Suchergebnisse

The synchronization of business cycles is strictly related with the functioning conditions in the currency areas. Being a general requirement for membership in such an area, the synchronization of business cycles was probed by the view that, in any case, it would result from the very operation of the optimal currency zone. For Eurasia as a broad context, the European perspective seems to be important. For instance, the experience of a formal economic union such as the one that has existed in Europe since 1999 could be harnessed to better understand the challenges that a union of this kind might face in Eurasia, just as the one that has recently been constituted. The article considers this approach, through the analysis of the evolution of the synchronization of business cycles, as a relevant element in the (smooth) functioning of any economic and monetary union. Taking this into account, we consider a reasonably long time period (1990-2016) and a large sample of countries (50), i.e. all those integrated into some kind of formal economic union existing in this relevant geopolitical region, namely the European Union (EU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), as well as 17 non-integrated countries, as a control group. In what concerns the results, during the 1990-1998 period, the degree of business cycles synchronization was, in general, fairly low, even for countries already integrated in an economic community. The degree of synchronization of business cycles has, generally, fairly increased in the period 1999-2007, notably in European countries (not in the EU alone). Finally, in the period 2008-2016, which includes the recent global financial crisis, there was a broad decline in the synchronization of business cycles, which was not so obvious for the countries integrated in a formal economic union. In fact, it seems to be possible to conclude that belonging to a union of this kind is a crucial prerequisite for the inexistence of evidently idiosyncratic business cycles.

The adoption of a common currency by several European Union countries involved multiple social and economic costs and benefits. The Sovereign Debt Crisis that struck Europe from 2009 onwards has revealed flaws and structural weaknesses in the institutional costs of the Euro, which have contributed to a set of negative systemic reactions. The insufficient coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, coupled with the absence of central supervisory mechanisms and banking resolution, has allowed the effects of the financial sector crisis to spread to the rest of the economy and between the various Eurozone countries. In this context, different scenarios have been advanced on the future of this monetary zone, which is now at a crossroads and facing challenges that require adequate socio-economic and political-institutional responses. The chapter presents and discusses the feasibility of some of the scenarios with which the Eurozone is confronted, based on the trends and fundamentals that anchor the stability of a monetary union.In particular, the conditions necessary for the favorable scenario to be presented as the most likely scenario are discussed.

Regarding the EU policies of territorial cohesion is common to assume that, having the same been successful (in Portugal), regional disparities decreased. The purpose of this article is to assess the veracity of this allegation, for that considering the values of employment and unemployment rates by municipalities, determined in the last two censuses held in Portugal, i.e. 2001 and 2011. In doing so, spatial econometric techniques are used, namely local indicators of spatial association and spatial clusters, in order to better understand the eventual process of spatial convergence that may have occurred in Portugal in that period. The results point towards a spatial convergence of employment rates (both in total and by genres) and also of female unemployment rates but a spatial divergence of male unemployment rates. ; The last two authors are also pleased to acknowledge financial support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia and FEDER/COMPETE (grant UID/ECO/04007/2013).

The risk perceived by investors is crucial in the decision to invest, in particular when it concerns a foreign country. The investment risk associated is a multi-faceted element given that it reflects many aspects that are relevant to (foreign) investors, such as the level of transparency, corruption, rule of law, governance, etc. In this paper we consider the level of economic freedom, as provided by the "Heritage Foundation", for the most recent years, in order to analyse how is this measure of risk related to the inward foreign direct investment performance index, as provided by the UNCTAD. Given the subjectivity of risk an appropriate methodology consists on using fuzzy logic clustering, which is applied in the paper in order to verify how different the MENA region is from the set of EU-member states. The results show that economic freedom and inward FDI are positively associated, in particular in the cluster of countries that present a higher economic freedom. Of particular interest is the result that some MENA countries belong to the same cluster of most of the EU-countries.

Regarding the EU policies of territorial cohesion is common to assume that, having the same been successful (in Portugal), regional disparities decreased. The purpose of this article is to assess the veracity of this allegation, for that considering the values of employment and unemployment rates by municipalities, determined in the last two censuses held in Portugal, i.e. 2001 and 2011. In doing so, spatial econometric techniques are used, namely local indicators of spatial association and spatial clusters, in order to better understand the eventual process of spatial convergence that may have occurred in Portugal in that period. The results point towards a spatial convergence of employment rates (both in total and by genres) and also of female unemployment rates but a spatial divergence of male unemployment rates. ; peer-reviewed

Regarding the EU policies of territorial cohesion is common to assume that, having the same been successful (in Portugal), regional disparities decreased. The purpose of this article is to assess the veracity of this allegation, for that considering the values of employment and unemployment rates by municipalities, determined in the last two censuses held in Portugal, i.e. 2001 and 2011. In doing so, spatial econometric techniques are used, namely local indicators of spatial association and spatial clusters, in order to better understand the eventual process of spatial convergence that may have occurred in Portugal in that period. The results point towards a spatial convergence of employment rates (both in total and by genres) and also of female unemployment rates but a spatial divergence of male unemployment rates.

O sistema de ensino superior português conheceu alterações profundas nas últimas décadas, dando origem a significativas mudanças socioeconómicas. Em geral, os países/territórios mais desenvolvidos são aqueles onde os níveis de escolaridade são também mais elevados. E, em períodos de crise económica, quando o acesso ao mercado de trabalho se torna mais difícil, a prossecução de estudos superiores deveria ser a escolha de um maior número de jovens. Contudo, muitas famílias podem ter maior dificuldade em manter os filhos no sistema educativo, devido ao facto de poderem ser vítimas também do desemprego, na sequência da estagnação/recessão económica. Neste estudo, propomo-nos verificar a existência de indícios dos efeitos da crise económica na procura e na frequência de ensino superior, aplicando metodologia econométrica. A análise de sincronização, entre a evolução do ciclo económico e as candidaturas ao ensino superior, a nível nacional, confirma a sua correlação positiva, em particular no ensino politécnico. Em termos regionais, considerando o exemplo da região dos Açores, também essa correlação positiva se confirma.

The world is currently witnessing the third wave of globalisation, certainly the most widely debated and fiercely contested. The first wave, known as the 'Age of Exploration', began with the Portuguese discovery of the sea route to India, in 1498, followed by the exploration of the American continent in the two subsequent centuries. The second wave took place in the nineteenth century, with the multiplication of international relations, much reinforced by unprecedented improvements in means of communication and transportation. By then, dozens of sophisticated stock and bond exchanges existed in many countries and financial integration attained levels comparable to those observed today. European investors were advised to internationally diversify financial applications, and English, French, Dutch and German capital flew in torrents to finance infrastructures in Russia, Asia, Africa and America. Most of these links were broken with the First World War, and subsequent episodes such as the Russian Revolution and the Great Depression contributed to maintain some degree of suspicion over international economic relations. The third wave of globalisation did not start until much later in the twentieth century, fostered by the coordinated action of politicians and economists. Naturally, the globalisation phenomenon has been addressed from a variety of distinct perspectives. It was initially a matter for philosophers, concerned with the consequences of the annihilation of space, resulting from the development of the means of transportation, especially with the expansion of railways. Later, social scientists broadened the analysis and provided more comprehensive assessments of the causes and effects of increased cross border relations. More recently, the economic perspective has gained prominence, to the point of being currently common to confound the concept of globalisation with that of economic globalisation. In economic terms, globalisation comprises the international flow of goods, services, capital and labour and has been greatly enhanced by both technological progress and a political will to overcome the barriers imposed by national boundaries. With uneven positive and negative effects across countries and societies, the globalisation of economic activities is a fertile source of new problems and challenges for decision makers, academics and practitioners. In this book, some of the new challenges posed by globalisation to different research areas of the economic science are addressed. Attention is mainly focused on the implications of free trade and financial integration, but political consequences are also examined. The contributions of different authors have been selected from those presented and discussed at the 10th INFER International Conference, held in Évora, Portugal, coincidently close to the birth place of Vasco da Gama, the intrepid promoter of the first globalisation wave.

The increasing concern with climate change is one of the main issues of our time, and thus we aim to theoretically and mathematically analyse its causes. However our approach follows a different stream of thought, presenting the reasoning and decision-making processes between technical and moral solutions. We have resorted to game theory models in order to demonstrate cooperative and non-cooperative scenarios, ranging from the traditional to the evolutionary within game theory. In doing so we are able to glimpse the development of modern society and a paradigm shift regarding human control over nature and to what extent it is harmful to the sustainability of our environment and the survival of future generations. Merging different fields of knowledge, we present a theoretical-philosophical approach, combined with empirical-mathematical solutions taking into account the agent-based behaviour guided blindly by instrumental rationality.