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I.1 Motivation Exchange rates are a key issue in international economics and politics. While the determinants of exchange rates have been extensively studied in previous works, this dissertation contributes to the literature by deriving exchange rate expectations from stock market (ADR) data and analyzing their determinants. This exercise is done for three cases where one has to resort to exchange rate expectations since the national exchange rate is either manipulated by the central bank (the first paper in Chapter II), fixed in pegged exchange rate regimes (the second paper in Chapter III), or not existent as the considered country is part of a currency union and therefore has no national currency (the third paper in Chapter IV). The first paper presented in Chapter II analyzes exchange rate expectations for the case of China in the period 1998-2009 in order to test standard exchange rate theories. American officials repeatedly accused China of systematically undervaluing its currency against the U.S. dollar , which produces political tensions between both countries. A recent climax in this dispute was reached on September 28, 2010, when the House of Representatives passed the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act, which would allow the imposition of import duties for countries with undervalued currencies, namely China. Although this bill did not pass the Senate, Chinese officials clearly opposed the bill arguing against significant undervaluation of the yuan and in favor of political opportunism of U.S. officials. As the assessments of a fair exchange rate significantly differ among officials of both countries, the Chinese-American exchange rate dispute continues. Measuring the development of market determined exchange rate expectations may help to find a compromise in this international political dispute and knowing the determinants of these expectations may help to identify macroeconomic policies necessary to influence future exchange rates. The second paper presented in Chapter III investigates the development of exchange rate expectations and their determinants for the currency crisis episodes in Argentina (2001-2002), Malaysia (1998-1999), and Venezuela (1994-1996 and 2003-2007). Large devaluations of Southeast Asian and Latin American currencies were to be observed during the currency crises in the 1990's and at the beginning of the last decade. Due to an appreciation of foreign currency denominated debt, capital withdrawals, and bank runs, for example, currency crises typically lead to significant output losses in the affected economies (Hutchison and Noy, 2002). Avoiding currency crisis outbreaks has therefore become one of the major policy goals in many developing countries, which may explain the rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves aimed to fend off speculative attacks in these countries. The costs of this currency crisis prevention policy are however often overseen. Since foreign exchange reserves are typically invested in U.S. Treasuries, they yield a relatively low return compared to the high cost of domestic capital in these countries. Moreover, foreign exchange reserves may lose in value as the domestic currency appreciates against the U.S. dollar (Rodrik, 2006). An alternative way to avoid the outbreak of currency crises may be to regularly adjust the official exchange rate (typically managed by the domestic central bank) to levels in line with market expectations. Knowing market-based exchange rate expectations and their determinants may therefore be a cheaper way to avoid currency crises than holding excess amounts of foreign exchange reserves. The third paper presented in Chapter IV uses daily ADR data to analyze the determinants of the risk of withdrawals from the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the five vulnerable member countries Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain for the period 2007-2009. The subprime lending crisis has triggered significant financial turmoil in the EMU. Banking systems were destabilized and the governments of Greece, Ireland, and Portugal had to be bailed out. Reasserting national authority over monetary policy may help domestic policymakers to address the problems caused by banking and sovereign debt crises or an overvalued euro at national discretion. While the abandonment of fixed exchange rate regimes has so far been analyzed for countries with national currencies, the financial vulnerabilities in the EMU offer a new case to study the possibility of withdrawals from a monetary union. Although a country's membership in the EMU is typically considered irreversible, many authors agree that sovereign states can choose to leave the EMU (Cohen, 1993; Scott, 1998; Buiter, 1999; Eichengreen, 2007). The new Treaty of Lisbon now includes a provision outlining voluntary withdrawal from the Union, which may cause the members to re-think the pros and cons of remaining in the EMU. Although the European Central Bank (ECB) has implemented measures meant to support the banking sectors and governments in the EMU, autonomous national central banks would probably pursue more expansionary monetary policies. By analyzing the determinants of exchange rate expectations in the monetary union one may therefore analyze the drivers of the risk of withdrawal from the EMU. I.2 Deriving exchange rate expectations from prices of American Depositary Receipts Measuring movements in exchange rate expectations is a relatively easy task for currencies in which a liquid and free forward exchange market exists. For the cases considered in this dissertation, however, the forward exchange market either produces bad forecasts or does not even exist. For the case of China, the yuan/U.S. dollar forward exchange rate is most likely managed by the Chinese central bank in the course of its foreign exchange market intervention policies, which hampers its ability to provide good signals for the future spot market exchange rate (see, for example, Wang, 2010). For the considered member countries of the EMU, no national currencies exist and consequently forward exchange rates cannot be used. For the case of the currency crisis episodes studied in this dissertation, one could use regression-based forecasting models that employ data on macroeconomic variables in order to produce currency crisis signals (see, among others, Eichengreen et al., 1995; Frankel and Rose, 1996; Kaminsky et al., 1998; Kaminsky and Reinhart, 1999; Karmann et al., 2002). The drawback of these approaches is the nature of macroeconomic data used, which enables one to create only monthly or quarterly crisis signals based on backward-looking data. In this dissertation I use stock market data to derive exchange rate expectations, which has several advantages compared to existing approaches. First of all, the prices of the considered stocks are most probably not manipulated by central bank interventions since these stocks are traded in the United States, which enables the derivation of exchange rate expectations formed under free market conditions (also for China). The used stock market data is available for the considered EMU member countries, which facilitates the analysis of the risk of withdrawals from the EMU. Moreover, stock market data is forward-looking and available on a daily basis, which enables the derivation of more accurate and up-to-date currency crisis signals for the considered crisis episodes. In order to derive exchange rate expectations I use data on a particular type of stock called American Depositary Receipt (ADR). An ADR is a financial instrument for foreign companies to list their shares at stock exchanges in the Unites States. An ADR represents the ownership of a specific number of underlying shares of a company in the home market on which the ADR is written. While the underlying stock is denominated in the currency and traded at the stock exchange of the home market, the ADR is denominated in U.S. dollars and traded at a U.S. stock exchange. Since both types of stocks of the same company generate identical cash flows and incorporate equivalent rights and dividend claims, cross-border arbitrage implies that the ADR and its underlying stock have the same price when adjusted for the current exchange rate. When capital controls or ownership restrictions are implemented, cross-border arbitrage is not possible and the law of one price is not binding. In such an environment, information efficiency suggests that the relative prices of ADRs and their underlying stocks – which only differ with respect to the currency they are denominated in – will signal exchange rate expectations of stock market investors. Using data on relative prices (or returns) of ADRs and their underlying stocks and the current exchange rate I can calculate measures for exchange rate expectations of stock market investors. Although the papers presented in this dissertation differ with respect to the considered companies, countries, and time periods, each paper uses the same kind of data and a similar methodology to derive exchange rate expectations – relative prices or returns of ADRs and their corresponding underlying stocks. In each paper I use a panel regression framework in order to analyze the determinants of exchange rate expectations. Each of the included papers focuses on a distinct facet of exchange rate expectations. The first paper focuses on standard exchange rate theories such as the relative purchasing power parity or the uncovered interest rate parity in order to analyze the factors that drive exchange rate expectations in general. The second paper studies the determinants of currency crisis expectations. The third paper analyzes the determinants of the risk of withdrawals from the EMU as expected by ADR market investors. I.3 Contribution to the literature This dissertation adds to two strands of the literature. First, it contributes to a literature that studies the determinants of exchange rates, currency crisis outbreaks, and risk of withdrawal from the EMU. The first paper (Chapter II) contributes to a vast literature on the determinants of exchange rates. An incomplete list of exchange rate determinants analyzed in the literature includes: labor productivity (Chinn, 2000; Cheung et al., 2007); inflation rates (Lothian and Taylor, 1996; Taylor et al., 2001); interest rates (Froot and Thaler, 1990; Chinn, 2006); overvaluation of the domestic currency (Glick and Rose, 1999; Corsetti et al., 2000); or export growth (Williamson, 1994; Isard, 2007). I study the impact of these macroeconomic fundamentals on ADR investors' exchange rate expectations for China. China makes a good case to study standard exchange rate theories since the Chinese central bank manages the official yuan/U.S. dollar exchange rate, which therefore reacts much less to changes in macroeconomic fundamentals than is suggested by theory. Using ADR market data, I can test exchange rate theories for the Chinese peg/managed float regime under free market conditions. The second paper (Chapter III) contributes to a literature, which analyzes the determinants of currency crisis outbreaks (Eichengreen et al., 1995; Kaminsky and Reinhart, 1999; Karmann et al., 2002). Existing papers employ low-frequent and backward-looking macroeconomic data to forecast currency crises. This dissertation uses ADR market data to derive more accurate and up-to-date currency crisis signals on a daily basis. Moreover, the determinants of currency crisis expectations, such as banking or sovereign debt crisis risk, can be studied using daily market-based risk proxies. The third paper (Chapter IV) contributes to a literature on the sustainability of the EMU. Several papers discuss the possibility of withdrawal from the EMU (Cohen, 1993; Scott, 1998; Buiter, 1999; Eichengreen, 2007). I present empirical evidence that daily ADR market data reflects the risk that vulnerable member countries may leave the EMU and analyzes which determinants drive this withdrawal risk perceived by ADR investors. Second, this dissertation contributes to the literature on the pricing of ADRs. A common finding in the literature is that the outbreak of a currency crisis negatively affects the returns of U.S. dollar-denominated ADRs as the devaluation of the local currency depresses the dollar value of the underlying stock (see, for example, Bailey et al., 2000; Kim et al., 2000; Bin et al., 2004). Several papers find that the introduction of capital controls (typically meant to prevent a currency crisis outbreak) can lead to a permanent violation of the law of one price between ADRs and their underlying stocks since cross-border arbitrage cannot take place (Melvin, 2003; Levy Yeyati et al., 2004, 2009; Auguste et al., 2006). Arquette et al. (2008) and Burdekin and Redfern (2009) find that the price spreads of Chinese cross-listed stocks are significantly driven by market-traded forward exchange rates. This dissertation builds on these findings and uses the relative prices (or returns) of ADRs and their underlying stocks to derive exchange rate expectations. I present empirical evidence that ADR investors' exchange rate expectations are driven by theory-based determinants of exchange rates, currency crisis outbreaks, or the risk of withdrawal from the EMU. This analysis therefore provides new insights into the price (return) determinants of ADRs. I.4 Main findings and policy implications The findings of this dissertation may broaden the understanding of exchanger rate expectations. The results of the first paper (Chapter II) suggest that stock market investors form their exchange rate expectations in accordance with standard exchange rate theories. Based on a monthly panel data set comprised of 22 ADR/underlying stock pairs and 52 H-share/underlying stock pairs from December 1998 to February 2009 I find that stock market investors expect more yuan appreciation against the U.S. dollar: if the yuan's overvaluation decreases (the incentive of competitive devaluation); if the inflation differential vis-à-vis the United States falls (relative purchasing power parity); if the productivity growth in China accelerates relative to the United States (the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect); if the Chinese interest rate differential vis-à-vis the United States decreases (uncovered interest rate parity); when Chinese domestic credit relative to GDP decreases (lower risk of a twin banking and currency crisis); or, if Chinese sovereign bond yields fall (lower risk of a twin sovereign debt and currency crisis), ceteris paribus. These findings suggest that the theoretical links between macroeconomic variables and exchange rates in most cases also apply to exchange rate expectations. In this way, the results support the validity of many exchange rate theories and substantiate the rationality of stock market investors' expectations. This approach (based on stock prices formed under free market conditions) provides an opportunity to test exchange rate theories in managed floating regimes, where the official exchange rate is manipulated by the central bank and does therefore not necessarily respond to changes in macroeconomic fundamentals. Moreover, I use a rolling regressions forecasting framework in order to evaluate the quality of exchange rate expectations. I find that exchange rate expectations drawn from the ADR and H-share market have a better ability to predict changes in the yuan/U.S. dollar exchange rate than the random walk or forward exchange rates, at least at forecast horizons longer than one year. The People's Bank of China may take advantage of ADR and H-share based exchange rate expectations in order to determine possible misalignments of the yuan/U.S. dollar exchange rate. In this way, the Chinese central bank may improve the timing and intensity of foreign exchange market interventions meant to manipulate the yuan/U.S. dollar exchange rate. The second paper (Chapter III) focuses on the derivation and determination of currency crisis signals formed by ADR market investors. Using daily data on 17 ADR/underlying stock pairs for the capital control episodes in Argentina (2001-2002), Malaysia (1998-1999), and Venezuela (1994-1996 and 2003-2007) we find that ADR investors anticipate currency crises or realignments well before they actually occur. Policymakers could use ADR investors' up-to-date assessment of the peg's sustainability in order to identify currency crisis risk earlier and to take the necessary steps to realign an (unsustainable) peg rate before a crisis breaks out. In this way, they could prevent the outbreaks of damaging currency crises without holding excess amounts of costly foreign exchange reserves. Using panel regressions we find that ADR investors anticipate a higher currency crisis risk when export commodity prices fall, the currencies of trading partners depreciate, sovereign bonds yield spreads rise, and interest rate spreads increase. These findings suggest that ADR investors' currency crisis expectations are based on currency crisis theories even on a daily basis underlining the validity of these theories. The third paper (Chapter IV) studies a particular form of currency crisis risk: the risk that vulnerable member countries could leave the EMU. I use a multifactor pricing model to test whether the financial vulnerability measures assumed to reflect the incentives of national governments to withdraw from the EMU (banking crisis risk, sovereign debt crisis risk, and overvaluation of the euro) are priced in ADR returns. Using daily data on 22 ADR/underlying stock pairs of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain in the period January 2007 to March 2009 I find that ADR investors perceive a higher risk of withdrawal (priced in ADR returns) when the risk of banking and sovereign debt crisis and the overvaluation of the euro increase. Policymakers could use ADR market data in order to assess the stability of the EMU. Higher correlations between ADR returns and currency crisis risk factors would suggest a higher risk of withdrawals from the EMU. In such a case, financial vulnerabilities may be addressed within the EMU in order to preserve the integrity of the eurozone. However, time will show how long the policymakers in the EMU will continue with the implementation of even more anti-crisis measures. Growing controversies on the ECB's sovereign bond purchases and the bailouts for Greece, Ireland and Portugal cast doubt on the sustainability of the EMU in its current form.

From the introduction: Ongoing globalization leads to the metamorphosis of social and economic structures and changes the scope of national governmental and non-governmental institutions. Not at least, it changes the aspect of national mentality. The creation of the European Union in 1957 is only one example for the fusion of economic and political domains. In fact, financial and capital markets liberalize, the number of global player rise, and the establishment of international non-governmental organizations increased from 1956 to 1997 by 1,600 % from 985 to 15,965. On the whole, the opportunities for business´ to take influence on the global level are higher and probably more necessary than ever before in history. Economic interrelations and dependencies, international scarcity of non-renewable energy resources and the global climate disaster lead to the necessity of introducing international institutions that act not only in national interest, but serve for the global stabilization of the world economy and its sustainability. A new aspect or logic consequence of globalization arises: Global Governance (in the following abbreviated as GG). GG is one major concomitant phenomenon in the ideology in the disparity in national interests of sovereign states. This difference in the interests of individual items compared to the interests of the entire society exists as long as human beings. Literature calls it the 'moral hazard phenomenon'. There might be common, as well as divergent interests on an efficient solution of various problems, for example in the areas of shelter for refugees and asylum seeker, the problem arising from weapons of mass destruction and the regulations of CO2 emissions. With ongoing globalization there arises a complex multidimensional competition framework. Not only global commercial companies, but also national entities start to compete in terms of production factors, fiscal and political environment and legal frameworks with each another. Figure 1 illustrates the global competition framework by showing up the interrelation among country A and country B. The countries are illustrated including first, their official political entity (government) and secondly, to the Trans-National Companies (in the following abbreviated with TNCs) operating within the country. The third party illustrated is 'the employment'. National government, TNCs and the employment of civil society are interrelated with each another within one country in two directions. Firstly, the TNCs affect the employment and therefore as a result, the government. The higher the action of TNCs within the country, the higher is the employment rate of the civil society (the lower the unemployment). The lower the unemployment rate, the more satisfied the civil society is, and therefore the more powerful the government becomes (because of higher chances to be re-elected). Secondly, the government has impact on the benefits and competitive advantage of TNCs. The better the education policy, the more valuable becomes the human capital. The better the human capital, the more efficient and thus the higher the productivity of TNCs becomes. On a whole, national government can create benefit for TNCs and the other way around. Figure 1 also illustrates the competitive relationship among country A and country B. Both countries compete in terms of providing attractiveness to the TNCs. Attractiveness can be reached by the creation of valuable factors (such as skilled labour et al.). However, this skilled labour also needs to be attracted. As the model introduces a second country, skilled labour can easily move to a place with better factors for the society (better living conditions, better security system, better employment chances, better environmental care, and much more). Though, governments do not only compete for TNCs, but in addition to that for civil society and as a result, finally for voters and power. To sum up, TNCs compete with each other in terms of production. Governments compete with each other in terms of factors. Both, TNCs and the national government, depend from each another and can therefore form an alliance in order to gain in competitive advantage and Global Power (abbreviated in the following as GP). From the aim driven point of view (as explained further in section 1.3.2), GG aims to face and to deal with global challenges in order to balance the markets, to maximize overall welfare and aspire an equal distribution of resources and wealth all over the world. At the same time, GG can be used as a strategic measure and a tool for regulating markets and gaining in competitive advantage and GP. This thesis is going to deal with GG as business strategy based on the neo-realistic approach. The increased presence of TNCs in local economies as a strategy to ensure market control has been labelled 'glocalization'. Research Question: At least after WW II, global society started to realize the ongoing trend for economic trade-off, liberalization of markets and the principle of the invisible hand; not only on a national stage, but on the global layer. National boarders melt, since the action of trade, the economic power, now shifts from the national level to a global degree. International acting companies gain in power and influence with, for instance, direct investments, rising turnover, increased cash flows, and not at least with their bargaining power (in the following abbreviated with BP). The increase in BP is often linked to (global) political activities. Global player, such as TNCs, serve often as a tie between several nations and economies. Though, there are still national governments, and national interests that are not to bring in line with the interests of the global society as a whole. There sometimes might be also dissensions among governments and the TNCs operating in the same arena. The crucial factor then is the BP of the actor. It is not always the case, that government and TNC are equal in having BP. Often there arises an asymmetric dependency, which causes a drop of BP for one of the parties. That disparity and the management of different parties' interests in general, is what Global Governance is all about. During the last 50 years, companies used their BP in order to implement national lobbying as an instrument for gaining in Global Power (in the following abbreviated as GP). Now, as national levels are detached from global platforms and by the GG framework, there arises one important question: Is Global Governance a useful strategy tool for the business sector? In most literature, Global Governance is defined to be an aim driven, goal oriented approach in order to solve problems resulting by the globalization process. But there is only little research in order to find an explanation of how exactly GG is organized. The first essential question to answer now is: What are the factors that influence GG? The second question is: How do these factors influence GG? Third question is: Is there a relation between GG and GP? Last question: Can GG be used as a business strategy in order to increase GP? If yes, how? Research Methods: The thesis´ objective is it to figure out the relationship of involvement into Global Governance and the business´ Global Power. It is pre-assumed that an increase in Global Power leads to an increase in a business market dominating power. Thereby it will be found out, what particular can be done to gain in Global Governance involvement. Several strategies are imaginable. This thesis will work out a new strategy approach by combining 1) Porter's 5 Forces model with 2) Hirschman's model of 'voice and exit" strategies. Further the framework of Global Governance will be transferred to the traditional 5 forces model in order to detect the location of Trans-National Companies in their competitive environment. Further an additional sixth force is going to be introduced. After analyzing the competitive environment of Trans-National Companies and the impact of governmental institutions on the industry, several strategies for gaining in Global Power will be developed, using the new hybrid strategy approach as a tool. In the section of definitions (1.3), the thesis and their basic components are going to be analyzed and explained. Within the theory framework (2.1-2.4), the thesis will be set up theoretically. The case study of Gazprom as Trans-National Company will transfer the theoretical model to a practical example. Thus, Russian influence on the world market (for energy) rises, and the situation concerned Europe directly, the example chosen is very relevant and of actuality. In the end the findings will be evaluated. The unit of analysis used in the theory framework is based on the global level. That is rationale because Global Actors in general are going to form the basis of the framework. However, the topic itself implies choosing the global level as unit of analysis. The case study will concentrate on a specific firm. Here it will be switched to the firma level as unit of analysis. That makes sense, because there are only little volumes of industries that do globalize. On the other hand on the global level there is already everything globalized. Only the smallest unit of analysis fits here, because on the firm level there can be made a decision if to go global or not. Further the unit of the other player is scaled in the same small way.Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: 1.Introduction7 1.1Research Question10 1.2Research Methods11 1.3Terms and Definitions13 1.3.1Globalization13 1.3.2Global Governance15 1.3.3Power20 1.3.4Strategy27 2.Theory Framework30 2.1Global Actors in Global Governance's Competitive Environment30 2.1.1The Role of Civil Society in Global Governance30 2.1.2The Role of International Organizations in Global Governance32 2.1.3The Role of the State in Global Governance33 2.1.4The Role of TNC in the Global Governance36 2.2Porters 5 Forces Industry Analysis of TNCs37 2.2.1Rivalry37 2.2.2Threat of Substitutes41 2.2.3Threat of New Entrants42 2.2.4Bargaining Power of Buyer and Supplier43 2.3The Government and International Organizations as Sixth Force45 2.4Elaboration of TNCs´ BP Rising Strategies52 2.4.1Self Regulatory Institutions (SRIs)54 2.4.2Privatization of the Public Sector54 2.4.3Quasi-Regulation55 2.4.4Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs)55 2.5Conclusion of Theory Framework57 3.Case Study: Gazprom61 3.1History Background of Russians Policy61 3.2Economy Background63 3.3Strategy framework64 3.3.1Gazprom and Russia64 3.3.2Gazprom and NGO´s65 3.3.3Gazprom and Europe66 4.Conclusion69 Bibliography70 Appendix72Textprobe:Textprobe: Chapter 2.2, Porters 5 Forces Industry Analysis of TNCs: Figure 11 sums up the transformation of GAs to the Porter's model. It illustrates the factors that influence the competitive environment in GG in terms of Global Power of TNCs. In the following it will be provided an analysis of the relevant forces and the competitive environment of TNCs on the GG layer in terms of GP. That analysis serves the purpose to detect the best fitting strategy for TNCs in order to increase the industry's BP. 2.2.1, Rivalry: Strong competition among rival firms decreases profits and makes the industry less attractive. However, competition is not always perfect and firms are not only price takers, but strive for a competitive advantage over their rivals, too. The intensity of rivalry is influenced by a set industry characteristics. The traditional aspects are the volume of competitors, the market growth, the aspect of the entrance cost and exit costs, the switching costs and the level of product differentiation. Rivalry will be increased by a larger number of firms, because more firms must compete for the same purpose. Rivalry even intensifies, if the firms have similar market volume and impact. When looking at the TNCs as firms, who compete for GP, there is a large number of such. In comparison, there are a lot of global player coming from different countries, representing different intentions, but only less alternatives to influence a global decision making process, or a national decision making process, that affects the world globally (demand). In fact, there are in total sum 44,000 TNCs in the world, with 280,000 subsidiaries and an annual turnover of US$ 7,000 billion. Two-thirds of world trade results from TNC production networks. The share of world GDP controlled by TNCs has grown from 17 percent in the mid-60s to 24 percent in 1984 and almost 33 percent in 1995 (UNCTAD). 51 of the world's largest economies are in fact TNCs. Continuous mergers and take-overs have created a situation in which almost every sector of the global economy is controlled by a handful of TNCs. On a whole the total volume of TNCs is rather high; however there is only little Global Power available. Due to that aspect, rivalry is high. If there is a growing market, firms are able to increase revenues simply because of the economic growth itself. A slow market growth causes firms to combat for market share and rivalry grows. Here we are talking about the market of GP in GG. The market size is only hard to measure. However it will be assumed that ongoing globalization is the factor that results in a growth in the market for assessing GP in GG. According to that argument, rivalry will be decreased within the industry of TNCs. When the majority of costs are fixed, the firm must produce near capacity to attain the lowest unit costs. Since the firm must sell a larger quantity of the product in order to benefit from economies of scale, high levels of production lead to a fight for market share and results in increased rivalry. In this case the 'product' TNCs produce is too abstract, to link it anyhow to fix or variable costs. What TNCs 'sell' is not their actual product (e.g. General Motors sells cars), but the influence they have in economy. As a result, it can be said that the more BP a TNC already has, the more influence it has, the lower costs every additional unit added. So the theory of economies of scale can be covered. However, there are no other fixed costs than the fixed costs of running the business anyhow. To sum up, it can be said that the fixed costs in the TNC´s industry are indifferent. However, there can be detected an economies of scale effect. Thus, rivalry in the existing market becomes higher. When a customer can freely switch from one product to another there is a greater struggle to capture customers. Low switching costs increase rivalry. The customer in our case is the national government (or International Organization) as GA who uses the BP of a TNC as product in order to benefit from it in terms of increasing its own GP. Switching costs may arrive when asking which TNC in detail to support. There might be done distinctions from TNCs operation industry (such as energy sector, security sector or media business). This notion leads to the argument of diversification of the product, which will be explained further. In addition here plays the linkage of the TNC an essential role; If the TNC is somehow linked to activities with other GAs. Thought, switching costs in general are assumed to be high, not at least of the lack in trust, experience, information and transparency. Therefore rivalry rises. Low levels of product differentiation leads to higher levels of rivalry. The product itself is defined to be the GB. That influence can be differentiated first in the sense of the actual product offered. Textile producer may have an other channel of influence than companies in the energy sector. It can be detected that most of the TNCs are operating in the industry of petroleum exploiter, processor and distributor (see appendix 1 and 2). What exact relationship there exists is not part of this thesis, however it will be assumed that there must be 'better preferred' industriey. The second and probably related influence measure tool is the 3 dimensions of power approach. Each industry and each TNC concentrates on a different mixture of the power dimensions in providing power. On a whole there is a high level of product differentiation, and therefore a higher level of rivalry. High exit barriers place a high cost on abandoning the product. The firm is forced to compete. High exit barriers cause a firm to remain in an industry, even when the venture is not profitable. A common exit barrier is asset specificity. When a TNC wants to exit the industry, the barriers are low. Far from it! Other competitors or GAs would pay a high price in order to take over the business. That argument leads to a slightly decrease in rivalry. To sum up, rivalry in the TNC industry is relatively high, due to the large number of competitors, scale effects, and high level of product differentiation. There also exists an approach to make rivalry measurable by indicators of industry concentration. One instrument is the Concentration Ratio (further abbreviated as CR). The CR indicates the percent of market share held by the largest (4 - 50) firms within the industry. A high CR means less competition, whereby a low CR indicates a high competitive pressure. The industry is concentrated, when a high volume of market share is held by the (4 - 50) largest firms; then the CR is high. With only a few firms holding a large market share, the competitive landscape is less competitive because it is closer to an oligopoly or to a monopoly. If the industry is characterized by many rivals from whom none of them has a significant market share, we see a low concentration ratio. Fragmented markets are more likely to be highly competitive.

Es inaudito encontrar un sistema de cualquier tipo basado en computadores en el que el humano no interactúe con él. Incluso aunque se trate de una comunicación exclusivamente entre dos computadores, normalmente se incluye una interfaz que permita solucionar el enlace entre máquinas cuando aparece algún problema [Mulligan et al. 1991]. El usuario, como ser humano, necesita información, lo que se considera una de las pocas constantes en nuestro mundo, independientemente de la cultura a la que pertenezca o en el instante de tiempo en el que transcurra su actividad. Esta necesidad se combina con la ocupación del usuario en otras tareas que requieren su atención, de forma que hay al menos dos focos de atención que compiten por el bien más preciado de cualquier interfaz humano-computador: la atención del usuario. La existencia de diferentes escenarios, en las que el usuario espera resultados diferentes y consecuencias distintas ante la existencia de un error controla la aparición de distintos tipos de aplicaciones y dispositivos para soportar las demandas del usuario en condiciones de multitarea. En estos sistemas, conocidos como Sistemas de Notificación, las interfaces están diseñadas como un medio para acceder a información valiosa para el usuario de una forma efectiva y eficiente sin introducir interrupciones no deseadas en la ejecución de la tarea principal. Pueden encontrarse numerosas implementaciones de Sistemas de Notificación en una gran variedad de plataformas. Quizás en los sistemas de sobremesa son más fácilmente identificables: servicios de mensajería instantánea, aplicaciones que muestran el estado de un sistema, servicios de noticias e indicadores de cantidades almacenadas. Otros ejemplos familiares pueden encontrarse en procesos industriales y tecnológicos como la cadena danzante de Weiser como representación del tráfico de una red [Weiser y Brown 1996], los sistemas de información embarcados en vehículos, los sistemas incorporados en los vehículos para proporcionar información de los sistemas, los sistemas que proporcionan información sobre el entorno, los sistemas multi-monitor que indican los excesos de rango de un sistema y las cabinas de los aviones modernos. De otro lado, un sistema se considera crítico cuando un único fallo debido al sistema, al usuario o al modo en el que el usuario realiza las tareas para las que el sistema se diseñó, puede producir daños graves en el sistema, en su entorno o, aún más grave, en los usuarios del sistema. Ejemplos de este tipo de sistemas pueden encontrarse en los aviones, correspondiéndose con sistemas manejados por usuarios muy especializados. Genéricamente hablando, la evaluación de usabilidad incluye un amplio rango de métodos y técnicas usados por los evaluadores para evaluar, cualitativa o cuantitativamente, distintos aspectos relacionados con la usabilidad. Como soporte al diseño, la evaluación debe permitir, en primer lugar, la verificación de las decisiones de diseño y en segundo lugar elegir entre varias alternativas. Aunque se le conceda gran importancia, la evaluación de cualquier sistema está poco implantada como un proceso más en el ciclo de vida de un producto, ya que se suele considerar un proceso costoso, en tiempo y recursos, y que no añade ningún valor al producto. La evaluación de la interfaz humano-computador permite la comparación de distintas alternativas de diseño de sistemas y, en último lugar, determinar qué sistema es mejor. Por tanto, la evaluación debe proporcionar medidas cuantitativas para determinar la usabilidad de una interfaz y comparar dos interfaces distintas de forma objetiva. Aunque los usuarios de computadores están habituados al uso de Sistemas de Notificación, su evaluación está limitada a probar el valor intrínseco de paradigmas aislados de diseño basados en una única implementación. La evaluación de usabilidad de los Sistemas de Notificación está muy poco desarrollada en las interfaces de propósito general y, particularmente, en las interfaces de los sistemas críticos. Las únicas experiencias disponibles están basadas en datos empíricos reducidos en entornos simulados y en el seguimiento de ciertas guías de diseño probadas por la experiencia. Están guías proceden de aplicaciones militares y, aunque pueden ser cuestionadas desde el punto de vista de la ciencias cognitivas, están ampliamente aceptadas en el diseño de interfaces para Sistemas de Notificación críticos. Los diseñadores de estos sistemas pueden, razonablemente, rechazarlas basándose en su experiencia y en su juicio. Si no existe una evaluación cuantitativa basada en modelos cognitivos entonces el evaluador no puede ser capaz de determinar científicamente los errores en la interfaz. De hecho, puede llegarse a la situación sin salida en la que se enfrenten el juicio y el conocimiento del diseñador con los del evaluador. Esta situación puede resolverse con un marco de evaluación que proporcione datos cuantitativos que muestren si una alternativa de diseño es mejor que otra, basado en principios objetivos. El diseño y la evaluación de las interfaces humano-computador han evolucionado mucho más rápidamente que las teorías basadas en la psicología y la ciencia cognitiva y aún existen un gran número de problemas por resolver. Así, el diseño de interfaces ha evolucionado desde los editores de líneas y aplicaciones a medida con interfaces muy reducidas basadas en crípticos comandos de línea hasta las interfaces WIMP (Windows-Icons-Menus-Pointers), los sistemas de recuperación de la información, los agentes inteligentes, los servidores CSCW (Cooperative and Shared Computer Works), los entornos virtuales, la realidad aumentada, los bits tangibles, la computación ubicua, la web y los múltiples tipos de interfaces capaces de hablar y mostrar emociones. Mientras tanto, la evaluación de la usabilidad ha evolucionado basada principalmente en heurísticas y en la evaluación empírica [Nielsen 1993; Dix et al. 2.003]. La evaluación basada en la teoría ha sido considerada de un valor muy limitado [Landauer 1987] debido a su reducido ámbito de aplicación, aplicable únicamente a características propias de una interfaz y con una capacidad muy reducida para ser aplicada en otros diseños del mundo real, alejado de los laboratorios. Aunque se están realizando grandes esfuerzos para desarrollar teorías que cubran un amplio rango de tópicos, la mayor parte de ellas son solamente ajustes para explicar aplicaciones del día a día [Rudisill et al. 1996]. Actualmente la medida de prestaciones no se realiza frente a requisitos específicos previos al diseño. Es notable la ausencia de este tipo de requisitos en el ciclo de vida para el desarrollo de una interfaz humano-computador. En estos casos, se puede introducir un conjunto de parámetros críticos que permita definir las unidades de medida [Newman et al. 2000]. Estos parámetros son críticos porque el éxito o el fracaso del diseño dependen de forma crítica del cumplimiento de los objetivos fijados para estos parámetros. Los parámetros críticos permiten formalizar un espacio de diseño en el que se re-usa el conocimiento [Cheward et al. 2004], expresando los problemas asociados a una interfaz con un lenguaje consistente y que permite a los expertos expresar juicios a través de una 'evaluación medida' [Caroll et al. 1992]. El principal objetivo de esta tesis es desarrollar un marco de evaluación predictiva para Sistemas de Notificación en Aviónica (SNA) basado en las teorías cognitivas, que pueda proporcionar datos cualitativos y cuantitativos que permita a los diseñadores y evaluadores de interfaces averiguar si la interfaz sea usable antes de construirlo. De este modo, el diseñador de interfaces puede ser capaz de introducir la evaluación como patrones de diseño de la interfaz humano-computador sin requerir recursos adicionales. En esta tesis, la aproximación a la evaluación de la interfaz humano-computador de los Sistemas de Notificación para sistemas críticos en aviónica se propone en varios pasos. En primer lugar se establecen un conjunto de parámetros críticos basado en los modelos psicológicos, para después, realizar una evaluación predictiva de la usabilidad basada en la cuantificación de estos parámetros y, finalmente, aplicar de forma incremental las guías de diseño basándose en una estrategia de escenarios. Esta aproximación permitirá una evaluación sistemática garantizando, por un lado, centrarse en el diseño en términos de objetivos cuantificables, independientemente del evaluador y del usuario y, por otro lado, mejorar de forma continua y agregativa los diseños específicos aplicables a un problema determinado. En esta tesis, la principal contribución es la formalización matemática de cada uno de los parámetros críticos seleccionados para llevar a cabo la evaluación de usabilidad de las interfaces de Sistemas de Notificación integrados en sistemas críticos. El objetivo de esta tesis es conseguir una función de evaluación Ф, tal que aplicada a la interfaz del sistema de notificación permita obtener datos numéricos en el dominio de los números reales. Formalmente, el objetivo es obtener ℜΦ∃∀a)(/IIφ Donde I es la interfaz del sistema de notificación y Ф es la función de evaluación de la usabilidad que produce como resultado un número real. Para evaluar la validez de este marco de evaluación es aplicado a la interfaz de la planta de potencia de dos aviones modernos y a la interfaz de control de la planta de potencia de un avión de transporte militar. La aplicación de este marco de evaluación está basada en la ejecución de tests automáticos implementados en Ada95 aplicados a una caracterización XML de las interfaces. ____________________________________________ ; It's unheard-of to find any system of any kind, whether critical or not, based on computer with no human interaction. Even though it will be a system related with the communication between two computers it is mostly used to find an interface allowing to solve any problem related with the link between computers [Mulligan et al. 1991]. The user of a computer interface, as any human being, needs information, which is considered one of the few constants in our every day world, whatever his culture or activity. This need plays together with other tasks the user has to perform in such a way that there are at least two systems competing for the most appraised resource at any human-computer interface: the user attention. Different usage situations, expectations, and error consequences govern the growing breed of applications and devices being introduced to support multitasking information demands. Referred to as notification systems, these interfaces are generally desired as a means to access valued information in an efficient and effective manner without introducing unwanted interruption to a primary task. They can be found in many implementation forms and on a variety of platforms. Perhaps classic desktop systems are the most readily identifiable—instant messengers, status programs, and news and stock tickers. Other familiar examples such as Weiser's dangling string representation of network, in-vehicle information systems, ambient media, multi-monitor displays hint at the potential range of systems and modern aircraft cockpit. While use of these systems and the range of solutions have skyrocketed, our ability to scientifically recognize, pattern, and improve success within the HCI community has not kept pace. There are surprisingly few efforts in the literature that effectively evaluate usability of the information and interaction design for notification systems. On the other hand, a system will be considered as critic when a sole failure due to the system, the user, or the way the user executes the tasks that the system is designed for could produce serious damage to the system itself, in its surrounds or even tragic damage to the user. Examples of this kind of system can be found on many aircrafts corresponding to critical systems handled by very specialized users. Generically usability evaluation includes a spread set of methods and techniques used by evaluators for examining, qualitatively or quantitatively, several aspects related with usability. As support to the design, evaluation will allow firstly verification of design decisions and secondly to choose among possible alternatives. Although evaluation is recognized as very valuable it is rarely introduced in the design cycle of a product and it is deemed as very hard in terms of time and resources and what is worse is that it does not add any value to the product. Human-computer interface evaluation permits the comparison of different systems and ultimately to determine which system is better. Therefore evaluation shall provide direct measurement units to determine the interface usability and to compare two interfaces objectively. Even though computer users are extensively used for notification systems their evaluation is limited to probe the intrinsic value of some isolated paradigms of design based in a single implementation. The evaluation of notification systems is poorly developed on interfaces for systems in general and extremely rare in critical systems. The only available experiences are based on empirical data on simulated environments and the follow-up of some guidebooks probed by the experience. Those guidebooks come from military applications and even they can be questioned from the cognitive science point of view. These guidebooks are mostly accepted on interface user design for notification critical systems. The designer of these interfaces can justifiably reject them based on his experience and judgement. If there is no quantitative evaluation based on cognitive models then the evaluator will never be able to scientifically determine the errors in the interface. A situation can be reached with no way out, with the designer and the evaluator set against each other with conflicting needs. This situation can be resolved with an evaluation framework, which provides quantitative data showing whether one design is better than the other based on objective principles. Design and evaluation of human-computer interfaces have evolved much faster than theories based on psychology and cognitive science and still there are a number of issues that remain unresolved. The design has evolved since line editors and customized application with interfaces reduced to very cryptic line commands up to interfaces WIMP (Windows-Icons-Menus-Pointers), information recovery systems, smart agents, CSCW (Cooperative and Shared Computer Works) servers, virtual environments, augmented reality, tangible bits, ubiquitous computation, the web and many types of interfaces able to talk and show emotions. Usability evaluation has evolved based only on heuristics and empirical evaluation [Nielsen 1993; Dix et al. 2.003]. Evaluation based on theory has been considered as being of very limited value [Landauer 1987] due to the fact that it has a very limited scope and application areas, applicable only to local features of an interface and with a very reduced capacity to be re-used on other designs in the real world, far away from laboratories. Although a big effort is paid for developing theories covering a wide set of topics most of them are only adjustments so as to explain every day applications. Currently, the performance measurements are not done against specific requirements prior to design. It is notable that there is an absence of this kind of requirements in a human-computer interface development life cycle. In case of absence of performance requirements a set of critical parameters could be introduced in order to define measurement units [Newman et al. 2000]. These parameters are so called critical because the success or failure of a design will depend critically whether the fixed objectives are fulfilled or not. Critical parameters allow formalising a design space [Cheward et al. 2004] which allocates acknowledge re-use, expressing interface problems with a consistent language and let experts to express judgements through a mediated evaluation [Caroll et al. 1992]. The main objective of this thesis is to develop a framework of predictive evaluation for notification system on avionics (NSA) (from aviation electronics) based on cognitive theories which can bring both quantitative and qualitative data which allow interface designers and evaluators to guess whether the system will be usable before it is built. The interface designer will be able to include evaluation on the Human-Computer Interface pattern design without adding any additional resources. In this thesis the approach to usability evaluation for the design of Human-Computer Interface of notification systems for critical design in avionics is proposed in several steps. Firstly to establish the set of critical parameters based on psychological models, then to carry out a predictive usability evaluation based on the quantification of these parameters and finally to apply in an incremental way the design guidelines based on a scenario strategy. This approach will allow a systematic evaluation, achieving on one side to focalize the design in term of quantifiable objectives independently of the evaluator and the user and, on other side improving in a continuous and aggregative way the different designs applicable on a specific problem. In this thesis, the main contribution is a mathematical formalization of each critical parameter for carrying out quantitative usability evaluation on interfaces for notification systems integrated on critical system. The objective is to reach an evaluation function Ф in such a way that applied to the interface of a notification system I it will permit to get quantitative data on the real numbers domain. Formally the objective is to obtain ℜΦ∃∀a)(/IIφ Where I is the interface of the notification system and Ф is the usability evaluation function which produce a real number. To evaluate the validity of this framework it will be applied to two power plant control interfaces of modern aircrafts and to a power plant control interface to be implemented in a military transport aircraft. The application of this framework is based on the execution of automatic test implemented on Ada95 applied to a XML characterization for the interfaces.

Introduction I examined how one may establish directorial and choreographic proficiency in the contemporary society of American musical theatre. I did so by completing an examination of five personal observations in my craft. These observations included: (1) Directorship and choreography of Welcome to Vegas, an original jukebox musical; (2) Mentorship on Theatre UCF's Nine as Assistant Director and Co-Choreographer; (3) Research on the methodologies of various directors and choreographers; (4) Directorship and choreography of Welcome to Broadway, an original jukebox musical; and (5) Assistant to the Program Director of Broadway Theatre Project. I evaluated parallels of my directing and choreography methodologies with those of noted directors and choreographers in the entertainment industry. These industry professionals include famed choreographer Ernest O. Flatt, Ron Field, Hermes Pan, Joe Layton, and Lee Theodore, acclaimed directors Harold Clurman, Dr. Louis E. Catron, and Jon Jory, and prolific director-choreographers Patricia Birch, Donald Saddler, Bob Avian, Bob Fosse, Tommy Tune, and Michael Bennett, as well as Professor Weaver. I have worked for people who believe that experience alone is enough to make one a successful director, choreographer, or director-choreographer. My experience working with and observations of professional directors, choreographers, and director-choreographers, however, has proven that it takes more than experience alone in order to succeed. I predicted the process of establishing my own directorial and choreographic proficiency will stem from a combination of inspiration, mentorship, trial and error, and experience. Background A director coordinates and mounts theatrical productions while unifying the script, design elements, and cast to serve the world of the play. By dictionary definition, a director is, "�a person who supervises the production of a show for stage or screen with responsibility for action and rehearsals" (Webster 414). Underneath the producer, the director serves as the apex of the production. As compared to directors, choreographers fill a more visually aesthetic capacity in musical theatre. A choreographer is "�a person who designs or arranges the movement of a dance" (Webster 259). The choreographer acts in lieu of the director wherever there is music and step sequence. This is the case with exception being given to the director-choreographer. In an interview with Svetlana McLee Grody, Donald Saddler, original member of the American Ballet Theatre, expressed, ".director choreographer really give a musical a whole concept, a patina of style. Their contribution is a good 40 - 50 percent of the success of the show" (Grody and Lister 16). Experiences I will explicitly reflect on four profound career proceedings. Each will be as an effort to learn to become a better director-choreographer. These observations will chronicle an insightful phase of my learning process. Welcome to Vegas Welcome to Vegas is an original jukebox musical I authored, produced, directed, and choreographed. It was intended that the production would be a cathartic experience for the audience, allowing them to escape from the confines of everyday life by entering the humorous, loquacious, and musical world of the play. The story chronicles the triumphs and misadventures of a struggling young man in New York. When this waiter-by-day, singer-by-night becomes the opening act of a famous Vegas lounge singer, he embarks on an outrageous and witty journey across America in his Pontiac GTO. The musical's book was written while I attended my first semester at the University of Central Florida. The absurd vignette-style scenes were inspired by the sketch comedy of The Carol Burnett Show and the staging of Ernest O. Flatt. The production rehearsed four days per week for nine weeks and utilized a cast of 17 performers who ranged in age from 6 to 67. During production numbers, I drew strongly on the choreographic and visual inspiration of Bob Fosse, utilizing knocked-knees, sickled feet, 1960s movement influence, and a significant use of props, white gloves, fishnet tights, and bowler hats. I used this choreographic and visual concept to create a fervent contrast to the set and costumes, which emulated the visual aesthetics of Stan Lee's comic books. Nine With music and lyrics by Maury Yeston and a script by Arthur Kopit, Nine is a dark musical based on Federico Fellini's 8 1/2 and catalogues ".the last days of a director's once brilliant career" (Kopit 66). As the Assistant Director and Co-Choreographer, I was mentored by and worked directly under Professor Earl Weaver, Artistic Director of Theatre UCF. Upon entering my apprenticeship, I anticipated an authoritarian relationship where I would serve as a supervisory assistant, without exploiting my creative skills. To my pleasant revelation, I served as an intimate and integral component of the production's artistic process, conceptualizing choreography, staging three numbers, and giving notes, in addition to the duties of a managerial assistant. I created a choreographic vision for my work by fusing the styles of the Parisian Folies Bergere with American burlesque, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Golden Age movie musicals, and, of course, Bob Fosse's sensual silkiness. I did this while attempting to blend with and compliment Professor Weaver's choreographic style that resided within his world of the production. Welcome to Broadway Welcome to Broadway is an original jukebox musical I authored, produced, directed, and choreographed. My directorial style was greatly influenced by Professor Weaver, after observing his methodologies on Nine. My choreographic style strongly had been inspired by Bob Fosse and Michael Bennett. The production opened and ran for a nearly sold out engagement. My intention for the show was to encapsulate all the magic of the MGM Golden Age movie musicals into 105 minutes, featuring a cast of 25 entertainers, ranging in skill from first production to Equity veteran. My script was highly inspired by the cliche romanticism of Hollywood hits, such as Casablanca, Royal Wedding, Holiday Inn, The Public Enemy, and White Christmas. The story picks up where Welcome to Vegas left off. Michael, the formerly struggling young artist, has now made a name for himself, has inherited a production company, and is about to open his first show on Broadway when things begin to go awry. A jealous, washed-up producer has concocted an outrageous scheme to get rid of Michael on opening night. Chaos ensues behind the scenes, while the show must go on in front of the curtain. My scenic vision was to capture the auspicious spectacle of Footlight Parade, Mary Poppins, and Singing in the Rain. In post-show reflection, I realized my production displayed some similarities to Susan Stroman's succinct comedic timing and physical humor and Hal Prince's fast, moment-to-moment pace, leading me to believe that, perhaps, I had been subconsciously influenced by their works. Broadway Theatre Project Broadway Theatre Project celebrating its 26th anniversary as a summer intensive that Playbill.com refers to as ".the world's most prestigious musical theatre arts education program for high school and college students" (Broadway Theatre Project web). Entering my third year with the project, I serve as the Assistant to the Program Director and Director of Public Relations. My contribution is both administrative and creative, as I work directly under Program Director/Music Director David Sabella-Mills, Co-Artistic Director Darren Gibson, and President/Co-Artistic Director Debra McWaters. Gibson has established himself as a performer and dance captain working with Broadway veteran Ann Reinking on the national and European tours of Fosse. In addition, he has staged ballets for the Richmond Ballet, the Boston Ballet, and the American Ballet Theatre. He is currently Education Director for TexARTS. Gibson is an excellent mentor because he has a wealth of knowledge he is willing to share with me. For instance, he has taught me that in order to be an outstanding choreographer, one must look deeper than merely studying other musicals; one must study how/by whom the choreographers of those musicals were initially inspired. By heeding his counsel, I will be able to go from modifying and/or re-teaching others' choreography to establishing my own choreography. McWaters has had an enviable career directing and choreographing on stages around the world, including Broadway. For 15 years, she served as Assistant then Associate Choreographer for Reinking on Chicago, Fosse, and The Visit. She is an excellent mentor for me because not only is she a disciple of Fosse's, but she has afforded me the opportunity to serve as her Assistant to the Choreographer for three numbers, including staging the original choreography to "Yellow Shoes." This will allow me to analyze and understand the inner workings of a true artistic genius who is seasoned in the craft I wish to pursue. Industry Professionals Additionally, I will research the styles, methodologies, and philosophies of numerous established industry professionals, including: Ernest O. Flatt Ernest O. Flatt was "a dancer, choreographer and director who won four Emmy Awards for his work in television" (Obituary: Ernest O. Flatt). He made his silver-screen debut as a dancer in Dancing in the Dark and his television debut as choreographer in Your Hit Parade. He danced with Gene Kelly in Singin' in the Rain, choreographed the movie Anything Goes, and his dancers were fixtures on The Judy Garland Show, The Entertainers, and The Steve Lawrence Show. Flatt's most lasting television work was for The Carol Burnett Show, on which he served as the choreographer for eleven years (Grody and Lister 24). Despite the fact that Flatt is primarily recognized as a television choreographer, I am compelled to study his work because I admire his style. Although it is reminiscent of years gone by, particularly with partnering, his work is still entertaining and holds value for contemporary theatre as classic musicals are being revived. Studying his work in-depth will serve to enhance my style by showing me how to vary my choreography so the dance numbers do not all look similar. In addition, Flatt believed that allowing the ensemble or solo performer to contribute too much was stifling to his creativity (Grody and Lister 32). On previous productions, I have fallen into this pitfall. Further study of his work will enable me to subscribe to his focus and not be so influenced by what dancers are comfortable doing, as opposed to what they can do in order to expand their personal growth and my growth as a choreographer. Harold Clurman One of the three founders of New York City's Group Theatre, Harold Clurman directed more than 40 productions and was nominated for several Tony Awards. In addition, he was a widely-feared theatre critic for over 30 years; he helped to shape American theatre by writing about it. I will specifically study On Directing, one of Clurman's seven published works on the art of directing. Elia Kazan, who is commonly referred to as one of the most honored and influential directors in Broadway and Hollywood history, has called this particular book "the most influential book on direction ever written" (Clurman Preface). I would be compelled to study Clurman based on Kazan's recommendation alone; however, I am even more motivated to do so because I am discovering that I closely practice his stated philosophy on directing, "Direction is a job, a craft, a profession, and at best, an art. The director must be an organizer, a teacher, a politician, a psychic detective, a lay analyst, a technician, a creative being�All of which means he must be a "great lover" of the art" (Clurman 14). By examining the work of a man who is credited with helping to shape American theatre and whose philosophy so closely matches mine, I desire to formally establish my methodology as a director. Jon Jory Jon Jory learned to act first-hand from his parents, who were successful Hollywood actors of the 1940's and 50's, earning his Actors' Equity card as a young child. He grew to prominence as a director in the early 60's and, since then, he has mounted over 1,300 professional productions. I will specifically study Jory's Tips: Ideas for Directors. Jory says that he worked "making the same mistakes for years that a tip or two by a peer or veteran could have shortcutted" (xiii). His goal with this book is to help directors improve their craft more quickly by passing along the tips he has learned over the years. I am compelled to study Jory because of his willingness to share his tips on what has made him a successful director for approximately one-half of a century spanning nine countries. In addition, he headed the Actor's Theatre of Louisville, Kentucky, for more than 31 years, which he helped to build into one of America's most respected regional theatre companies, earning him a special Tony Award for Achievement in Regional Theatre (Jory xv). Since one of my professional goals is to become an Artistic Director at a regional theatre, Jory is a perfect selection for my research. Bob Fosse Deeply inspired by Fred Astaire and coping with his own psychological and physical abnormalities, Bob Fosse created the most unique and stylized iconic movements and vocabularies in musical theatre history. His most lasting works included Chicago, Damn Yankees, Cabaret, Sweet Charity, and Pippin. Fosse is an eight-time Tony Award-winning consummate artist. Ben Vereen says, "To have worked with Bob Fosse is to have had your hand directly on the pulse of life. To have applied this world-recognizable style into your repertory is to truly know how to dance forever" (McWaters Foreward). I have had the good fortune of learning his distinct techniques from some of his disciples while studying at Broadway Theatre Project. I am compelled to study Fosse because he was a renowned producer, director, choreographer, playwright, screenwriter, dancer, and actor--all of which are aspirations of mine. According to Vereen, Fosse was often called "demanding," "strenuous," and a "task master," yet he was highly respected by his dancers (McWaters Foreword). Fosse's ability to earn respect while demanding perfection is a quality I hope to learn and emulate with further study of his work. Tommy Tune Tommy Tune, nicknamed Broadway's tallest tapper, is considered one of Broadway's most accomplished director-choreographers. He is a 10-time Tony Award winner. "Tommy is the first person in theatrical history to have won a Tony Award in four different categories: Best Featured Actor, Choreography, Best Actor, and Direction" (Grody and Lister 142). At the June, 2015 Tony Awards ceremony, he received a Lifetime Achievement Honor. I am compelled to study Tune's methodology because he is considered a living legend; he has been a big time showman for over 50 years. In addition, I am compelled to study Tune's philosophy because he speaks to me with respect to security as an artist. Tune says, "There is no such thing as security. You must always be willing to expect the unexpected because the journey is never what you expect it to be. So be prepared to be surprised" (Grody and Lister 149). I must learn to trust this philosophy as I face not only the uncertainty of life beyond graduation from the University of Central Florida, but also as I face each door that opens in my future. Michael Bennett Michael Bennett's fascination with West Side Story was the impetus for Bennett to become a director-choreographer of the standing of Jerome Robbins (Grody and Lister 114). As a director, choreographer, writer, and actor, Michael Bennett is a seven-time Tony Award winner. His choreographic works were highly athletic and engrossed in technique. He is best known for his work on Promises, Promises; Follies; Company; and A Chorus Line, and he was fortunate to have had the opportunity to be inspired by such greats as Bob Fosse, Michael Kidd, Ron Field, Lee Theodore, and Danny Daniels (Grody and Lister 114). I am compelled to study Bennett because our early backgrounds are similar: neither of us had dance lessons until we were in our teens, and neither of us could read music, although we both listened to a great deal of it. I am inspired to learn/practice Bennett's methodologies for overcoming these challenges, such as his recommendations to see every musical possible in order to see how good directors-choreographers work and to prepare for a show as far as possible ahead of time (Grody and Lister 101). In addition, I am compelled to study Bennett's technique of compensation when he could not choreograph a number as conceptualized due to the limited skill of the dancer(s) with whom he was working at the time (Grody and Lister 103). Studying and applying these methods and techniques when faced with challenges will enable me to be a better director-choreographer. Deduction It is essential for me to delve into extensive research of directorial and choreographic concepts and pedagogy because I strongly desire to learn the means by which one establishes proficiency as a Director-Choreographer artist. It will help me to answer such questions as: How does one begin to direct/choreograph a piece? How knowledgeable does one need to be with respect to music? How knowledgeable does one need to be with respect to different forms of dance? What affects one most with respect to choreographing a number? Is there value in working with assistants? Since my study will include not only my own personal experiences and observations, but also those of renowned professionals, it will enable me to formally establish my own unique style of directing and choreographing. ; 2015-12-01 ; B.A. ; Arts and Humanities, Dept. of Theatre ; Bachelors ; This record was generated from author submitted information.

Chapter1. Effect of Lime And Brick Ash Inclusion on Engineering Behaviour of Expansive Soil -- Chapter2. Know your Daily Rainfall in any Location in India- A Web-based Approach Developed in Google Earth Engine -- Chapter3. IoT- Based Innovative Technological Solutions for Smart Cities and Villages -- Chapter4. A Review on Utilization of E-Waste in Construction -- Chapter5. Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) for Treatment of Storm water Runoff -- Chapter6. Textile Industry Wastewater Treatment using Eco-friendly Techniques -- Chapter7. Sustainable Treatment of Metal-Contaminated Soil by Electrokinetic Remediation -- Chapter8. Eco-Restoration of lakes and water sustainability in urban areas -- Chapter9. Microplastics: Environmental Issues and their Management -- Chapter10. Elucidating the Effect of Cement Dust on Selective Soil Parameters around J&K Cements Limited, Khrew -- Chapter11. Development of Correlation between Ultrasonic Pulse Velocity and Rebound Hammer Test Results for Condition Assessment of Concrete Structures for Sustainable Infrastructure Development. Chapter12. Alternative Fine Aggregates to Produce Sustainable Self Compacting Concrete: A Review -- Chapter13. Structural Behavior of Reinforced Concrete Column Using Diamond Tie Configuration under Elevated Temperatures for Sustainable Performance: A Review -- Chapter14. Reusable and Recyclable Industrial Waste in Geopolymer Concrete -- Chapter15. Infrared Thermography Parameter Optimization for Damage Detection of Concrete Structures Using Finite Element Simulations -- Chapter16. Eco-friendly Concrete Admixture from Black Liquor Generated in Pulp and Paper Industry -- Chapter17. Behavioural study on concrete with organic materials for CO2 absorption -- Chapter18. An Efficient Design and Development of IoT based Real-Time Water Pollution Monitoring and Quality Management System -- Chapter19. Numerical Study of Composite Wrapped Reinforced Concrete Columns Subjected to Close-in Blast -- Chapter20. Evaluation of conventional red bricks with compressed stabilized earth blocks as alternate sustainable building materials in Indian context -- Chapter21. Experimental Study on Alternative Building Material using Cement and Stone Dust as Stabilizers in Stabilized Mud Block -- Chapter22. Utilizing the Potential of Textile Effluent Treatment Sludge in Construction Industry: Current Status, Opportunities, Challenges, and Solutions -- Chapter23. Identification of Suitable Solid Waste Disposal Sites for the Arba Minch Town, Ethiopia, Using Geospatial Technology and AHP Method -- Chapter24. Framing Conceptual Design of Adopting Interlocking Bricks Technology in Construction -- Chapter25. Arriving Factors in the Conceptual Design Framework of 3D Printing Techniques for Building construction -- Chapter26. Scenic Evaluation of the Hills for Tourism Development - A Study on the Hills Of Tamilnadu, India -- Chapter27. Influence of Groundnut Shell Ash and Waste Plaster of Paris on Clayey Soil for Sustainable Construction -- Chapter28. Influence of Metakaolin and Steel Fiber on Strength of Concrete - A Critical Review -- Chapter29. Decadal monitoring of Coastline shifts and recommendation of Non-structural Protection measures along the coast of Rameshwaram, Tamilnadu, India -- Chapter30. Development of sustainable concrete using slag and calcined clay -- Chapter31. Assessment of the impact of bacillus cereus bacteria on strength and water absorption capacity of sustainable concrete -- Chapter32. Design and Development of Corona-19 Pandemic Situation-based Remote Voting System -- Chapter33. Waste Pozzolanic Material as a substitute of Geopolymer Mortar -- Chapter34. Study of the carbon emissions from construction of a house in plain region using standard construction material and eco-friendly/ alternative materials -- Chapter35. Experimental investigation of the impacts of partial substitution of cement with rice husk ash (RHA) on the characteristics of cement mortar -- Chapter36. A Mini review on Current Advancement in Application of Bacterial Cellulose in Pulp and Paper Industry -- Chapter37. Effect of agro-waste as a partial replacement in cement for sustainable concrete production -- Chapter38. Analysis and Evaluation of Geopolymer Concrete from Mechanical standpoint -- Chapter39. Municipal Waste Management in India: A Critical Review of Disposal System and Model Implementation -- Chapter40. Experimental Study on Light Weight Geopolymer Concrete Using Expanded Clay Aggregate -- Chapter41. Seismic Response of Composite Bridges: A Review -- Chapter42. Assessing and Correlating the Flow Duration Curve and Drought Index for the Environmental Flow Requirements -- Chapter43. Effect on Rheological and Hardened properties of Fly ash-GGBS based High Strength Self Compacting Concrete with inclusion of Micro and Nano Silica -- Chapter44. Mechanical Property study on Glass fibre concrete with partial replacement of fine aggregate with steel slag -- Chapter45. Mechanical Properties of Geopolymer Concrete Partial Replacement of Fine Aggregate with Waste Crushed Glass -- Chapter46. A Performance Study on Lithium based admixture in the properties of concrete -- Chapter47. Self-Curing Concrete Made By Using Hemp: A Review -- Chapter48. Research Progress of India in Waste Management at Global Level: A Bibliometric Evaluation -- Chapter49. Performance Evaluation of Acrylic Based Coating on Carbonation Depth on Different Grades of Concrete -- Chapter50. Cost Benefit Analysis of Retrofitting for Existing Building as Net Zero Energy Building: A Case Study in Composite Climate Zone -- Chapter51. Advances in Building Materials Industry by Annexation of Nano Materials -- Chapter52. Experimental Investigations on Utilization of Electroplating Waste Sludge in Manufacturing of Polymer Based Checkered Tiles -- Chapter53. Alccofine as a partial substitute of cement with scrap iron slag as a coarser material in high strength non-conventional concrete as an experimentational representation. Chapter54. Water Pollution: "Dal Lake a case study" -- Chapter55. Durability Properties of Admixture of Fly ash, Bottom Ash And GBFS -- Chapter56. Comparative Studies of Compressive Strength on Different Brick Masonry Prisms -- Chapter57. Monitoring and Management of Construction Sites Using Drone -- Chapter58. Experimental Investigation on Buckling Behaviour of Transmission Tower using Cold Formed and Hot Rolled Steel -- Chapter59. Assessment of indoor air quality of buildings made of bricks developed from paper pulp waste -- Chapter60. Review on Shear Strengthened RC Rectangular beams with FRP Composites -- Chapter61. Machine Learning Based Quality Prediction of Reuse Water in Sewage Treatment Plant -- Chapter62. "Prediction, Impact and Mitigation of Ambient Air Quality Pollutant Concentrations in Chandigarh" A Review -- Chapter63. A Review of Environmental Flow Evaluation Methodologies – Limitations and Validations -- Chapter64. Sustainable development of Scheduled caste and Scheduled tribes' population in select villages of Himachal Pradesh, India: A Cross Sectional Study.

The central objective of this paper is to put the discussion of women's rights in Afghanistan in the context of the multiple transitions entailed by the process of post-conflict reconstruction: a security transition (from war to peace), a political transition (to the formation of a legitimate and effective state) and a socioeconomic transition (from a "conflict" economy to sustainable growth). These transformations do not occur in a social vacuum but build upon existing societal arrangements that condition and limit the range of available opportunities. The first section contextualizes current attempts at securing women's rights in the troubled history of state-building and state-society relations in Afghanistan. The latter were marked by tensions between a rentier state bolstered by foreign subsidies, which had a relatively weak engagement with society, and a rural hinterland that both resisted the incursions of the state and attempted to represent tribal interests within it. Attempts at modernization, including the expansion of women's rights, were instigated by a male state elite whose bids to centralize power were thwarted at various junctures. The issue of women's rights was used as a bargaining counter in contests between social forces whose geopolitical entanglements produced sharp swings of the pendulum between extremes such as the Soviet-backed socialist experiment under the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) and the Islamist policies of the Pakistani-backed Taliban. However, in a context where the state's interface with local communities, whether in terms of the legal framework, revenue collection or service delivery, was always limited, attempts to analyse women's rights with reference only to government policies suffer from serious shortcomings. It is, rather, to the profound transformations brought about by years of protracted conflict that one must look for a better appraisal of obstacles to and opportunities for more gender-equitable development in Afghanistan. The second section discusses the implications of the far-reaching changes in social relations brought about by years of war and displacement following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. A predominantly rural country whose population achieved relatively self-sufficient livelihoods was transformed into a fragmented polity where a significant proportion of the economy is based on illicit, criminalized networks of trade in drugs (opium poppy, in particular) and commodities such as timber and emeralds, smuggling of goods and human trafficking. The central argument put forward in this section is that routine violations of women's rights in Afghanistan are determined by analytically distinct but overlapping and mutually reinforcing sets of influences: the dynamics of gendered disadvantage, the erosion of local livelihoods and growing poverty, the criminalization of the economy, and insecurity due to the predations of armed groups and factions. Particular combinations of new pressures (such as poverty, indebtedness and predation by local strongmen) and existing practices (such as the early marriage of girls against the payment of brideprice) create outcomes that may easily be misidentified as unmediated expressions of local "culture", thus detracting critical attention from the full nexus of influences that deepen the vulnerability of girls and women. The third section focuses on processes of institutional development and reform since the Bonn Agreement in 2001.The national machinery set up for the advancement of women consists of: the Ministry of Women's Affairs (MOWA); the Office of the State Minister for Women (OSMOW), set up to provide policy guidance with particular reference to legislative and judicial reform processes; the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC), tasked with the advancement of women's rights under one of its five programme areas; and the Gender Advisory Group (GAG), a donor-government co-ordination body that assists in formulating a national framework and budget for gender mainstreaming. The most tangible gains so far have been achieved in the area of legal rights, which were enshrined in the new Constitution of January 2004 and provide legal guarantees for women's equality as citizens and for their political representation. Many unresolved questions remain concerning the respective roles of Islamic and tribal laws and the stipulations of international treaties to which the government is a signatory (such as the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women/CEDAW which was ratified without reservations in March 2003). Without a process of consensus-building through political normalization and reconciliation, the risk that women's rights will be held hostage to factional politics remains high. The expansion of women's formal rights cannot, in any case, translate into substantive benefits in the absence of security and the rule of law. Moreover, women's formal rights to civic participation may have limited impact in a context where they remain wards of their households and communities and where their most basic entitlements to education and health continue to be denied. The conclusion draws attention to crippling disjunctures between different facets of post-conflict transition. Legal and governance reforms have advanced at a faster pace than has been achieved in the security sector or the transition to sustainable livelihoods. There is also a disjuncture between, on the one hand, the time frames adopted and outputs expected by international actors driving the women's rights agenda, and on the other, the length of time required for non-cosmetic changes in societal relations to develop as a result of peace-building. Since the issue of women's rights continues to occupy a highly politicized and sensitive place in the struggles between contending political factions in Afghanistan, this disjuncture may itself produce unintended effects, with disempowering consequences for women.

We were asked by the Independent Evaluation Office to outline political science methods for assessing the chances of reform implementation in an ex-ante fashion. We agreed to illustrate how these tools 'work' by using Pakistan as a case study. The recent literature on IMF-sponsored reforms points out that successful implementation not only depends on the nature and severity of the economic crisis and on the design of the reforms, but very much also on the political economy of reform politics. We have identified the following as salient political factors for identifying chances of reform success: - the power of sections of the economy and polity that will lose from effective implementation; - the political independence of reform-minded branches of government vis-à-vis politicians that depend on popular support; - the institutional capacity to implement reform; - a high degree of acceptance of the reforms among the major stakeholders (the 'ownership' factor). We have designed three tools that help forecast how these factors will develop in the future. Each tool comprises three dimensions of analysis: - how these factors will develop after signing an agreement, given visible trends in the immediate past (trend extrapolation); - how these factors would be influenced by an effective reform implementation (impact analysis); - how other political framework conditions will evolve and what impact this may have for the reform prospects (scenario building). The three tools belong to different types of forecasting techniques and thus illustrate the wide range methods available. They also address different combinations of the four political factors. The three tools are summarized below. Tool 1: Stakeholder analysis This tool forecasts how the political struggle over reform will end by assessing the relative power and influence of the major stakeholders and by estimating how this balance of power will develop in the future. The three dimensions of analysis could look as follows: Trend extrapolation involves a close inspection of: 1) the reform steps undertaken during and before the negotiation period; 2) the negotiation style of the government (inclusiveness and transparency); 3) the degree of ownership of the reform idea among the major stakeholders. Impact analysis estimates how the power base of the actual government (factor 1) and the relation between civil servants and elected politicians (factor 2) will change due to effective implementation of the reforms and how this in turn influences the probability of continued implementation in the mid-term. Scenario building integrates other independent trends (e.g. declining power base of a party in power) as well as unforeseeable events (such as a foreign policy crisis) into the assessment exercise. The scenarios may be ranked by probability. Tool 2: Institutional analysis This tool would comprise three different elements of analysis. Institutional mapping describes the network of institutions (both governmental and non-governmental and at different levels) involved in decision making and reform implementation. The veto power analysis then determines the relative power and independence of those branches of the bureaucracy that are able and determined to implement reforms. The capacity assessment would look at levels of professionalism, recruitment procedures, educational background and motivation in those branches of government. Trend extrapolation would take into account actual trends of institutional change in determining the chances of reform implementation. Under the impact analysis, the institutional consequences of the reform programme itself and their impact on capacity and willingness to reform can be assessed. The scenario technique could be used to produce different scenarios of mid-term institutional change and see how they influence the prospects for economic reform. Tool 3: Delphi study Delphi studies belong to the pool of expert opinion tools. It consists of at least three rounds of surveys administered by a questionnaire. The experts may adjust their responses in the second and subsequent rounds after having been informed about the mean answers of the previous round. We suggest to ask at least 15 experts from think tanks, advisory bodies, the media, universities etc. to assess a) the prospects for the reforms being implemented given current political trends; b) the political impact of the reforms and how it may affect the possibility of sustained reform; and c) the probability of various mid-term political scenarios and the chances for sustaining reform under these scenarios. One of the comparative advantages of Delphi studies is that the results are not influenced by opinion leader phenomena. They can be used to quickly assess the constellations of opinions with regard to specific policy options and the probabilities associated with different future developments. In the concluding section we recommend - to apply the maximum possible number of tools in order to arrive at a solid assessment of the political feasibility of a programme from different perspectives. - to apply the 'triangulation of methods' approach whenever it is necessary to outbalance different results produced by the different tools. This means to reinterpret results and search for new evidence until more coherent overall conclusions can be reached; - to develop a multi-tier assessment system, where the basic tier, streamlined to all IMFsupported programmes, would consist in the trend extrapolation and impact assessment components of stakeholder analysis; institutional analysis would represent a second tier, to be applied to cases where doubts about implementation prospects are higher; a Delphi study, including scenario building, represents the most complex exercise reserved for the most contested cases; - to rely on careful judgement when deciding to more systematically include political factors, taking into account the risks of becoming involved in political and institutional engineering in sovereign nation states.

Economic dunderheads all, Caddo Parish commissioners
look
to compound a mistake that will set back hopes of parish economic
development.

In August, the Commission followed the lead of
some Louisiana governments, including Shreveport, that have raised their minimum
wages above the state level to pass an ordinance
doing the same, in this case $15 an hour which is more than double the state's.
It applies at present only to what the parish pays its employees, to take
effect at the start of next year.

Discussion
on the matter actually began in February in a committee. Rookie Democrat
Commissioner Greg Young
spearheaded the move, which he characterized as one that addressed economic and
crime concerns, in that by taking more tax dollars and/or reducing services in
other areas to meet the increased personnel costs employees below the $15 level
brought them closer to a "living wage" and that would reduce poverty and
therefore the temptation to commit crime.

Young, who has spent most of his adult life in the
military, has no special training in economics, which he said "is not based on
logic, but based on reasoning." And it showed in his stated justification,
which flies in the face both of economic theory and hard
data, as well as his characterization of economics as "based on reasoning" –
logic is a tool of reason, or systematic thought to understand phenomena, rendering
his characterization gibberish unless he posits that something other than logic
is applied in the study of economics.

Which might explain his arguments for the
ordinance, as from his formulation of the minimum wage concept and its consequences
it seems there's no logic at all to it. Young appears to believe that raising
the minimum wage, if not its very presence, is a magic box sprinkled with fairy
dust to create wealth out of nowhere. Jack it up, giving some people more
money, they spend more of it to support more commerce, which means more wealth
for everybody and less demand on government transfer payments and less crime
committed and, presto, we're all better off.

The simplest way to expose the fraudulence of this
view is to introduce absurd parameters to demonstrate the absurdity of the
idea. That is, why stop at $15? Why not $100? Doesn't that pump even more money
into the economy and make this better for everybody, according to his theory?

Of course it doesn't, because analyzing an absurd
case exposes fundamental aspects of the flawed concepts and their relationships
of the underlying theory. Here, it's this: wages reflect the contribution that
the activity makes to society, when they are set by a free market without elements
that force a degree of coercion onto transactions. Intuitively, we know that
ditch-digging doesn't contribute $100 an hour's worth to society, but we may be
harder pressed to understand that it doesn't even contribute $15. That's all
right, a free market will tell us that.

Thus, when a job is paid more than its actual
contribution such as through a minimum wage, the difference between wage and
contribution is mis-deployed into a less productive use than if it remained available
for other uses. This has a pair of deleterious effects onto the economy: it generally
steers resources away from uses that will enlarge society's wealth and it specifically
reduces employment, because if an employer must raise artificially many
employees' salaries (and note that this also puts upwards pressure on jobs at
or just above the minimum wage, which also must be raised in pay to
differentiate) with the same number of dollars, fewer jobs can be divided into
that sum.

Therefore, society becomes worse off. The economy grows
less because of mis-deployment, meaning fewer jobs and less wealth for all, as
well as spurs the need to cut jobs (perhaps by increased automation which is made
relatively cheaper) to afford the artificial increase (an ongoing real world example
illustrates this: California raised its minimum wage for fast food chains,
except for the very smallest and those with political connections, to $20 an hour
which has led to widespread
industry layoffs, higher
prices that have discouraged business, and closed
locations). "Living wages" too often means no wages, and the resulting
unemployment increases the strain on government transfer payments and encourage
crime.

Young seemed blissfully unaware of all of this,
and at that panel meeting only Republican John Atkins, if weakly,
disputed his assertions. Eventually,
a proposal including only parish employees advanced in April; Young originally had
wanted it to apply to contractor employees as well. When it finally hit the
calendar last month, all
present commissioners, even Atkins, idiotically voted for it.

Fortunately, the damage was restricted. Caddo
employs few people below that wage level, so the negative impact would be
minimal. The problem is now there's talk of extending the level to contractors,
which would produce a virus much more widespread and economically lethal. Costs
to complete capital outlay projects in particular would increase significantly,
costing taxpayers more and/or reducing the number of projects pursued.

To afford these higher costs may be one reason why
the parish looks
to roll forward tax millages at its meeting next week. If so, by reaching
into citizens' pocketbooks with increased taxes to pay for this drains the
local economy relatively, hampering its economic development and consequently
depresses employment and wealth.

Hopefully, enough commissioners will shake
themselves out of a seemingly self-induced economic illiteracy to halt any
further expansion to the damage already done, if not reverse the previous
ordinance.

Jake Sullivan is in China on his first official visit since his appointment as national security adviser and is expected to meet with Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, to help clarify "misperceptions" and avoid "competition" from "veering into conflict," according to the administration.Within this framework, the Sullivan-Wang meeting is expected to cover a range of issues, from thorny areas of difference, such as Taiwan and trade, to bilateral cooperation initiatives building upon agreements made at last November's Biden-Xi San Francisco summit, according to a State Department briefing on Friday. Meanwhile, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in its own briefing that Beijing will lay out "serious demands on issues related to the Taiwan question, the right to development, and China's strategic security" during the meeting, which is expected to take place through Thursday. Beijing's stress on the Taiwan issue does not come as a surprise, given its strong reactions to Taiwan's newly elected president Lai Ching-te's controversial inauguration speech, as well as Washington's $8 billion military aid package to Taiwan. Following Lai's election, the Chinese government threatened to seek the death penalty for "diehard" Taiwan independence "separatists" in China. Whether that threat actually materializes remains far from clear, but it certainly reflects heightened concerns about the issue in the Chinese government. While Taiwan is expected to be discussed at the summit, the conversations likely won't go beyond reaffirming existing positions on the matter.Michael Swaine, a senior fellow at the Quincy Institute, observes that the likeliness of these dialogues leading to substantive change is often hindered by both sides' inability to be forthcoming on their motivations or goals for future cooperation, especially on sensitive security issues. For example, "the issue of Taiwan and the continued lack of sufficient clarity on the intentions of both the U.S. and China clearly demonstrate a large risk that has yet to be managed by either side effectively to avoid future conflict," says Swaine. According to Swaine, "both sides are still heavily investing in military capabilities to presumably deter the other, without providing durable and credible assurances of each side's continued fealty to the original understanding that provided peace across the Taiwan Strait for decades: for Beijing, peaceful unification as a first priority, and for Washington, the One China policy." Swaine added: "Without meaningful progress in reinforcing such mutual reassurances, the two sides will likely continue to struggle to conduct a truly strategic dialogue for defining what a stable, constructive pattern of peaceful coexistence, competition, and cooperation should look like over the long term."Friday's background press briefing hinted that rather than aiming for narrowing differences on big issues such as Taiwan, Washington might intend to focus on more specific, smaller-scale subjects covered at the Biden-Xi San Francisco summit — e.g., improved risk management and safety for artificial intelligence, improving military-to-military communications, and counternarcotics cooperation. While strengthening communications appears to be part of the agenda, there is no indication that it will produce any progress towards institutionalized, persistent bilateral strategic dialogues, nor is it apparent that doing so would be the goal of the meeting for either side. Both sides have expressed a desire for improved communications, and this meeting is a further manifestation of those intentions. Nonetheless, the timing of the meeting just before the election is worth noting. The Biden administration is essentially looking at one of its few remaining opportunities to solidify its self-proclaimed policy successes in East Asia — at the center of which is an "intense yet managed" competition with China. In doing so, the Biden administration might be seeking to both protect the Democratic Party's electoral position, and set a basis for a China policy which the next administration, whether under Harris or Trump, can build on. "The Biden administration inherited a set of antagonistic but poorly systematized policies on China from the Trump administration," says Quincy Institute acting East Asia director Jake Werner. "It kept almost all of those in place and made them stronger. But administration officials want to restrict China without starting a war, so they also restarted talks. One goal here is to guard against a new spiral toward conflict should Trump return to the presidency." Both Washington and Beijing have an incentive to seek closer communications during the upcoming U.S. election to reduce the fallout and misperceptions from heightened anti-China rhetoric aimed at the U.S. domestic audience. Such misperceptions in 2020 led to Chinese concerns that the U.S. was preparing to attack China during the 2020 election, which obviously didn't happen. Meetings like this one can be valuable for gaining clarity on policy and reasserting the desire of both sides not to provoke conflict. However, there is a risk of complacency if talks continue to avoid the underlying drivers of tension. "The pressures are building up," Werner says. "The U.S. and China should be discussing the zero-sum forces pushing them toward conflict now. Because when a crisis comes, it will be too late."Consistent high-level meetings like these need to create more opportunities to confront the issues dragging the two nations toward conflict. Time is running out before the end of the Biden administration, however, leading experts to think that the chances for moving any of these dialogues forward in any meaningful way are fairly low..

Understanding the intentions of a potential adversary is one of the most important yet most difficult challenges that any statesman faces. Underestimating a state's aggressive intent can discourage the prudent defensive preparations necessary to deter a war, as happened in the prelude to World War II. Overestimating it can produce a cycle of increasingly threatening military measures that spirals into a conflict neither side has sought, as happened in the run up to World War I. Finding the sweet spot between these poles is critical in dealing with Russian intentions toward NATO, which is celebrating its 75th anniversary this week at a summit meeting in Washington. Getting the balance between deterrence and diplomacy right is particularly important given Russia's massive arsenal of nuclear weapons, which makes the stakes of any descent into direct conflict between Russia and NATO potentially existential. But to judge from NATO rhetoric, no such delicate balance is required: the Russia challenge is regarded as a modern reprise of Nazi Germany's aggression, and the chief danger facing the alliance is thought to be the temptation to appease and thereby invite further Russian conquest. Hence President Biden's recent assertion that if the Russian military is not stopped decisively in Ukraine, it will "move on to Poland and other places." Does Russia in fact harbor intentions of military conquest against NATO member states? Given the caution Putin has exercised so far in the Ukraine war in avoiding direct attacks on NATO members, the answer is probably no. And there is a very understandable reason for this caution. As my colleagues Anatol Lieven and Mark Episkopos and I point out in a new Quincy Institute brief, one does not have to delve very deeply into the conventional military balance between Russia and NATO to realize that the Russian military would be badly outmatched in any war with NATO and would have good reason to believe that an attack on any individual NATO member would quickly turn into a conflict with the alliance as a whole. As the Quincy brief explains, "NATO has a greater than three-to-one advantage over Russia in active-duty ground forces. … The alliance has a ten-to-one lead in military aircraft and a large qualitative edge as well, raising the possibility of total air superiority. At sea, NATO would likely have the capacity to impose a naval blockade on Russian shipping, whose costs would dwarf current economic sanctions. While Russia has clear superiority over individual NATO states, especially in the Baltics, it is extremely unlikely it could exercise this advantage without triggering a broader war with the entire NATO alliance." This assessment is based on more than a simple order of battle comparison between Russian and Western militaries. In actual combat, the Russians have struggled mightily to subdue a much less formidable Ukrainian military under much more favorable conditions than they would face in any war with NATO, where they would have longer supply lines, less familiarity with terrain and local conditions, and a decided disadvantage in military technology, particularly in air and naval forces. To imagine that Russia would initiate a war with NATO when it has shown little ability to conquer, let alone occupy and govern, the vast bulk of Ukrainian territory is to impute a degree of irrationality to the Kremlin well beyond what it has demonstrated to date. This analysis is also consistent with Russia's rhetoric. Moscow has repeatedly denied any plans to attack NATO territory, nor does it have any ostensible reason to do so, in sharp contrast to Ukraine, which it has long regarded as central to Russian history and culture and where it has long feared the possibility of a NATO military presence. "Russia has no reason, no interest — no geopolitical interest, neither economic, political nor military — to fight with NATO countries," Putin said in late 2023. "Their statements about our alleged intention to attack Europe after Ukraine [are] sheer nonsense," he claimed in early 2024. To argue that Russia probably has neither cause nor capability to invade a NATO state is not to say that the risk of war between Russia and the West is insignificant, however. Just the opposite. Russia's conventional military inferiority is likely to result in greater reliance on its nuclear arsenal to deal with the perceived threat from NATO, putting the continent's security on hair-trigger for the first time since the Treaty on Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces went into force in the mid-1980s. Moreover, Europe features a number of potential battlegrounds where a new crisis between Russia and the West could flare, including Belarus, Moldova, the Balkans, Georgia, and Kaliningrad.
NATO's powerful military deterrent cannot bring stability to Europe unless it is paired with diplomacy aimed at forging a mutually acceptable settlement in Ukraine and reestablishing rules of the game that help to avoid or manage new crises and prevent tensions between Russia and NATO from spiraling out of control. Otherwise, we are headed neither toward a stable division of Europe nor toward a premeditated Russian invasion of a NATO state, but rather, as we point out in our new brief, toward a new period of precarious European instability: "a renuclearized and volatile hybrid confrontation between a West that is less united and self-confident than it appears and a Russia that sees its stakes in this confrontation as existential and will, therefore, have incentives to exploit and exacerbate internal Western vulnerabilities."
To avert this outcome, NATO leaders need to be worrying less about repeating the mistakes of Neville Chamberlain and more about why Europe's leaders sleepwalked into World War I.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi literally embraced Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow this week. Not just once, but a number of times, and in front of cameras.It provided for a lot of colorful optics and press speculation, suggesting that the two were trying to send a message about their bilateral relations to the rest of the world. But what were they trying to say? Let's examine.At first, Russia seemed an unlikely destination for Modi's first foreign visit since India's national elections granted him a third term and continued success for his Bharatiya Janata party. But the Russian daily newspaper Kommersant soon promoted Modi's visit as not only a boon to both countries, but as an important diplomatic victory for Moscow: "While the U.S. and its allies discuss military issues countering Moscow's [interest]," the paper declared, "one of the informal leaders of the Global South will be reaching agreement with the Russian president on general steps for bilateral cooperation and how to strengthen international security." According to reports, the two sides discussed strengthening and deepening military ties between the two countries and partnership in the atomic energy sector, among other issues. Modi also raised the necessity to end the fighting in Ukraine. "Bombs and rockets do not secure peace," Modi said according to Kommersant, adding, "therefore we need to give accent to dialogue, and dialogue is necessary" — comments indicating that Modi may be trying to personally get involved in peace negotiations. Russian and Indian geopolitical ties consist of several components, first of which is their respective Global South roles. India, like many members of this club, has maintained an unaligned position on Russia's invasion of Ukraine but reportedly believes a resolution to the "conflict cannot be achieved through military means alone." Such "neutrality" has helped Russia attain positive soft power and reputational benefits that aid Russia's expansion of trade and favorable political arrangements with many countries in the Global South as the war in Ukraine continues.Bilaterally, this position has allowed Russia and India to continue expanding their energy trade and India to benefit from lower prices from Russian fuel. For example, pre-Ukraine war India imported almost no Russian oil. But since Western countries imposed oil sanctions on Russia at the end of 2022, India has become the second biggest importer of Russian oil, after China.Currently, trade is almost all one-way as India produces little that Russia wants, and the rupee is not a convertible currency. According to the Indian foreign secretary, trade between India and Russia reached a record $65.7 billion in the 2023-2024 financial year, but Indian exports to Russia (pharmaceuticals, chemicals, electrical and mechanical equipment, iron and steel) totaled a mere $4.26 billion, versus imports from Russia which were $61.44 billion. During the meeting this week both sides agreed that their goal is to increase total trade to over $100 billion by 2030. However, the existing trade deficit continues to make India a bit uneasy, and it is expected Modi will try to get Russia to increase future imports. A second component of the Russia-India relationship is China. Given its strong distrust of Beijing over ongoing border tensions, India was clearly unnerved by the deep support exhibited by Xi and Putin for one another during Putin's visit to China in May. Moscow's increased reliance on China militarily and politically is a concern to India, too, given the fact that India remains heavily reliant on Russian produced arms and hardware for its own defense. Moreover, India does not share the exuberance Moscow does for BRICS expansion or for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Such moves pose a risk to India's continued outreach to the West via participation in the G20. In fact, Modi did not attend last week's SCO meetings in Astana, Kazakhstan. Delhi does not support China's Belt-Road Initiative, either, preferring the North-South Corridor which leaves out China. At the G20 summit, India also announced the new India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) corridor project together with Saudi Arabia that would link India's markets, via the Middle East and Israel, to Europe — excluding both China and Russia. From a geopolitical perspective, Modi likely recognizes the opportunities for India to build on the progress that Putin's visits to North Korea and Vietnam have created between China and Russia. India would prefer these two countries under Russia's influence than China.A third component of Russian and Indian ties is the United States. Until recently, U.S.-India bilateral relations had been improving. However, the State Department recently included India on its list, along with Russia, as a "Country of Particular Concern" regarding religious freedom. India responded critically, calling it "propaganda against India." Meanwhile, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said that India's relations with Russia impede Indo-American technology cooperation, a statement that India could easily view as meddling in its sovereign affairs. Therefore, the timing of Modi's visit could be a signal to Washington that India has global options outside of the American-led orbit. Putin would clearly not object to this message.It will be interesting to see what deliverables emerge from the visit. The Russo-Indian relationship is clearly an incredibly important one for both countries in the present and the long-term future. However, it is also a relationship that must balance sovereign interests with varying partners and enemies. Although it has been revealed that the two sides discussed their thoughts on a Ukraine solution, India, with its commitment to ending the war through enhanced diplomacy, could prove to be a trusted and valued partner, if not an acceptable broker in any future negotiations.

Either by legal action or election results, the run
of politicization of science that has marked the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency's regulatory regime on emissions looks to wither away, bringing relief
to a major Louisiana industrial concern punished for political reasons.

As of the middle of
last week, things weren't looking great for Denka Performance Elastomers in
LaPlace, the country's only producer of neoprene. For
over a decade, Denka and its predecessor have been in the crosshairs of the
EPA that alleges production of neoprene emits too high levels of chloroprene
that supposedly causes cancer. The EPA has tried to impose emission strict
standards even as the company has instigated a huge decrease in these amounts.

That battle escalated in a rule proposed in April
and made final in May that broadly changes the emission regime, but specifically
for Denka creates a level that the company has said is impossible to meet by an
Oct. 15 deadline. It has gone to court to suspend this implementation.

A central facet of the appeal is that the EPA
relied upon questionable
research that more valid study showed wildly overestimated the level at which
chloroprene emission becomes harmful. To back this up, analysis of employees at
the facility, who sometimes encounter much higher amounts than the presumed
level for extended periods, in fact showed below average cancer rates. Moreover,
in the most concentrated area of emissions by Denka and others, St. James and
St. John the Baptist Parishes, the latest (2015-19)
data show a below state average rate for all cancers in these areas and below
that of some other nearby parishes, confirming yet another data point against the
fiction of a "cancer alley" running the course of the Mississippi River from
Baton Rouge to New Orleans.

But the EPA has disregarded these data contradicting
its position because of politicization of the issue, first under the Democrat
Pres. Barack
Obama Administration, and now on steroids under the Democrat Pres. Joe Biden
Administration. Passing on massive costs, if not forcing the closure of, Denka
has been on the front lines as a proxy for racially-based and extremist environmentalist
issue preferences.

The two came together most notoriously a couple of
years ago when the Biden EPA tried to put Denka and other large emitters front
and center as propagators of "environmental racism," or the myth that pollution-intense
producers intentionally were situated nearest areas of disproportionately
minority residents as a means of having them bear unduly the supposed health costs
instead of whites. Not coincidentially, the main culprits typically fingered as
committing this emit large qualities of carbon that allegedly induce
catastrophic anthropogenic global warming.

Naturally, no quality data exist to prove any of
this, which prompted Republican then Atty. Gen., now Gov. Jeff Landry to fight
back on behalf of the state. And not long after he called the politicized EPA's
bluff, it
folded up the attempt.

But now the empire is back with this new rule, which
must be understood merely as an extension of this previous move. Landry has
fought back with his administration relaxing any state enforcement, but whether
it absolves Denka of technical noncompliance starting this fall if the firm
doesn't meet the promulgated level is uncertain.

For its part, Denka asked for an injunction
against the EPA applying the rule in the venue where regulatory disputes go,
the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia. Last week, a panel refused,
saying it hadn't made a strong enough case to forgo a trial of the full court, which
may not conclude until after the deadline.

Yet now the company has another arrow in its legal
quiver. A couple of days after this, the U.S. Supreme Court in Loper
Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo reversed the outcome of a past poorly-reasoned
precedential case, known as the "Chevron Doctrine" that gave regulatory
bureaucracies maximal deference in the absence of specificity in statute to
impose rules. Or, in
paraphrasing one analyst, instead of agencies starting with a regulatory program
and trying to come up with a plausible legal justification for it based on their
authorizing statutes, agencies will need to start from the statute's wording
itself and decide what is permissible.

More than almost any other regulatory agency, the
EPA will have to curtail its activism given the paucity of direct powers and
direction assigned by the statutes that empower it. Denka and/or Louisiana,
under the direction of GOP new Atty. Gen Liz Murrill, can invoke this new decision
to demonstrate that the EPA overstepped its authority in establishing the rule
in question.

And, of course, increasingly likely is electoral
relief as the odds increase Republican former Pres. Donald
Trump defeats Biden this fall. Under Trump, the EPA
acted more evenhandedly and transparently even
as it encountered politicized agency resistance (a course of action that leftist
academia, journalists, and special interests ironically tried to portray as
being itself politicized), and probably would return to that under another term
of his that very possibly would include modifying the rule in question.

Landry's team and Murrill need to support steadfastly
Denka as part of a larger campaign against federal government overreach with
its perverse and evidence-free regulatory agenda designed not with science in
mind, but political outcomes. Hopefully, a building "greenlash"
will put some more wind behind those sails, and when the dust settles Louisiana
may end up setting precedent for a better and more accountable EPA that regulates
with less politicization and more reasonableness.

As in the case of other bills that would expand the
governor's appointive powers, reform opponents produce stale if not gamey arguments
in the case of stalled SB 181.

The bill by Republican state Sen. Jay Morris would amend the
Constitution to give the governor more discretion in appointments to the State
Civil Service Commission and the Legislature the option to include more
appointments to executive branch line departments. At present, although the
bill drew a solid majority in a House of Representatives vote last
week, it fell eight votes short of the two-thirds requirement to pass along an
amendment to voters.

Currently, the seven-person Commission has six
gubernatorial appointees, in the form of the governor picking from nominations made
by six private university presidents, three each, serving staggered fixed
six-year terms. The only stipulation is that a president's nominees all must
come from different congressional districts. The final member is elected by members
of the state's classified civil service, who in fiscal year 2023
numbered around 34,500.

Morris brought the bill because he felt the present
setup made it too difficult to remove employees. For line departments – those
that report directly to the governor or a gubernatorial appointee not including
those run by other elected single and multiple executives – the governor appoints
fewer than 100, all at the top or next layer down of bureaucracy. This makes it
more difficult to implement policy, when having career civil servants at the
next layer down and further who may disagree with a governor's agenda and will
subversively try to sabotage it.

The bill would let the Legislature unlock more of
these senior positions in the civil service – which doesn't cover nearly 25,000
higher education and health care employees, plus many others working for
various boards and commissions or other elected and appointed officials who
along with the governor's line appointees are considered part of the unclassified
service, as well as excepting the state police who have their own civil service
system – so that a governor can make appointments. Presently, only the
Commission can perform this unlocking.

It also would let the governor select three of the
six at-large commissioners from all of the nominations and three without that
input, and implement this with transitional procedures that would reduce terms
to four years and limits from three to two terms, with the governor –
practically speaking, within the term of GOP Gov. Jeff Landry – having the
ability to reassign term lengths over the rest of his term that would speed up
his ability to make nominations. They still would have fixed terms and have to
meet the geographical distribution requirement.

Shaking up the Commission this way could wrestle
it out of a lethargy that continues to impede quality service provision to
taxpayers, as this addresses another aspect of the employment-for-life-without-ghastly-behavior
dynamic embedded in the civil service generally: the inability to rid the
classified system of subpar employees regardless of what level at which they work.
Way back in the Republican former Gov. Bobby Jindal Administration, he made
efforts to reform the system in pay and performance ratings, only to have the
Commission, which has approval power over such matters, water
these down that dramatically reduced their effectiveness in producing more
responsive bureaucracy.

One terrible consequence of this has been the continuing
shockingly low involuntary separation rate in Louisiana's civil service, which
in FY 2023 numbered only 131 or less that 0.4 percent of the classified work
force (another 43 resigned on the heels of disciplinary proceedings). It's hard
to believe about 99.5 percent of such employees work so well as to avoid
dismissal, which is a consequence of laws and regulations designed to protect
employees from arbitrary/political firings but which are tilted so far in that
direction that taxpayers suffer through the resulting reduced service level.

Giving a governor a substantial minority of unmediated
Commission selections – and recognize that most states have direct
gubernatorial appointments to their Commission equivalents, with none involving
intermediaries like private college presidents – hardly seems like a radical
change especially as the governor cannot replace them mid-term. Perhaps that's
why the arguments
against the bill come off as uninformed if not terribly naïve.

As
in the case of the bill now heading to Landry's desk that changes a similar
system with the Board of Ethics, the unreformed system overweighs the influence
of New Orleans-area presidents and it blindly assumes, contrary to reality,
that these presidents are not themselves politicians of their own kinds with
political agendas that inevitably seep through in their nominations. It's politically
ignorant to assume their intervention entirely, or even majorly, sanitizes
politics out of civil service administration; as any scholar of public administration
will tell you, history shows politics cannot be separated from administration, so
it's just a matter of whose politics are filtered into administration.

Nor should the two be separated completely. All public
sector administrative superstructures have to find a balance in responsiveness
versus responsibility, or the ability to carry out efficiently service delivery
as intended by officials elected by the people by placing qualified people in
government jobs without interference from elected officials beyond faithfully
carrying out their policy. It's never attained, not even semi-closely, by any
government and always sacrificing responsiveness, but in Louisiana's case the
ossification is especially stultifying. Breathing in a little responsiveness
would improve matters, which argues for the Legislature in the next couple of
days sending SB 181 to the people for a vote. 

Controversy over an endorsement of elementary and secondary
education options stoked by Louisiana's political left and its fellow travelers
serves as a reminder that they cannot tolerate invitations to open, comprehensive,
and fact-based inquiry in the education process, a state of affairs only now
being corrected.

Earlier this week,
Superintendent of State Education Cade Brumley announced a partnership with the
web content producer PragerU.
Founded by opinion columnist Dennis Prager, its materials provide primers on
issues of the day, and has resources dedicated to educational dissemination from
kindergarten to 12th grade. PragerU holds itself out as presenting information
as an alternative to leftist paradigms that frequently plague education that
completely ignore contrary information questioning their validity, giving
students an incomplete picture that serves more to indoctrinate than to educate
that PragerU materials seek to overcome.

Mirroring arrangements in several others states,
PragerU will make easily accessible to Louisiana educators material congruent with
meeting state standards adopted at the beginning of this now-concluding
academic year. PragerU was chosen because it has such material. Note that its
content doesn't replace core instructional material, which is determined
by local education agencies and not the state, nor is it required for use
in state classrooms.

The howls heard from the left after the announcement
in actuality trace back three years to when it was defeated in its attempt to
force "action civics" into the periodic revision of social studies standards
for state schools, an approach that deemphasizes acquisition of impartial factual
knowledge and its analysis in favor of guided discussion open to following an
agenda that then becomes translated into action outside the classroom. While
proponents at first seized the initiative, Brumley and others eventually
sidelined that approach in favor of one organized around the theme of American
exceptionalism and how the pursuit of liberty has shaped that, where students
learn historical facts and, by their high school years, begin to explore to
what degree the ideals upon which the country was founded and developed have
been realized and can evaluate and explicate viewpoints concerning that.

This, of course, drove crazy the more committed
leftist ideologues in public education, who must have cringed or even stroked
out when they read in Brumley's introductory letter to the standards
that they illustrated "how the United States has become the greatest country in
the history of the world," which "teach our students to appreciate the majesty
of our country and their obligations as citizens to safeguard America's
founding principles," and finished with quotes from Republican former Pres. Ronald
Reagan. Thus, this learning is the basis on which students henceforth are
tested from which school and district accountability scores are computed and the
basis on which pupil progression and diploma awarding are determined.

So, as PragerU content emphasizes the same sentiments,
it's entirely logical to hold it out as a resource, which elicited leftist outrage
because it challenges the stranglehold the left tries to maintain over
education. Never forget that the left cannot countenance such challenges because
it knows its version of things has serious factual and analytical problems that
become obvious when challenged, so it must do everything it can to delegitimize
any contrary view to disqualify it as a challenger.

Therefore, naturally enough, from the left arises bogus
claims that PragerU content isn't factual, when in reality when analyzed such charges
equate opinionated but factually sustainable views with error merely
because they disagree with the preferred narrative. And that exercise is entirely
hypocritical because of the enormous amount of inaccurate/biased material the
left encourages for insertion into public education over which it raises no
concerns.

In several cases, leftists not only didn't raise
alarms over such propaganda entering schooling, but advocated for it. A popular
textbook – it's unknown in how many Louisiana schools it's used – by a social
activist on the left disguised as a historian is riddled
with inaccuracies and books similar to it in tone and lack of factual care an
organization
pushed for dissemination in Louisiana in response to the new social studies
standards. Criticized
heavily for similar shortcomings is the notorious 1619 Project – whose tone
is almost the polar opposite of the new standards – which again may have been
taught in Louisiana schools. And, where was the outcry when a teacher union
began campaigning for school
libraries to adopt the highly-biased NewsGuard rating system, now under
legal trouble for censorship activities – and again, with an unknown number
of Louisiana schools allowing it in?

Understand that this current rant – which went so
far as to have the Democrat chairman of the Senate and
Governmental Affairs Committee state Sen. Cleo Fields, without any legal authority
to do so, thereby abusing his panel's power of reviewing executive appointees,
call in Brumley
for a closed-door hearing (the committee vets single executive appointees,
but the superintendent
is appointed by the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education without Senate
approval) over the matter – comes as a tantrum as part of the grieving process
of the left, triggered by its inability to present policies that a healthy
majority of Louisiana support that include social studies education. It
believes its own ideology that opposition to it is illegitimate, and it can't wrap
its head around the fact that its agenda is discarded and without power.

Let these children throw their fit, while the adults get on with the
business those displaying these histrionics neglected for so long.

It's going to take more than just a big election
cycle win for conservative voters to steer Louisiana government from its
liberal populist pathology, a recent struggle over welfare spending shows.

It always starts the same way. Something unusual,
such as the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic, occurs that leftist interests seize
upon to leverage into government action and new expenditures. Then after a point
it's declared the new benefit needs to be made permanent, and conservative
policy-makers too often capitulate.

Liberals understand fully that a substantial
proportion of the public suffers from addiction to government largesse, that
once the benefits start flowing many want hit after hit without end. One of the
Leninist foundations on which today's political left is built is the principle
that what is its is its forever, while whatever policy space its opponents
occupy is always up for grabs.

In
this instance, as part of the pandemic response the federal government
began paying an extra $40 per month per child per family per month for three
months in the summer as an extension of school meal programs, which has come to
be called called Summer EBT. Unwisely, Washington Democrats as well as enough
Republicans decided to make it a permanent feature to which states could apply
starting this year.

Never
mind that multiple programs already exist that perform this function for
decades. Never mind as well that these alternatives do it better at lower cost.
Never mind also that doling out straight cash benefits this way is the method most
prone to fraud, error, and inducing the least healthy eating habits.

Never mind that qualifying families already
receive several hundred dollars per month in food subsidization. Never mind
that if there really were some hunger crisis, despite these expensive existing gifts,
that the extra money could be channeled through one of the existing superior
programs for delivery. Never mind that especially this delivery method only discourages
self-sufficiency, specifically in regarding food provision programs in Louisiana,
that disproportionately produces overconsumption and waste within the target
population.

Republican Gov. Jeff Landry and his
Secretary of Children and Family Services David Matlock initially wisely
resisted calls to join in, which would require an estimated $3.6 million or so
state annual match – plus several millions of more millions of dollars in
software upgrades – to catch an estimated $71 million in federal money, out of
billions to be spent nationally in every state. They understood that a program
that would address inefficiently and poorly an object of public policy that
would have considerable detrimental side effects would end up costing Louisiana
taxpayers tens of millions of dollars a year, for as even if only a small
portion came directly out of their pockets in state taxes, from them the
federal government would fleece the remainder, directly or through piling on additional
national debt now standing at $34 trillion or over 121 percent of gross domestic
product.

But, apparently, not anyone, including usually
staunch conservatives, understood this in the Louisiana Senate. Recently, senators voted unanimously
(with five absent) to ask Landry to commit to Summer
EBT. The measure now lies in the House for consideration, whose members also
don't seem to get it as they voted unanimously for a budget to which they added
Summer EBT administrative costs, and in a form where Landry cannot deploy a
line-item veto to strip that funding. The budget's sponsor GOP state Rep. Jack McFarland –
chairman of the apparently-dormant Louisiana Conservative Caucus that claims a
mantle of fiscal conservatism, no less – has been the most outspoken supporter of
the program in the chamber.

All because, it seems, even die-hard Louisiana
conservative legislators just can't get off the smack, especially when it's close
to "free." Ironically, a House bill wending
its way through the legislative process would prohibit state and local
governments and their employees from referring to government benefits as "free,"
yet legislators, even the most conservative, appear to have no problem in accepting
federal largesse for doling out as long as they have to put little down on it,
regardless of how poorly and perversely it addresses a public policy goal.

So, Landry
has thrown in towel over this obstinacy and now intends to apply for the funds.
It's no surprise that liberal Democrats in the Legislature would want to expand
this way the size and power of government – and strengthen the bonds of beneficiary
dependency upon them that aids them in their quests for power and privilege – but
for conservative Republicans, to this point without any dissent, to go along
with this is a betrayal of principles they claim to follow.

There may be more layers to this. It may have been
a tradeoff with Landry for their support on other aspects of his agenda, but
that begs the question why it's something conservative legislators would value
in the first place. Do they really believe a few-strings cash benefit addition
will help? Do they really think this is the best use of a few million bucks
compared so many other far more legitimate needs? Do they really think that if
they didn't go along with this appeal to baser instincts within their constituencies
– the more "free" stuff showered on voters, the more voters like them and the better
their reelection chances – that this is an issue that effectively could be used
against them in future elections?

Maybe it all comes down to the liberal populist political
culture ingrained into state politics just so pervasively shaping every facet
of public policy (especially when it involves "the children"), even for self-proclaimed
conservatives. If so, it will be a long, extended haul for conservatives in the
public to flush away that destructive worldview.