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In a laboratory experiment involving a complex multiperiod investment problem beset by rare adverse events, we investigated the effectiveness of a decision process intervention that involved decisions being elicited as a comprehensive system of short-term targets on three preset intermediate goal dimensions. Recent experiments have demonstrated that in such an environment, participants tend to gradually increase their exposure to risk prior to the occurrence of the first adverse event, a tendency that has been attributed to a misleading evaluation of short-term outcomes. The principle of inhibition of goal-related content following goal attainment and a heuristic model of aspiration adaptation independently predict that the formation of a comprehensive intermediate goal system will produce a stable trade-off between safety and short-term profit. We tested this hypothesis by comparing the decisions of participants required to form such targets with those of a control group allocating resources directly. Our main findings are that this intervention attenuated, if not fully removed, the tendency to increase risk exposure over time and that it improved performance. Our results serve to argue that the designability of decision procedures constitutes a degree of freedom in economic design that can be used to improve how individuals and organizations cope with complexity.

This paper's field evidence is: (1) many official sectors rapidly forget the damage of the 1982-85 exchange rate liquidity crisis and reverted to what caused that crisis, namely a closed economy clean floats perspective; and (2) the 2006-2008/9 exchange rate liquidity shock would have been more drastic but for central bank currency swaps. This evidence is bolstered by a laboratory experiment that incorporates more aspects of real world complexity and more different sorts of official and private sector agents than are feasible in econometric or algebraic investigations and employs a new central bank cooperation-conflict model of exchange rate determination , and is within an umbrella theory of Pope, namely SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory. SKAT allows for risk effects from stages omitted in normal models, including those from (a) difficulties of agents in evaluating alternatives in a complex environment in which the assumed maximization of expected utility is impossible; and (b) preference for safety and reliability is not trivialized. Our joint field plus laboratory evidence indicates that official sectors should maintain an international exchange rate oriented perspective, or better yet, a single world currency as recommended by Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the People's Bank of China. To avoid rapid forgetting of havoc from isolationist clean floats and the value of stable exchange rates, a new syllabus, as under the SKAT umbrella, is fundamental in the education of official sector members in order to furnish them with a coherent alternative intellectual framework to current university education that excludes liquidity crises.

Conclusions favorable to flexible exchange rates typically accord with expected utility theory in ignoring the costs that exchange rate uncertainty generates for governments, central banks, firms and unions in: (i) choosing among acts; and (ii) existing until learning the outcome of the chosen act. Allowing for these involves SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory, Pope (1983, 1995, 2005), Pope, Leitner and Leopold (2006). A laboratory experiment suggests that (i) and (ii) together outweigh the advantages of having a flexible exchange rate as an additional instrument for managing a country?s international competitiveness goal.

The paper traces the dangers in the closed economy perspective of a monetary policy focused on a domestic inflation goal under a clean float. Field evidence of the damage wrought from this perspective is reinforced by that from a laboratory experiment. The laboratory experiment avoids measurement errors to which econometric estimation is subject concerning omitted or inadequately proxied determinants, non-normally distributed errors, inadequate degrees of freedom, false assumptions of temporal independence and false synchronicity in decision response lags to stimuli. Our laboratory experiment also embeds a new theory of exchange rate determination involving the uncontroversial power of fully cooperating central banks to totally fix the exchange rate. The new model is within a broader theory that includes risk effects normally excluded, SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory. We use SKAT to analyse outliers in our experimental results, and indicate some new directions and foci for econometric work. Our laboratory results point to the superiority of dollarisation, currency unions, a single world money over even dirty floats that include the exchange rate as an objective in its own right.

Government expenditure can be highly variable, if used as a countercyclical instrument, or as a response to economic crises or as a means of rapidly altering other features of the economy. An alternative policy setting is to keep government expenditure changes gradual and modest. It is shown that whether a more discretionary or a more stable usage of government expenditures better attains official sector macroeconomic goals is difficult to determine theoretically, in part because of missed risk effects. But the detecting which policy better meets the official sector macroeconomic goals from analysis of historical data or inter-country comparisons suffers from confounding events and institutions. This study offers a fresh insight from laboratory experiments. Our laboratory results favour gradualism in government expenditures, ie support the advocacy of more stable government expenditures offered in Friedman (1969), in Vernengo and Rochon (2000), and in the 2006 German tax change controversy, by that country?s local government sector.

In spring 2000, the British government auctioned off licences for Third Generation mobile telecommunications services. In the preparation of the auction, two designs involving each a hybrid of an English and a sealed-bid auction were suggested by the government: a discriminatory and a uniform price variant. We report an experiment on these two designs, and also compare the results to those with a pure English auction. Both hybrids are similar in efficiency, revenue differences disappear as bidders get experienced. Compared to the discriminatory format, the pure English auction gives new entrants better chances.

In spring 2000, the British government auctioned off licences for Third Generation mobile telecommunications services. In the preparation of the auction, two designs involving each a hybrid of an English and a sealed-bid auction were suggested by the government: a discriminatory and a uniform price variant. We report an experiment on these two designs, and also compare the results to those with a pure English auction. Both hybrids are similar in efficiency, revenue differences disappear as bidders get experienced. Compared to the discriminatory format, the pure English auction gives new entrants better chances.