Liquidity problems lie at the heart of crises on financial markets as demonstrated in this paper by detailed descriptions of the stock market crash in 1987, the LTCM-crisis in 1998 and the financial market consequences of 11 September 2001. The events also demonstrate that modern central banks, in particular the U.S. Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan, provided emergency liquidity to limit the negative effects of such crises. However, the anecdotal and empirical evidence from the three crises shows that such emergency liquidity assistance implies risks to goods price stability if it is not focused on the interbank market and quickly sterilised.
We test the hypothesis that the government bond markets in the Eurozone are more fragile and more susceptible to self-fulfilling liquidity crises than in stand-alone countries. We find evidence that a significant part of the surge in the spreads of the PIGS countries in the Eurozone during 2010-11 was disconnected from underlying increases in the debt to GDP ratios and fiscal space variables, and was the result of negative self-fulfilling market sentiments that became very strong since the end of 2010. We argue that this can drive member countries of the Eurozone into bad equilibria. We also find evidence that after years of neglecting high government debt, investors became increasingly worried about this in the Eurozone, and reacted by raising the spreads. No such worries developed in stand-alone countries despite the fact that debt to GDP ratios and fiscal space variables were equally high and increasing in these countries.
The subject of our study is the trading infrastructure of government securities markets, which has undergone fundamental changes driven by the appearance of non-exchange electronic platforms and the rapid rise of their share in the trading volume of developed markets. The summary of the relevant literature indicates that improved trading transparency clearly increases the efficiency of the market (its role in price discovery). Its effect on market liquidity, however, is less clear-cut. While the loss of anonymity most likely decreases liquidity, transparency on the quantity and price of concluded transactions enhances liquidity. The emergence of electronic trading on developed government securities markets has not changed the fundamental structure of trading, which continues to take place in two segments: between dealers (B2B) and between dealers and clients (B2C). There is, however, no interbank trading platform on the Hungarian government securities market, although data vendors and other platforms serving clients have sprung up. Nonetheless, more than 90 per cent of trading takes place through traditional OTC channels. Consequently, actors which are interested in market processes and prices, but do not actively trade on the Hungarian market have trouble accessing high-standard, quasi-real-time price information. The MiFID initiative - launched at the European level - may contribute to improving the Hungarian market's transparency by engendering the regulation of the bond market similar to that of the equity market. Introduction of the euro in Hungary will fundamentally change the country's market structure. The sovereign debt manager's leeway will increase, and the key direct actors on the government securities market are expected to be the major international actors, which are interested in the centralisation of government securities trading by currencies. Based on the broad electronisation of the euro-denominated government securities market, it is likely that electronic platforms will also gain ground on the Hungarian market, following the introduction of the single currency at the latest.
This paper proposes new metrics for the process of price discovery on the main electronic trading platform for euro-denominated government securities. Analysing price data on daily transactions for 107 bonds over a period of twenty-seven months, we find a greater degree of price leadership of the dominant market when our measures (as opposed to the traditional price discovery metrics) are used. We also present unambiguous evidence that a market's contribution to price discovery is crucially affected by the level of trading activity. The implications of these empirical findings are discussed in the light of the debate about the possible restructuring of the regulatory framework for the Treasury bond market in Europe.
This paper proposes new metrics for the process of price discovery on the main electronic trading platform for euro-denominated government securities. Analysing price data on daily transactions for 107 bonds over a period of twenty-seven months, we find a greater degree of price leadership of the dominant market when our measures (as opposed to the traditional price discovery metrics) are used. We also present unambiguous evidence that a market's contribution to price discovery is crucially affected by the level of trading activity. The implications of these empirical findings are discussed in the light of the debate about the possible restructuring of the regulatory framework for the Treasury bond market in Europe.
The subject of our study is market liquidity, which is an important element of the functioning of financial markets. Adequate liquidity of markets is of great significance from the point of view of both market participants and the central bank. On the one hand, of all market segments an examination was made of the domestic forint-euro spot FX market, which is of key importance due to the openness of the country's economy. On the other hand, an analysis was made of the market of forint denominated government bonds, which plays a crucial role in the transmission of the central bank's interest rate policy. [.]
The paper presents a comprehensive data set of all bonds issued by the sixteen German states (L¨ander) since 1992. It thus provides a complete picture of a capital market comparable in size to funds raised in the German fixed income market for corporations. The quantitative analysis reveals that L¨ander follow different issuing strategies: while some concentrate to a greater extend on large issues or issue joint bonds with other L¨ander (Jumbos), others rely more on comparatively small but frequent issues. Moreover, some L¨ander issue a significant volume-share of their bonds in foreign currencies. Suitable bonds are used to compute yields for the respective L¨ander at a daily frequency. In addition, we construct a measure of liquidity based on the standard deviation of yields of those bonds that are used to compute the average yield.
In our paper we present the most important characteristics of the forint interest rate swap market, as well as examine the determinants and the information content of the forint interest rate swap spreads. The turnover of the forint interest rate swap market has grown dynamically in recent years, and now it may reach, or even exceed, the turnover of the government bond market. Due to the hedging activity of interest rate swap market makers, there is a close linkage between the forint interest rate swap market and the government bond market. In terms of investors, the interest rate swap and government bond markets are strongly segmented. Consequently, the spillover from one market segment to the other is not perfect. Our analyses suggest that long-term forint interest rate swap spreads are exposed to the common impact of several factors. The strongest effects are attributed to government bond purchases by residents, the Maggie A spread, the slope of the yield curve and the forint/euro forward yield spread. In the developments of swap spreads, the impact of those trading strategies employing interest rate swaps can be detected. These are widespread in the domestic market, as is confirmed by anecdotal information. The results indicate that in certain cases the swap yields, while at other times the government bond yields carry additional information about long-term yield expectations. The values of the 5-year HUF/EUR forward spread 5 years ahead calculated from the swap yields and from the treasury yields differ markedly, and this difference is driven practically by the same factors that influence the interest rate swap spreads.
Secondary markets for long-term assets might be illiquid due to adverse selection. In a model in which moral hazard is confined to project initiation, I find that: (1) when agents expect a liquidity dry-up on such markets, they optimally choose to self-insure through the hoarding of non-productive but liquid assets; (2) such a response has negative externalities as it reduces ex-post market participation, which worsens adverse selection and dries up market liquidity; (3) liquidity dry-ups are Pareto inefficient equilibria; (4) the Government can rule them out. Additionally, when agents face idiosyncratic, privately known, illiquidity shocks, I show that: (5) it increases market liquidity; (6) illiquid agents are better-off when they can credibly disclose their liquidity position, but transparency has an ambiguous effect on risk-sharing possibilities.
Art. 17 of the Kyoto Protocol defines International Emissions Trading exclusively on country level, sub-national entities like industrial installations or households are not included initially. However, there are some arguments for such an expansion, of which the most important ones are a significant increase of the overall efficiency of the trading system as well as an increase of market liquidity. In the first part of this paper, the options for an inclusion of sub-national entities are analysed, concluding that AAUs should not be allocated to participants directly. Instead, there are several options how those entities can be included in International Emissions Trading as defined in the Kyoto-Protocol in an indirect way. The second part of the paper elaborates on the design options of national trading systems. All governments planning to introduce a domestic emissions trading scheme covering entities need to consider several design parameters, e.g. the characteristics of emission targets, participants of the trading scheme, participation mode, covered gases, non-compliance provisions, etc. We analyse and evaluate the options for each of those aspects, having in mind that the design of a trading system must assure its environmental integrity and keep transaction costs low at the same time. ; Der ?Internationale Emissionshandel (IET)? wird nach Artikel 17 des Kyoto-Protokolls zunächst ausschließlich auf Staatenebene definiert. Es sprechen jedoch einige Gründe dafür, den Emissionshandel auch auf nicht staatliche Einheiten, wie z.B. industrielle und/oder private Emittenten auszudehnen. Die wesentlichen Vorteile sind die zu erwartende deutliche Erhöhung der Effizienz des Handelssystems sowie der Marktliquidität. Wir analysieren die verschiedenen Möglichkeiten einer derartigen Ausweitung des Emissionshandels. Eine direkte Einbeziehung subnationaler Einheiten durch die Zuteilung von Emissionsrechten nach dem Kyoto-Protokoll (AAUs) in den IET erscheint nicht empfehlenswert. Statt dessen bestehen verschiedene Möglichkeiten der indirekten Einbeziehung, bei der nationale ?Währungen? für Emissionsrechte ausgegeben werden. Zudem werden die verschiedenen Ausgestaltungsparameter analysiert, die bei der Einrichtung eines (inter-)nationalen Emissionshandelssystems berücksichtigt werden müssen. Dies sind u.a. die Definition von Teilnehmerkreis, Teilnahmemodus, Art der Emissionsziele, Einbeziehung von Gasen, Einbeziehung der projektbasierten Mechanismen sowie Strafregelungen. Die einzelnen Ausgestaltungsoptionen werden evaluiert, insbesondere hinsichtlich der grundlegenden Ziele des Emissionshandels: Sicherung der ökologischen Integrität bei Minimierung der entstehenden Kosten.
This paper provides a framework to analyse emergency liquidity assistance of central banks on financial markets in response to aggregate and idiosyncratic liquidity shocks. The model combines the microeconomic view of liquidity as the ability to sell assets quickly and at low costs and the macroeconomic view of liquidity as a medium of exchange that influences the aggregate price level of goods. The central bank faces a trade-off between limiting the negative output effects of dramatic asset price declines and more inflation. Furthermore, the anticipation of central bank intervention causes a moral hazard effect with investors. This gives rise to the possibility of an optimal monetary policy under commitment.
We analyze the term structure of illiquidity premiums as the difference between the yield curves of two major bond segments that are both government guaranteed but differ in their liquidity. We show that its characteristics strongly depend on the economic situation. In crisis times, illiquidity premiums are higher with the largest increase for short-term maturities. Moreover, their reaction to changes in fundamentals is only significant during crises: premiums of all maturities depend on inventory risk, short maturities are highly sensitive to liquidity preferences (flight-to-liquidity). Therefore, calibrating risk management models in normal times underestimates illiquidity risk and misjudges term structure effects.
Turmoil in financial markets causes reflection. Is monetary policy conducted in the most efficient way? Are regulatory and supervisory arrangements adequate when market volatility increases and financial institutions come under stress? In the present SUERF Study, we have collected the reflections by an outstanding group of top officials, researchers and observers. The editors are proud to be able to present their joint insights to SUERF readers. The papers were presented at the 27th SUERF Colloquium in Munich in June 2008: New trends in asset management: Exploring the implications.
