Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London as a Global Financial Center
In: IMF Working Papers v.Working Paper No. 07/74
In this paper, we use the extreme value theory (EVT) framework to analyze contagion risk across the international banking system. We test for the likelihood that an extreme shock affecting a major, systemic U.K. bank would also affect another large local or foreign counterpart, and vice-versa. Our results reveal several key trends among major global banks: contagion risk among banks exhibits ""home bias""; individual banks are affected differently by idiosyncratic shocks to their major counterparts; and banks are affected differently by common shocks to the real economy or financial markets. I