Suchergebnisse

In recent years, several large-scale data-collection projects have produced georeferenced, disaggregated events-level conflict data which can aid researchers in studying the microlevel dynamics of civil war. This article describes the differences between the two leading conflict events datasets, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Events Dataset (UCDP GED) and the Armed Conflict Location Events Dataset (ACLED), including their relative strengths and weaknesses. The aim of the article is to provide readers with some guidelines as to when these datasets should be used and when they should be avoided; it finds that those interested in subnational analyses of conflict should be wary of ACLED's data because of uneven quality-control issues which can result in biased findings if left unchecked by the researcher. The article concludes that those interested in non-violent events such as troop movements have only ACLED to choose from, since UCDP has not coded such data, but again warns researchers to be wary of the quality of the data. Finally, while the creation of these datasets is a positive development, some caveats are raised in relation to both datasets about the reliance on media sources.

This authored monograph presents the use of dynamic spatiotemporal modeling tools for the identification of complex underlying processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous escalation, and volatility. The authors use ideas from statistics, signal processing, and ecology, and provide a predictive framework which is able to assimilate data and give confidence estimates on the predictions. The book also demonstrates the methods on the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary, the results showing that this approach allows deeper insights into conflict dynamics and allows a strikingly statistically accurate forward prediction of armed opposition group activity in 2010, based solely on data from preceding years. The target audience primarily comprises researchers and practitioners in the involved fields but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students.

"In this book, Yuko Suda examines the Safe Harbor debate, the Passenger Name Record (PNR) dispute, and the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Transactions (SWIFT) affair to understand the transfer of personal data from the European Union (EU) to the United States. She argues that the Safe Harbor, PNR, and SWIFT agreements were made to mitigate the potentially negative effects that may arise from the beyond-the-border reach of EU data protection rules or US counterterrorism regulation. A close examination of these high-profile cases would reveal how beyond-the-border reach of one jurisdiction's regulation might affect another jurisdiction's policy and what responses the affected jurisdiction possibly makes to manage the effects of such extraterritorial regulation.The Politics of Data Transfer adds another dimension to the study of transatlantic data conflicts by assuming that the cases exemplify not only the politics of data privacy but also the politics of extraterritorial regulation. A welcomed and timely collection uncovering the evolution and the prospect of the politics of data privacy in the digitalized and interconnected world."--Provided by publisher.

This article compares the treatment of Colombia in large cross-country conflict datasets with the information of a unique dataset on the Colombian conflict (CERAC). The big datasets display a strong tendency to record fewer killings than does CERAC. Moreover, when the big datasets provide annual time series on the conflict, these figures look either erratic or flat compared to CERAC's and often move in different directions. The article also examines the criteria of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) for dataset inclusion and finds them considerably more restrictive than CERAC's. The primary differences are that UCDP generally excludes attacks purely on civilians and any activity of illegal right-wing paramilitary groups. It is argued here that these omissions impoverish our perception of many civil wars. A calculated modified series based on UCDP methodology and CERAC raw information closes 56% of the gap between the two approaches. The remainder appears to derive mainly from a number of small events in CERAC but not UCDP, reflecting the limits of English-language press coverage of Colombia, upon which UCDP data is based. The gap with other big datasets is also closed. The dynamics of the lower-bound UCDP curve clearly resemble the modified CERAC curve, so UCDP does reasonably well on its own terms. A brief Northern Ireland case study is consistent with our Colombia conclusions. The article concludes with a recommendation for conflict researchers to prioritize the construction of more micro-datasets that will facilitate detailed studies of conflict intensity and its dynamics.

Acknowledgements -- Introduction -- The politics of data privacy -- Politics of extraterritorial regulation -- The EU data protection directive -- From safe harbor to privacy shield -- The PNR dispute -- The EU PNR directive -- The SWIFT affair -- Data privacy and free trade agreements -- Conclusion -- References -- Index

The problem of aggregating WEIS events data, coded as discrete events, into a continuous time series representing conflict or cooperation between two nations is discussed. Past literature on the subject reveals continuing confusion and controversy regarding such a conflict-cooperation scale. A new scale based on a small panel of international relations faculty is presented. Replication of several past studies of great power reciprocity, using the new scale, shows a slight increase in the statistical significance of relationships.

As students of politics and political science, we should and we do care about the events which lead to war, instability, and international tension as well as about events which lead to equitable interdependence, integration, peace, improvement of quality of life, reduction of colonialism, and so on. Because we care about these matters, we try to advance procedures and theories about systematizing our observations and improving our skills of analysis. Recent developments in international relations have tended to (a) emphasize the exploration of more specific problems and testing of hypotheses with quantified data and (b) deemphasized the search for general theories of internation behavior. This trend appears to be undergoing slight modification for many reasons. Events contain useful information which permit a student of foreign policy to use events singularly or in the aggregate to study foreign policy outputs and inputs. A student of international systems uses events singularly or in the aggregate to study patterns, structures, and transformation. This research calls for continuously developing models and operational procedures which analyze these phenomena with faster and better numerical precision. The Conflict and Peace Data Bank Project is the contribution of myself, my students, and my colleagues to this effort.

Poor-quality data about conflict events can hinder humanitarian responses and bias academic research. There is increasing recognition of the role that new information technologies can play in producing more reliable data faster. We piloted a novel data-gathering system in the Democratic Republic of Congo in which villagers in a set of randomly selected communities report on events in real time via short message service. We first describe the data and assess its reliability. We then examine the usefulness of such "crowdseeded" data in two ways. First, we implement a downstream experiment on aid and conflict and find evidence that aid can lead to fewer conflict events. Second, we examine conflict diffusion in Eastern Congo and find evidence that key dynamics operate at very micro levels. Both applications highlight the benefit of collecting conflict data via cell phones in real time.