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none ; 1 ; Authors: Palombi F., Toti S. ; The stochastic dynamics of the multi-state voter model is investigated on a class of complex networks made of non-overlapping cliques, each hosting a political candidate and interacting with the others via Erdo{double acute}s-Rényi links. Numerical simulations of the model are interpreted in terms of an ad-hoc mean field theory, specifically tuned to resolve the inter/intra-clique interactions. Under a proper definition of the thermodynamic limit (with the average degree of the agents kept fixed while increasing the network size), the model is found to display the empirical scaling discovered by Fortunato and Castellano (Phys Rev Lett 99(13):138701, 2007), while the vote distribution resembles roughly that observed in Brazilian elections. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York. ; none ; 10840/6325 ; Palombi, F. ; Palombi, F.

Elections are a socio-political institution, during which holding it is determined what the nature of the reforms will be in the next few years. It is important that the legitimacy of the electoral process is high and that key reforms are determined by competent government officials. The basic element of elections is a high level of competition, which should exist not only between various political entities that exercise eligibility to vote and right to be elected but also within such structures fighting for power.

The paper contains an analysis concerning the issue on the functioning of the proportional vote distribution institute. According to the election results, it is necessary to determine how many seats will go to a certain party, which, according to the proportional system, has overcome the percentage barrier. In world practice, there is a whole range of proportional distribution methods that form two large groups: the largest remainder methods and the dividers methods. There are discussions on this parameter, and each country has adopted its own methodology. In Russia, with a proportional distribution of seats, one of the largest remainder methods is used, namely, the Hare method. The study will reflect the analysis of the functioning of proportional distribution systems in Russia and in the world.

It is noted that the large networks have for quite a few yrs been using computer prediction models for forecasting election results, but have rarely made them available to local stations for elections below the congressional level. One such application of basic statistical tools to predict vote outcome in local precincts is described. It is the Key Precinct Projection technique, which had various trial runs & makes it possible to predict local returns within a few hours after the polls close on election eve. The procedure was used in Nov 1965 in Toledo's direct mayor & city council races & was formalized 1 yr later & expanded for presentation on a local TV station (WSPD-TV) in conjunction with its Northwestern Ohio election night coverage. For this live test, 9 specific races & 1 local issue were selected, primarily on the basis of interest to the community. The elections covered ranged from county-wide balloting for governor, county commissioner, & the 9th district congressional seat, to isolated precinct balloting for State House of Representative positions. A city-wide payroll tax levy & a State Senate race rounded out the local coverage. The 1967 & 1968 elections were covered in similar manner. Correct predictions of election returns were obtained in all cases. The average error rate ranged from 1.7% to 2%. It is stated that the Key Precinct Projection technique has been extremely promising to date, but a number of refinements are being evaluated in an attempt to narrow the error ranges of the predicted data. Under the current system, key precincts are selected anew for each election from a pre-listing. Sample precincts are selected sequentially to assure physical distribution throughout the community. It is planned to check whether more accurate estimates can be obtained by selecting precincts from a pre-listing which is ordered on party vote. This should correctly align voters by pol'al preference. M. Maxfield.

Analysis of the Constitutional Treaty of the European Union shows that there is a serious discrepancy between the voting power gradient of Member States computed by the Shapley-Shubik and Banzhaf indices. Given the lack of compelling arguments to choose between these indices on purely axiomatic grounds, we turn to a probabilistic approach as pioneered by Straffin (1977) focusing on the probability distribution of voting poll outcomes. We present a unifying model of power indices as expected decisiveness, which shows that the defining feature of each approach is a particular distribution of the voting poll. Empirical evidence drawn from voting situations, in addition to a consideration of first principles, leads us to reject one of these approaches. The unified formulation allows us to develop useful related concepts of efficiency and blocking leverage, previously used solely by a 'Banzhaf' approach, for the case of Shapley-Shubik, and a comparison of results is shown.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. ; External voting by nonresident citizens has become an important feature of contemporary democratic politics. However, compared to the average voter in domestic elections, we still know significantly less about migrants' motivations to vote or not. Whereas analyses of external voting patterns offer insights into the results of external voting compared to origin populations, there is a lacuna of knowledge about why migrants choose to vote, or not, when they have the right to do so. This article seeks to address this gap by building a framework rooted in both the electoral studies literature and on the growing body of knowledge on external voting within migration studies. We consider migrant voters' desire, mobilization, and ability to vote, and map the locus of all factors—either in the country of residence, country of origin, or within transnational political space. We explore evidence from 80 in-depth interviews, collected January–May 2020, with four groups of intra-European migrants—Romanian and Polish residing in Norway and Spain—to map the determinants of external voting. Our research generates three insights which challenge or nuance extant research on external voting. We show how migrants' motivations to vote depend not only on residence and origin contexts but also on subjective factors and perceptions of the legitimacy of external voting. This article complements existing macrolevel studies of voting determinants with an in-depth qualitative microperspective and generates hypotheses that can be further tested in large-n as well as cross-regional comparisons. ; publishedVersion

http://mappemonde.mgm.fr/num6/articles/art05209.html ; International audience ; In the current political turmoil in Lebanon, the electoral stakes are high and warrant assessment. The Lebanese electoral system aims to give proper representation to religious minorities. The electoral rolls are based on their territorial location. However, these electoral territories now differ greatly from the population distribution that can be observed on the ground after a century of migration and the civil war. This leads to a disconnection between the electoral territory and the actual country. Consequently, political networking and gerrymandering are key resources in the hands of decision makers. ; L'actualité politique au Liban rend nécessaire un décryptage des enjeux du système électoral. Celui-ci a pour objectif la représentation des minorités confessionnelles en prenant pour référence leur répartition sur le territoire, telle que les listes électorales la déterminent. Or, ces territoires du vote ne correspondent plus à la répartition effective de la population bouleversée par un siècle de migrations et la guerre civile. Il en résulte une disjonction d'échelle entre le territoire du vote et le territoire de référence. Dans ce contexte, la capacité de mobilisation des réseaux politiques et la maîtrise de l'échelle territoriale à laquelle le vote s'exprime apparaissent comme des ressources essentielles aux mains des acteurs politiques.

http://mappemonde.mgm.fr/num6/articles/art05209.html ; International audience ; In the current political turmoil in Lebanon, the electoral stakes are high and warrant assessment. The Lebanese electoral system aims to give proper representation to religious minorities. The electoral rolls are based on their territorial location. However, these electoral territories now differ greatly from the population distribution that can be observed on the ground after a century of migration and the civil war. This leads to a disconnection between the electoral territory and the actual country. Consequently, political networking and gerrymandering are key resources in the hands of decision makers. ; L'actualité politique au Liban rend nécessaire un décryptage des enjeux du système électoral. Celui-ci a pour objectif la représentation des minorités confessionnelles en prenant pour référence leur répartition sur le territoire, telle que les listes électorales la déterminent. Or, ces territoires du vote ne correspondent plus à la répartition effective de la population bouleversée par un siècle de migrations et la guerre civile. Il en résulte une disjonction d'échelle entre le territoire du vote et le territoire de référence. Dans ce contexte, la capacité de mobilisation des réseaux politiques et la maîtrise de l'échelle territoriale à laquelle le vote s'exprime apparaissent comme des ressources essentielles aux mains des acteurs politiques.

http://mappemonde.mgm.fr/num6/articles/art05209.html ; International audience ; In the current political turmoil in Lebanon, the electoral stakes are high and warrant assessment. The Lebanese electoral system aims to give proper representation to religious minorities. The electoral rolls are based on their territorial location. However, these electoral territories now differ greatly from the population distribution that can be observed on the ground after a century of migration and the civil war. This leads to a disconnection between the electoral territory and the actual country. Consequently, political networking and gerrymandering are key resources in the hands of decision makers. ; L'actualité politique au Liban rend nécessaire un décryptage des enjeux du système électoral. Celui-ci a pour objectif la représentation des minorités confessionnelles en prenant pour référence leur répartition sur le territoire, telle que les listes électorales la déterminent. Or, ces territoires du vote ne correspondent plus à la répartition effective de la population bouleversée par un siècle de migrations et la guerre civile. Il en résulte une disjonction d'échelle entre le territoire du vote et le territoire de référence. Dans ce contexte, la capacité de mobilisation des réseaux politiques et la maîtrise de l'échelle territoriale à laquelle le vote s'exprime apparaissent comme des ressources essentielles aux mains des acteurs politiques.

http://mappemonde.mgm.fr/num6/articles/art05209.html ; International audience ; In the current political turmoil in Lebanon, the electoral stakes are high and warrant assessment. The Lebanese electoral system aims to give proper representation to religious minorities. The electoral rolls are based on their territorial location. However, these electoral territories now differ greatly from the population distribution that can be observed on the ground after a century of migration and the civil war. This leads to a disconnection between the electoral territory and the actual country. Consequently, political networking and gerrymandering are key resources in the hands of decision makers. ; L'actualité politique au Liban rend nécessaire un décryptage des enjeux du système électoral. Celui-ci a pour objectif la représentation des minorités confessionnelles en prenant pour référence leur répartition sur le territoire, telle que les listes électorales la déterminent. Or, ces territoires du vote ne correspondent plus à la répartition effective de la population bouleversée par un siècle de migrations et la guerre civile. Il en résulte une disjonction d'échelle entre le territoire du vote et le territoire de référence. Dans ce contexte, la capacité de mobilisation des réseaux politiques et la maîtrise de l'échelle territoriale à laquelle le vote s'exprime apparaissent comme des ressources essentielles aux mains des acteurs politiques.

http://mappemonde.mgm.fr/num6/articles/art05209.html ; International audience ; In the current political turmoil in Lebanon, the electoral stakes are high and warrant assessment. The Lebanese electoral system aims to give proper representation to religious minorities. The electoral rolls are based on their territorial location. However, these electoral territories now differ greatly from the population distribution that can be observed on the ground after a century of migration and the civil war. This leads to a disconnection between the electoral territory and the actual country. Consequently, political networking and gerrymandering are key resources in the hands of decision makers. ; L'actualité politique au Liban rend nécessaire un décryptage des enjeux du système électoral. Celui-ci a pour objectif la représentation des minorités confessionnelles en prenant pour référence leur répartition sur le territoire, telle que les listes électorales la déterminent. Or, ces territoires du vote ne correspondent plus à la répartition effective de la population bouleversée par un siècle de migrations et la guerre civile. Il en résulte une disjonction d'échelle entre le territoire du vote et le territoire de référence. Dans ce contexte, la capacité de mobilisation des réseaux politiques et la maîtrise de l'échelle territoriale à laquelle le vote s'exprime apparaissent comme des ressources essentielles aux mains des acteurs politiques.

This study attempts to reveal the impact of distribution inequality of electoral districts on the election outcomes in Jordan. Since 1993 elections, electoral laws and regulations have been adopted that underestimate population density in Jordan, meaning that some regions with lower population densities have obtained more parliamentary seats than regions with high population density, including the governorates of Amman, Irbid and Zarqa. Successive Jordanian governments' strategies have intentionally ignored electoral geography, which reduces the chances of mainly the Palestinian component obtaining significant numbers of seats in the Parliament. Governments have also sought to mitigate the chances of Islamic, Leftist and Nationalist parties obtaining a majority of seats in the Parliament, and thus being able to exert effective pressure to hold the executive authority accountable and responsible for its actions. In addition, low levels of confidence of most Jordanian citizens in Parliament have resulted in a lack of true desire to vote, which has led to an increase in the percentage of wasted votes compared with the cast votes. The study concludes that the executive authority's domination in drawing and dividing electoral districts as part of its hegemony and control over the general policy of elections has purposefully neglected population density and geographical criteria. In light of the study results, an urgent need arises to endorse an election law that accomplishes the standards of distributive justice, maximizes the role of supportive and opposition parties, raises citizen confidence in Parliaments, reduces the percentage of wasted votes and finally activates a truly representative Parliament.