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We present a theoretical framework for policy making based on the "impossible trinity" or the "trilemma" hypothesis. A simple optimization model shows that placing more weight in terms of preference for each of the three open macroeconomic policies - exchange rate stability, financial market openness, and monetary policy independence - contributes to a higher level of achievement in that particular policy. We then develop the first empirical framework in the literature to investigate the joint determination of the triad open macroeconomic policies based on the trilemma hypothesis. Specifically, we estimate the three policy indexes under the trilemma constraint that they must add up to a constant. By applying the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimation method and employing other robustness checks, we demonstrate that simple economic and structural fundamentals determine the trilemma policy combinations. Last, we examine how deviations from the "optimal" trilemma policy combinations evolve around the time of a financial crisis. Policy combinations seem to violate the trilemma constraint when a currency, banking, or debt crisis breaks out. These findings suggest that deviations from the trilemma hypothesis would create policy stress, which would have to manifest itself in a crisis unless policy makers adjust the policy combination in a way consistent with the trilemma constraint.

Studied are the factors that determine local policy outputs in Israel's centrist system. The variables used in comparing the effects on local expenditure policy are: political & SE variables & the role of tax revenue & central (government) aid. The political variable, party competition, was found to have little effect on local service expenditures. SE variables, eg, industrialization, urbanization, number of welfare recipients, & residents' average wealth, age, & educational level, were found to be related more to local service expenditures than to local/state services. However, these variables did have a strong influence on local service policy through tax revenue, which was found to be an intervening variable rather than a policy output. Government aid was paramount in determining the local policy in two ways: by increasing local capacity & by influencing the methods & options of distribution. The data, which were analyzed in a two-step model using causal ordering through path analysis, suggest that individuals can operate as important brokers for communities that want to obtain government aid. 4 Tables, 1 Figure, 1 Diagram. T. Keister.

Denmark is a small and extremely vulnerable state. It is situated at the intersection of the bipolar global system and the multipolar West European subsystem. Danish security policy has been formulated along the following three principal lines: (1) Cooperation, i.e. practical cooperative relations between states (furthering mutual understanding, confidence, and peace); (2) detente and negotiation; and (3) defense, i.e. the cooperation between the national Danish defense and the Western defense. This article discusses the effects on Denmark of general international trends in the 1970s and 1980s. Three forms of security policy are dealt with: (1) the official declaratory policy; (2) the military policy and the military apparatus; and (3) planning and analyzing activities. Although Danish security policy is characterized by continuity, certain recent changes are identified. Another basic feature of Danish security policy is the remarkably stable political consensus ever since the approval of the Atlantic Treaty in 1949. Recent years, however, have witnessed increased politicization of security matters.

Denmark is a small and extremely vulnerable state. It is situated at the intersection of the bipolar global system and the multipolar West European subsystem. Danish security policy has been formulated along the following three principal lines: (1) Cooperation, i.e. practical cooperative relations between states (furthering mutual understanding, confidence, and peace); (2) detente and negotiation; and (3) defense, i.e. the cooperation between the national Danish defense and the Western defense. This article discusses the effects on Denmark of general international trends in the 1970s and 1980s. Three forms of security policy are dealt with: (1) the official declaratory policy; (2) the military policy and the military apparatus; and (3) planning and analyzing activities. Although Danish security policy is characterized by continuity, certain recent changes are identified. Another basic feature of Danish security policy is the remarkably stable political consensus ever since the approval of the Atlantic Treaty in 1949. Recent years, however, have witnessed increased politicization of security matters.

Since the beginning of the Cold War, Sweden's security policy has been based on the principle of non-alignment between great power blocs in order to remain neutral in case of war. This basic principle is of major importance to Sweden's behaviour on the three major arenas of her foreign policy — global, European, and Nordic. In this paper the development of Sweden's present foreign policy is outlined, and the significance of a viable national defence as a corollary to non-alignment and neutrality is analysed together with the problems arising out of the inherent tension between an isolated security policy and an outward-oriented, extremely open economic policy.

Since the beginning of the Cold War, Sweden's security policy has been based on the principle of non-alignment between great power blocs in order to remain neutral in case of war. This basic principle is of major importance to Sweden's behaviour on the three major arenas of her foreign policy — global, European, and Nordic. In this paper the development of Sweden's present foreign policy is outlined, and the signifi cance of a viable national defence as a corollary to non-alignment and neutrality is analysed together with the problems arising out of the inherent tension between an isolated security policy and an outward-oriented, extremely open economic policy.

While many developed nations have recently liberalized their laws on abortion, considerable variation remains. This variation appears to be linked to political/ideological differences across nations. Data from 1972 for 29 nations indicate that % of Catholic population, presence of a socialist party in the government, type of regime, & nature of nonelectoral policy-making institutions are linked, at least in the short run, to abortion policy variations. Economic variables do not dominate political variables in statistical analysis of policy variation, but they do appear to shape policy directions in the long run. 1 Table. Modified HA.

Categories of research on the determinants of public policy are suggested & some representative works are cited to indicate the state of present knowledge. The categories include types of political systems, types of explanatory models, types of public policies, & cross-sectional & time series research. In each category representative works are reviewed. Several developments in political science suggest areas of future research: (1) the formal analysis of politics as a dynamic process, (2) the study of interest group & bureaucracies in relation to policy determinants, & (3) the development of better indicators of policy. Plans for a symposium on the policy determinants field are outlined. G. Simpson.

IS FINLAND'S PURSUIT OF A NORTHERN EUROPEAN NUCLEAR-FREE ZONE MORE THAN THE PRICE WHICH THE FINNS HAVE TO PAY FOR FREEDOM FROM DIRECT SOVIET MILITARY & POLITICAL PRESSURES?