Suchergebnisse

The many and varied crises in the world economy since 2007 seem to have different origins and diverse manifestations. This paper contends that there is however a structural shift beneath the global economy that is now reaching a critical mass, and that accounts for many of these crises, despite the diversity of manifestations. This shift is occasioned by two kinds of technological changes--the familiar labor-saving and what is here called "labor-linking." The paper argues that these changes (1) create a short-term window of opportunity for developing and emerging economies, but (2) in the long run constitute a major, multilateral policy challenge for all. To meet this challenge, we have to think outside the box and conceive of innovative policies. The paper briefly speculates on what those policies might be.

AbstractThis paper starts with a discussion of how the world recession as an external shock influenced the already vulnerable South East European (SEE) economies. All countries except Albania and Kosovo experienced a recession as well as a termination of the foreign debt based heating-up that generated high growth rates after 2000. The paper provides an overview of states' policy responses, with individual countries surveyed in the appendix. We argue that, with the exception of Albania, all SEE economies started with a fiscal expansion, which coincided with elections in which the existing governments were not re-elected. This was followed by public finance crises, fiscal consolidation and more active monetary policy which averted a financial crisis, with only three of these economies turning to the IMF for help. Nevertheless, the cumulative effect was an extended trough. The paper then discusses the recession's impact on growth in terms of three growth projections derived from historical experience and two ad hoc benchmarks. We examine the consequences of returning to a lower post recession growth trajectory and calculate the time required to return to secular growth and achieve chosen benchmarks. The conclusion for both is that convergence time varies from less than a decade to no convergence before 2040, with the exception of Albania.

1. At the crossroads of long-term development -- 2. The development of a dual economy -- 3. The lewis turning point -- 4. The demographic dividend -- 5. Growing old before getting rich -- 6. The risk of a middle income trap -- 7. The new engine of economic growth -- 8. Macroeconomic policies in transition -- 9. Human capital accumulation -- 10. Reducing income inequality -- 11. Labor market institutions and social protections -- 12. Reaping China's reform dividends.

This article presents the results of a survey of the small and medium enterprise sector in Papua New Guinea. This sector is key to providing income opportunities for the country's large rural population. The interaction between local, inter-provincial and international markets is considered. Suggestions are provided for government action to overcome the constraints to the development of the sector.