent, die Schneeschmelzdynamik und Bodenfrosteigenschaften, z.B. Eindringtiefe, sind die wichtigsten Steuergrößen. Die Variabilität dieser Randbedingungen führt zu einer hohen interannuellen Differenzierung der Abflussbildung und der Sedimentausträge. Für die Schneeschmelze 2004 kann so bei überdurchschnittlich hohen Wintertemperaturen und nur teilweise gefrorenen Böden sowie geringem Schneewasseräquivalent eine geringe Sedimentfracht ermittelt werden. Darüber hinaus verdeutlichen die Hysteresekurven der Sedimentkonzentrationen Unterschiede in der Sedimentquelle für die Einzeljahre, die von den oben genannten Rahmenbedingungen abhängen. Auf der Basis des Monitoring lassen sich für beide Einzugsgebiete die wichtigen abflussbildenden Prozesse charakterisieren und Einflussgrößen erfassen. Dem Bodenfrost und der Schneeschmelzdynamik kommen dabei übergeordnete Bedeutung zu. In beiden Gebieten werden bei winterlichen Rahmenbedingungen erhebliche Mengen an Sediment und Nährstoffen ausgetragen. Die Interpretation physikalischer bzw. chemischer Parameter des Abflusses ermöglicht darüber hinaus auch Aussagen über die zeitliche Variabilität und räumliche Heterogenität der Sedimentherkunftsräume. Aus den Erkenntnissen der Einzugsgebietsbeobachtung ergeben sich für einen Modellansatz verschiedenen Anforderungen, die vor allem die räumlich differenzierte Darstellung des Einflusses von Bodenfrost auf den Bodenwasserhaushalt sowie die Bodenerosion durch oberflächlich abfließendes Schneeschmelzwasser betreffen. Die Grundlage für das Modellsystem "IWAN" (Integrated Winter erosion And Nutrient load model) stellt das hydrologische Modell WASIM ETH Ver. 2 und das Stoffhaushaltsmodell AGNPS 5.0 dar. Die Verknüpfung dieser beiden auf Rasterzellen aufbauenden Modelle ermöglicht die Nutzung von kontinuierlichen, räumlich differenzierten Informationen zum Oberflächenabfluss für die Abschätzung der Bodenerosion. Durch diese Schnittstelle wird die sehr hohe Parametersensitivität des SCS-CN Verfahrens in AGNPS durch geringere Einzelsensitivitäten verschiedener Parameter des Bodenwasserhaushaltes in WASIM ersetzt und gleichzeitig eine plausible, prozessbasierte räumliche Abflussbildung berechnet. Durch die Implementierung eines Moduls zur Abschätzung der Bodentemperatur in WASIM ist zusätzlich die Grundlage für eine weitergehende Verbesserung der Abflussbildung bei winterlichen Randbedingungen gelegt. Durch das Modul wird die Oberbodentemperatur aus Werten der Lufttemperatur unter Einbeziehung der Exposition und der Landnutzung auf der Basis einer Polynomanpassung abgeschätzt. Bei einer modellierten Schneedecke von mehr als 5 mm Schneewasseräquivalent wird die berechnete Bodentemperatur des Vortages übernommen. Bei Bodentemperaturen unter dem Gefrierpunkt wird darüber hinaus die gesättigte hydraulische Leitfähigkeit des Bodens auf Null herabgesetzt, so dass im Zuge der Schneeschmelze zunächst das noch freie Porenvolumen aufgefüllt wird und danach Oberflächenabflussbildung beginnt. Für das Schäfertal liegt die Güte der Anpassung der Bodentemperatur bei Korrelationskoeffizienten von 0.62 bis 0.81 und für das Lubazhinkhaeinzugsgebiet bei Werten von 0.82 bis 0.91. Die räumlich und zeitlich differenzierte Oberflächenabflussinformation dient als Grundlage einer neu entwickelten Berechnung der Rillenerosion bei Schneeschmelzen, die den dafür nicht geeigneten empirischen Ansatz in AGNPS ersetzt. Basierend auf der Grundannahme eines dreieckigen, nicht durch Frost in der Eintiefung beeinträchtigten Rillenprofils und, da wassergesättigt, nichtkohesiver Bodeneigenschaften wird für jede Rasterzelle eine Rille simuliert. Die Erodibilität des Bodens wird als Funktion von Wurzelparametern und des Durchmessers der wasserstabilen Aggregate erfasst. Die Scherkraft des Schneeschmelzeabflusses in der Rille wird in Abhängigkeit von der Oberflächenrauhigkeit und dem Aggregatdurchmesser betrachtet und darauf aufbauend in einem Impulsstromansatz die erodierte Bodenmenge berechnet. In Verbindung mit dem durch das modifizierte WASIM berechneten und gerouteten Oberflächenabfluss ergibt sich so ein räumlich differenziertes Bild der Bodenerosion. Das Modellsystem IWAN beinhaltet neben der Erosionsberechnung ein eingabefenstergesteuertes Menü zur Datenkonvertierung und zum Prä- sowie Postprozessing. Die Ergebnisse der Anwendung des Modellsystems für die beiden Einzugsgebiete belegen, dass sowohl die entscheidenden Prozesse der Abflussbildung als auch des Sedimentaustrags wiedergegeben werden. Für das Schäfertal wurde für die Kalibrierungsjahre 1994 bis 1995 eine Modellierungsgüte von R2 0.94 bzw. 0.91 erzielt. Mit Ausnahmen der Schneeschmelze im Jahr 1996 werden die Episoden hohen Abflusses in den Jahren 1996 bis 2003 mit dem kalibrierten Parametersatz gut wiedergegeben und das witterungsbedingte Trockenfallen im Sommer zufriedenstellend dargestellt. Auf dieser Basis wird für die experimentell erfassten und diskutierten Schneeschmelzereignisse das Gesamtabflussvolumen dieser Ereignisse mit hoher Güte abgebildet. Die räumlich differenziert berechnete Bodenfeuchte und Bodenfrostvorkommen bedingen einen variablen Anteil des Oberflächenabflusses am Gesamtabfluss. Für das Schneeschmelzerosionsmodul hat das Abflussvolumen ebenso wie die Hangneigung und Abflusslänge eine positive Sensitivität. Aufgrund von Parameterkombinationen und nichtlineare Algorithmen kann es jedoch vor allem für die Wurzelparameter und den Manning Koeffizienten zu differenzierten Sensitivitätsentwicklungen kommen. Für die Simulation der Erosion im Schäfertal wurde daher zunächst auf einen Parametersatz zurückgegriffen, der auf der Basis von Erosionsparzellenversuchen kalibriert wurde. Die Mittelwerte der berechneten Erosion liegen zwischen 0.0006 und 0.96 t ha-1 für die sechs gemessenen Einzelereignisse im Schäfertal. Die Medianwerte und hohen Standardabweichungen belegen jedoch, dass insgesamt Zellen mit geringen Erosionswerten überwiegen. Die Ereignisse mit gefrorenen Böden weisen eine signifikant höhere Erosion auf. Unterschiede in der Erosion treten bei gleichen Gesamtabflussvolumen wie z.B. bei den Ereignissen vom 20.01.2001 und 26.02.2002 durch differenzierte Abflusskonzentration auf dem nord- bzw. südexponierten Hang auf. Neben einer Überprüfung der Plausibilität der berechneten Werte, werden die räumlichen Verteilungsmuster durch Geländeaufnahmen bestätigt. Die Anpassung der berechneten Sedimentfracht an die gemessenen Werte erfolgte durch die Kalibrierung des Manning Koeffizienten für ein Ereignis. Die simulierte Sedimentfracht ist in einigen Hangfußbereichen aufgrund der Abflussakkumulation besonders hoch und erreicht für den Gebietsauslass Werte zwischen 0.0 und 13.84 t. Mit der Ausnahme des Ereignisses vom 26.02.2002 ist die Sedimentfracht leicht unterschätzt, so dass sich in der Summe für die drei Winterhalbjahre 2001 bis 2003 ein Gesamtfehler von 11 t ergibt. Die Differenz zwischen der simulierten und beobachteten Sedimentfracht ist für den 26.12.2002 am größten. Als mögliche Ursache für die Abweichungen der berechneten zu den gemessenen Werten, wird die zeitliche Variabilität und räumliche Heterogenität der Oberflächenrauhigkeit, vor allem in Hinblick auf Bodenbearbeitung und Bodenfrosteinflüssen, diskutiert. Die generelle Verteilung der Sedimentquellen, Transportwege und Übertrittstellen vom Hang ins Gewässer stimmt mit Geländebeobachtungen überein. Eine quantitative Überprüfung der räumlichen Ergebnisse auf der Einzelereignisebene ist für das Schäfertal jedoch nicht möglich. Für das Lubazhinkhaeinzugsgebiet können zwei Parametersätze für das Kalibrierungsjahr 2004 identifiziert werde, die eine zufriedenstellende Modellierungsgüte für das hydrologische Modell erreichen. Obwohl einer dieser Parametersätze die Schneeschmelzsituationen und Maximalabflüsse gut darstellt, sind die Areale mit Oberflächenabflussbildung innerhalb des Einzugsgebietes nicht plausibel verteilt. Im Gegensatz dazu werden die lateralen Wasserflüsse und damit die prozessbestimmende Bodenfeuchteverteilung durch den anderen Parametersatz besser abgebildet. Es kommt jedoch zu einer Überschätzung der Spitzenabflüsse der Schneeschmelzhochwasser für die Validierungsjahre 2003 und 2005. Die auf der Basis der Messwerte erkannten Unterschiede zwischen den Einzeljahren werden ebenso dargestellt wie die differenzierte Abflussbildung innerhalb einer Schneeschmelzsituation. Neben Oberflächenabflussbildung auf den flachen Kuppenbereichen und auf Sättigungsflächen in den Talböden, wird auch die beobachtete verzögerte Abflussbildung unter Wald durch das Modell berücksichtigt. Bei zehn Tagen mit Oberflächenabfluss innerhalb der drei Schneeschmelzen 2003 bis 2005 mit Oberflächenabflussvolumen von 0.3 bis 24.1 mm d-1 werden durch das Modellsystem IWAN Erosionssummen von 10 bis 280 t d-1 simuliert. Bei einem variablen Flächenanteil von ca. 5 bis 46 % des Gesamtgebietes, auf dem Erosion stattfindet, bewegen sich die Werte der effektiven Erosion bei 0.1 bis 0.32 t ha-1 für die Einzeltage und 0.44 bis 0.92 t ha-1 für die mehrtägigen Schneeschmelzen. Die am Gebietsauslass simulierte Sedimentfracht liegt zwischen 6.7 und 365.8 t pro Tag und summiert sich auf 246.2 t für die Schneeschmelze 2003. Im Jahr 2004 werden 99.9 t und im Jahr 2005 sogar 757.9 t Austrag simuliert. Für das Kalibrierungsjahr 2004 kommt es zu einer Überschätzung der Sedimentfracht im Vergleich zur gemessenen von lediglich 10 t bzw. 12%. Für die Schneeschmelze im Jahr 2003 liegt die Abweichung mit diesem Parametersatz bei -9 %. Für das Jahr 2005 fällt die Berechnung mit einem Fehler von 33 % nicht so gut aus. Insgesamt führen Schneeschmelztage mit geringer simulierter Erosionsmenge zu einer zusätzlichen Mobilisierung von Sediment aus dem Gerinne und umgekehrt, hohe Erosionsmengen zu einer Deposition von Material auf den Wald- und Grünlandflächen und im Gerinne selbst. Hohe Sedimentfrachten werden daher vor allem für die Talflanken und die kerbtalähnlichen Talanfänge berechnet. Durch die räumliche Differenzierung der Abfluss- und Erosionsprozesse kommt es zu signifikanten Unterschieden bei der berechneten Sedimentfracht für die beiden Teileinzugsgebiete. Bei Schneeschmelztagen mit Abflussbildung unter Wald wird aufgrund des höheren Waldanteils im Lubazhinkhateilgebiet eine höhere Sedimentmenge ausgetragen. Die Unterschiede im Gerinneverhalten und zwischen den Teileinzugsgebieten verdeutlichen die insgesamt hohe Prozessrepräsentanz der Modellergebnisse. Das Modellsystem IWAN bildet für beide Einzugsgebiete mit hoher Plausibilität die räumliche und zeitliche Dynamik der Oberflächenabflussbildung während der Schneeschmelze und die damit verbundenen Erosionsprozesse ab. Der Modellansatz stellt somit eine Möglichkeit zwischen Modellergebnisaggregierung für den Gebietsauslass und aufwendiger Geländebeobachtung bzw. –messungen dar. Die prozessbeschreibende Modellierung mit zufriedenstellender Güte sowohl für das Schäfertal als auch für das Lubazhinkhaeinzugsgebiet stellt die Grundlage für die Berechnung von Klima- oder Landnutzungsszenarien dar. Eine Auswertung der bestehenden langjährigen Datenreihe aus dem Schäfertal bestätigt zunächst den allgemeinen Trend zur Erwärmung vor allem im Winterhalbjahr. Demgegenüber lässt der instrumentenbedingte Fehler bei der Niederschlagmessung keine Ableitung eines Trends aus den vorhandenen Daten zu. Aus der meteorologischen Datenreihe des Schäfertals wurden insgesamt 13 Jahre mit definierter Abweichung von +2.5 bis -2.5 °C und fünfmal +0.5 °C von der durchschnittlichen Winterlufttemperatur (Jd 330-90) gegenüber dem langjährigen Wintermittel ausgewählt. Im Gegensatz zu Wettergeneratoren werden dadurch eine Kombinationen aus Lufttemperatur und Niederschlag erfasst, die typischen Witterungssituationen entsprechen. Die Niederschlagssummen für den Winterzeitraum dieser Szenariojahre liegen zwischen -45 % und + 75 % gegenüber den langjährigen Mittelwerten. Die Modellergebnisse belegen die große Bedeutung der Witterungssituationen für die Abflussbildung in der Art, dass eine erhöhte Niederschlagsumme nicht zwingend auch eine überdurchschnittliche Abflussmenge hervorruft. Schneedeckendynamik und Bodenfrost sind die prägenden Elemente. Die Anzahl der Schneetage und die Dauer einer Schneeperiode liegt bei negativen Temperaturabweichungen deutlich über den Szenarien mit positiver Abweichung. Insgesamt zeigen die Ergebnisse der hydrologischen Simulation für die Szenarien, dass sowohl eine starke Abweichung nach oben oder unten vom bisherigen Durchschnitt vermehrt zu Oberflächenabflussbildung führt. Die Erosionssummen der Szenariotage mit Oberflächenabfluss variieren zwischen 4 und 141 t d-1 und stehen aufgrund des nicht veränderten Parametersatzes in direkter Abhängigkeit zum Abflussvolumen. Die berechneten Erosionssummen für Situationen ohne Bodenfrost fallen generell geringer aus, befinden sich aber wie auch die Ereignisse mit Bodenfrost im Wertebereich der Referenzereignisse. Im Bereich der Referenzereignisse liegen auch die Sedimentfrachten mit 0.03 bis 13.15 t d-1. Eine erhöhte Variabilität ist zu erwarten, wenn die Veränderungen der Vegetationsperioden und der Fruchtfolgen in den Modellansatz aufgenommen würden. Eine Betrachtung der Erosionsummen und Sedimentfrachten nicht auf Basis von Tageswerten sondern von Schneeschmelzereignissen zeigt deutlich, dass die Klimaszenarien mit hohen Abweichungen von den Normwerten auch erhöhte Gesamtstoffausträge verursachen. Im russischen Lubazhinkhaeinzugsgebiet führen die Transformationsprozesse im Landwirtschaftssektor zu tiefgreifenden Änderungen der Landnutzung. Auf einer Analyse der Entwicklung in den letzten 15 Jahren aufbauend, kann für das Gebiet von einer deutlichen Modifikation im Verhältnis Grünland, Acker und Wald ausgegangen werden. Diese Dynamik spiegelt sich in den fünf Szenarien wider, die flächenspezifische Änderungen vorsehen. Die Variationen reichen von einem Szenario, in dem ein ausländischer Investor die landwirtschaftliche Nutzfläche auf alle geeigneten Böden ausdehnt, über eine Ausdehnung der Waldflächen in einem laufenden staatlichen Waldschutzprogramm bis hin zum Aufbau kleinbäuerlicher Strukturen und lokale Vermarktung der Produkte durch sich entwickelnden Tourismus. Die Gesamtabflussmenge der Szenarien liegt zwischen 276.4 und 293.3 mm für die Simulationsperiode 2003 bis 2005. In Abhängigkeit vom Waldflächenanteil und der damit verbundenen Evapotranspiration treten im Vergleich zum Ist-Zustands des Referenzszenarios nur geringe positive oder negative Abweichungen auf. Im Unterschied dazu treten bei der Betrachtung der Oberflächabflussentwicklung für die drei Schneeschmelzperioden relativ große Abweichungen bis zu über 20 mm auf. Diese Unterschiede sind am deutlichsten in den durch Bodenfrost und hohes Schneewasseräquivalent ausgezeichneten Jahre 2003 und 2005 für das Szenario mit dem größten Waldflächen- und Grünlandanteil. Mit wenigen Ausnahmen führen die Szenarien zu einer Erhöhung der simulierten Sedimentfracht am Gebietsauslass. Die Ergebnisse belegen darüber hinaus, dass eine Verminderung der Erosion auf den Hängen allein nicht zu einer Frachtreduzierung führen muss, da bei geringer Sedimentbelastung im Gerinne Material aufgenommen werden kann. Ein flächenspezifischer Vergleich zweier Szenarien belegt die Bedeutung der Verortung der Nutzungsänderungen innerhalb des Einzugsgebietes und der damit einhergehenden Konnektivität von abflussbildenden Arealen und Erosionsflächen zum Gerinne hin. Die Szenarioergebnisse weisen auf die steigende Bedeutung von Extremereignissen hin, die im Zuge des Klimawandels zu erwarten sind. Ebenso wird die Verknüpfung von Hang- und Gerinneprozessen als Attribut eines Einzugsgebietes unterstrichen, das bei Managementmaßnahmen beachtet werden muss. Insgesamt belegen die Ergebnisse für beide Untersuchungsgebiete, dass das Modellsystem IWAN nach einer Kabibrierung erfolgreich zur Abschätzung von möglichen zukünftigen Sedimentquellen und Sedimentausträgen eingesetzt werden kann. Weitergehender Forschungsbedarf besteht in der Frage der Übertragbarkeit des Monitoringansatzes in Naturräume mit anderen, zum Teil komplexeren hydrologischen Einzugsgebietsreaktionen und darauf aufbauenden Stoffausträgen und Austragspfaden. Darüber hinaus kann im Modellsystem IWAN eine Verbesserung durch eine Berechnung der Rillenausbildung auf dem Hang sowie eine Modifikation der Sedimenttransportberechnung erzielt werden. Bei einer Übertragung auf andere Einzugsgebiete sollte eine umfassende Sensitivitätsanalyse und Ergebnisunsicherheitsbetrachtung vor allem in Hinblick auf die Kopplung von Teilmodellen innerhalb des Modellsystems erfolgen.:Gliederung Gliederung V Liste der Abbildungen VII Liste der Tabellen XII 1 Einleitung und Fragestellung 3 1.1 Bodenerosion und Sedimentfracht in Einzugsgebieten 3 1.1.1 Abflussbildung, Bodenerosion und Sedimentaustrag 3 1.1.2 Winterliche Situationen 5 1.2 Modellierungsansätze 13 1.2.1 Modelle und Modellkopplungen 13 1.2.2 Probleme der Modellanwendung 17 1.3 Wissensdefizite und Zielstellung 23 2 Untersuchungsgebiete und Methoden 25 2.1 Schäfertal 25 2.1.1 Naturraum 25 2.1.2 Methoden 28 2.2 Lubazhinkha 31 2.2.1 Naturraum 31 2.2.2 Methoden 36 2.3 Datenverarbeitung 38 3 Ergebnisse und Diskussion des Monitorings in den Einzugsgebieten 41 3.1 Schäfertal 41 3.1.1 Abflussbildung 41 3.1.2 Stoffausträge bei Hochwasserereignissen 45 3.2 Lubazhinkha 54 3.2.1 Bedeutung der Schneeschmelze für den Stoffaustrag 54 3.2.2 Stoffdynamik während der Schneeschmelze 57 4 Modellentwicklung 69 4.1 Zielstellungen der Modellmodifikation und -entwicklung 69 4.2 WASIM-AGNPS 70 4.2.1 Wasserhaushaltsmodell WASIM 70 4.2.2 Stofftransportmodell AGNPS 72 4.2.3 Schnittstelle WASIM-AGNPS 74 4.3 Modifikation von WASIM für winterliche Abflussbildung 76 4.3.1 Grundlagen 76 4.3.2 Datenerhebung 77 4.3.3 Sensorauswahl 77 4.3.4 Ergebnisse 79 4.3.5 Empirisches Modell 82 4.3.6 Bodentemperaturteilmodul 83 4.3.7 Anpassung mit Daten aus dem Einzugsgebiet Lubazhinkha 85 4.4 Schneeschmelzerosionsmodell (SMEM) 87 4.4.1 Rillenprofil 87 4.4.2 Bodenerosion 90 4.4.3 Technische Umsetzung 96 4.5 Modellsystem IWAN 97 4.5.1 Schnittstelle SMEM-AGNPS 97 4.5.2 Graphische Benutzeroberfläche 99 5 Modellergebnisse und Diskussion 105 5.1 Schäfertal 105 5.1.1 Bodentemperatur 105 5.1.2 Hydrologie 108 5.1.3 Schneeschmelzerosion 113 5.1.4 Sedimentfracht 120 5.2 Lubazhinkha 126 5.2.1 Hydrologie 126 5.2.2 Schneeschmelzerosion 133 5.2.3 Sedimentfracht 137 6 Szenariorechnungen 143 6.1 Klimaszenarien Schäfertal 143 6.1.1 Szenarienauswahl 143 6.1.2 Modellergebnisse und Diskussion 148 6.2 Landnutzungsszenarien Lubazhinkha 158 6.2.1 Szenarienauswahl 158 6.2.2 Modellergebnisse und Diskussion 163 7 Schlussfolgerungen 169 7.1 Einzugsgebiete 169 7.2 Modellsystem IWAN 172 7.3 Szenarien 176 7.4 Forschungsbedarf 178 8 Zusammenfassung 179 9 Summary 189 10 Literatur 199 Appendix 207 Abkürzungen Modellübersicht Quellcode (VBA) ; Soil erosion by water is a ubiquitous problem that impairs the agricultural productivity, diminishes soil functionality and may harmfully affect neighbouring environmental compartments. Surface waters are especially affected by the sediment, sediment bounded and soluble nutrients as well as pollutants mobilised by soil erosion. The knowledge about erosion processes and sediment loads is of high relevance for the protection of the soil and water and has moreover an economic dimension. Generally, a slope or catchment can be divided into three zones: erosion, transport and sedimentation. However, runoff generating processes and roughness or topography triggered runoff concentration lead to an individual differentiation. Furthermore, spatial and temporal discontinuities of processes or connectivities and thresholds modify the erosion and sediment characteristics. Relief and soil as structural elements of a catchment control accordingly the soil moisture differentiation and in an essential way the runoff generation and sediment load. In temperate and cold climates an important portion of runoff is generated in winter and can be affected by soil frost and snowmelt. However, only little knowledge exists about the processes and dimension of sediment and nutrient emissions under these wintry conditions. Systematic research exists particularly in Russia and Norway. The related deficits are also reflected in existing model approaches to estimate soil erosion and sediment fields from catchments. On the one hand neither the snow development or snow melt nor the modification of the soil water flow in case of frozen soil is considered. On the other hand the erosivity of the snow melt runoff and the modification of the soil erodibility through, for example frost-thaw cycles, is adequately reflected. It is the main focus of the presented work to identify, by analysing data from a German and a Russian catchment, the dominant processes and triggers of runoff generation and diffuse pollution under winter conditions. The results are implemented into a model system which is utilised to analyse spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of processes and to estimate the effects of climate and land use change on sediment loads in the two target areas. The 1.44 km² catchment Schaefertal is located in the eastern lower Harz Mountains approx. 150 km SW of Berlin, Germany. Cambisols and Luvisolos have developed from periglacial slope deposits on greywacke and argillaceous shale. These slopes are utilised agriculturally with a crop rotation of mainly winter grain and canola. The thalweg is dominated by hydromorphic soils and pasture. The climate is slightly continental with an annual average temperature of 6.8°C and 680 mm total annual precipitation. In addition to long-time hydro-meteorological measurements, since several years research into sediment and nutrient emissions is conducted. A routine biweekly sampling of the runoff at the catchment outlet is supplemented by automatic high flow sampling especially during snow melt flows. Besides suspended sediment concentration, phosphorus species and dissolved organic carbon are sampled and analysed following standard methods. Also in the Russian catchment Lubazhinkha the main focus is the characterisation of runoff generation and sediment/nutrient transport during snowmelt events. The catchment is located about 100 km south of Moscow, Russia in the transition zone from southern Taiga to forest steppe. The area of 18.8 km² is utilised half by agriculture and one third by forestry. The recent spatial differentiation of this land use is triggered by the relief determined erosive shortening and hydromorphic characteristics of the dominant grey forest soils. Climate and hydrology are dominated by snow cover accumulation and snow melt; annual average temperature is 4.4°C and the annual precipitation sum is 560 mm. High flow samples are taken at the catchment outlet behind a small dam and at the two most important tributaries to characterise mobilisation processes and the sediment and nutrient concentrations. The interpretation of data from the Schaefertal demonstrate for the period of investigation the importance of high flow situations that are caused by snow melt. Catchment conditions characterised by frozen soils lead to a modification of the measured hydrograph, especially through the occurrence of fast surface or near-surface components. The peak flow of the eight high flow events which are employed for interpretation vary between 30 and 270 l s-1, with total runoff volumes in a range from 1 to 50 mm. The sediment concentrations that are observed at the catchment outlet are below 650 mg l-1 for the two events without frozen soil and therewith distinct below the maximum of around 6000 mg l-1 for events with frozen or partly frozen soil conditions. Solely, one event with rainfall on unfrozen soil is characterised by high sediment concentration which is caused by channel maintenances and easy mobilisation of material from the channel banks. According to this, the sediment yields vary for the single events and achieve up to 17 t. The most important trigger is the generation of erosive surface runoff on the slopes by reduction of the hydraulic conductivity of the frozen soils. The comparison of the sediment concentrations of high flow events and the biweekly sampling as well as hysteresis curves of the single events clarify the differing dynamics of sediment export situations. The soil frost affected events show an anti-clockwise direction of the discharge-sediment relationship which points to a sediment source on the slope, whereas the hysteresis curves of unfrozen soil conditions are oriented clockwise. For these events a sediment source near the channel or the channel bank is probable. These assumptions are also supported by a differentiated phosphorus enrichment ratio in the exported sediment. Furthermore, a dynamic in the progress of the single events can be observed which is caused by the temporal variability of the runoff generation and confirms the related spatial heterogeneity of sediment sources. Contrary to the Schaefertal with several snow melt events per year, in the Russian catchment the snow cover is accumulated over the entire winter and one snow melt flood occurs in March or during the first half of April. The interpretation of multiannual data document the importance of the spring snow melts for the runoff generation and sediment export from the catchment Lubazhinkha. The sediment yield of three observed snow melt events varies between 50 and 630 t in dependency on the hydrological conditions. The event related sediment load of at least 0.3 t ha-1 is above the values that were measured in the Schaefertal but in the range of other studies with comparable soils and land use. Detailed analyses of the measurements of the snow melt in spring 2003 document the dynamic within one event. A sediment concentration at the catchment outlet from 6 to 540 mg l-1 led to a total event sediment yield of 190 t. The maximum concentrations of sediment and phosphorus peak with the discharge. In contrast, the concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is delayed compared to the runoff peak due to the slow snow melt development under forest stands and mobilisation of DOC from the organic rich topsoil of these forest areas. A differentiation of runoff components allows a further interpretation of event specific dynamic of sediment sources and transport pathways. In case of low discharge (< 2.5 mm d-1) the material transfer is dominated by dissolved forms and enters the channel passing the soil as slow runoff. Fast runoff components or surface runoff dominate situations with higher amounts of discharge in which sediment and nutrient sources are mobilised with temporal dynamic. Besides this event internal dynamic inter-annual variability exists that is a result of weather conditions in the specific winter. Similar to the Schaefertal, the development of frozen soils and the related modification of infiltration characteristics of the soils play an important role in the Lubazhinkha catchment. Other important triggers are snow water equivalent, snow melt dynamic and specific soil frost characteristics, i.e. depth of penetration. The variability of these boundary conditions led to a high inter-annual differentiation of runoff generation and sediment loads. Thus, for the snowmelt 2004 with above average winter air temperatures and only partly frozen soils, as well as low snow water equivalent, a comparable low sediment load was observed. In addition, the hysteresis curves of the discharge-sediment concentration relationship indicate differences in the sediment sources for the single snow melt events which are in dependency of the abovementioned factors. For both catchments the established monitoring system and selected parameters provide an insight into runoff generating processes and relevant triggers. Occurrences of soil frost and snow melt dynamics are most important factors. Wintry conditions led to high sediment and nutrient yields in both catchments. The interpretation of physical and chemical parameters of discharge allows the identification of spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of sediment source areas. Several demands for a model approach arise from these findings of catchment monitoring which are especially related to the spatial differentiated estimation of surface runoff generating areas and soil erosion through snow melt water. The basis for the model system "IWAN" (Integrated Winter erosion And Nutrient load model) is the hydrological model WASIM ETH Ver.2 and the nutrient load model AGNPS 5.0. The linking of these two raster-based models facilitates the utilisation of continuous, spatial differentiated information for surface runoff to estimate soil erosion. By this, the high parameter sensitivity of the SCS-CN approach in AGNPS is replaced with sensitivities distributed among different parameters of the soil water calculation in WASIM and the concurrent calculation of a plausible process based spatial differentiated runoff generation. The implementation of a module to estimate the soil temperature forms the basis for an improved calculation of soil water flows and runoff generation under winter conditions. This module calculates the topsoil temperature based on values of air temperature and considers exposition and land use. The calculated soil temperature of the previous day is assumed in case of a snow cover of more than 5 mm water equivalent. The saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil is set to zero if the calculated soil temperature drops below freezing and surface runoff begins after the water free soil pore volume is filled up. The goodness of fit for the Schaefertal shows a correlation coefficient of 0.62 to 0.81 and for the Lubazhinkha catchment values in a range between 0.82 and 0.91. The spatial and temporal differentiated information of surface runoff is fundamental to a new developed calculation of rill erosion during snow melt situations which replaces the empirical erosion estimation of AGNPS. One rill for each raster cell is simulated on the assumption of a non-cohesive soil through water saturation and that soil frost does not hinder the deepening of the triangular rill profile. The soil erodibilty is a function of root parameters and diameter of water stable aggregates. The erosivity of the snow melt runoff in the rill is calculated in dependency of surface roughness and soil aggregate diameter. A spatial differentiated estimation of soil erosion is possible in combination with the routed surface runoff from the modified WASIM. In addition to the erosion estimation, the model system IWAN comprises a user interface for data conversion as well as pre- and post-processing options. The results of the model system application for both catchments demonstrate that the dominant processes of runoff generation as well as sediment loss are matched. For the Schaefertal a modelling agreement of r² equalling 0.94 and 0.91 is realised for the year of calibration 1994 and the year of validation 1995, respectively. With the exception of 1996 all periods of high flow and the falling dry of the channel in summer from 1996 until 2003 are represented satisfactorily with the calibrated set of parameters. On this basis, the total runoff volume of the observed and above discussed snow melt events has been modelled with a high degree of accuracy. The spatially differentiated calculation of soil moisture and soil frost occurrence results in a variable fraction of surface runoff on the total runoff for these events. Runoff volume, slope and flow length show positive sensitivities in the new snow melt erosion module. However, parameter combinations and non-linear algorithms, especially for root parameters and the Manning coefficient, may lead to more complex sensitivity properties. Thus, the simulation of soil erosion in the Schaefertal was first conducted with a set of parameters that was calibrated with results of erosion plot experiments. The average values of calculated erosion vary between 0.0006 and 0.96 t ha-1 for the six events from the Schaefertal. However, the median values and high standard deviations prove that most of the cells have low erosion values. The results for events with frozen soils are characterised by significant higher values of erosion. Despite similar total runoff volume i.e. of the events from 20.01.2001 and 26.02.2002 differences occur because of distinctions in runoff concentration on the north and south exposed slope. The spatial results are positively compared to field mapping in addition to a plausibility control of the calculated values. The adjustment of the calculated values for sediment load against the observations is done with calibration of the Manning coefficient for one randomly selected event. The sediment load in some footslope areas caused by runoff concentration is especially high and in the range of 0.0 to 13.84 t for single events. The event sediment yield is generally underestimated with the exception of the event on 26.02.2002. The total absolute error for the three winter seasons is 11 t. The difference between simulated and observed sediment load is highest for the 26.12.2002. This distinction may originate in the temporal variability and spatial heterogeneity of surface roughness against the background of soil frost influences and tillage operations. The general distribution of modelled sediment sources, transport pathways and connecting points to the channel are confirmed by field observations. However, a quantification of the spatial model results on the basis of the observed single events is not possible. For the Lubazhinkha catchment two sets of hydrological parameters are identified for the year of calibration 2004 which achieve satisfying results in comparison to the observed discharge. Although one of these set of parameters performed better in reproducing the peak flows of the snow melt situations, the spatial distribution of surface runoff generating areas was not plausible. Contrary, the second set of parameters characterises the lateral water flows and thus the important spatial soil moisture distribution in a more realistic way. However, the snow melt peak flows for the years of validation 2003 and 2005 are overestimated. The difference between the years, which was identified on the basis of the interpretation of the observations, is matched as well as the dynamic of runoff generation. Surface runoff generation on the flat interfluves areas and saturated areas in valley bottoms are modelled satisfactorily as well as the delayed runoff generation under forest stands. The model system simulates erosion sums of 10 to 280 t d-1 for a total of ten days with surface runoff in a range of 0.3 to 24.1 mm d-1 in the entire modelling period of three years. Considering the variable area of 5 to 46 % on which erosion takes place, the values of effective erosion vary between 0.1 and 0.32 t ha-1 for single days and between 0.44 to 0.92 t ha-1 for multi-day snow melts. The simulated sediment load at the catchment outlet range from 6.7 to 365.8 t per day and sums up to 246.2 t for the snow melt 2003. For the year 2004 99.9 t and for 2005 757.9 t are calculated. In comparison to the observations for the calibration year 2004, the sediment load is overestimated by 10 t or 12 %. The deviation for 2003 is -9 %, with the same set of parameters. The result for 2005 is with an error of 33 % not as good as in the two other years. Overall, the days of snow melt with a low amount of erosion cause additional mobilisation of sediment from the channel banks and contrary, high amount of erosion on the slopes result in deposition processes on the forest and pasture areas near in the valley bottom and in the channel itself. Thus, high sediment loads are estimated for the bottom slopes and the small V-shaped first order valleys. The sediment loads for the two sub-catchments differ significantly because of the spatially differentiated processes of runoff generation and soil erosion. For the days with runoff generation in forest areas higher sediment yields are calculated for the Lubazhinkha-subcatchment which is characterised by a higher degree of forested areas. Differences in slope-channel interaction and variations between the two subcatchments illustrated the overall high process relevance of the model results. The model system IWAN estimates for the Schaefertal and the Lubazhinkha catchment the spatial and temporal dynamics of surface runoff generation and the related erosion processes during snow melt episodes with high plausibility. The model approach demonstrates an option between model result aggregation at the catchment outlet and intensive spatial field observation and measurement within a catchment. The satisfactory modelling of processes for the Schaefertal, as well as for the Lubazhinkha catchment, forms the basis for the calculation of climate and land use scenarios. An analysis of the existing long-term dataset from the Schaefertal approves the general trend of warming, especially in the winter half year. Contrary, the instrument error for rainfall measurements disallows an identification of a trend in the present data. A total of 13 years with defined deviation of +2.5 to -2.5 °C and five years with a deviation of +0.5 °C from the average air temperature in winter (Jd 330-90) were selected from the data set. In contrast to the utilisation of weather generators, this selection provides a dataset with a combination of air temperature and rainfall/snow that is in accordance with typical atmospheric situations. The amount of rainfall for the winter period of the scenario years deviates -45 % to +75 % from the long term average of winter. The model results substantiate the role of weather situations such that an increased amount of rainfall does not automatically result in above-average runoff. Snow cover dynamics and soil frost occurrence are the controlling factors. The number of days with snow and the duration of each snow period are significant higher for scenarios with negative temperature deviation compared to the scenarios with positive deviation. Overall the results of the hydrological calculation of the scenarios show that extreme positive and negative deviations lead to increased surface runoff probability. The sums of erosion for single days with surface runoff varies between 4 to 141 t d-1 and are in direct relation to runoff volume due to the unchanged set of parameters. Generally the calculated sums of erosion for situations without soil frost are lower than with soil frost, but both types are in the range of values of the measured and modelled reference events. Also the calculated sediment yields from 0.03 to 13.15 t d-1 for the scenario days are in the range of the measurements. A higher variability could be expected when considering modifications to vegetation period or crop rotations. An interpretation of erosion and sediment yield on the basis of snow melt periods clarifies those scenarios with extreme deviations also tend to higher sediment export from the catchment. Transformation processes in the agricultural sector of Russia trigger fundamental changes in land use. Based on an analysis of the development of the past 15 years for the Lubazhinkha catchment a significant modification of the pasture, arable land and forest areas is probable in the future. This dynamic is reflected in five scenarios with area-specific changes in land use distribution. The variations range from scenarios with a foreign investor who extends the arable land to all suitable soils in the catchment, an expansion of forest areas in the frame of a governmental forest protection program to the development of small family farms with local market structures because of tourism. The calculated total runoff for the scenarios varies between 276.4 and 293.3 mm for the entire simulation period 2003 to 2005. Small positive or negative deviations occur compared to the as-is state in relation to the variable forest area and combined evapotranspiration. Contrary, the surface runoff shows large deviations of more than 20 mm for the three snow melt periods. These differences are pronounced for the scenario with highest portion of forest and pasture area in the years 2003 and 2005 that are characterised by soil frost and high water equivalent in snow. With only few exceptions the scenarios lead to an increase in simulated sediment yield at the catchment outlet. Moreover, the results document that a decrease of erosion on the slopes does not consequently result in a yield reduction. In the case of low sediment input from the slopes additional material from the channel bed and banks may attribute significantly to the sediment loading. An area specific comparison of two scenarios clarifies the importance of localisation of land use changes and the according connectivity of surface runoff areas and erosion areas to the channel. The scenarios document the increasing importance of extreme events that can be expected due to climate change. Additionally, the link of slope and channel processes, as attribute of a catchment, has to be considered in planning of management measures. The results prove for both catchments that the model system IWAN can be applied for estimating future potential sediment sources and sediment yield after successful calibration. Further research is needed in the question of transferability of the monitoring approach to other environments with a different, more complex hydrological catchment reaction and linked sediment sources and transport mechanisms. The model system IWAN can be improved by a dynamic calculation of rill network generation on the slope and a modification of the sediment transport algorithms. The transfer of the model system to other catchments has to be accompanied by a comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis especially respecting the model chain within IWAN.:Gliederung Gliederung V Liste der Abbildungen VII Liste der Tabellen XII 1 Einleitung und Fragestellung 3 1.1 Bodenerosion und Sedimentfracht in Einzugsgebieten 3 1.1.1 Abflussbildung, Bodenerosion und Sedimentaustrag 3 1.1.2 Winterliche Situationen 5 1.2 Modellierungsansätze 13 1.2.1 Modelle und Modellkopplungen 13 1.2.2 Probleme der Modellanwendung 17 1.3 Wissensdefizite und Zielstellung 23 2 Untersuchungsgebiete und Methoden 25 2.1 Schäfertal 25 2.1.1 Naturraum 25 2.1.2 Methoden 28 2.2 Lubazhinkha 31 2.2.1 Naturraum 31 2.2.2 Methoden 36 2.3 Datenverarbeitung 38 3 Ergebnisse und Diskussion des Monitorings in den Einzugsgebieten 41 3.1 Schäfertal 41 3.1.1 Abflussbildung 41 3.1.2 Stoffausträge bei Hochwasserereignissen 45 3.2 Lubazhinkha 54 3.2.1 Bedeutung der Schneeschmelze für den Stoffaustrag 54 3.2.2 Stoffdynamik während der Schneeschmelze 57 4 Modellentwicklung 69 4.1 Zielstellungen der Modellmodifikation und -entwicklung 69 4.2 WASIM-AGNPS 70 4.2.1 Wasserhaushaltsmodell WASIM 70 4.2.2 Stofftransportmodell AGNPS 72 4.2.3 Schnittstelle WASIM-AGNPS 74 4.3 Modifikation von WASIM für winterliche Abflussbildung 76 4.3.1 Grundlagen 76 4.3.2 Datenerhebung 77 4.3.3 Sensorauswahl 77 4.3.4 Ergebnisse 79 4.3.5 Empirisches Modell 82 4.3.6 Bodentemperaturteilmodul 83 4.3.7 Anpassung mit Daten aus dem Einzugsgebiet Lubazhinkha 85 4.4 Schneeschmelzerosionsmodell (SMEM) 87 4.4.1 Rillenprofil 87 4.4.2 Bodenerosion 90 4.4.3 Technische Umsetzung 96 4.5 Modellsystem IWAN 97 4.5.1 Schnittstelle SMEM-AGNPS 97 4.5.2 Graphische Benutzeroberfläche 99 5 Modellergebnisse und Diskussion 105 5.1 Schäfertal 105 5.1.1 Bodentemperatur 105 5.1.2 Hydrologie 108 5.1.3 Schneeschmelzerosion 113 5.1.4 Sedimentfracht 120 5.2 Lubazhinkha 126 5.2.1 Hydrologie 126 5.2.2 Schneeschmelzerosion 133 5.2.3 Sedimentfracht 137 6 Szenariorechnungen 143 6.1 Klimaszenarien Schäfertal 143 6.1.1 Szenarienauswahl 143 6.1.2 Modellergebnisse und Diskussion 148 6.2 Landnutzungsszenarien Lubazhinkha 158 6.2.1 Szenarienauswahl 158 6.2.2 Modellergebnisse und Diskussion 163 7 Schlussfolgerungen 169 7.1 Einzugsgebiete 169 7.2 Modellsystem IWAN 172 7.3 Szenarien 176 7.4 Forschungsbedarf 178 8 Zusammenfassung 179 9 Summary 189 10 Literatur 199 Appendix 207 Abkürzungen Modellübersicht Quellcode (VBA)
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With a whirlwind of dramatic events gripping the world's attention, it can be easy to forget that we are now less than one year away from the 2024 presidential election.Despite their expected focus on domestic issues, candidates will have a lot to answer for this cycle when it comes to foreign policy as the war in Ukraine drags on and U.S.-China relations continue to deteriorate.The Democratic Party has chosen not to hold debates despite growing concerns about President Joe Biden's chances next year. With only a couple of months to go before the primaries start, the Quincy Institute decided that it would be useful to survey Biden's challengers from the left on how they would handle a range of foreign policy issues if elected.The candidates' responses show interesting differences on a range of questions, from a potential Israeli-Saudi normalization deal to the possibility of using military force to fight the cartels in Mexico. The questionnaire went out before the October 7 Hamas attacks against Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, but we pulled together candidates' reactions to the events where possible.We received responses from Democratic candidate Marianne Williamson as well as independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West. Biden's campaign declined to participate, so we have aggregated relevant quotes and information about the president's stances where possible. We did the same for Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who entered the race in late October and has not responded to our requests. We will update this page if we receive further responses.Biggest challenges to U.S. security; how to avoid war with China; potential negotiations to end the war in Ukraine; U.S. role in Saudi-Israeli normalization; withdrawing troops from Middle East; military force and the Mexican cartels; Israel-Hamas warWhat, in your view, are the three most pressing challenges to U.S. national security?Joe Biden (D)While President Biden has not directly addressed this question, his national security adviser said the following about the White House's 2022 National Security Strategy: "Our strategy proceeds from the premise that the two strategic challenges — geopolitical competition and shared transnational threats — are intertwined. We cannot build the broad coalitions we need to out-compete our rivals, if we sideline the issues that most directly impact the lives of billions of people." He further argued that "this is a decisive decade for shaping the terms of competition, especially with the PRC [China]. This is a decisive decade for getting ahead of the great global challenges — from climate to disease to emerging technology."Marianne Williamson (D)"The three most pressing challenges to U.S. national security are the nuclear threat, climate change, and our inability to go beyond the adversarial positioning in which countries view each other. We are closer to nuclear war than we've been in a long time. We must move towards a nuclear-free world, and we must begin by adopting a no first use policy. Once we adopt this policy, it will be much easier for us to get other nuclear-armed countries to do the same. There is no threat I am more concerned about than climate change. We are living through the last few years where we have a chance to save humanity. We must immediately undergo a just transition from a dirty fossil fueled economy to a clean renewable economy, and create millions of good jobs in the process. The time for incrementalism on climate is over. If we only view other countries through an adversarial lens, in terms of how they can harm or serve our interests, then we cannot deal with these crucial issues that challenge the security of all of us. We must work together with the international community for the common interest so that we can begin to deal with climate change, nuclear weapons, pandemics, and other threats."Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I)"The most pressing challenges are the ones we have created ourselves. First is the risk of nuclear war, which belligerent and provocative U.S. policy has elevated to levels not seen since the Cold War.The second is the bankrupting of America's wealth, the result of decades of elevated military spending. The trillions spent on armaments could have gone toward building modern infrastructure, feeding and housing people, tackling chronic disease, and nourishing a thriving domestic economy.A third threat to national security is the epidemic of violence in our streets and in our homes. When we wage endless wars abroad, their mirror image afflicts us at home. Realistically, our nation is not threatened by an armed invasion by a foreign power. We have to broaden what we mean by 'national security' to include the things that actually make Americans feel insecure."Cornel West (I)"Climate Change: Climate change is not an endpoint that awaits us in the distant future, it is among us right now and impacting lives across the country and the entire world, especially the most vulnerable and most disadvantaged populations here in the U.S. — Black, Brown, Indigenous, and the poor. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), climate change-related damages cost the United States an estimated $165 Billion in 2022, Hurricane Ida, a Category 4 storm that massacred communities in Florida, including the loss of 150 lives, cost taxpayers approximately $112.9 Billion alone. Moreover, NOAA estimates that in the last 40 years, 341 storms exacerbated by climate change have cost the nation more than $2.5 Trillion. To put that into perspective, that's $80 Billion more than the national deficit of approximately $1.7 Trillion, thus far, for Fiscal Year 2023, and 1.5 percent of the national debt that stands at $161.7 trillion and counting. A nation already in massive debt, coupled with the astronomical costs of a growing climate crisis is the direct antithesis of national security. It's undeniable that more calamities associated with the climate crisis, including more powerful weather incidents that induce extreme flooding, extreme heat, and other environmental stressors, are inevitable. These events will have profound impacts on myriad systems and institutions that are necessary to maintain a livable society including, but not limited to, the production of food, access to clean water sources, the quality and availability of housing, transportation, education, and healthcare. The collapse of these systems could reasonably engender massive social unrest that would result in the massive displacement and forced migration of people as we are already witnessing with the United Houma Nation, Pointe-au Chien Indian Tribe, and Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw of present-day Louisiana, who are the first federally recognized climate migrants, whose land is literally sinking due to oil and gas extraction in the Gulf of Mexico, which has rendered their land susceptible to the impacts of climate change. In fact, the United Nations Office of the High Commissions for Refugees has predicted that more than 200 million people, globally, will be forced to relocate due to climate change, including 40% of United Statesians who currently reside in coastal areas. From the atrocities of Hurricane Katrina to the current situation at the United States border with Mexico, we have already witnessed the consequences of climate-related breakdowns of social, economic, and other systems necessary to maintain quality of life and life itself breakdown all coupled with mass migration of innocent people seeking refuge.Increased Militarism: The United States is the single biggest military spender in the world with an annual budget roughly the size of the next seven largest military budgets combined. According to records kept by the National Priorities Project at the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS), in any given year, military spending accounts for over half of the federal government's annual discretionary budget. The U.S. military's bloated budget is utilized to build weapons and warcraft, which are in turn utilized to threaten other nations and demand their cooperation with the perceived U.S. military hegemony or offered to cooperative nations as part of military alliances. In FY 2023 alone, out of a $1.8 trillion federal discretionary budget, $1.1 trillion – or 62 percent – was for militarized programs. On top of war and weapons for the Pentagon, these expenditures include domestic militarism for police departments across the country and mass incarceration, as well as increased detentions and deportation, which represent direct threats to the security of Black, Brown, Indigenous and poor people in the United States. As we are witnessing right now, the current administration is complicit in thousands of civilian deaths by giving Israel military aid at $3.8 billion this year, half of which goes to Israel's missile system. They are now requesting a combined supplemental aid package at $106 billion for Israel along with Ukraine, Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region, and US immigration enforcement at the US-Mexico southern border. To put this in perspective, combined with the estimated $113 billion in military aid the US has already sent to Ukraine, should the Congress grant President Biden's additional $105 billion package to Ukraine and Israel, this would represent almost 60% of the initially estimated $379 billion in climate change expenditures over 10 years included as part of the so-called Inflation Reduction Act. Further, the $105 billion military aid package to Israel and Ukraine is one hundred times the paltry $1 billion that the US pledged to the Green Climate Fund earlier this year, to fund climate mitigation and adaptation in the formerly colonized countries of Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Pacific. Our friends at IPS also indicate that the U.S. could safely redirect at least $350 billion from the Pentagon's current spending per year and achieve true security by ending wars, reducing our aggressive posture overseas, and reining in military contracts that drain public coffers for private gain - all measures that would actually increase national security, while making resources available for critical domestic needs including, but not limited to, increased access to healthcare, improving the nation's broken education system - including an iniquitous student loan debt crisis, and real action to address the climate crisis. With the largest military in the world, the US is the single largest greenhouse gas emitting institution and consumer of fossil fuels on the entire planet, with a carbon footprint bigger than 140 other countries. The environmental and climate impacts of global militarism and war are staggering. Militarization continues to increase greenhouse gas emissions and pollute and poison land, water and air through weapons production, storage, and use, which is ironic Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin, himself recently declared, 'There is little about what the Defense Department does to defend the American people that is not affected by climate change. It is a national security issue, and we must treat it as such.'Rising White Supremacy and Nationalism: We have already observed how the interlinked crises of the calamities associated with climate change, which push those disproportionately impacted further to the margins and thereby increasing the militarization of the southern border, urban areas, and throughout the world to address associated entropy of social systems and infrastructure tends to increase sentiments that beguile far too many U.S. residents to embrace elements of white supremacy ideology, thereby increasing instances of violence and acceptance of authoritarian and fascist paradigms that represent clear and present dangers to national security – no one knows this better than the U.S. Department of Justice. In 2001, Attorney General, Merrick Garland admonished the Senate Appropriations Committee stating, in part, "Domestic violent extremists pose an elevated threat in 2021 and in the FBI's view, the top domestic violent extremist threat we face comes from racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists, specifically those who advocate for the superiority of the white race." This salient issue has the potential to literally tear our nation asunder. A nation this divided is itself a national security risk that can be taken advantage of by nations hostile to the U.S. due to imperialist and interventionist past and present foreign policies of our country and their lasting impacts to [a] marked number of nations across the globe. Dismantling growing white supremacy and nationalism will require a multifaceted and intersectional approach that seeks to deracinate the root causes of this epidemic that prevents the U.S. from living up to its best self while also remaining a seemingly indelible threat. This will require tying requisite economic relief from an oligarchic approach to wealth accumulation and redistribution that exacerbates the white supremacy ideology ensconced in the fabric of this nation in such a way that has been negatively radicalizing poor white folk who may not even realize how the capitalist domination system upheld by the political duopoly extract from them as much as non-white people they are bamboozled to hate and stigmatize. I am confident that my Economic Justice prescriptions that include establishing a federal Universal Basic Income commission, wealth tax on all billionaire holdings and transaction, ending all tax loopholes for the oligarchy, and establishing a national $27 minimum wage, with special considerations for specific geographies where $27/hour would not be a family-sustaining wage, will be key steps in eviscerating the rise of white supremacy and nationalism in our nation that hurts the people perpetrated against as much as the people doing the perpetrating."As president, what would you do to avoid a direct military confrontation with China?Joe Biden (D)Biden has not directly addressed this question since becoming president, but a White House readout from his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping last year gives a good summary of his administration's stated approach to relations with China. "President Biden explained that the United States will continue to compete vigorously with the PRC, including by investing in sources of strength at home and aligning efforts with allies and partners around the world. He reiterated that this competition should not veer into conflict and underscored that the United States and China must manage the competition responsibly and maintain open lines of communication. The two leaders discussed the importance of developing principles that would advance these goals and tasked their teams to discuss them further. President Biden underscored that the United States and China must work together to address transnational challenges – such as climate change, global macroeconomic stability including debt relief, health security, and global food security – because that is what the international community expects."Marianne Williamson (D)"We absolutely cannot have a direct military confrontation with China, which would be one step away from World War III and nuclear Armageddon. The U.S. must accept that we are in a multipolar world. While I am deeply concerned about China's authoritarianism and serious violations of human rights, I do not think that China is interested in invading the U.S. or in starting a war with us. While we should do what we can through peaceful diplomacy to lessen Chinese human rights violations, we cannot start World War III between two nuclear-armed countries. Our military must stop trying to encircle China in the South China Sea. Instead, we must talk to China and seek peaceful coexistence."Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I)"We believe that China has no desire for military confrontation. We will therefore ratchet down the tensions and cease the provocations in the South China Sea and elsewhere. We will adopt a posture that does not see China as an 'adversary,' and begin to negotiate arms control treaties in good faith so that both countries can reduce military spending to better the lives of their citizens."Cornel West (I)"We all know where a direct military confrontation with the People's Republic of China (PRC) will lead — irreparable nuclear holocaust that will lead to the loss and alteration of hundreds of millions of innocent lives over a conflict engendered by two so-called superpowers. We need to be honest with the people of the world, the U.S. and PRC are currently in a cold war that must be thawed to save lives and a global economy both hanging in the balance. The first step in thawing the current cold war will require a cessation to the myriad proxy wars that use nations like Ukraine, Taiwan, and numerous global south nations from Africa to Southeast Asia, to Latin America as pawns in an arms and resource extraction race. As president I will cease the saber rattling and chest beating that are doing nothing but instigating the PRC with military war games in waterways of Southeast Asia such as the Sea of Japan, Yellow Sea, East China Sea and others. I am confident this will open pathways for diplomacy that leads to cooperation in lieu of competition with the PRC. I agree with the Quincy Institute's assessment that the current administration's rhetoric of competition with the PRC is a feckless attempt to marginalize and exclude the nation from the global community, which in turn pushes them to form alliances with nations the U.S. also finds itself in a contemporary cold war with including, but not limited to, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Russia. One area where I believe we should especially be cooperating rather than competing with the PRC is the climate crisis. While it's true that the PRC is the largest emitter in the world, the U.S. remains the largest historic emitter despite only representing five percent of the world's population. Planetary survival literally requires less finger pointing at who is most responsible for the climate crisis and more finger pointing towards mutual and cooperative solutions. And rather than compete with the PRC for requisite critical resources to develop the infrastructure for renewable energy and regenerative economies, we must cooperate with them such that we don't render the need to address the climate crisis into a rationalization for casus belli over possession critical resources that will also drag global south nations into proxy wars they want no part of. The PRC, the U.S., and the entire world has a collective interest in protecting lives and the planet from the impacts of climate change. As president, my first step in avoiding a military confrontation with the PRC would be to invite and work with them to be a leading partner in addressing the climate crisis by exchanging ideas, resources, and technologies that can rapidly emancipate both nations from reliance on fossil fuels, which will improve relations, cooperation, and the habitability of the planet at once, while also preventing a military confrontation that will take more lives than the climate crisis."Is it in the U.S. national interest for the president to convene negotiations in an effort to end the war in Ukraine?Joe Biden (D)Biden generally emphasizes that Ukraine should be the driving force behind any peace negotiations and has argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin has not shown signs that he is ready to negotiate. He has, however, helped to convene several international conferences to discuss a diplomatic path forward, one of which reportedly included discussions about concessions that Ukraine may make in exchange for peace. (The administration denied these reports.)Marianne Williamson (D)"Firstly, this question is framed in terms of the 'U.S. national interest,' but I think it's time we start concerning ourselves more with the interests of humanity as a whole than the interests of the American government or American corporations, which is usually what is meant by 'U.S. national interest.'Yes, I think the U.S. should convene negotiations with Russia and Ukraine. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a despicable crime, and we should support Ukraine and their autonomy. However, we need to do what we can to bring about a just but realistic peace. It seems extremely unlikely that either side in this conflict will have a complete victory over the other anytime soon, so if we don't want to let this draw out for two decades like our war in Afghanistan, then we should press for negotiations. I think that the withdrawn letter by progressive Congress members from last year that urged negotiations was a good and reasonable letter, and they should not have buckled to pressure and withdrawn it."Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I)"Yes. Current U.S. strategic thinking is that the war serves the national interest by weakening Russia. That thinking is faulty on two counts. First, it is not weakening Russia. Second, a weak and unstable Russia would make us much less secure, not more secure. The United States and the world will be best served when Russia knows that we are not out to destroy her."Cornel West (I)"The conflict between Ukraine and Russia is not going to be ameliorated by military means. With $113 billion of taxpayer dollars already sent to Ukraine leading to no more than an endless war of attrition, as well as poll numbers indicating dithering support for a series of blank checks to continue it, it's clear the people of the United States have had enough. It's not just in the national interest for a diplomatic solution to this conflict, it's the duty of the President of the United States to lead this process with our global partners in Europe, Asia, and Africa. As president, I will give Ukraine no other choice but to enter a diplomatic process as part of my commitment to cease all war funding and weapons to Ukraine and instead invest in peacemaking."If Saudi Arabia agreed to normalize relations with Israel but requested a guarantee from the United States to defend the Kingdom militarily in exchange, would you seek to ratify a treaty making that commitment?Joe Biden (D)President Biden has not directly commented on this proposal, but his administration has led the initiative to negotiate a defense commitment in exchange for normalization.Rep. Dean Phillips (D)Phillips has endorsed the Biden administration's approach. "Never did we imagine it possible in our lifetimes to see the possible normalization of relations between the Saudis and Israelis. It's an extraordinary and historic opportunity not just for these two countries, but for the entire world," he told NPR. "The United States plays a significant role relative to a defense pact with the Saudis equipment and materiel relative to their military and potentially a civilian nuclear program as well. If those things can be met and also meeting some of the needs of the Palestinians, this could be an extraordinary legacy at a time the world surely needs it." Marianne Williamson (D)"No. The U.S. cannot get involved in another war in the Middle East – especially not in order to defend Saudi Arabia, arguably the worst human rights violator in the region. It is time the U.S. stops aiding Saudi Arabia and Israel in their egregious human rights violations."Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I)"We think the premise of this question to be unlikely. Saudi Arabia is armed to the teeth and has no need of such a guarantee. As it has good relations with most other nations, its [only] plausible national security threat is Iran. However, much of the Sunni-Shiite conflict in the past arose from U.S. geopolitical maneuvering that elevated tensions throughout the region."Cornel West (I)"I wouldn't even qualify this request as a treaty as it would be more of a death sentence for innocent civilians in the region and more service members, too many who have already been lost due to U.S. empire building in the Middle East, mainly to protect oil profits of fossil fuel cartels both domestically and globally. We need less iron domes and a more iron-clad diplomatic process that leads to lasting peace and mutual dignity for all people in the Middle East. To this end, as president I would insist that any normalization of relations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the State of Israel include immediate steps to liberate Palestinian people from occupation and a wanton cycle of violence that's killing precious Palestinian and Israeli lives alike."As Commander-in-Chief, would you bring home the U.S. troops currently stationed in Iraq and Syria?Joe Biden (D)While Biden has not directly addressed this question, a senior Pentagon official recently said the U.S. "has no intent to withdraw in the near future" from Syria.Marianne Williamson (D)"Yes I would, but in Syria, I would first negotiate an agreement that ensures the Kurds will not be harmed before withdrawing the troops that are protecting them."Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I)"Yes. Those nations do not want our troops there. I will instigate bold peace initiatives in places where there are still military tensions, in some cases replacing troops with international peacekeepers."Cornel West (I)"As indicated in my Policy Pillars Rooted in a Movement of Truth, Justice, and Love, as president I would immediately embark on a responsible and expeditious closure of global U.S. military bases as part of a larger initiative to cease and desist U.S. empire building and maintenance and slash the bloated military budget, including the disbanding of NATO, such that we can reinvest those funds in myriad social and economic justice programs domestically. As tensions in the Middle East associated with the crisis in Palestine/Israel grow, the U.S. presence is only exacerbating an already incendiary situation while putting brave service people in harm's way for no other reason than to maintain U.S. empire and a military hegemony in a region that needs less bullets and rockets and more diplomacy. To this end, as president, I would bring those troops home immediately, honor them for their service and ensure a Just Transition so that they can use the skills they gained in the military and put them to use for beneficial services to the people of the U.S."If elected, would you request an authorization from Congress to use military force against drug cartels in Mexico?Joe Biden (D)Biden has not commented directly on calls to authorize military force against the cartels, but a National Security Council spokesperson said in April that the administration "is not considering military action in Mexico.""Designating these cartels as foreign terrorist organizations would not grant us any additional authorities that we don't already have," the spokesperson added.Marianne Williamson (D)"No. The U.S. has invaded and militarily intervened in Latin America time after time, and it has only brought violence and misery and fueled the immigration that we now complain about. It is time we reject the imperialist Monroe Doctrine, which declared Latin America our backyard. It is time we respect our neighbors to the south and stop invading their countries."Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I)"Absolutely not. The Mexicans have the power to overcome the drug cartels themselves. We can aid them by sharing intelligence, by shutting down the illegal weapons trade, by cracking down on money laundering activities of US banks, and by prosecuting the cartels' collaborators in this country."Cornel West (I)"Absolutely not. To be clear, asking the Congress for authorization to use military force in Mexico would essentially be asking Congress to approve a military invasion through a declaration of war against Mexico. The so-called war against drugs in the United States has been and continues to be an abject failure. This 50-year war has been used as a rationalization for crimes against humanity, especially those most marginalized by failed drug policies - Black, Brown, Indigenous and poor people, who have been subjected to a racialized and classist mass incarceration pogrom that has needlessly locked up over 400,000 people for non-violent drug-related crimes between 1980 and 1997 alone. A failed domestic drug war should not be an impetus to start a foreign drug war in the sovereign territory of one of our North American partners. It should instead be an impetus to enact efficacious policies that treat addiction as a national threat to public health. Instead of increasing militarism and launching a foreign war, we should declare war against the lack of access to healthcare and the lack of economic opportunities that contribute to drug use. Reducing and decriminalizing drug use in the United States will directly reduce the amount of drugs that are smuggled across the border, thereby reducing revenues for drug cartels in Mexico. This is less an issue of militarism and more an issue of addiction driven by supply and demand."Reactions to Israel-Hamas warJoe Biden (D)In a speech on Oct. 20, Biden said: "In Israel, we must make sure that they have what they need to protect their people today and always.The security package I'm sending to Congress and asking Congress to do is an unprecedented commitment to Israel's security that will sharpen Israel's qualitative military edge, which we've committed to — the qualitative military edge.We're going to make sure Iron Dome continues to guard the skies over Israel. We're going to make sure other hostile actors in the region know that Israel is stronger than ever and prevent this conflict from spreading.Look, at the same time, [Prime Minister] Netanyahu and I discussed again yesterday the critical need for Israel to operate by the laws of war. That means protecting civilians in combat as best as they can. The people of Gaza urgently need food, water, and medicine."Rep. Dean Phillips (D)In a long tweet, Phillips said, "The destruction of Hamas is necessary, but the military campaign must follow international law and conventions of civilized nations. [...]I support a pause in hostilities and the immediate safe passage of civilians from Gaza into temporary shelters in Egypt and/or Jordan and the largest humanitarian relief effort in world history.I am pro-Israeli and anti the Netanyahu government — and [its] enabling of settlements on Palestinian land. [...]Israel has a right to exist, defend itself, and ensure the terror and butchering of Oct 7 never happens again.Palestinians have a right to a nation of their own, and that begins with a free and fair election for the first time since 2006 in which a choice can be made; peace or war.Israelis must also be afforded the same right to choose peace or war."Marianne Williamson (D)Williamson tweeted: "For Israel to prosecute an all out war on Gaza is already a catastrophe for the people of Gaza. It can easily become a catastrophe for the people of Israel as well. There's no end game there, for them or for the rest of the world, that doesn't multiply the horror. The United States should join an international consortium — Egypt, Jordan and others — in efforts to secure release of the hostages and cessation of the bombing."Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I)On Oct. 7, Kennedy said the following in a statement: "This ignominious, unprovoked, and barbaric attack on Israel must be met with world condemnation and unequivocal support for the Jewish state's right to self-defense. We must provide Israel with whatever it needs to defend itself — now. As President, I'll make sure that our policy is unambiguous so that the enemies of Israel will think long and hard before attempting aggression of any kind.I applaud the strong statements of support from the Biden White House for Israel in her hour of need. However, the scale of these attacks means it is likely that Israel will need to wage a sustained military campaign to protect its citizens. Statements of support are fine, but we must follow through with unwavering, resolute, and practical action. America must stand by our ally throughout this operation and beyond as it exercises its sovereign right to self-defense."Kennedy later warned against using the attacks and subsequent war as a justification for war with Iran. "It didn't take long for the neocons in Washington to spin the Hamas terror attacks to advance their agenda of war against Iran," he tweeted on Oct. 27. "If President Biden doesn't resist them, they might get their wish."Cornel West (I)
In a recent statement, West said, "US taxpayers want no part in funding the Israeli war machine that is committing genocidal war crimes in Gaza. We need stronger, clearer headed representation like this within our highest levels of government." He has also said, "We want a ceasefire. We want an end of the siege. We want an end of occupation. We want equal rights, equal dignity, and equal access for Palestinians and Jews."
Abstrak Karya sastra merupakan miniatur dari dunia nyata, dimana sebuah karya sastra biasanya mengungkap beberapa masalah yang berkaitan dengan makhluk hidup termasuk isu-isu tentang hubungan manusia dengan alam. Manusia lebih cenderung melakukan kerusakan pada lingkungan daripada menjaganya, hal ini menyebabkan kehancuran bumi beserta isinya. Hal ini tergambar pada novel The Road karya McCarthy dimana lingkungan yang menjadi setting utamanya hancur berantakan. Lansekapnya tertutup oleh abu yang berterbangan. Dan ketika salju turun, ia berwarna abu-abu. Langitnya juga terlihat gelap. Oleh sebab itu, ada beberapa masalah yang berhubungan dengan kehancuran bumi yang tergambar pada novel yang kemudian memunculkan dua dasar pertanyaan (1) bagaimana kehancuran bumi digambarkan dalam novel The Road karya McCarthy? Dan (2) bagaimana kehancuran bumi memberikan dampak terhadap karakter utama dalam novel The Road karya McCarthy?. Untuk melihat masalah ini perlu teori yang pas yang biasa disebut ecocriticism. Ecocriticism melihat kehancuran bumi sebagai hasil dari tingkah laku manusia terhadap lingkungan misalnya: eksploitasi dan colonialisasi. Seperti yang dikatakan Lawrence Buell bahwa kondisi lingkungan itu ditentukan oleh manusia. Ecocriticism adalah suatu istilah yang berada dibawah payung postcolonialism dimana seorang postcolonialist meyakini bahwa kolonialisasi mempunyai campur tangan dalam penghancuran bumi. Para penjajah merasa percaya diri untuk mengeksploitasi bumi karena dianugrahi kekuatan oleh modernism. Untuk mendapatkan analisis yang jelas, skripsi ini menggunakan metode descriptive quality dimana kualitas data menjadi poin utama daripada jumlah data. Jadi, terlihat jelas bahwa kehancuran bumi terjadi diseluruh lapisan lingkungan; yaitu atmosfer, permukaan tanah, dan laut. Seluruh atmosfer dipenuhi oleh abu, debu dan karbon, tanahnya terkikis, tandus dan gundul, dan lautnya berubah menjadi abu-abu. Kehancuran bumi ini juga memberikan kesuraman tersendiri kepada tokoh si bapak dan si anak. Mereka harus melalui hidup yang keras, susah untuk bernafas, susah untuk menemukan sesuatu yang bisa dimakan dan secara mental mereka selalu takut akan ancaman-ancaman dari kehancuran bumi. Kata Kunci: kehancuran bumi, ecocriticism, postcolonialism, modernism. Abstract Literary work is a miniature of larger world or reality, whereas a literary work reveals some problems related to humans being including issues of human relationships with the environment. Humans tend to do damage to the environment rather than maintaining it, thus it causes devastation of earth. It is reflected in McCarthy's the road where the environment is devastated. The landscape save the ash on the wind, and when the snow falls, it is gray. The sky is also dark. Therefore, there are some problems of knowledge about how the devastation of earth portrays in the novel, which are delivered to two main questions of (1) How is devastation of earth depicted in Cormac McCarthy's The Road? and (2) How does devastation of earth give impacts to the main characters in Cormac McCarthy's The Road?. In case to observe these problems, it needs a suitable theory which called ecocriticism. Ecocriticism sees the devastation of earth as the result of humans' behaviour such as exploitation and colonialism of the environment, as Lawrence Buell says that the condition of the environment is determined by humans. Ecocriticism is under umbrella term of postcolonialism in which postcolonilist believes that colonization has intervention in devastating the earth. Colonizer is encouraged to exploit the nature because of power that is given by modernism. To get a clear analysis, this thesis uses descriptive quality method; it means the quality of the data becomes the reference to work rather than the quantity of the data. Thus, it is seen clearly that devastation of earth happened in the whole layers of environment; atmosphere, land and sea. The atmosphere is occupied by ash, dust and carbon, the land has eroded and barren and the sea have changed into gray. This devastation also gives a misery to the father and the son as the main characters. They have to undergo hard life; hard to breathe, hard to find food and mentally they are haunted by the devastated earth's threatens. Keywords: devastation of earth, ecocriticism, postcolonialism, modernism. INTRODUCTION Humans often feel indifferent toward nature. For them, nature is something considerably as a 'mystic' thing, when it goes right, humans forget it, when it goes wrong, they worry it. People tend to prefer natural environments more than built environments, and built environments with water, trees, and other vegetation more than built environments without such features (Kaplan & Kaplan, 1989). On the other word, humans tend to permit the nature walks down by itself. They seem to just let it flow without thinking how to keep and maintenance the nature. The study of humans' relation with nature which is known as ecology was begun since years ago when humans lived in harmony with the nature. However, in line with development the nature also changes. Unfortunately, this natural changes brings devastation on earth, as Donald Hughes says that looking back to our historical ecology, Humans have related in multiple ways to the Earth's systems; some of these ways promise a sustainable balance with them, while others are destructive (Hughes, 2001: 269). Historically, through devastation of earth Humans have made major changes in their environments. This is happened almost in the whole surface, as Hughes says that devastation of earth has happened in every historical period and in every part of the inhabited Earth (2001: 1). In order to observe those processes of change that affect the relationship, ecologist studies the mutual effects that other species, natural forces, and cycles have on humans, and the actions of humans that affect the web of connections with non-human organisms and entities (id. at 4.). This ecologist's study shows that devastation of earth is the result of humans' behaviour toward environment. This bad behaviour has changed the environment that will bring devastation to the humans themselves. Humans seemingly don't care of the environment. Severity, humans tend to be more destructive. It forces some Ecocritics who concern in literary study and environment in late nineteenth criticized humans' behaviour toward nature. This criticises show how important avoiding that kind of behaviour toward nature which brings devastation of earth merely, it signed that the study of literature which related to the environment has to be discussed. There were in fact some isolated calls for an ecologically oriented criticism during the 1970s (Rigby, vol 2: 2). However, it was not until the end of the twentieth century that the study of literature and the environment was finally recognized as 'a subject on the rise'. In studying of literature, humans ordinarily focus on the relation between humans and others (society) or between humans and themselves (psychology), whereas, the relation between humans and environment actually is tightly connected. Unfortunately, the study of literature which related to the earth was often forgotten, whereas, the study of literature which related to the environment is greatly important. The study of environment is not merely observing of the nature or nonhumans aspect but it tends to study the relation among nature, earth and the humans themselves. Human actually is a part of environmental system, and therefore the environment has the crucial role in humans life in which it is become the main point of literary study. In some respects, it is perhaps not surprising that the study of literary texts should be coupled with such forgetfulness of the earth. Thus it is needed a study of humans' relation and environment. The study of literature and environment got a full attention when modern era begun to destruct the environment. Since last decade ago, especially years ago, humans consciously realized the impacts of their behaviour toward nature, moreover when they become crazier of invention, exploration and exploitation of the nature. Surely, this impact is indirectly causing ecological changes. However, actually what people do about their ecology depend on what they think about themselves in relation to things around them. Human ecology is deeply conditioned by beliefs about our nature and destiny (White 1996, 6). It can be imagined when humans were only thinking about themselves and forgetting the nature or they were just considering their needs without considering the nature needs, it can be ascertained that the nature will vanish and be extinct. This idea or thought about indifference toward nature is criticized by the Ecocritics. Ecocriticism maintains that literature may be approached in a way that examines humans as part of an ecosystem; they are neither master nor slave to it, but simply one part of an intricate system. Literature and environment truly can't be separated each other. Moreover, Lawrence Buell argues in his book The Truth of Ecology as quoted by Dana Philip that literature would be environmental. It would evoke the natural world through verbal surrogates, and would thereby attempt to bond the reader to the world as well as to discourse (Philip, 2003: 7). It can be assumed that through the literary work, the reader will be brought to the environmental world and devastation of earth. Indirectly, literature causes the reader's interpretation of the environment. Thus, it is important to understand the relation between humans and environment through literary work. It needs to notice that ecology is not a slush fund of fact, value, and metaphor, but a less than fully coherent field with a very checkered past and a fairly uncertain future (Philip, 2003: 45). By understanding the relation between humans and environment, it is beneficial to determine the act effectively on the impact of natural destruction and to integrate knowledge and actions. The study of literature and environment works in tandem in determining humans' perception and interpretation toward nature. As Lawrence Buell says that literature and environment studies must make their case for the indispensableness of physical environment as a shaping force in human art and experience, and how such an aesthetic works (2001: 9). It can be assumed that environmental interpretation is a humanistic inquiry. In other word, what people think about nature, and how they have expressed those ideas is what people interpret of the nature. Generally what people expressed the idea of the nature is a Realistic depiction of the world. Thus, it needs a tool to see this depiction. Surely Ecocriticism is a proper tool to see the depiction of the world. Ecocriticism is the most suitable binoculars to telescoped ecological issue and ecological changes in such literary work, as Sheryl Glotfelty (1996: xviii) says that Ecocriticism is the study of the relationship between literature and the physical environment, Ecocriticism takes an earth-centered approach to literary studies. Only Ecocriticicism observes the relation between humans and nonhumans aspects. What Ecocritics do, in short, is attempting to discover nature as absence, silence in texts, and construe environmental representation as a relevant category of literary (Buell, 2005: 30). Ecocriticism encourages the changing of canonisation through entering literary works which carry up natural issue. Ecocriticism ecologically oriented critique of the way in which Nature is constructed in certain canonical texts. Environmental literature constitutes the third way in which Ecocriticism recasts the canon. According to Lawrence Buell (1995, 7-8), an environmentally oriented work should display some characteristics; first, the nonhuman environment is present not merely as a framing device but as a presence that begins to suggest that human history is implicated in natural history. Second, the human interest is not understood to be the only legitimate interest. Third, Human accountability to the environment is part of the text's ethical framework. The last, some sense of the environment as a process rather than as a constant or a given is at least implicit in the text. In such literary work; Cormac McCarthy's The Road the nature as the setting represents ecological changes. Surely, this change causes devastation of earth. Nothing is more miserable on earth but devastation. The world which is the closest place we live at is not convenient again when it was devastated. Thus, literary and environment has interrelation that cannot be separated. Then, it is important to analyze such literary work through Ecocriticism. Ecological issue commonly represented by the presence of natural thing such as; tree, land and also circumstance in the novel which it become the setting. In other word, ecological issue become a centre point of setting. One of great writers in narrating the setting is Cormac McCarthy. Not only known as a king of the setting, McCarthy also has known as famous environmental setting as Addy Haddock (a writer of McCarthy's bibliography) says that his ability to provide eloquent descriptions with smoothly rolling darker undertones and poetically dismal nuances makes him become a writer with powerful setting. Thus, McCarthy is a right author referenced as a study of Ecocriticism. Indirectly, McCarthy's proficient is caused by his settled at a barn near Louisville, Tennessee. All the stones he gathered, all the wood he cut and kiln dried by himself to renovate his small house. Seemingly, McCarthy's life is not far away from the nature. Years later, after marrying fellow student Lee Holleman in 1961, he and she moved to a shack with no heat and running water in the foothills of the Smoky Mountains outside of Knoxville. These experiences of life sharpen his idea toward nature. McCarthy reveals that he is not a fan of authors who do not deal with issues of life and death; it can be assumed that his writing tends to be explored issues of life including devastation of earth. Recalling blithely the months he spent without electricity in a house in Tennessee. Without money, and he had run out of toothpaste and he was wondering what to do when he went to the mailbox and there was a free sample. It made him become more sensitive facing the nature and more respect it. In 2006, McCarthy writes The Road that grants him a change to be interviewed by Oprah Winfrey. Surely, this interview related to his writing especially devastation of earth and won Pulitzer Prize for fiction. McCarthy told Winfrey that related several stories illustrating the degree of outright poverty he endured at times during his career as a writer. He also states that his novel; The Road inspired when he was standing at the window of a hotel in the middle of the night, his son asleep nearby, he started to imagine what El Paso might look like 50 or 100 years in the future. He just had this image of these fires up on the hill. It shows the condition of the nature at the time which the hill was fired up. McCarthy can be categorized as a weird person. People usually gathered with other people who have same hobby or pleasure. However, it doesn't apply for McCarthy. As a writer, he doesn't like to gather with other writer. He would rather hang out with physicists or scientist than other writer. He does not know any writers and much prefers the company of scientists. No doubt if his knowledge of nature is rich. His knowledge of the natural world is vast and includes many of the Latin names of birds and animals. His pleasure gathering with physicists and scientist caused by his interest in science and environment, by absorbing the intelligence scientists, he realizes that in 100 years the human race won't even be recognizable. For him, what physicists did in the 20th century was one of the extraordinary flowerings ever in the human enterprise, which would much prefer to befriend a scientist than another writer. Most of McCarthy's novels are portraying about life or reality which many of them associated to ecological issue. In 1985, Blood Meridian was published. Blood Meridian portrays the desolate and indifferent 1850s Texas-Mexico borderlands. The extreme violence which takes place comments implicitly on both the environment and human nature. The novel's full title- Blood Meridian, or The Evening Redness In The West- is indicative of the novel's portrayal of the environment. A relationship between location, nature and violence is created in the symbolism of the sun as a "blood meridian". To call McCarthy's environments as constructed in Blood Meridian simply violent is an unsatisfactory conclusion. What is more appropriate and evident in the text is that man is inherently violent and the indifference of nature to this creates an amoral setting. In 1979, McCarthy published his fourth novel, Suttree. In short, Suttree tells the reader about a man named Cornelius Suttree, a fisherman, disillusioned scholar, alcoholic, nihilist, existentialist and transcendentalist. The attention to detail identified earlier in Suttree is telling in terms of his relationship with his environment. Generally, to an Ecocritical reading Suttree shows that, stripped of societal anthropocentrism, man is forced to reassess his relationship with nature. It could be said that McCarthy's prose style is often atavistic (anti-civilization, anti-materialism, anti-industrialism, anti-progress and pro-Nature) in that it both reflects natural processes and often appears primitive, stripped of culture. In 1973, Child of God was published. It was inspired by actual events in Sevier County. Child of God begins with Lester Ballard's dispossession from his parent's house. McCarthy's description of Ballard's lone nomadic wandering after he inadvertently burns down his squat uses the same free indirect discourse. Child of God can also be described as an existential text, particularly for the authenticity of its protagonist. Lester Ballard's atavistic tendencies bring him closer to an animalistic level. From those all of McCarthy's novels, The Road which was published in 2006 by Vintage book publisher is the most representative novel which is related to the study of Ecocriticism. The novel is generally thick of environments' issue. The issue for instance is the fire of woods that happened along the country which give the reader an image of burned land, ash and dust everywhere and so on. Because of this reason, the writer felt that The Road is interested to be analyzed through ecological critics. In short, the novel portrays a journey of father and son as the main character in a burned land in America. The issue of devastation of earth becomes the centre point of interest which grasps the whole setting of the novel. The Road brings the readers onto 'the future' in as much as it is set in a time after an ambiguous 'end' has occurred and society has collapsed. The reverse of the most recent reissue claims that it is the first great masterpiece of the globally warmed generation. It is also the first of McCarthy's novels to have provoked Ecocritical study. This wide appeal to the novel relies strongly on its environmental themes. The use of allusion to genre and form elsewhere in McCarthy's novels can be said to universalise his appeal but in The Road the key concern is the 21st century's most immediate global problem; the irrevocable damage global industrial capitalism is doing to our environment. It is difficult to read The Road without feeling the overwhelming cumulative force of the novel's desolation, and this desolation is most prominently present in the landscapes McCarthy portrays. The setting is almost entirely bereft of life; the little that is found is often malign humanity. The Road greatly represents a study of Ecocriticism. It portrays the colourless world because of devastation of earth. This devastation issue is common object of the Ecocriticism study. The Road continually reminds us of the bleakness of the landscape in the earth. As readers, we only experience bright colours through the characters' dreams or memories, if someone happens to bruise or bleed, or through fire or flare guns. The rest of the time we see a gray ash covering the landscape. As a reality, our landscape is actually green and natural. However, The Road shows the possibility of devastation of earth when humans did devastation to the nature and they can't live in harmony with the nature. Therefore, there is no doubt that The Road becomes the most influencing novel toward environment. It proves from the acclaim written in the novel by George Monbiot, an environmental campaigner that says "It could be the most important environmental book ever. It is a thought experiment that imagines a world without a biosphere, and shows that everything we value depends on the ecosystem." According to the brief story in background of the study that gives perception about the devastation of earth in the novel, it appears two questions as the problems: 1. How is devastation of earth depicted in Cormac McCarthy's The Road? 2. How does devastation of earth give impacts to the main characters in Cormac McCarthy's The Road? METHOD The used method is descriptive quality; it means the quality of the data becomes the reference to work rather than the quantity of the data. Besides, a technique is needed to understand the data. Technique of interpretation must be used to interpret and analyze the data. Through interpretation the analysis can be worked. Interpretation is a crucial step that has to do before analyzing the data. Then, extrinsic approach is used as an approach toward the analysis in which environment belongs to it. According to method above, the first thing that has to do is collecting data. In collecting data this research focuses on reading and documentation. Reading novel. In this step, novel becomes the object of the research. The novel is entitled The Road, written by Cormac McCarthy. To collect the correctly data, it needs reading more than once, because to get interpretation, it needs understanding all contents completely with all possibilities both intrinsically and extrinsically. Inventorying data. This step is collecting data through noting the quotations related to the statement of the problems and objectives of the study, it is including in words, sentences, and discourse that can represent devastation of earth in Cormac McCarthy's The Road. Thus, all data that will be analyzed are started and sourced through the novel's contents. Classification data. It is appropriate to the statements of the problems about devastation of earth in Cormac McCarthy's The Road. Tabling the data. It is to simplify reading the data and classify data that is used in the analysis for the readers. Continuously, the selected data or the collected data, which are related to the statements of the problems and the objectives, are analyzed through Ecocriticism in depicting the devastation of earth and its impacts to the main characters in Cormac McCarthy's The Road. MODERNISM The word "modern" closely means to up-to-date, abreast of the times, and going beyond the past in more than a temporally or chronologically literal sense (Greenberg, 1979; 2). Marshall Breman as quoted Jan Rada defines modernism as a trend of thought that affirms the power of human being to create, improve, and reshape their environment, with the aid of scientific knowledge technology and practical experimentation (2008; 6). Breman then argues that modernism is as any attempt by modern men and women to become subjects as well as objects of modernization, to be modern is to find ourselves in an environment that promises us adventure, power, joy, growth, transformation of ourselves and the world-and, at the same time, that threatens to destroy everything we have, everything we know, everything we are (Berman, 1982; 5; 14). The development of modernism emerged two poles that confront each other; science and technology and natural degradation. As Helena J. Keler explanation that the image of 'creative destruction' is very important to understanding modernity precisely because it derived from the particular dilemmas that faced the implementation of the modernist project. This destruction of a holistic universe in the modern era shatters the conception of human beings and societies as total entities, instead inaugurating an era characterized by a never-ending process of internal ruptures and fragmentations within itself (Keler, 2005: 4). According to Horkheimer and Adorno as quoted by Helena, modern capitalist society is engaged in a pattern of domination: the domination of nature by human beings, domination of nature within human beings, and this system of domination is driven by fear of the human and nonhuman unknown the Other (Keler, 2005: 3). Movement of modernism manifests itself in the self-destructive nature of symbolism: when pushed to its logical extreme, the symbolist aesthetic starts to forgo any notion of an organic, necessary relationship between signifier and signified, and simply imposes a particular motif as an arbitrary symbol of something else (Hutchinson, 2011; 58). Modernism often demonstrates the destructive rather than constructive nature. Modernists argue that the ecologically destructive projects are not viable because of climate change but modernism movement (Johnston, 2012: 207). Specifically, Barbara Rose Johnston states that Human conduct that contributes to the destruction of our ecological balance. Such interpretations of environmental change, however, can have undesirable effect of deflecting responsibility, since blame is placed on a cycle of time about which a person can do nothing (Johnston, 2012: 212). Global environmental change, which spans natural sciences, policy and development studies, is currently experiencing its first waves. Perhaps it is time to recognize that already some people are getting their feet wet. On what criteria should one decide to retreat to higher ground or stick it out unmoved until the tide turns. Modernism challenges the modern project of understanding global environmental change and doing something about it when it causes problems (Blaikie, 1996: 81). According to Piers M. Blaikie, modernism First, it challenges all embracing world views or 'meta narratives' which tend to be highly teleological and assume the validity of their underlying assumptions and their claims. Thus, the role of environmental scientists in policy making as 'talking truth to power' and as the only rational and legitimate brokers between the 'real' environment and the rest of us, is rejected. Second, it challenges the tendency that is more pronounced in areas of global environmental change where the local hands on experience of the environment (land degradation, desertification and biodiversity). Third, it challenged that reality is socially constructed. An epistemology which builds models of society and environment with causal connections is challenged by one which is constituted as a series of descriptive accounts according to different actors' perceptions (Blaikie, 1996: 81). Modernism encourages people and countries to over-exploit natural resources, and contribute to reductions in spending on social and environmental welfare (Huckle, 1999: 36). Moreover, environmental reductions being blamed on the impact of foreign cultural domination this has allegedly eroded and damaged the 'essential harmony' between humans and nature (Mawdsley, 2001: 96). Evernden contends that the second instrumental vision of control and domination over nature is the historical product of modernity, more specifically of Renaissance, when a new mode of knowledge, based on reason and experimentation replaced the medieval search for knowledge as contemplation and wisdom (1992). This argument is supported that Modernity is thus responsible for creating Nature by abstracting from nature, and with it a whole history of conquest and domination comes to be enacted. In the words of C. S. Lewis: "We reduce things to mere Nature in order that we may "conquer" them. We are always conquering Nature because "Nature" is the name for what we have, to some extent, conquered" (Lewis, 1978: 42). Latest, Environmental problems and other risks encompass less than the globally catastrophic. More and more disaster experts, development agencies, and citizens' groups are supporting that the globalisation is largely responsible for such human misery (Huckle, 1999: 36). Modernism signed by the development science and technology (Somerville, 2006: 17-18). Further, given the increasing production by technologically advanced capitalism of risks that threaten us all ironically that technology induced catastrophes and environmental disasters (Simon Cottle, 1998: 8). Since the Enlightenment, technology, especially science-based technology, has offered the promise of a better world through the elimination of disease and material improvements to standards of living. On the other hand, resource extraction, emissions of dangerous materials, and pollution of air, water, and soil have created conditions for unprecedented environmental catastrophe and have already caused irreversible damage to the biosphere (Vergragt, 2006: 7). Ironically, the persisting contradictions between a better life created and supported by technology for the wealthy few, also caused the increasing environmental degradation and persistent poverty for the vast majority calls for a deeper exploration and understanding of the nature. Philip J. Vergragt then, states that technology will support and enhance a "good life" for all of its citizens, in both rich and presently poor countries, without compromising the Earth's ecosystem or the prospects of later generations (Vergragt, 2006: 8). Thus, science and technology which shaped to the sophistication give man a power to colonize the earth. POSTCOLONIALISM Environmentalism in post-colonial discourse has its beginnings in Alfred Crosby's account of the impact of European incursions into the Americas and the Pacific (Ashcroft, 2000: 71). This incursion of course destructs not only the country; physical building and ideology but also the environment and nature. The conquest and colonization of so many extra-European environments produced irreversible changes in land use, in flora and fauna and frequently damaged beyond repair traditionally balanced relations between indigenous communities and their environments, a relationship unlike that of their conquerors crucial to their understanding of their 'being' as of the land rather than merely on it (Ashcroft, 2000: 71-72). He adds that imperial incursions and colonization have been regarded as environmentally destructive, yet as Richard Grove argues, the perception of what had already been lost in Europe, the sense of intrinsic connection between the 'more-than-human' and the human, and thus the urgency of environmental preservation became strikingly evident in Europe's colonies, particularly in the late nineteenth century. Much environmentalism in theory and practice has emanated from former imperial centres such as Europe and the United States. While belated recognition of the crucial importance of other forms of life on earth is both welcome and necessary, its export and sometimes imposition on postcolonized cultures invites the obvious charge of hypocrisy and generates resentment against former imperial states which having degraded their own and their colonies' environments in the 'interests' of progress and 'development' now encourage (or impose) the theory and practices of environmental preservation on other peoples (Ashcroft, 2000: 72). This also frequently creates division within post-colonized cultures themselves, where, for instance, peoples are moved off their traditional lands to make way for game parks, essentially for the benefit of wealthy tourists. Demands for the 'global' preservation of endangered species frequently clash with the policies of post-colonized governments eager to use their regained environmental sovereignty in the interests of a modern capitalism from which it is difficult for them to escape. Devastation of earth has highlighted how human–environmental vulnerabilities are amplified not only by anthropogenic climate change but also by the capitalist exploitation of natural resources (Carrigan, 2005: 1). Harmful environmental conduct exposes several broader dimensions such as the nation's ability to use its resources as determined by domestic political processes, such as; it changes the natural forest microclimates that have been transformed into new microclimates increasing sunlight and lowering humidity (Nazzal, 2005: 6). The ecological crisis is not merely an isolated event but has its roots in the modern materialistic civilization that makes man becomes the butcher of earth (Huggan and Tiffin, 2010: 1). They argue that one way out of this morass is to insist that the proper subject of postcolonialism is colonialism, and to look accordingly for colonial/imperial underpinnings of environmental practices in both colonising and colonised societies of the present and the past (Huggan and Tiffin, 2010: 3) Colonialism greatly changed the environmental condition of colonized country. Alfred W. Crosby (Crosby 1986) as quoted by Aschroft describes the ways in which the environments of colonized societies have been physically transformed by the experience of colonial occupation, imperialism/colonialism not only altered the cultural, political and social structures of colonized societies, but also devastated colonial ecologies and traditional subsistence patterns (Ashcroft, 2000: 69). Indirectly, colonization influences ecological changes in the past which cause ecological destruction in the present day. More importantly, based on Crosby statement in Aschroft explain that introduced crops and livestock not between colonizer and colonized country only supported conquering armies and colonizing populations, radically colonizer altered the entire ecology of the invaded lands in ways that necessarily disadvantaged indigenous peoples and annihilated or endangered native flora and fauna (2000: 69). Arguably this has led to one of the most profound ecological changes the world has seen. Colonization or colonialism can be defined as the conquest and control of other people's land and goods (Loomba, 2005: 8). Colonialism means a conquest which is done by the west or European and American country toward Asia and Africa by exploitation the land, surely it causes natural destruction. Elleke Boehmer has defined colonialism as the settlement of territory, the exploitation or development of resources, and attempts to govern the indigenous inhabitants of occupied lands (Boehmer as qtd. in McLeod 2000: 8). The term colonialism is important in defining the specific form of natural exploitation that developed with the expansion of Europe over the last 400 years (Ashcroft, 2000: 40). With the end of the cold war, global infatuation with neoliberal economics has intensified the peripheralization of the South along economic, political, social, cultural and natural lines (Geeta Chowdhry and Sheila Nair, 2002: 1). Postcolonial critique bears witness to those countries and communities - in the North and the South (Bhabha, 1994: 6). The assumption of postcolonial studies is that many of the wrongs, if not crimes, against nature are a product of the economic dominance of the north over the south (Young, 2001: 6). Thus, the Norh represents the West and the South represents the East. Postcolonialism sees the natural destruction on the South as the impacts of colonization The northern environmentalism considered as the rich (always potentially vainglorious and hypocritical) and the southern environmentalism considered as the poor (often genuinely heroic and authentic) (huggan and Tiffin, 2010: 2). However, northern needs of the natural need were supplied from the south in the name of colonization. Colonialism granted imperial powers the rights to arrogate and exploit the territory of a subject people as well as to appropriate unlimited property rights, post-colonial states acted quickly to regain control over their natural resources both through expropriation of foreign property interests and through the legal arena (Nazzal, 2005: 10). Colonialism, through both practice and discourse, has separated man from his natural surroundings and has given him a false idea about the meaning of nature: on the contrary, nature is not there to be plundered, but to be cared for, tended and made to yield its produce. Then, Man is ennobled by the relationship with the environment, by his power to make things grow and watch over their growth, but the reverse also holds true: devastation returns man to his primitive condition. It is not surprising when the the nature did reverse destruction to the humans. It is the result of what they do exploit to the nature. On the other world, man as the colonizer has colonized the earth which caused the devastation of earth. (Chrisman and Williams, 1994: 1–20). Thus, postcolonialism can be considered as umbrella term of ecocriticism in which it criticizes the relation between human and nature including criticizing humans' behaviour precisely humans' exploitation toward nature. ECOCRITICISM Humans truly can't be separated with environment. human beings are engaged in the eternal search for connection, for that which connects us to others and for that which connects us to ourselves, culture, language, history, belief systems, social practice, and other influences on human development are as much a part of place as the physical landscape one crosses (Dreese, 2002; 2-3). She emphasizes that environmental factors play a crucial role in the physical, emotional, and even spiritual configurations that determine our ideas of who we are. All human beings develop their own sense of place through life that determines why they love certain regions or feel utterly alien in others. The study of relations between humans and environment called ecology. Lawrence Buell defines ecology as the study of the interactions between organisms and the environment (Buell, 2005; 139). Meanwhile, Glen A Love defines ecology as not as merely a study of the relationship between organisms and their living and nonliving environment but also a combination of science and a sense of responsibility for life (2003; 37-38). Ecology as Lawrence Buell say above is drawn in the life circle; the life processes of many organisms put into their surroundings environment whose presence of other organism affects the life processes of these and other organisms sharing the same environment. When these processes are cut by such destruction, e.g. chemical by-products of the life processes of one species (or occupational group) are harmful to another species; the relationship between the two species is "antagonistic." Increased population density increases the probability of antagonistic interactions (Catton, 1994: 80). It is essential to be aware of the environmental damage which caused by ecological changes. The development of humans' ecology slowly damages the environment. The ecology of human development involves the scientific study of the progressive, mutual accommodation between an active, growing human being and the changing properties of the immediate settings (Bronfenbrenner, 1979: 21). Imbalance fine relations between humans and environment emerged a critic called ecocritic or ecocriticism (Buell, 2005; 2). John Elder as quoted by Dana Philip says that The science of ecology confirms the indivisibility of natural process: each feature of a landscape must be understood with reference to the whole, just as the habits of each creature reflect, and depend upon, the community of life around it (1999; 581). Ecology when it counts as science tends to be a lot more reductive, thus many of the core concepts of ecology once notable for their expansiveness have in recent years been cut down to size, made more particular, or abandoned altogether. It now appears that even the ecosystem concept may not be valid biologically, but valid concept or not, an ecosystem is primarily a theoretical entity, and therefore could never be the reality that somehow underwrites poetry, even if that poetry is of the good old-fashioned, supposedly "organic" sort (Philip, 1999; 582). By that kind of reason, Elder argues that culture too may be understood organically: it is the field of relationship between organisms and, as such, a complex organism in its own right (Philip, 1999; 582). Ecology is not merely bound to science and technology, but also moral and politic. Greg Garrard assumes that ecology itself is shifting and contested, the emphasis on the moral and political orientation of the ecocritic and the broad specification of the field of study are essential (2004; 4). Problems of ecology are features of our society, arising out of our dealings with nature, from which we should like to free ourselves, and which we do not regard as inevitable consequences of what is good in that society (Garrard, 2004; 5). Lynn white, Jr argues in his article on Cheryll Glotfelty's The Ecocriticism reader: landmark in literary ecology that environmental crisis is fundamentally a matter of the beliefs and values that direct science and technology and dominating attitude toward nature (1996; 4). Discoveries in ecology and cellular biology revolutionize our sense of self, teaching us that there is no such thing as an individual, only an individual-in-context (Neil Evernden, 1996; 93). Discoveries of course get much of invention. Unconsciously, humans' behaviour (ex: exploitation) toward environment was changed. Industrial Revolution affected humanity's conception of its relationship to nature, warning that technology has created the false illusion that we control nature, allowing us to forget that our "unconquerable minds" are vitally dependent upon natural support systems (Harold Fromm, 1996; 31) Ecocritic or Ecocriticism is an umbrella term, used to refer to the environmentally oriented study of literature and (less often) the arts more generally, and to the theories that underlie such critical practice (Buell, 2005; 138). Cheryll Glotfelty simply writes the definition, ecocriticism is the study of the relationship between literature and the physical environment, ecocriticism takes an earth-centered approach to literary studies (1996: xviii). Ecocriticism might succinctly be defined as study of the relation between literature and environment conducted in a spirit of commitment to environmental praxis (Lawrence Buell as quoted by Dana Philip, 1999; 583). Ecocriticism is, then, an avowedly political mode of analysis, ecocritics generally tie their cultural analyses explicitly to a 'green' moral and political agenda. In this respect, ecocriticism is closely related to environmentally oriented developments in philosophy and political theory (Greg Garrard, 2004; 3) Ecocentrism is more compelling as a call to fellow humans to recognize the intractable, like-it-or-not interdependence that subsists between the human and the nonhuman and to tread more lightly on the earth than it is as a practical program (Lawrence Buell, 2005, 102). Ecological criticism shares the fundamental premise that human culture is connected to the physical world, affecting it and affected by it. Ecocriticism takes as its subject the interconnections between nature and culture, specifically the cultural artefacts of language and literature (Cheryll Glotfelty, 1996; xix). The majority of ecocritics, whether or not they theorize their positions, look upon their texts of reference as refractions of physical environments and human interaction with those environments, notwithstanding the artifactual properties of textual representation and their mediation by ideological and other socio-historical factors (Lawrence Buell , 2005; 30). Literary theory, in general, examines the relations between writers, texts, and the world. In most literary theory "the world" is synonymous with society-the social sphere. Ecocriticism expands the notion of "the world" to include the entire ecosphere or nonhuman, which is physical environment. Several things that have to be seen are: • Transforming this concept becomes social movement that will bring the humans into conscious of the equality between human and their environment and doesn't consider the nature into binary opposition between dominate and dominated. • Ecocriticism encourages the changing of canonisation through entering literary works which carry up natural issue. • Ecocriticism is not only an approach but also a pendadogis tool. • Ecocriticism connects the literary study with the earth to see how is the relation between humans and earth where they stand (Cheryll Glotfelty, 1996, xxii) The majority of ecocritics, whether or not they theorize their positions, look upon their texts of reference as refractions of physical environments and human interaction with those environments, notwithstanding the artifactual properties of textual representation and their mediation by ideological and other sociohistorical factors (Buell, 2005; 30). It can be assumed that Ecocrtiticism sees the text as the refraction of physical environment. Another denigrates attempts to recuperate realism as restricting the field of environmental writing, as ludicrously foreshortened in focus ("its practitioners . . . reduced to an umpire's role, squinting to see if a given depiction of a horizon, a wildflower, or a live oak tree is itself well painted and lively"), and in any case bogus, since "mimesis presumes the sameness of the representation and the represented object" (Phillips 2003: 163–4, 175). Buell has added that this is a conviction that contact (or lack ofcontact) with actual environments is intimately linked, even if not on a one-to-one basis, with the work of environmental imagination, for both writer and critic (Buell, 2005; 31). Ecocriticism can explore what we can call a discursively manipulated nonhuman world in literature, and discuss how it gets marginalized or silenced by, or incorporated into the human language (Legler, I997: 227). Nonhuman environment must be represented as an active presence and player within the text made some astute readers inclined to be sympathetic of the environment (Buell, 2005: 51). The task of ecocriticism, then, is to formulate a conceptual foundation for the study of interconnections between literature and the environment. Literature can be perceived as an aesthetically and culturally constructed part of the environment, since it directly addresses the questions of human constructions, such as meaning, value, language, and imagination, which can, then, be linked to the problem of ecological consciousness that humans need to attain. Within this framework, ecocritics are mainly concerned with how literature transmits certain values contributing to ecological thinking (Glotfelty, 1996: xxi). Ecocriticism offers researcher a way how to analyze such literary work through three steps. First is seeing the representation of nonhuman aspect. This first step is looking how is the nature like rice field, village, wilderness, forest, sea, beach, hill, mountain, valley, river, animal (or treatment toward animal) and city environment pictured in the text. Second is seeing the accusation toward ecology issues. The second step destructs how the natural issue is portrayed with the different way. For instance, the nature is pictured as an inconvenient place again for humans because of the emergence the new value; technology, capitalism, extinction of local knowledge, and development of building which is not oriented to the environment. Last is taking part of text's ideology. In this case examines the relations between writers, texts, and the world. This third step is seeing and taking part of the ideology that contains in the text. How the author's view and commitment toward the nature (Cheryll Glotfelty, 1996, xix). DEVASTATION OF EARTH Those all theories mentioned above are related to the word "devastation" which happened on earth. Modernism granted colonizer a power to devastate the earth in which postcolonialism and ecocriticism tend to criticize that devastation. Certainly, what is actually the meaning of devastation of earth? The word "devastation" itself according to Merriam-Webster dictionary means the state or fact of being rendered nonexistent, physically unsound, or useless. In other word, devastation is deterioration, destruction, vanishing of the earth through depletion of resources such as air, water and soil. Devastation of earth can be defined as a destruction of ecosystems and the extinction of wildlife. Devastation of earth is a term used to describe a situation in which a part of the natural environment (the earth) is devastated or damaged. According to Shakhashiri, earth is areas of land as distinguished from sea and air (2011: 1). It means that the earth is composed by three parts; land, sea and air. Thus, it can be ascertained that if the devastation happened on earth, it will strike those all of earth's parts. The devastation which strikes the air will harm the condition of air in the atmosphere or known as devastated atmosphere, devastation which strikes the land will harm the condition of the soil and change it into erode and barren, and devastation which strike the water will contaminate the clean water into the dirty one. The earth as mentioned above that composed from three parts; certainly those each parts have a role. Land is the surface of the earth where the creatures are growing and developing; the plantations (trees) grow well, the animals breed and the humans dwell the life. Air is the mixture of gases which surrounds the Earth in which it contains a lot of vital substances such as oxygen and ozone. And water is a clear liquid, without colour or taste, which falls from the sky as rain and is necessary for animal and plant even human life. Water is also available in the river and sea. All of those parts of the earth greatly have advantage when it states in the normal/natural condition. However, when it was devastated, the earth turns into less natural and more miserable. That is the picture of the devastation of earth. DEPICTION OF DEVASTATION OF EARTH The devastation of earth as Hughes says has happened in every historical period and in every part of the inhabited Earth (2001: 1). It means that devastation of earth happened in the whole surface of the earth. Devastation has stroked the whole environment; atmosphere, land, and sea. Postcolonialism argues that colonialism has an intervention on devastating the earth. Colonialism has devastated the earth as Ashcroft says that the conquest and colonization of so many extra-European environments produced irreversible changes in land use, in flora and fauna and frequently damaged beyond repair traditionally balanced relations between indigenous communities and their environments (2000: 71-72). He adds that imperial incursions and colonization have been regarded as environmentally destructive. Devastation of earth happened over earth. It means that devastation happened on land, atmosphere and sea. The land has changed into gullied, eroded and barren. This changing surely as the impact of devastation of earth which is done by the colonizer in colonizing the land. Everything which stands on the land has changed, There was no reborn flora and fauna in McCarthy's The Road. However, the presence of the flora and fauna is the rest of the previous world. Indeed these flora and fauna have changed as the impact of colonialism. Flora in McCarthy's The Road is dominated by the trees. However, most of the trees have changed into gray, dark and black. It is so pathetic when the father and his son faced the standing black trees and they realized that it changes. Horribly, it seems like ghost of trees. The changing of the trees is not underlined on the changes of its colour but also its presence. It means that the trees are not only changing into dark and black with its standing but also there are many trees which die and fall to the ground. The changes of fauna can be seen when the father and his son was camp in the forest and listening for any sound, it draws that the bird has changed its behaviour by holding migratory to circle the earth. The birds can no longer life in harmony with the environment by occupying the forest. It is caused the changing of trees which turn into dead. Thus, it forces the birds to change themselves. Other fauna changing draws when the father who found an odor of cows. However, the cows are extinct since years ago. He asked to himself whether the cows are really real or not. He finally realized that it is extinct. It shows that the cows are changed from the presence to absence. The burning of a certain thing; such as the trees, surely produces a residue or combustion. It can be carbon and ash. It can be imagined how large the amount of ash will be produced if the whole land of forest were burned. Certainly, the ash will cover everything that has seen. A horrible fire of forest has produced a horrible ash too till everything is covered by ash. The ash has moved along the wind till it covered the city and everything in the city, The fire of forest makes the amount of ash become uncontrolled. The moving of ash filled the air and atmosphere in which it makes everything coloured covered by ash and dust. Hence, everything becomes colourless. The ash changes the landscape become gray. It can be assumed that the graying landscape is no other causing by the moving ash. The occupying of ash in the atmosphere makes the day become unseen and dark. The result of the residual combustion is not ashes merely, but also carbons that harm the environment. Ash and carbon both fill and occupy the atmosphere. As the greenhouse effect idea, that the ash and carbon also dust which in a large amount and uncontrolled in atmosphere will form a mantle which wrapped out the whole of earth. This causes our sight of the sky become dark and gray.The sky and cloud are devoured with ash. The cloud becomes ashen and gray. Severity, the ash and carbon have contaminated everything in the air including the sea water vapor. Then, the result is clouds of ash. Ash and dust have affected the form of the cloud to become gray. Probably its content has been also affected. When the clouds changes into gray, it can be predicted that the rainwater which come down from the clouds will also be gray. It is supported with the presence of the ash mantle that wrapped up the earth. Certainly, everything which come down from the sky; rainwater has to pass this mantle, consequently the rain water will be coloured as gray by the ash mantle. The ash mantle has coloured the rain water. The rainwater which drips down to the earth is seen as the gray sheets of rain. Rainwater that is usually used by humans to fulfil their needs such as to irrigate the fields has been contaminated by ash and carbon so that its contents no longer can be used for the benefit of man. Consequently, there will be no crops and there will be no natural food. Mantle of ash has blanketed the earth during the unknown time. As described above that everything which fell from the sky will pass this mantle so that everything will be contaminated by it. The result, everything which fell will be gray. After several days the father and his son watched the gray sheets of rain, the weather quickly changes into snowy. Everyone knows as it has seen that snow is falling from the sky. The snow actually is similar to the rain, including their formed and their fell. The sea water vapor which is formed into cloud in the sky will fall as the rainwater, however, because of the extreme/cold weather, the rain water freeze into ice and it changes into snow that is white and soft. This falling snow of course has to pass the mantle of ash and it changes into gray. The next devastation of earth is turned to everything which lay on the surface of the earth covered by darkness as the ash effect. Everything stands in the earth turned to be black such as the dead trees which burned by fire forest, and the rain water and snow which fell as gray turn into black in the land. The dead trees which burned by fire forest surely create a black view of trees. The trees which burned in incompletely will make an appearance of burnt and black trees. The rainwater and snow which are grey in their falling turned to be black in the land. The large number of those rainwater and snow gathered as one in the ground create a new colour, more intense and black. The gray flakes which fell down turned to the dark slush. Dark slush can be assumed as the slush which is thicker than a flake. Thus, the slush which is as the result of flakes changes into black. It is also applied in the rainwater; the water in the land is not the whole from the rainwater, some from the river and so on. However, the thick rainwater which fell down in gray proved that its water is dominated to black water. the slush which is melted flows through the ash and turned to the black water. THE IMPACTS OF DEVASTATION OF EARTH ON FATHER'S ATTITUDE Living and dwelling in such devastated earth surely give impacts to the humans who walk over it. The father and his son reveal those kinds of impacts. The father who lived before and after unknown disaster seems undergoing a lot of impacts. It is different with his son who born after that disaster. He tends to be innocent, only watch and observe what his father did. There was an idea to end the life when the father still lived with his woman. She always forces him to end their life because there was nothing else to do in the ruined world. However, the father keep his believe that humans have to struggle. The experience of dwelling the life before the unknown disaster made him stronger. The father realized that what the environment did to him is the result what the humans did to the environment, as Lawrence Buell says that human culture is connected to the physical world; nature and environment, affecting it and affected by it. In other word, humans have affected the environment and have been affected by environment. The woman forces him because they lived in unusual life, they lived like zombie. The devastation of earth causes their life as like as zombie or walking dead in a horror film which the father and his son have a role as the victims. They have to avoid even to face the zombie to keep alive. Dwelling the life in such devastated earth; the air was filled by the ash and dust forces them to wear a mask. The devastated earth; unfriendly air forces him to wear mask (canister mask) and even wear biohazard suit. As the affection of the devastated earth, the father and his son have to worry their life, Mostly he worried about their shoes. Worrying is something that the father in his son has to do. There is no certainty living in such ruined world. It is a common thing for them to worry anytime, worrying of food and shoes. Food is essential thing to keep alive. It is the reason why they worry of food. If they can't find some foods, it means they will die. The shoes are important stuff to hold a journey. As explain before that the weather extremely changes a while. Few days were raining, and another was snowing. Shoes keep the father in his son feet to keep away from coldness and freezing which can take their life. The weather is extremely cold. It is not surprising that the weather turns to colder and colder. The weather has changed anytime; sometime it rains and often snow. The coldness of weather doesn't only force them to eat the food that already fermented as above but also threaten their life. The coldness is very extremely danger for them. Moreover it is pictured that the cold can crack the stone and takes their life off. In such condition surely makes them hard to breathe because in the coldness the air contains thin oxygen. Dwelling the life in such devastated earth actually makes him aware of surrounding even the weather. The sounds like forest fire, fallen trees, and so on makes his ears disturbed and consequently he has to keep awake. Living in such devastated earth makes him to be more aware toward everything that threatens them. The father and his son have experienced many kinds of problems. Everything that happened to him does not break his spirit to keep alive even when they are in starving. He always believes that he would find something to eat. the father always optimistic dwelling life. the devastated earth makes him become more optimistic. Struggle is a must to do to find another thing to be eaten to keep the life. Keep trying is the key for the good guys who living in the ruined environment. By keeping trying, they can survive dwelling the life in such environment. Keep trying is not enough to live in such devastated earth. Always suspect the possibility that may happen has to be done, because no one knows what will happen, but the threat of nature always happen all the time. Thus, another thing that has to do is to remain vigilant about the environment. The devastated earth forces him to become "cautious, watchful" and always "on the lookout". He believes that no one expect a trouble. However, living in the devastated earth, the thing that has to do is to always expect it. Thus he was always wary of something bad that may happen. Nothing can be expected from the nature. The father always believed it. He no longer agrees if people prepare something for tomorrow. Although he always optimistic of what he did, he never believed it. For him, even though he's preparing for tomorrow, he doesn't believe that the nature will prepare for him. What the father believes that is now or tomorrow is the same. This belief keeps the father spirit to face his following days. As a father he would often feel the pain. Physically, he is ill of facing the devastated earth. And mentally, he is ill of the feeling of bearing the responsibility as a father who is responsible for the survival of his son and his own life. However nature should never take the life of his son. He would bet his life for the life of his son. Often he complains to himself about his illness. He pretends as tough man in front his son but actually he felt tremendous pain. It's just that he does not want his son to know. THE IMPACTS OF DEVASTATION OF EARTH ON SON'S ATTITUDE Being born in the devastated earth which the unknown disaster has swept it surely affects the son's behaviour toward environment. The greyscale image of environment has saved well in his mind that forces him to expect something else, something in colour. When they continue their journey, the son had found some crayons. These crayons change his mind that something left on earth in colour. Thus, environment is not filling of gray merely. The crayons seem like a hope for
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Text finalised on December 15th, 2023. This document is the result of collective reflection on the part of the CIDOB research team.Coordinated and edited by Carme Colomina, it includes contributions from Inés Arco, Anna Ayuso, Ana Ballesteros, Pol Bargués, Moussa Bourekba, Víctor Burguete, Anna Busquets, Javier Carbonell, Carmen Claudín, Francesc Fàbregues, Oriol Farrés, Agustí Fernández de Losada, Marta Galceran, Blanca Garcés, Seán Golden, Berta Güell, Julia Lipscomb, Bet Mañé, Ricardo Martínez, Esther Masclans, Óscar Mateos, Sergio Maydeu, Pol Morillas, Diego Muro, Francesco Pasetti, Héctor Sánchez, Reinhard Schweitzer, Antoni Segura, Cristina Serrano, Eduard Soler i Lecha, Alexandra Vidal and Pere Vilanova. 2024 will be a year of ballots and bullets. The elections held in more than 70 countries will serve as a stress test for the democratic system, and the impact of the multiple conflicts stoking global instability will shape a world in the throes of a global power shift and a clear regression in terms of humanitarianism and fundamental rights.The erosion of international norms is more acute than ever, and events become more unpredictable. 2024 begins wide open, marked by an increasingly diverse and (dis)organised world, with hanging interests and alliances in issues such as geopolitical competition, green and digital transitions, or international security.The economic consequences of the succession of crises of recent years will be more visible in 2024: economic growth will be weak, and China's downturn will reverberate in emerging economies, in a climate of rapid tightening of financial conditions and a strong dollar. 2024 will be a year of ballots and bullets, a stress test both for the democratic system and for the multiple conflicts stoking global instability. We still face a world in disarray, in upheaval and in dispute. This time, however, any analysis hangs on the huge question mark of the intense series of elections that will shape the coming year. With all-out hostilities in Ukraine, Palestine, Sudan or Yemen, we are seeing the most active conflicts of any time since the end of the Second World War. How the various armed conflicts and the outcome of the more than 70 elections marked on the calendar impact one another will set the geopolitical agenda for the coming months.There are elections that can turn the course of a war. The political fallout of the brutal Israeli offensive in Gaza or the stalemate on the Ukraine front also depend on the presidential race in the United States. The cracks in transatlantic unity and the increasingly direct accusations of double standards in the West's loyalties are not unrelated to what happens in the United States on November 5th, 2024. A return of Donald Trump to the White House would bring a drastic shift in the power relations and Washington's position in each of these conflicts, from weapons' supplies to the Ukrainian government or the support for Israel, to confrontation with Russia and China.Yet it is not only about the future of US democracy; over 4 billion people will go to the polls in more than 70 countries. The European Union (EU), India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Taiwan, Mexico, Venezuela or Senegal, for instance: major actors that wield demographic or geopolitical clout will mark a year of unprecedented electoral intensity and shape a world in the throes of a global power shift and a clear regression in terms of humanitarianism and fundamental rights. More elections do not mean more democracy, however. We live in an age of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and extremely sophisticated manipulation that threatens the integrity of the ballot box. Hybrid systems are gaining ground, and it remains to be seen whether the cycle of elections in 2024 will signal a moment of deep degradation for democracy or a moment of resistance.The sensation of disorder is not new, nor even its quickening pace. But every year the erosion of current international norms is more marked, and events become more unpredictable. The world is increasingly decentralised, diversified and multidimensional. This "multiplex order", as Amitav Acharya described it in 2017, is cementing, because everything is happening simultaneously. And yet this reshaping of the world is still wide open because several struggles are playing out at once.
1. More conflict, more impunity2023 has been one of the most conflictive years in the world since the end of World War II. In just twelve months, political violence has increased by 27%. It grew in intensity and frequency. The war in Gaza brought 2023 to a close, with over 17,000 dead accounted for so far, warnings from the United Nations of the risk of humanitarian collapse and genocide of the Palestinian population trapped in the Strip, and the standoff between the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the UN secretary general, António Guterres, to try to secure a ceasefire. In this ongoing crisis of the liberal order and amid discussion over the validity of international law, Israel has dealt a severe blow to the credibility of the United Nations. The Security Council has become an instrument of paralysis; a pincer in the service of the interests of old powers that have led Guterres to publicly acknowledge his frustration and sense of impotence. A politically weakened United Nations clings to its humanitarian action on the ground to try to make the difference between life and death. At least 130 UN humanitarian workers have lost their lives in Gaza since October 7th, the highest number of UN fatalities in a conflict in its history. 2023 has been a violent year. It is estimated that 1 in 6 people in the world have been exposed to conflict in the last twelve months. The sense of impunity and disregard for international law has escalated. Not only in Gaza. The entrenchment of the war in Ukraine; the expulsion of the ethnic Armenian population from Nagorno Karabakh; or the succession of coups in six African countries in the last 36 months are a clear illustration of this moment of "deregulation of the use of force", which has been crystallising over years of erosion of international norms. And if in late 2023 we saw the departure of the international troops from the G5 Sahel deployed to Burkina Faso and Niger, as had already occurred the previous year with the expulsion of the French forces from Mali, in 2024 it will be the United Nations mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) that will have to leave the country before February 29th. Human Rights Watch has called the withdrawal a "catastrophic abdication" because it increases the risk of large-scale atrocities and abuses in a scenario of civil war, ethnic cleansing and famine that has forced more than 7 million people to flee their homes, making Sudan the country with the highest number of internally displaced persons in the world.And yet the international struggle to curtail impunity will be equipped with new tools in 2024. As of January 1st, the Ljubljana - The Hague Convention on International Cooperation in the Investigation and Prosecution of the Crime of Genocide, Crimes against Humanity, War Crimes and other International Crimes could be signed (and ratified) by the United Nations member states that wish to join. It is the primary treaty for fighting impunity for international crimes and facilitates cooperation among states in the judicial investigation of these crimes, it ensures reparation for victims and streamlines extradition. At the same time, the UN is also drafting a Convention on crimes against humanity with the aim of creating a treaty that is binding in international law, especially in a climate marked by an increase in these crimes in countries like Myanmar, Ukraine, Sudan or Ethiopia. The United Nations General Assembly will assess the progress of the negotiations in autumn 2024. It will all coincide with the 30th anniversary of the Rwanda genocide.In March 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, for war crimes in Ukraine, to no effect so far. But should Putin decide to attend the next G20 summit in Brazil in November 2024, it would present a challenge to the host country since, unlike last year's host India, Brazil is a party to the Rome Statute of 1998, the international treaty that led to the creation of the ICC. While President Lula da Silva initially said Putin would not be arrested if he attends the summit, he later rowed back, stating that the decision would fall to the Brazilian justice system and not the government. Despite the pessimism these treaties might produce, in recent months we have seen how, following the Azerbaijani military offensive in Nagorno Karabakh, Armenia signed the ICC's Rome Statute in November, acquiring member status as of February 2024. In addition, in late 2023 South Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, the Comoros and Djibouti called for an International Criminal Court investigation into war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Palestine. In November 2023, the French judicial authorities issued an international arrest warrant for the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad – rehabilitated back into the Arab League the same year, more than a decade after being thrown out – and for several of his generals over the use of chemical weapons against their own people in 2013.2. Democracy under scrutinyMore than 4 billion people will go to the polls in 76 countries, which amounts to nearly 51% of the world's population. While most of the people in these countries will vote in full or flawed democracies, one in four voters will take part in ballots in hybrid and/or authoritarian regimes. In countries such as Russia, Tunisia, Algeria, Belarus, Rwanda or Iran the leaderships will use these elections to try to tighten their grip on power and gain legitimacy in the eyes of their citizens, while the other half of the electorate will exercise their right to vote in countries that have undergone democratic erosion or displayed illiberal tendencies in recent years, like the United States or India.The close of 2023 saw the inauguration of the "anarcho-capitalist" Javier Milei as Argentina's president, confirming the deep crisis of traditional parties and the rise of radical agendas, from Nayib Bukele's aggressively punitive approach in El Salvador ―who will seek re-election in 2024―, to Popular Renewal bursting onto the electoral scene in Peru, following the party's refoundation by the current mayor of Lima, Rafael López Aliaga. They are extreme responses to the various political, economic and security crisis situations. In Europe, there were mixed results at the polls, with victory for the Polish opposition, on one hand, and a win for the Islamophobic Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, on the other. The rapid succession of elections in 2024 will be decisive in determining whether the protest, fragmentation and rise of political extremism that have transformed democracies worldwide are reinforced or whether the system weathers the storm.The votes of women and young people will be key in this test of democracy. They were in Poland, punishing the reactionary polices of the Law and Justice Party (PiS). In Brazil or Austria, for example, men's support of far-right forces is 16 percentage points higher than that of women. In Mexico, the ballot in June 2024 will elect a woman as the country's president for the first time in its history. The two candidates are Claudia Sheinbaum, a former mayor of the capital, for the ruling leftist party Morena, and Xóchitl Gálvez, for the opposition coalition Broad Front for Mexico, which brings together the conservative National Action Party (PAN) and the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party), among others. In the United States, the mobilisation of young Latinos will be particularly important. More than 4.7 million young Hispanics have obtained the right to vote in the last few years and they will play a significant role in key states like Nevada or Arizona. While this cohort tends to have a progressive stance and leanings, their view of the dominant parties is complex: questions of identity, discrimination or racism colour their relationships with both the Democrats and the Republicans and they reject political identification, reinforcing the idea that polarisation in the United States is more apparent among politicians than among their voters. Despite that, the fear of unfair elections has increased dramatically (from 49% in 2021 to 61% in 2023). Although US voters still perceive economic inequality as the main threat (69%), probably the greatest challenge in this election race is the presence of Donald Trump, not only because his immediate future is in the hands of the courts but also because if he does become the Republican presidential nominee, it will mean that the party has decided to place its future in the hands of the man who tried to overturn the results of the election four years ago and who the Congress committee to investigate the storming of the Capitol on January 6th, 2020, accused of "insurrection". January will see the start of the state primaries and caucuses. But with the final nominees still to be decided, according to the polls the scenario of an electoral contest between two candidates approaching or in their eighties currently favours Trump. Meanwhile, the date of the former president's trial can get dangerously close to the Super Tuesday, scheduled for March 5, the day on which 13 states vote in the Republican primaries.An investigation by The Guardian with the University of Chicago found that 5.5% of Americans, or 14 million people, believe that the use of force is justified to restore Donald Trump to the presidency, while 8.9% of Americans, or 23 million people, believe that force is justified to prevent him from being president. It is not an isolated trend. The risk of political instability and violence related to electoral processes is on the rise, as the Kofi Annan Foundation confirms.The future of the European Union, which is facing the winter with two wars on its doorstep, will also be decided at the ballot box. Apart from the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held from June 6th to 9th, 2024, 12 member states are also going to the polls. The general elections in Belgium, Portugal or Austria will be a good gauge of the strength of the far right, which is shaping up as one of the winners in the elections to the European Parliament. If the vote in 2019 spelled the end of the grand coalition that had guaranteed social democrats and Christian democrats a majority in the chamber since the European Parliament's beginnings, the big question now is knowing just how far right the European Union will swing.The latest voting intention projections show significant results for the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, home of extreme-right parties like Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) and Alternative for Germany (AfD), which would win as many as 87 seats and surpass the other family on the radical right, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), led by the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, which would go from 66 MEPs at present to 83. Despite the loss of seats for the traditional forces, the European People's Party (EPP) will remain the EU's main political family. So, one of the questions in 2024 is whether the EPP, led by the Bavarian Manfred Weber, would be ready to seek a possible majority with the radical right.The new majorities will be crucial to determining the future of European climate commitments, continued aid to Ukraine and urgent institutional reforms to facilitate the accession of future members. The EU must deliver on the promise of enlargement, but it is increasingly ill-prepared to carry it through.Four candidate countries to join the EU will hold elections in 2024: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, North Macedonia, and Georgia, as well as the question mark hanging over the staging of elections in Ukraine. According to its constitution, Ukraine should hold elections in March 2024. But under martial law, imposed in the wake of Russia's invasion in 2022, with part of the electorate reluctant to vote in such exceptional circumstances and 8 million Ukrainian refugees outside the country, Volodymyr Zelensky already said in November that it was not "the right time" to go to the polls.The United Kingdom too, in the throes of a political and social crisis could hold early general elections, which are scheduled for January 2025. With the Conservatives facing a challenging scenario against the Labour Party headed by Keir Starmer, the current prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has the power to call the election at a time of his choosing at any point before then. Another issue is Libya. Since the United Nations plan to stage elections was postponed indefinitely in 2021, the inability to reach an agreement between the members of the two governments in the east and west of the country has put the possible date for elections back again, to 2024.There will be 16 elections in Africa, although only six of them will take place in countries considered to be democratic. Thirty years after the 1994 elections in South Africa, which marked the beginning of a democratic journey dominated since then by the African National Congress (ANC), the political landscape is beginning to change. The 2024 general elections may confirm the weakening of power and support for the ANC, while the main opposition parties seek alliances to present an alternative. In addition, the complicated economic situation, combined with other factors such as corruption, has led to the growing popularity of extremist parties.Also in India, the opposition presents itself more united than ever against Narendra Modi seeking to renew a third term in the spring. Boosted by nationalism, polarization, and disinformation, Modi will showcase the country's economic and geopolitical achievements. In 2023 India surpassed China as the most populous country in the world.Finally, it also remains to be seen what degree of participation the Venezuelan opposition might have in the presidential elections agreed with Nicolás Maduro for the second half of the year. For now, the internal panorama has become even more strained with the intensification of the territorial conflict with Guyana and the mobilization of the army.
3. From information overload to social disconnection Societies are increasingly weary, overwhelmed by the saturation of content and exhausted by the speed of the changes they must assimilate. Political and electoral uncertainty and the multiple conflicts that will shape 2024 will only widen the distance between society, institutions and political parties. The number of people who say they "avoid" the news remains close to all-time highs and is particularly prominent in Greece (57%), Bulgaria (57%), Argentina (46%) or the United Kingdom (41%). The main reasons? The excessive repetition of certain news stories and the emotional impact they can have on the population's mental health. In particular, according to the Reuters Institute, this fatigue is prompted by issues such as the war in Ukraine (39%), national politics (38%) and news related to social justice (31%), with high levels of politicisation and polarisation. The echoes of the COVID-19 pandemic, images of war-related violence and the economic impact of such events on increasingly adverse living standards for the population have magnified this trend towards disconnection, aggravated by a sense of loneliness and polarisation. Yet this drop in news consumption has gone hand in hand with greater use of social networks: younger generations, for example, are increasingly likely to pay more attention to influencers than to journalists. At the same time, there is growing fragmentation on the social networks. The migration of users to Instagram or TikTok has also changed the way current affairs are consumed, with a prioritisation of leisure over news content. It is not just a voluntary rejection of information; this tendency to disconnect has also led to a reduction in the social participation and involvement in online debates that had characterised the Arab Springs, the MeToo movement or Black Lives Matter. Nearly half of open social networks users (47%) no longer participate in or react to the news. But, moreover, the disconnect from the news is also linked to the political disconnection and social shifts that have clearly altered electoral behaviour. Demographic changes related to technology use and an environment of constant volatility have also resulted in a drop in voter loyalty and that has contributed to the crisis of the traditional parties. The identity element of belonging to a party has changed among young people. Identification is built on stances on issues such as climate change, immigration, racism, women's or LGBTQIA+ rights or even the conflict between Israel and Palestine. Some 65% of American adults say they always or often feel exhausted when thinking about politics. According to the Pew Research Center, six out of ten Americans of voting age admit to having little or no confidence in the future of their country's political system. And this discontent extends to the three branches of government, the current political leaders and candidates for public office. When asked to sum up their feelings about politics in a word, 79% are negative or critical. The most frequently repeated words are "divisive", "corrupt", "chaos" or "polarised", and they complain that conflicts between Republicans and Democrats receive too much attention and there is too little attention paid "to the important issues facing the country". The paradox, however, is that this discontent has coincided with historically high levels of voter turnout over the last few years. The question is whether there will be a repeat of this in the presidential elections in November, especially when they reflect another element of generational disaffection: gerontocracy. The average age of global leaders is 62. In young people's view, the traditional political parties have failed to articulate a direct form of communication, increasing the sense of disconnection between society, politicians and institutions. In this context, a repeat of the Biden-Trump confrontation in 2024 would emphasize the extreme polarization between Republicans and Democrats in an electoral cycle considered risky. Abortion rights and security remain strong mobilization points for voters.Sometimes, however, the disconnection can be forced and in this case a news blackout becomes a weapon of repression and censorship or freedom of expression. Iran, India and Pakistan were the three countries with most new internet restrictions in the first half of 2023, and all three are holding elections in 2024. With the rise and consolidation of AI, disinformation will be an additional challenge in this "super election year". The rapid progress of AI, particularly generative AI, may cast an even longer shadow over trust in information and electoral processes. The refinement of deepfakes, quick and easy creation of images, text, audios files or propaganda by AI and a growing dependence on social media to check and research facts form a breeding ground for disinformation at time when there is still no effective control of these technologies. Perhaps that is why the Merriam-Webster dictionary's word of the year for 2023 is "authentic". With the prelude of "post-truth" in 2016, technology's capacity to manipulate facts has no precedent, from the authenticity of an image to the writing of an academic work. Hence more than half of social media users (56%) say they doubt their own capacity to identify the difference between what is real and fake in news on the internet.4. Artificial intelligence: explosion and regulation 2023 was the year that generative AI burst into our lives; the year that ChatGPT was presented to society, which in January, just two months after its launch, already had 100 million users. In August, it hit 180 million. Yet the revolution also brought a new awareness of the risks, acceleration and transformation involved in a technology that aspires to match, or even improve or surpass human intelligence. That is why 2024 will be a crucial year for AI regulation. The foundations have already been laid. It only remains to review the different initiatives under way. The most ambitious is that of the European Union, which is resolved to become the first region in the world to equip itself with a comprehensive law to regulate artificial intelligence and lead the coming leap forward. The EU has opted to categorise the risks (unacceptable, high, limited or minimal) posed by the use of AI systems and will require a "fundamental rights impact assessment" be carried out before a "high-risk" AI system can be put on the market. The agreement reached in December will be ratified in the first quarter of 2024 and give way to a period of two years before its full implementation in 2026.Almost at the eleventh hour too, on December 1st of 2023 the G7 agreed international guidelines for artificial intelligence developers and users, particularly for generative AI, mentioning the need to introduce measures to deal with disinformation. G7 leaders see it as one of the chief risks because of possible manipulation of public opinion on the eve of a year of global election overdrive.But the debate on governance goes hand in hand with a geopolitical race to lead technological innovation and, unlike the EU, in the case of the United States and China that also means development of its military application. Both countries are looking to bolster their leadership. The first international AI safety summit, called by the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, became a meeting point of major global powers – both public and private; techno-authoritarian or open – trying to regulate or influence the debates on regulation under way. A second in-person summit will take place in Seoul and a third one in Paris, both in 2024 . For now, the "Bletchley Declaration" is on the table, a document signed by 28 countries that gathers the pledge to tackle the main risks of artificial intelligence, an agreement to examine tech companies' AI models before they are launched and a deal to assemble a global panel of experts on artificial intelligence inspired by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel of Experts on Climate Change (IPCC) . In addition, at the US Embassy in London, 31 countries signed a parallel (non-binding) agreement to place limits on the military use of AI. China, for its part, continues to move towards its goal of reaching 70% self-sufficiency in critical technologies by 2025, while clearly increasing its presence in the main tech-related international standardisation bodies.To add to this flurry of regulatory activity, a Global Digital Compact will be agreed at the Summit of the Future in September 2024, organised by the United Nations. This agreement will create a framework of multi-actor and multisectoral cooperation among governments, private enterprise and civil society, which should lay down a set of common rules to guide digital development in the future. The application of human rights online, the regulation of AI and digital inclusion will be some of the main topics under discussion.This need to regulate artificial intelligence will also be heightened in the coming months by a growing democratisation of AI tools, which will bring greater integration into different professional sectors. The focus on a responsible AI will be stepped up locally (more cities deploying AI strategies or regulatory frameworks), nationally and transnationally. As AI takes on a more important role in decision-making throughout society safety, trustworthiness, equity and responsibility are crucial. The latest annual McKinsey report on the use of generative AI tools says that a third of companies surveyed had begun to use these types of programs. The tech and communications sector (40%), as well as financial services (38%) and the legal profession (36%), are the frontrunners in their use and application. Yet the same survey also states that precisely the industries relying most heavily on the knowledge of their employees are those that will see a more disruptive impact of these technologies. Whether that impact is positive or negative is still unclear. Unlike other revolutions that had an effect on the labour market, it is white-collar workers who are likely to feel most vulnerable in the face of generative AI. A European Central Bank study, meanwhile, says that AI has not supplanted workers, but it has lowered their wages slightly, especially in jobs considered low and medium-skilled, which are more exposed to automatisation, and particularly among women.In the midst of this regulatory acceleration of the digital revolution, 2024 will also be the year when the European Union deploys, to it full potential, the new legislation on digital services and markets to place limits and obligations on the monopolistic power of the major platforms and their responsibility in the algorithmic spread of disinformation and harmful content. As of January 1st, it will be compulsory for Big Tech to abide by these regulations, with potential fines for breaches of as much as 6% of global turnover, according to the DSA (Digital Services Act) and between 10% and 20% of global turnover, according to the DMA (Digital Markets Act). The flow of international data will also increase in 2024, particularly transfers between the EU and the United States, by virtue of the new Data Privacy Framework approved in July 2023. We will also see fresh scrutiny from NGOs and digital rights groups to ascertain the legality of these transfers and whether they respect individual privacy.5. Economic fallout and debt sustainabilityThe economic consequences of the succession of crises of recent years will be more visible in 2024, especially the impact of the interest rate hikes to counter the biggest spike in inflation in 40 years following the energy crisis of 2022. Meanwhile, tougher financing conditions will limit fiscal policy, following the rapid rise in borrowing to tackle COVID-19 and the impact of the war in Ukraine.In a climate like this, growth will be slow. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not expect inflation to return to the target of most central banks until 2025, which augurs high interest rates for a long time yet, especially if there is a strain on oil prices again against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. The IMF's growth forecast for 2024 is 2.9%, much the same as the estimate for 2023 and below pre-pandemic growth rates.Economies, however, will cool unevenly. The United States appears to have dodged recession thanks to the strength of its labour market and of fiscal incentives, which means it is likely to have a softer landing. Industrial relocation policies, like the Inflation Reduction Act, record corporate profits after Covid and the extraordinary loss of purchasing power caused by inflation are some of the ingredients to explain the resurgence of the US labour movement, without precedent since the 1970s. Its success may spread to other sectors and economies with strained labour markets. Thus, a fall in inflation and an increase in salaries in 2024 could provide some economic relief.
In the European Union, there will be greater scrutiny of public accounts, especially those of countries with least financial wiggle room like Italy, following a sharp increase in borrowing to tackle the pandemic and the impact of the war in Ukraine, owing to financing conditions and the entry into force of the reform of the EU's fiscal rules. "Fiscal discipline" will also loom large in the negotiation of the EU's new budget framework (MFF), where its greatest wishes (support for Ukraine, backing for industrial policy, the green transition and an increase in appropriations for defence, migration or the Global Gateway) will come face to face with reality (lack of resources or agreement to increase them). The adoption of the European Economic Security Strategy and the outcome of the antidumping investigation into Chinese subsidies on electric vehicles will go a long way to determining whether, on the economic front, the EU opts to align with the United States in its strategic competition with China or tries to be a champion of a reformed globalisation.It will also be necessary to keep a close eye on the development of China, which is facing its lowest economic growth in 35 years, not counting the Covid years, weighed down by its imbalances, particularly as far as an excessive accumulation of debt and dependence on the property sector are concerned. The change in the rules of globalisation prompted by US strategic competition will also hamper its exports and capacity to attract capital in a climate in which the Chinese leadership prioritises economic security over growth. With unfavourable demographics, the country has yet to establish domestic consumption as a motor for growth.Emerging economies will feel the force of China's slump, especially those with greater trade and financial dependence. The success of the Belt and Road Initiative in terms of investment volume has been overshadowed by repayment difficulties in up to 60% of the loans, which along with criticism has led Xi Jinping to announce a new phase of investments with smaller projects. In 2024, China's new role as a lender of last resort and its participation in the debt restructuring processes of countries in distress will have growing importance in how it is perceived and in its geoeconomic influence over the Global South.
A large number of emerging countries are in a delicate fiscal situation. In a climate of rapid tightening of financial conditions and a strong dollar, that also exacerbates their external vulnerability. While some countries such as Mexico, Vietnam or Morocco are capitalising on the reconfiguration of trade and value chains (nearshoring), most emerging economies are likely to be adversely affected by a scenario of greater economic fragmentation. According to the WTO, trade in goods between hypothetical geopolitical blocs – based on voting patterns in the United Nations – has grown between 4% and 6% slower than trade within these blocs since the invasion of Ukraine.In this climate of scant monetary and fiscal space, the buffer for cushioning another crisis is extremely thin, which could exacerbate market volatility and nervousness in the face of episodes of uncertainty. The main focus of attention may shift from Ukraine to the Middle East, since shocks from oil are felt more broadly across the economy than those from natural gas. This could directly affect the EU and Spain, which are particularly dependent because they import over 90% of the oil they consume. In addition, strategic oil reserves in the United States have not been so low since 1983 and the few countries with capacity to increase crude production (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Russia) may not be inclined to do so without significant political concessions.6. South(s) and North(s)In our outlook for 2023 we announced the consolidation of the Global South as a space of confrontation and leadership and pointed to the strategic presence of India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Brazil. In 2024, this reconfiguration will go a step further. The contradictions and fragmentations of this dichotomous North-South approach will become more apparent than ever. The Global South has established itself as a key actor in the pushback against the West on anti-imperialist grounds or over double standards. The most symbolic image of this moment of geopolitical expansion will come in October 2024, when the BRICS bloc meets in Russia to formalise its expansion. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are welcoming Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran into the fold. Together they account for 46% of the world's population, 29% of global GDP and include two of the three biggest oil producers in the world. Thus, the BRICS will have an even more powerful voice, although, inevitably, it may also mean more internal contradictions and conflicting agendas. The election of Javier Milei as the president of Argentina, who has confirmed his decision not to join the BRICS, also feeds into the idea of this clash of agendas and interests in the Global South. Saudi Arabia and Iran vie for strategic influence in the Persian Gulf. India and China have their own border disputes in the Himalayas. The Global South will continue to gain clout, but it will also be more heterogeneous. Other than a shared postcolonial rhetoric, its action is extremely diverse.The Global South is multiregional and multidimensional and comprises different political regimes. But it is also a geographical space where global trade flows are consolidating as a result of reglobalisation. The latest WTO annual report confirms that, while advanced economies are still key players in world trade, they are no longer dominant. However, , if in 2023 we spoke of the geopolitical acceleration of the "others", with India as the symbol of this potential leadership of the Global South, in 2024 it will be Latin America that tries to take a central role. Brazil will host the G20, while Peru will be the venue for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.
And as we move beyond dichotomies, a deep internal crack may also appear in the Global North should the return of Donald Trump to the White House materialise. Transatlantic distance dominates a new framework of relations that is more transactional than a conventional alliance. Washington and Brussels' differences will worsen in 2024 when the United States asks the European Union to increase its contributions to the government of Volodymyr Zelensky and internal divisions among the member states prevent it. The second half of 2024 will be particularly tense, when Hungary – the most reluctant EU country when it comes to military aid and Ukraine's possible accession – takes over the EU's rotating presidency. It will also be paradoxical if this rift in the Global North widens because of the Ukraine war. Precisely, in 2023, the Ukrainian conflict was the mortar that cemented transatlantic unity, and confronted the EU and the United States with the limits of their ability to influence in the face of a Global South that questioned the double standards of the West. In 2024, however, the war in Ukraine may increase the distance between Washington and Brussels.Despite this logic of confrontation, the geopolitical short-sightedness of binarism is increasingly misplaced. And yet, it is difficult to overcome. The fact that both the United States and the European Union conceive their relations with Latin America solely as a space for resource exploitation and geopolitical dispute with China, is part of that short-sightedness. For the moment, the repeated failure of the negotiations over an EU-Mercosur agreement are dashing South America's hopes of being able to boost its trade presence in the European single market. Talks will resume in the first half of 2024, after Paraguay takes over the Mercosur presidency from Brazil.7. Backsliding on international commitmentsThe year 2023 left international cooperation in a shambles. Employing increasingly blunt language, António Guterres declared that the world is "woefully off-track" in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which reached the halfway point to their 2030 deadline in 2023. The coming year must prove whether the international community is still capable of and wishes to agree on coordinated responses to common global problems through organs of collective governance. It will not be easy. We face an acceleration of the ecological crisis, record migration and forced displacements and a clear regression of the gender equality agenda.For the first time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is projecting that global demand for oil, coal and natural gas will reach a high point this decade, based only on current policy settings, according to the World Energy Outlook 2023. In the short term, fossil fuel-producing countries are ignoring the climate warnings and plan to increase the extraction of coal, oil and gas. The choice of an oil state, the United Arab Emirates, as the host of a climate summit and the appointment of a fossil fuels executive as president was a bad omen at the very least.And yet, COP28 in Dubai has been the first to have managed to produce a text that explicitly recognizes the need to "transitioning away from" fossil fuels: oil, coal and gas, as the main culprits of the climate crisis. Although the final agreement has been celebrated as historic for referring to this need to initiate a transition to guarantee net zero emissions in 2050, the degree of ambition demonstrated is not sufficient to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Likewise, while the creation of a Loss and Damage Fund to compensate the countries most affected by climate change is also a positive step, the initial collection of $700 million falls far short of what is necessary. Every year developing countries face $400 billion in losses linked to climate action.In this context, not only do we run the risk of exacerbating climate impacts; we shall also see a rise – more acutely than ever – of social and political tensions between governments and societies over the exploitation of resources. In Europe there is growing discontent with the EU's climate transition policies and the rise of Eurosceptic and radical right forces in the European Parliament elections of June 2024 will raise this pressure still further. The flurry of regulatory activity on climate and industrial matters is increasing the politicisation of this issue and stoking social unrest in certain member states. Italy, Poland, the Netherlands and certain sectors in Germany, particularly the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), are trying to limit the EU's ambitions on climate action. The arrival of a new government in Sweden, backed by the radical right, has slammed the brakes on the climate commitments led by one of the countries that has most contributed to EU environment policies. A hypothetical return of Donald Trump to the White House would also shake again some of the limited domestic and international progress in this area.According to a poll carried out by Ipsos, while a large part of European households continues to put the environment before economic growth, this proportion is declining. If in 2019, 53% of households preferred to protect the environment, in 2022 the figure had fallen by 5 percentage points, despite the clear impact of climate phenomena. Yet the trend of "not in my back yard" is not limited to Europe. In late 2023, we saw the resistance of Panamanians against a mining contract extension. Some experts speak of a "clash of environmentalisms" to refer to the confrontation that arises between those who wish to protect their country's natural resources and do not want to see a deterioration in their ecosystems and the interests of governments seeking resources to fuel their energy transition. We might see the same in the European Union. In early 2024, the Critical Raw Minerals Act will enter into force. It aims to guarantee the supply of nickel, lithium, magnesium and other essential materials for the green transition and strategic industries that are vital for electric cars and renewable energies, military equipment and aerospace systems, as well as for computers and mobile phones. And with this in mind the EU means to revive the mining industry on the continent. It is a move that may trigger protests by ecologists in the EU in the coming months.UN member states are also expected to reach a global agreement to end plastic pollution in 2024. It will be an international legally binding treaty and is hailed as the most important multilateral environmental pact since the Paris Agreement, setting a plan of action to 2040.However, it is gender policies and migration policies that are most exposed to this radical wave that has transformed government agendas, particularly in the European Union and Latin America. While it is true that gender parity recovered to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, the rate of progress has slowed. At the present pace, it will take 131 years to reach full parity. Although the share of women hired for positions of leadership has increased steadily by approximately 1% a year globally over the last eight years, that trend was reversed in 2023, falling to 2021 levels.The emerging feminist foreign policies, which defined those countries with a clear commitment to promoting gender equality in international relations, have added four important losses in recent months: Sweden, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, and Argentina. The changes in government, together with the growing politicization and polarization of issues perceived as "feminist", have demonstrated the easy abandonment of these initiatives, dependent on the progressive orientations of the governments in power. Mexico, another of the countries that has adopted these policies, will face elections in June that will also mark the continuity or abandonment of its commitment to gender equality in foreign action. And, despite not having a feminist foreign policy, Trump's return to the White House could lead to the reinstatement of restrictive abortion policies and funding cuts against international NGOs that promote sexual and reproductive rights.Moreover, the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) reports a resurgence of anti-feminist trends in countries like Croatia and Italy and notes sexist and homophobic speech on the part of European leaders such as Viktor Orbán, Andrzej Duda or Giorgia Meloni, who have justified attacks on women's and LGBTQIA+ rights, undermining years of efforts to secure progress in breaking up gender stereotypes. Although the EU Gender Action Plan III is valid until 2025, a change in Brussels would also dilute the commitments of one of the actors most involved in this area.On a more positive note, it will be interesting to follow, in 2024, the progress of the Convention against Crimes against Humanity, which the UN is developing, as feminist and civil society movements around the world will take this opportunity to try to codify the gender apartheid as a crime against humanity – especially due to the Taliban regime's continued discrimination and oppression of Afghan women, and the situation of Iranian women.European migration policies have also suffered a major setback. The EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, which is set to move forward before the European elections in 2024, is a legitimisation of the EU's anti-immigration policies. The deal allows delays in registering asylum seekers, the introduction of second-rate border asylum procedures and extends detention time at the border. In short, it lowers standards and legalises what hitherto was unequivocally illegal.This looming agreement reflects the levels of polarisation and politicisation that set the tone of the European response to migration. And as we enter the run-up to the election campaign the migration debate will be even further to the fore in the coming months. It is, what's more, part of another, deeper process. The EU's externalisation policies have also fostered the stigmatisation of immigrants and refugees in the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa).8. Humanitarian collapseWar and violence drove forced displacement worldwide to a new high estimated at 114 million people by the end of September 2023, according to UNHCR. The main drivers of these forced displacements were the war in Ukraine and conflicts in Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar, as well as drought, floods and insecurity blighting Somalia and a prolonged humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.In the first six months of 2023 alone, 1.6 million new individual asylum applications were made, the highest figure ever recorded. This is not an exceptional situation. The reignition of forgotten conflicts has increased levels of volatility and violence. In October 2023, over 100,500 people, more than 80% of the estimated 120,000 inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh, fled to Armenia after Azerbaijan took control of the enclave. There were also thousands of displaced persons in northern Shan because of an escalation in fighting between the Myanmar armed forces and various armed groups. At the end of October 2023, nearly 2 million people were internally displaced in Myanmar, living in precarious conditions and in need of vital assistance. And the images of over 1 million Palestinians fleeing their homes because of the Israeli military offensive, after Hamas attack from October 7, illustrate the humanitarian crisis afflicting Gaza.This increase in the number of displaced persons and refugees, however, has not been accompanied by a boost in international aid. Close to 1 million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh must cope with declining international commitment. The United Nations reduced its food assistance and humanitarian aid to this group by one third in 2023. A lack of international funding considerably reduced assistance levels in 2023 and the World Food Programme was obliged to cut the size and scope of its food, monetary and nutritional assistance by between 30% and 50%. Some 2.3 billion people, nearly 30% of the global population, currently face a situation of moderate or severe food insecurity. Further rises in food prices in 2024 and the impact of adverse weather conditions on agricultural production may make the situation even worse still. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) anticipates that a total of 105 to 110 million people will require food assistance at least until early 2024, with an increase in need in the regions of southern Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean, and a net decrease in eastern Africa.Experts are pointing to the risk of a new rice crisis in 2024, as a result of India's export restrictions to try to cushion the effects of a drop in domestic production. The shock wave from the ban has also driven up the price of rice in Thailand and Vietnam, the second and third biggest exporters after India, which have seen prices rise by 14% and 22%, respectively. Added to that are the effects of the climate phenomenon known as El Niño, associated with heat and drought across the Pacific Ocean, which could harm production in 2024. Experts are currently warning that if India maintains the current restrictions, the world is headed for a repeat of the rice crisis of 2008.El Niño, which is set to continue to mid-2024, is usually associated with increased rainfall in certain areas of southern South America and the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. On the other hand, El Niño can also cause severe drought in Australia, Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia.The last episode of the phenomenon, in 2016, was the warmest year on record, with global heat records that have yet to be surpassed.Donor governments and humanitarian agencies must prepare for major assistance needs in multiple regions. The year 2023 has left us some indication of it: extreme drought in the Amazon and maritime traffic restrictions in the Panama Canal; forest fires in Bolivia and power cuts in Ecuador owing to low electricity production in over 80% of hydroelectric plants; the worst floods on record in northwest Argentina, which also caused landslides affecting over 6,000 people; and a devastating category 5 hurricane in Mexico that surprised the authorities and scientists, who failed to foresee the intensity of the phenomenon. 9. Securitisation vs. rightsThe conflict between security and fundamental rights has been a constant feature of 2023 and the electoral uncertainty of the coming months will only compound the urge to pursue heavy-handed policies and control. The public debate throughout Latin America, without exception, has been dominated by security, directly impacting other crises such as migration, which has affected the entire continent for a decade and in 2024 is expected to be even more intense. "Bukelism" has a growing number of fans. The new Argentine president, Javier Milei, has said he is an admirer of the hard-line polices of the Salvadoran president, Nayib Bukele. The election campaign in Ecuador was also coloured by the debate on security.The continent is fighting a new crime wave that has spilled into traditionally more stable countries that are now part of lucrative drug-trafficking routes, as is the case of Paraguay and Argentina. People trafficking, particularly the criminal exploitation of the Venezuelan migration crisis, has also grown throughout Latin America. Against this backdrop, the United Nations and Interpol have launched a joint initiative to combat human trafficking. It remains to be seen what impact the Venezuelan elections might have on this migration crisis, which has already led to over 7 million people leaving their homes since 2014.
Moreover, increasing impunity has also brought a mounting risk of authoritarian inclinations on the part of governments in Latin America, with the militarisation of public security and an undermining of democracy across the continent. In the European Union too. For some time, the sense of vulnerability has been a political boon for certain forces in the EU. With the outbreak of war in Gaza, some European countries ramped up security for fear of terrorist attacks, going to the extreme of banning demonstrations in support of the Palestinian people, as in France. In this climate, the securitisation of social movements is also emerging as a strategy that will continue to gain prominence in 2024. More and more, democratic governments are stepping up the pressure on protest movements: fines, curbs on free speech or judicial persecution are shrinking the space for civil dissent. On this point, the EU has reached an agreement to legislate against strategic lawsuits that seek to discourage public participation or silence independent media (known as SLAPPs) which is set to be ratified before the end of the current legislative term.Finally, the debate on security and its impact on individual rights will also mark the months leading up to the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. Civil rights groups have decried the French government's plans to use AI surveillance cameras to pick up real-time activity on the streets of the capital during the games. Technology is a crucial component of the transformation that security and conflict are undergoing. Drones have become a vital weapon for the resistance in Ukraine, and in the arsenal of Hamas in its October 7th attack on Israel. A United States in the midst of budget cuts is, however, poised to inject extra cash into the Pentagon in 2024 for the development of "electronic warfare" programmes.10. The decoupling of interests and valuesThere is a common thread in many of the previous points that connects an increasingly diverse and (dis)organised world through changing interests and alliances. In its 2023 Strategic Foresight Report, the European Commission acknowledges that the "battle of narratives" it used for so long as an argument in the geopolitical confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism is becoming obsolete. It goes further than the realisation that the West has lost the battle for the narrative in the Ukraine war and that its double standards in the face of global conflicts diminishes the EU's clout. Sudan is the clearest example of how the West can commit to wars it considers existential for the survival of its own values, such as the Ukraine one, while it ignores the genocide being carried out, with house-to-house murders, in the refugee camps of Darfur.The world has turned into a "battle of offers", shaping both public opinion and government action. There is a growing diversity of options and alliances. Thus far, hegemonic narratives are either challenged or no longer serve to make sense of the world. In this "unbalanced multipolarity", with medium-sized powers setting regional agendas, the major traditional powers are compelled to seek their own space. Global competition for resources to fuel the green and digital transitions accentuates this variable geometry of agreements and alliances still further. And the results of the series of elections in 2024 may ultimately reinforce this transformation. The United States' isolationist inclinations are real. Vladimir Putin will confirm his resilience at the polls, after dodging the effects of the international sanctions and building an economic apparatus to withstand a long war in Ukraine. In India, Narendra Modi's popularity remains intact and drives the dominance of his party. The election question sets the stage for a 2024 that begins wide open. The crisis of the liberal order, aggravated by the international reaction to the latest conflicts, and the erosion of multilateralism – with an explicit challenge to the United Nations – foster yet further this sensation of a dispersion of global power towards an assortment of dynamic medium-sized powers capable of helping to shape the international environment in the coming decades.A pivotal year begins to evaluate the resistance capacity of democratic systems long subdued to a profound erosion. We will be attentive to the outcome of the ballots and to the increasing unabashed actions of bullets, pressing the limits of impunity.
CIDOB calendar 2024: 75 dates to mark on the agenda January 1 – Changeover in the United Nations Security Council. Algeria, Guyana, the Republic of South Korea, Sierra Leone and Slovenia start their terms as non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, replacing Albania, Brazil, Gabon, Ghana and the United Arab Emirates, whose terms end. January 1 – Dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh. The self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh will cease to exist at the start of the year, after more than three decades of control over the territory. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive to reintegrate this predominantly ethnic Armenian-populated enclave. The assault led the self-declared republic to announce its dissolution. January 1 – BRICS expansion. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will join Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa as full members of BRICS. Argentina's new president, Javier Milei, has finally ruled out his country's incorporation. January 1 – Belgian presidency of the Council of the European Union. Belgium takes over the rotating presidency of the Council from Spain, marking the end of this institutional cycle. The Belgian semester will hold until June 30. January 7 – Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh. The vote will take place against a backdrop of deep political division in the country. This division led to mass demonstrations by the opposition at the end of 2023, calling for an interim government to oversee the elections. The current prime minister, Sheikh Hasina Wazed, is looking to for another term after 15 years in power, while her main rival and leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Khaleda Zia, is currently under house arrest on charges of corruption. January 13 – General elections in Taiwan. For the first time since Taiwan became a democracy, three candidates are competing for the presidency after the opposition failed to form a common front: the current vice president Lai Ching-te, from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party; Hou You-yi from the Kuomintang, and Ko Wen-je, a former mayor of Taipei and leader of the Taiwan People's Party. The outcome of these elections will mark the course of Taiwan's policy towards China, with an eye on the United States, at a time of growing tension between Taipei and Beijing. January 14 – Inauguration of Bernardo Arévalo as president of Guatemala. To widespread surprise, the Seed Movement candidate won the 2023 elections. Since the vote was held, political and social tension in the country has been rising due to efforts by the Guatemalan public prosecutor's office to overturn the election results and prevent Arévalo from taking office. January 15-19 – World Economic Forum. An annual event that gathers major political leaders, senior executives from the world's leading companies, heads of international organisations and NGOs, and prominent cultural and social figures. This year's meeting will mainly focus on examining the opportunities provided by the development of emerging technologies and their impact on decision-making and international cooperation. January 15-20 – 19th Summit of the Non-Aligned Movement. Uganda will be the venue for the next summit of the 120 countries that make up this grouping of states. The theme for this edition is "Deepening cooperation for shared global affluence" and it is scheduled to tackle multiple global challenges of today with a view to fostering cooperation among the member states. January 21-23 – Third South Summit of G-77 + China. Uganda will host this forum looking to promote South-South cooperation, under the theme "Leaving no one behind". The 134 member states from Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean will focus on the areas of trade, investment, sustainable development, climate change and poverty eradication. February 4 – Presidential elections in El Salvador. Nayib Bukele, who heads the New Ideas party and currently holds the presidency of El Salvador, is shaping up as the clear favourite for re-election. The country has been in a state of emergency since March 2022, in response to the security challenges affecting the nation. February 8 – Presidential elections in Pakistan. Since Imran Khan's removal as prime minister in April 2022, Pakistan has been mired in political instability, deep economic crisis and rising violence on the part of armed groups. The elections will be supervised by a caretaker government after the expiry of the Pakistani parliament's five-year term in August 2023. February 14 – Presidential and legislative elections in Indonesia. Three candidates are competing to succeed the current president, Joko Widodo, who after two terms cannot stand for re-election. The next leader will face the challenges of boosting growth in an economy reliant on domestic consumption, driving the development of the tech industry and navigating pressure from China and the United States to protect their national interests. February 16-18 – 60th Munich Security Conference. Held every year, it is the leading independent forum on international security policy and gathers high-level figures from over 70 countries. Strengthening the rules-based international order, the impact of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, resisting revisionist tendencies or the security implications of climate change will be some of the main issues on this year's agenda. February 17-18 – African Union Summit. Ethiopia, which holds the presidency of the African Union, will be organising the summit. This year, it will address some of the numerous issues in Africa, including instability in the Sahel, growing global food insecurity, natural disasters on the continent or democratic backsliding. In addition, the tensions between Morocco and Algeria will be centre stage as both countries are vying for the presidency. February 25 – Presidential elections in Senegal. Following multiple waves of protests, the current president, Macky Sall, announced he would not be standing for a third term. It is the first time in the country's democratic history that a sitting president will not be standing in the elections. The need to ensure jobs for the country's young population will be one of the key issues in the election campaign. February 26-29 – Mobile World Congress. Barcelona hosts the world's biggest mobile phone event, gathering the leading international tech and communications companies. This edition will be devoted to 5G technology, connectivity, the promotion of human-centred artificial intelligence or the digital transformation, among other themes. March 1 – Parliamentary elections in Iran. With an eye on the succession of the ageing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iranians will elect their representatives to the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Assembly of Experts, the latter body in charge of electing the new supreme leader in the coming years. The elections will be marked by the escalation of tension in the Middle East and the deep economic and social crisis that has increased popular disaffection with the regime. March 8 – International Women's Day. Now a key date on the political and social calendar of many countries. Mass demonstrations have gained momentum in recent years, particularly in Latin America, the United States and Europe. The common goal is the struggle for women's rights and gender equality throughout the world. March 10 – Parliamentary elections in Portugal. The country faces a snap election after the institutional crisis triggered by the resignation of the socialist prime minister, António Costa. The former leader was the target of a judicial investigation over alleged corruption that directly involved several members of his government team. March 15-17 – Presidential elections in Russia. While Vladimir Putin is expected to secure re-election, maintaining his grip on power until 2030, Russia will go to the polls against a backdrop of multiple domestic security challenges. The Russian withdrawal from the Ukrainian region of Kharkiv, the impact of the war in Ukraine, the failed Wagner uprising of June 2023 and the antisemitic disturbances in the North Caucus in October could force Putin to use the election calendar to embark on major a shakeup of the political and military leaderships. March 18 – 10th anniversary of Russia's annexation of Crimea. The annexation of Crimea by Russia, which had invaded the region some weeks earlier, was formalised via a referendum on Crimea's political status that went ahead without international recognition. The event took place following the fall of the then Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, a pro-Russian, in the wake of a series of protests with a clear pro-European bent. March 21-22 – Nuclear Energy Summit. The International Atomic Energy Agency and the Belgian government will gather over 30 heads of state and government from across the world, as well as energy industry and civil society representatives. The summit seeks to promote nuclear energy in the face of the challenges posed by reducing the use of fossil fuels, enhance energy security and boost sustainable economic development. March 31 – Presidential elections in Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian constitution, presidential elections must be held on the last Sunday in March of the fifth year of the presidential term of office. However, it is uncertain whether they will go ahead given they are illegal under martial law, in effect since the start of Russia's invasion of the country in 2022. A lack of funds and the Ukrainian people's opposition to holding elections in wartime are important factors. March 31 – Local elections in Turkey. The Republican People's Party (CHP), the main opposition, is hoping to maintain control of the key municipalities it won in 2019. They include the capital, Ankara, Istanbul and other major cities. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's re-election and the retention of the parliamentary majority in the elections of 2023 have prompted his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) to try to make up ground at municipal level. April 7 – 30th anniversary of the genocide in Rwanda. The deaths of the presidents of Burundi and Rwanda in a plane crash provided the trigger for a campaign of organised and systematic extermination of members of the Tutsi population at the hands of Hutu extremists that would last 100 days. On July 15th, 1994, the Rwandan Patriotic Front established a transitional government of national unity in Kigali that would put an end to the genocide. Between 500,000 and 1 million people are estimated to have been murdered. April-May – General elections in India. Despite growing illiberal tendencies, the "world's biggest democracy" goes to the polls in April and May. The current prime minister, Narendra Modi, is aiming for a third term against an opposition that is more united than ever under the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). May 2 – Local elections in the United Kingdom. Elections will take place for local councils and mayors in England, including London and the combined authority of Greater Manchester. The elections will be seen as an indicator of the level of support both for the Labour Party and for the Conservatives ahead of general elections scheduled for January 2025. May 5 – General elections in Panama. Panamanian society will elect new representatives for the presidency, National Assembly, mayoralty and other local representatives. The elections will take place against a backdrop of marked polarisation and rising social tension, exacerbated by issues relating to domestic security, political disputes and the management of natural resources. May 19 – Presidential and legislative elections in the Dominican Republic. The current president, Luis Abinader, leader of the Modern Revolutionary Party, is seeking re-election in a vote in which most opposition parties will unite under the Opposition Alliance Rescue RD. Territorial, migration and economic tensions with neighbouring Haiti will be central issues during the election campaign.June – Presidential elections in Mauritania. The current president, Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, will seek re-election after four years of business as usual following the departure in 2019 of the former president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, who today faces multiple corruption charges. The winner of the elections will have to deal with rising social tension, as well as geopolitical tensions across the region. June 2 – General and federal elections in Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum, the official shortlisted presidential candidate for the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), is the clear favourite against the main opposition candidate from the Broad Front for Mexico, formed by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), National Action Party (PAN) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Voters will not only elect the president and the government, but also senators and federal deputies, as well as thousands of state and/or municipal officials in 30 of the 32 federal entities. June 6-9 – Elections to the European Parliament. Voting will take place simultaneously in the 27 countries that form the European Union. Some of the major questions are how far populist and far-right parties will advance, how much clout the traditional social democrat and conservative families will wield and the possible alliances that might form for the subsequent selection of key European posts. June 9 – Federal elections in Belgium. Coinciding with the Belgian presidency of the European Union, the country will hold federal, European and regional elections on the same day. One of the most significant issues will be how well the far-right party Vlaams Belang fares. It is aiming for a considerable increase in its support to test the resistance of the cordon sanitaire that has excluded it from power until now. June 13-15 – 50th G-7 summit in Italy. Savelletri, a small town in the Italian region of Puglia, will be the venue for a new meeting of the G7. The summit will tackle the main geopolitical challenges on the global stage and their impact on the international economy, along with other crucial issues on Italy's agenda, such as immigration and relations with Africa. June 20 – World Refugee Day. The number of forcibly displaced people hit all-time highs in 2023. There are refugees and internally displaced persons due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and the numerous conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, as well as the impacts of climate change. During that week in June, the UNHCR will release its annual report on the global trends in forced displacement. First half of 2024 – Deployment of an international mission to Haiti. Kenya will lead the deployment of a security contingent with the participation of other countries. The goal is to tackle the gang violence in Haiti that is causing a major security and governance crisis. In October 2023, following a request from the secretary general and Haitian prime minister, the United Nations Security Council authorised a multinational security support mission for a period of one year. First half of 2024 – Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) Summit. India will host a new meeting of this strategic forum for the Indo-Pacific region formed by Australia, India, Japan and the United States to address common issues regarding trade, critical technologies, human rights and climate change. July – 24th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Kazakhstan holds the yearly rotating chairmanship of the main regional forum in Central Asia for security, economic and political affairs, made up of China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The priorities of the Kazakh chairmanship focus on matters of security and regional unity, as well as economic development and regional trade. Belarus is expected to join the organisation this year. July 1 – Hungary takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. Hungary will take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of the year, amid tension with the European Commission and Parliament over its failures to comply with EU law. July 8-18 – High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development. World leaders and representatives will meet in New York to follow up and review the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as present Voluntary National Reviews on the SDGs. The theme will be "Reinforcing the 2030 Agenda and eradicating poverty in times of multiple crises: the effective delivery of sustainable, resilient and innovative solutions". July 9-11 – NATO Summit. Washington will be the venue for the NATO summit, where the presentation of a security strategy for the southern flank is expected, in response to the mandate arising out of the Vilnius summit in 2023. In addition, 2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of NATO. July 26-August 11 – Summer Olympic Games in Paris. France will host the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad, the world's main sporting event, which is held every four years. It affords the hosts a good opportunity to kick-start an economy that has stagnated in recent years. August – Presidential and parliamentary elections in Rwanda. The incumbent president of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, who has been in the post since 2000, is running for re-election after three successive ballots in which he has polled over 90% of the votes. September – Parliamentary elections in Austria. The burning question is whether the conservatives (ÖVP) and the greens (Die Grünen) will be able to repeat their current government coalition or whether the results of the populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and the social democrats of the SPÖ will offer alternative majorities. September 22-23 – UN Summit of the Future. Based on the "Our Common Agenda" report presented by UN Secretary General António Guterres in 2021, on multilateralism and international cooperation, this high-level event aims to accelerate the fulfilment of existing international commitments and tackle emerging challenges and opportunities. The culmination of this effort will be the creation of a Pact for the Future negotiated and endorsed by the participating countries. September 24 – General Debate of the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly. A yearly event that brings together the world's leaders to assess the current state of their national policies and their world views. September 26-27 – 10th anniversary of the Ayotzinapa case. Mexico will mark the 10th anniversary of the Ayotzinapa (or Iguala) case, one of the biggest human rights scandals in the country's recent history. Still unsolved, the case involved the forced disappearance of 43 students from the Ayotzinapa Rural Teachers' College, Guerrero state. October – 16th BRICS Summit. Kazan in Russia will be the venue for the summit of the new BRICS, now expanded to 11 countries, adding impetus to Moscow's efforts to demonstrate that the country is not isolated despite the large-scale invasion of Ukraine. October 1 – 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. It is 75 years since Mao Zedong founded the People's Republic of China. The event marked the end of the civil war between the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang that had broken out immediately after the surrender of Japan and the dissolution of the Second United Front between the two political forces during the Second Sino-Japanese War. October 6 – Municipal elections in Brazil. The elections will be a good gauge of the level of support for the Workers' Party and the parties that back President Lula, as well as of the advance, or otherwise, of Bolsonaro-linked candidates. In the cities where a second round of voting is required, it will take place on October 27. October 9 – General and regional elections in Mozambique. President Filipe Nyusi will end his second and final presidential term. According to the country's constitution, he cannot stand again. His party, the Liberation Front of Mozambique (FRELIMO), which has been in power for decades, must find another candidate. The next government will face various challenges, including political tension, an increase in jihadi terrorism and marked social exclusion. October 24 – International Day of Climate Action. The goal is to mobilise and raise awareness of the effects of climate change among society and governments across the world. It is a good moment to analyse the different agendas to fight climate change and the progress being made in the most polluting countries. October 27 – General elections in Uruguay. The Broad Front (FA), a centre-left party with strong ties to the trade unions and other social organisations, will compete for victory against the centre-right Multicolour Coalition, which is currently in power and has faced several corruption cases in recent months. November – APEC Summit. Peru will host a new meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, which gathers 21 countries. The theme this year is "People. Business. Prosperity". November – COP29 Climate Change Conference. Azerbaijan will host the world's largest international summit dedicated to climate change in 2024. For the second consecutive year, it will be held in a country whose economy is dependent on fossil fuel production. November – 29th Ibero-American Summit. Ecuador will host the Ibero-American Summit of heads of state and government under the theme "Innovation, inclusion and sustainability". In parallel, the main cities of Latin America, Spain and Portugal will hold a "Meeting of Ibero-American Cities", the conclusions of which will be presented during the summit. November 4-8 – 12th World Urban Forum. Cairo will host the premier gathering on urban issues and human settlements organised by UN-Habitat. November 5 – Presidential elections in the United States. The incumbent president, Joe Biden, is seeking re-election and, with the former president, Donald Trump, still to be confirmed as the Republican presidential nominee, the campaign promises to be highly polarised. The election calendar will influence Washington's foreign policy decisions. November 5 – General elections in Georgia. The ruling coalition Georgian Dream is looking for yet another term. The war in Ukraine has split the country again between those who seek deeper integration with the West and hope to join the European Union in the future and those who advocate normalising relations with Russia. November 11 – 20th anniversary of the death of Yasser Arafat. The historic Palestinian leader and president of the Palestinian National Authority died 20 years ago in Paris. He played a crucial role in the Middle East peace process, which, along with Israeli leaders Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994. November 18-19 – G-20 summit in Brazil. Under the theme "Building a just world and sustainable planet", the main topics for discussion and debate at this meeting will include energy transition and development, reform of the global governance institutions, and the fight against inequality, hunger and poverty. December – Presidential elections in Algeria. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune is expected to run for re-election. The country faces several security challenges due to the instability in the Sahel and the rising tension with Morocco over the Western Sahara. It also plays a crucial role as a supplier of gas to Europe amid the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. December – General elections in South Sudan. The terms of the peace agreement of 2018, which put an end to an internal armed conflict lasting five years, established the forming of a government of national unity led by the current president, Salva Kiir, and his rival, the vice president, Riek Machar. Kiir has proposed holding free presidential elections in late 2024. December 7 – Presidential elections in Ghana. The elections are expected to be a two-horse race between Mahamudu Bawumia, the current vice president of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), and the former president, John Dramani Mahama, the candidate of the main opposition party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC). The country is facing its worst economic crisis of recent decades and major security challenges because of the geopolitical situation in the Sahel. Second half of 2024 – Presidential elections in Venezuela. The Chavistas and the opposition gathered under the umbrella of the Unitary Platform reached an agreement in Barbados on staging presidential elections that provides for the invitation of regional and international observers. The decision came as the United States announced the lifting of sanctions on Venezuelan gas and oil in October 2023. Pending – 53rd Pacific Islands Forum. Tonga is to host a new meeting of the main discussion forum spanning the region of Oceania, which brings together the interests of 18 states and territories on matters of climate change, the sustainable use of maritime resources, security and regional cooperation. It is a geographical space of growing interest to China and the United States, which have begun a diplomatic race to draw some of these countries and territories into their spheres of influence. Pending – 44th ASEAN Summit. Laos will host a new meeting of Southeast Asia's main regional forum, which brings together 10 countries. The theme this time is "Enhancing connectivity and resilience". Pending – AI Safety Summit. France will host the second meeting of this international summit whose goal is to foster work and initiatives to tackle the risks posed by artificial intelligence. The first event, held in London in 2023, resulted in the Bletchley Declaration, which advocated greater international cooperation to address the challenges and risks associated with artificial intelligence. Pending – 33rd Arab League Summit. Bahrein will host a fresh meeting of the main political organisation gathering the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, food and energy security issues, and the regional impacts of the war in Ukraine will be some of the main topics of discussion and debate. Pending – Presidential and parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka. The social tension in the country, mired in a deep economic crisis that has led to an International Monetary Fund rescue, has increased in recent months and is expected to intensify throughout the electoral process. Pending – General elections in Chad. Chad's transitional president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, who came to power in April 2021 via a military junta following the death of his father, Idriss Déby, promised the staging of free elections in late 2024. The country is facing a serious food and security crisis. Pending – 3rd Summit for Democracy. South Korea will be the host of this US-promoted summit, which since 2021 has gathered heads of government and leaders from civil society and the private sector. Its goal is to address the challenges and opportunities facing democracies in the 21st century on matters relating to democratic governance, safeguarding human rights and fighting corruption. Pending – General and regional elections in South Africa. The African National Congress (ANC), in power since the first free and general elections in 1994, is looking to stay there, although the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, could pull off a surprise. The country faces countless challenges, particularly in matters of security thanks to soaring crime rates, a major energy crisis and high unemployment. Pending – Presidential elections in Tunisia. They will be the first elections since the power grab by the Tunisian president, Kaïs Saied, in 2021 and the return to authoritarianism of the only country that appeared to have consolidated democracy following the Arab Spring of 2010-2011. Saied has already announced he will not allow the presence of international election observers. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24241/NotesInt.2023/299/enAll the publications express the opinions of their individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of CIDOB as an institution
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Text finalised on December 15th, 2023. This document is the result of collective reflection on the part of the CIDOB research team.Coordinated and edited by Carme Colomina, it includes contributions from Inés Arco, Anna Ayuso, Ana Ballesteros, Pol Bargués, Moussa Bourekba, Víctor Burguete, Anna Busquets, Javier Carbonell, Carmen Claudín, Francesc Fàbregues, Oriol Farrés, Agustí Fernández de Losada, Marta Galceran, Blanca Garcés, Seán Golden, Berta Güell, Julia Lipscomb, Bet Mañé, Ricardo Martínez, Esther Masclans, Óscar Mateos, Sergio Maydeu, Pol Morillas, Diego Muro, Francesco Pasetti, Héctor Sánchez, Reinhard Schweitzer, Antoni Segura, Cristina Serrano, Eduard Soler i Lecha, Alexandra Vidal and Pere Vilanova. 2024 will be a year of ballots and bullets. The elections held in more than 70 countries will serve as a stress test for the democratic system, and the impact of the multiple conflicts stoking global instability will shape a world in the throes of a global power shift and a clear regression in terms of humanitarianism and fundamental rights.The erosion of international norms is more acute than ever, and events become more unpredictable. 2024 begins wide open, marked by an increasingly diverse and (dis)organised world, with hanging interests and alliances in issues such as geopolitical competition, green and digital transitions, or international security. The economic consequences of the succession of crises of recent years will be more visible in 2024: economic growth will be weak, and China's downturn will reverberate in emerging economies, in a climate of rapid tightening of financial conditions and a strong dollar. 2024 will be a year of ballots and bullets, a stress test both for the democratic system and for the multiple conflicts stoking global instability. We still face a world in disarray, in upheaval and in dispute. This time, however, any analysis hangs on the huge question mark of the intense series of elections that will shape the coming year. With all-out hostilities in Ukraine, Palestine, Sudan or Yemen, we are seeing the most active conflicts of any time since the end of the Second World War. How the various armed conflicts and the outcome of the more than 70 elections marked on the calendar impact one another will set the geopolitical agenda for the coming months.There are elections that can turn the course of a war. The political fallout of the brutal Israeli offensive in Gaza or the stalemate on the Ukraine front also depend on the presidential race in the United States. The cracks in transatlantic unity and the increasingly direct accusations of double standards in the West's loyalties are not unrelated to what happens in the United States on November 5th, 2024. A return of Donald Trump to the White House would bring a drastic shift in the power relations and Washington's position in each of these conflicts, from weapons' supplies to the Ukrainian government or the support for Israel, to confrontation with Russia and China.Yet it is not only about the future of US democracy; over 4 billion people will go to the polls in more than 70 countries. The European Union (EU), India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Taiwan, Mexico, Venezuela or Senegal, for instance: major actors that wield demographic or geopolitical clout will mark a year of unprecedented electoral intensity and shape a world in the throes of a global power shift and a clear regression in terms of humanitarianism and fundamental rights. More elections do not mean more democracy, however. We live in an age of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and extremely sophisticated manipulation that threatens the integrity of the ballot box. Hybrid systems are gaining ground, and it remains to be seen whether the cycle of elections in 2024 will signal a moment of deep degradation for democracy or a moment of resistance.The sensation of disorder is not new, nor even its quickening pace. But every year the erosion of current international norms is more marked, and events become more unpredictable. The world is increasingly decentralised, diversified and multidimensional. This "multiplex order", as Amitav Acharya described it in 2017, is cementing, because everything is happening simultaneously. And yet this reshaping of the world is still wide open because several struggles are playing out at once. 1. More conflict, more impunity2023 has been one of the most conflictive years in the world since the end of World War II. In just twelve months, political violence has increased by 27%. It grew in intensity and frequency. The war in Gaza brought 2023 to a close, with over 17,000 dead accounted for so far, warnings from the United Nations of the risk of humanitarian collapse and genocide of the Palestinian population trapped in the Strip, and the standoff between the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the UN secretary general, António Guterres, to try to secure a ceasefire. In this ongoing crisis of the liberal order and amid discussion over the validity of international law, Israel has dealt a severe blow to the credibility of the United Nations. The Security Council has become an instrument of paralysis; a pincer in the service of the interests of old powers that have led Guterres to publicly acknowledge his frustration and sense of impotence. A politically weakened United Nations clings to its humanitarian action on the ground to try to make the difference between life and death. At least 130 UN humanitarian workers have lost their lives in Gaza since October 7th, the highest number of UN fatalities in a conflict in its history. 2023 has been a violent year. It is estimated that 1 in 6 people in the world have been exposed to conflict in the last twelve months. The sense of impunity and disregard for international law has escalated. Not only in Gaza. The entrenchment of the war in Ukraine; the expulsion of the ethnic Armenian population from Nagorno Karabakh; or the succession of coups in six African countries in the last 36 months are a clear illustration of this moment of "deregulation of the use of force", which has been crystallising over years of erosion of international norms. And if in late 2023 we saw the departure of the international troops from the G5 Sahel deployed to Burkina Faso and Niger, as had already occurred the previous year with the expulsion of the French forces from Mali, in 2024 it will be the United Nations mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) that will have to leave the country before February 29th. Human Rights Watch has called the withdrawal a "catastrophic abdication" because it increases the risk of large-scale atrocities and abuses in a scenario of civil war, ethnic cleansing and famine that has forced more than 7 million people to flee their homes, making Sudan the country with the highest number of internally displaced persons in the world.And yet the international struggle to curtail impunity will be equipped with new tools in 2024. As of January 1st, the Ljubljana - The Hague Convention on International Cooperation in the Investigation and Prosecution of the Crime of Genocide, Crimes against Humanity, War Crimes and other International Crimes could be signed (and ratified) by the United Nations member states that wish to join. It is the primary treaty for fighting impunity for international crimes and facilitates cooperation among states in the judicial investigation of these crimes, it ensures reparation for victims and streamlines extradition. At the same time, the UN is also drafting a Convention on crimes against humanity with the aim of creating a treaty that is binding in international law, especially in a climate marked by an increase in these crimes in countries like Myanmar, Ukraine, Sudan or Ethiopia. The United Nations General Assembly will assess the progress of the negotiations in autumn 2024. It will all coincide with the 30th anniversary of the Rwanda genocide.In March 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, for war crimes in Ukraine, to no effect so far. But should Putin decide to attend the next G20 summit in Brazil in November 2024, it would present a challenge to the host country since, unlike last year's host India, Brazil is a party to the Rome Statute of 1998, the international treaty that led to the creation of the ICC. While President Lula da Silva initially said Putin would not be arrested if he attends the summit, he later rowed back, stating that the decision would fall to the Brazilian justice system and not the government. Despite the pessimism these treaties might produce, in recent months we have seen how, following the Azerbaijani military offensive in Nagorno Karabakh, Armenia signed the ICC's Rome Statute in November, acquiring member status as of February 2024. In addition, in late 2023 South Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, the Comoros and Djibouti called for an International Criminal Court investigation into war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Palestine. In November 2023, the French judicial authorities issued an international arrest warrant for the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad – rehabilitated back into the Arab League the same year, more than a decade after being thrown out – and for several of his generals over the use of chemical weapons against their own people in 2013.2. Democracy under scrutinyMore than 4 billion people will go to the polls in 76 countries, which amounts to nearly 51% of the world's population. While most of the people in these countries will vote in full or flawed democracies, one in four voters will take part in ballots in hybrid and/or authoritarian regimes. In countries such as Russia, Tunisia, Algeria, Belarus, Rwanda or Iran the leaderships will use these elections to try to tighten their grip on power and gain legitimacy in the eyes of their citizens, while the other half of the electorate will exercise their right to vote in countries that have undergone democratic erosion or displayed illiberal tendencies in recent years, like the United States or India.The close of 2023 saw the inauguration of the "anarcho-capitalist" Javier Milei as Argentina's president, confirming the deep crisis of traditional parties and the rise of radical agendas, from Nayib Bukele's aggressively punitive approach in El Salvador ―who will seek re-election in 2024―, to Popular Renewal bursting onto the electoral scene in Peru, following the party's refoundation by the current mayor of Lima, Rafael López Aliaga. They are extreme responses to the various political, economic and security crisis situations. In Europe, there were mixed results at the polls, with victory for the Polish opposition, on one hand, and a win for the Islamophobic Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, on the other. The rapid succession of elections in 2024 will be decisive in determining whether the protest, fragmentation and rise of political extremism that have transformed democracies worldwide are reinforced or whether the system weathers the storm.The votes of women and young people will be key in this test of democracy. They were in Poland, punishing the reactionary polices of the Law and Justice Party (PiS). In Brazil or Austria, for example, men's support of far-right forces is 16 percentage points higher than that of women. In Mexico, the ballot in June 2024 will elect a woman as the country's president for the first time in its history. The two candidates are Claudia Sheinbaum, a former mayor of the capital, for the ruling leftist party Morena, and Xóchitl Gálvez, for the opposition coalition Broad Front for Mexico, which brings together the conservative National Action Party (PAN) and the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party), among others. In the United States, the mobilisation of young Latinos will be particularly important. More than 4.7 million young Hispanics have obtained the right to vote in the last few years and they will play a significant role in key states like Nevada or Arizona. While this cohort tends to have a progressive stance and leanings, their view of the dominant parties is complex: questions of identity, discrimination or racism colour their relationships with both the Democrats and the Republicans and they reject political identification, reinforcing the idea that polarisation in the United States is more apparent among politicians than among their voters. Despite that, the fear of unfair elections has increased dramatically (from 49% in 2021 to 61% in 2023). Although US voters still perceive economic inequality as the main threat (69%), probably the greatest challenge in this election race is the presence of Donald Trump, not only because his immediate future is in the hands of the courts but also because if he does become the Republican presidential nominee, it will mean that the party has decided to place its future in the hands of the man who tried to overturn the results of the election four years ago and who the Congress committee to investigate the storming of the Capitol on January 6th, 2020, accused of "insurrection". January will see the start of the state primaries and caucuses. But with the final nominees still to be decided, according to the polls the scenario of an electoral contest between two candidates approaching or in their eighties currently favours Trump. Meanwhile, the date of the former president's trial can get dangerously close to the Super Tuesday, scheduled for March 5, the day on which 13 states vote in the Republican primaries.An investigation by The Guardian with the University of Chicago found that 5.5% of Americans, or 14 million people, believe that the use of force is justified to restore Donald Trump to the presidency, while 8.9% of Americans, or 23 million people, believe that force is justified to prevent him from being president. It is not an isolated trend. The risk of political instability and violence related to electoral processes is on the rise, as the Kofi Annan Foundation confirms.The future of the European Union, which is facing the winter with two wars on its doorstep, will also be decided at the ballot box. Apart from the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held from June 6th to 9th, 2024, 12 member states are also going to the polls. The general elections in Belgium, Portugal or Austria will be a good gauge of the strength of the far right, which is shaping up as one of the winners in the elections to the European Parliament. If the vote in 2019 spelled the end of the grand coalition that had guaranteed social democrats and Christian democrats a majority in the chamber since the European Parliament's beginnings, the big question now is knowing just how far right the European Union will swing.The latest voting intention projections show significant results for the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, home of extreme-right parties like Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) and Alternative for Germany (AfD), which would win as many as 87 seats and surpass the other family on the radical right, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), led by the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, which would go from 66 MEPs at present to 83. Despite the loss of seats for the traditional forces, the European People's Party (EPP) will remain the EU's main political family. So, one of the questions in 2024 is whether the EPP, led by the Bavarian Manfred Weber, would be ready to seek a possible majority with the radical right.The new majorities will be crucial to determining the future of European climate commitments, continued aid to Ukraine and urgent institutional reforms to facilitate the accession of future members. The EU must deliver on the promise of enlargement, but it is increasingly ill-prepared to carry it through.Four candidate countries to join the EU will hold elections in 2024: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, North Macedonia, and Georgia, as well as the question mark hanging over the staging of elections in Ukraine. According to its constitution, Ukraine should hold elections in March 2024. But under martial law, imposed in the wake of Russia's invasion in 2022, with part of the electorate reluctant to vote in such exceptional circumstances and 8 million Ukrainian refugees outside the country, Volodymyr Zelensky already said in November that it was not "the right time" to go to the polls.The United Kingdom too, in the throes of a political and social crisis could hold early general elections, which are scheduled for January 2025. With the Conservatives facing a challenging scenario against the Labour Party headed by Keir Starmer, the current prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has the power to call the election at a time of his choosing at any point before then. Another issue is Libya. Since the United Nations plan to stage elections was postponed indefinitely in 2021, the inability to reach an agreement between the members of the two governments in the east and west of the country has put the possible date for elections back again, to 2024.There will be 16 elections in Africa, although only six of them will take place in countries considered to be democratic. Thirty years after the 1994 elections in South Africa, which marked the beginning of a democratic journey dominated since then by the African National Congress (ANC), the political landscape is beginning to change. The 2024 general elections may confirm the weakening of power and support for the ANC, while the main opposition parties seek alliances to present an alternative. In addition, the complicated economic situation, combined with other factors such as corruption, has led to the growing popularity of extremist parties.Also in India, the opposition presents itself more united than ever against Narendra Modi seeking to renew a third term in the spring. Boosted by nationalism, polarization, and disinformation, Modi will showcase the country's economic and geopolitical achievements. In 2023 India surpassed China as the most populous country in the world.Finally, it also remains to be seen what degree of participation the Venezuelan opposition might have in the presidential elections agreed with Nicolás Maduro for the second half of the year. For now, the internal panorama has become even more strained with the intensification of the territorial conflict with Guyana and the mobilization of the army.3. From information overload to social disconnection Societies are increasingly weary, overwhelmed by the saturation of content and exhausted by the speed of the changes they must assimilate. Political and electoral uncertainty and the multiple conflicts that will shape 2024 will only widen the distance between society, institutions and political parties. The number of people who say they "avoid" the news remains close to all-time highs and is particularly prominent in Greece (57%), Bulgaria (57%), Argentina (46%) or the United Kingdom (41%). The main reasons? The excessive repetition of certain news stories and the emotional impact they can have on the population's mental health. In particular, according to the Reuters Institute, this fatigue is prompted by issues such as the war in Ukraine (39%), national politics (38%) and news related to social justice (31%), with high levels of politicisation and polarisation. The echoes of the COVID-19 pandemic, images of war-related violence and the economic impact of such events on increasingly adverse living standards for the population have magnified this trend towards disconnection, aggravated by a sense of loneliness and polarisation. Yet this drop in news consumption has gone hand in hand with greater use of social networks: younger generations, for example, are increasingly likely to pay more attention to influencers than to journalists. At the same time, there is growing fragmentation on the social networks. The migration of users to Instagram or TikTok has also changed the way current affairs are consumed, with a prioritisation of leisure over news content. It is not just a voluntary rejection of information; this tendency to disconnect has also led to a reduction in the social participation and involvement in online debates that had characterised the Arab Springs, the MeToo movement or Black Lives Matter. Nearly half of open social networks users (47%) no longer participate in or react to the news. But, moreover, the disconnect from the news is also linked to the political disconnection and social shifts that have clearly altered electoral behaviour. Demographic changes related to technology use and an environment of constant volatility have also resulted in a drop in voter loyalty and that has contributed to the crisis of the traditional parties. The identity element of belonging to a party has changed among young people. Identification is built on stances on issues such as climate change, immigration, racism, women's or LGBTQIA+ rights or even the conflict between Israel and Palestine. Some 65% of American adults say they always or often feel exhausted when thinking about politics. According to the Pew Research Center, six out of ten Americans of voting age admit to having little or no confidence in the future of their country's political system. And this discontent extends to the three branches of government, the current political leaders and candidates for public office. When asked to sum up their feelings about politics in a word, 79% are negative or critical. The most frequently repeated words are "divisive", "corrupt", "chaos" or "polarised", and they complain that conflicts between Republicans and Democrats receive too much attention and there is too little attention paid "to the important issues facing the country". The paradox, however, is that this discontent has coincided with historically high levels of voter turnout over the last few years. The question is whether there will be a repeat of this in the presidential elections in November, especially when they reflect another element of generational disaffection: gerontocracy. The average age of global leaders is 62. In young people's view, the traditional political parties have failed to articulate a direct form of communication, increasing the sense of disconnection between society, politicians and institutions. In this context, a repeat of the Biden-Trump confrontation in 2024 would emphasize the extreme polarization between Republicans and Democrats in an electoral cycle considered risky. Abortion rights and security remain strong mobilization points for voters.Sometimes, however, the disconnection can be forced and in this case a news blackout becomes a weapon of repression and censorship or freedom of expression. Iran, India and Pakistan were the three countries with most new internet restrictions in the first half of 2023, and all three are holding elections in 2024. With the rise and consolidation of AI, disinformation will be an additional challenge in this "super election year". The rapid progress of AI, particularly generative AI, may cast an even longer shadow over trust in information and electoral processes. The refinement of deepfakes, quick and easy creation of images, text, audios files or propaganda by AI and a growing dependence on social media to check and research facts form a breeding ground for disinformation at time when there is still no effective control of these technologies. Perhaps that is why the Merriam-Webster dictionary's word of the year for 2023 is "authentic". With the prelude of "post-truth" in 2016, technology's capacity to manipulate facts has no precedent, from the authenticity of an image to the writing of an academic work. Hence more than half of social media users (56%) say they doubt their own capacity to identify the difference between what is real and fake in news on the internet.4. Artificial intelligence: explosion and regulation 2023 was the year that generative AI burst into our lives; the year that ChatGPT was presented to society, which in January, just two months after its launch, already had 100 million users. In August, it hit 180 million. Yet the revolution also brought a new awareness of the risks, acceleration and transformation involved in a technology that aspires to match, or even improve or surpass human intelligence. That is why 2024 will be a crucial year for AI regulation. The foundations have already been laid. It only remains to review the different initiatives under way. The most ambitious is that of the European Union, which is resolved to become the first region in the world to equip itself with a comprehensive law to regulate artificial intelligence and lead the coming leap forward. The EU has opted to categorise the risks (unacceptable, high, limited or minimal) posed by the use of AI systems and will require a "fundamental rights impact assessment" be carried out before a "high-risk" AI system can be put on the market. The agreement reached in December will be ratified in the first quarter of 2024 and give way to a period of two years before its full implementation in 2026.Almost at the eleventh hour too, on December 1st of 2023 the G7 agreed international guidelines for artificial intelligence developers and users, particularly for generative AI, mentioning the need to introduce measures to deal with disinformation. G7 leaders see it as one of the chief risks because of possible manipulation of public opinion on the eve of a year of global election overdrive.But the debate on governance goes hand in hand with a geopolitical race to lead technological innovation and, unlike the EU, in the case of the United States and China that also means development of its military application. Both countries are looking to bolster their leadership. The first international AI safety summit, called by the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, became a meeting point of major global powers – both public and private; techno-authoritarian or open – trying to regulate or influence the debates on regulation under way. A second in-person summit will take place in Seoul and a third one in Paris, both in 2024 . For now, the "Bletchley Declaration" is on the table, a document signed by 28 countries that gathers the pledge to tackle the main risks of artificial intelligence, an agreement to examine tech companies' AI models before they are launched and a deal to assemble a global panel of experts on artificial intelligence inspired by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel of Experts on Climate Change (IPCC) . In addition, at the US Embassy in London, 31 countries signed a parallel (non-binding) agreement to place limits on the military use of AI. China, for its part, continues to move towards its goal of reaching 70% self-sufficiency in critical technologies by 2025, while clearly increasing its presence in the main tech-related international standardisation bodies.To add to this flurry of regulatory activity, a Global Digital Compact will be agreed at the Summit of the Future in September 2024, organised by the United Nations. This agreement will create a framework of multi-actor and multisectoral cooperation among governments, private enterprise and civil society, which should lay down a set of common rules to guide digital development in the future. The application of human rights online, the regulation of AI and digital inclusion will be some of the main topics under discussion.This need to regulate artificial intelligence will also be heightened in the coming months by a growing democratisation of AI tools, which will bring greater integration into different professional sectors. The focus on a responsible AI will be stepped up locally (more cities deploying AI strategies or regulatory frameworks), nationally and transnationally. As AI takes on a more important role in decision-making throughout society safety, trustworthiness, equity and responsibility are crucial. The latest annual McKinsey report on the use of generative AI tools says that a third of companies surveyed had begun to use these types of programs. The tech and communications sector (40%), as well as financial services (38%) and the legal profession (36%), are the frontrunners in their use and application. Yet the same survey also states that precisely the industries relying most heavily on the knowledge of their employees are those that will see a more disruptive impact of these technologies. Whether that impact is positive or negative is still unclear. Unlike other revolutions that had an effect on the labour market, it is white-collar workers who are likely to feel most vulnerable in the face of generative AI. A European Central Bank study, meanwhile, says that AI has not supplanted workers, but it has lowered their wages slightly, especially in jobs considered low and medium-skilled, which are more exposed to automatisation, and particularly among women.In the midst of this regulatory acceleration of the digital revolution, 2024 will also be the year when the European Union deploys, to it full potential, the new legislation on digital services and markets to place limits and obligations on the monopolistic power of the major platforms and their responsibility in the algorithmic spread of disinformation and harmful content. As of January 1st, it will be compulsory for Big Tech to abide by these regulations, with potential fines for breaches of as much as 6% of global turnover, according to the DSA (Digital Services Act) and between 10% and 20% of global turnover, according to the DMA (Digital Markets Act). The flow of international data will also increase in 2024, particularly transfers between the EU and the United States, by virtue of the new Data Privacy Framework approved in July 2023. We will also see fresh scrutiny from NGOs and digital rights groups to ascertain the legality of these transfers and whether they respect individual privacy.5. Economic fallout and debt sustainabilityThe economic consequences of the succession of crises of recent years will be more visible in 2024, especially the impact of the interest rate hikes to counter the biggest spike in inflation in 40 years following the energy crisis of 2022. Meanwhile, tougher financing conditions will limit fiscal policy, following the rapid rise in borrowing to tackle COVID-19 and the impact of the war in Ukraine.In a climate like this, growth will be slow. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not expect inflation to return to the target of most central banks until 2025, which augurs high interest rates for a long time yet, especially if there is a strain on oil prices again against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. The IMF's growth forecast for 2024 is 2.9%, much the same as the estimate for 2023 and below pre-pandemic growth rates.Economies, however, will cool unevenly. The United States appears to have dodged recession thanks to the strength of its labour market and of fiscal incentives, which means it is likely to have a softer landing. Industrial relocation policies, like the Inflation Reduction Act, record corporate profits after Covid and the extraordinary loss of purchasing power caused by inflation are some of the ingredients to explain the resurgence of the US labour movement, without precedent since the 1970s. Its success may spread to other sectors and economies with strained labour markets. Thus, a fall in inflation and an increase in salaries in 2024 could provide some economic relief.In the European Union, there will be greater scrutiny of public accounts, especially those of countries with least financial wiggle room like Italy, following a sharp increase in borrowing to tackle the pandemic and the impact of the war in Ukraine, owing to financing conditions and the entry into force of the reform of the EU's fiscal rules. "Fiscal discipline" will also loom large in the negotiation of the EU's new budget framework (MFF), where its greatest wishes (support for Ukraine, backing for industrial policy, the green transition and an increase in appropriations for defence, migration or the Global Gateway) will come face to face with reality (lack of resources or agreement to increase them). The adoption of the European Economic Security Strategy and the outcome of the antidumping investigation into Chinese subsidies on electric vehicles will go a long way to determining whether, on the economic front, the EU opts to align with the United States in its strategic competition with China or tries to be a champion of a reformed globalisation.It will also be necessary to keep a close eye on the development of China, which is facing its lowest economic growth in 35 years, not counting the Covid years, weighed down by its imbalances, particularly as far as an excessive accumulation of debt and dependence on the property sector are concerned. The change in the rules of globalisation prompted by US strategic competition will also hamper its exports and capacity to attract capital in a climate in which the Chinese leadership prioritises economic security over growth. With unfavourable demographics, the country has yet to establish domestic consumption as a motor for growth.Emerging economies will feel the force of China's slump, especially those with greater trade and financial dependence. The success of the Belt and Road Initiative in terms of investment volume has been overshadowed by repayment difficulties in up to 60% of the loans, which along with criticism has led Xi Jinping to announce a new phase of investments with smaller projects. In 2024, China's new role as a lender of last resort and its participation in the debt restructuring processes of countries in distress will have growing importance in how it is perceived and in its geoeconomic influence over the Global South.A large number of emerging countries are in a delicate fiscal situation. In a climate of rapid tightening of financial conditions and a strong dollar, that also exacerbates their external vulnerability. While some countries such as Mexico, Vietnam or Morocco are capitalising on the reconfiguration of trade and value chains (nearshoring), most emerging economies are likely to be adversely affected by a scenario of greater economic fragmentation. According to the WTO, trade in goods between hypothetical geopolitical blocs – based on voting patterns in the United Nations – has grown between 4% and 6% slower than trade within these blocs since the invasion of Ukraine.In this climate of scant monetary and fiscal space, the buffer for cushioning another crisis is extremely thin, which could exacerbate market volatility and nervousness in the face of episodes of uncertainty. The main focus of attention may shift from Ukraine to the Middle East, since shocks from oil are felt more broadly across the economy than those from natural gas. This could directly affect the EU and Spain, which are particularly dependent because they import over 90% of the oil they consume. In addition, strategic oil reserves in the United States have not been so low since 1983 and the few countries with capacity to increase crude production (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Russia) may not be inclined to do so without significant political concessions.6. South(s) and North(s)In our outlook for 2023 we announced the consolidation of the Global South as a space of confrontation and leadership and pointed to the strategic presence of India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Brazil. In 2024, this reconfiguration will go a step further. The contradictions and fragmentations of this dichotomous North-South approach will become more apparent than ever. The Global South has established itself as a key actor in the pushback against the West on anti-imperialist grounds or over double standards. The most symbolic image of this moment of geopolitical expansion will come in October 2024, when the BRICS bloc meets in Russia to formalise its expansion. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are welcoming Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran into the fold. Together they account for 46% of the world's population, 29% of global GDP and include two of the three biggest oil producers in the world. Thus, the BRICS will have an even more powerful voice, although, inevitably, it may also mean more internal contradictions and conflicting agendas. The election of Javier Milei as the president of Argentina, who has confirmed his decision not to join the BRICS, also feeds into the idea of this clash of agendas and interests in the Global South. Saudi Arabia and Iran vie for strategic influence in the Persian Gulf. India and China have their own border disputes in the Himalayas. The Global South will continue to gain clout, but it will also be more heterogeneous. Other than a shared postcolonial rhetoric, its action is extremely diverse.The Global South is multiregional and multidimensional and comprises different political regimes. But it is also a geographical space where global trade flows are consolidating as a result of reglobalisation. The latest WTO annual report confirms that, while advanced economies are still key players in world trade, they are no longer dominant. However, , if in 2023 we spoke of the geopolitical acceleration of the "others", with India as the symbol of this potential leadership of the Global South, in 2024 it will be Latin America that tries to take a central role. Brazil will host the G20, while Peru will be the venue for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.And as we move beyond dichotomies, a deep internal crack may also appear in the Global North should the return of Donald Trump to the White House materialise. Transatlantic distance dominates a new framework of relations that is more transactional than a conventional alliance. Washington and Brussels' differences will worsen in 2024 when the United States asks the European Union to increase its contributions to the government of Volodymyr Zelensky and internal divisions among the member states prevent it. The second half of 2024 will be particularly tense, when Hungary – the most reluctant EU country when it comes to military aid and Ukraine's possible accession – takes over the EU's rotating presidency. It will also be paradoxical if this rift in the Global North widens because of the Ukraine war. Precisely, in 2023, the Ukrainian conflict was the mortar that cemented transatlantic unity, and confronted the EU and the United States with the limits of their ability to influence in the face of a Global South that questioned the double standards of the West. In 2024, however, the war in Ukraine may increase the distance between Washington and Brussels.Despite this logic of confrontation, the geopolitical short-sightedness of binarism is increasingly misplaced. And yet, it is difficult to overcome. The fact that both the United States and the European Union conceive their relations with Latin America solely as a space for resource exploitation and geopolitical dispute with China, is part of that short-sightedness. For the moment, the repeated failure of the negotiations over an EU-Mercosur agreement are dashing South America's hopes of being able to boost its trade presence in the European single market. Talks will resume in the first half of 2024, after Paraguay takes over the Mercosur presidency from Brazil.7. Backsliding on international commitmentsThe year 2023 left international cooperation in a shambles. Employing increasingly blunt language, António Guterres declared that the world is "woefully off-track" in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which reached the halfway point to their 2030 deadline in 2023. The coming year must prove whether the international community is still capable of and wishes to agree on coordinated responses to common global problems through organs of collective governance. It will not be easy. We face an acceleration of the ecological crisis, record migration and forced displacements and a clear regression of the gender equality agenda.For the first time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is projecting that global demand for oil, coal and natural gas will reach a high point this decade, based only on current policy settings, according to the World Energy Outlook 2023. In the short term, fossil fuel-producing countries are ignoring the climate warnings and plan to increase the extraction of coal, oil and gas. The choice of an oil state, the United Arab Emirates, as the host of a climate summit and the appointment of a fossil fuels executive as president was a bad omen at the very least.And yet, COP28 in Dubai has been the first to have managed to produce a text that explicitly recognizes the need to "leave behind" fossil fuels: oil, coal and gas, as the main culprits of the climate crisis. Although the final agreement has been celebrated as historic for referring to this need to initiate a transition to guarantee net zero emissions in 2050, the degree of ambition demonstrated is not sufficient to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Likewise, while the creation of a Loss and Damage Fund to compensate the countries most affected by climate change is also a positive step, the initial collection of $700 million falls far short of what is necessary. Every year developing countries face $400 billion in losses linked to climate action.In this context, not only do we run the risk of exacerbating climate impacts; we shall also see a rise – more acutely than ever – of social and political tensions between governments and societies over the exploitation of resources. In Europe there is growing discontent with the EU's climate transition policies and the rise of Eurosceptic and radical right forces in the European Parliament elections of June 2024 will raise this pressure still further. The flurry of regulatory activity on climate and industrial matters is increasing the politicisation of this issue and stoking social unrest in certain member states. Italy, Poland, the Netherlands and certain sectors in Germany, particularly the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), are trying to limit the EU's ambitions on climate action. The arrival of a new government in Sweden, backed by the radical right, has slammed the brakes on the climate commitments led by one of the countries that has most contributed to EU environment policies. A hypothetical return of Donald Trump to the White House would also shake again some of the limited domestic and international progress in this area.According to a poll carried out by Ipsos, while a large part of European households continues to put the environment before economic growth, this proportion is declining. If in 2019, 53% of households preferred to protect the environment, in 2022 the figure had fallen by 5 percentage points, despite the clear impact of climate phenomena. Yet the trend of "not in my back yard" is not limited to Europe. In late 2023, we saw the resistance of Panamanians against a mining contract extension. Some experts speak of a "clash of environmentalisms" to refer to the confrontation that arises between those who wish to protect their country's natural resources and do not want to see a deterioration in their ecosystems and the interests of governments seeking resources to fuel their energy transition. We might see the same in the European Union. In early 2024, the Critical Raw Minerals Act will enter into force. It aims to guarantee the supply of nickel, lithium, magnesium and other essential materials for the green transition and strategic industries that are vital for electric cars and renewable energies, military equipment and aerospace systems, as well as for computers and mobile phones. And with this in mind the EU means to revive the mining industry on the continent. It is a move that may trigger protests by ecologists in the EU in the coming months.UN member states are also expected to reach a global agreement to end plastic pollution in 2024. It will be an international legally binding treaty and is hailed as the most important multilateral environmental pact since the Paris Agreement, setting a plan of action to 2040.However, it is gender policies and migration policies that are most exposed to this radical wave that has transformed government agendas, particularly in the European Union and Latin America. While it is true that gender parity recovered to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, the rate of progress has slowed. At the present pace, it will take 131 years to reach full parity. Although the share of women hired for positions of leadership has increased steadily by approximately 1% a year globally over the last eight years, that trend was reversed in 2023, falling to 2021 levels.The emerging feminist foreign policies, which defined those countries with a clear commitment to promoting gender equality in international relations, have added four important losses in recent months: Sweden, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, and Argentina. The changes in government, together with the growing politicization and polarization of issues perceived as "feminist", have demonstrated the easy abandonment of these initiatives, dependent on the progressive orientations of the governments in power. Mexico, another of the countries that has adopted these policies, will face elections in June that will also mark the continuity or abandonment of its commitment to gender equality in foreign action. And, despite not having a feminist foreign policy, Trump's return to the White House could lead to the reinstatement of restrictive abortion policies and funding cuts against international NGOs that promote sexual and reproductive rights.Moreover, the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) reports a resurgence of anti-feminist trends in countries like Croatia and Italy and notes sexist and homophobic speech on the part of European leaders such as Viktor Orbán, Andrzej Duda or Giorgia Meloni, who have justified attacks on women's and LGBTQIA+ rights, undermining years of efforts to secure progress in breaking up gender stereotypes. Although the EU Gender Action Plan III is valid until 2025, a change in Brussels would also dilute the commitments of one of the actors most involved in this area.On a more positive note, it will be interesting to follow, in 2024, the progress of the Convention against Crimes against Humanity, which the UN is developing, as feminist and civil society movements around the world will take this opportunity to try to codify the gender apartheid as a crime against humanity – especially due to the Taliban regime's continued discrimination and oppression of Afghan women, and the situation of Iranian women.European migration policies have also suffered a major setback. The EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, which is set to move forward before the European elections in 2024, is a legitimisation of the EU's anti-immigration policies. The deal allows delays in registering asylum seekers, the introduction of second-rate border asylum procedures and extends detention time at the border. In short, it lowers standards and legalises what hitherto was unequivocally illegal.This looming agreement reflects the levels of polarisation and politicisation that set the tone of the European response to migration. And as we enter the run-up to the election campaign the migration debate will be even further to the fore in the coming months. It is, what's more, part of another, deeper process. The EU's externalisation policies have also fostered the stigmatisation of immigrants and refugees in the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa).8. Humanitarian collapseWar and violence drove forced displacement worldwide to a new high estimated at 114 million people by the end of September 2023, according to UNHCR. The main drivers of these forced displacements were the war in Ukraine and conflicts in Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar, as well as drought, floods and insecurity blighting Somalia and a prolonged humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.In the first six months of 2023 alone, 1.6 million new individual asylum applications were made, the highest figure ever recorded. This is not an exceptional situation. The reignition of forgotten conflicts has increased levels of volatility and violence. In October 2023, over 100,500 people, more than 80% of the estimated 120,000 inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh, fled to Armenia after Azerbaijan took control of the enclave. There were also thousands of displaced persons in northern Shan because of an escalation in fighting between the Myanmar armed forces and various armed groups. At the end of October 2023, nearly 2 million people were internally displaced in Myanmar, living in precarious conditions and in need of vital assistance. And the images of over 1 million Palestinians fleeing their homes because of the Israeli military offensive, after Hamas attack from October 7, illustrate the humanitarian crisis afflicting Gaza.This increase in the number of displaced persons and refugees, however, has not been accompanied by a boost in international aid. Close to 1 million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh must cope with declining international commitment. The United Nations reduced its food assistance and humanitarian aid to this group by one third in 2023. A lack of international funding considerably reduced assistance levels in 2023 and the World Food Programme was obliged to cut the size and scope of its food, monetary and nutritional assistance by between 30% and 50%. Some 2.3 billion people, nearly 30% of the global population, currently face a situation of moderate or severe food insecurity. Further rises in food prices in 2024 and the impact of adverse weather conditions on agricultural production may make the situation even worse still. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) anticipates that a total of 105 to 110 million people will require food assistance at least until early 2024, with an increase in need in the regions of southern Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean, and a net decrease in eastern Africa.Experts are pointing to the risk of a new rice crisis in 2024, as a result of India's export restrictions to try to cushion the effects of a drop in domestic production. The shock wave from the ban has also driven up the price of rice in Thailand and Vietnam, the second and third biggest exporters after India, which have seen prices rise by 14% and 22%, respectively. Added to that are the effects of the climate phenomenon known as El Niño, associated with heat and drought across the Pacific Ocean, which could harm production in 2024. Experts are currently warning that if India maintains the current restrictions, the world is headed for a repeat of the rice crisis of 2008.El Niño, which is set to continue to mid-2024, is usually associated with increased rainfall in certain areas of southern South America and the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. On the other hand, El Niño can also cause severe drought in Australia, Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia.The last episode of the phenomenon, in 2016, was the warmest year on record, with global heat records that have yet to be surpassed.Donor governments and humanitarian agencies must prepare for major assistance needs in multiple regions. The year 2023 has left us some indication of it: extreme drought in the Amazon and maritime traffic restrictions in the Panama Canal; forest fires in Bolivia and power cuts in Ecuador owing to low electricity production in over 80% of hydroelectric plants; the worst floods on record in northwest Argentina, which also caused landslides affecting over 6,000 people; and a devastating category 5 hurricane in Mexico that surprised the authorities and scientists, who failed to foresee the intensity of the phenomenon. 9. Securitisation vs. rightsThe conflict between security and fundamental rights has been a constant feature of 2023 and the electoral uncertainty of the coming months will only compound the urge to pursue heavy-handed policies and control. The public debate throughout Latin America, without exception, has been dominated by security, directly impacting other crises such as migration, which has affected the entire continent for a decade and in 2024 is expected to be even more intense. "Bukelism" has a growing number of fans. The new Argentine president, Javier Milei, has said he is an admirer of the hard-line polices of the Salvadoran president, Nayib Bukele. The election campaign in Ecuador was also coloured by the debate on security.The continent is fighting a new crime wave that has spilled into traditionally more stable countries that are now part of lucrative drug-trafficking routes, as is the case of Paraguay and Argentina. People trafficking, particularly the criminal exploitation of the Venezuelan migration crisis, has also grown throughout Latin America. Against this backdrop, the United Nations and Interpol have launched a joint initiative to combat human trafficking. It remains to be seen what impact the Venezuelan elections might have on this migration crisis, which has already led to over 7 million people leaving their homes since 2014.Moreover, increasing impunity has also brought a mounting risk of authoritarian inclinations on the part of governments in Latin America, with the militarisation of public security and an undermining of democracy across the continent. In the European Union too. For some time, the sense of vulnerability has been a political boon for certain forces in the EU. With the outbreak of war in Gaza, some European countries ramped up security for fear of terrorist attacks, going to the extreme of banning demonstrations in support of the Palestinian people, as in France. In this climate, the securitisation of social movements is also emerging as a strategy that will continue to gain prominence in 2024. More and more, democratic governments are stepping up the pressure on protest movements: fines, curbs on free speech or judicial persecution are shrinking the space for civil dissent. On this point, the EU has reached an agreement to legislate against strategic lawsuits that seek to discourage public participation or silence independent media (known as SLAPPs) which is set to be ratified before the end of the current legislative term.Finally, the debate on security and its impact on individual rights will also mark the months leading up to the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. Civil rights groups have decried the French government's plans to use AI surveillance cameras to pick up real-time activity on the streets of the capital during the games. Technology is a crucial component of the transformation that security and conflict are undergoing. Drones have become a vital weapon for the resistance in Ukraine, and in the arsenal of Hamas in its October 7th attack on Israel. A United States in the midst of budget cuts is, however, poised to inject extra cash into the Pentagon in 2024 for the development of "electronic warfare" programmes.10. The decoupling of interests and valuesThere is a common thread in many of the previous points that connects an increasingly diverse and (dis)organised world through changing interests and alliances. In its 2023 Strategic Foresight Report, the European Commission acknowledges that the "battle of narratives" it used for so long as an argument in the geopolitical confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism is becoming obsolete. It goes further than the realisation that the West has lost the battle for the narrative in the Ukraine war and that its double standards in the face of global conflicts diminishes the EU's clout. Sudan is the clearest example of how the West can commit to wars it considers existential for the survival of its own values, such as the Ukraine one, while it ignores the genocide being carried out, with house-to-house murders, in the refugee camps of Darfur.The world has turned into a "battle of offers", shaping both public opinion and government action. There is a growing diversity of options and alliances. Thus far, hegemonic narratives are either challenged or no longer serve to make sense of the world. In this "unbalanced multipolarity", with medium-sized powers setting regional agendas, the major traditional powers are compelled to seek their own space. Global competition for resources to fuel the green and digital transitions accentuates this variable geometry of agreements and alliances still further. And the results of the series of elections in 2024 may ultimately reinforce this transformation. The United States' isolationist inclinations are real. Vladimir Putin will confirm his resilience at the polls, after dodging the effects of the international sanctions and building an economic apparatus to withstand a long war in Ukraine. In India, Narendra Modi's popularity remains intact and drives the dominance of his party. The election question sets the stage for a 2024 that begins wide open. The crisis of the liberal order, aggravated by the international reaction to the latest conflicts, and the erosion of multilateralism – with an explicit challenge to the United Nations – foster yet further this sensation of a dispersion of global power towards an assortment of dynamic medium-sized powers capable of helping to shape the international environment in the coming decades.A pivotal year begins to evaluate the resistance capacity of democratic systems long subdued to a profound erosion. We will be attentive to the outcome of the ballots and to the increasing unabashed actions of bullets, pressing the limits of impunity.CIDOB calendar 2024: 75 dates to mark on the agenda January 1 – Changeover in the United Nations Security Council. Algeria, Guyana, the Republic of South Korea, Sierra Leone and Slovenia start their terms as non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, replacing Albania, Brazil, Gabon, Ghana and the United Arab Emirates, whose terms end. January 1 – Dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh. The self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh will cease to exist at the start of the year, after more than three decades of control over the territory. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive to reintegrate this predominantly ethnic Armenian-populated enclave. The assault led the self-declared republic to announce its dissolution. January 1 – BRICS expansion. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will join Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa as full members of BRICS. Argentina's new president, Javier Milei, has finally ruled out his country's incorporation. January 1 – Belgian presidency of the Council of the European Union. Belgium takes over the rotating presidency of the Council from Spain, marking the end of this institutional cycle. The Belgian semester will hold until June 30. January 7 – Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh. The vote will take place against a backdrop of deep political division in the country. This division led to mass demonstrations by the opposition at the end of 2023, calling for an interim government to oversee the elections. The current prime minister, Sheikh Hasina Wazed, is looking to for another term after 15 years in power, while her main rival and leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Khaleda Zia, is currently under house arrest on charges of corruption. January 13 – General elections in Taiwan. For the first time since Taiwan became a democracy, three candidates are competing for the presidency after the opposition failed to form a common front: the current vice president Lai Ching-te, from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party; Hou You-yi from the Kuomintang, and Ko Wen-je, a former mayor of Taipei and leader of the Taiwan People's Party. The outcome of these elections will mark the course of Taiwan's policy towards China, with an eye on the United States, at a time of growing tension between Taipei and Beijing. January 14 – Inauguration of Bernardo Arévalo as president of Guatemala. To widespread surprise, the Seed Movement candidate won the 2023 elections. Since the vote was held, political and social tension in the country has been rising due to efforts by the Guatemalan public prosecutor's office to overturn the election results and prevent Arévalo from taking office. January 15-19 – World Economic Forum. An annual event that gathers major political leaders, senior executives from the world's leading companies, heads of international organisations and NGOs, and prominent cultural and social figures. This year's meeting will mainly focus on examining the opportunities provided by the development of emerging technologies and their impact on decision-making and international cooperation. January 15-20 – 19th Summit of the Non-Aligned Movement. Uganda will be the venue for the next summit of the 120 countries that make up this grouping of states. The theme for this edition is "Deepening cooperation for shared global affluence" and it is scheduled to tackle multiple global challenges of today with a view to fostering cooperation among the member states. January 21-23 – Third South Summit of G-77 + China. Uganda will host this forum looking to promote South-South cooperation, under the theme "Leaving no one behind". The 134 member states from Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean will focus on the areas of trade, investment, sustainable development, climate change and poverty eradication. February 4 – Presidential elections in El Salvador. Nayib Bukele, who heads the New Ideas party and currently holds the presidency of El Salvador, is shaping up as the clear favourite for re-election. The country has been in a state of emergency since March 2022, in response to the security challenges affecting the nation. February 8 – Presidential elections in Pakistan. Since Imran Khan's removal as prime minister in April 2022, Pakistan has been mired in political instability, deep economic crisis and rising violence on the part of armed groups. The elections will be supervised by a caretaker government after the expiry of the Pakistani parliament's five-year term in August 2023. February 14 – Presidential and legislative elections in Indonesia. Three candidates are competing to succeed the current president, Joko Widodo, who after two terms cannot stand for re-election. The next leader will face the challenges of boosting growth in an economy reliant on domestic consumption, driving the development of the tech industry and navigating pressure from China and the United States to protect their national interests. February 16-18 – 60th Munich Security Conference. Held every year, it is the leading independent forum on international security policy and gathers high-level figures from over 70 countries. Strengthening the rules-based international order, the impact of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, resisting revisionist tendencies or the security implications of climate change will be some of the main issues on this year's agenda. February 17-18 – African Union Summit. Ethiopia, which holds the presidency of the African Union, will be organising the summit. This year, it will address some of the numerous issues in Africa, including instability in the Sahel, growing global food insecurity, natural disasters on the continent or democratic backsliding. In addition, the tensions between Morocco and Algeria will be centre stage as both countries are vying for the presidency. February 25 – Presidential elections in Senegal. Following multiple waves of protests, the current president, Macky Sall, announced he would not be standing for a third term. It is the first time in the country's democratic history that a sitting president will not be standing in the elections. The need to ensure jobs for the country's young population will be one of the key issues in the election campaign. February 26-29 – Mobile World Congress. Barcelona hosts the world's biggest mobile phone event, gathering the leading international tech and communications companies. This edition will be devoted to 5G technology, connectivity, the promotion of human-centred artificial intelligence or the digital transformation, among other themes. March 1 – Parliamentary elections in Iran. With an eye on the succession of the ageing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iranians will elect their representatives to the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Assembly of Experts, the latter body in charge of electing the new supreme leader in the coming years. The elections will be marked by the escalation of tension in the Middle East and the deep economic and social crisis that has increased popular disaffection with the regime. March 8 – International Women's Day. Now a key date on the political and social calendar of many countries. Mass demonstrations have gained momentum in recent years, particularly in Latin America, the United States and Europe. The common goal is the struggle for women's rights and gender equality throughout the world. March 10 – Parliamentary elections in Portugal. The country faces a snap election after the institutional crisis triggered by the resignation of the socialist prime minister, António Costa. The former leader was the target of a judicial investigation over alleged corruption that directly involved several members of his government team. March 15-17 – Presidential elections in Russia. While Vladimir Putin is expected to secure re-election, maintaining his grip on power until 2030, Russia will go to the polls against a backdrop of multiple domestic security challenges. The Russian withdrawal from the Ukrainian region of Kharkiv, the impact of the war in Ukraine, the failed Wagner uprising of June 2023 and the antisemitic disturbances in the North Caucus in October could force Putin to use the election calendar to embark on major a shakeup of the political and military leaderships. March 18 – 10th anniversary of Russia's annexation of Crimea. The annexation of Crimea by Russia, which had invaded the region some weeks earlier, was formalised via a referendum on Crimea's political status that went ahead without international recognition. The event took place following the fall of the then Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, a pro-Russian, in the wake of a series of protests with a clear pro-European bent. March 21-22 – Nuclear Energy Summit. The International Atomic Energy Agency and the Belgian government will gather over 30 heads of state and government from across the world, as well as energy industry and civil society representatives. The summit seeks to promote nuclear energy in the face of the challenges posed by reducing the use of fossil fuels, enhance energy security and boost sustainable economic development. March 31 – Presidential elections in Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian constitution, presidential elections must be held on the last Sunday in March of the fifth year of the presidential term of office. However, it is uncertain whether they will go ahead given they are illegal under martial law, in effect since the start of Russia's invasion of the country in 2022. A lack of funds and the Ukrainian people's opposition to holding elections in wartime are important factors. March 31 – Local elections in Turkey. The Republican People's Party (CHP), the main opposition, is hoping to maintain control of the key municipalities it won in 2019. They include the capital, Ankara, Istanbul and other major cities. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's re-election and the retention of the parliamentary majority in the elections of 2023 have prompted his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) to try to make up ground at municipal level. April 7 – 30th anniversary of the genocide in Rwanda. The deaths of the presidents of Burundi and Rwanda in a plane crash provided the trigger for a campaign of organised and systematic extermination of members of the Tutsi population at the hands of Hutu extremists that would last 100 days. On July 15th, 1994, the Rwandan Patriotic Front established a transitional government of national unity in Kigali that would put an end to the genocide. Between 500,000 and 1 million people are estimated to have been murdered. April-May – General elections in India. Despite growing illiberal tendencies, the "world's biggest democracy" goes to the polls in April and May. The current prime minister, Narendra Modi, is aiming for a third term against an opposition that is more united than ever under the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). May 2 – Local elections in the United Kingdom. Elections will take place for local councils and mayors in England, including London and the combined authority of Greater Manchester. The elections will be seen as an indicator of the level of support both for the Labour Party and for the Conservatives ahead of general elections scheduled for January 2025. May 5 – General elections in Panama. Panamanian society will elect new representatives for the presidency, National Assembly, mayoralty and other local representatives. The elections will take place against a backdrop of marked polarisation and rising social tension, exacerbated by issues relating to domestic security, political disputes and the management of natural resources. May 19 – Presidential and legislative elections in the Dominican Republic. The current president, Luis Abinader, leader of the Modern Revolutionary Party, is seeking re-election in a vote in which most opposition parties will unite under the Opposition Alliance Rescue RD. Territorial, migration and economic tensions with neighbouring Haiti will be central issues during the election campaign.June – Presidential elections in Mauritania. The current president, Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, will seek re-election after four years of business as usual following the departure in 2019 of the former president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, who today faces multiple corruption charges. The winner of the elections will have to deal with rising social tension, as well as geopolitical tensions across the region. June 2 – General and federal elections in Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum, the official shortlisted presidential candidate for the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), is the clear favourite against the main opposition candidate from the Broad Front for Mexico, formed by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), National Action Party (PAN) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Voters will not only elect the president and the government, but also senators and federal deputies, as well as thousands of state and/or municipal officials in 30 of the 32 federal entities. June 6-9 – Elections to the European Parliament. Voting will take place simultaneously in the 27 countries that form the European Union. Some of the major questions are how far populist and far-right parties will advance, how much clout the traditional social democrat and conservative families will wield and the possible alliances that might form for the subsequent selection of key European posts. June 9 – Federal elections in Belgium. Coinciding with the Belgian presidency of the European Union, the country will hold federal, European and regional elections on the same day. One of the most significant issues will be how well the far-right party Vlaams Belang fares. It is aiming for a considerable increase in its support to test the resistance of the cordon sanitaire that has excluded it from power until now. June 13-15 – 50th G-7 summit in Italy. Savelletri, a small town in the Italian region of Puglia, will be the venue for a new meeting of the G7. The summit will tackle the main geopolitical challenges on the global stage and their impact on the international economy, along with other crucial issues on Italy's agenda, such as immigration and relations with Africa. June 20 – World Refugee Day. The number of forcibly displaced people hit all-time highs in 2023. There are refugees and internally displaced persons due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and the numerous conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, as well as the impacts of climate change. During that week in June, the UNHCR will release its annual report on the global trends in forced displacement. First half of 2024 – Deployment of an international mission to Haiti. Kenya will lead the deployment of a security contingent with the participation of other countries. The goal is to tackle the gang violence in Haiti that is causing a major security and governance crisis. In October 2023, following a request from the secretary general and Haitian prime minister, the United Nations Security Council authorised a multinational security support mission for a period of one year. First half of 2024 – Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) Summit. India will host a new meeting of this strategic forum for the Indo-Pacific region formed by Australia, India, Japan and the United States to address common issues regarding trade, critical technologies, human rights and climate change. July – 24th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Kazakhstan holds the yearly rotating chairmanship of the main regional forum in Central Asia for security, economic and political affairs, made up of China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The priorities of the Kazakh chairmanship focus on matters of security and regional unity, as well as economic development and regional trade. Belarus is expected to join the organisation this year. July 1 – Hungary takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. Hungary will take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of the year, amid tension with the European Commission and Parliament over its failures to comply with EU law. July 8-18 – High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development. World leaders and representatives will meet in New York to follow up and review the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as present Voluntary National Reviews on the SDGs. The theme will be "Reinforcing the 2030 Agenda and eradicating poverty in times of multiple crises: the effective delivery of sustainable, resilient and innovative solutions". July 9-11 – NATO Summit. Washington will be the venue for the NATO summit, where the presentation of a security strategy for the southern flank is expected, in response to the mandate arising out of the Vilnius summit in 2023. In addition, 2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of NATO. July 26-August 11 – Summer Olympic Games in Paris. France will host the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad, the world's main sporting event, which is held every four years. It affords the hosts a good opportunity to kick-start an economy that has stagnated in recent years. August – Presidential and parliamentary elections in Rwanda. The incumbent president of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, who has been in the post since 2000, is running for re-election after three successive ballots in which he has polled over 90% of the votes. September – Parliamentary elections in Austria. The burning question is whether the conservatives (ÖVP) and the greens (Die Grünen) will be able to repeat their current government coalition or whether the results of the populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and the social democrats of the SPÖ will offer alternative majorities. September 22-23 – UN Summit of the Future. Based on the "Our Common Agenda" report presented by UN Secretary General António Guterres in 2021, on multilateralism and international cooperation, this high-level event aims to accelerate the fulfilment of existing international commitments and tackle emerging challenges and opportunities. The culmination of this effort will be the creation of a Pact for the Future negotiated and endorsed by the participating countries. September 24 – General Debate of the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly. A yearly event that brings together the world's leaders to assess the current state of their national policies and their world views. September 26-27 – 10th anniversary of the Ayotzinapa case. Mexico will mark the 10th anniversary of the Ayotzinapa (or Iguala) case, one of the biggest human rights scandals in the country's recent history. Still unsolved, the case involved the forced disappearance of 43 students from the Ayotzinapa Rural Teachers' College, Guerrero state. October – 16th BRICS Summit. Kazan in Russia will be the venue for the summit of the new BRICS, now expanded to 11 countries, adding impetus to Moscow's efforts to demonstrate that the country is not isolated despite the large-scale invasion of Ukraine. October 1 – 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. It is 75 years since Mao Zedong founded the People's Republic of China. The event marked the end of the civil war between the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang that had broken out immediately after the surrender of Japan and the dissolution of the Second United Front between the two political forces during the Second Sino-Japanese War. October 6 – Municipal elections in Brazil. The elections will be a good gauge of the level of support for the Workers' Party and the parties that back President Lula, as well as of the advance, or otherwise, of Bolsonaro-linked candidates. In the cities where a second round of voting is required, it will take place on October 27. October 9 – General and regional elections in Mozambique. President Filipe Nyusi will end his second and final presidential term. According to the country's constitution, he cannot stand again. His party, the Liberation Front of Mozambique (FRELIMO), which has been in power for decades, must find another candidate. The next government will face various challenges, including political tension, an increase in jihadi terrorism and marked social exclusion. October 24 – International Day of Climate Action. The goal is to mobilise and raise awareness of the effects of climate change among society and governments across the world. It is a good moment to analyse the different agendas to fight climate change and the progress being made in the most polluting countries. October 27 – General elections in Uruguay. The Broad Front (FA), a centre-left party with strong ties to the trade unions and other social organisations, will compete for victory against the centre-right Multicolour Coalition, which is currently in power and has faced several corruption cases in recent months. November – APEC Summit. Peru will host a new meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, which gathers 21 countries. The theme this year is "People. Business. Prosperity". November – COP29 Climate Change Conference. Azerbaijan will host the world's largest international summit dedicated to climate change in 2024. For the second consecutive year, it will be held in a country whose economy is dependent on fossil fuel production. November – 29th Ibero-American Summit. Ecuador will host the Ibero-American Summit of heads of state and government under the theme "Innovation, inclusion and sustainability". In parallel, the main cities of Latin America, Spain and Portugal will hold a "Meeting of Ibero-American Cities", the conclusions of which will be presented during the summit. November 4-8 – 12th World Urban Forum. Cairo will host the premier gathering on urban issues and human settlements organised by UN-Habitat. November 5 – Presidential elections in the United States. The incumbent president, Joe Biden, is seeking re-election and, with the former president, Donald Trump, still to be confirmed as the Republican presidential nominee, the campaign promises to be highly polarised. The election calendar will influence Washington's foreign policy decisions. November 5 – General elections in Georgia. The ruling coalition Georgian Dream is looking for yet another term. The war in Ukraine has split the country again between those who seek deeper integration with the West and hope to join the European Union in the future and those who advocate normalising relations with Russia. November 11 – 20th anniversary of the death of Yasser Arafat. The historic Palestinian leader and president of the Palestinian National Authority died 20 years ago in Paris. He played a crucial role in the Middle East peace process, which, along with Israeli leaders Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994. November 18-19 – G-20 summit in Brazil. Under the theme "Building a just world and sustainable planet", the main topics for discussion and debate at this meeting will include energy transition and development, reform of the global governance institutions, and the fight against inequality, hunger and poverty. December – Presidential elections in Algeria. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune is expected to run for re-election. The country faces several security challenges due to the instability in the Sahel and the rising tension with Morocco over the Western Sahara. It also plays a crucial role as a supplier of gas to Europe amid the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. December – General elections in South Sudan. The terms of the peace agreement of 2018, which put an end to an internal armed conflict lasting five years, established the forming of a government of national unity led by the current president, Salva Kiir, and his rival, the vice president, Riek Machar. Kiir has proposed holding free presidential elections in late 2024. December 7 – Presidential elections in Ghana. The elections are expected to be a two-horse race between Mahamudu Bawumia, the current vice president of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), and the former president, John Dramani Mahama, the candidate of the main opposition party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC). The country is facing its worst economic crisis of recent decades and major security challenges because of the geopolitical situation in the Sahel. Second half of 2024 – Presidential elections in Venezuela. The Chavistas and the opposition gathered under the umbrella of the Unitary Platform reached an agreement in Barbados on staging presidential elections that provides for the invitation of regional and international observers. The decision came as the United States announced the lifting of sanctions on Venezuelan gas and oil in October 2023. Pending – 53rd Pacific Islands Forum. Tonga is to host a new meeting of the main discussion forum spanning the region of Oceania, which brings together the interests of 18 states and territories on matters of climate change, the sustainable use of maritime resources, security and regional cooperation. It is a geographical space of growing interest to China and the United States, which have begun a diplomatic race to draw some of these countries and territories into their spheres of influence. Pending – 44th ASEAN Summit. Laos will host a new meeting of Southeast Asia's main regional forum, which brings together 10 countries. The theme this time is "Enhancing connectivity and resilience". Pending – AI Safety Summit. France will host the second meeting of this international summit whose goal is to foster work and initiatives to tackle the risks posed by artificial intelligence. The first event, held in London in 2023, resulted in the Bletchley Declaration, which advocated greater international cooperation to address the challenges and risks associated with artificial intelligence. Pending – 33rd Arab League Summit. Bahrein will host a fresh meeting of the main political organisation gathering the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, food and energy security issues, and the regional impacts of the war in Ukraine will be some of the main topics of discussion and debate. Pending – Presidential and parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka. The social tension in the country, mired in a deep economic crisis that has led to an International Monetary Fund rescue, has increased in recent months and is expected to intensify throughout the electoral process. Pending – General elections in Chad. Chad's transitional president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, who came to power in April 2021 via a military junta following the death of his father, Idriss Déby, promised the staging of free elections in late 2024. The country is facing a serious food and security crisis. Pending – 3rd Summit for Democracy. South Korea will be the host of this US-promoted summit, which since 2021 has gathered heads of government and leaders from civil society and the private sector. Its goal is to address the challenges and opportunities facing democracies in the 21st century on matters relating to democratic governance, safeguarding human rights and fighting corruption. Pending – General and regional elections in South Africa. The African National Congress (ANC), in power since the first free and general elections in 1994, is looking to stay there, although the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, could pull off a surprise. The country faces countless challenges, particularly in matters of security thanks to soaring crime rates, a major energy crisis and high unemployment. Pending – Presidential elections in Tunisia. They will be the first elections since the power grab by the Tunisian president, Kaïs Saied, in 2021 and the return to authoritarianism of the only country that appeared to have consolidated democracy following the Arab Spring of 2010-2011. Saied has already announced he will not allow the presence of international election observers.DOI: https://doi.org/10.24241/NotesInt.2023/299/enAll the publications express the opinions of their individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of CIDOB as an institution
