Suchergebnisse

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union has had disruptive effects on international trade. As part of its 'Global Britain' strategy, in the wake of Brexit, the UK is pursuing a series of Free Trade Agreements with countries around the world, including Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and possibly the United States. Closer to home, the UK is under mounting pressure to dissuade Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales from seeking independence to regain the severed ties with the EU. We analyze the economic consequences of these scenarios with a state-of-the-art structural gravity model for major economies around the world. We find that 'Global Britain' yields insufficient trade creation to compensate for Brexit-induced trade losses. Our results also reveal that independence from the UK in itself would inflict greater post-Brexit economic harm on the devolved nations of Great Britain. Nevertheless, these effects could be entirely removed for each of these devolved nations conditional on a renewed trade deal with the EU.

International audience ; In January 2006 the French Committee on Dams and Reservoirs – FrCOLD - issued provisional guidelines for structural safety of gravity dams. It was the first attempt to produce a semi-probabilistic limit-state method for the design of hydraulic works, in a format similar to the Eurocodes. After 5 years of a progressive implementation of those guidelines, FrCOLD decided to produce an upgraded and enriched version of the guidelines. This task was undertaken beginning of 2011 and fulfilled mid-2012 through a FrCOLD project conducted by a working group representing the French engineering industry and related government agencies. This paper accounts for the work done over one and half year, discloses the feedback gained from the recent engineering practice and details the structure and the content of the document to be published end of 2012. It is arranged according to the limit-state format: design situations and associated loading combinations, geological model, characteristic trength values, limit states and corresponding verification analyses. With other guidelines already issued (Structural safety of embankment dams and dikes, Hydraulic works and seismic safety) or under production (Safety of dams during floods), the major aspects of dam safety will be covered, allowing for introducing the main requirements for dam safety in French regulations in a very near future.

This paper presents two empirical tools to quantify the impacts of tariff changes on bilateral trade and welfare. Both tools are rooted in the structural gravity literature. The first tool estimates the impact of tariff changes on bilateral trade for 5,020 products in a partial equilibrium framework. The second tool quantifies the impact on bilateral aggregate trade in a general equilibrium setup, allowing estimates of trade reallocation and welfare changes. These tools are used to estimate the impact of tariff changes affecting Armenia, including (i) the alignment with the external tariff of the Eurasian Economic Union, (ii) free trade agreements between the Eurasian Economic Union, and other economies-Iran and the People's Republic of China, and (iii) the loss of beneficiary status for the Generalised Scheme of Preferences of the European Union.

Several governments worldwide aim at fostering agricultural productivity growth by providing investment support. However, the policy's effect on trade for middle- and low-income countries has not been analyzed so far. This paper analyzes the impact of agricultural policies (credit subsidies and tariffs) on agricultural trade flows by modifying a Melitz-type structural gravity model for a small and open economy. According to the theory, trade flows are expected to increase with credit subsidies and decrease with partners' applied tariff rates. We analyze bilateral agricultural trade flows between Kyrgyzstan and its 69 trading partners from 2007 to 2018 to test our theoretical findings. Applying the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator, we find that credit subsidies effectively increase international trade flows while applied tariffs imposed on agricultural products reduce Kyrgyzstan's export substantially. These results can be applied to similar economies with publicly available data where small budgetary efforts drive trade expansion.

The center of gravity concept is one of contemporary military science's fundamental yet highly controversial pillars. Although, over the past decades, the center of gravity has become the modus operandi of the planning and conduct of (major) military operations in a number of armed forces, the concept remains insufficiently understood and is often poorly applied in practice. In this light, we have sought to improve its theoretical comprehension by identifying the conceptual dimensions that the most influential authors commonly highlight. Using the structural method for the concept analysis, we have identified seven entities frequently understood as the potential centers of gravity. These are: (1) fielded military, (2) leadership, (3) industry, (4) infrastructure, (5) population, (6) public opinion, and (7) ideology.

Abstract.  A key element missing from the structural gravity literature is an examination of the implied general equilibrium. By design the gravity equation is adept at predicting bilateral trade flows. To make inferences beyond trade flows, however, the theoretic models should be consistent with other observables. Structural econometric estimates from Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) allow us to evaluate their proposed general equilibrium along several dimensions. We find that their gravity model predicts too large a difference between consumer and producer prices; excessive variation in the geographic distribution of consumer price indices; and an exceptionally large portion of output devoted to overcoming trade frictions. Under plausible parameterizations of the model at least 50% of output 'melts' in transit. JEL classification: F10

AbstractWe study the effects of the Dominican Republic–Central America–United States Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR), signed in 2004, on the trade flows of its member states. Relying on the structural gravity model of trade framework, we find evidence of both increases and decreases in members' bilateral trade, but also of significant differences in these effects depending on the direction of trade and the trading members. Using a counterfactual analysis, we are also able to measure the general equilibrium effects of CAFTA-DR, finding that it has, in general, increased both total exports and income levels for El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. However, we also find evidence of sizable trade diversion and welfare losses for Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic.