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This paper aims to make two contributions to the sustainability transitions literature, in particular the Geels and Schot (2007) transition pathways typology. First, it reformulates and differentiates the typology through the lens of endogenous enactment, identifying the main patterns for actors, formal institutions, and technologies. Second, it suggests that transitions may shift between pathways, depending on struggles over technology deployment and institutions. Both contributions are demonstrated with a comparative analysis of unfolding low-carbon electricity transitions in Germany and the UK between 1990-2014. The analysis shows that Germany is on a substitution pathway, enacted by new entrants deploying small-scale renewable electricity technologies (RETs), while the UK is on a transformation pathway, enacted by incumbent actors deploying large-scale RETs. Further analysis shows that the German transition has recently shifted from a '˜stretch-and-transform'™ substitution pathway to a '˜fit-and-conform'™ pathway, because of a fightback from utilities and altered institutions. It also shows that the UK transition moved from moderate to substantial incumbent reorientation, as government policies became stronger. Recent policy changes, however, substantially downscaled UK renewables support, which is likely to shift the transition back to weaker reorientation.

© 2021 by the authors. ; Universities are central organisations that can act as promoters and amplifiers of regional just transitions. In this paper, we analyse how a Colombian regional university, the University of Ibagué (UI), is playing this role through two initiatives: (1) a governance experiment piloted between 2018 and 2019 that constructed an aspirational vision for this university through the definition of eight human capabilities; (2) a formal curriculum regional programme named Peace and Region (P&R) established in 2010 as a service-learning strategy for undergraduates in their final year. To analyse the contribution of these two initiatives towards a just transition, we built a specific analytical framework based on the human development and capability approach and Regional Transition Pathways to Sustainability (RTPS). Exploring both the content and the process of building the list and perceptions of the different actors involved in the P&R programme, we found that both initiatives have a strong directionality that resonates with the normative ambition of a just transition. Moreover, in both processes, people involved have expanded human capabilities, and co-produced holistic and transdisciplinary knowledge through the interaction of academic and non-academic actors. From an RTPS perspective, the programme captures regional complexity and moulds micro-dynamics to socially fair and sustainable paths. ; The fieldwork done in Colombia by Alejandra Boni was funded by BEST/2019 Programme of the Generalitat Valenciana (Valencia, Spain) and CYTED Programme through the Red Multibien (618RT0560). We also acknowledge the contribution of the Adsideo 2020 fund granted by the Universitat Politècnica de València.The fieldwork done in Colombia by Carlos Delgado was funded by the Universidad de Ibagué and Ingenio.

AbstractAt many levels of society—in regions, corporations, and among citizens—awareness is increasing, and actions towards more sustainable energy are being taken. The key drivers of this transition have been climate change, the scarcity of resources, and environmental consciousness. The speed of change and its impacts on the energy system transition are still unknown. It is therefore important to anticipate probable, preferable, or avoidable future paths that will contribute to the discussion of the direction and conditions of such futures. In this article, five energy scenarios are presented for Finland until 2030. The scenarios are based on a two-round Delphi application, in which energy experts were first interviewed and then a survey phase was conducted. We used cluster analysis to construct the scenarios and arranged the responses to open-ended questions as narratives to deepen the scenarios. Based on the cluster analysis, five clusters were constructed, namely, (1) business as usual, (2) energy saving and decarbonisation, (3) climate-friendly transformation, (4) green growth, and (5) degrowth. These scenarios illustrate how varying sets of drivers of change in society, and a set of energy policy measures, are connected with energy futures. Expert information thus organised can be used to advise policymakers when designing future climate and energy policy.

Diese Masterarbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Simulation von Auswirkungen politischer Initiativen auf die dekarbonisierung von thermischen Energiesystemen in städtischen Gemeinden. Besonderes Augenmerk wird auf den Wohnungsbau gelegt, der einen erheblichen Anteil, sowohl am lokalen Energiebedarf als auch an den Kohlendioxid-Emissionen in Städten ausmacht. Die zugrunde liegenden Methoden zur Berechnung des Heizenergiebedarfs von Gebäuden sowie die Auswirkungen des Austausches von Heizungsanlagen werden diskutiert. Darüber hinaus werden Potenzialzonen für thermische Energiesysteme modelliert um mögliche Entwicklungen der Kohlendioxid-Emissionen berechnen zu können. Hierfür wird ein agentenbasiertes Modell entwickelt, in welchem der Fokus auf jene Gebäude gelegt wird, für welche eine umfassende Renovierung notwendig ist. Um das Modell mit Daten zu füllen, müssen eine Reihe von Open-Source- und kommerziellen Datensätzen räumlich analysiert und zusammengeführt werden. Daraus wird ein Datenmodell entwickelt, das als Grundlage für die agentenbasierte Modellierung dient. Dieses Modell berechnet zukünftige Heizsysteme, den Anteil erneuerbarer Energien sowie den Heizenergiebedarf und die Kohlendioxid-Emissionen. Insgesamt werden sechs Szenarien berechnet, welche alle den Zeitraum von 2018 bis 2050, das ist jenes Jahr in dem die Pariser Klimaziele erreicht werden sollen, abdecken. Drei Szenarien sind als Basisszenarien konzipiert, die eine "business as usual", eine ambitionierte und eine ökonomische Zukunftsentwicklung prognostizieren. Drei Weitere werden in Kombination mit soziodemografischen Daten entwickelt und spiegeln das Verhalten der Hausbesitzer bei der Renovierung ihrer Gebäude wieder. Es wird gezeigt, dass öffentliche Maßnahmen für den die Dekarbonisierung im Heizungssektor entsprechend simuliert werden können und eine Folgenabschätzung für die nachhaltige Entwicklung von städtischen Wärmeversorgungssystemen durchgeführt werden kann. ; This master thesis deals with an approach to simulate the effect of public policies regarding thermal energy transition pathways in urban communities. Special focus is given to the residential building sector which amounts for a significant proportion of the local energy demand as well as local carbon dioxide emissions in cities and communities. The underlying methods for calculating the Heating Energy Demand of buildings and the effects of the replacement of heating systems are discussed. Furthermore, potential zones for thermal energy systems are modelled. Based on these data, possible developments regarding carbon dioxide emissions will be calculated for the City of Gleisdorf. Therefore, a spatial Agent-based Model will be developed in which buildings are the main objects that are subject to change, based on a number of technical and socio-demographic parameters. To fill this model with data, a number of open source and commercially available data sets need to be spatially analysed and merged. From this, a spatial relational data model is developed, which serves as a basis for the Agent-based Model. The so developed model calculates the future heating systems, the share of renewable energies, as well as the Heating Energy Demand and the carbon dioxide emissions. In total, six scenarios are calculated, all starting in 2018 and ending in 2050, the year in which the Paris climate targets are to be achieved. Of these, three scenarios are designed as baseline scenarios, which predict a "business as usual", an ambitious and an economic future development. Three further scenarios will be developed in the combination of socio-demographic data and will reflect the behaviour of homeowners renovating their buildings. It should be shown that public policies for the transition of thermal energy can be simulated accordingly. Finally, a meaningful impact assessment of energy policy interventions for a sustainable development of urban heat supply systems should be carried out. ; Lina Stanzel BSc ; Zusammenfassungen in Deutsch und Englisch ; Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Masterarbeit, 2019 ; (VLID)4552196

A framework to account for social acceptance in the modelling of energy-transition pathways is outlined. The geographical focus is on the Nordic-Baltic energy region and the technological focus is on onshore wind power and power transmission, which are considered key technologies in achieving carbon-neutral energy systems in northern Europe. We combine qualitative analysis of social acceptance with quantitative assessments of scenarios using techno-economic energy-system modelling. Key factors in and consequences of social acceptance are identified, especially environmental, health, and distributional factors, as well as costs for developers and society. The energy system analysis includes four scenarios illustrating the system effects and costs of low social acceptance. The results indicate that if low social acceptance were to restrict investments in onshore wind power, costlier solar photovoltaics and offshore wind power would step in. Greater social acceptance cost for onshore wind and transmission lines favours local solutions and a more balanced renewable energy mix. There are important distributional effects: no restrictions on transmission line investments benefit power producers while raising consumer prices in the Nordic-Baltic energy region, while very low social acceptance of onshore wind power would lead to 12% higher consumer costs. The results imply that socio-technical and political factors such as social acceptance may significantly affect transition pathway scenarios based on techno-economic variables alone. Therefore, the techno-economic, socio-technical and political layers of co-evolution of energy systems should be considered when analysing long-term energy transitions. It is important to link energy-system models with a consideration of the dynamics of socio-technical factors.

This dissertation takes as its point of departure the recent renewal of the interest of the Chinese state in agricultural development. The approach of this research is twofold: political and sociological. The political approach focuses on the analysis of agricultural modernization policies between 2004 and 2014, with the aim of understanding the frames of reference of agricultural modernization promoted by the central government, which is characterized by two main goals – food security and economic development – and three main levers – science and technology, industries and the rural exodus. The spreading of this dominant frame of reference has effects on the sociological patterns of agricultural production, which are explored by the second approach of this research in four targeted areas: Beijing, Shandong, Jiangxi and Ningxia. Drawing on fieldwork and interviews, this sociological analysis investigates the modalities of the reinvolvement of Chinese government officials in rural areas through the implementation of policies aimed at modernizing agricultural production and examines the pattern of relationships and the roles played by political and economic stakeholders in the modernization process. The analysis of the sociopolitical frames built in the course of the modernization of agricultural production enables to identify the features of the agricultural modernization pathway China is engaging on. In particular, the established patterns of power and institutions in rural areas led to the establishment of roadblocks that impede transition towards social and environmental sustainability of agricultural production. ; Notre recherche, qui prend pour point de départ le récent renouveau de l'intérêt du gouvernement chinois pour le développement agricole, s'appuie sur deux approches. La première se fonde sur une analyse des documents de référence promulguant les lignes directrices des politiques de modernisation agricole entre 2004 et 2014, et a pour but de saisir les traits du référentiel dominant de modernisation ...

This dissertation takes as its point of departure the recent renewal of the interest of the Chinese state in agricultural development. The approach of this research is twofold: political and sociological. The political approach focuses on the analysis of agricultural modernization policies between 2004 and 2014, with the aim of understanding the frames of reference of agricultural modernization promoted by the central government, which is characterized by two main goals – food security and economic development – and three main levers – science and technology, industries and the rural exodus. The spreading of this dominant frame of reference has effects on the sociological patterns of agricultural production, which are explored by the second approach of this research in four targeted areas: Beijing, Shandong, Jiangxi and Ningxia. Drawing on fieldwork and interviews, this sociological analysis investigates the modalities of the reinvolvement of Chinese government officials in rural areas through the implementation of policies aimed at modernizing agricultural production and examines the pattern of relationships and the roles played by political and economic stakeholders in the modernization process. The analysis of the sociopolitical frames built in the course of the modernization of agricultural production enables to identify the features of the agricultural modernization pathway China is engaging on. In particular, the established patterns of power and institutions in rural areas led to the establishment of roadblocks that impede transition towards social and environmental sustainability of agricultural production. ; Notre recherche, qui prend pour point de départ le récent renouveau de l'intérêt du gouvernement chinois pour le développement agricole, s'appuie sur deux approches. La première se fonde sur une analyse des documents de référence promulguant les lignes directrices des politiques de modernisation agricole entre 2004 et 2014, et a pour but de saisir les traits du référentiel dominant de modernisation tel que promu par le gouvernement central. Ce référentiel dominant, en particulier, promeut deux objectifs principaux – la sécurité alimentaire et le développement économique – et trois outils de mise en œuvre : le développement scientifique et technologique, l'implication des entreprises et l'exode rural. La diffusion de ce référentiel dominant a des conséquences sur les schémas sociologiques de la production agricole, que la deuxième approche explore au sein de quatre régions d'étude situées dans les provinces, zones administrative et municipalité du Ningxia, du Jiangxi, du Shandong et de Pékin. Cette analyse sociologique se penche sur l'étude des modalités de réinvestissement des activités de production agricole par les officiels locaux et montre que ces derniers s'appuient de manière préférentielle sur un réseau d'agroentrepreneurs industriels locaux. L'analyse des structures relationnelles locales qui se forment ou se cristallisent au cours de ce processus permet de saisir les contours de la trajectoire de modernisation sur laquelle s'engage aujourd'hui l'agriculture chinoise et révèle la formation d'obstacles institutionnels et sociologiques à l'évolution des pratiques agricoles vers plus de durabilité sociale et environnementale.

This paper proposes an innovative framework to describe sustainable transitions of food systems while considering simultaneously socio-economic and environmental issues, in a just transition perspective. This framework (i) describes the structural changes needed for a sustainable transition in food systems ; (ii) assess their effects on employment at the farm and processing industry level ; (iii) detect the political levers needed to make this transition a just one—that is, preserving jobs and livelihoods for communities. Using the decarbonation pathway for the agricultural sector issued from the French National Low-Carbon Strategy as reference, we developed two scenarios for the French dairy sector which have the same level of climate ambitious, but a different approach to reach the target. Aiming exclusively to achieve a greenhouse gases reduction, the first scenario relies only on supply side measures. This scenario has a negative impact in terms of employment loss at the farm level and in the agri-food sector. In contrast, a multifunctional scenario considering simultaneously climate, biodiversity, health, and employment issues, and playing with policy measures targeting supply, demand and market organisation can maintain jobs in the farm and agri-food sector, contributes to restore the agro-biodiversity and develops food products compatible with healthy nutritional guidelines.

International audience ; This paper proposes an innovative framework to describe sustainable transitions of food systems while considering simultaneously socio-economic and environmental issues, in a just transition perspective. This framework (i) describes the structural changes needed for a sustainable transition in food systems; (ii) assess their effects on employment at the farm and processing industry level; (iii) detect the political levers needed to make this transition a just one—that is, preserving jobs and livelihoods for communities. Using the decarbonation pathway for the agricultural sector issued from the French National Low-Carbon Strategy as reference, we developed two scenarios for the French dairy sector which have the same level of climate ambitious, but a different approach to reach the target. Aiming exclusively to achieve a greenhouse gases reduction, the first scenario relies only on supply side measures. This scenario has a negative impact in terms of employment loss at the farm level and in the agri-food sector. In contrast, a multifunctional scenario considering simultaneously climate, biodiversity, health, and employment issues, and playing with policy measures targeting supply, demand and market organisation can maintain jobs in the farm and agri-food sector, contributes to restore the agro-biodiversity and develops food products compatible with healthy nutritional guidelines.

tThis paper aims to make two contributions to the sustainability transitions literature, in particular theGeels and Schot (2007. Res. Policy 36(3), 399) transition pathways typology. First, it reformulates anddifferentiates the typology through the lens of endogenous enactment, identifying the main patternsfor actors, formal institutions, and technologies. Second, it suggests that transitions may shift betweenpathways, depending on struggles over technology deployment and institutions. Both contributions aredemonstrated with a comparative analysis of unfolding low-carbon electricity transitions in Germanyand the UK between 1990–2014. The analysis shows that Germany is on a substitution pathway, enactedby new entrants deploying small-scale renewable electricity technologies (RETs), while the UK is on atransformation pathway, enacted by incumbent actors deploying large-scale RETs. Further analysis showsthat the German transition has recently shifted from a 'stretch-and-transform' substitution pathway to a'fit-and-conform' pathway, because of a fightback from utilities and altered institutions. It also shows thatthe UK transition moved from moderate to substantial incumbent reorientation, as government policiesbecame stronger. Recent policy changes, however, substantially downscaled UK renewables support,which is likely to shift the transition back to weaker reorientation.

This paper deals with the fertility transition, one of the two essential components of the demographic transition. The analysis demonstrates that by applying the cohort perspective new insights are obtained about how the fertility transition unfolded. Within the overall framework of the fertility transition there were four distinct pathways of fertility trends. Combining these findings with those of other scholars shows that the demographic transition has not yet led to an equilibrium of relatively stable low mortality and stable low fertility.The four fertility transition pathways are the following: (1) The Western fertility transition pathway characterized by major cohort total fertility rate (CTFR) fluctuations; (2) the South European fertility transition pathway characterized by an almost uninterrupted CTFR decline; (3) the Central and East European fertility transition pathway characterized by stable CTFRs in the 1920s to 1950s cohorts and a decline in the 1960s and 1970s cohorts; (4) the East and South-East Asia fertility transition pathway characterized by a late start in the mid-20th century with rapidly declining CTFRs.The exploration of societal conditions shaping fertility trends in the 19th and 20th centuries confirms Notestein's conclusions that the causes are a complex combination of "technological, social, economic, and political developments" as well as cultural and ideational effects, and that it is "impossible to be precise about the various causal factors". At times the primary factors were economic, as in the Great Depression of the 1930s and the 1960s post-war prosperity in Western countries. However, these economic factors also had many political, cultural, social, policy and other important facets. In Central and Eastern Europe the primary factors during the era of state socialism were the political system and social policies. The patriarchal nature of societies was the prime factor shaping fertility trends in Southern Europe and in East and South-East Asia.

We have argued in Electing to Fight and other writings that an incomplete democratic transition increases the risk of international and civil war in countries that lack the institutional capacity to sustain democratic politics. The combination of increasing mass political participation and weak political institutions creates the motive and the opportunity for both rising and declining elites to play the nationalist card in an attempt to rally popular support against domestic and foreign rivals.