Suchergebnisse

Every year, more than 400 natural disasters hit the world. To assist those affected populations, humanitarian organizations store in advance emergency aid in warehouses. This PhD thesis provides tools for support decisions on localization and sizing of humanitarian warehouses. Our approach is based on the design of representative and realistic scenarios. A scenario expresses some disasters' occurrences for which epicenters are known, as well as their gravity and frequency. This step is based on the exploitation and analysis of databases of past disasters. The second step tackles about possible disaster's propagation. The objective consists in determining their impact on population on each affected area. This impact depends on vulnerability and resilience of the territory. Vulnerability measures expected damage values meanwhile resilience estimates the ability to withstand some shock and recover quickly. Both are largely determined by social and economic factors, being structural (geography, GDP, etc.) or political (establishment or not relief infrastructure, presence and strict enforcement of construction standards, etc.). We propose through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify, for each territory, influential factors of resilience and vulnerability and then estimate the number of victims concerned using these factors. Often, infrastructure (water, telecommunications, electricity, communication channels) are destroyed or damaged by the disaster (e.g. Haiti in 2010). The last step aims to assess the disaster logistics impact, specifically those related to with: transportation flows capacity limitations and destruction of all or part of emergency relief inventories. The following of our study focuses on location and allocation of a warehouses' network. The proposed models have the originality to consider potential resources and infrastructure degradation after a disaster (resilience dimension) and seek optimizing the equilibrium between costs and results (effectiveness dimension). Initially we consider a ...

Ante la situación de pandemia y alerta sanitaria, el Gobierno español decreta en marzo el estado de alarma para gestionar la situación de emergencia generada por la rápida propagación del COVID-19. Los efectos de este paquete de medidas afectan especialmente a los espacios de socialización, restringiendo el contacto, siendo la infancia y la adolescencia especialmente afectadas. El incremento de dinámicas familiares que ponen en riesgo a los menores ponen de manifiesto la necesidad de fortalecer el sistema de protección y prevención familiar. Se ha realizado un análisis de las principales medidas de prevención que se han llevado a cabo en España tanto a nivel autonómico como estatal. Los resultados han expuesto que buena parte de estas medidas son de carácter terciario, siendo el apoyo psicológico la medida más recurrente. En conclusión, se refleja la necesidad de aumentar las medidas de prevención primaria que reduzcan los riesgos infanto-juveniles a los que se ha expuesto a la infancia en el contexto familiar. ; In view of the pandemic and health alert situation, the Spanish Government decreed a state of alarm in March to manage the emergency situation generated by the rapid spread of COVID-19. The effects of this package of measures especially affect the spaces of socialization, restricting contact, with children and adolescents being especially affected. The increase in family dynamics that put minors at risk makes clear the need to strengthen the system of family protection and prevention. An analysis of the main prevention measures that have been carried out in Spain at both the regional and state level has been made. The results have shown that many of these measures are of a tertiary nature, with psychological support being the most recurrent measure. In conclusion, the need to increase primary prevention measures to reduce the risks to children and young people to which they have been exposed in the family context is reflected

Road traffic accidents have been listed in the top 10 global causes of death for many decades. Traditional measures such as education and legislation have contributed to limited improvements in terms of reducing accidents due to people driving in undesirable statuses, such as when suffering from stress or drowsiness. Attention is drawn to predicting drivers' future status so that precautions can be taken in advance as effective preventative measures. Common prediction algorithms include recurrent neural networks (RNNs), gated recurrent units (GRUs), and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. To benefit from the advantages of each algorithm, nondominated sorting genetic algorithm-III (NSGA-III) can be applied to merge the three algorithms. This is named NSGA-III-optimized RNN-GRU-LSTM. An analysis can be made to compare the proposed prediction algorithm with the individual RNN, GRU, and LSTM algorithms. Our proposed model improves the overall accuracy by 11.2–13.6% and 10.2–12.2% in driver stress prediction and driver drowsiness prediction, respectively. Likewise, it improves the overall accuracy by 6.9–12.7% and 6.9–8.9%, respectively, compared with boosting learning with multiple RNNs, multiple GRUs, and multiple LSTMs algorithms. Compared with existing works, this proposal offers to enhance performance by taking some key factors into account—namely, using a real-world driving dataset, a greater sample size, hybrid algorithms, and cross-validation. Future research directions have been suggested for further exploration and performance enhancement.

Социальная сущность рецидива преступлений, как правило, свидетельствует о большой общественной опасности личности преступника, устойчивых антисоциальных установках, а нередко и о сформировавшемся преступном профессионализме. В статье рассматриваются тенденции роста преступности лиц, ранее совершивших преступления, причины и условия рецидивной преступности. Раскрываются меры по пресечению данного негативного социального феномена, выявляются перспективные пути совершенствования уголовного законодательства. ; The social essence of relapse of crimes, as a rule, shows the great public danger of the criminal, steady antisocial installations, and often about the generated criminal professionalism. The article discusses trends in the growth of crime persons who have committed crimes, the causes and conditions of recidivism. Disclosed measures for the suppression of this negative social phenomenon, and identified promising ways of improvement of criminal legislation.

The French criminal law is characterised by a willingness to prevent recidivism. To give concrete expression to this will, security measures are implemented among which the secure detention. However, the secure detention is not an ordinary measure and gives rises to many debates which, in fact, take up old and recurrent controversies. This measure is based on the assumption that sexual and/or violent criminals show a disease which may suggest a risk of a second offence. As a result, by considering them as sick persons, the legislator asserts that they can be treated. Accordingly, medical care is advised as the only solution to prevent a second offence. However, this disease itself often induces the patient to refuse cares even if it is required for this disease. Under these circumstances, care is constrained by law but not imposed by threat. Yet, if the attempt fails, a measure which deprives of liberties will be effective, such as the secure detention, what threatens individual freedoms. The secure detention process raises many criminological, psychological, constitutional and conventional problems than the French law can't ignore. It's necessary to take them into account to prevent the secure detention turning into a phase-out measure to the detriment of its mains objective, which reflects the cause itself of the criminal French law, i. e. to prevent the second offence while helping criminals in the long run to become reintegrated in society. ; Le droit pénal français est marqué par une volonté de prévenir la récidive. Ce souhait se concrétise par l'introduction de mesures de sûreté dont la rétention de sûreté. Toutefois, la rétention de sûreté n'est pas une mesure de sûreté comme les autres, ce qui a conduit à de nombreux débats qui, en réalité, reprennent d'anciennes et récurrentes controverses. Cette mesure part en effet du postulat que les criminels sexuels et/ou violents présentent une maladie, maladie qui laisse présumer un risque de récidive. En les traitants comme des malades, le législateur considère ...

This study explores the relationship between individuals' risk tolerance and occupational injuries. We analyze data from a national representative survey of U.S. workers that includes information about injuries, risk tolerance, cognitive and noncognitive attributes, and risky behaviors. We measure risk tolerance through questions regarding individuals' willingness to gamble on their lifetime income. We estimate zero‐inflated count models to assess the role played by such measures on workers' recurrent injuries. We discuss some implications of our results for future research and occupational safety policies.Our results highlight the concurrent and changing role played by individual, work, and environmental factors in explaining recurrent incidents. They show that risk tolerance affects recurrent injuries, although not in the direction that proponents of the concept of proneness would expect. Our measure of risk aversion shows that individuals who are somewhat more risk tolerant have fewer recurrent injuries than those who are risk averse. But the estimated relationship is U‐shaped, not monotonic and, therefore, not easy to predict. At the same time, we find that individuals' "revealed risk preferences"—specific risky behaviors—are related to higher injury probabilities. Demanding working conditions, measures of socioeconomic status, health, and safety problems experienced by workers during their youth remain among the most important factors explaining the phenomena of recurrent injuries. So our results contribute also to the important debate about the relationship between health and socioeconomic status.

INTRODUCTION: The World Health Organization recommends TT surveys to be conducted in adults aged 15+ years (TT 15 survey) and certifies elimination of TT as a public health problem when there is less than 1 unknown case per 1,000 people of all ages. There is no standard survey method to accurately confirm this elimination prevalence threshold of 0.1% because rare conditions require large and expensive prevalence survey samples. The aim of this study was to develop an accurate operational research method to measure the total backlog of TT in people of all ages and detect when the elimination threshold is achieved. METHODS: Between July to October 2016, an innovative Community-based, Mapping, Mop-up and Follow-up (CMMF) approach to elimination of TT as a public health problem was developed and tested in Esoit, Siana, Megwara and Naikara sub-locations in Narok County in Kenya. The County had ongoing community-based TT surgical camps and case finders. TT case finders were recruited from existing pool of Community health volunteers (CHV) in the Community Health Strategy Initiative Programme of the Ministry of Health. They were trained, validated and supervised by experienced TT surgeons. A case finder was allocated a population unit with 2 to 3 villages to conduct a de jure pre-survey census, examine all people in the unit and register those with TT (TT all survey). Identified cases were confirmed by TT surgeons prior to surgery. Operated patients were reviewed at 1 day, 2 weeks and 3-6 months. The case finders will also be used to identify and refer new and recurrent cases. People with other eye and medical conditions were treated and referred accordingly. Standardised data collection and computer based data capture tools were used. Case finders kept registers with details of all persons with TT, those operated and those who refused to be operated (refusals). These details informed decision and actions on follow-up and counselling. Progress towards achievement of elimination threshold was assessed by dividing the number of TT cases diagnosed by total population in the population unit multiplied by 1,000. RESULTS: Narok County Government adopted both the CMMF approach and TT all survey method. All persons in 4,784 households in the four sub-locations were enumerated and examined. The total population projection was 29,548 and pre-survey census 22,912 people. Fifty-three cases of TT were diagnosed. The prevalence was 0.23% and this is equivalent to 2.3 cases per thousand population of all ages. Prior to this study, the project required to operate on at least 30 cases (excess cases) to achieve the elimination threshold of 1 case per 1000 population. CONCLUSION: The total backlog of TT was confirmed and the project is now justified to lay claim of having eliminated TT as a public health problem in the study area. TT all method may not be appropriate in settings with high burden of TT. Nomadic migrations affect estimation of population size. Non-trachomatous TT could not be ruled-out.

The French criminal law is characterised by a willingness to prevent recidivism. To give concrete expression to this will, security measures are implemented among which the secure detention. However, the secure detention is not an ordinary measure and gives rises to many debates which, in fact, take up old and recurrent controversies. This measure is based on the assumption that sexual and/or violent criminals show a disease which may suggest a risk of a second offence. As a result, by considering them as sick persons, the legislator asserts that they can be treated. Accordingly, medical care is advised as the only solution to prevent a second offence. However, this disease itself often induces the patient to refuse cares even if it is required for this disease. Under these circumstances, care is constrained by law but not imposed by threat. Yet, if the attempt fails, a measure which deprives of liberties will be effective, such as the secure detention, what threatens individual freedoms. The secure detention process raises many criminological, psychological, constitutional and conventional problems than the French law can't ignore. It's necessary to take them into account to prevent the secure detention turning into a phase-out measure to the detriment of its mains objective, which reflects the cause itself of the criminal French law, i. e. to prevent the second offence while helping criminals in the long run to become reintegrated in society. ; Le droit pénal français est marqué par une volonté de prévenir la récidive. Ce souhait se concrétise par l'introduction de mesures de sûreté dont la rétention de sûreté. Toutefois, la rétention de sûreté n'est pas une mesure de sûreté comme les autres, ce qui a conduit à de nombreux débats qui, en réalité, reprennent d'anciennes et récurrentes controverses. Cette mesure part en effet du postulat que les criminels sexuels et/ou violents présentent une maladie, maladie qui laisse présumer un risque de récidive. En les traitants comme des malades, le législateur considère ainsi qu'ils sont curables. En conséquence, il convient de mettre en œuvre des soins, seule solution pour prévenir une récidive. Cependant, cette même maladie conduit souvent le patient à refuser les soins pourtant nécessaires au regard de cette maladie. Dans ces circonstances, le soin est contraint, mais non imposé, par la menace, puis la mise en œuvre effective, d'une mesure privative de liberté qu'est la rétention de sûreté, ce qui constitue une menace pour les libertés individuelles. Le mécanisme même de la rétention de sûreté fait ainsi apparaître de nombreux problèmes criminologiques, psychologiques, constitutionnels, conventionnels que le droit français ne peut ignorer. Il est nécessaire de les prendre en compte pour éviter que la rétention de sûreté ne devienne une mesure purement éliminatrice au détriment de son principal objectif, qui reflète le fondement même du droit pénal français, à savoir prévenir la récidive tout en permettant à terme la réinsertion des criminels dans la société.

Purpose of the Study: The purpose of the study is to examine whether government health expenditures have an impact on the health sector performance in Nigeria for the period (1979-2019). Methodology: The study employs the expo facto research design. The annual time series data were sourced from World Development Indicators (WDI) and the Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for several years. The dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) estimation method is employed to measure the coefficient of the parameters to test the four hypotheses developed. Main Findings: The findings of the study indicate that capital health expenditure and recurrent health expenditures are positively related to the performance of the health sector proxy by life expectancy rate but statistically insignificant. However, capital health expenditure is statistically significant to life expectancy. Research Implication: It was recommended that priority need to be placed on government capital spending on health such as building and equipping of health centres in every community to enhance accessibility to health centres in Nigeria. The novelty of the study: There is a need for an adequate mechanism to be put in place by the health sector to check the stealing of public funds and punish those who misuse and divert such funds. This can promote the generation and prudent utilization of revenue to equip our various health centres ahead of eventualities like the COVID-19.

Nowadays, we are surrounded by electric appliances. Either at home by the washing machine, kettle, or oven, or work by the computer, cellphone, or printer. Such devices help us daily, but their popularization increased the energy consumption to concerning values. In an attempt to reduce energy consumption, governments started enforcing policies regarding energy education to teach homeowners how to reduce energy wastage on the demand side. One of those policies was the deployment of smart meters, which allow the consumer to know how much energy is being consumed at any given time through a display on the household energy meter. Even though this measure was well received, the studies show that the best results in energy conservation are obtained through real-time appliance level feedback. To get such feedback, one can either measure every outlet in a household, which is unviable for a broad deployment solution, or disaggregate the energy recorded by the smart meter. NILM or Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring is the name we give to the second option where we use the aggregated readings of a household to find the energy consumed by each appliance. There were many proposals to solve NILM ranging from HMMs to GSP, where deep learning models showed remarkable results, obtaining state-of-the-art results. With the intent to create a complete NILM solution, Withus partnered with the University of Aveiro and proposed this dissertation. The initial objective was to develop a machine learning model to solve NILM. Still, during the background analysis, we found the need to create a new dataset which led to the expansion of the initial proposal to include the dataset preprocessing and conversion. Regarding NILM, we proposed three new deep learning models: a convolutional neural network with residual blocks, a recurrent neural network, and a multilayer perceptron that uses discrete wavelet transforms as features. These models went through multiple iterations, being evaluated first in the simpler ON/OFF classification task and later ...

This work includes the history of Argentinian mapping policy based on four operations: imagine, measure, represent and reproduce the territory. Imagine, because the actors responsible for the production of geographical information imagined a national territory that was reflected in its mapping according to their expectations. One of the distinctive features of that imagination was the recurrent inclusion of spaces in which the State claimed sovereignty but did not have it effectively. Measure, because that imaginary representation of the territory was based on a programme of land curtailment which had no history and the results of which gave scientific arguments to support the territorial claims of the State. Represent, because mapping practices were conceived as strategies for scientific representation of the territory and, in that sense, were subject to criteria of legitimacy and validity in their production contexts. Replication because the image of the territory which resulted from those operations also served to spread a type of territorial policy of the State. This work, while analysing the cartographic productions of other organisations involved in the consolidation of the territory, focuses on the production carried out by the Military Geographic Institute, as this body launched Argentina's mapping cycle. Table of contents: Introduction — Chapter I — I.1. Presentation — I.2. Keys to rethink mapping — Chapter II — II.1. The nineteenth century military topographic offices — II.2. The topographic campaigns shall: new mapping methodologies — II.3. A new profession: State Cartographers — Chapter III — III.1. The Charter of the Republic: "the battle of the method" — III.2. Four building blocks for the plan: science, boundary, management and education — Chapter IV — IV.1. The uprisings: a selective look — IV.2. Alternative projects: the urgency of a map — IV.3. The boundaries of the original plan: redefining the Charter Plan and adapting it to national realities — IV.3.4. Topographical work: accelerating ...

In this article, the author researches the work of Bolsheviks authorities aimed at combating the epidemic of typhus during the first seizure of Kharkov province in January-June 1919. As a result, Zemstvo medical and sanitary organizations were eliminated, the amount of doctors decreased by half, drugs and means of disinfection were removed from pharmacies and hospitals by Bolsheviks` "Farmpod" and they became inaccessible to the civilian population. The Bolsheviks financed only 5% of the estimates of typhoid measures against typhoid, mobilized to the Red Army nursing staff and didn`t pay salaries to the rest, did not organize the work of the utilization plant, confiscated urban sanitary cars for military use. The number of typhoid insulators decreased by 10%, because of the lack of firewood, medicines, medical staff and services. The Bolsheviks' sanitary-epidemiological subdivisions copied the relevant district authorities, but were not funded, independent and lacked the staff. Patients with typhoid were expelled from hospitals and isolators in order to treat the Red Army soldiers instead, which led to a sharp deterioration of the epidemiological situation. Devoting all the resources to the military victory Bolsheviks authorities threw the local population of the Kharkov region to its fate during the unprecedented typhoid epidemic. As a result, at the half a year of Bolshevik power, from January to June 1919, the number of patients with typhoid in the Kharkov province increased by 65 times. The efforts of the Bolsheviks authorities to combat the typhoid epidemic proved extremely ineffective, the situation was stabilized by the restored Zemstvo sanitary-and-medical organization only after the retreat of the Red Army.

Статья посвящена проблемам изучения причин и условий совершения рецидивистами преступлений и основным мерам по предупреждению рецидивной преступности. Авторским коллективом подчеркивается, что существование рецидивной преступности обусловлено причинами и условиями, характерными для преступности в целом. Основные причины первичных преступлений действуют и при повторных преступлениях. Более того, повторные преступления усиливают стойкость антиобщественных взглядов, способствуют повышению уровня криминального профессионализма рецидивистов. Всю совокупность причин и условий рецидивной преступности можно подразделить на уголовно-политические, социально-экономические, правовые, организационно-управленческие, нравственно-психологические, медицинские и иные социальные факторы состояния и развития рецидивной преступности. Совершению повторных преступлений лицами, преступления которых остались нераскрытыми, невыявленными, в первую очередь способствует состояние безнаказанности за преступление и сознание реальной возможности остаться безнаказанным, и также недостатки в процессе исполнения наказаний или мер, их заменяющих. Для того чтобы более эффективно предупреждать преступления, совершаемые рецидивистами, необходимо знать причины рецидивной преступности и условия, ей способствующие. Предупреждение рецидивной преступности складывается из реализации комплекса мер общесоциального и специально-криминологического характера. ; Article is devoted to problems of studying of the reasons and conditions of commission by recidivists of crimes and the main measures for the prevention of recurrent crime. With a group of authors it is emphasized that existence of recurrent crime is caused by the reasons and conditions, characteristic for crime in general. The main reasons for primary crimes and for repeated crimes are similar. Moreover, repeated crimes increase firmness of antisocial views, promote increase of level of criminal professionalism of recidivists. The set of the reasons and conditions of recurrent crime can be subdivided into criminal and political, social and economic, legal, organizational and administrative, moral and psychological, medical and other social factors of a state and development of recurrent crime. Commission of repeated crimes by the persons which crimes remained unsolved, undetected, first of all is promoted by a condition of impunity for a crime and consciousness of real opportunity to remain unpunished, and also shortcomings of process of execution of punishments or measures that replacing it. For more effective prevention the crimes, that committed by recidivists it is necessary to know the reasons of recurrent crime and a condition. The prevention of recurrent crime consists of realization of a package of measures of all-social and speciallycriminological character.

Individual unemployment spells are frequently interrupted by short casual employment, by participation in active labour market policy (ALMP) measures or by periods outside the labour force. Such episodes end unemployment spells but afterwards the person gets often unemployed again, and the conventional statistics do not capture the actual length of the individual problem of being without a "real" job in the longer run. To better grasp this problem of repeated unemployment we analyse unemployment trajectories of individuals with weak links to the labor market in the longer run. For this purpose, we introduce the concept of "chronic unemployment" (CU). Our empirical analysis applies unique comparable and very detailed longitudinal register data to study the CU problem in Denmark, Finland and Germany. We find that chronically unemployed make up about one third of all unemployed in all three countries. This means that a substantial part of the unemployed has not gained a stable foothold in the open labour market for a long time. Individual factors strongly influence the probability of being chronically unemployed. CU becomes more common with age and decreases as the level of education increases. Although persistence in CU is highest in Germany, the country realizes higher transition rates into stable employment than the Nordic countries. Active labour market policy measures have a positive impact on the transition from chronic unemployment to non-subsidized employment, particularly wage subsidies in the private sector and occupational training and qualification. ; Phasen der Arbeitslosigkeit werden häufig durch kurze Zeiten der Beschäftigung, durch die Teilnahme an arbeitsmarktpolitischen (ALMP) Maßnahmen oder durch einen zeitweisen Rückzug vom Arbeitsmarkt unterbrochen. Solche Episoden beenden die Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer, aber danach wird die Person oft wieder arbeitslos. Das Problem, langfristig ohne "echten" Job zu sein, wird aber von herkömmlichen Statistiken nicht angemessen erfasst. Mit unserem Konzept der "chronischen Arbeitslosigkeit" können wir dieses Problem besser analysieren. Auf der Basis von vergleichbaren und sehr detaillierten amtlichen Längsschnittdaten untersuchen wir das Phänomen in Dänemark, Finnland und Deutschland. In allen drei Ländern machen chronisch Arbeitslose etwa ein Drittel aller Arbeitslosen aus. Individuelle Charakteristika haben einen großen Einfluss auf die Wahrscheinlichkeit, chronisch arbeitslos zu sein. In Deutschland verbleiben chronisch Arbeitslose am längsten in diesem Zustand. Trotzdem sind die Übergangsraten in eine stabile Beschäftigung in Deutschland höher als in den zwei nordischen Ländern. Aktive arbeitsmarktpolitische Maßnahmen wirken sich positiv auf den Übergang von der chronischen Arbeitslosigkeit in nicht subventionierte, nachhaltige Beschäftigung aus. Am effektivsten sind Eingliederungszuschüsse sowie berufliche Bildungs- und Qualifizierungsmaßnahmen.

Rachel K Voss,1 Tessa N Woods,1 Kate D Cromwell,1 Kelly C Nelson,2 Janice N Cormier1 1Department of Surgical Oncology, 2Department of Dermatology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA Abstract: Patients with thin, low-risk melanomas have an excellent long-term prognosis and higher quality of life than those who are diagnosed at later stages. From an economic standpoint, treatment of early stage melanoma consumes a fraction of the health care resources needed to treat advanced disease. Consequently, early diagnosis of melanoma is in the best interest of patients, payers, and health care systems. This review describes strategies to ensure that patients receive an early diagnosis through interventions ranging from better utilization of primary care clinics, to in vivo diagnostic technologies, to new "apps" available in the market. Strategies for screening those at high risk due to age, male sex, skin type, nevi, genetic mutations, or family history are discussed. Despite progress in identifying those at high risk for melanoma, there remains a lack of general consensus worldwide for best screening practices. Strategies to ensure early diagnosis of recurrent disease in those with a prior melanoma diagnosis are also reviewed. Variations in recurrence surveillance practices by type of provider and country are featured, with evidence demonstrating that various imaging studies, including ultrasound, computed tomography, positron emission tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging, provide only minimal gains in life expectancy, even for those with more advanced (stage III) disease. Because the majority of melanomas are attributable to ultraviolet radiation in the form of sunlight, primary prevention strategies, including sunscreen use and behavioral interventions, are reviewed. Recent international government regulation of tanning beds is described, as well as issues surrounding the continued use artificial ultraviolet sources among youth. Health care stakeholder strategies to minimize UV exposure are summarized. The recommendations encompass both specific behaviors and broad intervention targets (eg, individuals, social spheres, organizations, celebrities, governments). Keywords: melanoma, screening, early diagnosis, high-risk melanoma, recurrence, prevention