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We offer a general approach to predicting public compliance with emergency recommendations. It begins with a formal risk assessment of an anticipated emergency, whose parameters include factors potentially affecting and affected by behavior, as identified by social science research. Standard procedures are used to elicit scientific experts' judgments regarding these behaviors and dependencies, in the context of an emergency scenario. Their judgments are used to refine the model and scenario, enabling local emergency coordinators to predict the behavior of citizens in their area. The approach is illustrated with a case study involving a radiological dispersion device (RDD) exploded in downtown Pittsburgh, PA. Both groups of experts (national and local) predicted approximately 80–90% compliance with an order to evacuate workplaces and 60–70% compliance with an order to shelter in place at home. They predicted 10% lower compliance for people asked to shelter at the office or to evacuate their homes. They predicted 10% lower compliance should the media be skeptical, rather than supportive. They also identified preparatory policies that could improve public compliance by 20–30%. We consider the implications of these results for improving emergency risk assessment models and for anticipating and improving preparedness for disasters, using Hurricane Katrina as a further case in point.

Multiparty deliberative processes have become a popular way to increase public participation in public policy choices. Their legitimacy depends on participants' ability, first, to understand the issues facing them and, then, to form and express their own positions on them. These tasks pose significant cognitive and emotional challenges. This paper argues that decision analysis, informed by behavioral decision research, offers procedures and standards for creating responsible deliberative processes. These involve (a) formal analysis of decisions, identifying the kernel of most relevant information, (b) communication procedures, recognizing the strengths and weaknesses of lay understanding, and (c) interactive elicitation methods, helping individuals to articulate the implications of their values for specific settings. A construct validity criterion assesses the extent to which the resulting valuations are properly sensitive to decision features. Feasible extensions of traditional decision analysis create opportunities to formalize the aspirations of participants and ensure that the intellectual content of deliberative processes is worthy of the political hopes vested in them.

Studies of risk perception examine the opinions people express when they are asked, in various ways, to characterize and evaluate hazardous activities and technologies. This research aims to aid risk analysis and societal decision making by (i) improving methods for eliciting opinions about risk, (ii) providing a basis for understanding and anticipating public responses to hazards, and (iii) improving the communication of risk information among laypeople, technical experts, and policy makers.

Abstract
Although the risks of flooding demand responses by communities and societies, there are also many cost-effective actions that individuals can take. The authors examine two potential determinants of such adoption: individual predisposition to act and the impact of decision aids that emphasize the risk, the actions, both, or neither (control). Respondents are a representative sample (N = 1201) of individuals in the areas most heavily affected by Superstorm Sandy in 2012. The authors find that, in the overall sample, seeing protective actions coupled with risk information or alone produced higher rates of individuals reporting that they intended to take action preparing for future storms, compared to a control group receiving no additional information. Moreover, that occurred despite the aids reducing their perceptions of risk. The authors find that individuals who reported having taken previous action are more responsive to decision aid messages with the exception of the combined message (risk and protective actions)—which had a positive effect on those who had not acted previously, but a negative effect on those who had. These results suggest that, in communities that already are aware of their flood risks, the critical need is for authoritative, comprehensible information regarding the most feasible and cost-effective protective actions that they can take. Providing such information requires analysis to determine which actions qualify and a design process that incorporates user feedback to ensure that recommendations are easily understood and credible.

Abstract
The risk of coastal flooding is increasing due to more frequent intense storm events, rising sea levels, and more people living in flood-prone areas. Although private adaptation measures can reduce damage and risk, most people living in risk-prone areas take only a fraction of those measures voluntarily. The present study examines relationships among individuals' beliefs and actions regarding flood-related risks based on in-depth interviews and structured surveys in communities deeply affected by Superstorm Sandy. The authors find that residents recognize the risk of coastal flooding and expect it to increase, although they appear to underestimate by how much. Although interview participants typically cited climate change as affecting the risks that they face, survey respondents' acceptance of climate change was unrelated to their willingness to tolerate coastal flooding risks, their beliefs about the effectiveness of community-level mitigation measures, or their willingness to take individual actions. Respondents who reported greater social support also reported both greater tolerance for flood risks and greater confidence in community adaptation measures, suggesting an important, but complex role of personal connections in collective resilience—both keeping people in place and helping them to survive there. Thus, residents were aware of the risks and willing to undertake both personal and community actions, if convinced of their effectiveness, regardless of their acceptance of climate change.

Objective: We use signal detection theory to measure vulnerability to phishing attacks, including variation in performance across task conditions. Background: Phishing attacks are difficult to prevent with technology alone, as long as technology is operated by people. Those responsible for managing security risks must understand user decision making in order to create and evaluate potential solutions. Method: Using a scenario-based online task, we performed two experiments comparing performance on two tasks: detection, deciding whether an e-mail is phishing, and behavior, deciding what to do with an e-mail. In Experiment 1, we manipulated the order of the tasks and notification of the phishing base rate. In Experiment 2, we varied which task participants performed. Results: In both experiments, despite exhibiting cautious behavior, participants' limited detection ability left them vulnerable to phishing attacks. Greater sensitivity was positively correlated with confidence. Greater willingness to treat e-mails as legitimate was negatively correlated with perceived consequences from their actions and positively correlated with confidence. These patterns were robust across experimental conditions. Conclusion: Phishing-related decisions are sensitive to individuals' detection ability, response bias, confidence, and perception of consequences. Performance differs when people evaluate messages or respond to them but not when their task varies in other ways. Application: Based on these results, potential interventions include providing users with feedback on their abilities and information about the consequences of phishing, perhaps targeting those with the worst performance. Signal detection methods offer system operators quantitative assessments of the impacts of interventions and their residual vulnerability.

The terrorist attacks of September 11 elicited many forms of negative affect, including anger and sadness. They also elicited a search for explanations. A national field study that experimentally primed emotion evaluated how priming anger and sadness differentially evoked causal judgments about the attacks. It found that priming anger triggered more causal attributions than did priming sadness. Thus, specific emotions, rather than general negativity, shaped citizens' attributions regarding September 11. In addition to its theoretical implications, the study demonstrates a method for studying ecologically valid emotions, under conditions of experimental control, with a nationally representative sample.