Suchergebnisse

We consider carefully the evidence from traded prices (as proxied by unit values) concerning the transmission of the effects of globalisation to domestic labour markets. Using standard index number techniques we decompose changes in sectoral import and export unit values into movements due to changes in pure prices of the initial bundle of goods imported or exported and changes due to upgrading of that bundle. Looking at the imports of selected European countries of textiles, clothing and footwear relative to engineering products we find evidence of strongly falling pure prices of the unskilled intensive products relative to the skilled products in the 1980s. This reinforces the view that import prices can capture the impact of globalisation in terms of falling relative prices for products produced with the intensive use of unskilled labour. However, the trends are not common across all the unskilled sectors; footwear is clearly an exception. In the absence of detailed domestic data, we look for reactions by domestic firms to increased import competition in movements in the price and composition of exports. We find evidence of stiff price competition from imports being associated with similar movements in export prices and no support for the view that import competition from low–wage countries has led to upgrading of the quality of exports.

Ethiopia's export is largely dominated by primary commodities characterized by a high degree of price variability. Therefore, this study investigated the economy-wide impacts of export price changes using Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model calibrated through 2009/10 Social Accounting Matrix of Ethiopia, developed by International Food and Poverty Research Institute in collaboration with Ethiopia Development Research Institute and University of Sussex. The study reveals increase in export price appreciates domestic currency, rises import demand, but reduces export demand together that worsens Ethiopia trade balance. The increase in export price also weakens investment demand, government income and saving, the overall and sectoral economic growth. It also rises factors return and household income and welfare. Conversely, decrease in export price depreciates domestic currency, which lead to low import, but, high export demand, which in turn leads to improved trade balance. It also increases investment demand, government income and saving, and the overall economic growth. However, decrease in export price results low factors return, household income and welfare. To reduce the negative impacts of export price changes in the overall economy, it is recommended that: a) the exchange rate policy of the country should managed-floating type, b) diversification and industrialization of export sector through integrating commodity policies into the country overall development strategy, and c) harness the income gains from commodity prices to facilitate wider-economic transformations and reduction of dependence on primary commodities export.

A fast-changing global landscape highlights the importance of understanding spatial price dynamics in key international markets such as China, especially in the era of COVID-19 pandemic with international food trade and food system experiencing an unprecedented challenge. Nowadays, New Zealand's dominant position in China's dairy import market is being challenged by European Union (EU) dairy exporters leading to intensified market competition. Using monthly export data of skim milk powder (SMP), we applied threshold cointegration models along with asymmetric error correction models to examine spatial price dynamics and price transmissions of New Zealand and Ireland in Chinese and global markets. We found that New Zealand's export prices retain their leadership position in China, Ireland's export prices are well more aligned with those in international markets. In terms of own-country price transmission, Ireland's relatively symmetric and swift adjustments were found to contrast with New Zealand's SMP export prices, which displayed more asymmetric price transmissions.

Over the past two decades, the Black Sea region has exhibited significantly growing wheat production and exports. In 2017/18, Russia ultimately became the world's largest wheat exporter, a position that was held by the USA for decades. Mostly serving destination markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, Russian grain exports have become vital to ensuring regional and global food security. However, the Russian wheat export market shows several characteristics that can negatively affect agricultural trade, potentially jeopardizing food supply in import-dependent countries. First, in the face of severe harvest shortfalls, Russia and other Black Sea countries have frequently restricted grain exports in the past, which can contribute to price surges on international markets. Secondly, a functioning futures market reflecting Black Sea wheat does not yet exist. Grain traders therefore use established futures markets for price discovery and to hedge price risk in the Black Sea region, which can involve basis risk. Thirdly, previous research has suggested that Russian wheat exporters exercise market power in order to price discriminate among different destination markets. Further, grain exports can be hampered by deficiencies and bottlenecks in the Russian transportation and export infrastructure. Against this background, this dissertation analyzes how the ascent of Russian wheat exports changes the patterns of global physical trade, results in different pricing dynamics on physical and futures markets, and affects futures price volatility by changing trade policy. The methodological focus lies on time series econometrics, and price analysis in particular. Using vector autoregressive (VAR), autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and vector error correction models (VECM), the econometric analyses are conducted using price series recorded at varying frequencies (monthly to intradaily) to account for economic transactions occurring at different speed on physical compared to futures markets. An initial, descriptive analysis depicts the evolvement of Russian wheat exports over time, with respect to main destination regions. The focus on Russia's food trade with four key markets in the MENA region, namely Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran, shows that grain trade is the central component in the respective trade ties. The deepening or loosening of food trade relations corresponds to the present state of respective political ties. Further, a market integration and price leadership analysis is conducted using a multivariate VECM approach. Analyzing the Egyptian wheat tender market as a proxy for the world wheat market, results suggest that European export prices play an increasingly important role for international wheat price formation, likely stemming from close regional proximity between European and Black Sea markets. These results are in line with the findings of a VAR analysis focusing on realized volatility relations between Black Sea spot and leading futures markets. Here, prices posted at the Euronext Paris (EPA) futures market are determined to affect the Black Sea physical market, while such an effect is not found concerning the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) market. Further, this analysis provides evidence of asymmetric adjustment to ruble jumps, which suggests that Russian wheat prices are more likely to increase in response to exchange rate movements than they are to decrease. The final ARMA analysis shows that news about Russian grain export restrictions significantly increase intraday seasonally adjusted realized volatility on the CBoT futures market. Further, elevated volatility can be determined in days preceding such news publications. These pre-announcement effects offer important insights into the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in the studied market. The restructuring of the world wheat market resulting from the rise of Russian wheat exports is ongoing. Particularly with respect to futures markets, leading exchanges still compete to establish a functioning Black Sea wheat futures contract that could potentially serve as novel global pricing benchmark. Moreover, the Russian government continues to intervene in the grain trade by imposing export taxes or quotas. Against the background of growing world populations and increased likelihood of harvest shortfalls due to climate change, it is stressed that unimpeded food trade is indispensable to ensure global food security. Policy recommendations aiming to prevent the introduction of food export restrictions are provided at the end of the dissertation.

The volume of Central Java plywood exports to the United States fluctuated with the highest decline occurring in 2016 of 46,999,336 kg. The state of fluctuating export volume is not balanced with the United States' GDP which increases every year. There are several factors that affect the amount of plywood exports, namely the GDP of the destination country and the export price. The aim of this research is to analyze the influence of export price and United States GDP toward central java plywood export to United States both simultaneously and partially. This research is an explanatory research with quantitative approach. Multiple Linear Regression Analysis method is used in this research equipped with the Descriptive Statistics Test, Classic Assumption Test, Multiple Linear Regression, Coefficient of Determination, F-Test and t-Test. Data used in this study are secondary data which are obtained by doing a documentary study. The result of t-Test shows that Export Price there is no significant and positive influence on Central Java plywood Export Volume to United States, meanwhile United States GDP have significant and positive influence on Central Java plywood Export Volume to United States. The result of F-Test shows that Export Price and United States GDP simultaneously influence on Central Java plywood Export Volume to United States. Based on determination coefficient, export price and US GDP have an influence on Central Java plywood Export Volume to United States by 30.8%. Meanwhile, the remaining 69.2% was explained by another variable that was not examined in this study

The Ethiopian government initiated the Ethiopian Coffee Trademarking and Licensing Initiative in 2004 for three coffee origins: Sidama, Yirgacheffe and Harar. Following a court case between Starbucks and the Ethiopian government regarding this initiative, Oxfam organized a publicity campaign. This paper evaluates the effect of these interventions on the export prices of trademarked Ethiopian coffees. We find that the prices of the trademarked coffees increased by about 10\% following these interventions. The magnitude of this change is comparable with the farm gate prices reported in the literature; however, we cannot establish direct causation or observe the passthrough into farm gate prices.

The Ethiopian government initiated the Ethiopian Coffee Trademarking and Licensing Initiative in 2004 for three coffee origins: Sidama, Yirgacheffe and Harar. Following a court case between Starbucks and the Ethiopian government regarding this initiative, Oxfam organized a publicity campaign. This paper evaluates the effect of these interventions on the export prices of trademarked Ethiopian coffees. We find that the prices of the trademarked coffees increased by about 10% following these interventions. The magnitude of this change is comparable with the farm gate prices reported in the literature; however, we cannot establish direct causation or observe the passthrough into farm gate prices.