Suchergebnisse

We generalize the standard repeated‐games model of dynamic oligopolistic competition to allow for consumers who are long‐lived and forward looking. Each period leaves some residual demand to future periods and pricing in one period affects consumers' expectations about future prices. We analyze this setting for an indivisible durable good with price‐setting firms and overlapping cohorts of consumers. The model nests the repeated‐game model and the Coasian durable‐goods model as its two extreme cases. The analysis is mostly focused on constant‐price collusion but conditions for collusive recurrent sales are also identified.

Over the next century, the impact of the AIDS epidemic on the supply of and returns to factors of production may be significant. Public policies might offset some of the long run impacts, especially if initiated early in the epidemic. History suggests the types of economic effects that can occur in the long run and the limits of public policies' effectiveness in controlling diseases of this type. The models developed here to show possible long run time paths for the epidemic also imply a long‐run equilibrium, a concept not appreciated in most disciplines. Because data defciencies make long run numerical forecasting highly controversial, this paper uses history and modeling to emphasize qualitative understanding of the epidemic.

We extend the analysis of Christoffersen and Diebold (1998) on long-run forecasting in cointegrated systems to multicointegrated systems. For the forecast evaluation we consider several loss functions, each of which has a particular interpretation in the context of stock-flow models where multicointegration typically occurs. A loss function based on a standard mean square forecast error (MSFE) criterion focuses on the forecast errors of the flow variables alone. Likewise, a loss function based on the triangular representation of cointegrated systems (suggested by Christoffersen and Diebold) considers forecast errors associated with changes in both stock (modelled through the cointegrating restrictions) and flow variables. We suggest a new loss function which is based on the triangular representation of multicointegrated systems which further penalizes deviations from the long-run relationship between the levels of stock and flow variables as well as changes in the flow variables. Among other things, we show that if one is concerned with all possible long-run relations between stock and flow variables, this new loss function entails high and increasing forecasting gains compared to both the standard MSFE criterion and Christoffersen and Diebold's criterion. The paper demonstrates the importance of carefully selecting loss functions in forecast evaluation of models involving stock and flow variables.

'Stocks for the Long Run' by Jeremy J. Siegel is reviewed.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this article is to present the result of the comparison of the short‑run and the long‑run solutions available for the Eurozone crisis. The main focus lies in examining if the provisions provided for the short‑term are sufficient compared to the long‑term solutions.THE RESEARCH PROBLEM AND METHODS: The existing monetary policy in the European Monetary Union at the beginning of the crisis will be examined together with the measures pursued immediately following the crisis as well as future prospects. The study is based on a literature review.THE PROCESS OF ARGUMENTATION: The monetary policy showed structural problems clearly emphasizing that the Eurozone was not prepared to address this crisis. The first reactive measures were taken several months after the start of the crisis. The implemented solutions on the short‑run did not meet the requirements to garner lost trust and determination. In summary, the decided provisions on the short‑run solutions were not sufficient.RESEARCH RESULTS: On the one hand, some efforts were made to find short run solutions. But these short‑run solutions could not solve the financial difficulties of the affected Eurozone countries. On the other hand, long‑run solutions are highly discussed in the literature but are not set in place. Therefore, only a political and monetary union can solve the structural problems of the Eurozone. However, in the foreseeable future, politicians need to spend more efforts into this aim.CONCLUSION, INNOVATION AND RECOMMENDATION: The paper underlines the need for a political and monetary union. A first step in the long‑term would be the introduction of the European Monetary Fund and later on the Eurobonds.

In a number of evolutionary models the presence of mutations, or random components of choice, serve to refine predictions of long-run behavior. We analyze the effects of mutation rates that vary because of the presence of imitation. A full characterization of long-run outcomes is provided for familiar coordination and congestion games, and also a number of other games not previously considered within the evolutionary framework. Our results are often quite distinct from those in the literature. We apply these tools to a series of economic applications, including market games, where imitation can explain excess volatility of prices, and location games, where it leads to greater uniformity in choices.

Annual estimates of the GDP of Victoria for the period 1861–1976/77 are here presented and used as a basis for an analysis of Victoria's long–run economic growth. Victoria is represented as having fallen behind the per capita GDP of Australia as a whole in the 1870s but to have out–paced the national growth rate from the early twentieth century until the late 1950s. The changing importance of natural resources and of the scope for manufacturing development are seen as the basis for an explanation of the Victorian divergence. The article carries the implication of a need for regional disaggregation in the analysis of Australian economic growth.

AbstractFrom any state of economic and environmental assets, the maximin value defines the highest level of utility that can be sustained forever. Along any development path, the maximin value evolves over time according to investment decisions. If the current level of utility is lower than this value, there is room for growth of both the utility level and the maximin value. For any resource allocation mechanism (ram) and economic dynamics, growth is limited by the long-run level of the maximin value, which is an endogenous dynamic sustainability constraint. If utility reaches this limit, sustainability imposes growth to stop, and the adoption of maximin decisions instead of the currentram. We illustrate this pattern in two canonical models, the simple fishery and a two-sector economy with a nonrenewable resource. We discuss what our results imply for the assessment of sustainability in the short and the long run in non-optimal economies.