Suchergebnisse

The legal environment for local government in Florida is beginning to change when it comes to sea-level rise (sometimes referred to as SLR). Innovations in institutional structure and governance strategies are underway in the State as well. This paper reviews three recent developments, which relate primarily to comprehensive planning in the State, and explores their implications for Florida's local governments, among others. It begins with the State's decision, in 2011 legislation, to give local governments a new, optional tool – referred to as "Adaptation Action Areas" (AAAs) – to address sea-level rise and related issues in local comprehensive plans. The paper then turns to a second piece of Florida legislation, this one enacted in 2015, which also identifies sea-level rise as a concern but this time mandates that local governments begin to address it and other causes of flood-related risks through their comprehensive planning process. Finally, the paper discusses a third initiative, launched in 2009 by four Southeast Florida counties – Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, and Monroe – to foster local government and regional coordination on sea-level rise and other climate change issues. This review of these three developments provides a relatively in-depth starting point for understanding key features of the emerging legal and institutional landscape in Florida for addressing sea-level rise, especially with respect to comprehensive planning.

Shoreline habitats and infrastructure are currently being affected by sea level rise (SLR) and impacts will only worsen as global temperatures continue to rise. Decisions made by governments and individuals to adapt to SLR will have profound consequences for coastal ecosystems, transportation systems, and urban settings.Federal guidance for adaptation relies on predictive models to guide planning. This includes planning for the recovery of endangered species in the face of SLR, which is mandated by the federal Endangered Species Act. FHWA and other federal organizations have recognized that new monitoring methods will be needed in order to collect new kinds of data and at a finer scale and wider extent. California among other states, provides extensive step-by-step guidance on how to plan for SLR, including the use of predictive models, and identifies the need for monitoring as well. Despite the recognized need for monitoring methods, no detailed guidance is given at the state level in California or federal level for how to do this.Measurement of sea level has historically been achieved by using tide gauges and global satellite altimetry. There is no consistent method or system for measuring and recording shoreline change over large areas and at fine resolution other than infrequent and expensive LiDAR overflights that do not capture seasonal fluctuations. This policy brief summarizes findings from the project which utilizes a method to monitor shoreline and infrastructure changes in response to SLR using a network of time-lapse cameras.View the NCST Project Webpage

AbstractThis article illustrates the development and functioning of a dynamic spatial model that simulates the effects of gradual sea‐level rise on coastal areas. Emphasis is given to identifying the dynamics of coastal systems and translating them into a spatially explicit dynamic simulation model. The model is designed to be flexible enough to serve as a base model for interdisciplinary research on sea‐level rise and coastal dynamics. An application is provided for a coastal area on Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

Abstract. In this paper, a methodology to analyse observed sea level rise (SLR) in the German Bight, the shallow south-eastern part of the North Sea, is presented. The paper focuses on the description of the methods used to generate and analyse mean sea level (MSL) time series. Parametric fitting approaches as well as non-parametric data adaptive filters, such as Singular System Analysis (SSA) are applied. For padding non-stationary sea level time series, an advanced approach named Monte-Carlo autoregressive padding (MCAP) is introduced. This approach allows the specification of uncertainties of the behaviour of smoothed time series near the boundaries. As an example, the paper includes the results from analysing the sea level records of the Cuxhaven tide gauge and the Heligoland tide gauge, both located in the south-eastern North Sea. For comparison, the results from analysing a worldwide sea level reconstruction are also presented. The results for the North Sea point to a weak negative acceleration of SLR since 1844 with a strong positive acceleration at the end of the 19th century, to a period of almost no SLR around the 1970s with subsequent positive acceleration and to high recent rates.

As a result of climate change, many lands are under risk due to the rising sea levels (RSL). Studies show that the mean sea level will likely rise by 0.16 to 0.63 metres before 2050, and 0.2 to 2.5 metres by 2100. Lower-lying islands are more endangered from RSL. One of such islands is Failaka, a small island in Kuwait lying at the entrance of Kuwait Bay, which is located on the north-western side of the Arabian Gulf (Also called the Persian Gulf). Most of Failaka Island is lower than three meters. The Governmental plans are to develop and populate the island. SLR should be considered in such planning. This study focuses particularly on detecting the areas of Failaka Island which are under high threat from the SLR. To detect these areas, spatial analysis of the Digital elevation model (DEM) are used. DEM is estimated for three SLR scenarios (1, 2 and 3 metres). It is expected that 31% of the island will be under sea level height for the SLR of 1 m; 54% for the SLR of 2 metres; and 87% for the SLR of 3 m. Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) is estimated as well. The CVI shows that the eastern coast is the most susceptible with regard to the SLR. The model was validated through using ground elevation points (n = 40), and a positive correlation was found with of 0.8019. Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote sensing (RS) are confirmed to be effective tools for estimating spatial influence of the SLR.

Local projections of future sea-level change are important for understanding climate change risks and informing coastal management decisions. Reliable and relevant coastal risk information is especially important in South Asia, where large populations live in low-lying areas and are at risk from coastal inundation. We present a new set of local sea-level projections for selected tide gauge locations in South Asia. The projections are used to explore the drivers of spatial variations in sea-level change for South Asia over the 21st century under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Global sea level rise for 2081-2100 is projected to be 0.39 m (0.26-0.58 m) and 0.65 m (0.47 m-0.93m) for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively. Local sea-level rise projections for the same period vary spatially over the South Asia region with local sea-level rise in excess of projected global sea level rise in equatorial Indian Ocean but less than projected global sea level rise for northern Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Local sea level rise for 2081-2100 is projected to be 0.44 m (0.29-0.67 m) and 0.72 m (0.51-1.06 m) at Gan II (Maldives) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, whereas for Diamond Harbour (West Bengal) the corresponding changes are 0.32 m (0.19-0.51 m) and 0.57 m (0.39-0.85m). We find that the sterodynamic contribution is generally the leading driver of change at any single location, with future groundwater extraction over the sub-continent landmass the main driver of spatial variations in sea-level across the region. The new localised projections quantify and enhance understanding of future sea-level rise in South Asia, with the potential to feed into decisions for coastal planning by local communities, government, and industry.

Abstract. We explore past trends and future projections of mean sea level (MSL) at the Finnish coast, in the northeastern Baltic Sea, during the period 1901–2100. We decompose the relative MSL change into three components: regional sea level rise (SLR), postglacial land uplift, and the effect of changes in wind climate. Past trends of regional SLR can be calculated after subtracting the other two components from the MSL trends observed by tide gauges, as the land uplift rates obtained from the semi-empirical model NKG2016LU are independent of tide gauge observations. According to the results, local absolute SLR trends are close to global mean rates. To construct future projections, we combine an ensemble of global SLR projections in a probabilistic framework. In addition, we use climate model results to estimate future changes in wind climate and their effect on MSL in the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea. This yields probability distributions of MSL change for three scenarios representing different future emission pathways. Spatial variations in the MSL projections result primarily from different local land uplift rates: under the medium-emission scenario RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5, for example, the projected MSL change (5 % to 95 % range) over the 21st century varies from −28 (−54 to 24) cm in the Bothnian Bay to 31 (5 to 83) cm in the eastern Gulf of Finland.

Sea‐level rise sits at the frontier of usable climate climate change research, because it involves natural and human systems with long lags, irreversible losses, and deep uncertainty. For example, many of the measures to adapt to sea‐level rise involve infrastructure and land‐use decisions, which can have multigenerational lifetimes and will further influence responses in both natural and human systems. Thus, sea‐level science has increasingly grappled with the implications of (1) deep uncertainty in future climate system projections, particularly of human emissions and ice sheet dynamics; (2) the overlay of slow trends and high‐frequency variability (e.g., tides and storms) that give rise to many of the most relevant impacts; (3) the effects of changing sea level on the physical exposure and vulnerability of ecological and socioeconomic systems; and (4) the challenges of engaging stakeholder communities with the scientific process in a way that genuinely increases the utility of the science for adaptation decision making. Much fundamental climate system research remains to be done, but many of the most critical issues sit at the intersection of natural sciences, social sciences, engineering, decision science, and political economy. Addressing these issues demands a better understanding of the coupled interactions of mean and extreme sea levels, coastal geomorphology, economics, and migration; decision‐first approaches that identify and focus research upon those scientific uncertainties most relevant to concrete adaptation choices; and a political economy that allows usable science to become used science.