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In this paper we evaluate the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impact s of strategies for conserving Colombia's rich natural capital endowment. Specifically, we consider Government program proposals for establishing Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES), implementing more sustainable silvopastoral systems and expanding habitat banking. We develop and apply the Integrated Economic - Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform linked with spatial Land Use Land Cover (LULC) and Ecosystem Services Modeling ( IEEM+ ESM) to shed light on the multi-dimensional impacts of these programs from the perspective of sustainable economic development and intergenerational wealth. Advancing the state-of-the-art in integrated economic-environmental modeling, our framework for the first time integrates dynamic endogenous feedbacks between natural capital, ecosystem services and the economic system to fully capture how changes in natural capital and ecosystem service flows affect the economy and vice versa. Our approach quantitatively models the economy, natural capital and ecosystem services as one integrated and complex system at a high level of spatial resolution across Colombia's 32 Departments. We demonstrate how valuing biodiversity in public policy and investment analysis can make the difference between an investment that is economically viable and one that is not. Without accounting for the value of biodiversity, the proposed PES and habitat banking programs are not economically viable. Including the value of biodiversity, both PES and habitat banking become strong investment propositions with a net present value of US$4.4 billion and US$4.9 billion, respectively. The economic and environmental benefits of enhancing Colombia's natural capital base and future ecosystem service supply are demonstrated and regionally differentiated, which provides a strong empirical evidence base to inform the spatial targeting of policies to maximize economic, environmental and social outcomes .

Cultural landscapes are valued for their landscape character and cultural heritage. Yet, these often low-intensity, multifunctional landscapes are at risk of disappearance. Understanding how cultural landscapes might change under alternative futures is important for identifying where to target actions towards persistence of cultural landscapes. This study therefore aims to identify past and future land use changes in the European Union's (EU's) cultural landscapes. To do so, we overlay past and projected plausible future land change trajectories with the spatial distribution of cultural landscapes in the EU. Our results highlight a clear co-occurrence of specific land change trajectories and cultural landscape types. Past and future urbanization and agricultural abandonment are the land use change processes most strongly affecting small-scale, low-intensity agricultural landscapes that are valued by society. De-intensification is overrepresented in landscapes with a low management intensity. Past intensification was overrepresented in small-scale landscapes with a high value to society, while future intensification might concentrate on landscapes with a low intensity. Typical cultural landscapes show a strong variation of changes under different scenario conditions in terms of future landscape change. Scenario analysis revealed that some of the threats to cultural landscapes are related to agricultural policies, nature policies and other spatial restrictions. At the same time, these policies may also alleviate these threats when properly designed and targeted by accounting for the impacts they may have on cultural landscapes. Considering cultural landscapes more directly in decisions to be made for the post-2020 Common Agricultural Policy period is needed, and could be achieved by a focus on landscape quality beyond the current focus on specific greening measures.

This work was financially supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation [grant no. 171911] and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [grant agreement no. 689,812] ('LandSense'). ; Peer reviewed ; Publisher PDF

The world's grasslands, both natural and managed, provide food and many non-provisioning ecosystem services. Although most grasslands today are used for livestock grazing or fodder production, little is known about the spatial patterns of grassland management intensity, especially at broad geographic scales. Using the European Union as a case study, we mapped mowing frequency as a key indicator of grassland management intensity. We used MODIS NDVI time series from 2000-2012 to map mowing frequency using a spline-fitting algorithm that detects up to five mowing events within a single growing season. We combined mowing frequency maps with existing maps of livestock distribution and grassland management frequency to identify clusters of similar grassland management intensity across Europe. Our results highlight generally high mowing frequency in areas of high grassland productivity, especially in Ireland, Northern and central France, and the Netherlands. Our analyses also show distinct clusters of similar grassland management, representing different grassland-management intensity regimes. High intensity clusters occurred particularly in western and southern Europe, especially in Ireland, in the northern and central parts of France and Spain, and the Netherlands but also in northern and southern Germany and eastern Poland. Low intensity clusters were found mainly in central and eastern Europe and in mountainous regions but also in Extremadura in Spain, Wales and western England (UK). Generally, our analyses emphasize the usefulness of jointly using satellite time series and agricultural statistics to monitor grassland intensity across broad geographic extents. Our maps allow for a new, spatially-detailed view of management intensity in grassland systems and may help to improve regionally targeted land-use and conservation policies.

Engagement with the natural environment and public enjoyment of access to farmland and woodland often takes the form of outdoor recreation. Numerous studies on landscape preferences of outdoor recreation have focused on individual characteristics and attitudes of recreation users. Although the importance of differences in user groups has been acknowledged, a clear distinction of archetypical user groups has not yet been made. This study presents spatial maps of landscapes' outdoor recreation potential throughout the EU based on the different landscape preferences of five archetypical outdoor recreation user groups. The resulting maps are based on spatial indicators for landscape characteristics identified through a literature review of landscape preferences and an expert workshop regarding the relative importance of those preferences. We find overlapping patterns of outdoor recreation potential for all user groups, as a result of similar preferences for elevation, cultural heritage and presence of specific flora and fauna. Areas with high recreation potential for multiple user groups are dominated by forest or mosaic land use and often concentrated in mountainous areas, showing the areas' multifunctional potential. The developed maps provide a synthesis of available information and data on the differential preferences and patterns for outdoor recreation in the EU. The differentiation of user groups enables stakeholders at different levels to develop sustainable landscape management strategies targeted at the demand for and supply of outdoor recreation opportunities.

The world's grasslands, both natural and managed, provide food and many non-provisioning ecosystem services. Although most grasslands today are used for livestock grazing or fodder production, little is known about the spatial patterns of grassland management intensity, especially at broad geographic scales. Using the European Union as a case study, we mapped mowing frequency as a key indicator of grassland management intensity. We used MODIS NDVI time series from 2000–2012 to map mowing frequency using a spline-fitting algorithm that detects up to five mowing events within a single growing season. We combined mowing frequency maps with existing maps of livestock distribution and grassland management frequency to identify clusters of similar grassland management intensity across Europe. Our results highlight generally high mowing frequency in areas of high grassland productivity, especially in Ireland, northern and central France, and the Netherlands. Our analyses also show distinct clusters of similar grassland management, representing different grassland-management intensity regimes. High intensity clusters occurred particularly in western and southern Europe, especially in Ireland, in the northern and central parts of France and Spain, and the Netherlands but also in northern and southern Germany and eastern Poland. Low intensity clusters were found mainly in central and eastern Europe and in mountainous regions but also in Extremadura in Spain, Wales and western England (UK). Generally, our analyses emphasize the usefulness of jointly using satellite time series and agricultural statistics to monitor grassland intensity across broad geographic extents. Our maps allow for a new, spatially-detailed view of management intensity in grassland systems and may help to improve regionally targeted land-use and conservation policies. ; Peer Reviewed

Measures of climate change adaptation often involve modification of land use and land use planning practices. Such changes in land use affect the provision of various ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, it is likely that adaptation measures may result in synergies and trade-offs between a range of ecosystems goods and services. An integrative land use modelling approach is presented to assess such impacts for the European Union. A reference scenario accounts for current trends in global drivers and includes a number of important policy developments that correspond to on-going changes in European policies. The reference scenario is compared to a policy scenario in which a range of measures is implemented to regulate flood risk and protect soils under conditions of climate change. The impacts of the simulated land use dynamics are assessed for four key indicators of ecosystem service provision: flood risk, carbon sequestration, habitat connectivity and biodiversity. The results indicate a large spatial variation in the consequences of the adaptation measures on the provisioning of ecosystem services. Synergies are frequently observed at the location of the measures itself, whereas trade-offs are found at other locations. Reducing land use intensity in specific parts of the catchment may lead to increased pressure in other regions, resulting in trade-offs. Consequently, when aggregating the results to larger spatial scales the positive and negative impacts may be off-set, indicating the need for detailed spatial assessments. The modelled results indicate that for a careful planning and evaluation of adaptation measures it is needed to consider the trade-offs accounting for the negative effects of a measure at locations distant from the actual measure. Integrated land use modelling can help land use planning in such complex trade-off evaluation by providing evidence on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services, different policy fields and societal demands.

Nearly three-quarters of global natural rubber production is used to produce tyres, supporting mobility around the globe. The projected increase in mobility could contribute to further expansion of rubber plantations and impact tropical ecosystems. We quantified the use of natural rubber in tyres in the European Union (EU), the corresponding land footprint, and explored drivers of tyre use using country-specific transport statistics and trade registers of rubber goods. Five percent of the world's natural rubber is consumed in tyres used in the EU, using up to a quarter of the area under rubber plantations in some producing countries. Car use is responsible for 58% of this consumption, due to car-dependent lifestyles that are associated with economic prosperity and spatial planning paradigms. While the EU's transport policy focuses on reducing dependence on fossil-fuels, cross-cutting policies are needed to address car-dependency and reduce the EU's land footprint in tropical landscapes without compromising progress towards decarbonisation. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01579-x.

Policies and research increasingly focus on the protection of ecosystem services (ESs) through priority-area conservation. Priority areas for ESs should be identified based on ES capacity and ES demand and account for the connections between areas of ES capacity and demand (flow) resulting in areas of unique demand-supply connections (flow zones). We tested ways to account for ES demand and flow zones to identify priority areas in the European Union. We mapped the capacity and demand of a global (carbon sequestration), a regional (flood regulation), and 3 local ESs (air quality, pollination, and urban leisure). We used Zonation software to identify priority areas for ESs based on 6 tests: with and without accounting for ES demand and 4 tests that accounted for the effect of ES flow zone. There was only 37.1% overlap between the 25% of priority areas that encompassed the most ESs with and without accounting for ES demand. The level of ESs maintained in the priority areas increased from 23.2% to 57.9% after accounting for ES demand, especially for ESs with a small flow zone. Accounting for flow zone had a small effect on the location of priority areas and level of ESs maintained but resulted in fewer flow zones without ES maintained relative to ignoring flow zones. Accounting for demand and flow zones enhanced representation and distribution of ESs with local to regional flow zones without large trade-offs relative to the global ES. We found that ignoring ES demand led to the identification of priority areas in remote regions where benefits from ES capacity to society were small. Incorporating ESs in conservation planning should therefore always account for ES demand to identify an effective priority network for ESs.

Policies and research increasingly focus on the protection of ecosystem services (ESs) through priority-area conservation. Priority areas for ESs should be identified based on ES capacity and ES demand and account for the connections between areas of ES capacity and demand (flow) resulting in areas of unique demand-supply connections (flow zones). We tested ways to account for ES demand and flow zones to identify priority areas in the European Union. We mapped the capacity and demand of a global (carbon sequestration), a regional (flood regulation), and 3 local ESs (air quality, pollination, and urban leisure). We used Zonation software to identify priority areas for ESs based on 6 tests: with and without accounting for ES demand and 4 tests that accounted for the effect of ES flow zone. There was only 37.1% overlap between the 25% of priority areas that encompassed the most ESs with and without accounting for ES demand. The level of ESs maintained in the priority areas increased from 23.2% to 57.9% after accounting for ES demand, especially for ESs with a small flow zone. Accounting for flow zone had a small effect on the location of priority areas and level of ESs maintained but resulted in fewer flow zones without ES maintained relative to ignoring flow zones. Accounting for demand and flow zones enhanced representation and distribution of ESs with local to regional flow zones without large trade-offs relative to the global ES. We found that ignoring ES demand led to the identification of priority areas in remote regions where benefits from ES capacity to society were small. Incorporating ESs in conservation planning should therefore always account for ES demand to identify an effective priority network for ESs. ; Peer reviewed