Suchergebnisse

Over the last thirty years, the effects of indirect taxation changes have been analysed using comparative static general equilibrium models. We use a new method to analyse current changes in Australia's indirect taxes: dynamic computable general equilibrium modelling. Comparative static methods compare the situation in a given year (usually unspecified) with and without a policy change. The dynamic method shows the effects of a policy change through time. Comparative static methods are usually restricted to estimates of long‐run changes in allocative efficiency. The dynamic method provides information not only on efficiency but also on adjustment processes, including variations in employment. With our dynamic method, the effects of policy changes are analysed as deviations from explicit forecasts. We find that these forecasts are important for the policy results. For Australia's current set of indirect tax changes, our main conclusions are (i) the short‐run employment effects depend critically on the wage response; (ii) merchandise exporters benefit but tourism is harmed; and (iii) the long‐run welfare effectsare likely to be negative, reflecting a decline in the terms of trade and increased compliance costs.

The major macroeconomic challenge facing the Government is to reduce the unemployment rate without increasing inflation and the current account deficit. The Budget for 1992–93 gave the Government an opportunity to set out its policy for meeting this challenge.In this article we assess the Budget from a macro‐economic point of view. We ask whether the Government could have done more to address the problem of unemployment.Our analysis is in two parts. In the first, we answer the question: has the Government made believable forecasts for 1992–93, given its assumptions and the set of Budget policies. In the second part we consider whether, given the Budget assumptions, the chosen policy is the best one.To answer the first question, we used the COPS short‐run forecasting model (see the Appendix to the article) to obtain projections for 1992–93 under Budget policies and assumptions. These projections are almost identical to those of the Government, prompting a 'yes' to the first question. To answer the second question, we used our model to set out the effects of a more stimulatory budget strategy under five different sets of assumptions. These differ with respect to the exchange rate, private investment and wage rates. We find that a more stimulatory policy might help in increasing GDP and employment growth. However, nervousness in the foreign exchange market concerning the PSBR, resistance in the labour market to real wage reductions and sensitivity of private investors to increases in interest rates all combine to make the more stimulatory policy a risky one.

A review of 29 articles (from Advances in Input-Output Analysis, Polenski, K. R. & Skolka, S. [Eds], Cambridge, Mass: Ballinger, 1974) is presented. Contained are proceedings of the most recent international conference on input-output techniques. Contributions to the volume are appraised in assessing extensions of the input-output approach in the areas of short-run forecasting, regional analysis, environmental problems, income distribution, & dynamics analysis. The integration of the input-output model into more sophisticated economic models is considered. The required improvements in the specification of the trade sector, the demand side, supply constraints, & technology are discussed. Modified HA.