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In this paper, we extend recent work exploring the prevalence of outlying committees in American state legislatures. Using an expanded sample of 45 states and measures of legislator preferences generated by a single, federated group, we find that most legislative committees are representative of the parent chambers from which their members are selected. Furthermore, we test multivariate models designed to account for theoretically relevant patterns in variations in outlier percentages among control and noncontrol committees. The fact that our models are such poor predictors of nonrepresentative committees speaks to the idiosyncratic nature of the relatively small percentage of outlying committees in the states. This conclusion, in turn, provides further support for the proposition that representative committees are simply rational.

This study extends the analysis of parliamentary free voting by examining a non-British example: Canadian MPs' voting behavior on Bill C-43, which attempted to establish a federal abortion law. As in most previous studies, we find that partisanship was by far the best predictor of voting behavior. Unlike previous research, however, we analyze free votes at every stage of the legislative process and find different voting dynamics at different stages. In general, Canadian MPs felt at greater liberty to vote as their consciences dictated when their votes mattered least. On the key roll calls leading to final disposition, however, when voting was most visible and outcomes most important, Canadian MPs re-coalesced around their parties.

ObjectiveIn this article, we explore the deaths in office of U.S. senators between 1919 and 2015, examining both historical trends at the aggregate level and at the individual level searching for partisan and other patterns in mortality rates.MethodsWe employ Cox proportional hazard models to examine the effects of factors such as age, tenure in office, electoral factors, and legislative engagement, as well as partisanship and ideology.ResultsNotably, we find no significant partisan or ideological effects. When we examine the parties separately, we find that other institutional factors (tenure in office, vote share, bill sponsorship) matter for Democrats, while expectation of who would replace them in office matters for Republicans.ConclusionOur findings contribute to previous work on legislative turnover in Congress by taking the first step to analyze deaths among U.S. senators from almost the entire history of the elected Senate.

This fall, the Democrats face a challenging US Senate map, defending 25 seats to the GOP's nine. For some on the left, one ray of hope has been the retirement of four Republican Senators, leading to open seat contests. In new research, Hanna K. Brant, L. Marvin Overby, and Theodore J. Masthay suggest that this optimism may be misplaced. Studying nearly a century of Senate elections, and accounting for a number of other factors, they find that Republicans have a roughly ten percent advantage over Democrats in winning open Senate seat races.

This past weekend saw the death of John McCain, who had held his Arizona US Senate seat for more than three decades. Hanna K. Brant, L. Marvin Overby, and Theodore J. Masthay write that since 1919, more than 135 Senators have died whilst in office. They write that, though the frequency of these deaths has fallen dramatically since the 1960s, the passing of senior party members like John McCain can often have important implications for how power is wielded in the Senate.

In the United States, public support can play a crucial role in the decisions to initiate and terminate military action. Some scholars argue that the public holds 'prudent' opinions regarding the use of the military--supporting efforts to stop aggression but not to engage in nation building. We argue that what seems like a 'prudent' opinion may be driven more by the White House's rhetoric. Experimental tests show that the rhetorical complexity has a more powerful impact on the respondent's support for military action than the actual policy goal, although this result is substantially tempered by political awareness. Adapted from the source document.

Objective. In this article, we explore whether African‐American state legislators have been able to translate election to office into positions of power, particularly as committee chairs.Methods. We cull data from all state legislative chambers that contained a black legislator during two time periods, 1989 and 1999. In doing so, we compare the observed numbers of African‐American chairs with their expected numbers. We also examine each state's percentage of black chairs using multiple regression to determine what factors—political, partisan, institutional, cultural—influence the selection of black committee chairs.Results. Overall, our descriptive analysis reveals that blacks are underrepresented as chairs. They are not, however, significantly underrepresented as chairs of the most important committees and they are generally overrepresented as chairs of committees with jurisdiction over social services. Our multivariate analyses show that the prevalence of black chairs is driven primarily by factors related to partisan control of legislative chambers and size of the black legislative delegation, and that these dynamics have changed over time.Conclusion. Although the increase in African‐American state legislators has led to an increase in substantive leadership roles, these positions have been limited almost entirely to chambers where the black caucus is a critical element of a Democratic majority.

ObjectiveIn this article, we explore whether African-American state legislators have been able to translate election to office into positions of power, particularly as committee chairs. MethodsWe cull data from all state legislative chambers that contained a black legislator during two time periods, 1989 and 1999. In doing so, we compare the observed numbers of African-American chairs with their expected numbers. We also examine each state's percentage of black chairs using multiple regression to determine what factors-political, partisan, institutional, cultural-influence the selection of black committee chairs. ResultsOverall, our descriptive analysis reveals that blacks are underrepresented as chairs. They are not, however, significantly underrepresented as chairs of the most important committees and they are generally overrepresented as chairs of committees with jurisdiction over social services. Our multivariate analyses show that the prevalence of black chairs is driven primarily by factors related to partisan control of legislative chambers and size of the black legislative delegation, and that these dynamics have changed over time. ConclusionAlthough the increase in African-American state legislators has led to an increase in substantive leadership roles, these positions have been limited almost entirely to chambers where the black caucus is a critical element of a Democratic majority. Adapted from the source document.

This research examines two referenda in the Deep South, both of which can be categorized as antiblack. Specifically, we analyze a 2001 Mississippi flag referendum (in which the electorate rejected a new flag and retained the old state flag containing a Confederate insignia) and a 2004 referendum in Alabama (in which citizens voted to retain unenforceable constitutional language requiring separate educational facilities for black and white students, and a poll tax on voting). Using state election returns and census data, we employ weighted least squares regression to analyze voting patterns. The results reveal that across both states, white voters displayed significantly greater "antiblack" voting behavior in those areas with larger black populations and more urbanized environments. Our findings pose a direct challenge to both those who insist that the "racial threat" perceived by whites is diminishing and those who hold that urbanization will ultimately be corrosive of racist attitudes and behavior.Esta investigación examina dos referendos en el sur de Estados Unidos, cada uno de ellos puede ser categorizado como anti afroamericano. Específicamente, se analizó el referendo en 2001 a la bandera de Mississippi (en el que el electorado rechazó una nueva bandera y decidieron conservar la bandera anterior que contenía una insignia del ejército confederado) y un referendo en 2004 en Alabama (en el que los ciudadanos votaron para conservar un lenguaje constitucional imposible de aplicar que requería separar las instalaciones educativas para blancos y afroamericanos, y un impuesto al voto).Usando los resultados de las elecciones estatales e información estadística, empleamos un modelo de regresión de cuadrados mínimos comunes para analizar patrones electorales. Los resultados revelan que a través de ambos estados los votantes blancos mostraron un comportamiento electoral "anti afroamericano" significativamente mayor en áreas con una gran población afroamericana y entornos más urbanizados. Nuestros hallazgos plantean un desafío directo a quienes insisten que la "amenaza racial" percibida por la población blanca está disminuyendo, y aquellos que afirman que la urbanización eliminará actitudes y comportamiento racista.

The increasing public attention paid to Supreme Court nominations has elevated the salience of Senate confirmation battles, raising interesting questions about the impact of constituency preferences on senators' voting behavior. In this article, we explore this relationship using a logistical regression model to examine the impacts of African-American constituency size and the proximity of reelection on the roll call behavior of senators on the Clarence Thomas confirmation vote. Our analyses indicate that these factors were both statistically and substantively significant in the Thomas case. We conclude by discussing the theoretical and practical implications of such findings.