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Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 100 genetic variants contributing to BMI, a measure of body size, or waist-to-hip ratio (adjusted for BMI, WHRadjBMI), a measure of body shape. Body size and shape change as people grow older and these changes differ substantially between men and women. To systematically screen for age-and/or sex-specific effects of genetic variants on BMI and WHRadjBMI, we performed meta-analyses of 114 studies (up to 320,485 individuals of European descent) with genome-wide chip and/or Metabochip data by the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) Consortium. Each study tested the association of up to similar to 2.8M SNPs with BMI and WHRadjBMI in four strata (men 50y, women 50y) and summary statistics were combined in stratum-specific meta-analyses. We then screened for variants that showed age-specific effects (G x AGE), sex-specific effects (G x SEX) or age-specific effects that differed between men and women (G x AGE x SEX). For BMI, we identified 15 loci (11 previously established for main effects, four novel) that showed significant (FDR= 50y). No sex-dependent effects were identified for BMI. For WHRadjBMI, we identified 44 loci (27 previously established for main effects, 17 novel) with sex-specific effects, of which 28 showed larger effects in women than in men, five showed larger effects in men than in women, and 11 showed opposite effects between sexes. No age-dependent effects were identified for WHRadjBMI. This is the first genome-wide interaction meta-analysis to report convincing evidence of age-dependent genetic effects on BMI. In addition, we confirm the sex-specificity of genetic effects on WHRadjBMI. These results may providefurther insights into the biology that underlies weight change with age or the sexually dimorphism of body shape. ; Funding: Funding for this study was provided by the Aarne Koskelo Foundation; the Aase and Ejner Danielsens Foundation; the Academy of Finland (40758, 41071, 77299, 102318, 104781, 117787, 117844, 118590, 120315, 121584, 123885, 124243, 124282, 126925, 129269, 129293, 129378, 130326, 134309, 134791, 136895, 139635, 211497, 263836, 263924, 1114194, 24300796); the Agency for Health Care Policy Research (HS06516); the Agency for Science, Technology and Research of Singapore (A*STAR); the Ahokas Foundation; the ALF/LUA research grant in Gothenburg; the ALK-Abello A/S (Horsholm, Denmark), Timber Merchant Vilhelm Bangs Foundation, MEKOS Laboratories Denmark; the Althingi (the Icelandic Parliament); the American Heart Association (AHA; 13POST16500011); the ANR ("Agence Nationale de la 359 Recherche"); the Ark (NHMRC Enabling Facility); the Arthritis Research UK (19542, 18030); the AstraZeneca; the Augustinus Foundation; the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC; 241944, 389875, 389891, 389892, 389938, 442915, 442981, 496739, 496688, 552485, 613672, 613601 and 1011506); the Australian Research Council (ARC; DP0770096 and DP1093502); the Becket Foundation; the bi-national BMBF/ANR funded project CARDomics (01KU0908A); the Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRINL; 184.021.007, CP 32); the Biocentrum Helsinki; the Boehringer Ingelheim Foundation; the British Heart Foundation (RG/10/12/28456, SP/04/ 002); the Canadian Institutes for Health Reseaerch (FRCN-CCT-83028); the Cancer Research UK (C490/A10124, C490/A10119); the Center for Medical Systems Biology (CMSB; NWO Genomics); the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Association of Schools of Public Health (1734, S043, S3486); the Centre of Excellence Baden-Wurttemberg Metabolic Disorders; the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government; the Clinical Research Facility at Guys & St Thomas NHS Foundation Trust; the Contrat de Projets Etat-Region (CPER); the Croatian Science Council (Grant no. 8875); the CVON (GENIUS); the Danish Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation; the Danish Centre for Health Technology Assessment, Novo Nordisk Inc.; the Danish Council for Independent Research (DFF 1333-00124); the Danish Diabetes Association; Danish Heart Foundation; the Danish Medical Research Council; the Danish Ministry of Internal Affairs and Health; the Danish National Research Foundation; the Danish Pharmaceutical Association; Danish Pharmacists Fund; the Danish Research Council; the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft; the Diabetes Hilfs-und Forschungsfonds Deutschland (DHFD); the Dr. Robert Pfleger-Stiftung; the Dresden University of Technology Funding Grant, Med Drive; the Dutch Brain Foundation; the Dutch Diabetes Research Foundation; the Dutch Economic Structure Enhancing Fund (FES); the Dutch Kidney Foundation; the Dutch Ministry for Health, Welfare and Sports; the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs; the Dutch Ministry of Education, Culture and Science; the Egmont Foundation; the Else Kraner-Fresenius Stiftung (2012_A147, P48/08//A11/08); the Emil Aaltonen Foundation; the Erasmus Medical Center and Erasmus University, Rotterdam; the Estonian Ministry of Science and Education (SF0180142s08); the European Commission (223004, 2004310, DGXII, FP6-EUROSPAN, FP6-EXGENESIS, FP6-LSHG-CT2006-018947, FP6-LSHG-CT-2006-01947, FP6-LSHM- CT-2004-503485, FP6-LSHM-CT-2006037593, FP6-LSHM-CT-2007-037273, FP7-201379, FP7-201668, FP7-279143, FP7-305739, FP7313010, FP7-ENGAGE-HEALTH-F4-2007-201413, FP7-EurHEALTHAgeing-277849, FP7-HEALTH-F42007-201550, HEALTH-2011.2.4.2-2-EU-MASCARA, HEALTH-F2-2008-201865-GEFOS, HEALTH-F7305507 HOMAGE, LSHM-CT-2006-037593, QLG1CT-2001-01252, QLG1-CT-2002-00896, QLG2-CT2002-01254); the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the Wissenschaftsoffensive TMO; the European Regional Development Fund to the Centre of Excellence in Genomics (EXCEGEN; 3.2.0304.11-0312); the European Research Council (ERC; 2011-StG-280559-SEPI, 2011-294713-EPLORE, 230374); the European Science Foundation (ESF; EU/QLRT-2001-01254); the EuroSTRESS project FP-006; the Finlands Slottery Machine Association; the Finnish Centre for Pensions (ETK); the Finnish Cultural Foundation; the Finnish Diabetes Association; the Finnish Diabetes Research Foundation; the Finnish Foundation for Cardiovascular Research; the Finnish Foundation for Pediatric Research; the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation (40058/07); the Finnish Medical Society; the Finnish Ministry of Education and Culture (627; 2004-2011); the Finnish Ministry of Health and Social Affairs (5254); the Finnish National Public Health Institute (current National Institute for Health and Welfare); the Finnish Special Governmental Subsidy for Health Sciences; the Finska Lakaresallskapet, Signe and Ane Gyllenberg Foundation; the Flemish League against Cancer, ITEA2 (project Care4Me); the Folkhalsan Research Foundation; the Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (FWO) Vlaanderen; the Foundation for Life and Health in Finland; the Foundation for Strategic Research (SSF) and the Stockholm County Council (560283); the G. Ph. Verhagen Foundation; the Gene-diet Interactions in Obesity' project (GENDINOB); the Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN); the GENEVA Coordinating Center (U01 HG 004446); the GenomEUtwin (EU/QLRT2001-01254; QLG2-CT-2002-01254); the German Bundesministerium fuer Forschung und Technology (01 AK 803 A-H, 01 IG 07015 G); the German Diabetes Association; the German Ministry of Cultural Affairs; the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; 03IS2061A, 03ZIK012, 01ZZ9603, 01ZZ0103, 01ZZ0403); the German National Genome Research Network (NGFN-2 and NGFN-plus); the German Research Council (SFB1052 "Obesity mechanisms"); the Great Wine Estates of the Margaret River region of Western Australia; the Greek General Secretary of Research and Technology research grant (PENED 2003); the Gyllenberg Foundation; the Health Care Centers in Vasa, Narpes and Korsholm; the Health Fund of the Danish Health Insurance Societies; the Helmholtz Zentrum Munchen-German Research Center for Environmental Health; the Helsinki University Central Hospital special government funds (EVO #TYH7215, #TKK2012005, #TYH2012209); the Hjartavernd (the Icelandic Heart Association); the Ib Henriksen Foundation; the Illinois Department of Public Health, and the Translational Genomics Research Institute; the INTERREG IV Oberrhein Program (Project A28); the Interuniversity Cardiology Institute of the Netherlands (ICIN; 09.001); the Italian Ministry of Health "targeted project" (ICS110.1/RF97.71); the Italian National Centre of Research InterOmics PB05_ SP3; the John D and Catherine T MacArthur Foundation Research Networks on Successful Midlife Development and Socio-economic Status and Health; the Johns Hopkins University Center for Inherited Disease Research (CIDR); the Joint grant from Siemens Healthcare, Erlangen, Germany and the Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania; the Juho Vainio Foundation; the Juselius Foundation (Helsinki, Finland); the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation International (JDRF); the KfH Stiftung Praventivmedizin e. V.; the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation; the Kuopio University Hospital; the Leenaards Foundation; the Leiden University Medical Center; the Liv och Halsa; the Local Government Pensions Institution (KEVA); the Lokaal Gezondheids Overleg (LOGO) Leuven and Hageland; the LudwigMaximilians- Universitat, as part of LMUinnovativ; the Lundberg Foundation; the March of Dimes Birth Defects Foundation; the Medical Research Council (G0601966; G0700931; G0000934; G0500539; G0600705; G1002319; G0701863; PrevMetSyn/SALVE; MC_ U106179471; MC_ UU_ 12019/1); the MRC centre for Causal Analyses in Translational Epidemiology (MRC CAiTE); the MRC Centre for Obesity and Related Metabolic Diseases; the MRC Human Genetics Unit; the Medical Research Council of Canada; the Mid-Atlantic Nutrition and Obesity Research Center (P30 DK072488); the Ministry of the Flemish Community, Brussels, Belgium (G. 0881.13 and G. 0880. 13); the MIUR-CNR Italian Flagship Project; the Montreal Heart Institute Foundation; the Munich Center of Health Sciences (MC Health); the Municipal Health Care Center and Hospital in Jakobstad; the Narpes Health Care Foundation; the National Alliance for Research on Schizophrenia and Depression (NARSAD); the National Cancer Institute (CA047988); the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (UL1TR000124); the National Center for Research Resources (U54RR020278); the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI, 1RL1MH083268-01, 5R01HL087679-02, HHSN268200800007C, HHSN268201200036C, HL043851, HL080467, HL087647, HL36310, HL45670, N01HC25195, N01HC55015, N01HC55016, N01HC55018, N01HC55019, N01HC55020, N01HC55021, N01HC55022, N01HC55222, N01HC85079, N01HC85080, N01HC85081, N01HC85082, N01HC85083, N01HC85086, N02HL64278, R01HL086694, R01HL087641, R01HL087652, R01HL087676, R01HL59367, R01HL103612, R01HL105756, R01HL120393, U01HL080295); the National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI, U01HG004402); the National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL); the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR, RP-PG-0407-10371); the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID); the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD); the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Disease (NIDDKDRC, 1R01DK8925601, DK063491, R01DK089256, P30 DK072488); the National Institute of Food and Agriculture (2007-35205-17883); the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS); the National Institute on Aging (NIA; 263-MA-410953, 263-MD-821336, 263-MD-9164, AG023629, AG13196, NO1AG12109, P30AG10161, R01AG15819, R01AG17917, R01AG023629, R01AG30146); the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (5-P60-AR30701, 5-P60-AR49465-03); the National Institutes of Health (NIH; 1R01DK8925601, 1RC2MH089951, 1RC2MH089995, 1Z01HG000024, 2T32 HL 00705536, 5R01DK075681, 5R01MH63706: 02, AA014041, AA07535, AA10248, AA13320, AA13321, AA13326, AG028555, AG08724, AG04563, AG10175, AG08861, DA12854, DK046200, DK091718, F32AR059469, HG002651, HHSN268200625226C, HHSN268200782096C, HL084729, MH081802, N01AG12100, N01HG65403, R01AG011101, R01AG030146, R01D0042157-01A, R01DK062370, R01DK072193, R01DK093757, R01DK075787, R01DK075787, R01HL71981, R01MH59565, R01MH59566, R01MH59571, R01MH59586, R01MH59587, R01MH59588, R01MH60870, R01MH60879, R01MH61675, R01MH67257, R01MH81800, R01NS45012, U01066134, U01CA098233, U01DK062418, U01GM074518, U01HG004423, U01HG004436, U01HG004438, U01HL072515-06, U01HL105198, U01HL84756, U01MH79469, U01MH79470, U01NS069208-01, UL1RR025005); the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust; the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical research Centre; the Netherlands Heart Foundation (2001 D 032); the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO; Geestkracht program grant 10-000-1002; 050-060-810; 100-001-004; 175.010.2003.005; 175.010.2005.011; 175.010.2007. 006; 261-98-710; 40-0056-98-9032; 400-05-717; 452-04-314; 452-06-004; 480-01-006; 480-04-004; 480-05-003; 480-07-001; 481-08-013; 60-60600-97-118; 904-61-090; 904-61-193; 911-03012; 985-10-002; Addiction-31160008; GB-MW 94038- 011; SPI 56-464-14192); the Netherlands Organization for the Health Research and Development (ZonMw; 91111025); the Nordic Center of Excellence in Disease Genetics; the Nordic Centre of Excellence on Systems biology in controlled dietary interventions and cohort studies, SYSDIET (070014); the Northern Netherlands Collaboration of Provinces (SNN); the Novo Nordisk Foundation; the Office of Research and Development, Medical Research Service, and the Baltimore Geriatrics Research, Education, and Clinical Center of the Department of Veterans Affairs; the Ollqvist Foundation; the Paavo Nurmi Foundation; the Pahlssons Foundation; the Paivikki and Sakari Sohlberg Foundation; the Perklen Foundation; the Republic of Croatia Ministry of Science, Education and Sports research (108-1080315-0302); the Research Centre for Prevention and Health, the Capital Region of Denmark; the Research Foundation of Copenhagen County; the Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly (014-93-015; RIDE2); the Reynold's Foundation; the Rotterdam Oncologic Thoracic Study Group, Erasmus Trust Fund, Foundation against Cancer; the Royal Swedish Academy of Science; the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (NWO-RFBR 047.017.043); the Rutgers University Cell and DNA Repository cooperative agreement (NIMH U24 MH068457-06); the Samfundet Folkhalsan; the Sigrid Juselius Foundation; the Social Insurance Institution of Finland, Kuopio, Tampere and Turku University Hospital Medical Funds (9M048, 9N035); the Social Ministry of the Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania; the Societe Francophone du 358 Diabste (SFD); the South Tyrolean Sparkasse Foundation; the Stichting Nationale Computerfaciliteiten (National Computing Facilities Foundation, NCF); the Strategic Cardiovascular Programme of Karolinska Institutet and the Stockholm County Council (560183); the Susan G. Komen Breast Cancer Foundation; the Swedish Cancer Society; the Swedish Cultural Foundation in Finland; the Swedish Diabetes Association; the Swedish Diabetes Foundation (grant no. 2013-024); the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research (SSF; ICA08-0047); the Swedish HeartLung Foundation (20120197); the Swedish Medical Research Council (K2007-66X-20270-01-3, 20121397); the Swedish Ministry for Higher Education; the Swedish Research Council (8691, M-2005-1112, 2009-2298); the Swedish Society for Medical Research; the Swiss National Science Foundation (31003A-143914, 3200B0105993, 3200B0-118308, 33CSCO-122661, 33CS30-139468, 33CS30148401); SystemsX. ch (51RTP0_151019); the Tampere Tuberculosis Foundation; the TEKES (70103/06, 40058/07); the The Paul Michael Donovan Charitable Foundation; the Torsten and Ragnar Sderberg Foundation; the Umea Medical Research Foundation; the United Kingdom NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre; the Universities and Research of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano, South Tyrol; the University Hospital of Regensburg (ReForM A, ReForM C); the University Hospital Oulu, Biocenter, University of Oulu, Finland (75617); the University Medical Center Groningen; the University of Groningen; the University of Maryland General Clinical Research Center (M01RR16500, AG000219); the University of Tartu (SP1GVARENG); the University of Tromso, Norwegian Research Council (185764); the Vasterbottens Intervention Programme; the Velux Foundation; the VU University Institute for Health and Care Research (EMGO+) and Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam (NCA); the Wellcome Trust (064890, 068545/Z/02, 076113/B/04/Z, 077016/Z/05/Z, 079895, 084723/Z/08/Z, 086596/Z/ 08/Z, 088869/B/09/Z, 089062, 090532, 098017, 098051, 098381); the Western Australian DNA Bank (NHMRC Enabling Facility); the Yrjo Jahnsson Foundation (56358); and the Zorg Onderzoek Nederland-Medische Wetenschappen, KWF Kankerbestrijding, Stichting Centraal Fonds Reserves van voormalig Vrijwillige Ziekenfondsverzekeringen. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. More details of acknowledgements can be found in S2 Text.

BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. ; Funding: We thank the countless individuals who have contributed to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2015 in various capacities. We specifically thank Jeffrey Eaton and John Stover. HW and CJLM received funding for this study from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; the National Institute of Mental Health, National Institutes of Health (NIH; R01MH110163); and the National Institute on Aging, NIH (P30AG047845). LJAR acknowledges the support of Qatar National Research Fund (NPRP 04-924-3-251) who provided the main funding for generating the data provided to the GBD-Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation effort. BPAQ acknowledges institutional support from PRONABEC (National Program of Scholarship and Educational Loan), provided by the Peruvian government. DB is supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant number OPP1068048). JDN was supported in his contribution to this work by a Fellowship from Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, Portugal (SFRH/BPD/92934/2013). KD is supported by a Wellcome Trust Fellowship in Public Health and Tropical Medicine (grant number 099876). TF received financial support from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF; project number P300P3-154634). AG acknowledges funding from Sistema Nacional de Investigadores de Panama-SNI. PJ is supported by Wellcome Trust-DBT India Alliance Clinical and Public Health Intermediate Fellowship. MK receives research support from the Academy of Finland, the Swedish Research Council, Alzheimerfonden, Alzheimer's Research & Prevention Foundation, Center for Innovative Medicine (CIMED) at Karolinska Institutet South Campus, AXA Research Fund, Wallenberg Clinical Scholars Award from the Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Foundation, and the Sheika Salama Bint Hamdan Al Nahyan Foundation. AK's work was supported by the Miguel Servet contract financed by the CP13/00150 and PI15/00862 projects, integrated into the National R&D&I and funded by the ISCIII (General Branch Evaluation and Promotion of Health Research), and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF-FEDER). SML is funded by a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinician Scientist Fellowship (grant number NIHR/CS/010/014). HJL reports grants from the NIHR, EU Innovative Medicines Initiative, Centre for Strategic & International Studies, and WHO. WM is Program analyst, Population and Development, in the Peru Country Office of the United Nations Population Fund, which does not necessarily endorse this study. For UOM, funding from the German National Cohort Consortium (O1ER1511D) is gratefully acknowledged. KR reports grants from NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Career Development Fellowship, and Oxford Martin School during the conduct of the study. GR acknowledges that work related to this paper has been done on the behalf of the GBD Genitourinary Disease Expert Group supported by the International Society of Nephrology (ISN). ISS reports grants from FAPESP (Brazilian public agency). RSS receives institutional support from Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales, UDCA, Bogota Colombia. SS receives postdoctoral funding from the Fonds de la recherche en sante du Quebec (FRSQ), including its renewal. RTS was supported in part by grant number PROMETEOII/2015/021 from Generalitat Valenciana and the national grant PI14/00894 from ISCIII-FEDER. PY acknowledges support from Strategic Public Policy Research (HKU7003-SPPR-12).

Background: timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods: for countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. Findings: global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5–2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6–40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7–1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1–1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation: scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3.3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3.1-3.4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2.6 million per year (range 2.5-2.8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38.8 million (95% UI 37.6-40.4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1.8 million deaths (95% UI 1.7-1.9 million) in 2005, to 1.2 million deaths (1.1-1.3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods: A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. Results: The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90·2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72·3 per cent. Globally, 81·7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37·7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25·4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusion: A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography–year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4–61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5–72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7–17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5–70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6–5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8–18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6–16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9–14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1–44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7–51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8–34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3–37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000–183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000–532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. ; We thank the countless individuals who have contributed to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 in various capacities. The data reported here have been supplied by the United States Renal Data System (USRDS). Data for this research was provided by MEASURE Evaluation, funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Collection of these data was made possible by USAID under the terms of cooperative agreement GPO-A-00-08-000_D3-00. Views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of USAID, the US Government, or MEASURE Evaluation. Parts of this material are based on data and information provided by the Canadian institute for Health Information. However, the analyses, conclusions, opinions and statements expressed herein are those of the author and not those of the Canadian Institute for Health information. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with licence number SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law–2000. The researchers are solely responsible for the conclusions and inferences drawn upon available data. The following individuals acknowledge various forms of institutional support. Simon I Hay is funded by a Senior Research Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (#095066), and grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1119467, OPP1093011, OPP1106023 and OPP1132415). Panniyammakal Jeemon is supported by a Clinical and Public Health Intermediate Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust-DBT India Alliance (2015–20). Luciano A Sposato is partly supported by the Edward and Alma Saraydar Neurosciences Fund, London Health Sciences Foundation, London, ON, Canada. George A Mensah notes that the views expressed in this Article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, or the United States Department of Health and Human Services. Boris Bikbov acknowledges that work related to this paper has been done on the behalf of the GBD Genitourinary Disease Expert Group supported by the International Society of Nephrology (ISN). Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos acknowledges that her team in Brazil received funding from Ministry of Health (process number 25000192049/2014-14). Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez receives institutional support from Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales, UDCA, Bogotá, Colombia. Ulrich O Mueller and Andrea Werdecker gratefully acknowledge funding by the German National Cohort BMBF (grant number OIER 1301/22). Peter James was supported by the National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health (Award K99CA201542). Brett M Kissela would like to acknowledge NIH/NINDS R-01 30678. Louisa Degenhardt is supported by an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Principal Research fellowship. Daisy M X Abreu received institutional support from the Brazilian Ministry of Health (Proc number 25000192049/2014-14). Jennifer H MacLachlan receives funding support from the Australian Government Department of Health and Royal Melbourne Hospital Research Funding Program. Miriam Levi acknowledges institutional support received from CeRIMP, Regional Centre for Occupational Diseases and Injuries, Tuscany Region, Florence, Italy. Tea Lallukka reports funding from The Academy of Finland (grant 287488). No individuals acknowledged received additional compensation for their efforts. ; Peer-reviewed ; Publisher Version