Holy Trinities, Rivalry Termination, and Conflict
In: International interactions: empirical and theoretical research in international relations, Band 28, Heft 4, S. 325-353
ISSN: 1547-7444
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In: International interactions: empirical and theoretical research in international relations, Band 28, Heft 4, S. 325-353
ISSN: 1547-7444
In: International interactions: empirical and theoretical research in international relations, Band 28, Heft 4, S. 325-354
ISSN: 0305-0629
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 52, Heft 3, S. 343-374
ISSN: 1552-8766
Do public opinion dynamics play an important role in understanding conflict trajectories between democratic governments and other rival groups? The authors interpret several theories of opinion dynamics as competing clusters of contemporaneous causal links connoting reciprocity, accountability, and credibility. They translate these clusters into four distinct Bayesian structural time series models fit to events data from the Israeli—Palestinian conflict with variables for U.S. intervention and Jewish public opinion about prospects for peace. A credibility model, allowing Jewish public opinion to influence U.S., Palestinian, and Israeli behavior within a given month, fits best. More pacific Israeli opinion leads to more immediate Palestinian hostility toward Israelis. This response's direction suggests a negative feedback mechanism in which low-level conflict is maintained and momentum toward either all-out war or dramatic peace is slowed. In addition, a forecasting model including Jewish public opinion is shown to forecast ex ante better than a model without this variable.
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In: Strategic Rivalries in World Politics, S. 275-290