Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Deep-seated slope failures are common features in the mountains of the Raca Unit, Magura Nappe of the Flysch Belt of Western Carpathians. Since they represent very complicated system, understanding of their evolution and triggers still remains unclear. We tried to provide a back-analysis of their development by using a finite difference code (FDM) of continua (Flac 4.0). We confirmed that such large mass movements could be triggered by water saturation of the bedrock in the three particular geological and geomorphic settings. Such situation could have been caused by heavy rainfalls in humid phases of the Holocene or permafrost melting in Late Glacial. The effects of faulting, very deep weathering of the bedrock, low geotechnical parameters of smectite-rich material and the local slope geometry have also been accounted for in numerical models, as well as the other triggering factors of slope instability. FDM modelled shear zones are in agreement with observations.

In the study of international relations, as indeed in all of the social sciences, reflections about the future are becoming increasingly numerous. They indicate frequently moreover a desire for systemization through recourse to rigourous techniques and procedures: the Delphi technique, the construction of scenarios, Systems analysis, operations research, decision matrices, graph theory, game theory, etc. This leads us to conclude often that the forecasting approach in international relations is undergoing a major quantitative and qualitative evolution.
We seek to show however in this analysis that, contrary to appearances, forecasting research in international relations is characterized above all today by great epistemological weakness and by a remarkable incoherence, and that it is not therefore, for the most part, equal to its pretensions. We will attempt to determine why this is the case and if this situation is likely to change. In doing so, we will seek to identify both the possibilities and the limits of forecasting in this field.

We have divided the evolution of bilateral cooperation between Canada and the French-speaking countries of Africa into three major phases. During the first phase, which lasted from 1961 to 1968, Canadian aid was slight and discontinuous. The second phase, from 1969 to 1975, was characterized by a remarkable increase of the CIDA 's activities. That period was specially influenced, on the one had, by the rudeau and Chevrier missions and, on the other hand, by the reconsideration of Canada's foreign policy during the 1970's. The third phase, from 1975 to 1981, was arked, among other things, by what one could call industrial cooperation, that is cooperation between « project-countries » and « program-countries ». We have tried to analyse the main characteristics of each of those three phases, while striving to « link » them to the socio-economic and political context of Canada and the French-speaking countries of Africa.

In recent years there has been an important shift in the pattern of Canadian food aid distribution towards a greater concentration on Africa. Recent projections call for increased transfers of food aid to Africa in the foreseeable future. Given the growing concern about the long-term contribution that food aid might make to increasing food sufficiency in Africa, this paper examines the concept of « developmental » food aid and its implications for Canadian food aid policy. First, the article discusses some of the problems that arise out of the provision of increased volumes of non-emergency food aid to Africa. Then, it examines the recent evolution of Canadian food aid policy with particular attention to some of the difficulties involved in implementing a strategy of providing « developmental » food aid to Africa on a long-term basis. The issues of policy dialogue, recipient selection, donor co-ordination, and food aid dependence are discussed respectively.

If we take a long-range view of competition regimes, we can document in the 20th century a case of major transformation. There has been a double evolution - away from cooperation and cartelization and towards competition on the one hand, from nationally bounded regimes to a globally interconnected regulatory sphere on the other. The antitrust tradition that emerged in the USA at the turn of the 20th century has gained significant and widespread influence after 1945, imposing itself in many parts of the world. The objective of this article is to retrace the process by which antitrust has gone from being a local legal rule to a nearly global structuring frame. We trace the fate of a local set of ideas turning into international politics and globally accepted principles. We also show that those global principles are subject to and interact with local politics - through the process of diffusion but also in their implementation.

Abstract.  This article conducts a theoretical and empirical analysis of the allocation of the full set of jobs – both cabinet and junior ministers – in the Prodi Government that formed after the Italian election of 1996. We first discuss theoretical arguments linking forecasts of government policy to the policy positions of both cabinet and junior ministers. We then estimate the policy positions of cabinet and junior ministers appointed to the Prodi cabinet, applying a new technique for computerized content analysis to the collected legislative speeches of each minister during the 1996–1997 parliamentary session. Having considered the face validity of these results, we then use them to explore to observable implications of the various theoretical approaches. We conclude that, in this case, there does appear to be systematic evidence linking both the allocation of government jobs and the evolution of spending patterns between departments to the policy positions of senior politicians.

Following the format established in Small Arms Survey 2004, this chapter provides an annual update of the authorized trade in small arms and light weapons. It looks in detail at the major reported exporters and importers, their trading partners, and the types of small arms exchanged. As in previous years, our understanding of the trade remains partial, for several reasons. Data on exports and imports is still limited for certain countries and certain types of small arms; it is at times difficult to interpret, so that many contradictions remain; and there is a time lag in reporting (for many of the calculations in this chapter, we have had to rely on data covering 2002). The Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer, introduced in Small Arms Survey 2004, is therefore an important tool for assessing and promoting transparency. This chapter contains an update of the Barometer, taking into account the evolution of national small arms export reporting in 2004. ; peer-reviewed

International audience ; The idea of a "public sphere" is the modern conception of society and within society of what constitute or should constitute the political. The history of modern democracy is the history of the various institutional arrangements designed to express in each nation the possibility or reality of a "public sphere". The idea of a "global public sphere" is the present extension and projection of basic Euro-American assumptions. As a by-product of economic globalization, the formation of a "global public sphere" leads to a paradox. The anticipated effect of globalization is an advance of democracy in countries or nations where economic growth is taking place. But this advancement is contradicted by the political reforms induced by the economic globalization process. Finally it does not take into account the mutation of the conception, organization and role of knowledge in the evolution of societies and in their relations.

International audience ; If we take a long-range view of competition regimes, we can document in the 20th century a case of major transformation. There has been a double evolution - away from cooperation and cartelization and towards competition on the one hand, from nationally bounded regimes to a globally interconnected regulatory sphere on the other. The antitrust tradition that emerged in the USA at the turn of the 20th century has gained significant and widespread influence after 1945, imposing itself in many parts of the world. The objective of this article is to retrace the process by which antitrust has gone from being a local legal rule to a nearly global structuring frame. We trace the fate of a local set of ideas turning into international politics and globally accepted principles. We also show that those global principles are subject to and interact with local politics - through the process of diffusion but also in their implementation.

This paper examines the evolution of the European Union (EU) Port Policy within a historical perspective. Analysing the changing aspects of the sectoral socio-economic context and the alterations of the institutional setting, the paper explains the slow start towards a European Port Policy (EPP), that lasted more than three decades, and then assesses why, and how, policy actors involved in the EU policy making have succeeded in carving out elements of a policy framework. The study chronicles the stages by which the EU has moved into the port policy field. Grounding on the analysis of the changing sectoral environment, the paper analyses the complex sequence of events, which have led either to legislative and political decisions or to output failures. As demonstrated by the historical analysis (1957-2004), policy integration is a dynamic, seemingly irreversible, process, which marked by the searching for a balance between liberalisation and harmonisation. ; peer-reviewed

This article examines the nature of the emerging regional economic regime in the Americas and argues that the dominant approach to economic governance is one defined by the assertion of U.S. power in the region and oriented toward distinctively U.S. interests and preferences. This has been clearly evident in the evolution of the Free Trade Area of the Americas but also, with the deceleration and fragmentation of that process during 2002 and 2003, in the growing prioritization of bilateralism. The leverage afforded by the bilateral negotiation of trade agreements acts to situate primary influence in shaping the rules that constitute the regional economic regime, and the primary functions associated with governing in this context, firmly within the agencies of the U.S. state. This essay therefore explores how the hegemonic power of the United States manifests itself in the substance of the hemispheric project and the shape of the economic regime associated with it.

International audience ; The idea of a "public sphere" is the modern conception of society and within society of what constitute or should constitute the political. The history of modern democracy is the history of the various institutional arrangements designed to express in each nation the possibility or reality of a "public sphere". The idea of a "global public sphere" is the present extension and projection of basic Euro-American assumptions. As a by-product of economic globalization, the formation of a "global public sphere" leads to a paradox. The anticipated effect of globalization is an advance of democracy in countries or nations where economic growth is taking place. But this advancement is contradicted by the political reforms induced by the economic globalization process. Finally it does not take into account the mutation of the conception, organization and role of knowledge in the evolution of societies and in their relations.

By using a synthetic cohort methodology, this paper contributes to the analysis of the evolution of female labour force participation in Chile over the last forty years. It decomposes the participation rate in terms of age, year and cohort effects. The results of the estimations show that the age effect significantly explains the participation rate. Cohort variables are also important, enabling the authors to identify cohort effects associated with both, the number of children and the level of schooling of the group. In turn, contemporary variables are relevant, in particular the cyclical component. All this indicates that the changes in the participation rate may be due in the first place to increases in the number of women in the age groups where the participation rate is higher. Secondly, the increase in the participation rate is due to effects that are associated with different behaviours in the succeeding cohorts of women; and, finally, contemporary variables seemingly have very small importance. (InWent/DÜI)

One of the hallmarks of the two Bush administrations' foreign and defense policies has been a growing rapprochement with India. Indeed, in June 2005 the U.S. Government signed a defense agreement with that country. In part, this rapprochement is driven by and coincides with India's increasingly visible role as a major Asian power. This monograph seeks to illuminate India's rising power and capabilities with regard to the key regions on its periphery: the Persian Gulf, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia. The author also considers the major issues pertaining to India's bilateral defense agenda with the United States. By revealing the dimensions of India's growing capabilities and interests, he also provides a strategic rationale for the development of the partnership to date and for its further evolution. Numerous analyses of current global trends point to the rise of India as a major transformation in world politics. ; https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1730/thumbnail.jpg

A contribution to the symposium, "Ten Years from Now," suggests that by 2015 political parties in Latin America will be making a concerted effort to include candidates of African & indigenous descent as a response to demands for racial justice. In addition, affirmative action programs will be implemented & textbooks will be rewritten to highlight the experiences of indigenous & black Latin Americans. Activists have challenged the commonly held view of Latin America as free from racial discrimination by revealing hidden economic & educational racial inequalities, disparities in the health system, & accepted language that denigrates blackness or indigenous identity. The new view has been reinforced by both domestic political elites & international institutions. Special attention is given to the impact of interest groups, the spread of democracy, migration, & globalization on the evolution of racial politics in Latin America & the Spanish Caribbean. It is concluded that race will play a vital role in future politics. 30 References. J. Lindroth