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Treasury's forecasting framework has evolved over the past 21 years from the outlook for a single financial year to the outlook for the Australian economy 40 years ahead for intergenerational analysis. A constant through this evolution has been the sharp distinction between the methodologies used for near and longer term forecasts. The economic estimates underlying Australian Government fiscal projections divide the forecast horizon into two distinct periods: the near term forecast period which covers the first two years beyond the current financial year; and the longer term projection period which includes the last two years of the forward estimates, and up to 36 more years for intergenerational analysis. The economic estimates over the forecast period are based on a range of short run forecasting methodologies, while those over the projection period are based on medium to long run rules. Treasury routinely assesses medium to long run projection rules in light of new data, improved modelling techniques and structural changes to the economy. The measured cyclical weakness of recent years calls for an enhancement to the existing trend growth rate rules, which recognises the need for an adjustment period over which the economy transitions from a cyclical high or low to its potential level of output. Working towards that end, this paper details changes to the projection methodology that overcome the cyclical limitations of the existing framework. Applying these methodological changes to the economic estimates in the 2014 15 Budget leads to a slight improvement in the Underlying Cash Balance of $0.9 billion (0.05 per cent of GDP) in 2017 18 and $3.4 billion (0.12 per cent of GDP) in 2024 25.

Seeking to achieve higher levels of efficiency and effectiveness in budget management and the outcomes and impacts of public policy, the Government has made efforts to gradually modernize public managing looking for results. Thus it has been possible to implement a medium-term budget framework, which incorporates a set of elements that allow a useful form to achieve a better allocation and evaluation of budgetary resources and governance tool. This article aims to highlight the progress, weaknesses that arise in the process of implementing a medium-term budget results-oriented, while recommendations on actions to be implemented in order to achieve better performance in public administration. ; En la búsqueda de alcanzar mayores niveles de eficiencia y eficacia en la gestión presupuestaria y en los resultados e impactos de las políticas públicas, el Gobierno ha hecho esfuerzos para modernizar gradualmente la gestión pública orientada a resultados. Por ello se ha logrado implementar un Marco presupuestario de Mediano Plazo, el cual incorpora un conjunto de elementos que permiten conformar una herramienta útil para alcanzar una mejor asignación y evaluación de los recursos presupuestarios y la gestión pública. El presente artículo tiene el propósito de destacar los avances, las debilidades que se presentan en el proceso de implementación de un presupuesto de mediano plazo orientado a resultados, al mismo tiempo se hacen recomendaciones sobre acciones que deben ser implementadas a fin de alcanzar un mejor desempeño en la gestión pública.

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