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This paper presents new data on the age structure of hospitalised SARI
(severe acute respiratory infection) patients, with or without COVID-19,
broken down by gender, place of infection, and region. The leading
hypothesis that COVID-19 deaths are overestimated despite the high share of
excess deaths was confirmed, bringing to light the important issue of the
demographic breakdown of the population at risk. Thus, the main reason for
the decreasing number of COVID-19 deaths is to be sought within the
exhausted demographic pool of the elderly population in 2020, when the
mortality rate was 19% higher compared to the previous five-year period
(2015-2019). Demographic disparities across regions are immense and
statistically explain the differences in the ?infected versus deceased?
ratio. The excess mortality in 2020 was unusually high, but the projected
value for 2020 based on the mortality pattern across age groups from 2015 to
2019 contributed up to one-third of the surplus. So, for one-quarter of
alleged COVID-19 deaths (roughly 600 out of some 3,300 in 2020), death was
expected to take place in 2020 anyway.

Following the outbreak of COVID-19, a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to contain the spread of the pandemic. Despite the recent reduction in the number of infections and deaths in Europe, it is still unclear to which extent these governmental actions have contained the spread of the disease and reduced mortality. In this article, we estimate the effects of reduced human mobility on excess mortality using digital mobility data at the regional level in England and Wales. Specifically, we employ the Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, which offer an approximation to the changes in mobility due to different social distancing measures. Considering that changes in mobility would require some time before having an effect on mortality, we analyse the relationship between excess mortality and lagged indicators of human mobility. We find a negative association between excess mortality and time spent at home, as well as a positive association with changes in outdoor mobility, after controlling for the time trend of the pandemic and regional differences. We estimate that almost 130,000 excess deaths have been averted as a result of the increased time spent at home. In addition to addressing a key scientific question, our results have important policy implications for future pandemics and a potential second wave of COVID-19.

Following the outbreak of COVID-19, a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to contain the spread of the pandemic. Despite the recent reduction in the number of infections and deaths in Europe, it is still unclear to which extent these governmental actions have contained the spread of the disease and reduced mortality. In this article, we estimate the effects of reduced human mobility on excess mortality using digital mobility data at the regional level in England and Wales. Specifically, we employ the Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, which offer an approximation to the changes in mobility due to different social distancing measures. Considering that changes in mobility would require some time before having an effect on mortality, we analyse the relationship between excess mortality and lagged indicators of human mobility. We find a negative association between excess mortality and time spent at home, as well as a positive association with changes in outdoor mobility, after controlling for the time trend of the pandemic and regional differences. We estimate that almost 130,000 excess deaths have been averted as a result of the increased time spent at home. In addition to addressing a key scientific question, our results have important policy implications for future pandemics and a potential second wave of COVID-19.

Following the outbreak of COVID-19, a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to contain the spread of the pandemic. Despite the recent reduction in the number of infections and deaths in Europe, it is still unclear to which extent these governmental actions have contained the spread of the disease and reduced mortality. In this article, we estimate the effects of reduced human mobility on excess mortality using digital mobility data at the regional level in England and Wales. Specifically, we employ the Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, which offer an approximation to the changes in mobility due to different social distancing measures. Considering that changes in mobility would require some time before having an effect on mortality, we analyse the relationship between excess mortality and lagged indicators of human mobility. We find a negative association between excess mortality and time spent at home, as well as a positive association with changes in outdoor mobility, after controlling for the time trend of the pandemic and regional differences. We estimate that almost 130,000 excess deaths have been averted as a result of the increased time spent at home. In addition to addressing a key scientific question, our results have important policy implications for future pandemics and a potential second wave of COVID-19.

We analyze the consequences of the decision of French government to maintain the first round of the municipal elections on March 15, 2020 on local excess mortality in the following weeks. We exploit heterogeneity across municipalities in voter turnout, which we instrument using a measure of the intensity of local competition. The results reveal that a higher turnout was associated with a significantly higher death counts for the elderly population in the five weeks after the elections. If the historically low turnout in 2020 had been at its 2014 level, the number of deaths would have been 21.8 percent higher than the one that was recorded. More than three quarters of these additional deaths would have occurred among the individuals aged 80 and above.

International audience ; Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, the effectiveness of such governmental measures in reducing the mortality burden remains a key question of scientific interest and public debate. In this study, we leverage digital mobility data to assess the effects of reduced human mobility on excess mortality, focusing on regional data in England and Wales between February and August 2020. We estimate a robust association between mobility reductions and lower excess mortality, after adjusting for time trends and regional differences in a mixed-effects regression framework and considering a five-week lag between the two measures. We predict that, in the absence of mobility reductions, the number of excess deaths could have more than doubled in England and Wales during this period, especially in the London area. The study is one of the first attempts to quantify the effects of mobility reductions on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.

International audience ; Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, the effectiveness of such governmental measures in reducing the mortality burden remains a key question of scientific interest and public debate. In this study, we leverage digital mobility data to assess the effects of reduced human mobility on excess mortality, focusing on regional data in England and Wales between February and August 2020. We estimate a robust association between mobility reductions and lower excess mortality, after adjusting for time trends and regional differences in a mixed-effects regression framework and considering a five-week lag between the two measures. We predict that, in the absence of mobility reductions, the number of excess deaths could have more than doubled in England and Wales during this period, especially in the London area. The study is one of the first attempts to quantify the effects of mobility reductions on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought forward myriad challenges to public policy, central of which is understanding the different contextual factors that can influence the effectiveness of policy responses across different systems. In this article, we explore how trust in government can influence the ability of COVID-19 policy responses to curb excess mortality during the pandemic. Our findings indicate that stringent policy responses play a central role in curbing excess mortality. They also indicate that such relationship is not only influenced by systematic and structural factors, but also by citizens' trust in government. We leverage our findings to propose a set of recommendations for policymakers on how to enhance crisis policymaking and strengthen the designs of the widely used underlying policy learning processes.

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought forward myriad challenges to public policy, central of which is understanding the different contextual factors that can influence the effectiveness of policy responses across different systems. In this article, we explore how trust in government can influence the ability of COVID-19 policy responses to curb excess mortality during the pandemic. Our findings indicate that stringent policy responses play a central role in curbing excess mortality. They also indicate that such relationship is not only influenced by systematic and structural factors, but also by citizens' trust in government. We leverage our findings to propose a set of recommendations for policymakers on how to enhance crisis policymaking and strengthen the designs of the widely used underlying policy learning processes.